ESAT Radio 01 Thu Dec 2016

ADDIS STANDARD NEWS:

Addis Abeba Dec. 1/2016 – Security forces implementing Ethiopia’s six-month State of Emergency have last night detained prominent opposition party leader Dr. Merera Gudina, Chairman of the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC), upon his arrival at Bole International Airport.  

Details of what transpired at the airport are sketchy, but sources told Addis Standard that Dr. Merera was first taken by security forces who have identified themselves as members of the command post overseeing the State of emergency at around 7:30 PM soon after his arrival at the airport. He was then taken to his residence along with several members of his family who came to pick him from the airport. “Merera’s residence was locked from all direction by heavily armed men,” a family member who wishes to remain anonymous for fear of his own security told Addis Standard via phone. “It took security forces several hours before they took him to Ma’ekelawi prison after mid-night. No one was allowed in and out of his residence and no one knows what was happening inside,” our source said.

This morning family members were prohibited access to Dr. Merera at the Ma’ekelawi prison located at the heart of the Piassa. One member told Addis Standard that prison guards have denied Dr. Merera’s presence inside the prison, a practice commonly exercised by security guards. “We know that he was taken inside shortly after midnight but we can’t communicate with him,” she said.

Other sources say after his arrival at the airport Dr. Merera first went to his residence with his family members and claim that security forces have only arrived at his residence a few hours later.  But several people contacted by Addis Standard couldn’t substantiate this claim and say he arrived at his residence after he was already detained by security forces upon his arrival at the airport.

Dr. Merera was touring Europe for more than three weeks during which he delivered a speech to members of the European Union Parliament. He appeared at the EU parliament to testify on current political crisis and human rights violations in Ethiopia. Dr. Merera was joined by two other prominent invitees: Dr. Berhanu Nega, leader of the opposition Patriotic Ginbot 7 (G7), which is designated by Ethiopia’s ruling party dominated parliament as a “terrorist organization” and is now actively fighting the regime from the northern part of the country, and athlete Feyisa Lilessa, Olympic silver medalist who gave a significant impetus to a year-long Oromo protest that gripped Ethiopia when he crossed his arms in an X sign at the finishing line.

Pro-government activists were hostilely calling for the arrest of Dr. Merera after pictures of him sitting next to Dr. Berhanu and athlete Feyissa have circulated on Ethiopian social media sites. They claimed that Dr. Merera violated both Ethiopia’s infamous Anti-Terrorism Proclamation (ATP), and the six-month sweeping State of Emergency law by appearing alongside a leader whose party is designated as a terrorist organization.

Our attempts to reach Dr. Negeri Lencho, newly appointed government communication affairs minister, were unsuccessful. However, Dr. Negeri told The Washington Post that “he had no information about the arrest.”

Dr. Merera’s arrest is not surprising, it “signifies the government’s particular heavy-handedness targeting the Oromo people and opposition political parties representing the Oromo,” said a political science lecturer at the Addis Abeba University and Dr. Merera’s longtime friend. “The story of all prominent Oromo opposition party leaders are the same: they all end up jailed,” said the lecturer who wishes to remain anonymous.

Currently, several members of OFC including Bekele Gerba and Dejene Fita Geleta, first secretary general and secretary general respectively are facing terrorism charges. Bekele Gerba was arrested for the second time since 2011, during which he was sentenced to eight years in prison suspected of allegedly belonging to the banned Oromo Liberation Front (OLF). Bekele spent almost four of the eight years before he was freed in April 2015 only to be re-arrested in Nov. 2015 following a wave of protests by the Oromo.

The other notable opposition figure serving eight years prison term is Olbana Lelisa, who was arrested along with Bekele Gerba in 2011. Olbana was a high-ranking leader of the Oromo People’s Congress Party (OPC), which has since merged with the Oromo Federal Democratic Movement (OFDM) to form OFC, which is led by Dr. Merera.

Dr. Merera, an associate professor of Political science at the Addis Abeba University before his illegal dismissal last year, first founded the opposition party Oromo National Congress (ONC) as far back as 1996. He has been actively engaged in opposition politics in the country and was once an elected member of parliament. He is a well-known critic of the ruling party.

Fidel Castro’s Legacy in the Eyes of Ethiopians – SBS Amharic

Ethiopia has disclosed that it will back the candidature of Kenya’s foreign affairs chief in the race to elect the new chairperson of the African Union (AU).

by Abdur Rahman Alfa Shaban

Kenya’s topmost diplomat Ambassador Dr. Amina C. Mohamed is one of five candidates hoping to be elected to replace outgoing chair, Dr Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma. Dlamini-Zuma accepted to stay on as chair after the heads of state failed to choose her successor during a summit in Kigali, Rwanda.

She launched her campaign for the post in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa on Tuesday. On Wednesday she met with the Ethiopian Premier, Hailemariam Desalegn, to hand him a message from Kenyan President. She also thanked the premier for supporting her candidature for upcoming elections.

Called on my Ethiopian colleague Dr Workneh Gebeyehu today in Addis Ababa; discussed bilateral and regional issues. Present, PS Minica Juma. pic.twitter.com/nCXV12QSzQ

— AMB:Amina Mohamed (@AMB_A_Mohammed) November 30, 2016

What is in the package of the Kenyan candidate?

She told reporters that in her race to AUC Chairperson she is paying due attention to unleash Africa’s potentials for industrialization, to eradicate poverty, and to create job for Africa’s youth which are stipulated under Agenda 2063.

Enabling a free movement of goods, services and capital from one corner of Africa to the other are also a key priority in her campaign, she added. According to Mohamed, ensuring the benefits of African youth will be her ultimate goal if she wins the chair as leader of the continental body.

The two sides also held talks on peace and stability concerns of the Horn of Africa and ways of strengthening Ethiopia-Kenyan economic partnership. The two neighbours are leaders in the region and are actively engaged in military operations against Somalia’s al-Shabaab insurgents.

Upcoming town hall debate and the five contenders

The five aspirants for the AUC position will face off in a debate on December 9 ahead of their election in January 2017. The Commission sent out invitation last week for the debate which will be in the town hall format at the Union’s headquarters in Ethiopia’s capital, Addis Ababa.

The five candidates for the AUC Chairperson position include:

• Botswana’s foreign minister Pelonomi Venson-Moitoi
• Chad’s foreign minister Moussa Faki Mahamat
• Equatorial Guinea’s foreign minister Agapito Mba Mokuy
• Kenya’s foreign minister Amina Mohamed and
• Senegal’s Bathily Abdoulaye who is the special UN envoy for Central Africa.

The South African Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma has been the AU chairperson since 2012 and did not apply for a second term during the earlier nomination process.

The new elections will be held during the 28th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government from January 30 to 31 at the AU Headquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Ethiopian troops killed 15 armed rebels crossing from Ethiopia’s arch-rival Eritrea over the weekend, and captured more than 70, an official said on Thursday. Foreign Ministry spokesman Tewolde Mulugeta said the insurgents were members of Ginbot 7, which Ethiopia says is backed by Eritrea. He said 115 insurgents had entered Ethiopia’s Tigray region on Saturday and then been attacked by soldiers and local militiamen: “Of the 115, our troops killed 15 rebels and captured 73.”

Eritrean government officials were not immediately available for comment; they routinely dismiss allegations by Ethiopia, which they in turn accuse of seeking to destabilise the region. The two nations often accuse one another of supporting insurgencies in the other country a legacy of years of bitter conflict that has left them with a disputed border.

Eritrea, a former province of Ethiopia, won independence in 1991 after 30 years of war. Seven years later, hostilities erupted again, over the border, and around 70,000 people were killed. A peace agreement was signed in 2000, but enmity continues. Ethiopia wants a full negotiated settlement and Eritrea demands the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from a disputed town. In July, the two countries traded accusations of aggression along their disputed frontier, and each claimed to have repulsed the other and inflicted heavy casualties.

• By GILLIAN MOHNEY

Dec 1, 2016, 2:20 PM ETIt has been 35 years since researchers from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention first reported on a mysterious illness that was infecting and killing otherwise healthy young men.

The CDC report from 1981 was the first time that what we now know as AIDS was mentioned in medical literature.

In those early days, little was known about the disease. Today researchers understand a great deal about how HIV, the human immunodeficiency virus, attacks the immune system and leads to AIDS. While treatment, prevention and education have saved many lives, researchers continue to fight the spread of HIV and AIDS and find a cure.

Jens Dresling/Polfoto via AP Photo

Since that CDC report was published, AIDS has claimed 35 million lives globally, according to the the World Health Organization.

Anti-retroviral medications have turned HIV infection from a death sentence into a chronic manageable illness for many. However, fewer than half the people worldwide with HIV get treatment needed to prolong their lives.

Approximately 1.1 million people died worldwide from the disease last year, according to the United Nations.

A huge problem in the fight against HIV is that people can go years without exhibiting symptoms. As a result, 12.5 percent of people in the U.S. with HIV are unaware they are infected, the CDC estimates.

Globally, that figure jumps to 40 percent, according to the WHO.

To combat that problem, the WHO announced this week new guidelines to encourage self-testing for HIV.

People can now test for the virus via a simple oral swab or by pricking a finger in the privacy of their homes.

“Millions of people with HIV are still missing out on lifesaving treatment, which can also prevent HIV transmission to others,” Dr. Margaret Chan, the WHO’s director-general, said in a statement. “HIV self-testing should open the door for many more people to know their HIV status and find out how to get treatment and access prevention services.”

In the U.S., gay and bisexual men of color are at a higher risk of contracting HIV than the overall population. The lifetime infection risk for black men who are gay or bisexual is 1 in 2, according to the CDC.

Worldwide, more women than men are infected with the disease. HIV is the No. 1 killer of women ages 15 to 49, according to the American Foundation for AIDS Research.

Adolescents are also particularly vulnerable. According to one report, 41,000 people ages 10 to 19 died of the disease in 2015.

“The world has made tremendous progress in the global effort to end AIDS, but the fight is far from over, especially for children and adolescents,” UNICEF Executive Director Anthony Lake said in a statement today. “Every two minutes, another adolescent — most likely a girl — will be infected with HIV. If we want to end AIDS, we need to recapture the urgency this issue deserves — and redouble our efforts to reach every child and every adolescent.”

View image on Twitter

While there are still no cures for AIDS or vaccines proven to prevent HIV infection, there are multiple experimental vaccines in the early stages of testing around the globe. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), a daily preventive medication regimen, is a way for uninfected people to greatly reduce their risk, and post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) is a treatment that can significantly cut the chance of HIV infection in people within 72 hours of exposure.

Additionally, scientists are examining if gene therapy could someday lead to a functional cure for HIV infection.

(A Brief Remark on the Article of Dr. Tedla Woldeyohannes, Paulos Milikiyas)

While Dr Tedla’s skepticism on the trend of the Oromo Movement might be a genuine question that any other Ethiopian would ask, I think that Dr. Tedla seemed to have pushed Oromo elites to incline towards developing Oromo independence. Moreover, Dr.Tedla’s mention of Emperor Minelik II needs elaboration.

The era of Menelik was the era of nation building in most of the world especially in Europe. For example, Prussia under Otto von Bismark was consolidating fragile German states. Italy under Gari Baldi consolidated was into one country from thirteen petty states. There was no nation that had not been able to unite as a strong nation without classical military unification or reunification. After consolidating their nation states, powerful European nations of the era met in Belgium in 1884, 12 years before the battle of Adwa, to make a covenant as to how to make a scramble for Africa. So, France, Great Britain and Italy were racing on East Africa, especially Ethiopia. First an English General Hewett made a mischievous Adwa agreement with Emperor Yohannes IV in the same year by which Italy had to return Massawa for free use by Ethiopia and Egyptian troops had to be given free passage to the Sudan that was under the supremacy of Great Britain. After the troops passed, Massaw was not given back to Ethiopia but to Italy. The betrayal by the English made on Emperor Yohannes had other consequences also. The free passage of Egyptian troops to the Sudan created animosity between the leadership of Emperor Yohannes IV and the Sudanese causing the rise of Durbush power that fought the Emperor at Metema and the loss of  his head and crown on one side, and the consequent Italian occupation of Northern part of Ethiopia then called Eritrea. That was not all. Under the tutelage of the English colonial scheme, Egypt armed and appointed Amir Abdallah on Harar to make him their satellite. Great Britain’s colonial occupation had encircled Ethiopia from the west and south as it had occupied Kenya, too while Somalia fell under Italy’s share. The three powers were aggressively racing to occupy the rest of Ethiopia.

Any genuine person with rational thinking could imagine the fate of Ethiopia if a leadership from Ethiopia could not have resisted that scramble. So, what was the role of Emperor Menelik? What were the alternatives?

If a powerful leadership could not have unified Ethiopians by hook or crook, this country that existed since immemorial could have disintegrated into any colonial boundaries. These big nations and nationalities like Amhara and Oromo would have different fates. It was Emperor Menelik who developed the recognition of the Oromo people by forming petty states into a whole Wellega, Keffa, for example, and the union of Mecha and Tulama, If Emperor Menelik and Ras Gobana did not do this history, the fate of most unsettled Oromo pastorals could have been similar to the Maasai nomads.

If not that of Menelik, and if there was another capable leadership, there is not question that it should have saved the survival of the country through the same method that Emperor Menelik used as unified nations could survive in other parts of the World.

Why do Oromo elites take Emperor Menelik as an occupier just like a colonizer? Emperor Menelik consolidated not only scattered Oromo pastorals into provinces that were governed by their own balabats whose system had extended until 1974 revolution, but his leadership had annexed Gojjam, Begemdir/Gondar, Guragie, Wolayita, Sidama, Keffa, Yemma, Damot, Afar, Tigre, Hadiya, and all other regions that reunited Ethiopia. If Gobana had been the Emperor and did the same, what would this elites think? If Gobana had the role of being the Emperor of Ethiopia or another able leadership had the capability to do so, one would have done the same reunification and would have spoken the same Ethiopian national language since the Yeju Oromo leaders used to speak the same national language about 300 years ago. While everybody knows that Afan Amara could not and cannot be racist as English, French, or Arab language that are used simply as medium of communication.  At times these elites confuse themselves between hatred and  reality. They don’t seem to understand that language is simply a means of communication. Weyane speaks Amharic and exercises its brutality on Amaras; it also speaks Afan Oromo putting the Oromo people under its brutal tenure. Americans developed the English language of their one time arch enemy. Moreover, we can trace from history that most present Oromo people were forced not only to speak Afan Oromo but to be Oromos when Abba dula occupiers compelled previous indigenous people in many parts of  Ethiopia to undergo through mass assimilation processes like moogassa, meedhicha, and harmoa-hodha.

These politicians would not like to raise the fact about forceful occupation of indigenous people in many parts of Ethiopia was a reality before Oromo settlements; however, they would like to reiterate about what happened only 100 years ago. Wasn’t that history before 100 years a common history? Did those occupiers took lands and properties of the indigenous people at will without any blood shed? Was Naftagna limited to Amaras only? Does Amara originally come only from a certain race or from ancestors who were persuaded to speak the language?  If one tries to delve into historical circumstances, one would find no basis of aberration on the integrity of Ethiopians in internal conflicts for power and supremacy on one hand and coherently fighting back foreign aggression on the other hand that brought about common history and fate of the people in the country. 

The concept of nationalism based on contemptuous inception is not progressive; it arrests democratic developments. It nips in the bud the spirit of democracy. An institution that does not follow democratic principles cannot have healthy relationships with peoples, because any people likes to be free and to exercise harmonious relationships with any other people.

The concept of segregating Ethiopia into “Oromoia”, “Amara”, etc ethnic structure  is not a manifestation of democracy, but a manifestation of apartheid devised by Weyane racial divide-and-rule treason. This racial scheme will never improve the standard of living of the Oromo or other people but will stifle the harmony of Ethiopians that averts equality. There has never been a place in Ethiopia where Oromo blood had not been shed to survive Ethiopia. So, who is foolish that chooses only a parcel instead of the legitimate whole?  The greatest vision is a Utopian unknown state for nationally oriented political followers. And for few elites it is ego of power, individual or group power instead  that undermines belonging to a great nation with wider geographical and social groups.  Any matured person does not need to be a politician or a scholar to know that a united Ethiopia can be in a better position to resist foreign domination and develop economically. All Ethiopian peoples are forces that support each other and develop together. The integrity of the country is an asset to any Ethiopian from any corner of the country. While all this is undeniable, what nationalist power mongers fear is the warranty to be on power; ironically they do not trust the people since they are not confident to build a real democratic system. Yes, without having the gut to sit and discuss with their opponents, they cannot dare to be part of a democratic system. If they claim to stand for peoples’s equality, justice, peace, and prosperity, they should be realistic to people; they should be genuine to any people and face facts on the ground.

“If we desire a society of peace, then we cannot achieve such a society through violence. If we desire a society without discrimination, then we must not discriminate against anyone in the process of building this society. If we desire a society that is democratic, then democracy must become a means as well as an end”. – Bayard Rustin as compiled in Obbo Tadesse Nigatu’s recent article.

Some Oromo politicians still stir the murky old politics of ethnicity and so called Amara chauvinism after 40 years of the demise of the Solomonic dynasty from the earth of Ethiopia. While the people moved in the forefront, no Oromo political organization challenged Weyane except disseminating racial hatred and old rhetoric of national oppression like Doctor Hizquel who ironically proved how Oromo politicians could not progress. (ዶክተር ሕዝቅኤል ኦሮሞ እንደዚህ ይሰደባል በማለት ጭራሹኑ ኦሮሞን ሰድቦ ለተሳዳቢ የሰጠ ያዋቂ አጥፊ) by fanning hatred. Similarly Dr Tsegaye Ararsa also tried to analyze hearsay on Menelik and his relation to the Caucasian race. At this time when people seek solidarity this has no objective other than confusing or changing the attention of the people.  In the same way, Dr Paulos Milkias  bluntly rebuffed Dr Fikre Tollosa’s book on the relationships of Oromo and Amara people. We were expecting his professional comments. However, while he was asking for evidence, Dr. Paulos did not utter any historical facts let alone to touch on what Dr Fikre wrote. There is no substance fact presented by him to disprove the other writer except his repeated “false” and “no scientific proof” phrases. So are these scholars confusing us? Are they  trying to disintegrate our peoples instead of unifying them?

We cannot live in the past. Rumor mongering and fanning hatred is not a progressive outlook and takes us nowhere. This can neither build a nation nor fend of an enemy. People are yearning for  solidarity not contradiction. So, we need to build the future which can only be done by helping each other instead of finding a means of contradicting one another; and in order to do that, we need to think that a bright future is based on what we are doing today.

Tefera Dinberu

During the U.S. Department of State’s daily press briefing, Deputy Spokesperson Mark C. Toner was asked about the recent arrest of Dr. Merera Gudina, the Chairman of the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC), by the Ethiopian Authorities. Here is the full question-answer portion from the daily briefing.

The U.S. supports Ethiopia with military aid, monetary assistance and bilateral trade. So what makes their relationship so

In October, the U.S. State Department issued a travel warning for Ethiopia. The State Department website says this warning is due to “ongoing unrest that has led to hundreds of deaths, thousands of arrests, as well as injuries and extensive property damage.”

Andre Lowe

MONTE CARLO, Monaco:

He’s all about action.

In fact, track and field’s biggest showman sees a bit of Hollywood tough guy Jason Statham, in himself, and as he capped another all-conquering season with a record sixth IAAF Male Athlete of the Year (AOY) award, Usain Bolt showed whether the stage is a track or an actual stage, he is just as entertaining.

Ethiopia’s Almaz Ayana won the female Athlete of the Year award after a season that saw her winning Olympic gold in the 10,000m in a world record 29:17.45 to erase a 23-year-old mark, and bronze, plus the Diamond Race title in the 5000m.

With next year’s farewell season looking more and more like one of Marvel’s after-credit scenes, Bolt’s triple gold-medal haul at the Olympic Games in Rio and last night’s AOY nod at the Salle des Etoiles could be considered the perfect ending to his last full season, his latest in what has been a medal and record-filled career.

“I would definitely be a great action guy,” Bolt laughed when asked by the presenter if his new I am Bolt film meant a career in front of the lenses after he retires. “The next Jason Bourne. More like Jason Statham, I’m not a Bond type of guy. He is too slick.”

It was a light tone in a rebranded and restyled IAAF Athletics Awards, which brought a departure from the heavy note of reform after a year of chaos, which have hung over the IAAF’s most important weekend in recent times.

The exchange was one of the moments that exemplifies the sport’s biggest personality, one whose box office pull will no doubt, leave a void.

Bolt, who told The Gleaner that he will be paying close attention to see who takes over the ‘poster boy’ tag once he exits stage left, also paid homage to fellow male AOY finalists Wayde van Niekerk, who won Olympic 400m in a blistering 43.03 world record, and Mo Farah, the Olympic 10,000m and 5,000m champion.

“This award is very important to me. The fact it was voted on by the fans is very special. I have worked hard over the years to accomplish big things, so, for me, it’s a great feeling,” said Bolt, who was sporting a smart dark suit, burgundy tie and brown shoes. “You always have to respect all the nominees, they have proven that they are great in their own respect, in their own fields.

“It’s a great feeling. I have proven to the world that I am one of my the best athletes in the world. It’s a great thing to accomplish and to end the season in a bang. I feel good about that,” Bolt added.

Feeling ambivalent

Van Niekerk admitted to feeling ambivalent about the experience, accepting that it’s the beginning of the end for an athlete who he has looked up to while being motivated to push even harder in the future.

“It’s sad seeing an amazing athlete like Bolt being on the verge of retiring, someone who I have found so much inspiration and motivation from, but, at the same time, it has given me so much confidence to go out there and put myself forward and be the future,” van Niekerk told The Gleaner.

Bolt’s other AOY awards were presented in 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012 and 2013.

Elaine Thompson, who was many person’s favourite going into the evening after her 100m and 200m double at the Olympics, was looking to become the third Jamaican to win the female AOY award after Merlene Ottey in 1990 and Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce (2013), but was nonetheless pleased to have been considered. Vowed to make a return to the ceremony.

“I have to give God thanks for a wonderful season. To be nominated for the IAAF female Athlete of the Year award is a great honour and even though I didn’t win tonight, I am happy for the season. I am happy for Almaz, I congratulated her on her season and I hope she will continue to do great, and I will continue to work hard,” Thompson said.

Thompson also helped Jamaica to its 4x100m silver in Rio, win bronze at the IAAF World Indoor Championships, and went unbeaten in the 100m.

Poland’s Olympic champion and world record holder in the hammer throw, Anita Wlodarczyk, was the other finalist.

Harry Marra, who coaches Olympic decathlon champion and world record holder Ashton Eaton and wife Brianne Theisen-Eaton – Olympic bronze medal winner in the heptathlon, was presented with the Coaching Achievement award.

Canadian sprinter Andre De Grasse, 200m silver and 100m bronze medallist from Rio, and Belgian heptathlete Nafissatou Thiam were the male and female Rising Star recipients.

Tegla Loroupe won the inaugural President’s Award for her work in the creation of the first Refugee Olympic team, with Greece’s Polyxeni Argeitaki receiving the Women in Athletics award for her efforts towards developing and encouraging greater female participation in the sport.

Source    –   The Jamaica Cleaner

AN ETHIOPIAN opposition leader is being held on terror charges after holding talks with European Union bosses.

By SIMON OSBORNE

Merera Gudina, who leads the Oromo People’s Congress, was detained after returning to Addis Ababa from Brussels where he criticised the government in Addis Ababa for imposing a state of emergency.

Mr Gudina has been at the forefront of protests against land grabs in the Oromiya region and what his supporters have described as a government clampdown on political freedoms.

GETTY

Women in the troubled Oromiya region of Ethiopia

Merera Gudina is in custody and an investigation is currently taking place

Ethiopian security official

His deputy Gebru Gebremariam said: “Merera arrived in Addis Ababa on Wednesday morning from a trip to Brussels, where he met members of the European Parliament.

“Police arrested him in his house the same day in the evening. We haven’t been given reasons behind his arrest.”

Ethiopian security officials said Mr Gudina had violated guidelines “by making contact with terrorist groups” during his visit to Brussels.

They said: “Given this violation, Merera Gudina is in custody and an investigation is currently taking place.”

GETTY

Villagers in Ethiopia’s troubled Oromiya region

More than 500 people died in violent protests against the government until the six-month state of emergency was declared in October.

Demonstrations were initially triggered by anger over a development scheme that opponents said would force farmers off their land.

Foreign firms have often been leased land by the government that locals say was seized from them for little compensation and sold on at great profit.

nc

Merera Gudina was arrested on terror charges after a trip to Brussels

Ethiopia’s Omo Valley Tribe in pictures

Fri, September 30, 2016

Approximately 24 indigenous tribes live in South Omo, Ethiopia, whom still retain their cultural traditions and attire.

PLAY SLIDESHOW

The government, which scrapped the capital’s development plan after protests erupted, denies imposing political restrictions or illegally taking land.

Opposition parties failed to secure a single seat in parliament in the last elections in 2015.

Open Letter to BEDiSA Group, with regards to Purchase of Tana Beles Project – Located in Amhara Region, Ethiopia

Download (PDF, 394KB)

Abdur Rahman Alfa Shaban with IAAF

Ethiopia’s Almaz Ayana has been named the female World Athletes of the Year at the International Association of Athletics Federation’s Athletics Awards 2016, held at Sporting Monte Carlo on Friday.

Ayana had a record-breaking 2015. After recording the fastest 10,000m debut in history in June, the Ethiopian went on to win the Olympic title at the distance in a world record of 29:17.45.

She also took bronze in the 5000m event in Rio, her only loss of the year. Having recorded three of the eight fastest times at 5000m, she ended the year as the Diamond Race winner for that discipline.

I live for the moments when I walk into a stadium and I hear a loud roar and Rio was outstanding. One of the main reasons I’m continuing for another year is because of the fans; they don’t want me to retire. I have to give thanks to them.

View image on Twitter

Ayana becomes the third Ethiopian woman to win this award, following Genzebe Dibaba in 2015 and Meseret Defar in 2007.

“I don’t have words to explain my feelings right now, I’m so excited,” said Ayana whose award was presented by International Athletics Foundation (IAF) Honorary President HSH Prince Albert II of Monaco. “Really, I’m so pleased.”

Jamaica’s Usain Bolt who won the award five times between 2008 and 2013, was named the best male athlete. With the current accolade, Bold added to his legacy by earning the trophy for a record sixth occasion.

The sprinting superstar successfully defended his Olympic titles in the 100m, 200m and 4×100m, in the just ended Rio Olympics bringing his lifetime tally of Olympic gold medals to nine.

“He clocked season’s bests of 9.81 and 19.78 to win the 100m and 200m in Rio and then anchored the Jamaican team to a world-leading 37.27 when winning the 4×100m,” the IAAF said on its website.

He also went undefeated throughout the whole season at all distances, including heats.

View image on Twitter

“I live for the moments when I walk into a stadium and I hear a loud roar and Rio was outstanding,” said Bolt, whose award was presented by IAAF President Sebastian Coe. “One of the main reasons I’m continuing for another year is because of the fans; they don’t want me to retire. I have to give thanks to them.”

21-year-old Canadian, Andre De Grasse, was also named the male rising star. De Grasse earned the Olympic 200m silver medal in Rio, having set a national record of 19.80 in the semifinal.

He took bronze over 100m in a PB of 9.91 and anchored the Canadian team to bronze in the 4×100m, setting a national record of 37.64.

Belgian Nafissatou Thiam was named the rising female athlete for the year. She won gold in the heptathlon at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games with a world-leading national record of 6810.

At age 21, only one athlete (Carolina Kluft) has ever produced a higher score than Thiam’s at that age. En route to her Olympic triumph, she set a world heptathlon best of 1.98m in the high jump; higher than the winning leap in the individual high jump final.

Coaching achievement award went to Harry Marra, the US coach who guided Ashton Eaton to his second successive decathlon gold medal at the Rio 2016 Olympic Games.

The IAAF President Award went to Tegla Loroupe, the Chef de Mission for the Refugee Olympic Team in Rio. This award recognises and honours great service to athletics.

The former marathon world record-holder helped select the Refugee Olympic Team after the Tegla Loroupe Peace Foundation held a competition at the Kakuma refugee camp in north-west Kenya.

The Women in Athletics award went to Polyxeni Argeitaki, an assistant professor of athletics at the National Kapodistrian University of Athens. This award recognises outstanding achievements and contributions made to develop, encourage and strengthen the participation of women and girls at all levels of the sport.

The former Greek champion at middle-distance events is the treasurer, council member and president of the scientific committee at the Hellenic Athletics Federation. She has also written more than 50 scientific publications.

Part II

The first part of the research on the Horn of Africa described the regional state-to-state political dynamics, and now it’s time to delve into each country more in depth in order to acquire a heightened sense of their strategic positions. This will enable the final section about the Hybrid War vulnerabilities in the region to be more understandable to the reader, since a few of the scenarios admittedly require some detailed background information in order to properly comprehend the manner in which the US intends to effectively apply them. 

2016 in Review Era of the Princess Emperror Tewodros II – SBS Amharic

by Prof Alemayehu G. Mariam
Author’s Note: This is the fifth installment in a series I have called “What Do WE Want and Do NOW?”.  The serialized commentaries have three aims: 1) take stock of the impact of the recent uprisings in Ethiopia against the backdrop of the extreme repression (“state of emergency”) unleashed by the Thugtatorship of the Tigrean People’s Liberation Front (T-TPLF); 2) challenge Ethiopians, particularly Ethiopian intellectuals, to think outside the box, indeed with no box at all, about going  forward, and 3) propose some ideas that maybe useful in charting a future course of action given current circumstances. “We” have met the enemy and he is us!

As I suspected, my commentary last week seems to have ruffled a few feathers. Did I air a bit of the dirty laundry in public?

Some suggested I appeared holier-than-thou in characterizing some of the “opposition”, especially in the Diaspora, as power-hungry and –thirsty. Others did not take well my exhortation to acquire “emotional intelligence”. Some said I should take personal responsibility and organize the Diaspora “opposition” into a unified political force instead of writing prescriptions about what needs and should be done.

I aim to address the foregoing points in this and future commentaries.

Part I, HERE; Part II, HERE; Part III, HERE; Part IV, HERE.

XIV. “WE” must speak of ourselves as “WE” are, nothing extenuate.

As my website prominently proclaims, I aim to speak truth to power. But that is not all. I aim to speak truth to the power-abuser, the power-hungry and –thirsty and even the powerless. I tell it as I see it. For a long time, I have held back and bitten my tongue in speaking about “US”, the “opposition”, for various reasons. I directed my energy and focus on that corrupt gang of criminal thugs known as the “Tigrean People’s Liberation Front” (T-TPLF) playing divide and rule “government” in Ethiopia. It was difficult to critique the “opposition” when there is no identifiable organized “opposition”. The late thugmaster Meles Zenawi used to threaten the amorphous “opposition” allegedly “plotting” and “hatching to incite protests and terror” that they would “pay a price.” By the thugmaster’s standards, anyone who does not like him or his T-TPLF are the disloyal and subversive opposition. He used to threaten “opposition leaders” that if they misbehave they will “vegetate in jail forever.” For Meles, his own shadow was also the opposition.

Barack Obama said he opposes any Ethiopian opposition “group” “that is promoting the violent overthrow of a government, including the government of Ethiopia, that has been democratically elected.” Obama must have been smoking something when he said that because the only “government” that used violence to seize power is the T-TPLF. Yesterday’s terrorists are today’s respectable governments. What Obama failed to understand was the fact that once a thug, always a thug. Obama himself said it when he was running for the presidency. “You know, you can put lipstick on a pig, but it’s still a pig. You can wrap an old fish in a piece of paper called ‘change.’ It’s still gonna stink after eight years.” Obama can put lipstick and nail polish on a cackle of hyenas, but at the end of the day, they are hyenas. After 25 years wrapping themselves in power, hyenas stink to high heaven.

“WE” have come to believe that a few individuals railing on social media, commenting in the blogosphere, convening conferences, and propagating information in cyberspace represent the “opposition”. I am afraid “WE” have confused the politics of dissent and dissidence with the politics of organized opposition. I find recent trends in the “hyper-ethnicization” of the “opposition” particularly disturbing; and in the long-term, I believe it will guarantee the perpetuation of thug rule in Ethiopia. “WE” in the “opposition” can do no greater favor to the T-TPLF than talking their mother tongue of ethnic division, hate and hegemony.

The fact of the matter is the there is no organized opposition inside or outside Ethiopia.  The T-TPLF has made it impossible for any organized opposition to emerge in the country. Meles used to intimidate the opposition: “We will crush them with our full force.” The T-TPLF have jailed, tortured, disappeared, exiled and killed “opposition” leaders and members. They have bought off, blackmailed and intimidated others to stay out of “opposition” politics. They have persecuted and prosecuted those suspected of supporting the “opposition”. Obviously, the decimation of existing domestic “opposition” groups and elements in the country and making sure that no new ones emerge is in the self-interest of the T-TPLF.

However, it is a complete mystery to me why the Ethiopian Diaspora “opposition” cannot unify around a common agenda and present a clear alternative to thug rule. Every day the T-TPLF massacres and jails wholesale innocent citizens, and the Diaspora “opposition” is quibbling about ethnicity and jockeying for the illusion of power. This situation is “a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma” to my mind.

Lately, I have observed that the Diaspora “opposition” is styling in earnest along ethnic lines. The “opposition” is all about ethnonationalism. Self-appointed and –anointed individuals and groups are spewing the toxic vocabulary of ethnic hate, division and chauvinism. Interestingly, it all seems to be a gabfest of parrots. I have no idea why the “opposition” wants to play the T-TPLF’s zero sum ethnic games. Only the T-TPLF could be the victor in the game of ethnic thrones whoever plays it. The tragedy is that some in the “opposition” are sleepwalking in the T-TPLF minefield of ethnic and identity politics. The outcome is predetermined. The T-TPLF guys are watching on the sidelines smiling ear to ear as their opposition commits the equivalent of hara-kiri before their eyes.

What “WE” have today in the Diaspora is an opposition unified against itself; an “opposition” resolute in its opposition against its own rational self-interest. “WE” have an “opposition” that seems to be unwilling, unable and unready to form a genuine inter-ethnic and inter-religious alliance willing to work together to defeat the gang of criminal thugs that are plundering the country and indiscriminately massacring citizens and lay a foundation for an egalitarian society based on the rule of law. This, in my view, is sheer madness.

I have often wondered why the Diaspora “opposition” will cut its nose to spite its face. The “opposition” talks the talks of being unified against the T-TPLF but it refuses to walk the talk. That is the crux of the problem.

As I indicated in my last commentary, “WE” do not ask the right questions as the “opposition”.  “WE” should be asking how “WE” can organize around the common problems and issues that impact negatively on all Ethiopians regardless of their ethnicity, religion, language, gender or region. “WE” should unite in the cause of the  tens of thousands of political prisoners who are languishing in T-TPLF jails. The T-TPLF torture chambers are in overdrive. The T-TPLF state of emergency is the official stamp certifying Ethiopia today is a totalitarian police state. “WE” must unite around the suffering of our people.

I must confess I do not know the priorities of the Diaspora “opposition”. Is it the removal of the T-TPLF and seize power? Is it the formation of new and improved ethnic homelands, the apartheid-style bantustans created by the T-TPLF and called “kilils”?  Is the endless debate and recrimination about staking out positions for a post-T-TPLF era? Does it make any sense to play right into the dirty hands of the T-TPLF obsessing about ethnic politics?

The whole raison d’etre (the one and only reason) of the T-TPLF is the ethnic and communal fragmentation of Ethiopia. Is that what the “opposition” wants, particularly those who vow to see the dissolution of Ethiopia if they don’t get what they want? If so, why pretend to be the opposition? Why not openly join the T-TPLF and hasten the process of disintegration? Why put up the drama? Why torment oneself in a process of psychological projection?

My personal view on ethnic politics is well-known. I believe the T-TPLF created its apartheid-style homelands (kilils) to disempower the vast majority of the people and empower themselves as the sole masters of the Ethiopian people. The T-TPLF leaders know ten separate fingers flexing alone are powerless and useless. But when ten fingers come together and make a double fist, they can deliver a knockout. The T-TPLF created a Bantustan (kilil) of 9 regions (fingers). The T-TPLF cut the 10^th finger, the thumb, and gave it away in 1994. Now, the T-TPLF is facing opposition from 9 fingers flexing  separately. Is it possible to push even a wobbly T-TPLF to the ground with 9 fingers flexing separately with a thumb missing?

“WE” should face the facts as they are.  WE” are doing the T-TPLF’s dirty jobs as the “opposition” by promoting the politics of ethnic identity and communalism.  If only “WE” knew what the T-TPLF say about “US” in private. It’s like the old Ethiopian saying: “If you knew what they say about you, you would not go to market.” The fact of the matter is that the “opposition” is unwittingly allying itself with the T-TPLF and advancing its divisive ethnic agenda. The T-TPLF guys did not stay in power wielding absolute power for 25 years by being dumb. They stayed in power by skillfully playing one group against the other. Machiavelli would be proud of them.

What the “opposition” needs to clearly understand is the fact that the T-TPLF appears strong because the “opposition” is weak; they appear organized and monolithic because the “opposition” is fragmented and disoriented; they appear decisive and resolute because the “opposition” is unsure and shows very little self-confidence; they appear unified because the “opposition” is in disarray. In short, the “opposition” has met the enemy. The enemy is not the T-TPLF. The enemy is the “opposition”.

XV. Are “WE” really serious about working for political change, democracy, freedom or human rights in Ethiopia?

“WE” talk about democracy, freedom, human rights and the rest of it. “WE” gather and pontificate about the virtues of “unity” and “solidarity”.  What I have observed over the past decade is that there is a lot of talk and a lot less walk the talk in the “opposition”. At best, there is half-hearted action towards collective action on the major issues.

The question that has puzzled me for long is determining the basis for “opposition” unity and solidarity. Is it ideological? Policy-based? Driven by vision and mission? Is it based on ethnic singularity? Nationality? Humanity? Or is it about elite unity and solidarity?

This question, I believe, has a three part answer. First, those who present themselves as the “opposition” or part of the “opposition” have a duty to articulate their vision, plans and programs and share them with the public in an educational campaign, and further engage the public in the discussions and debates. What are the “opposition’s” programs for political, economic and social change? What issues are to be given priority?

Second, the “opposition” must produce a comprehensive and systematic critique of the T-TPLF’s policies and programs, or what are palmed off as such over the past 25 years. That is easier said than done as the secretive T-TPLF hides everything. In my limited survey of the T-TPLF record, I have documented that the T-TPLF political economy is a statistical sandcastle. I have completely debunked the T-TPLF’s claims of double-digit growth over the past decade. It is a complete fabrication. I have demonstrated beyond a shadow of doubt that the T-TPLF cooks the economic statistics to make itself look good. On numerous occasions I have challenged the T-TPLF to disprove my claim that they manufacture statistics to inflate economic growth. I know for a fact that the bean counters are directed by T-TPLF bosses to prepare two sets of books; one containing the real data and the other for public consumption and public relations with the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the so called Development Assistance Group (DAG). But it is all lies, damned lies and statislies.

How many in the “opposition” can honestly say they have taken time to study the T-TPLF’s economic programs, laws, regulations and administrative and bureaucratic practices? How can one propose changes without fully understanding the existing rotten system? When the T-TPLF guys marched out of the bush into the capital, they were clueless about governance or policy. Meles was so clueless he had to beg some guy from the U.S. embassy to get him introductory economic texts. Later he began putting on airs after he started hanging out with Jeff Sachs and Joe Stiglitz who showered him with praises as a smart cookie. They were just coddling his fragile ego. The point is “We” do not want a repeat of the Meles-type on the job training.

I urge the “opposition” to undertake a comprehensive assessment of T-TPLF policies, programs, laws, regulations, etc. I often ask myself how many in the “opposition” have taken the time to carefully study the T-TPLF’s so-called “Growth and Transformation Plan 2010-15” and 2005/10, which the T-TPLF touts as the best thing that happened to Ethiopia since the invention of injera and wot? Anyone who has carefully studied that compilation of slogans, catchphrases and buzzwords knows how that gang of ignorant thugs have laid waste to the country. But I would wager few in the “opposition” have taken the time to delve into that economic fairy tale.

On the question of human rights, nearly all of the work is done by international human rights organizations, not the “opposition”. I do not expect the “opposition” to take over the work of the dedicated human rights organizations. But I believe it is important for the “opposition” to undertake a modicum of human rights data collection and analysis even on an anecdotal basis. I am also distressed by the fact that very few in the “opposition” take the time to read, digest and disseminate the findings of the reports of the international human rights organizations for educational and advocacy purposes.  I also see few “opposition” groups organized specifically to promote and advocate human rights in Ethiopia. So that I am not misunderstood, I want to make it clear that I fully support and applaud all who engage in demonstrations and protests actions whenever gross human rights violations are committed by the T-TPLF. It is vitally important to express moral outrage and be heard. My concern is more with the need for a Diaspora-based human rights effort operated by the “opposition”. How could human rights be promoted in a post-T-TPLF period if the seeds are not planted and allowed to grow now?

The nitty gritty work of human rights data collection and analysis and coordination with the various international human rights organizations is a time intensive and exhausting task. It may even be dangerous for those collecting data inside the country. But working closely with the international human rights groups and providing them support to do more must be a top “opposition” priority.  Moreover, the “opposition” needs to make human rights education and advocacy a priority.

On the question of democracy and democratic governance, I do not see much headway either. I have tried to learn about the T-TPLF’s “revolutionary democracy”, but that has led me on a wild goose chase. The chief ideologue of “revolutionary democracy” did not leave much written work behind to study;  and none of the Meles-worshippers have taken it upon themselves to expound on his “revolutionary democracy”. Like many things the T-TPLF leaders do, “revolutionary democracy” is a shell game with very little substance. Because the T-TPLF leaders are so sure that no one in the “opposition” will systematically challenge them on ideology and policy, they continue to recycle their tired and meaningless catch phrases, buzzwords and mumbo jumbo as “policy”, “vision” and “mission”.

But what is the “opposition’s” alternative for democratic governance?  “Ethnic democracy”?

Over the years, I have seen a few drafts of “constitutions” circulating in cyberspace. They were good starting points, but they all seem to have died on the vine. I have even participated in conferences and meetings aspiring to explore constitutional and governance alternatives. So I wonder out loud: Why is it that the “opposition” has not drafted alternative versions of proposed constitutions and presented them for ongoing public debate? When thugmaster Meles assembled his “constitutional drafters”, he manipulated them to produce a document that served his divide and rule purposes. But Meles never had any intention of abiding by his own constitution. It was something he whipped out whenever he went panhandling for aid and loans. He would say, “Look I have a constitution that is better than the U.S.” Meles actually said his so-called anti-terrorism laws was the best in the world because he did a word-for-word cut-and pastejob from the world’s best anti-terrorism laws. That has always been Meles’ and the T-TPLF’s problem. They think all it takes is to copy someone’s ideas or steal business plans from unsuspecting license applicants and make it happen. I believe the “opposition” should engage in an ongoing constitutional discussions and work collaboratively to develop creative ideas to deal with age-old problems.

XVI. Why I write, teach and advocate instead of engaging in political organizing

As I have stated on numerous occasions, I came upon Ethiopian politics not by personal choice but by force of circumstances. After living in the United States for decades, I had little interest in politics in Ethiopia or in Diaspora Ethiopia. When the T-TPLF took power in 1991, I wrote a few articles (available on my website) which took a wait and see attitude. I was simply not interested and was quite busy with my own professional interests.

Everything changed for me in 2005 when the late Meles Zenawi personally ordered his goons to shoot and kill any protesters following the 2005 elections. I later learned from a singularly authoritative source that  Meles had ordered the shootings to demonstrate to the opposition and the country as a whole that he could be ruthless against those who challenge his power. He wanted to send a clear message: Oppose me and I will crush you. It was a calculated shock and awe strategy; and it did work for several years as few dared to protest or oppose him in public.

The Meles Massacres of 2005, following the May election that year, transformed me from a disinterested casual observer of Ethiopian politics to a relentless and indefatigable human rights advocate. What deeply bothered me about Meles and his gang was not the fact that they used power to enrich themselves. I expected that from crass bush thugs. What enraged me was how Meles could feel so arrogant and so unaccountable that he could order a massacre and go on with business as usual without being challenged. Of course, I read and heard of African dictators massacring their citizens to cling to power. Those stories always saddened me and caused me to despair over the fate of Africa. But I was never enraged as I was when I saw the bloody pictures of the victims of the Meles Massacres. I decided to convert my rage and outrage by becoming the voice of all the Meles Massacres and all other victims of T-TPLF massacres and crimes against humanity. That was and remains my mission today.

Over the years, I have been sked why I have not joined a political group or party or participated in organized political activities. My answer is always the same. I am a teacher, a lawyer and a human rights advocate. I have absolutely no interest in the politics of power nor do I have any ambition for power. If I were to pursue politics, I would probably make a very bad one. A guy who proclaims to speak truth to power cannot be in power. It would be odd to speak truth to oneself. Truth telling and politics, like oil and water, don’t mix. So I leave the practice of politics to those who are experts in the art. I believe I can do a much better job speaking truth to those in power, abuse power, out of power, wanna get into power and dream about power and the powerless, than to be in power myself. I like the humorous definition of politics, which is derived from “poly” meaning “many” and “ticks” as in blood sucking ticks.

Over the past 11 years, I have sought to teach and preach on the cause of freedom, democracy and human rights every week. That I will continue to do. There are many who are inspired by my writings. Many find them educational and instructive. I suspect there are many others who blindly disapprove of my writings and views. I doubt many of those actually understand what I am writing. But no matter. There are T-TPLF supporters who believe that I am so obsessed with hatred for the T-TPLF that I would hound them to the gates of hell if I could. People can take what they choose from my writings and comments and interpret them any way they want. I do not write for public accolade and approval or to invite censure and disapproval. I speak my mind and exercise my right to free expression to the maximum. I do not apologize to those who are offended by my writings. They have the option not to read my commentaries and avoid the heartburn of my weekly sermons. My philosophy is simple: The dogs will bark and the camel will walk. But I will apologize and make immediate correction and amends if it is demonstrated to me that a falsehood or factual inaccuracies are included in my writings. In all of the years of writing I have done, I have not met a single person who has been able to prove to me that my opinions have been based on lies, damned lies and statistical lies.

But I regard myself to be an advocate, inside the courtroom and outside in the court of public opinion.  I argue my points and use the evidence to cogently support my point of view and to persuade my readers to agree with me. I believe that to be my professional, ethical and advocacy obligation. I welcome criticism and debate. But those whose forensic skills is in ad hominem attacks, I say, “It’s water off a duck’s back. The dogs will bark and the camel will walk.”

Here I should like to note that my total contempt for the T-TPLF leaders should not be mistaken for hatred. I have no hatred for the T-TPLF leaders because I do not know any of them; nor do I care to know them. It is illogical to hate someone I have never met. I have tried to keep up with their publications to gain insights into their thinking and the kinds of persons they are. For the most part, I find them striving for academic, social  and political respectability. They aim to present themselves as enlightened and visionary leaders. Many of them have purchased degrees from online diploma mills and now demand that they be called “Dr.” and so on. It is a source of comic relief for me. I don’t really care about their pretend games. The fact of the matter is that I have no antipathy for them; but they have earned my absolute contempt as criminals against humanity, murderers, war criminals and jailers of dissidents, opposition leaders and journalists. My only wish is to see them before the bar of justice and teach them a lifetime lesson in the rule of law.

But I don’t wish to avoid accountability on my part. Why can’t I organize a formal or informal group for the advancement of human rights and the rule of law in Ethiopia? I don’t want to hide behind excuses, but I have tried so many times to put together informal groups and found no takers. Beginning in 2006, I have tried to organize  Ethiopian lawyers and set up a legal defense fund, without much success.  I have called for and volunteered to help in the establishment of an informal “think tank” on various occasions to no avail. I even offered the idea to established “opposition” groups who turned deaf ears to my plea. I have attempted a variety of collaborative efforts, but I have found no serious takers. It would take too long to list the reasons why my efforts have failed. Suffice it to say that making a long-term commitment and making the human rights struggle as part of one’s personal life may not be a choice for everyone. It may not make a lot of sense for many people to put out a lot of hard work on behalf of people who live far, far away and where the results are not immediately visible. Human rights advocacy is not as sexy as politics. But that is just the way it is.

That does not mean I have given up; quite to the contrary, I shall continue to challenge my fellow academics, lawyers, activists and others to start efforts where we could join forces to work on human rights issues and advocacy. I would hasten to add that to be successful in such an effort, participants must agree to check in their political ambitions at the door and roll up their sleeves, put their noses the grindstone, shoulder to the wheel and keep on plugging away….

To be continued….

In his November 24, 2016 article, Mr. Rene Lefort described the Ethiopian crisis and theorized that the problem is a center-periphery issue, underpinned by economic growth and exacerbated by the power vacuum left by the late dictator, Mr. Meles Zenawi.  Mr. Lefort’s narrative, however, is not the same as the one that was made at the two-days-long conference which was held in October in Washington DC, under the theme of Transition and Constitution Making in Post-Conflict Ethiopia. I also read Professor Messay Kebede’s critique and Mr. Lefort’s response. It is an interesting and timely discourse, with scholarly decorum. In this rejoinder I attempt to show that no single theory fully explains a social and economic phenomenon, and argue that the center-periphery thesis does not fill a void. As Amartya Sen succinctly documents, “the asymmetry of power between the ruler and the ruled which heighted culture, cannot be used to the explain failure of governance”. We need to find a better analytical framework.

On a text level, the author of the original article does not hide what he intended to say, for the article is readable despite its wordiness. The work appears to be a chronicle of his latest trip to Ethiopia rather than a documentation of a serious research, and hence unlike his other works, it contains ambiguities and assertions. In the response of December 5, 2016 Mr. Lefort slides and concludes that the continuity of the Ethiopian state is conditioned on EPRDF’s internal dynamics, as if the Ethiopian state is one of the post colony states of Africa, and founded on the fables of gedli historians. The piece and the response confuse between known problems of decentralization (organizational instabilities when sub entities have/do not have/ mass base) and ordinary factionalism or power blocks within organizations.  From a source perspective, the writer appears to have privileged access to the regime’s kingpins. The only other sample included in the report was one of the last dissenting legal voices in the country, Dr. Merera Gudina, a fearless advocate of dual identities, who is now finding himself in the jails of the dictatorship.

At a conceptual level, the article reignites the debate about the type of association (if any) between political institutions and economic growth. Is there causality or reverse causality between the two variables, and if growth exists, who are/were the actors (winners and losers)? These questions were subjects of careful works of academics and policy makers. The great classical and contemporary economists have immensely labored to produce a wealth of literature, in the context of both developing and developed nations. Qualitative arguments crucially depend on contextual orthodoxy (country’s uniqueness or exceptionalism), and hence attempting to examine Ethiopia’s crisis along the lines of orthodoxy is/will not be an exception.  However, in the evaluation of a text, empirical or otherwise, one is obliged to ask whether a text makes sense to either theory or practice or both; one has to examine whether the text hides anything. Theorization therefore suggests a “self-conscious development and specification of abstract categories and the formulation of patterned relationship such as chains of cause and effect.” From Mr. Lefort’s description of the events in Ethiopia, one expects a major idea (s) to come out from an author of his stature, with the aim resolving the tensions. Indeed the major idea that is coming out of his piece is that the regime will and probably should continue, under a set of conditions (ifs and buts), regardless, and the threat to its rule is from within. The declaration of the state of emergency has as much to do with power dynamics (the PDOs’ elevation from a status of being TPLF’s satellites to junior partners) and factionalism within the ruling party as the attempt to quell the uprisings in various parts of the country.

In a paper entitled “Do Institutions Cause Growth”, Glaeser, La Porta and Lopez De-Silanes, using cross section of country data across a time period of forty years show that “human capital is the basic source of growth than political institutions; and poor countries get out of poverty by good policies often pursued by dictators and subsequently improve their institutions”. For them, institutions are sets of rules, attitudes, ethical standards, procedures and norms that are designed to constrain those in authority, and underscore that growth in poor countries may be feasible without immediate improvement in institutions.

The Economist of May 7 2016 compared the degree of crony capitalism in developed and developing economies, and the latter group of countries accounted for 43% of global GDP but for 65% of global crony wealth. During the last two decades capital moved from one country to another without restriction, financial liberalization allowed crony capital to consolidate itself, capture the state, speculate and evade taxes, and allied with dictatorial regimes, minorities and families to serve as intermediary for  foreign capital; owned crony industries through shoddy deals (large farms, banking, mining, telecommunications, and real estate) and pushed up prices, particularly property prices in these countries. Crony capitalism in many countries thus has led many nations to be vulnerable to discontents, surprising election results, political instability and government unaccountability. Cross country studies such as the above however had econometric problems where a number of social and political variables are difficult to recognize and measure, and hence more recent studies have attempted to examine “within country” factors, such as geography, culture and other social variables, which accentuate/attenuate cronyism.

Enter Ethiopia’s growth and institutions. The African Development Bank and the World Bank have been producing rosy pictures for the Sub Sahara Africa (SSA) region. Credit rating agencies painted a similar picture for channeling debt capital to the region. The deficit model of higher education development justified massification without proper professors. There were several narratives of economic miracles. Flat ties and black sheds became fashion. Even President Obama incensed many Ethiopians when he talked about a democratically elected government in Ethiopia. The small economies of SSA appeared to have been put on a steroid, and Ethiopia appeared in the Keynesian beauty contest, to show high rise and shiny buildings and engineering design simulations on televisions. Increase aid, remittance and debt finance, crisis in the greater Horn of Africa, and China’s rush for the control of resources and markets, have all begun to unravel themselves, questioning the legitimacy of relationship based (crony) capitalism as the gains (if any) did not trickle down to the population.

In his response to Professor Messay critique Mr. Lefort argued that growth has increased inequality but at the same time makes strange conclusion that poverty has also been reduced. If poverty has indeed been reduced, it is not clear how much of the alleged reduction was financed by the generic growth of the economy and not by external aid, and why the country is facing so much food shortage and outmigration. A number of economists, including Professor Seid Hassan, Professor Alemayehu Geda and Professor William Easterly, and Oxford University’s Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI)-http://www.ophi.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/Ethiopia.pdf and the mass outmigration of Ethiopians provide evidence that is contrary to Mr. Lefort’s “eye witness” account of prosperity or the regime’s largely politically loaded and exaggerated growth statistics. The growth espoused by dictatorial regimes throughout SSA, if it exists, quickly lost steam as citizens continued to suffer from conflict, the brutality of the state, debt burden, forced outmigration and internal displacement, and the dynamics of heighted economic, social and political discontents, exacerbating ethnic, faith and other differences. Ethiopia’s growth story, if it exists, is not very different from the rest of SSA.  Hence, for TPLF/EPRDF the odds have assembled again, challenging the growth hymn, to a level of a storm. The central question is whether or not it will wither the current storm via its instrument of a “command post”.

Moving to the institutions, many argue that EPRDF’s own mission and structure is a problem. Furthermore, there are more than 58 locally registered political parties and another 20 or so exiled and armed groups, all contending for power. At least half of the 80 or so parties have regional perspective. TPLF thrived on this. Fractured as they are, neither the structures of the political institutions nor the TPLF authored constitution has been able to manage and regulate political behavior and the relationship based capitalism, or the master servant relationship within the ruling party. There is little difference between the central committee of the party and the national parliament, and spouses and family members sat as members of a polite bureau. The key stakeholders do not want to change this structure as they are the benefactors of the system. Hence the rhetoric of controlling rent seeking behavior and the promise of reform cannot be taken seriously.  The regime’s structure and the political ethos it advanced produced untouchables, normalized cronyism, legitimized minority rule, overemphasized diversity rather than commonality, weakened the institutions of the state, forcing everyone to behave opportunistically and “think in a box”. When cronyism is added to regionalism or other forms of closed social associations, the contest for the control of the soul of Ethiopia’s institutions gets high as the cost of inaction proved fatal for the disfavored and unorganized groups.

Understanding the discontent, fracture and armed insurrections in various parts of the country thus requires a new perspective for assessing the internal and external dimension of the conflict. Constraining the behavior of those who control the levers of real political and economic power is one important issue.  Another important and practical question is the space and time for conflict management, resolution, justice and reconciliation. Until the conflict is resolved the capturers of the institutions of the state shall continue to attempt to the control, masses continue to protest, armed groups get legitimacy and popularity, foreigners get a chance to advance their own interest, and peripheries opt to ignore or undermine or exit from the so called “union of ethnic groups” construct of Ethiopia. They delegitimize the state simply because that is the bargaining instrument they have, and at present aggrieved parties do not have the institutional mechanism to resolve conflict from within. Regionalism as an instrument of bargain and de-legitimization of the state are likely to continue for a while but many have already realized that fads and fables do not persist.  Had Mr. Lefort’s energy been spent on this direction, it would have been a worthwhile investment.

With the TPLF/EPRDF determined as it is to assert its authority,  and continues its head-on collision with the new intelligentsia, under the mantra of growth, law and order or now ironically on “Ethiopian-ism”, it is only talking to itself and the demand for improved institutions will almost certainly continue as growth (if it exists) demands better political institutions. Furthermore, TPLF/EPRDF must know that the growth, if it exists could also have come in spite of it. In short whichever way one understands the causes and consequences of the conflict change appears unavoidable. Predicting future events is hazardous but probability theory also does not support Mr. Lefort’s many ifs and buts to happen concurrently to make the TPLF/EPRDF an agent of change. More importantly, change does not come out of the fiats of autocrats and benefactors of cronyism. What saved the TPLF/EPRDF from the storm is neither its political institutions, nor its popularity in Tigrai nor its “centrist elite”, it is rather the mono ethnic top brass of the defense and security organ which is a benefactor of the cronyism. Mr. Lefort is correct in questioning how long the situation persists, and that shall remain a puzzle. However, as the Dutch philosopher Herman Dooyweered once argued, fundamental change is not possible without a “system break up”. No doubt examining how the cronyism gets replaced by better political institutions requires discourse; and there are several avenues for this. It is however incorrect to conclude that a breakup of an organization that is built on conflict and cronyism leads to the breakup of nations.

ESAT RADIO Dec 5 Mon 2016