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Ethiopia security crisis self-inflicted, Eritrea innocent – Ex-US Diplomat

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Abdur Rahman Alfa Shaban

Ethiopia must deal with its home generated security crisis and stop using Eritrea as a smokescreen, this is the view of a former United States Assistant Secretary of State.

Herman Cohen on Monday waded into renewed claims by Ethiopia that neighbouring Eritrea was backing groups aimed at destabilizing the country.

Cohen described the Ethiopian claims as false and averred that the current security crisis in the country was “self-inflicted by a minority kleptocratic regime,” in apparent reference to the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF).

‘s claim that is contributing to violent instability in Ethiopia is false. All instability in Ethiopia is self-inflicted by a minority kleptocratic régime.

Ethiopia is currently under a state of emergency imposed on February 16 this year, a day after Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn resigned his position to allow for political reforms.

The ruling coalition, the Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) is set to meet to elect his successor. The country is currently under a Command Post administering the state of emergency.

The latest accusation against Eritrea was by the federal police chief who whiles giving a briefing on the state of emergency late last week, reportedly cited Eritrean involvement in the crisis. The Eritrean Information minister dismissed the claims in an email exchange with Bloomberg.

“The regime is desperately trying to deflect attention from its intractable domestic crisis — of its own making — and find external scapegoats,” Yemane Ghebre Meskel said describing the claims as false and one that did not merit a serious response.

The ex-ambassador has been a regular commentator on African politics and has previously spoken about the Ethiopian situation.

“In Ethiopia, instead of an all-parties reconciliation conference, I fear a Middle East type military dictatorship takeover and a zero sum game bloody outcome. USG, do not let it happen,” he said hours after a state of emergency was imposed on February 16.

“While in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Secretary Tillerson should have talks with Ethiopian government about their internal political crisis, and should encourage the regime in power not to fear an opening to transparent democracy,” he tweeted on March 3, 2018.

“Ethiopia regime should withdraw SOE declaration prior to naming OPDO leader Abiy Ahmed as new Prime Minister, thereby avoiding tense vote in Parliament, and setting stage for political reforms,” he tweeted two days earlier.

Isaias-Afwerki-Herman-Cohen-Meles-Zenawi-1

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The Eritrea-Sudan border standoff: did Isaias whisper treason?

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Martin Plaut

In January this year Sudanese troops were sent to man the country’s border with Eritrea. The border was sealed: trade between the neighbouring states ceased.

This has caused real hardship for many on both sides of the border – but particularly in Eritrea, which relies on imports from Sudan.

So what is behind these dramatic events?

Sudan Vice PresThe origins of the dispute can be traced back to a visit to Eritrea by the Sudanese First Vice – President and National Prime Minister, Lt. Gen. Bakri Hassan Salih in December last year.

The official Sudanese statementsaid the two sides had “discussed progress of the bilateral relations between two countries and issues of mutual concern.”

But Sudanese sources suggest the discussions were far more dramatic. Sudan has been drifting away from its traditional alliance with Egypt, and closer to Ethiopia.

Khartoum has sided with Addis Ababa rather than Cairo over Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance dam on the Nile.

At the same time relations between Eritrea and Egypt have been warming. During General Salih’s visit to Asmara, President Isaias Afwerki suggested that the time was ripe for the General to replace President Omar al Bashir as Sudanese head of state.

Apparently speaking with the authority of Cairo, President Isaias said that such a move would be supported by both Eritrea and Egypt.

When General Salih returned to Khartoum the news was received with consternation.

Sudanese troops were rushed to the Eritrean border and the border sealed.

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A CALL TO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY

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SMNE 0satenawWILL YOU URGE THE GOVERNMENT OF ETHIOPIA TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PRINCIPLE-BASED ACTION PLAN TO BRING POLITICAL STABILITY AND A PEACEFUL TRANSITION TO DEMOCRATIC REFORMS IN ETHIOPIA?

March 20, 2018/ SMNE

To whom it concerns:

Ethiopia is in political turmoil. After 27 years of increasingly autocratic rule under the Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), Ethiopians are demanding change. As a means to that change, they are seeking an inclusive national dialogue, leading to reconciliation and genuine democratic reforms.We are pleased that many members of the international community have already endorsed this plan as the best means to bring democratic rights and stability to this strategic country in the Horn of Africa.  Unfortunately, at the same time, the government seeks to declare a state of emergency, adding further restrictions to an already tense environment that could backfire, causing greater instability and even violence.

The purpose of this letter is to call on you to urge the current Government of Ethiopia to engage in an inclusive national dialogue with the people of Ethiopia, leading to the development of a principle-based road map and action plan to bring political stability and peaceful transition to a more democratic, reconciled and just Ethiopia.

My name is Obang Metho. As the executive director of the Solidarity Movement for a New Ethiopia (SMNE), I come to you on behalf of the SMNE as well as on behalf of countless Ethiopians who seek greater freedom and justice in their country of birth.

The SMNE is a non-violent, non-political, grassroots social justice movement of diverse Ethiopians, formed in 2008 to advance truth, justice, freedom, equality, reconciliation, accountability and respect for the human rights of all Ethiopians; motivated by the truth: “no one will be free until all are free.” We have been working to mobilize Ethiopians in the Diaspora and within Ethiopia to unite in a coalition across ethnic, regional, political, cultural, gender and religious lines to build a society where “humanity comes before ethnicity” or any other differences.

Our work has included international human rights advocacy, raising awareness, refugee advocacy, investigation and analysis, reconciliation work, networking and coalition building. Our goal is to be a catalyst in bringing about a “New Ethiopia” where robust freedoms, the rule of law, transparency, respect for human rights, equal opportunity and good governance are grounded on the God-given dignity and worth of every human being.

 

CONDITIONS ON THE GROUND DO NOT MATCH EPRDF NARRATIVE

The EPRDF’s publicly acclaimed narrative does not match the desperate inner conditions of the country.  The crisis of today does not come by surprise, but has been building for years; yet, the autocratic rule of the EPRDF has recently come up against the greatest and most effective resistance of its 27 years rule, with its end in sight.

To the international community, the EPRDF cited double-digit economic growth, the unity of the people around its governance model of ethnic federalism, its role as a beacon of peace and stability and as a critically important partner in the War on Terror.

To most of the people of Ethiopia, the ruling party of the EPRDF is an authoritarian political coalition of four ethnic-based party members, controlled by one of the four, the Tigrayan Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF). The other members include the Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM), the Oromo Peoples Democratic Organization (OPDO), and the Southern Ethiopian Peoples Democratic Movement (SEPDM). These represent four of the nine regions in Ethiopia. Three out of four of the parties represent the one major ethnic group of the region they represent. Only the SEPDM has multiple ethnicities attached to them. In the last national election in 2015, the unpopular EPRDF won 100% of the seats.

This political arrangement leaves little representation for the majority of the 80 or more ethnic groups that make up Ethiopia. The TPLF, as the dominating party, plays favorites with those from their own ethnic group, the Tigray, who have access to opportunities, privileges and power, denied to most others. As a result, they dominate and control almost every sector of society, including the military, causing great resentment.

Political space has disappeared, opposition leaders and democratic voices have been jailed or forced to flee the country, independent civil society has been closed down through laws like the Charities and Societies Proclamation (CSO), land and resources have been grabbed, and economic advantages have been reserved for the entitled few, contributing to the perception of double-digit economic growth, despite the majority remaining in poverty.

The EPRDF has used deception, exaggeration, lies, threats and salesmanship to convince the international community that no one but the EPRDF could be trusted as a partner in the War on Terror in the Horn of Africa, nor capable of running the country. Repression of alternative voices created a handy vacuum to other alternatives to this autocratic regime.

THE EPRDF—ESPECIALLY TPLF CONTROL OF THE EPRDF— IS CRUMBLING BEFORE OUR EYES AS INCREASING PROTESTS CONTINUE WITH THE DEMAND FOR DEMOCRATIC RIGHTS

The repressive nature of the regime has been largely ignored in the past by the US and other members of the international community. Its core foundation—based on a type of ethnic-apartheid governance— has never been strongly challenged. The EPRDF’s claim to be the only ones capable of maintaining the stability of the country and of the Horn of Africa, have convinced the United States of America and international donor community to continuously prop up the weakening foundation of TPLF-dominated ERPDF rule, in spite of all its faults. Ironically, the critical flaws of the EPRDF system have been building over the last 27 years and they have now become the source of their own instability. The TPLF domination of the EPRDF is crumbling before our eyes and we are witnesses to that.  

 

The demand by the people for their freedom and rights has been intensifying over the last three years and shows no signs of diminishing.  The EPRDF has used lethal force against unarmed people, including many youth, which has resulted in the death of thousands of people. A state of emergency has been put into effect in the past with detrimental effects to the country. Though some want to call another state of emergency now; this time it is being challenged.

In the last two weeks, Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn has given his notice of resignation as prime minister and as the chair of the EPRDF. The people are worried about the future, especially because there has been a vacuum of leadership and significant fear that ethnic divisions will explode.

On a very positive note, in the last two week, the EPRDF has released thousands of political prisoners, including some of the strongest leaders and democratic spokespersons, although, thousands of other political prisoners still remain in custody. Yet, this is an encouraging development. We hope this newly taken direction will open up the alternative that did not exist earlier.

 

CALL TO THE PEOPLE FOR CALM

We know the future looks grim and that what happens next is unpredictable; yet, our history also tells us of other times Ethiopians have been tested for their survival as a people and a country. At these times, the people unified and responded in a way that led Ethiopia to stand together as one people, all created equally in the image of God. Those Ethiopians of the past give us a sense of who we are today.

 

We, in the SMNE, have called on the people to remain calm and restrained. We trust our people will us rise above the fears that Ethiopians will commit ethnic-based or religious sectarian violence. The EPRDF, including the former prime minister, Meles Zenawi, used this threat to sell outsiders on the need to continue to support the EPRDF. Yet, it is the EPRDF that is most likely to be the perpetrators; yet once started, violence could be ignited.

The EPRDF has incited fear that without them in charge, Ethiopia will descend into chaos. On the other hand, they have repeatedly incited conflict and division. This has been a key part of the narrative used to maintain EPRDF control; without ever acknowledging their own role in stirring up dissension or committing the acts themselves under hidden pretenses so as to blame others.

The Ethiopian people have shown an overwhelmingly strong commitment to peaceful demonstrations of protest, despite harsh crackdowns over the last three years, with only a few exceptions. When the EPRDF has tried to incite violence, on the majority of occasions, the people wisely have not responded as they expected.

We, the people of Ethiopia, have lived together for centuries. We are family and neighbors; not only sharing land, but sharing blood. Emotional outbursts of anger or revenge for injustice might surface here and there; but in general, our people impatiently, but non-violently, wait for justice and restoration of their institutions and rights.

We, in the SMNE, have also called on the Ethiopian people to take a stand to protect the Tigrayans, many who do not agree with the TPLF, but fear being targeted, as the TPLF has wrongly used their name to advance and protect their rule.

 

WE HAVE EMERGING LEADERS AS WELL AS MORE VOCAL LEADERS WHO SEE THE BIGGER PICTURE

We should also take note that Ethiopia is not without leaders. Some of these leaders may have been silenced, censored, or imprisoned in the past, but many more are emerging and taking a stand for justice for all Ethiopians.

We also know there are capable Ethiopians from every ethnicity, religious group and walk of life, who care about all the people of Ethiopia. They represent a growing number of Ethiopians who could sit down together tomorrow and come up with a plan for a dialogue, reconciliation and transitional plan for the country. Such a plan could bring greater peace and wellbeing; not only to Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa, but to the world.

Some of these leaders are those former political prisoners who were just released, as well as other esteemed leaders, elders, religious leaders, our women, and our youth who have given so much as champions of the struggle for democratic change. They could all play a significant role. We also have people in the Diaspora who could contribute, so there is no need to panic. Nor is there reason to listen to short-sighted narratives that attempt to persuade outsiders that the EPRDF is the only group capable of maintaining the peace, stability and the national interests of donor countries. New voices are rising up with new alternatives not readily available before.

What we are saying can be proven by the statements we recently heard from some of the newly released democratic leaders in the country, like Bekele Gerba, Eskinder Nega, Merera Gudina, Andualem Andarge, Muslim leaders and many more. They are calling for discipline among the people, to not destroy property and to protect each other as one people. Instead of hate or bitterness, these voices are calling for a unity around shared values and goals, thus enabling a peaceful transitional approach. This is our country at a crossroads and our people are being put to the test. With God’s help, Ethiopians can do it!

 

CAN WE WORK TOGETHER?

We believe reconciliation and restorative justice could mend much of the conflict between the people of Ethiopia.  We do not need to be enemies of each other. We are family, like brothers and sisters who disagree. For the sake of our descendants, we can solve this conflict peacefully. We should not be blinded to the humanity of each other. We will be judged by how we handle this crisis.

 

THE EPRDF COULD HELP CHANGE THE OUTCOME FOR GOOD

Right now, the EPRDF has made the right decision to release the political prisoners. It is a good step, but not good enough. They have to realize that the Ethiopia, for which we are fighting, will include them if we are able to bring justice, freedom and reconciliation to the country. It will also be a gift to their descendants as well as to ours.

We have called on those in the EPRDF, to work together to find a peaceful solution to this crisis. The EPRDF can totally change the future for the better by admitting that they have come to the end of their rule and by becoming willing contributors to a transition to genuine democracy. We highly caution the EPRDF from establishing military rule in the country as it could backfire. It is a dangerous alternative that could lead to destruction; however, a non-politicized military could play a positive role in protecting the people instead of protecting and prolonging a dying regime. The military is made up of our people. We have invited the military to be part of the solution for democratic change in Ethiopia.

 

A CALL TO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY

In the last few days, especially since the news of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn’s  resignation and the initial declaration of a state of emergency, we are pleased to see the international community clearly voicing its stand against it. We welcome this support; but yet, we call for more. We hope the international community can provide needed pressure on the TPLF/EPRDF to engage in an inclusive national dialogue resulting in the creation of a road map to a peaceful solution to the conflict and one which will bring robust democratic freedom and more sustainable peace to all Ethiopians. We urge the international community to strongly call for such a process to begin where by all stakeholders in Ethiopian affairs are meaningfully involved in a transparent process.

 

A CALL FOR A COMMON STATEMENT OF INTENT TO LAY OUT STEPS FOR THE DEMOCRATIC TRANSFORMATION OF ETHIOPIA

We also call for the development of a statement of intent from leaders that will begin the process leading to a national dialogue, reconciliation and robust democratic reforms. This is not about political party, but instead, it is about establishing a democratic foundation for the next steps necessary to begin an effective and sustainable transition to a free, just and reconciled Ethiopia.

 

INCLUSIVE DEMOCRACY: THIS IS THE ONLY REAL WAY OUT OF THIS CRISIS

 

The post A CALL TO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News|Breaking News: Your right to know!.

Why the state of emergency in Ethiopia could destabilise the Horn of Africa

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Dr. Yohannes Gedamu

Former Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn sent shock waves through the region when he abruptly tendered his resignation.

Desalegn said that he had made the decision to facilitate efforts towards political reforms which started with the release of political prisoners. But rather than pursue a reform agenda, the Ethiopian government followed his announcement by declaring a state of emergency. This not only jeopardises the regime’s apparent intent to institute democratic reforms, it also pits citizens against the security forces. And it’s already led to more violence, not stability.

state-of-emergency-satenaw-newsThe state of emergency is being defied in a number of regions. Citizens have protested in Gondar, which is in the opposition Amhara region, as well as the opposition stronghold of Nekemte which is in Oromia. Much of the Oromia region is also defying the emergency measures.

As a result, the regime has targeted the Oromia region, and its protesting youths who are collectively known as Qeerro in the Oromo language.

Despite the release of thousands of political prisoners and talk of reforms, the political climate remains more uncertain than ever. It’s now feared that any government measures to suppress ensuing chaos could result in more violence, and deaths.

Instability in Ethiopia could have repercussions across the region. Unrest in the country could have a domino effect in what is an already volatile part of the continent. It could also affect regional peace efforts because instability in one corner of the Horn of Africa could spread and destabilise the entire region. This is especially the case because Ethiopia is home to so many cross border communities.

Implications for the region

Ethiopia is influential in the region and across the continent. It is the second most populous country in Africa and one of the fastest growing economies in the world. It also hosts the African Union’s headquarters in its capital, Addis Ababa.

But its standing has been diminished by the political turmoil of the last few years when two of its largest ethnic groups, the Oromo and Amhara both started demanding political and economic equality. The ruling coalition’s responses to these demands has highlighted the fact that it isn’t committed to democratisation.

The risks for the region are significant. Unless the regime acts on political reforms to entrench democracy, equal distribution of resources and freedom of the press, Ethiopia – with more than 100 million citizens – could emerge as the largest politically unstable nation in an already volatile region.

An unstable Ethiopia could also affect peace efforts in neighbouring countries. For example, it’s role as a long standing mediator in the South Sudanese peace talks could suffer a setback.

And its army is also the only peacekeeping force in Abiye, an oil rich region that has been at the centre of the conflict between Sudan and South Sudan since 2011.

In addition, Ethiopia is second only to Bangladesh in the number of its troops involved in international peacekeeping. Across its South Eastern borders, it also maintains thousands of troops inside Somalia.

And although its role in Somalia has drawn criticism Ethiopia remains a critical ally to the US’s counter terrorism strategy in the region. Instability could also create a power vacuum that could affect the US-led anti-terror strategy.

Ultimately, an internal crisis in Ethiopia will affect the power balance with its arch rival Eritrea. After the Ethiopia-Eritrea war which ended in 2000, the two countries have remained engaged in a proxy war by supporting each others’ political opposition groups.

Cross-border communities

Most African states share cross-border societies. The Horn of Africa is no different. The Oromo for instance are a majority ethnic group in Ethiopia and also a minority in Kenya. The Nuer are South Sudan’s second largest ethnic group and also a minority in Ethiopia’s western Gambella region.

There are also Somalis in Ethiopia. They maintain strong ties with their clansmen in Somali, Djibouti and Kenya. The Afar ethnic group in Ethiopia are also minorities in Eritrea, and Djibouti.

A new influx of Ethiopian refuges into Kenya due to the recent massacre in Moyale townunderscores the fact that problems in the country are starting to affect cross border societies in the region. In fact, authorities and analysts in neighbouring Kenya are deeply concernedabout the situation.

Instability could also affect refugees in Ethiopia itself. The country hosts the second highest number of refugees in Africa. Asylum seekers from Eritrea, South Sudan and Somalia often seek refuge within its borders.

Next steps

There is still room to resuscitate democratic reforms and to create space for national dialogue and reconciliation. Given the potential ramifications of prolonged unrest in Ethiopia, it should be in the interests of the international community to promote peace and stability. To do this it must pressure the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front to suspend the state of emergency.

The international community must also stress that the regime needs to open its doors to the opposition and pave the way for a transitional government. In my opinion this is the only way the ruling coalition can play a critical role in pacifying the country and the region. And the only way it can have a political legacy worthy of praise.

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The Many Layers of the Ethiopia Crisis

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By Mohammed Ademo
March 20, 2018

Protests in Ethiopia are the culmination of a long-simmering series of grievances and demands for greater freedom, equity, and opportunity.

Ethiopia protest
Photo: Andrew Heavens.

After 3 years of relentless protests, Ethiopia started 2018 with rare good news. On January 3, Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn and his party pledged to release political prisoners and shut down the notorious Maekelawi detention center in Addis Ababa. In a 3-hour-long press conference, leaders of the ruling Ethiopian People‘s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) also took responsibility for the myriad of political challenges facing the country. The aim, EPRDF leaders said, was to foster national reconciliation and to widen democratic space. The announcement was roundly welcomed, including by a leery opposition, as a crucial step in the right direction.

A series of mixed signals followed. More than 6,000 political prisoners, including key opposition figures, journalists, and leaders of the country’s Muslim community, were released from prison. Not long after, on February 15, Hailemariam resigned saying he wanted to pave the way for reforms. It appeared that Africa’s second most populous nation was truly poised to turn a page on its repressive past. Not a day later, however, on February 16, authorities imposed a sweeping 6-month-long state of emergency. The decree was ratified by the EPRDF-controlled Parliament in a disputed vote on March 2.

More than 60 casualties have been reported since the state of emergency came into effect. In southern Ethiopia, thousands have fled violence and sought shelter and urgent humanitarian assistance in Kenya. The latest displacement is in addition to the more than 1.2 million people internally displaced, most of them in 2017, by a tit-for-tat border conflict between Oromia and Somali States, two of the largest of Ethiopia‘s nine linguistically based regional states. The humanitarian, security, and political crises are the most serious facing Ethiopia since 1991, when the communist regime of Mengistu Haile Mariam was overthrown.

To tackle these and other challenges, the 36-member executive leadership of the EPRDF held a series of high-stakes meetings. While they agree there is a problem, they are divided over how to respond to growing public pressure and ethnic discord. As a result, once a unified vanguard party, the EPRDF is now riven by a bitter power struggle. The heightened jostling for control of the party’s policy direction has brought to the fore long-suppressed questions of inequity in the EPRDF.

How Did Ethiopia Get to this Point?

To understand the current state of flux in Ethiopia, consider the EPRDF’s history. Founded in 1989, the EPRDF is, in theory, a coalition of four ethnically based political organizations: the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM), the Oromo People’s Democratic Organization (OPDO), and the Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM).

At the time of the EPRDF’s founding, Mengistu Haile Mariam’s communist regime was on its last leg. The Cold War was coming to an end. Having set its sights on political power in Addis Ababa, the TPLF, which had led the armed insurgency against Mengistu, needed partners to cross into the vast region south of its base in northern Ethiopia. So it orchestrated the creation of the ANDM, the OPDO, and later the SEPDM.

Once the EPRDF came to power, a multinational federation, which promised self-determination for every nation, nationality, and people in Ethiopia, was forged as a compromise between ethnonationalists and unionists who favored a centralized Ethiopian polity. This approach, explicitly organizing the Ethiopian state along ethnic lines, was a stark departure from the emphasis on a single Ethiopian national identity promoted by the Mengistu regime and Emperor Haile Selassie before it. The 1995 Constitution called for decentralization and a significant degree of self-rule for states, promises that remained largely on paper.

From the beginning, the EPRDF proved to be a coalition of unequal partners. For example, each member party has 45 representatives in the powerful 180-member EPRDF Council, even though ethnic Tigrayans constitute just 6 percent of the country’s population. Moreover, the TPLF enjoys absolute control of the military and the security establishment as well as key economic sectors. The TPLF also controlled the office of Prime Minister until 2012, and the Foreign Ministry until 2015.

The power imbalance gave rise to charges of undue Tigrayan influence over the country’s political life. TPLF leaders vacillated between acknowledgement and entitlement, given the party’s outsized role in liberating Ethiopia from the tyranny of the Mengistu regime. The ascendancy of the minority Tigrayans displaced from power the more populous Amhara, who had played the dominant role in Ethiopian political life for most of the previous century.

This Tigrayan dominance was further fortified through strict party discipline known as democratic centralism, which encouraged constituent parties to engage in vigorous internal deliberations but mandated all to adhere to the ruling party’s policy direction once a vote was taken. Moreover, as EPRDF leaders have acknowledged, the TPLF maintained covert influence inside the EPRDF by propping up and empowering loyalists. These grievances gradually gave way to growing resentment against the TPLF and, more recently, ethnic Tigrayans.

Context for Ongoing Protests

The Ethiopian protests are the culmination of a long-building series of grievances. After the disputed 2005 elections in which the EPRDF resorted to brutal violence to maintain power, the party embarked on a developmental state model, characterized by active state intervention in the economy as a way to boost its political legitimacy. But this effort was accompanied by a heightened muzzling of critics and the media as well as controlling access to information. It also meant the institutionalization of the instruments of repression.

Ethiopians in Addis Ababa protest the killing of Oromo students and expansion of the city into Oromo land
Ethiopians in May 2014 protest against the killing of Oromo students and expansion of the city into Oromo land. Photo: Gadaa.com.

Ethiopians in May 2014 protest against the killing of Oromo students and expansion of the city into Oromo land. Photo: Gadaa.com.

While the EPRDF faced some level of opposition at every turn in its 25-year rule, the floodgates opened in 2014 when the Oromo, the largest ethnic group in Ethiopia, began protesting against the government’s land policy. The protests coalesced around a single Oromo axiom: “The matter of land is the matter of life.” The specific trigger was an urban master plan, which sought to expand Addis Ababa’s physical boundaries deep into the surrounding Oromia State. Surprisingly, the first sign of resistance came from within the OPDO, a one-time docile party seen among the Oromo as the TPLF’s puppet.

The EPRDF seemed to be caught off guard by the scale of the protests. Security forces responded to largely peaceful protests using disproportionate force. This engendered more outrage and protests. Many dozens of people were killed and thousands arrested.

Protests briefly subsided ahead of the May 2015 national elections, in which the EPRDF and its partners claimed 100 percent of the seats in Parliament. However, Oromo protests returned when authorities attempted to forge ahead with the Addis Ababa expansion plan. A massive security dragnet ensued, leading to the deaths of even more people and the arrest of tens of thousands. By then, the initial opposition to the “land grab” and concerns over the dispossession of Oromo farmers from Addis Ababa had grown to include protesting historic Oromo marginalization, the lack of freedom and economic opportunities, and demanding the release of political prisoners.

Under pressure, authorities shelved the urban master plan and made other cosmetic changes, including a cabinet reshuffle, which saw Tigrayans ceding control of the Foreign Ministry. But EPRDF leaders left popular demands for greater democratic rights, equal economic opportunities, and state autonomy virtually untouched.

In October 2016, the protests were curbed with the declaration of a state of emergency. When martial law was lifted 10 months later, the protests returned evermore vigorously. Crucially, the protests had by then spread to other regions, particularly Amhara State and a number of localities in the southern region.

Some of the grievances were localized but the overarching theme was the same: the gap between constitutional guarantees for democracy versus the existing centralized state and authoritarian party that controlled all aspects of life. For example, in Wolkait, an administrative district in Tigray State, ethnic Amharas wanted to be part of the Amhara State and send their children to school in Amharic. A two-decade effort to settle the matter through legal and political means was repeatedly frustrated. Those frustrations fed into wider resentment over Tigrayan hegemony.

Ethiopia protest
Photo: Elvert Barnes.

In Oromia, the epicenter of the opposition, the OPDO faced a legitimacy crisis. It was buckling under the weight of protests and accusations of corruption and incompetence from other EPRDF partners. This pressure helped bring to power a new generation of OPDO party cadres who were not wedded to the legacy of armed struggle. They made bold overtures to Oromo nationalism and embraced most of the protesters’ grievances, vowing to reform their party and the EPRDF to address the Oromo question or to join the protesters if their reform efforts failed.

As the OPDO positioned itself as a quasi-opposition party, the TPLF was also trying to clean its own house. Facing inevitable decline and waning influence, the TPLF held a 35-day-long evaluation session in October 2017 that culminated in demotions of top party officials and a rare public display of self-criticism.

It is against this backdrop that EPRDF leaders, in large part to meet the OPDO’s demands, agreed to free political prisoners in January 2018. The freed prisoners were welcomed by a groundswell of public support and homecoming celebrations.

It is also important to recognize the leading role that youth, having come of age under the EPRDF’s one-party rule, have played in the protests. This underscores the major demographic transformations that have accompanied the calls for change. Ethiopia had an estimated total population of 52 million in 1990. It is now projected to be over 105 million with more than 70 percent of the population under the age of 30. Simultaneous to this was a rural-to-urban migration of young people. However, the pace of local job creation has not matched the number of college graduates. The influx in mobile phone usage and improved access to communications technology, meanwhile, means that this generation is far more connected to one another and to the outside world than any before it. These factors have all contributed to the resiliency of the protests.

The Way Forward

The EPRDF and, indeed, Ethiopia are at a crossroads. Resilient demands for greater freedom, equity, and opportunity indicate that the status quo is untenable. Reliance on military and security measures to quell opposition have proven futile. The EPRDF’s diagnosis of the problem in January was largely correct: the answer to Ethiopia’s malaise is greater democratic space and national reconciliation. This will require vacating the emergency decree, which has proven counterproductive to the party’s stated reform plans. It will also be necessary to address the root problems: the inequity within the governing coalition and the need for legitimacy.

A priority for reestablishing stability, therefore, should be to engage opposition parties in good faith negotiations setting forth a path for genuine popular dialogue and reconciliation. This process would entail freeing all political prisoners and setting in motion legal and political reforms to undo some of the most coercive measures that have brought the party and country to the precipice of collapse. These reforms would include the repeal of the Freedom of the Mass Media and Access to Information Proclamation, the Charities and Societies Proclamation, and the Anti-Terrorism Proclamation. These sweeping pieces of legislation have been used to curtail opposition activities, muzzle independent journalists, and silence government critics.

“A priority for reestablishing stability, therefore, should be to engage opposition parties in good faith negotiations setting forth a path for genuine popular dialogue and reconciliation.”

Through heavy state involvement in the economy, Ethiopia has registered modest growth over the last decade. Events of the last several years illustrate that this authoritarian developmental model has backfired and is coming to a dead end. Continued efforts to subdue an increasingly restive population through repressive measures now risk unraveling the economy and the country‘s fragile federation.

It is remarkable that despite the mounting grievances, the protests have largely remained peaceful. This suggests the crisis can be resolved without widespread instability. However, the continued tug-of-war between protesters and the security sector is testing public patience. It will also embolden those who insist on armed rebellion as the only way to bring about change—a quintessential story for Ethiopia, which in its long history has never had a peaceful transfer of power.

All parties committed to Ethiopia’s stability should emphasize that only genuine dialogue and reform can avert a further deterioration.

Mohammed Ademo is a freelance journalist and a Horn of Africa analyst.

Africa Center Expert

Joseph Siegle, Director of Research
Additional Resources
Africa Center for Strategic Studies, “Term Limits for African Leaders Linked to Stability,” Infographic, February 23, 2018.
Mohammed Ademo and Hassen Hussein, “A Placeholder Prime Minister Departs. What Comes Next?” New York Times, February 18, 2018.
Joseph Siegle, “Constitutional Design: Vital but Insufficient for Conflict Management in Africa,” Ethnopolitics, Spring 2016.
Joseph Siegle, “Why Term Limits Matter for Africa,” International Security Network, July 3, 2015
Steven Livingston, “Africa’s Information Revolution: Implications on Crime, Policing, and Citizen Security,” Africa Center Research Paper, No. 5, November 2013.
Joseph Siegle, “Managing Volatility with the Expanded Access to Information in Fragile States” in Diplomacy, Development, and Security in the Information Age, Shanthi Kalathil, ed., 2013.
Africa Center for Strategic Studies, “Africa and the Arab Spring: A New Era of Democratic Expectations,” Africa Center Special Report, No. 1, November 2011.
Clement Mweyang Aapenguo, “Misinterpreting Ethnic Conflicts,” Africa Security Brief, No. 4, Africa Center for Strategic Studies, April, 2010.

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Rape and genital maiming/mutilation as a torture method in Ethiopian Prisons?

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Evidence that prisoners of conscience, critical journalists, and activists have been abused

መረጃ አድራሻ:-
ግርማ ብርሃኑ Girma Berhanu
የትምህርትና ልዩ ትምህርት ትምህርት ክፍል(ፕሮፌሰር)
Department of Education and Special Education (Professor)
ጎተንበርግ ዩኒቨርሲቲ University of Gothenburg
.. Box 300
ጎተበርግ ስዊደን Göteborg, Sweden
E-mail: Girma.Berhanu@ped.gu.se

Abstract

In recent years, it has come to be recognized that men and women activists, prisoners of conscience, and critical journalists in Ethiopia have been sexually abused in detention as a method of torture. We do not know exactly how common the abuse is.  Few former prisoners are willing to disclose their experience. Rape, genital maiming/mutilation, and sexual violence including sodomy are under-reported by both men and women. Male survivors of sexual violence are less likely than women and girls to disclose assaults (Callender & Dartnall 2011)[1] due to a combination of cultural and religious reasons manifested through shame, confusion, and guilt. This study uses personal accounts and anecdotal evidence to investigate the alleged abuses. The data indicate that genital maiming/mutilation and rape have been practiced in an attempt to silence dissent and humiliate the victims. This study highlights the urgent need for the international community and local human rights organizations to address seriously the needs of victims of sexual violence such as genital maiming, rape, and other obscene and sadistic, ill treatment in prisons.  The human cost of the silencing and the marginalization of survivors can only be estimated at present.

Summary and Preliminary Conclusion

The project is underway and the conclusions that we can draw from this work are tentative. For many years there have been rampant rumors that prison officials and interrogators in Ethiopia abuse prisoners of conscience, journalists, and members of the opposition party. These prisoners have been exposed to unspeakable violation and are at the same time incapable of public expression in Ethiopia where sexual abuse is a taboo subject. Rape and the maiming of genital organs as a method of torture are part of this tragedy. Abuses are not only sexual. They are multifold: dehydration, starvation, and solitary confinement; refusal to provide basic medical care; ignoring cries for help; and varied forms of psychological abuse.

The objectives of this study are (a) to document the magnitude of this tragedy; (b) to create public awareness; (c) to assist the victims; and (d) to encourage survivors to come forward and share their stories with researchers and human right activists. As there is no possibility of obtaining recognizable justice in Ethiopia, this documentation is essential to helping the victims gain access to international judicial mechanisms. Survivors could file suit and pursue criminal prosecution and trials for both the perpetrators and those who ordered the sexual torture. It has been demonstrated on many occasions that the federal judiciary in Ethiopia lacks the independence and determination to prosecute these crimes. As a result, an international system would provide hope to the survivors and their families in pursuing criminal prosecution.[2]

There are a number of challenges to realizing the above objectives and goals. The first is lack of credible evidence. It is next to impossible to induce survivors to talk about their ordeals, so most of the evidence and data in this report are anecdotal. Two of the personal accounts lack rigor because survivors were not willing to share their experiences in detail. A second challenge lies in the ability to prove systematic abuse. Zawati observes, “The International Criminal Court Statute states that sexual abuse is a crime against humanity if they can prove that it was done in a systematic way”. [3] Theoretically, one ought to regard these atrocities or acts in their context and verify whether they may be regarded as part of an overall policy or a consistent pattern of an inhumanity, or whether they instead constitute isolated or sporadic acts of cruelty.[4] The limited data in this study indicate that the atrocities are planned, systematic, procedural, and omnipresent. By omnipresent we mean that the abuses appear to be present in all prisons at all times where activists and opposition party members are incarcerated. The anti-terrorism proclamation (A Proclamation on anti-terrorism Proclamation No. 652/2009) [5]has provided an instrument to crush dissent and silence opposition parties. The proclamation punishes free expression, a violation of international law. The consequence is painfully real for journalists and activists who face imprisonment for exercising basic rights.  They have been branded by the Government as traitors and terrorists.

The study findings show that obscene and sadistic forms of torture are used in prison. The purpose of the abuse is purely to humiliate the victim and to intimidate others.

Sexual abuse has consequences far beyond the event itself. Harms include physical damage, psychological insult, sexually transmitted diseases, depression, and intrusive memories. In a country where psychological and psychiatric treatment, counselling, and emotional support are not common, it is very difficult for the survivors to reassemble their lives and to function as socially adequate and occupationally competent citizens.[6] The gravity of this problem can be even more complicated among male victims because of cultural beliefs and deep seated traditions.[7],[8]

A cardinal reflection and overwhelming surprise in this study is the widespread rumor among Ethiopians that sodomy is also practiced in prison by government agencies as a method of torture.[9] More research and investigation is required to substantiate such rumors. At present, the data are quite limited and diffuse. However, other forms of sexual abuse, such as genital maiming, rape, obscene and sadistic, ill treatment, are documented practice.

[1]Callender, T. and E. Dartnall (2011) “Mental health responses for victims of sexual violence and rape in resource poor settings.” SVRI Briefing Paper, Sexual Violence Research Initiative, Medical Research Council, Pretoria, South Africa (e-version).

[2]http://justiceforiran.org/english-sexual-abuse-and-torture-of-politically-active-women-in-prisons-crimes-against-humanityshadi-sadr/?lang=en

[3]Zawati, Hilmi (2007) “Impunity or immunity: wartime male rape and sexual torture as a crime against humanity.” Torture, 17(1): 27-47.

[4] http://www.iranhrdc.org/english/human-rights-documents/ngo-reports/justice-for-iran/3398-sexual-abuse-and-torture-of-politically-active-women-in-prisons-crimes-against-humanity-shadi-sadr.html

[5] https://chilot.me/2011/01/a-proclamation-on-anti-terrorism-proclamation-no-6522009/

[6] Noll-Hussong, Michael et al. (2010) “Aftermath of sexual abuse history on adult patients suffering from chronic functional pain syndromes: an fMRI pilot study.” Journal of Psychosomatic Research, 68: 483-487.

[7] Lewis, Dustin (2009) “Unrecognized victims: sexual violence against men in conflict settings under international law.” Wisconsin International Law Journal, 27(1): 1-50.

[8] Sorsoli, Lynn et al. (2008) “ ‘I keep that hush-hush:’ male survivors of sexual abuse and the challenges of disclosure.” Journal of Counselling Psychology, 55(30): 333-345.

[9] Walker, Jayne, John Archer and Michelle Davies (2005) “Effects of rape on men: A descriptive analysis.” Archives of Sexual Behavior, 34 (1): 69-80.

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Ethiopia command post claims Ethiopians who fled army’s killing “returning home”; threatens NGOs, media against “spreading false information”

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Etenesh Abera
Addis Standard

Addis Abeba, March 21/2018 – In a statement released this afternoon, the secretariat of the command post established to oversee the implementation of Ethiopia’s latest state of emergency, said Ethiopians who have fled in to the Kenyan border following the army’s killing of civilians in Moyale town, have “started to return home”. It also warned what it called “NGOs and some media organizations” which are spreading false information to refrain from doing so.

The statement from the command post stands in sharp contrast with reports from Kenyan and other international media organizations, including the BBC, which are reporting from the makeshift camps on the ground in Moyale, where above 10, 000 Ethiopian refugees are currently seeking help. It also contradicts latest report released by the  UNHCR Kenya office, which said Monday this week that “nearly 10,000 Ethiopians seek asylum in Moyale, Kenya following violence back home.”

The other organization providing a constant flow of vital information and humanitarian support, The Kenya Red Cross Society (KRCS), has told the BBC yesterday that 26 women have given birth in their makeshift camps where they are being offered with basic supplies including food and water. KRCS also said there were about 600 pregnant women among the 10, 557 refugees who have arrived in to the Kenyan side of Moyale. 80% them are women and children.

It is not clear which NGOs and media the statement from the command post is addressing, but it said “NGOs and media which have either their own or other anti-peace organizations agenda are spreading information that are baseless and far from the truth.” It threatened these NGOs and media organizations to refrain from their acts or face the consequence. “If they are not refraining from doing do, all the necessary legal actions would be taken against them.”

Without providing numbers, the statement also said that in collaboration with local elders, Abba Geddas, and members of the command post “many of those who have displaced have started to return home. The effort will continue,” it said.

However, many of those interviewed by various media in Moyale said they do not feel safe to return back home.

On March 14, the state run EBC said 39, 825 Ethiopians were displaced after the army’s killing of nearly a dozen civilians by the military on March 10. The report said the displaced were from 5 different kebele’s including Shewa Ber in Moyale town, where the killing of civilians took place.

Members of the Ethiopian army responsible for the killing were operating under the supervision of the command post established to oversee the current state of emergency. In a statement published on the state run EBC, the command post secretariat, led by defense minister Siraj Fegessa, said the killing happened when five members of the army acted based on a “mistaken intelligence report.” It also said the army was pursuing members of the banned Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), who “crossed in to the Ethiopian side.” The statement offered no details but said five members of the army were disarmed and were under investigations.

AS

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For Immediate Release … Rep. Coffman on Upcoming H.Res. 128 Vote

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For Immediate Release CONTACT: Daniel Bucheli
March 21, 2018 (202) 213-8660

Rep. Coffman on Upcoming H.Res. 128 Vote

Washington, D.C. – Today, U.S. Representative Mike Coffman (R-CO) released the following statement after receiving notification that the House of Representatives will hold a vote this April on House Resolution 128, titled ‘Supporting respect for human rights and encouraging inclusive governance in Ethiopia’:

“Today’s announcement that the House will take a vote on H.Res.128 this April, is a testament to countless hours of hard work, by all those involved, and the unwavering fight for the respect of human rights and the rule of law in Ethiopia. Hundreds of thousands of dollars spent by the Ethiopian government proved futile in the fight to do what is right. I join the many voices back home and Ethiopia in thanking Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy for his support in getting this to the House floor.”

 

Background: Representative Coffman has been a strong supporter of House Resolution 128, which unanimously passed the House Foreign Affairs Committee in July 2017. The resolution condemns the Ethiopian security services for their use of excessive force that has resulted in the deaths of protesters and wrongful arrests of activist and political opponents of the regime.

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Connect with Congressman Coffman:

 

 

 

House Resolution 128 Scheduled for a Vote

Today, Amhara Association of America received communication from the Office of the Majority Leader that during Secretary Tillerson’s visit to Ethiopia, the Ethiopian Government made no commitment to allow the United Nations access to investigate human rights abuses in the country. Therefore, the Majority Leader has decided to schedule House Resolution 128 for a vote before the full House the week of April 9th.

  1. Res. 128: Supporting Respect for Human Rights and Encouraging Inclusive Governance in Ethiopia is a monumental achievement for Amharas who have worked tirelessly for two years to shed light on the human rights atrocities Amharas have endured under the TPLF regime. H. Res. 128 acknowledges the dire humanitarian conditions in Ethiopia, the lack of political space for opposition parties, the decimation of non-governmental organizations, and calls on the State Department and Treasury to apply sanctions to individuals and organizations who have committed gross human rights violations as provided in the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Accountability Act.

Amhara Association of America strongly believes H. Res. 128 will help move Ethiopia towards improvements in human rights, democracy, and stability.

Amhara Association of America would like to thank Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy for his leadership and support for the Ethiopian people.

Amhara Association of America would like to thank Chairman Chris Smith for introducing H. Res. 128 and his continued support, friendship, and commitment to bring democracy to Ethiopia.

Amhara Association of America would like to thank Congressman Coffman for being the champion of H. Res. 128 and the Ethiopian people. Congressman Coffman put his political capital and the resources of his office behind H. Res. 128. We are forever indebted.

Amhara Association of America is coordinating a National Amhara Advocacy Campaign to bring additional co-sponsors for H. Res. 128. Participating organizations include:

Amhara Professionals Union (APU) Amhara Association in Seattle

Amhara People’s Civic Organization, Inc. (TX) San Diego Amhara Organization, Inc.

DMV Amhara Community Boston Amhara Organization

We have successfully added seven co-sponsors since the campaign began in February 2018.

Amhara Association of America asks all Amharas to join the National Amhara Advocacy Campaign and request their representative to co-sponsor H. Res. 128.

Together, we can make a difference for Amharas and all Ethiopians!!!

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When It Is Not Killing, The TPLF Is Thinking Hard as to Which Candidate Would Make Good Puppet Prime Minister

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After playing cruel and lawless games and treating Ethiopians worse than fascist Graziani did for the past 27 Years, the ethnocentric bosses are facing a popular uprising by Ethiopians who are determined to remove them for good and establish an accountable democratic government that would never kill or torture them.

Corrupt TPLF is used to having a puppet prime minister who would do anything his TPLF mafia bosses tell him to do. Former Prime Mister Hailemariam Desalegne was considered a TPLF messenger boy rather than a man with real power. That sentiment by the public was validated when the former PM himself openly admitted to his peers that he was functioning at his position in the dark and knew nothing about Ethiopia’s internal affairs. Ethiopians were stunned when he appeared on TV to appease his TPLF bosses announcing that he ordered the military to act on innocent demonstrators. Many Ethiopians were expecting him to resign when more than 800 Irreecha celebrators were killed in a single day. His moral compass was tested and questioned so many times while he was in his office and he never tried to stop killing and torturing of many political prisoners. Many say he didn’t care about most of those critical issues, as he was well controlled by his TPLF masters.

It will be very hard to expect the TPLF to change after 27 years of reckless and autocratic rule, so unless the criteria changes this time for some unknown reason, the basic criteria to be a PM in Ethiopia is

  1. To be an ardent admirer of the late divider in chief and the devil himself, Meles Zenawi
  2. To not care about democratic rights for Ethiopians and look the other way when atrocities are committed by the TPLF. He should accept and approve the torturing, killing, and imprisonment of Ethiopians who ask for political rights.
  3. To not say or do anything to stop the TPLF looting the country. He should quietly facilitate all looting activities whenever they request him to do so.
  4. To always talk about the nonexistent Multi-Party System established by the TPLF.
  5. Not question the motif of TPLF leaders, even if TPLF activity results in complete destruction of the country and its people including displacements, land grabbing, environmental destructions etc., as far as the activities benefit TPLF leaders.

So, let us see the choices TPLF is facing

  1. Debretsion G. Michael (PhD): Trained in information technology. He is the current chairman of the TPLF who is famous for traveling to foreign land for prostitution at the expense of poor Ethiopian tax payers. People in his own circle say he can not manage himself well let alone manage a country
  2. Demeke Mekonen:A biologist by training and a former teacher. A member of the Amhara National Democratic movement (ANDM) who is currently a deputy prime minister. He is known to be loyal to Tigrians embedded by the TPLF in ANDM including Bereket Simon. He was allegedly slapped by Debretsion G. Michael during arguments which may make him one of the TPLF’s favorites.
  3. Siraj Fergessa: A puppet Defense Minister, educated in forestry and leadership. He is a member of the south Ethiopian Peoples’ Democratic Front (SEPDF) who was instructed by the corrupt and ruthless TPLF General Samora Yunis to assume the position of Head of State of Emergency. Siraj would say or do anything, as far as he is provided with a car, food and shelter and his family is taken care of.
  4. Shiferaw Shigute: Currently the minister of education and chairman of the Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM). Trained in accounting and leadership, he is a TPLF loyalist who would do anything to appease his TPLF bosses.
  5. Workneh Gebeyehu Negawo: The current minister of foreign affairs and former federal police commissioner who’s’ real name is “Workneh Gebeyehu Woldekidan”. He is well known as one of the Tigrians embedded in the OPDO by the TPLF. Workneh is implicated in a lot of TPLF related crimes. He would do anything to get the position, including shamelessly begging the Americans to push for his election.
  6. Abiye Ahmed (PhD): An engineer, cryptologist, and current chairman of the OPDO. He is also known as the founder of the Internet Security Agency in Ethiopia. Dr. Abiye is one of the EPRDF politicians who have finally realized the effect of TPLFs disastrous leadership over the past 27 years and bravely defied TPLF divide and rule tactics. Whether he is elected or not Ethiopians give him credit for his recent remarks and efforts to heal wounds and unite a nation divided by the TPLF.

Whoever the choice may be, Ethiopians have made it clear that another puppet Prime Minster who can be pushed, spanked and slapped around by the TPLF would be unacceptable. The EPRDF should select a PM this time to make sure that there won’t be another TPLF puppet in the office and to immediately start a political dialogue and negotiate with all stakeholders in and out of the country, including groups like the Ethiopian National Movement (ENM) and freedom fighting forces like Patriotic Gibot-7. Until that is realized Ethiopians inside the country and the diaspora should continue to fight to get rid of the TPLF. Ethiopians would never settle for less than removing the TPLF from power and establish a democratic and accountable government

 

For Ethiopians To Be Free, The TPLF Must Go

NY/NJ Ethiopians Task Force (www.ethionynj.com)

 

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22th Adwa Anniversary in Dallas and Ft. Worth – March 25, 2018

Despite government approval, still no funds for Ethiopian immigration

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In repeat of 2017’s challenges, last week‘s budget did not allocate money for integrating the community in Israel, delaying flights again

Ethiopian Jews make matzah by hand in the synagogue in Gondar, Ethiopia on March 21, 2018. (courtesy)

The 2019 budget approved by the Knesset last Thursday does not include funds for airlifting Ethiopian Jews to Israel, despite a government decision to bring approximately 1,000 Ethiopians Jews per year.

Similar budget delays have plagued Ethiopian Jewish immigration in recent years, and last year there was a six-month hiatus in the flights for Ethiopian Jewish immigrants.

“I am asking for the government to renew the aliyah [immigration to Israel] process immediately,” demanded MK Avraham Neguise (Likud). “Our brothers and sisters are in very difficult situations. Most of the people waiting have first-degree relatives in Israel.”

Last month, the Prime Minister’s Office announced that the Interior Ministry was preparing the list of 1,000 Ethiopian Jews approved for immigration in 2018.

But the state budget did not include the approximately NIS 200 million ($57 million) needed to absorb the 1,300 immigrants planned to arrive over the year.

Women in Gondar, Ethiopia, check flour in preparation for making matzah for the Passover holiday on March 21, 2018. (courtesy)

The Jews left behind in Ethiopia are classified as Falashmura, a term for people whose ancestors converted to Christianity, often under duress, generations ago.

Because the Interior Ministry does not consider the Falashmura to be Jewish, they cannot immigrate under the Law of Return and therefore must get special permission from the government to move to Israel. Critics fear that tens of thousands of Ethiopians could claim eligibility under the process.

Neguise is in negotiations with the Prime Minister’s Office and hopes to secure funding at a special cabinet meeting, though he expressed frustration that the Ethiopian immigration issue needs to be advocated each year anew in order to receive the budget. A spokesman for the Prime Minister’s Office said Netanyahu had instructed that the issues be raised at the next meeting of the Ministerial Committee on the Integration of Israeli Citizens of Ethiopian Descent, but no date has been set for a meeting.

Members of Gondar’s Jewish community attend gathering hosted by a cross-party delegation of Knesset members to Ethiopia, March 3, 2017. (Courtesy)

There are approximately 8,000 Jews in Ethiopia who are waiting to emigrate, 80 percent of whom have first-degree relatives in Israel. In 2018, the list of approved immigrants focused on approximately 1,000 parents who have children in Israel.

“The government of Israel must dry the tears of these parents, of their sons and daughters, of their sisters and brothers, and immediately stop this discriminatory policy,” said Neguise.

Activists have accused the Interior Ministry of racism and inefficiency for its handling of the Ethiopian immigration process.

Although the government unanimously approved the immigration of all the remaining Jews from Ethiopia in November 2015, the decision faltered three months later when the Prime Minister’s Office refused to implement the program because the NIS 1 billion ($284 million) it said was needed to fund the absorption process was not in the state budget over five years, approximately NIS 200 million per year.

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news Unexplained internet blackout in Ethiopia

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Abdur Rahman Alfa Shaban

ethio-telecom-satenaw-newsInternet services have been cut off in much of Ethiopia’s largest regional state, Oromia, the region’s television network reported on Tuesday.

According to the Oromia Broadcasting Network (OBN), the blackout which has lasted some two weeks has affected universities and businesses in the region.

Ethiopia’s internet is in the hands of a state monopoly outfit, Ethio Telecom, the operator has yet to give a reason for the situation.

Internet freedom reports have indicated that much of the country is usually stifled with regards to internet access with the capital Addis Ababa enjoying unfettered access.

Activists have slammed the government repeatedly for cutting off the internet because they wanted to control the spread of information and materials relating to anti-government protests and human rights abuse.

Ethiopia routinely cuts the internet chiefly for political reasons but also for the academic. To forestall the leakage of key university entrance exams, the authorities blocked the internet in 2016 and last year.

Ethio Telecom was in November last year named the continent’s largest mobile operator. According to IT Web’s report, with over 57 million mobile subscribers as at November 2017, Ethio Telecom had beaten MTN Nigeria to become Africa’s largest in terms of its mobile customer base.
“Ethio Telecom of Ethiopia is now the largest mobile operator in Africa in terms of subscriptions, with 57.34 million mobile subscriptions at end-2Q17.

“Ethiopia is also one of the very few African countries that has not liberalised its telecoms market and introduced competition, so Ethio Telecom has a monopoly,” a sector expert was quoted to have said.

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EGYPT PULSE Egypt unmoved on Ethiopia’s plan to fill Renaissance Dam reservoir

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CAIRO — Abdel Mahmoud Abdel Halim, Sudan’s ambassador to Egypt, issued an invitation on March 13 to the Egyptian government for an April 4-5 tripartite meeting, along with Ethiopia, to discuss the filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) reservoir. The invitation was extended to foreign affairs and irrigation ministers as well as, for the first time, security and intelligence officials.

The Ethiopian government had formally handed over to Egypt and Sudan in mid-February its unilateral plan for filling the dam reservoir amid stalled technical and political talks with Egypt and Sudan. So far, disagreements have hindered studies on the dam’s impact and all three states have failed to agree on issues involving filling and operating the dam.

Gedion Asfaw, head of the Ethiopian team to the Tripartite National Committee (TNC), told Al-Monitor, “The [filling] plan was sent in an official letter from the Ethiopian minister of water to Egypt, and we will not stop providing information and disclosing our plan. We have asked for a meeting of [TNC] technicians to find the best solution, so as not to cause serious damage.”

Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia suspended technical talks in November 2017 after failing to reach agreement on the inception report for assessing the hydrological, environmental and economic impacts of the mega project on the downstream countries. The consultants BRL and Artelia received the contracts for the assessment studies.

Both Sudan and Ethiopia rejected the boundaries for measuring the dam’s impacts proposed in the consultants’ inception report and called for amendments to it. The report established them as the area from the dam site in Ethiopia to the Nile Delta at the Mediterranean Sea in Egypt, but Sudan and Ethiopia want the assessments to extend only from the GERD to the Aswan High Dam. Egypt objects to any amendments. Egyptian studies indicate that the dam will have negative impacts on the Delta, one being higher soil salinity, and therefore Cairo is demanding a broader assessment zone.

On the differences that halted the technical talks, Asfaw said, “The TNC experts had to comment on the inception report, but Egypt, which did not make any comment, rejected the comments of Ethiopia and Sudan.” He further explained, “In our comments, we emphasized the need for the consultants to abide by the contracts signed in September 2016. We also proposed various filling scenarios according to the flood or drought situation along the river, taking into account the concerns of Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia.”

Asfaw continued, “Issues such as the effect of the dam on soil salinity in the Nile Delta in Egypt are not included in the transboundary impact assessment systems agreed upon in the contracts signed with the consultants. There are, however, other points that were agreed upon, such as the impact on agriculture and lands irrigated by the Nile waters in the downstream countries.”

Affirming Egypt’s stance on Ethiopia’s plan for filling the reservoir, an Egyptian government official requesting anonymity and knowledgeable on Nile Basin affairs told Al-Monitor, “Egypt remains committed to the Declaration of Principles on the GERD, which is the only official document governing Egypt’s relationship with Ethiopia on this issue.”

Principle V of the declaration, signed in March 2015, states, “The three countries, in the spirit of cooperation, will utilize the final outcomes of the joint studies, to be conducted as per the recommendations of the International Panel of Experts Report and agreed upon by the TNC, to: a) Agree on guidelines and rules on the first filling of GERD which shall cover all different scenarios, in parallel with the construction of GERD.”

“There will be no official response to the Ethiopian plan at the moment,” the Egyptian official said. “The meeting of foreign ministers, ministers of irrigation and intelligence chiefs should move forward on the studies that Cairo sees as the only way to prove in an impartial manner the GERD’s impact.”

Rawia Tawfik, assistant professor at the Faculty of Economics and Political Science at Cairo University and researcher at the German Development Institute, told Al-Monitor, “The unilateral move by Ethiopia undermines the Declaration of Principles and the defined track for setting the rules on the GERD filling and operation.” She explained that the agreement on filling and operation rules must be discussed jointly. “The filling plan cannot be submitted by one party,” Tawfik emphasized.

“The letter [by being sent] may mean that Ethiopia has no intention of talking about compensation. In the filling plan it submitted, it is not clear whether Ethiopia will address any damage to the two downstream states during the GERD filling and operation periods.”

Khaled Abu-Zeid, director of the Water Resources Program at the Cairo-based Arab Water Council, told Al-Monitor, “In parallel with the Ethiopian filling plan, the operational plan also needs to be revealed in order to examine the various impacts of filling and operational scenarios. Also, the outcome of said technical studies needs to be relied on when agreeing on the filling and operational bases.”

“Questions have been raised about the Renaissance Dam operational levels, on which evaporation, losses and leakage volumes depend,” Abu-Zeid said. “Filling the Renaissance Dam leads to a large amount of evaporation and leakage, whose cumulative effect would reduce water storage in Lake Nasser in Egypt. This would affect the safe storage level in Lake Nasser, which Egypt relies on to meet its needs in times of drought and low flood rates.”

Cairo is pushing for a joint agreement with Ethiopia on filling the GERD reservoir and operating it in a way that does not affect its Nile waters interests. Ethiopia, however, by informing Egypt of its reservoir-filling plan, seems to be one step ahead and has been steadily arguing a lack of impediments to launching the filling operation.

“Construction at the GERD site and the filling of the reservoir form an integrated process and will not stop,” said Ethiopian Water and Energy Minister Seleshi Bekele at a press conference Feb. 21.

Found in:WATER SUPPLY AND DISPUTES

Ayah Aman is an Egyptian journalist for Al-Shorouk specializing in Africa and the Nile Basin, Turkey and Iran and Egyptian social issues. On Twitter: @ayahaman

 

 

 

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Soladarity message to One Amhara Organization

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Qafar Ummattah Party                                                 Afar People’s Party

March 21, 2018

Dear One Amhara Organization,

Afar People’s Party appreciate your invitation to participate in launching ceremony of your organization. Regrettably enough, we couldn’t make it to be in place to applaud your success.

The great People of Amhara have being playing a significant role in defending Ethiopia’s sovereignty and preserving our common assets as nation. However, during the Woyane era this great nation became a target for repeated annihilation, humiliation and displacement. Given these facts, the Afar people deeply understand and share your agony, marginalisation and your need to organize yourself to play an active role in rebuilding a new democratic Ethiopia. Our new Ethiopia is where all Ethiopians can live together in equality, mutual respect, harmony and national pride.

The repressive regime of Woyane is trembling and its legacy is fading away rapidly. Nevertheless, our challenges ahead are how we can build an inclusive and democratic Ethiopia together. It is our hope that One Amhara organisation will play a key role in connecting the dots. The people of Afar as always stands by you and will stand with you!

Afar People’s Party would like to congratulate you and wish you successful formation of One Amhara organisation!

Fraternal greetings, Dr. Kontie Moussa

Chairman, Afar People’s Party

 

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Washington Update – From Friends of Congressman Chris Smith (Mesfin Mekonen)

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Representative Christopher Smith (R-NJ) has done more for Ethiopia, and taken a greater interest in Ethiopian human rights and democracy, than any American politician. He has traveled to Ethiopia several times to confront dictators, sponsored legislation that committed the United States to support democracy and civil society in Ethiopia, and held numerous hearings and press conferences about Ethiopia. In 2014 Rep. Smith helped get language included in the federal budget that prohibited the U.S. government from providing foreign aid to Ethiopia that supported the violation of human rights.
Some highlights of Rep. Smith’s engagement with Ethiopia follow.
In 2005 Smith, who was Chairman of the House Subcommittee on Africa, Global Human Rights and International Operations, called on Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi to call off security forces, who had killed scores of peaceful protesters, wounded at least 100 others and jailed more than 400 Ethiopians protesting the results of the recent elections. “President Bush must take all necessary steps to persuade the Ethiopian government to immediately halt the state-sponsored violence in Ethiopia, which it has declared to be a strategic country for America’s Africa policy,” Chairman Smith said.
In August 2005, Smith traveled to Ethiopia and demanded a halt to the killing and imprisonment of innocent. Ethiopians. “When I visited Ethiopia on a fact finding trip, then-Prime Minister Meles Zenawi was nonchalant about the shootings of peaceful demonstrators, arrests of innocents,” Smith said. “The head of the main opposition party was refused medicine, threatening his life,” said Smith. “I have remained in contact with the Ethiopian government in an effort to convince them to moderate their behavior toward their citizens,” Smith continued. “Unfortunately this moderation has not taken place—if anything, the actions of the government of Ethiopia have intensified in its effort to shut down political opposition and critics in civil society.”
“Ethiopia is an American ally, and its stability is in our national interest,” said Chairman Smith. “The war with Eritrea was ended in part on the promise to resolve the border dispute, and failure to respect the decision of the boundary commission could lead to renewed fighting. I also plan to discuss electoral issues – particularly growing frustration from voting rights violations that have the potential to cause wider social problems beyond the protests we’ve seen thus far.”
October 3, 2007 The U.S. House of Representatives passed H.R. 2003 (Ethiopia Democracy and Accountability Act of 2007) on a unanimous vote. Congressmen Chris Smith and Donald Payne delivered an impassioned speech on the floor of the House urging members pass the bill. they outlined the long train of human rights abuses that have taken place in Ethiopia over the many years. They said the people of Ethiopia deserve democracy and human rights and a government of their choice.
In February 2017, Smith held a press conference to introduce human rights legislation. He was joined by victims of torture at the hands of the Ethiopian government, and denounced the actions of the oppressive government of President Mulatu Teshome. “For too long the government of Ethiopia has used violence, including the shooting of peaceful protestors, to snuff out any opposition,” said Smith, Chairman of the House Panel on Africa. “Simple conversations with the Ethiopian Government have proven to not be enough—the actions of the government have intensified rather than moderated.”
To keep the legislation moving forward, Ethiopian Americans should
contact members of Congress who co-sponsored H.R. 128, as well as other
members of Congress. It is important to stress that this is a bipartisan
effort. When you speak with members of Congress emphasize that the
situation in Ethiopia is desperate, that political prisoners are being
held under terrible conditions, and this is an opportunity for the
United States to stand up for the values that American believe in.
Legislation Smith has introduced over the years includes:
In 2005 Smith introduced the Ethiopia Consolidation Act of 2005. It directed the President: (1) through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), to revise the USAID country plan for Ethiopia to provide support for independent human rights monitoring and related training for government officials, and to provide support for training political parties on organization building, message development, and election monitoring; (2) through the International Criminal Investigative Training Assistance Program of the Department of Justice, to provide training for Ethiopian police, security, and prison personnel in maintaining international standards for arrest and interrogation; (3) through USAID, to support programs to increase the independence and competence of the Ethiopian judicial system, and to provide assistance for development of Ethiopia’s Nile and Awash River resources, including assistance to help Ethiopia with technology for the construction of dams, irrigation systems, and hydroelectric power that might prevent future famine; (4) provide financing for U.S.-Ethiopian commercial ventures; and (5) suspend joint security activities until a certification is made that Ethiopia is observing international human rights standards and enforcing the principle of the rule of law.
In 2006, Smith introduced the Ethiopia Freedom, Democracy, and Human Rights Advancement Act of 2006. The bill stated that is U.S. policy to: (1) support human rights, democracy, independence of the judiciary, freedom of the press, peacekeeping capacity building, and economic development in the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia; (2) collaborate with Ethiopia in the Global War on Terror; (3) seek the release of all political prisoners and prisoners of conscience in Ethiopia; (4) foster stability, democracy, and economic development in the region; and (5) strengthen U.S.-Ethiopian relations. It directed the Secretary of State to take specified actions to support human rights and democratization in Ethiopia. It directed the President to provide assistance for the rehabilitation of Ethiopian torture victims, and to to provide Ethiopia with economic policy assistance; financing for U.S.-Ethiopian commercial ventures; and resource policy assistance.
In 2007, Smith introduced the Ethiopia Freedom, Democracy, and Human Rights Advancement Act of 2007, which was similar to the bill he had introduced in 2006.
In 2007 Smith also introduced the Global Online Freedom Act of 2007 which promoted Internet freedom and had specific provisions related to Ethiopia.
In February 2017, Smith introduced H.Res. 128: Supporting respect for human rights and encouraging inclusive governance in Ethiopia. The resolution condemns: (1) the killing of peaceful protesters and excessive use of force by Ethiopian security forces; (2) the detention of journalists, students, activists and political leaders who exercise their constitutional rights to freedom of assembly and expression through peaceful protests; and (3) the abuse of the Anti-Terrorism Proclamation to stifle political and civil dissent and journalistic freedoms. Calls on the government of Ethiopia to: lift the state of emergency; end the use of excessive force by security forces; investigate the killings and excessive use of force that took place as a result of protests in the Oromia and Amhara regions; release dissidents, activists, and journalists who have been imprisoned for exercising constitutional rights; respect the right to peaceful assembly and guarantee freedom of the press; engage in open consultations with citizens regarding its development strategy; allow a United Nations rapporteur to conduct an independent examination of the state of human rights in Ethiopia; address the grievances brought forward by representatives of registered opposition parties; hold accountable those responsible for killing, torturing, and detaining innocent civilians who exercised their constitutional rights; and investigate and report on the circumstances surrounding the September 3, 2016, shootings and fire at Qilinto Prison, the deaths of persons in attendance at the annual Irreecha festivities at Lake Hora near Bishoftu on October 2, 2016, and the ongoing killings of civilians over several years in the Somali Regional State by police. Calls on such government to repeal proclamations that can be used to harass or prohibit funding for organizations that investigate human rights violations, engage in peaceful political dissent, or advocate for greater political freedoms; prohibit those displaced from their land from seeking judicial redress; permit the detention of peaceful protesters and political opponents who legally exercise their rights to freedom of expression and association; and limit peaceful nonprofit operations in Ethiopia. Calls on: (1) the Department of State to review security assistance and improve oversight of U.S. assistance to Ethiopia; (2) the U.S. Agency for International Development to lead efforts to develop a strategy to support improved democracy and governance in Ethiopia; and (3) the State Department, in cooperation with the Department of the Treasury, to apply appropriate sanctions on foreign persons or entities responsible for extrajudicial killings, torture, or other gross violations of internationally recognized human rights committed against any nationals in Ethiopia. It also supports the peaceful efforts of the Ethiopian people to exercise their constitutional rights.
Congressman Chris Smith is up for reelection and he needs our help to raise fund for his campaign
Please send your contribution as soon as you can. Make check payable and mail to:
                                 Friends of Chris Smith 
                             PO Box 3184, Hamilton, NJ 08619
 Mesfin Mekonen

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TSEHAI: 20 Years and Counting… Pt 1 and 2

ESAT Latest Ethiopian News March 23, 2018

Upcoming US House of Representatives Vote on H.Res 128 (Ginbot 7)

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አርበኞች ግንቦት7 የአንድነትና ዴሞክራሲ ንቅናቄ
Patriotic Ginbot 7 Movement for Unity and Democracy

March 23, 2018

For Immediate Release

Patriotic Ginbot 7 Movement for Unity and Democracy would like to extend its heartfelt gratitude to Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy for scheduling H.Res 128 for the House vote on April 9, 2018. We would also like to thank Rep. Christopher Smith, Chairman of the House subcommittee on Africa for sponsoring H.Res 128 “Supporting respect for human rights and encouraging inclusive governance in Ethiopia”. Our thanks also go to Ranking Member Karen Bass and ALL the co-sponsors of the resolution.

We would like to specially thank Rep. Mike Coffman (R-CO) for his hard work and tireless effort on behalf of his Ethiopian-American constituency who brought us to this point. Ethiopian-Americans across this great land and Ethiopians at home are truly indebted to Rep. Mike Coffman of Colorado.

We strongly believe that the passage of H.Res 128 will send a strong message to the Ethiopian regime that has declared a draconian State of Emergency (SoE) for the second time in two years. The SoE has put the country under a military control inflaming the political crisis that will most certainly lead Ethiopia and the region into prolonged instability unless the Ethiopian regime is forced to terminate the SoE and seek a political solution for the crisis and the future of the country with all stakeholders.

Ethiopians abroad demand that Human Rights is respected in Ethiopia. House Resolution 128 will also give moral support to the Ethiopian people who are single-mindedly determined to transition Ethiopia from dictatorship to democracy and peace in order to have their full say in how their country is governed. We strongly believe that H.Res 128 will be an affirmation of the strong historical ties between Ethiopia and the United States established over one hundred years ago by President Teddy Roosevelt.

As the most populous regional power in the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia will always remain a strong ally of the United States sharing the common objective of peace, stability and economic development in Ethiopia and in the geopolitically strategic Horn of Africa.

Justice, liberty, and Unity for the people of Ethiopia!

Contact: foreign@patriotg7.org

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‘Fight for democracy in Ethiopia continues’– U.S. Congress to vote on H. Res. 128

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Abdur Rahman Alfa Shaban

The United States Congress will finally vote on a human rights resolution against the Ethiopian government in the second week of April, a Congressman deeply involved in the process has announced.

According to Rep. Mike Coffman who represents Colorado’s Sixth Congressional District, the vote is a sign that “The fight for respect of human rights & inclusive governance in Ethiopia continues.”

In a tweet of March 21, 2018; he said the bi-partisan House Resolution 128 was scheduled to be voted upon in the week of April 9 after months of work by all involved.

Passing H. Res. 128 would send a powerful message to Addis Ababa to get serious about undertaking reforms, and the Ethiopian government’s bullying tactics should not derail it.
Rep. Mike Coffman
✔

I’m happy to announce that after months of hard work (by all involved) is scheduled for a vote the week of April 9. The fight for respect of human rights & inclusive governance in continues…

8:55 AM – Mar 21, 2018
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In October 2017, a pro-democracy group, Freedom House, accused Ethiopia of literally blackmailing the U.S. Congress with a threat to withhold counter-terrorism cooperation if the vote went ahead.

Freedom House quoted Republican Congressman Mike Coffman as confirming that Ethiopia’s position was relayed by its ambassador in Washington who said the country will “stop counter-terrorism cooperation with the United States if Congress went ahead with a planned vote on a resolution calling for human rights protections and inclusive governance in the country (H. Res. 128).”

But the turn of events, with the vote scheduled to go ahead means that the Congress had ‘thrown out’ the threat from Addis Ababa.

Freedom House’s statement dated October 16, 2017 was titled “U.S. Congress Should Call Ethiopia’s Bluff,” with its Senior Program Officer for Africa, Joseph Badwaza, egging Congress to proceed with its efforts and discard the Ethiopian government’s “bullying tactics.”

“Passing H. Res. 128 would send a powerful message to Addis Ababa to get serious about undertaking reforms, and the Ethiopian government’s bullying tactics should not derail it. Members of Congress should call the bluff, place the resolution back on the House agenda, and approve it.

“Experience shows that Ethiopia would never follow through on the threat to halt security cooperation. The government fully understands who would be the ultimate loser if it did,” Freedom House said.

What is the H. Res. 128 about?
H. Res. 128 is a human rights centered move with strong bipartisan support in the U.S. Congress, it has as many as 71 cosponsors.

The resolution passed the House Foreign Affairs Committee unanimously in late July 2017 and was scheduled for a vote by the full House on October 2.

One of its authors, Republican Congressman Chris Smith said during the committee mark-up, the resolution is like a mirror held up to the government of Ethiopia, and it is intended to encourage them to recognize how others see them and move forward with reforms.

“While the resolution contains provisions that call for sanctions — under the Global Magnitsky Act— against Ethiopian officials responsible for committing gross human rights violations, the more important reason why the government took the severe step of threatening the U.S. Congress is the damage that this resolution could do to the country’s image,” Freedom House averred.

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Ethiopian Instability Could Have Huge Security, Humanitarian Impact on Kenya

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Felix Horne
Senior Researcher, Horn of Africa

Over 9,000 Ethiopians, many of them women and children, have fled into Kenya’s Marsabit County over the last ten days, escaping ongoing Ethiopian military attacks. Sadly, more Ethiopians may follow as Ethiopia continues its two-and-a-half-year descent into further instability.

On March 10 Ethiopian soldiers opened fire on a group of community members in Moyale, Ethiopia, killing at least 10 people. The defense minister announced that the killings were a “mistake.” He said that the soldiers had acted on bad intelligence, which had indicated that the civilians were members of the banned Oromo Liberation Front, an armed opposition group, a faction of which is active around the Moyale area.

Ethiopia’s security forces have targeted civilians expressing critical views of the government for harassment, arrest, and in many cases, torture for many years. Countrywide, Ethiopia’s military have killed over 1,000 civilians in response to protests since late 2015.

Kenya should pay close attention to what is happening in Ethiopia right now. In addition to the potential for further insecurity spilling across the border, the humanitarian consequences of increased conflict in Ethiopia could be devastating for both countries. Over eight million Ethiopians are in need of food aid. Many of them live in southern Ethiopia, close to the Kenyan border. If conflict in Ethiopia increases, many of its most vulnerable citizens will be looking for safety. Kinship connections, established trafficking routes, and relatively stable security all make Kenya an attractive destination.

Until late 2015, the Ethiopian government’s ruthless approach to governance – criminalizing speech critical of the government and detaining members of the opposition, the media and civic groups – suppressed growing anger, but these tactics are no longer working. Since the prime minister resigned a month ago, it remains unclear when a new one will be chosen. Ethiopia is under its second country-wide state of emergency in two years, managed by its ruthless military.

If a new prime minister is not given the room to make key political reforms, Ethiopia may well continue to descend further into disorder. Sadly, there aren’t many positive signs that a new prime minister will have such latitude.

Some of Ethiopia’s staunch Western allies, fearful of what a destabilized Ethiopia would mean for their interests, have spoken openly of their concerns and urged a change in tactics. If Ethiopia continues on its current path, neighboring states like Kenya will likely bear the impact of what could be significant migration and humanitarian crises. But, so far, the Kenyan government has been silent.

Ethiopia’s intolerance of dissent has also been exported across the border in the past. For years, Ethiopian intelligence officials, sometimes in cooperation with Kenyan police, have harassed, threatened, and on occasion kidnapped Ethiopian asylum seekers in Nairobi and elsewhere in Kenya.

Ethiopia’s military has often punished civilians in and around Moyale on both sides of the border for alleged support of Oromo Liberation Front fighters. When the group attacked military targets inside of Ethiopia in 2015, Ethiopia’s response was to unilaterally move its soldiers into Kenyan territory on no fewer than five occasions. Kenyan communities near the border told Human Rights Watch at the time that the Ethiopian military harassed and beat citizens, and eventually marched at least four Kenyan citizens to detention in Ethiopia. In the process the Ethiopian military killed three Kenyan police officers. This was all because the military believed these Kenyan communities supported the banned opposition group.

If thousands more Ethiopians move into Kenya fleeing government repression, will Ethiopia’s military continue its pattern of moving into northern Kenya in pursuit of those who oppose them, using the specter of the banned group as a justification?

Kenya can and should take the lead within the East African community in encouraging Ethiopia to embark on key domestic reforms that would prevent further abuses – including allowing political parties to operate freely and media and nongovernmental groups to operate independently. And Kenyan leaders should publicly voice their concern over the increased military aggression that causes Ethiopians to flee into Kenya. Kenya, and East Africa more broadly, need a stable and prosperous Ethiopia. Adding the voice of a trusted ally like Kenya to the many tens of millions of Ethiopians demanding change will be an important contribution toward stability in the region.

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