Ethiopian Forum for Constructive Engagement

“Mathematics may not teach us how to add happiness or how to minus sadness. But it does teach one important thing. Every Problem has a solution”

(Anonymous) 

“Ethiopia has a unique distinction in the universe for empowering those that were disempowered, for humanising those that were dehumanised, spiritualising those that were denied their right to worship God and inspiring and strengthening those oppressed to resist oppression”. Mammo Muchie

This is a humble and sincere call for all Ethiopians who are politically engaged to reach a consensus to make sure Ethiopia’s long and complicated political journey finally enters into a culture of dialogue where no matter how divisive and controversial the differences are, ways are found to address them with moral integrity, long term vision and for the benefit and dignity of all its citizens to be free at last and finally from any use of violence.

At the moment Ethiopia is experiencing contradictory political developments. The first development is the welcome action by the current Government and the ruling party to release all prisoners that were arrested before and after the first state of emergency. It was an encouraging news to hear the leaders from the ruling party acknowledging their own party’s mistakes and their readiness to correct mistakes of the past in order to move forward Ethiopia’s democratization processes. The second political development is that after the Prime Minister submitted a letter of resignation, the Government issued, surprisingly to many observers, a state of emergency for the second time. The contradictory nature of these political developments are self-evident and will not require any additional exposition. A second state of emergency will undoubtedly lead, among other things, to more arrests including the very individuals that have been just released.

The transition cannot be from one state of emergency to another state of emergency. The hoped and expected transition was to move away from militarism and a police state to a full-fledged civil governance system that will be believed and accepted as legitimate by all the citizens regardless of political and other differences. The key concept here is to create enduring legitimacy that requires the efforts of the government by doing actions that all can recognise and appreciate without viewing the good part of the recent actions taken by the Government and the ruling party as self-serving rather than done with honesty and integrity in the interest of the nation, Ethiopia. A real and promising transition is for all concerned Ethiopian parties to come together and address all the governance challenges that Ethiopia went through in its thousands years of history and memory with the view of shaping Ethiopia’s future by creating a governance system where all Ethiopians, however diverse they are, can agree that both the Government and governance system in place are legitimate. One of the acid tests for this legitimacy is that the nature of the governance system for the short term and the governmental structures and institutionalizations of the long term are a result of honest and consensus based negotiated outcomes rather than arm-twisting and divide and conquer ones. In short, whatever system might emerge from the negotiated national consensus, there can still be some disagreements, as disagreement even among well intentioned individuals is inevitable, and yet it is one of the many tasks of the consensus dialogue to bridge such differences.

We would like to propose to all concerned Ethiopians, both inside and outside of Ethiopia, Ethiopian citizens, friends and individuals of Ethiopian origin, to join together for a meeting to promote national consensus by agreeing to hold the Consensus Building Forum to help bridge the diverse and competing perspectives and interests that need to unlearn remaining and being in conflict and to re-learn by entering into a culture of dialogue for the sake of preserving Ethiopia to live on and on in the eternal river of time. The specific goal of the meeting is to help frame and build a National Legitimate CONSENSUS among the competing and conflicting parties of Ethiopia regarding governance in the short term, and government in the long term. The hope is that the consensus building process will produce a transformational and innovative road map that helps frame a governance system that is stable, peaceful, predictable, transparent, resilient, and sustainable entirely dedicated to deliver public service for the wellbeing of the Ethiopian people, the rest of Africa and the world. It is time that there is a transition to be delivered where the people live with optimism and confidence making Ethiopia once for all radiate moral energy, knowledge and values that will make all the people live together with unity and full Ethiopiawinet identity by removing ethnic division.
The modalities for working out the long term policy strategies should engage the following:

-The current nature and shape of government formation should be transparent from the negotiation efforts that is going on between the ruling party and all the alternative parties and oppositions in Ethiopia.

-All the opposition should be included with new approaches and strategies to bring the conflicting parties to enter into peaceful and sustainable dialogue culture to avoid ever again resorting to violence and military punitive clashes. Ethiopia should enter into the everlasting era of justice by making a paradigm shift from war, conflict and violence, to peace, reconciliation and dialogue always and ever from now on. There should be an agreement on this principle and value to change the dirty politics that kills to the clean politics that saves human life in Ethiopia always no matter what complications the social-economic journey creates.

-There should be facilitators to encourage conflict resolution to realise a proper and legitimate transition without taking a long time in doing the work to get all the stake holders to enter into true and real dialogue processes.

-There should be mediators from within Ethiopia and friends of Ethiopia and those that can contribute are encouraged to volunteer to propose their willingness to participate. The objective is for the mediators to have direct access and deliberations with all those who are currently very active in politics to make sure Ethiopia’s much urgent peaceful transition quest is realised.

-The Government must go for transition that empowers, enables and capacitates Ethiopia and all its people, and not a transition from the state of emergency to another state of emergency

– As peace making under the shadow of unwelcoming and threatening conditions would be considered compulsion by other name, we urge    the government to rescind the STATE OF EMERGNECY WITHOUT CONSIDERING IT AS A PRECONDITION FOR THE CONSENSUS BULIDING CONFERENCE TO BE HELD.
Finally, all participants in this National Consensus Building Forum must have a commitment to help advance the interests of all parties for mutual gains and win-win outcomes for all regardless of any political differences.
Given that the conflict our country is facing has the potential for being protracted as well as intractable, we would like to impress upon all-from facilitators, mediators and the varied politicians from all sides the sense of urgency for this CONSENSUS BUILDING MEETING to take place the soonest as the old adage admonishes an ounce of prevention is better than a pound of cure.

Sincerely, humbly and respectfully submitted by:

Mammo Muchie: DPhil and SARChI DST/NRF Rated Research Professor, Tshwane University of Technology, Pretoria, South Africa, UoG and BDU, Ethiopia, Associate Faculty Professor, Sussex University, UK and TMDC, Oxford University, UK. Contact: mammo.muchie@gmail.com & www.sarchi-steid.org.za/ www.nesglobal.org   www.africantalenthub.org  & http://twitter.com/au_youth

and

Prof Berhanu Mengistu, Representing the Ethiopian Forum for Constructive Engagement,

bmengist@odu.edu, bmengist@gmail.com 757-683-5250b &  zasfaw@aol.com, frefrecfr@yahoo.com andbezahawi@gmail.com

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Birhanemeskel Abebe

The expectations of the Ethiopian people and the international community are set to accept and fully support either President Lemma Megersa or Dr. Abiy Ahmed as the next Chairman of the EPRDF and the Prime Minister of Ethiopia to lead the Ethiopian people and the country through transformative regime change.

This means the Ethiopian people and the international community trusts and supports the vetting process and the judgment of #TeamLemma in nominating either one of these two transformative and charismatic change leaders.

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Africa News

Ethiopia’s Oromo People Democratic Organization (OPDO) has elected a new leader in the person of Dr. Abiy Ahmed, the Addis Standard portal reports.

The party’s 81-member Central Committee voted for the new changes on Thursday. The move is seen as a bid to position Ahmed as the next Prime Minister of the country.

He takes the post of OPDO Chairperson and replaces Lemma Megerssa the immediate past occupant of the role. Megerssa drops to the post of deputy OPDO chair but maintains his post as president of the Oromia region.

Dr. Abiy Ahmed’s appointment as chairman of the OPDO came after the party’s 15 member executive committee, led by Lemma Megeressa, reached at a consensus on Monday this week to replace him as the chairman, the Addis Standard added.

The post of Prime Minister became vacant after the resignation a week ago of PM Hailemariam Desalegn. The ruling Ethiopia Peoples Democratic Front (EPRDF) is expected to go to congress to elect Desalegn’s successor. He is continuing in the role till congress decides.

The four parties under the EPRDF include the OPDO, the Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM), the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM).

Desalegn belonged to the SEPDM whiles the late PM Meles Zenawi belonged to the TPLF. The coalition holds 100% seats of the parliament. The country is due to return to the polls in 2020.

Photo credit: OPDO-official (Facebook)

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State television says government has shed more light on six-month state of emergency order issued last Friday.

Ethiopia has released new details about the six-month state of emergency ordered last week amid mass anti-government protests, according to state media reports.

Siraj Fegessa, minister of defence and head of the command post charged with implementing the state of emergency order, announced the details on Wednesday, state broadcasters FANA Television and EBC said.

Fegessa unveiled the order last Friday, a day after Hailemariam Desalegn abruptly resigned as prime minister and head of the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition.

“The government has previously made several efforts to curtail violence, but lives have continued to be lost, many have been displaced and economic infrastructure has been damaged,” Fegessa said, as quoted by Reuters news agency.

But at the time, few details were released about how the state of emergency – the second in Ethiopia since 2016 – would function.

The order comes amid widespread anti-government protests calling for more political inclusion, the release of political prisoners and an end to human rights abuses.

According to FANA TV, the state of emergency prohibits:

• Violating Ethiopia’s constitution or “constitutional order”
• Supporting or having links to “terrorist” organisations
• Holding unauthorised demonstrations and meetings
• Promoting a political agenda
• Issuing statements on security issues without Command Post permission
• Obstructing public transportation services
• Attacking infrastructure or development institutions
• Blocking the work of law enforcement officials
• Having firearms in a public area
• Hampering the functioning of schools
• Striking at sports fields
• Impeding cultural, public and religious festivals

It also includes prohibitions on poorly defined activities, such as any action that may “erode tolerance and unity”, or “affect the peace and wellbeing” of people in Ethiopia.

The order bars anyone from carrying weapons in “unauthorised regions”, but those regions are not specified, FANA reported.

Earlier, the broadcaster said the state of emergency would also give law enforcement officers the power to detain anyone suspected of violating “the constitutional order”.

They would also have the ability to search houses, cars and individuals, all without a court warrant.

The government is expected to deliver the state of emergency decree to parliament for ratification within 15 days from last Friday.

INSIDE STORY

What triggered unrest in Ethiopia?

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A concerned Ethiopian

 Amidst the news of the resignation of Prime Minister Hailemariam, the declaration of state of emergency, and the percolating conversation that preoccupied Ethiopians on who should be the next prime minister, I am concerned if we are losing sight of Ethiopian people’s demand for change. Some of the conversations taking place on social media, discussion forums and opinions expressed on various web portals are the sources for this concern.

The concern I am about to express may not be shared by all. However, I would like to offer a few examples in the hope that those who are less concerned would be convinced. The premise for my concern is how well do we understand TPLF and its manoeuvers to keep change-demanding voices fractured? How well do we understand TPLF’s propaganda scheme that attempts, and in some cases succeeds, in keeping its critics divided?

TPLF has invested incalculable resources to make sure that the day will never come for those critical voices to come together and see TPLF, in unison, as the primary and only problem in Ethiopia.  It will be shocking for some, when I say that TPLF, in the last twenty-six years, had chances to dictate what its critics, inside and outside the country, think are important issues. TPLF has managed to implant some of the talking points oppositions and activists think that it is theirs. TPLF has often controlled the general narrative of critical voices, and provide the exact linguistic tools to keep them fractured. As outrageous as my claims sound, here are a few examples.

Take for example the recent commotion between some Amhara and Oromo discussants and the conversations taking place on their respective social media and political forums. What is circulating on social media is news about Oromo youth (kerro) going around various towns in the Oromo region, defacing billboards and signposts with Amharic writings. Some Ethiopians believe this contradicts what was said before in the spirit of cooperation between the people from these two regions. Some have gone to the extent of interpreting this as an act against Amharas.

The act is surely designed to give the impression that Amharic and, by implication, Amharas are not welcome in Oromia. But let us consider the following in context with what is transpiring in the country. As we speak, there are at least half a million Oromos displaced in their own country. Most of the Ethiopian political leaders and activists from the Oromo region, who just left TPLF’s prison cells, are reiterating, daily, that all Ethiopians, and especially Ethiopians from different parts of the country who are residing in Oromia, should be protected. The Oromo people know that TPLF has murdered and imprisoned thousands of its people. The Oromo people know that the struggle they are waging is against TPLF, and they have confirmed this numerous time. We have heard the voices of Amhara and Oromo youth in unison demanding regime change, directed particularly at TPLF. This is the current situation in the country.

Yet, the conversations and discussions on social media entice distrust and doubt between Ethiopians. The question we should ask, at this very moment, regarding this fiasco campaign of defacing signs with Amharic writings, is who benefits from creating suspicion and mistrust among Ethiopians.

Based on the intended message of the act, even if we entertain the idea that there is a “conspiracy by Oromo youth to rid of Amharas from Oromia,” it is very difficult to make sense out of it. At a time when TPLF is standing on one jittery leg, couldn’t the Oromo youth find one bright mind to say, “the conspiracy can wait till we get rid of this regime”? While TPLF is still murdering Ethiopians in the Oromo region, is it difficult to understand a simple logic that the real youth (Kerro) do not have time to search for signs with Amharic writings, let alone to deface them?

Defacing signs with Amharic writings is surely the brainchild of TPLF. And surely it has captured the attention of many. TPLF’s design will be complete if it results in division and suspicion among Ethiopians. Perhaps we have to learn to calmly study news that come from the frontline, so to speak, before joining TPLF-engineered conversations designed to promote suspicion, mistrust, doubt, and division among Ethiopians.

Here is another example. The “who should be the next prime minister?” is one of the recent talking points conceived by TPLF. And there was no shortage of participants in the conversation, to the delight of TPLF. TPLF succeeded in implanting a collective amnesia on all participants that it is, and only TPLF is, the chief architecture of power in Ethiopia. The predictions who will be the next prime minister and the expressions of preference for this or that political figure as a candidate for the next leadership is designed to castrate the movement waged by Ethiopians that demands for total political changes. It helps TPLF conceal the fact that EPRDF, as the only begotten child of TPLF, is a nursling that is forbidden from developing into adulthood. It covers the fact that EPDRF is an organization that depends on suckling TPLF’s breast for its existence.  What TPLF succeeded through these discussions is planting the nothing-burger narrative that political change will come if a suckling of TPLF gets donned with the Prime-Ministerial Robe. Investing time and effort to study, analyse and discuss the possibility that a leader from the Amhara region, the Oromo region, or any region under EPDRF; or pointing at this or that official in the EPDRF rank and file, as a potential candidate for the Prime Minister-ship, is forgetting that they are all children of TPLF. No change will come through EPDRF!

TPLF’s charades of manipulating public opinion by leaking “confidential information” to media sources that a leader is elected in ‘secret meetings’ is also designed to arrest the movement of change that is currently swarming the country. Why the charades? Because TPLF hopes that Ethiopians take these ‘leaked news’ seriously and lose sight of the core problem — TPLF. Most importantly, however, TPLF hopes Ethiopians will forget, even if it is for a short while, the fact that TPLF has done whatever it wants, for the last twenty-six years, with impunity. The leaks are nothing more than tools of gaging public opinion, conditioning the public, and fuming the discussion that has already made all of us forget the relationship between EPDRF and TPLF, that they are one and the same.

Let me explore one more example. Recently, there were discussions on the topic: “is there a superiority of Tigrayans in Ethiopia?” The heated discussions on the topic had taken both TPLF media outlets and the opposition camps inside the country and among Ethiopians in the diaspora. While the resounding yes to the question causes distress to the naïve Tigrayans whose sources of information are only TPLF outlets, the resounding no from the TPLF/EPDRF mouthpieces had caused pandemonium among all Ethiopians, and legitimately so.

What really happened, in this indirectly TPLF controlled debate, is the circumvention of the more accurate question “is there a superiority of TPLF in Ethiopia?” If we were to ask this question, it would expose that EPDRF and its foot soldiers are domestics in TPLF’s Household. It would uncover the false, TPLF’s most prized, narratives, that TPLF means all Tigrayans under the sun and TPLF is just another party to the coalition EPDRF.

In addition, the denial of the domination enrages those who suffer under the tyranny of TPLF (those who are being murdered, incarcerated, displaced) because answering no to the obvious question “is there a superiority of Tigrayans in Ethiopia?” is an insult to injury. But what is unsaid, hidden, in the question itself is the evasion of the real question “is there a superiority of TPLF in Ethiopia?” T

The former question is formulated in such a way that it implies, the people of Tigray in general, as the culprits. It is not concealed from Ethiopians that TPLF is the one that pulls the wires in the country; but these types of narratives give TPLF air to stay afloat because TPLF can point to the people of Tigray and Ethiopians and say, “look, this is a targeted attack against a specific ethnic,” with yet another hidden message that equates TPLF with every Tigrayan on Earth. It enables TPLF to hide behind the people of Tigray, all the while, continuing what it does best, more killing, more incarceration, more oppression of Ethiopians, and of course, with the help of their cronies who happened to be mostly from Tigray.

In addition, listening to TPLF mouthpieces saying ‘no, there is no Tigrayan domination’ blackmails those who are suffering under TPLF to react in desperate ways. To make sure their voices are heard, those who are on the receiving end of TPLF’s atrocities are pushed to the brinks of hopelessness. This TPLF-invented talking point and the insulting denial, pushes them to resort to extreme expressions of resistance. In their struggle to free themselves from TPLF’s tyranny, the desperate reactions from those Ethiopians in the Amhara, Oromo, Southern Nations, Afar and Somali regions are what TPLF is after. Because those reactions, in turn, will create another opportunity for TPLF to control and set the next round of talking points.

The next round of talking points come in the form TPLF-made slogans: violent demonstrations, distraction of properties, ethnic based violence, Tigrayan business being targeted because of who they are, and so on. These slogans were used as the preamble for the declaration of the state of emergency. Diplomats, residing in the country, are also forced to repeat them even during their most pungent admonitions of TPLF and its state of emergency regime. At face value, these phrases obviously depict undesirable acts and therefore easy to gather sympathetic ears in condemning violence.

TPLF, through these slogans, may also be successful in suppressing the history of Ethiopians that ranks them among the very few societies in the world with unparalleled tolerance to ethnic and religious differences. TPLF is hoping (using these slogans) to shame Ethiopians, hoping that it will be too difficult for Ethiopians suffering under its tyranny to justify their actions after blackmailing them into resorting to these forms of resistance. These slogans are introduced by TPLF to achieve only one goal; they are designed to provide oxygen to TPLF, especially at a time when TPLF’s oxygen tank is dwindling.

For those of you who paid close attention in the initial announcemnt of the state of emergency, the language used has all the hints. “to protect the rights of Ethiopians who wishes to undertake any business endeavour in any part of the country and to protect their rights to prosper by doing so” were the words used as the premise for the declaration. Apparently, this is far from the present demands of the Ethiopian people. But TPLF has to protect its own, and therefore, a state of emergency to satisfy its base.

These are few indicators that might convince those who may not share my concern. I hope this writing will contribute for further conversations on how TPLF keeps critical voice hashed, oppositions fractured, and the outside world confused, as part of the many strategies TPLF deploys to remain in power. Whenever two Ethiopian opposition groups are locked in argument, whether “Lema Megersa of Gedu Andargatchew” is the better candidate as the next Prime minster, both are participating in TPLF-designed fruitless debate. When these opposition political groups stop, even for a moment, informing the Ethiopian people, their constituencies, that TPLF, and by extension EPDRF, is the main culprit that is working hard to push Ethiopians and Ethiopia over the cliff, TPLF gets a chance to gasp for air.

Unless there is awareness among all Ethiopians (political, religious and civic organizations) in considering TPLF as the singular obstacle for all problems Ethiopian; unless there is a common understanding that all efforts should be directed towards freeing Ethiopia from TPLF grips; unless there is an understanding that any reconciliation effort among Ethiopian political and civic organizations requires the examination and understanding of TPLF’s modus operandi; unless there is an understanding that EPDRF is another name for TPLF; and unless we free ourselves from TPLF catered talking points and its subliminal messages, it would be really challenging to achieve a cohesive movement that will shorten the life of TPLF.

I admit, there are ways of taking advantages of a fractured EPDRF to hasten the fall of TPLF. But only in the event real fracture materializes and the benefits of exploiting such splinters become clear to Ethiopians. Until that time, all Ethiopians must remain focused on the main perpetrator, TPLF and its appendage EPDRF. I might add, those days, where the cracks within EPDRF open wide, may be coming faster that we expect. Yet, we have to wait for those days patiently.

A concerned Ethiopian

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Another Abadula so-called “Foreign Minister” of Ethiopia

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Will the appointment of a new Ethiopian prime minister only act to save the ruling party, or usher in deeper reform?

by Jillian Kestler-D’Amours

Hailemariam Desalegn’s snap resignation as Ethiopia’s prime minister last week set off a dramatic chain of events in a country that has seen mass, anti-government protests for several years.

A state of emergency order soon followed the announcement, plunging Ethiopia even further into a state of political uncertainty.

As it prepares to replace Hailemariam as the head of the party, the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) has been buying time to figure out its next move,

In a country where the chairman of the ruling coalition has historically also taken on prime minister duties, questions continue to swirl around who could step in for Hailemariam.

But any successor will have a difficult task ahead, and appointing a new prime minister will likely not be enough to satisfy Ethiopians’ demands for greater political reforms.

“A change of guard is not what the people want,” said Tsedale Lemma, editor-in-chief of the Addis Standard newspaper.

Instead, Ethiopians are demanding “a fundamental change” in the way the country is governed that would allow all interests to be heard and represented, she explained.

“As a country, this is not going to make so much of a difference. EPRDF is EPRDF,” she said.

“The people of Ethiopia are not requiring a change of guard, they are requiring an overall change of the government – a dynamic change, a fundamental change, [to] the way the EPRDF is considered so far.”

Oromo candidates

The decision over who will succeed Hailemariam is “vitally important”, said Hassen Hussein, a writer and Ethiopia analyst based in the United States.

He said it “could either [present] a narrow path away from the precipice, or lead [Ethiopia] right into it”.

Hailemariam, who came to power after the death of his predecessor, Meles Zenawi in 2012, said he will stay on as a caretaker prime minister until a replacement is named.

But since “the engine of the protest movement” has been the marginalisation of the country’s largest ethno-national group, the Oromo, Hussein said that not appointing an Oromo would have a devastating effect.

“If somebody from another [ethnic] group is installed, I think people will interpret that as, ‘Well, there you go again.’ It will be deja vu,” he told Al Jazeera.

Mass anti-government protests have been ongoing in Ethiopia’s Oromia region, home to the Oromo, since 2015.

The Oromo, who make up more than 34 percent of the population, have long complained about political and economic exclusion. One of the protesters’ central demands has been for greater political representation at the national level.

The EPRDF is composed of four political parties, mainly divided along ethnic lines: the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), the Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM), the Oromo Peoples’ Democratic Organisation (OPDO) and the Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM).

READ MORE

Ethiopia: Mass protests ‘rooted in country’s history’

The most prominent Oromo names being discussed to become prime minister are Lemma Megersa, president of the Oromia regional government, and his vice president, Abiy Ahmed, a leading figure in the OPDO.

On Thursday, the 81-member OPDO central committee named Ahmed as the new chairman of the party, taking over from Megersa, who will now serve as deputy chairman, the Addis Standard newspaper reported.

The move has been interpreted to mean that Ahmed will be the party’s candidate for prime minister.

Terrence Lyons, an associate professor at the School of Conflict Analysis and Resolution at George Mason University in the US, said if someone like Deputy Prime Minister Demeke Mekonnen, who is Amhara, is chosen instead, that could “add further fuel to the fire of the Oromo protests”.

A divided coalition

Lyons told Al Jazeera the appointment of the next prime minister is most important, however, for what it will say about what is happening inside the ruling party, which controls all 547 seats in Ethiopia’s parliament and has been in power since 1991.

That year, the EPRDF – originally formed as a collection of rebel groups fighting in a decades-long civil war – overthrew a government headed by Mengistu Haile Mariam.

Meles, the former EPRDF chairman and prime minister, was in charge during a transitional period in the early 1990s, before being formally elected in 1995 as prime minister.

Hailemariam was “a useful placeholder” for the EPRDF after Meles’s death, Lyons said.

WATCH: Ethiopia’s state of emergency to last six months

He said the political system the EPRDF brought into force was “very centralised, very hierarchical [and] decisions were made at the top and communicated down to the grassroots”.

But paradoxically, the coalition also granted local decision-making power and autonomy to newly formed regional governments, which were once again largely divided along ethnic lines.

“The regional states controlled courts and universities and radio stations and bureaus of agriculture and water and so forth, and so the political life began to become decentralised,” Lyons explained.

“This kind of contradiction between centralising and decentralising [power] was always there, it was always going to be a problem, and now we’re seeing it.”

The process

Many of the protesters have also complained in recent years about what they see as the disproportionate power wielded by the Tigrayan party within the coalition.

The TPLF has dominated the ruling coalition from the outset – Meles previously headed both the TPLF and the EPRDF – despite the fact that Tigrayan people constitute only six percent of Ethiopia’s more than 100 million citizens.

Both prime ministers since the party took power in 1991, Hailemariam and Meles, also chaired the coalition.

“Whoever is chairing the EPRDF has traditionally been the prime minister,” Lemma said.

“This makes reforming the [political system] nearly impossible because party and government are one and the same and this is really what the Ethiopian people are fed up with, this blurred line.”

The 180-member EPRDF council is expected to meet within the next week to choose a new leader, Hussein said, and that leader would then either be confirmed by parliament as Ethiopia’s next prime minister, or have to propose someone else.

WATCH

24:40

What triggered unrest in Ethiopia?

The EPRDF council is also expected to meet by early March to decide whether to formally accept Hailemariam’s resignation, Getachew Reda, a member of the body’s executive committee, recently told Bloomberg.

Any candidate for prime minister must be a member of Ethiopia’s parliament.

However, Getachew told Bloomberg that a candidate not currently sitting in parliament, like Oromo leader Megersa, could possibly be brought in after winning a special by-election.

Hailemariam 2.0

Making the new chair of the Oromo party, Ahmed, the next prime minister “would be historic”, said Mohammed Ademo, founder and editor of OPride.com, an independent news website on Ethiopia.

“They could make history here by electing an Oromo for the first time and electing someone with a Muslim background,” Ademo told Al Jazeera.

It would also showcase Ethiopia’s religious diversity, insomuch as the country has historically been known as a “Christian island in a sea of Muslims”, Ademo said.

The Oromo protests were preceded by widespread protests among Muslim Ethiopians – who make up about 30 percent of the population – in 2011 and 2012. They were angered by alleged state interference in their religious affairs. Several prominent Muslim leaders were arrested at the time.

“I’m hopeful that the ruling coalition will make the right choice. I’m hopeful that they will see to it that the people … have a voice,” Ademo said.

For her part, the Addis Standard’s Lemma questioned how any new leader would be able to implement genuine reforms when Ethiopia remains strongly dominated by the security apparatus and business interests.

“How is [somebody] going to be an independent prime minister? He is going to be Hailemariam 2.0,” Lemma said.

She added that the government should allow opposition parties to participate in a snap election to establish a transitional government ahead of a scheduled vote in 2020, or launch an inclusive, national dialogue.

Both measures would show that “the government is willing [to see] a genuine change”, she said.

Opposition parties have been kept out of the Ethiopian parliament for decades and the government has used anti-terrorism legislation to arrest and detain several prominent opposition leaders.

“It would give a [sense of] relief to the Ethiopian people, knowing that the people that they want to represent them, are representing them in the government. That kind of transitional government would save this party from collapse and hence the government at the same time,” Lemma said.

But if the government only changes the person at the top, “it will be a matter of when – and not if – the Ethiopian people revolt again”.

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA NEWS

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Family and rights group demand release of a Canadian citizen imprisoned in Ethiopia for alleged ‘terrorist crimes’.

by David Child

A Canadian family is calling on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to negotiate the release of a citizen imprisoned in Ethiopia saying “there will never be a better time than now to get him home”.

Canadian Bashir Makhtal, 49, has been imprisoned in Ethiopia since January 2007 on charges of “terrorism”.

Authorities in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital, accuse Makhtal of being a ringleader for the Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) – a rebel group pressing for self-rule in Ethiopia’s eastern Ogaden region – and he was sentenced to life in prison.

Ethiopia classifies the ONLF as a “terrorist” organisation.

The United States, United Kingdom, Canada, and the European Union, however, do not.

Makhtal, whose grandfather was a founding member of the ONLF, has always declared himself innocent, saying he was in the region to promote his clothing business.

Now, more than a decade on, the Ethiopian government’s recent release of thousands of political prisoners and peace talks with the ONLF have given Makhtal’s family further impetus in campaigning for his release.

‘There is hope’

Asiso Abdi, Makhtal’s wife, told Al Jazeera that Ethiopian authorities could be persuaded to include Bashir among those freed, if Canada applies adequate diplomatic pressure.

“If the government of Justin Trudeau is willing to get Bashir home, there will never be a better time than now,” Abdi said. “When there is a life, there is a hope.”

Canadian officials say they are exploring every possible option to bring Makhtal back to Canada.

Omar Alghabra, parliamentary secretary to Canada’s minister of foreign affairs, met Makhtal during a diplomatic visit to Ethiopia in April 2017.

Negotiating Makhtal’s release is a priority for the Canadian government, he told Al Jazeera.

“Our objective is to see this happen as soon as we can… At every opportunity, the discussion with Ethiopian officials regarding Mr Makhtal happens,” Alghabra said.

“[But] these conversations are not easy… The Ethiopian government see him as someone who has been convicted and is serving a sentence.”

Despite mounting diplomatic pressure, Ethiopian officials continue to deny Makhtal is a political prisoner and block his release from jail.

Metasebia Tadesse, Ethiopia’s ambassador to Qatar, told Al Jazeera recent prisoner releases were specifically intended to “create a broader political space within the country”, and will not affect Makhtal’s status.

“Bashir Makhtal is not an Ethiopian, he is imprisoned due to the terrorist crimes he committed,” Tadesse said. “One cannot mix his case with the current measures taken by the Ethiopian government.”

When questioned, Tadesse refused to provide Al Jazeera with further details regarding the nature of the “terrorist crimes”.

‘An unfair trial’

Rights group Amnesty International said Makhtal has been held unfairly.

“Once charges were laid against Makhtal we pressed for him to be provided with a fair trial and an opportunity to mount an effective defence, such as by having full access to allegations, evidence and witnesses against him,” Alex Neve, secretary-general of Amnesty International in Canada, told Al Jazeera.

“That was not the case, nor was his appeal hearing a fair process,” Neve said.

Lorne Waldman, Makhtal’s Canada-based lawyer, told Al Jazeera that Ethiopia had subjected his client to a number of extrajudicial measures: including an illegal extradition and torture.

“Bashir’s version of events has been the same since the beginning, that he was in Somalia doing business … [and] when there was the [Ethiopian] military incursion into Somalia he, like thousands of others, fled to the Kenyan border,” Waldman said.

“He was detained at the border and taken into custody in Nairobi, and from Nairobi he was illegally spirited on a private plane to Ethiopia without any formal extradition proceedings,” he added.

“Then he was tortured and charged under the anti-terrorism provisions in Ethiopia, before being prosecuted in what people generally felt was an unfair trial, convicted and sentenced to life in prison.”

Extraordinary rendition

Amnesty said Makhtal’s transfer to Ethiopia was “tantamount to an instance of extraordinary rendition”, adding it was “very likely” he had been subjected to torture or other forms of cruel treatment in Ethiopia.

The prevalence of torture in Ethiopia – described as a “major problem” in Human Rights Watch’s 2018 report – and Makhtal being held incommunicado at the beginning of his detention support Amnesty’s concerns regarding mistreatment, Neve said.

Authorities in Ethiopia did not acknowledge they had imprisoned Makhtal until July 2007, six months after his arrival in Addis Ababa, his relatives told Al Jazeera.

Nearly 11 years later, Makhtal’s family still has little clarity about whether Ethiopia will release him.

Some 12,000km away from his prison cell in Ethiopia, Makhtal’s absence in Canada continues to be felt every day, Abdi told Al Jazeera.

“They took my husband and with him my future happiness,” she said.

“I have already missed 11 wedding anniversaries with him, 11 years of my life have gone. I’m missing a half of me deep inside the dark cell of an Ethiopian prison.”

TALK TO AL JAZEERA

Abdirahman Mahdi of ONLF: ‘Ethiopia is boiling’

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA NEWS

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Poetry and Art: Kebedech Tekleab – Pt 2

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Wendmagegnehu Gashu Interview with Shefeke Adem Mohamed. 22 Feb 2018

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Addis Standard
2018-02-23

No change of top leadership within ANDM as Demeke Mekonnen and Gedu Andargachew remain as chairman and deputy of the party; Getachew Ambaye, minister of Justice, replaced Ambassador Kassa Teklebirhan and joined ANDM’s executive committee 

Addis Standard staffs

Addis Abeba, February 23/2018 – The much anticipated meeting of the Council of Ethiopia’s ruling party, EPRDF, will begin on Thursday March 01/2018 and will take place for three consecutive days until Saturday March 03/2018,  a source with knowledge to the matter told Addis Standard.

EPRDF’s Council has 180 members comprised of 45 members each from the four major parties that make up the EPRDF: the Oromo Peoples’ Democratic Organization (OPDO), the Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM), the Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM), and the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

According to our source, the meeting is expected to discuss three outstanding issues. They are, in order of appearance: evaluating the party’s six months performance report; approving the resignation of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn; and finally electing a new party chairman and a prime minister to replace the outgoing PM.

However, the Council’s meeting will be preceded by a meeting of EPRDF’s powerful bloc of 36, the executive committee, which has nine members each from the four parties that make up the party, between Monday and Wednesday next week.

Although the announcement of election of the new chairman and the prime minister (a position traditionally been held by the same person), is one that’s eagerly awaited at the end of the Council’s meeting, much of what would happen during the Council’s three days meeting will be mapped out during the executive’s meeting between Monday and Wednesday, according to our source said.

The Council’s meeting, including the election of the chairman and the prime minister, will take place soon after the end on Wednesday of the executive’s  meeting.

According to the party’s doctrine, the 180 members of the council will be first asked to nominate their own choices of candidates. Among the nominees, those who will secure 1/3rd of the council’s vote will be qualified as candidates for whom the members of the council will be  casting their votes in a secrete ballot.

Except for the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), all the three parties are expected to field their respective nominates.

During the last several weeks, the executive and the central committees of each parties have been conducting their own meetings in what the parties told their constituencies were meetings aimed at bringing about reforms, including leadership reshuffles. TPLF was the first to have finalized its meetings with major reshuffles both in the leadership and its executives. 

Yesterday, the 81 members of the OPDO Central Committee have announced a reshuffle within the party that saw the position of the party’s chairman move from the Oromia region’s president, Lemma Megerssa, to the his vice president and party secretariat, Dr. Abiy Ahmed. Many consider the move as OPDO’s calculated move to field Dr. Abiy, who is a member of parliament, as potential candidate of the party for the position. Currently Lemma Megerssa is not a member of parliament, which disqualifies him from becoming the country’s prime minister.

This morning, a statement published on the ANDM’s Facebook and Twitter pages said the party’s executive and central committee have completed their weeks long meeting last night. The party said a statement will be issued on the decision of the meeting.

However, another source told Addis Standard that as per the information until last night, the central committee has not changed or reshuffled the current leadership of the party. Currently, Demeke Mekonnen, also the deputy prime minister of the country, is the chairman of ANDM while Gedu Andargachew is the deputy chairman and the president of the Amhara regional state, the state ANDM is government.

The third party, the Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM), the party from which Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn resigned as chairman simultaneously when he resigned from his post as chairman of EPRDF and Prime Minister, is expected to complete its central committee meeting early next week, “most likely by Tuesday”, a member the committee told Addis Standard . However, the party seemed to have been consumed by a rift between those who insist in assigning an SEPDM member to fill the vacant position of the outgoing PM, and those who insist on a fresh start. “One of these two groups is going to win the debate,” our source said. Commenting on the proceeds of the council’s meeting, our source said, “if all goes as planned, we may know who the next prime minister will be as early as Friday or Saturday March o2 or 03.”

Ethiopian politics is going through one of the most unpredictable crisis following a succession of nail biting events since the last one week. On Thursday February 15,  Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn said he was resigning from his role as both Prime Minister and Chairman of Ethiopia’s ruling party EPRDF, as well as his position as chairman of his own party, the Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM). The executive committee of both the EPRDF and SEPDM have quickly accepted the resignation, leaving the final and binding decision to the 180 strong members of EPRDF’s Council.

The news of the Prime Minister’s resignation was followed quickly by a decision on Friday by the council of ministers to impose yet another six months nationwide state of emergency and establish a military command post to oversee the emergency decree. On Wednesday this week, Siraj Fegessa, minister of defense, outlined details of the state of emergency, including restrictions on unauthorized public gatherings and a gag on regional authorities from discussing security issues of their respective regions with media without the permission of the command post, established to oversee the state of emergency’s implementation and is led by Siraj himself. Unlike the 2016 -17 SoE, the fresh decree also restricted citizens from speaking to the media criticizing its provisions and implementations.

AS

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Aklog Birara (Dr.)
Part I of II

“Police state is a term denoting a government that exercises power arbitrarily through the power of the police force.” The term has now morphed and “taken on an emotional and derogatory meaning” by describing an undesirable” state and government that murders citizens with impunity. Wikipedia

From the Imperial period of Emperor Haile Selassie to the present, elites have dominated politics and the commanding heights of the economy at the expense of citizens and the common good. This political and economic capture by elites is more pronounced and exclusionary today than at any time in Ethiopia’s history.

Ethiopia’s seemingly intractable problem is therefore the lack of social, political, economic and spiritual space that would empower ordinary Ethiopian citizens to fulfil their potential. The only way out of this cycle of elite capture for the benefit of elites is a transition towards a democratic state and government.

Elites maintain their political and economic monopoly by asserting the notion that defending and preserving the constitutional order by any means necessary is vital for peace and stability and for sustaining socioeconomic growth and development. Instruments they deploy to maintain the status quo ante include ethnic division, the propagation of fear along ethnic lines, terrorism etc. Behind this narrative is fear of losing political and economic dominance by elites for elites; and the lack of confidence in preserving economic and financial gains made under the system. Resistance to fundamental change emanates from this fear of potential loss.

Sadly, the governing party and the opposition have failed to establish an institutional mechanism to alleviate fear and to promote mutual confidence among all stakeholders.
By segmenting the population into ethnic and religious silos, the global media echoes the narrative of the governing party that ethnic and religious divisions are “irreconcilable.” Little if any attention is given to the notion this narrative is being shattered on the ground by Ethiopia’s youth population that embraces Ethiopia’s mosaic and diversity as a strategic national asset; is bridging relations among people; and is sacrificing in lives and livelihoods to achieve a democratic system.

I am among Al-Jazeera’s genuine admirers. It offers the global community, especially the Arab and African world a different and diverse perspective. A few years ago, Al-Jazeera invited me to an African-Arab forum in Doha, Qatar, where frank and open discussions on cooperation and development took place with the benefit of analytical research from experts. This is a pioneering example of the future and the role of Africans and Arabs in shaping their own future. I commend Al-Jazeera for this type of innovative work; and urge it to bring hold a similar forum for youth and women.

This positive contribution by Al-Jazeera with regard to the current crisis in Ethiopia is, however, marred by a tendency to present an ethnic and religious perspective rather than an Ethiopian one at a cost to Ethiopian territorial integrity, national security, sovereignty and the unity of its 105 million citizens. I shall highlight substantive historical facts that bind Ethiopians together as Ethiopians.

1. Ethiopia is one of the most celebrated ancient countries in the world.

2. Ethiopia is a beacon of independence not only in Africa but also in what used to be known as the Colonial and “Third World.” It pioneered the formation of the Organization of African Unity (OAU), now called the African Union.

3. Ethiopia is home to the three “Abrahamic faiths” of Judaism, Christianity and Islam. These three faiths have a long history in Ethiopia. They are uniquely and genuinely rooted in Ethiopian culture, history and other threads that bind Ethiopians together. Followers of the Prophet Mohammed fled Arabia to Ethiopia because it welcomed them; offered them safety and security. This fundamental principle of peaceful coexistence among Ethiopia’s major faiths and diverse population distinguishes this country from others. It is an endurable legacy that no one can take away from Ethiopians.

4. Ethiopia’s incredibly rich mosaic and tapestry of people, cultures and faiths is a pillar of strength. The potential of this pillar of strength can only be harnessed and strengthened only by a just, fair and representative form or democratic system that persists as a significant and glaring gap in our country’s remarkable history. It is to fill this gap that innocent people, especially youth are dying.

5. Ethiopia’s foreign policy must be anchored on the interests of the mosaic and vital bridges of mutual cooperation with all countries, especially Ethiopia’s neighbors must be established by a future Ethiopian government.

6. For those that are fair and balanced in their assessments of Ethiopia and its remarkable people, there has not been a time in the country’s long history where one ethnic or religious group declared war on another.

7. Ethnic and religious conflict is never tolerated by ordinary Ethiopians. For example, the vast majority of Ethiopians condemned and rejected the TPLF instigated ethnic conflict between Oromo and Somali Ethiopians.

8. The media should appreciate and recognize the notion that there are Amhara Muslims; Oromo Muslims and Christians etc. Intermarriages among ethnic groups and faiths are common and normal. Mutual celebrations of events are normal. Uniting and fighting against external aggression and internal oppression together is normal etc. Ethiopia is a product of its mosaic.

9. Under the current repressive and oppressive “divide and rule system,” Ethiopians proved to themselves and to the global community that they refuse to kill their “brothers and sisters” because they belong to a different ethnic or religious group. This is why the Amhara or the Oromo or others did not bring themselves down to the point of killing Tigreans who live throughout Ethiopia and have gained immense wealth and riches.

10. Had ethnic hate ruled the day, Ethiopia would have been the new Rwanda. By their behaviors and actions, Ethiopians continue to show mutual tolerance and peaceful coexistence that no other society can match.

11. A major Convention in Seattle, Washington held from February 16-19, 2018 showed that 26 political parties and an equal number of civil society organizations from diverse ethnic and religious groups share common denominators that are often overlooked:

• Commitment to the non-negotiability of Ethiopia as a unified and sovereign country;
• Commitment to the urgent task of defending and preserving Ethiopia as a country; and the prevention of civil conflict and genocide at any cost;
• Commitment to the popular rejection of the divide and rule system of the TPLF;
• Commitment to the urgent need for the formation of a transitional government of national unity that will lead and facilitate fair and free elections;
• Commitment to the rule of law and genuine equality of all ethnic and religious groups in Ethiopia;

• Commitment and support to the popular uprising led by Ethiopia’s youth; and to the formation of a government system that enables citizens to become the only sources of political power; and their representatives solely accountable to them;
• Commitment to sustainable healing, peace and reconciliation;
• Commitment to the notion that state and government and other actors who have committed crimes against humanity in Ethiopia must be held accountable;
• Commitment that there won’t be revenge and retaliation against any one; and,
• Commitment to the immediate release of all political prisoners; to the cessation of extrajudicial measures; and to the annulment of the state of emergency.

In light of the above denominators that bind Ethiopians beyond ethnicity and religious affiliation, domestic and global public opinion is against the TPLF. For the first time, the TPLF instigated divide and rule; and its poisonous and infectious use of fear as an instrument of dictatorial rule are broken. There is convergence between the outrage on the part of Ethiopians and expression of disbelief and disdain for the TPLF on the part of foreign governments and the public.

Dismayed by the inability of the TPLF dominated regime to listen to citizens and change in fundamental ways, the American Embassy in Addis Ababa expressed its disagreement with the regime. On February 17, 2018, it issued a statement on Ethiopia’s third state of emergency. This latest state of emergency is intended to quell the democratic wave led by Ethiopia’s youth.

This demographic group constitutes 70 percent of 105 million people, the second largest in Africa and the 13th largest in the world. The economic, social, political and spiritual needs of this enormous social capital is unmet and cannot be met by the current state and government. Ethiopia is still one the poorest countries on the planet. Growth has failed to meet the basic needs of the population. The economy is captured by elites.

These elites are afraid that fundamental change would come at their expense. As Ambassador Herman Cohen opined in a February 2018 commentary on the Ethiopian crisis, these elites “must be assured that they have “a safe future” in a democratic Ethiopia.
This theme of mutual healing was highlighted at the Seattle Political Stakeholders Conference unanimously. Despite this, lack of confidence and mutual trust continue to inflict pain and suffering on Ethiopian society.

Al-Jazeera had done a remarkable job of ground level research concerning the depth of poverty and destitution among the Amhara population. Not only is it the poorest in Ethiopia; it is also the poorest group in the entire Africa.

But, there are also other Ethiopians who are oppressed and marginalized.
At present, no ethnic or religious group is singled out for repression and oppression. All are victims of the TPLF police state that just confirmed and legalized the state of emergency on February 21, 2018. This law gives license to the TPLF and its agencies and agencies to kill, maim, torture and imprison with impunity. This will deepen the crisis.

Part II will follow next week

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By Tsegaye Tegenu (PhD)

2018-02-22

The political unrest of the youthful population in Ethiopia reflects the failure of top-down development approach in generating economic transformation and entrepreneurial ability at local level. In the local space there is no manufacturing economy that absorb the surplus labor and an economic sector that can be used for technological catch up. Despite six decade long efforts of top-down development, there is still a glaring lack of entrepreneurs that drive productivity growth and innovations at local levels.

Usually states typically intervene in private transactions in a society when such transactions have the potential to benefit a few at the expense of many. In the case of Ethiopia, the reason for state intervention in the economy was different. It was not related to the need to remedy the failure of the market (not related to the idea of addressing market failure). Rather, it was related to the idea of developing the national economy.

This approach has started since the middle of the 1950s every since the launching of The First Five-Year Plan (1955-1961). Since then the government prepared and implemented successive plans to transform agricultural and improve industrial productivity, eradicating illiteracy and diseases, and improving living standards for all Ethiopians.

Top-down programs for promoting local development through transforming communities and sub-regions continued after the 1974 revolution. In 1975, the military socialist regime nationalized private companies, banks, insurance companies and other financial institutions. In March l975, the regime nationalized rural land and granted peasants “possessing rights” to parcels of land not to exceed ten hectares per grantee. After 1991, the same approach continues. The difference is that today’s national and local development program directed by the state is extensive, faster and deeper.

Despite good intentions, the hitherto top-down approach to national and local development has failed to bring sustainable economic growth and poverty reduction. There are vast literatures assessing the performance of government policies (choice, design, implementation and outcomes).  Using meta-theories, such as the concept of underdevelopment, scholars like the late Professor Eshetu Chole, have examined the nature and characteristics of the national economy during the imperial era, the Derg socialist regime, and the post-Derg period. Despite changes in regimes, Ethiopia remained “underdeveloped”, to borrow the word from the title of his book.

The macro-economic thinking, approach and policy performance of the three regimes have been assessed with a display of erudition by Professor Alemayehu Geda, in his book “Reading the Ethiopian Economy”. According to his study, the economic performance of the country, though varied across the three regimes, is “generally disappointing”. Not only there continues scarcity of goods and services, the country also got into debt as it borrowed money from international institutions, and as in the case of large-scale land acquisitions, resources are taken away from local people. The studies of Professor Eshetu and Alemayehu shows that our approach to economic development matters: top-down thinking state-led development or bottom-up approaches led by market and local actors.

Effects of top-down approach

Often top down thinking and approach is criticized for its reasoning at the aggregate level much to the neglect of micro-economic foundations (rationality of households and firms). In the case of Ethiopia this is not only true but also, as the empirical evidence show, the top down approach has stifled the size and growth of the market forces and self-reinforcing economic development process at the local level. As a result, the size of the market based private economy is the least important part of the national economy.

In Ethiopia the top-down development programs have limited effect on private sector development considering the resources invested, the number of years it has taken, and growing size of the population. If there is any top-down effect it was level effect (raising the slop slowly) and not growth effects (modifying growth path at higher rate) and that too happened during the incumbent government in the early 1990s. As a result of the government’s privatization program, liberalization, foreign investment and donor support, the size of the private sector level increased from 11Pct in the early 1991 to 17Pct in 1995 and has remained unchanged significantly since then and stood at 20Pct, currently.

From my point of view the top down perspective and the macro-economic thinking prevailing in the past six decades did not make a proper inquire into the origins of population and market economic systems running in parallel in the country. Analysis of the effects of rapid population growth and the workings of the market (study of individuals, families, firms or other small homogeneous groups as buyers and sellers) are neglected or received only lip services. Under top-down approach and macroeconomic policy models the government is assumed to have full understanding of the transformation and growth problems of the country. Such type of approach and intervention resulted mainly to the growth of the economy directed by the state. According to 3D system accounting of GDP, the size of the economy controlled by the government has increased from 22Pct in 1992 to 39Pct in 2015. The size of this type economy increased at the expense of the market and the population economies (consisting mainly individuals, households and firms).

Studies by distinguished scholars and my 3D methodology of macro aggregate empirical results shows that we have to change in the style of thought and approach to create more jobs, develop technology, increase investment, accelerate economic growth and improve the standards of living. My view is that the top down and macro-economic approaches, which underline the role of the state have a useful role to play in economic thinking and policy, only if it’s underlying microeconomics are understood. It is under this condition where there private sector reach critical mass/size and where there is unflinching local self-development process that we have the right mix of private and state cooperation as we witnessed in the developed countries. Succinctly stated, the horse has to come before the cart, not vice-versa. I advocate the approach of local and private sector development as panacea to economic problems facing the country.

For an extended version of the article please read “Self-development of Private Sector in Ethiopia”

For comments I can be reached at Tsegaye.tegenu@epmc.se

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By Teshome Borago | Satenaw Columnist

In response to pressure from tribal protests, the TPLF dictatorship in Ethiopia is contemplating to replace its ethnic Welayta prime minister with an Oromo one. But for most Ethiopians, this old band-aid tactic is like putting lipstick on a pig; on a tyranny sustained by policies of systematic corruption, apartheid-federalism, nepotism and state-terrorism for 27 years.

Two leading candidates to become Ethiopian Prime Minister are Lemma Megersa and Abiy Ahmed of the Oromo People’s Democratic Organization (OPDO), an Oromo branch of the ruling party. Other than being Oromos, nobody can provide an experience or merit-based case for both candidates. Lemma was infamous for his controversial decision in 2017, banning ethnic Somali students from schools inside Oromia. Meanwhile, Abiy Ahmed helped spread TPLF’s spy program and he is a chronic self-promoter, who is famous for allegedly interviewing himself and editing his own Wikipedia page. One of the excuses thrown around for appointing Lemma or Abiy as PM has been to “finally” have an Oromo leader for the first time ever, as falsely claimed by foreign reporters who are not aware of Ethiopian history. Unfortunately, thanks to recent vile ethnic politics, many outside journalists do not know that both Ethiopian Emperor Menelik II (Oromo mother) and Emperor Haile Selassie were mixed-Oromos.

Lemma and Abiy’s vocal supporters also claim that both leaders are responsible for transforming OPDO into an independent Oromo organization that overcame the supremacy of TPLF. First of all, it is dehumanizing and disrespectful to Oromo people that the only hope Oromos now have is a “Made in Mekelle” organization that is created by TPLF using Oromo POWs. Secondly, there is no tangible proof that OPDO under Lemma is free from TPLF control. Other than a couple of speeches by Lemma & Abiy promising police accountability, nobody has seen a single TPLF police charged or imprisoned for the massacre of hundreds of innocent Oromos over the last two years.

Another “achievement” hailed by their supporters is the alleged respect for human rights of protestors and citizens displayed by local Oromia cops. But again, this ignores the reality that other minorities (like Somalis,Amaras, mixed and others) have faced death and displacement under the new OPDO leadership the last two years. After more Somali mass killings in Oromia recently, Lemma’s spokesman Mr. Addisu Arega Kitessa even made a disturbing comparison of the human rights of Ethiopian Somalis inside Oromia to that of a foreigner claiming rights in Mombasa. To this day, Lemma and Abiy have never apologized or condemned the humanitarian crisis for non-Oromos under their leadership, as exemplified by the rise of refugee camps all over eastern Oromia & Somali region.

According to media reports, most analysts still expect the TPLF to give thumbs up for an “Oromo prime minister” as a face saving measure. Considering past TPLF strategy of tribal chess games, this move will not be a big surprise. For instance, Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn served as a valuable puppet for the ethnic Tigrayan TPLF ruling party. Some naive western analysts and journalists initially thought Desalegn’s rise 5 years ago symbolized a “smooth transition of power” from the late TPLF dictator Meles Zenawi. It took a while for foreign observers to finally realize that real power never changed hands. In reality, it was just a reshuffling of positions to portray a false image that Tigrayans do not control the government. Indeed, Tigrayans inside the TPLF still control the government, judiciary, economy and the military.

Historically, before 2012, the title “President of Ethiopia” was the laughingstock of the country, as a powerless ceremonial post usually reserved for OPDO Oromos to save the face of the TPLF power-brokers. But after 2012, the “Prime Minister” title became the new object of ridicule. When Meles Zenawi died in 2012, the power and the mandate of a Prime Minister died with him. Even the diaspora activist Jawar Mohammed admitted that prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn was himself a “political prisoner” of the TPLF and was essentially liberated from captivity by “resigning” last week.

Consequently, the TPLF will not mind awarding the worthless premiership post to an OPDO Oromo, since there is no real power attached to the title anymore.

Yet, there are still some Oromos who are hopeful and optimistic about changes under an Oromo leadership on paper. They say: What if an Oromo prime minister goes rogue and orders complete removal of all TPLF figures from government & military? Could this happen and change the course of history in Ethiopia? It is very unlikely. Even if it happens, replacing a small minority rule (Tigrayan) with a big minority rule (Oromo) does not guarantee democracy, nor equal rights. Nonetheless, if any future PM or leadership, whether Oromo or not, seek legitimacy, they must:

1. End the one-party, one-tribe monopoly of economic and political power in Ethiopia
2. Establish independent institutions and hold free multiparty election.
3. Allow non-tribal real opposition parties like UDJ/Andinet, Blue Party and the Ginbot 7.
4. End the disastrous ethnic based apartheid federalism.
5. Establish genuine & micro federalism at the local level, including self-rule for the urban and self-rule for the rural (both ethnic & cultural communities.)
6. Promote individual rights and free market economy.
7. Organize a new Census that permits mixed-Ethiopians to be categorized under “ethnic Ethiopian” identity instead of being assigned or forced to pick one side.
8. Allow independent and private media in every region, including Tigray.
9. Allow independent and international observers to oversee the transition to democracy nationwide.
10. Transform the one-tribe military’s top leadership toward a national inclusive merit-based military.

Teshomeborago@gmail.com

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Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn resigned last week following anti-government protests.
A state of emergency has since been imposed on the country.
Ethiopia is one of the world’s fastest growing economies, having achieved double digit gross domestic product growth in recent years.
China provides much of Ethiopia’s foreign direct investment, and the east African country is a linchpin of China’s Belt and Road infrastructure scheme.

Justina Crabtree | @jlacrabtree
CNBC

Security measures are taken as the Oromo people protest against government during the Irreecha holiday in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, on October 2, 2016.

Ethiopia is one of the world’s fastest growing economies and a hub for Chinese investment, having rejuvenated its fortunes after a turbulent history marred by civil war and famine.

But, the East African nation’s political story is murkier. Given the surprise resignation of its prime minister and the declaration of a state of emergency last week following protests, CNBC takes a closer look at this major frontier market.

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Quartz
WRITTEN BY Abdi Latif Dahir

In a recent survey of social media use in Africa, WhatsApp—and its Facebook-owned sister app Messenger—was crowned the king of appsin Africa.

All except for one country: Ethiopia.

The Horn of Africa nation, joined by Iran and Uzbekistan globally, stood out as the only nation where Telegram was more popular than any other app. The ranking was based on data collated from the Google Play store for each country by Dec. 2017.

Telegram has 200 million users worldwide, compared with about 1 billion WhatsApp users. It’s on course to raise about $2 billion, mainly through an initial coin offering.

So why is Telegram popular in Ethiopia? It’s not immediately clear why the messaging service has emerged as the favorite alternative to WhatsApp or Messenger, but a few reasons give clues to its dominance.

Ease of use:

Gaining access to the internet is still very difficult in Ethiopia, with internet penetration at just 15% for its over 105 million population. And even though over 53 million people have mobile connectivity, just 3.8 million of them are active social media users. Part of the problem is that data is expensive and not competitive, given the government’s monopoly over all mobile and internet services through the state-owned Ethio Telecom.

Given that, the economics of downloading and using Telegram (49 megabits) versus WhatsApp (103 MBs) or Messenger (125 MBs) is part of what makes Telegram attractive in Ethiopia, says Moses Karanja, a doctoral candidate at University of Toronto and researcher at the Citizen Lab. In his research, he says, Ethiopians have told him how “frequent updates were too expensive” and that “internet bundles consumption is lighter and hence cheaper” with Telegram.

Secured connection

Ethiopia is highly restrictive of the internet and regularly blocks social media outlets. Recent research has also shown officials using commercial spyware to target dissidents abroad who have been supporting anti-government protests.

In such a sensitive political space, Telegram offers end-to-end encryption as well as a self-destruct timer that can remove messages without a trace. There’s also the option of checking your secret chats using an image that serves as an encryption key. The app’s programming interface also allows developers to create tailor-made interfaces for free instead of the one-size-fits-all functions of apps like WhatsApp. Telegram, which currently supports eight languages, is also expanding the number of languages developers can build into the apps. It also supports external language packs which help localize content and messaging.

Tool for political activism

Karanja says the secured connections might not be the main driving factor for Ethiopians. Indeed, the messaging service has been compromised in the past, with hackers identifying the phone numbers of 15 million Iranians many of whom share subversive information on the platform. The company’s commitment to free expression was also questioned after it removed content at the behest of the Iranian government.

Mark Kaigwa, the founder of Nairobi-based tech research company Nendo, says many Ethiopians could nonetheless be attracted to some of the other features that make Telegram unique. Key among these is the ability to create super groups of up to 100,000 members, hence facilitating political activism. In contrast, WhatsApp allows group chatsand broadcast lists of up to 256 people.

Marketing platform

The digital finance services delivery system is still in its infancy in Ethiopia, and the country has a long way to go in building its e-commerce system. But Telegram has allowed retailers and entrepreneurs a cost-effective way to promote products and provide timely and consistent information to customers. Users are also able to pay for goods and services.

Biniam Alemayehu, a resident in the capital Addis Ababa said, he liked Telegram since it was easy to store and share large files, like videos and audiobooks. He also uses it for shopping “since it’s relatively cheaper than the regular markets,” he said. “Telegram is cool.”

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Laureat Tsegaye Gabre Medhin 2.24.2018.

The post Laureat Tsegaye Gabre Medhin 2.24.2018. appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News|Breaking News: Your right to know!.

By Belay Zeleke

 February 24^th2018

I started writing this article around 5am eastern the day Haile Mariam Desalegn handed in his resignation. Around 8am eastern I heard the news and decided to wait and finish the article at some point in the future.

There have been numerous fast moving events that have occurred, from the freeing of a small number of prisoners to some shifting of personnel within the ruling parties in Ethiopia.  This is nothing more than window dressing. I want to lay down some obvious and foundational points. 1) None of these things is what the Ethiopian people have been asking for.  2) There is one and only one thing that the thousands of youth in Ethiopia have been asking for, and that is for EPRDF TO HAND POWER TO THE PEOPLE.  3) TPLF is still in charge.

The TPLF is still in power and they control the country. They will not give up their power easily and will fight to the death. A TPLF official named Getachew Reda has said it clearly when he stated that the TPLF has failed when they allowed the two biggest groups in Ethiopia to form an alliance. He went on to ignorantly postulate points about the two groups, which was based in falsities and not supported by facts. As a matter of fact in my opinion, he should be asked to step down from any position in the government since his statements are clearly prejudiced and inflamattory. The only way that the TPLF (which runs the EPRDF and hence the country) can stay in power is to divide and rule. So they must do all they can to sow discord as quickly as possible before the tsunami of the Ethiopian people drowns them.  I will lay out how they may be able to accomplish this. And why we should prepare for this potential.

1)   TPLF/EPRDF will delay delay delay and try to recover by developing new strategies and tactics. In my mind TPLF/EPRDF includes OPDO, ADNM, SPDM and all other entities within the current regime. Until and when these organizations decide to split from TPLF/EPRDF, they are still part of the problem.

2)   They are likely going to take advantage of certain so-called change agents within EPRDF/TPLF. There appears to be a certain cult of personality around individuals such as Lemma, or Dr. Abiy, or Gedu,etc… I believe this cult is not necessarily in Ethiopia but rather by a few opposition media and activists abroad, because we saw the tremendous amounts of people that came out to greet Dr. Merara, Obo Bekele, Eskinder, Colonel Demeke and others. By focusing on the personalities and not on the structural and transformational questions TPLF are setting the stage for conflict between the two main groups of people the they see as a huge threat. It’s a classic bait and switch tactic.

3)   The discussions in some (not all) media has slightly now shifted away from changing the regime and forming a transitional structure to who should be the next prime minister.  If these discussions start taking over the primary agenda then the TPLF setting the stage for conflict.

4) Elevating these people and then choosing one over the other will ultimately allow the TPLF to do as they please.  Let’s say for example TPLF now chooses Demeke  Mekonnen from ANDM to be the prime minister. This will be perceived as a slight against OPDO and potentially instigate conflict which the TPLF will gladly fan the flames. This will allow the TPLF to stay in the shadows use their agazi, secret police and military forces and continue killing Ethiopians.

Nothing has changed therefore the the struggle must continue.  The media and activists outside of the country should continue laser focusing on transformational/regime change. The media should not allow the discussions to be about which person is in power. I know that certain opposition media have a responsibility to discuss these minor issues, however in my opinion although they can acknowledge these minor events they should continue to talk more about what Ethiopians have been asking for 27 years.

Before the TPLF implements this potential scenario I urge and plead all opposition media activists to continue to strongly ask for regime change. Make it known that the TPLF may try to pull a fast one on us and prepare the public. Make it clear that Ethiopians are asking for regime change and free and fair democratic processes now. Everyone should push for structural and transformational change now before it is too late, too much blood has been shed and too many of our youth have been killed, imprisoned and tortured to let this opportunity pass us by.

Belay Zeleke

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