ESAT DC Daily News Mon 15 August 2016

Calls for international investigation emerge following deaths of more than 100 people in demonstrations last week.

14 Aug 2016 

Calls for an international investigation in Ethiopia have surfaced after more than 100 people were killed in demonstrations.

The violence has led to 400 deaths since November, 100 of them in the last week alone, according to human rights groups.

The Ethiopian government is accused of using excessive force in the Oromia and Amhara regions, where protesters have been calling for political reforms.

Human rights groups have called the response ruthless, while the UN wants to send international observers to investigate.

Ethiopia has denied that request, saying it alone is responsible for the security of its citizens.

But what can be done to ensure the Ethiopian government respects human rights?

Presenter: Folly Bah Thibault

Guests:

Getachew Reda – Ethiopian communications affairs minister

Felix Horne – Ethiopia researcher for Human Rights Watch

Ezekiel Gebissa – Profesor of History and African studies at Kettering University

Source: Al Jazeera

Ethiopian in Toronto Says no to TPLF Rule in Ethiopia

LONDON (HAN) August 15.2016. Public Diplomacy & Regional Security News. BY: Yemi Hailemariam. Watching the Ethiopian government shoot dead dozens of protesters last weekend made me sick with worry about my partner, who faces execution there for his political views. Andargachew Tsege, we call him Andy, is a British citizen and father of three. He is no stranger to protests in Ethiopia – he was a student activist in the 1970s, demonstrating against the then-government and eventually having to flee to London for fear of persecution. He would go on to become a key figure in Ethiopia’s pro-democracy movement.

In 2005, following years in exile, Andy braved a trip back to Ethiopia to launch his book, which criticised government corruption and abuse. He was among the thousands who were arrested in a post-election crackdown by the ruling party, the EPRDF – the group that still rules Ethiopia with an iron fist. Andy was badly beaten in jail, but was thankfully released a month later.

Back in Britain, Andy became general secretary of an opposition coalition and one of Ethiopia’s top pro-democracy activists. He testified to the US Congress about the dire state of human rights in Ethiopia under the EPRDF, and was a regular commentator on Ethiopian affairs for the BBC.

In 2009, Ethiopian security forces again moved to crush dissent, arresting dozens of people who had spoken out against the government. Andy was charged in absentia and sentenced to death, in a trial that observing US diplomats described as “lacking in basic elements of due process”. Ethiopia’s then prime minister, Meles Zenawi, who oversaw my partner’s death sentence, was an old university friend Andy had once hosted in London.

Andy continued to call for democracy in Ethiopia, criticising the regime’s human rights abuses and the suffocation of free speech. This authoritarian tendency escalated ahead of the most recent elections, where the EPRDF won 100% of the parliamentary seats.

Independent bloggers were rounded up and given lengthy sentences. Andy wasn’t safe either, even though he’s a British passport holder who had avoided stepping foot in Ethiopia for nearly a decade. In 2014, a few weeks before Andy, the kids and I were due to go to Rome on holiday, he was kidnapped by the Ethiopian authorities miles outside their border.

He was passing through an international airport in Yemen en route to meet exiled Ethiopian opposition politicians when he was snatched and taken forcibly to Ethiopia. He has been held there by the country’s security forces ever since, under sentence of death.

Weeks after Andy disappeared, British diplomats found out and told me what had happened. It broke my heart. I screamed and I wept, knowing Andy was now a captive in Ethiopia. He was in the lion’s den. There is no place more dangerous for him in the world. Here in London, I look at our three children and it just breaks my heart. I am really trying my hardest to stay positive, but I can tell that they see through this. It is especially hard on them. Our two twins turned nine without their father here, and our eldest daughter, Holly, has turned 16, taken her exams, and started college without him here. Sometimes the children cry and talk about their fears that their papa may not come home.

I am not allowed to visit Andy. While he was initially held in a secret location for a year, he is now detained in a prison outside the capital called Kality, which holds journalists and political activists and has been dubbed “Ethiopia’s gulag”. This nightmare has been going on for over two years. Our three children desperately want their dad back.

I can only imagine that the EPRDF is going to these extreme lengths because they know that Andy is one of the most important people in the Ethiopian opposition, and therefore represents a threat to them. Andy wants to see fairness, democracy and choice – which we take for granted in the US and the UK – offered to a nation that has spent decades under the oppression of dictatorial regimes.

So far the British government has refused to call for Andy’s release – a call that has been made by the UN, members of US Congress, the European parliament, and British MPs. The Foreign Office says it’s trying to get Andy a lawyer, but it’s plain that there are no fair trials for political activists in Ethiopia – just yesterday there were fears for 20 students from Addis Ababa who went on trial for protesting against human rights abuses. Will they join my partner in prison too?

This week’s protests are just the latest backlash against the terrible repression that Andy has been fighting his whole life. All his family in the US and the UK can do is hope that Ethiopia’s government will be persuaded by its allies to end the killing, free Andy, and finally allow space for democracy in Ethiopia. I urge the US and the UK to do all they can to make sure that happens, before more lives are lost.

www.geeskaafrika

ESAT Radio 30min Tue 16 Aug 2016

The article posted by Reprieve International, a registered charity in the UK, has somehow revealed the kind of challenges and the level of influence that EPRDF holds against the UK. The consistent refusal of the Ethiopian Government to give consular access and fair trial for Andargachew Tsegie, a 62 year old Briton, prominent critic of the Ethiopian regime, who was detained unlawfully in 2014 while transiting through Yemen, has caused uproars in the UK and among Ethiopian diaspora.

The email leak from the Foreign and Commonwealth Office (FCO) obtained by Reprieve regarding the consistent refusal to give consular access is an eye opening.The fact that the soft approach taken by UK has proved what Reprieve described as an “insensitivity” towards Tisge. Rather, contrary to the later’s assumption, EPRDF is actually bullying UK for its request to follow Andargachew’s case.

Donors influence

In Bible, Proverb 22:7 says “The rich ruleth over the poor, and the borrower is servant to the lender.” All African countries are indebted which, though indirectly, have shape their policy direction. Ethiopia too is among the heavily indebted country that is rapidly reducing itself as a “servant” to its lenders. Although, Ethiopia more than its national interest cares for the interests of its lenders; it also caters its dubious service in containing terrorism to barter for aid. EPRDF renders its service as along as receives financial and political support to its illegitimate rule. Foreign support is sought non-other-than to achieve the twin goals of regime security and development assistance.

Although, U.K is the highest lender/financier next to UN and WB its influence over the latter seems waning. EPRDF’s  conscious bulling towards UK, particularly with regard to Andargchew, is a clear indication that the later actually do lost its influence or will to encourage the regime for democratic reform.The reason why still tolerated the bulling as part of diplomatic business called  non-intervention needs further analysis. However, Reprieve’s quote shows the level of frustration that the FCO in the words of Philip Hammond, UK secretary for FCO, saying “lack of progress risks undermining the UK’s much valued bilateral relationship with Ethiopia”. still, despite warning and declarations, there is no any progress.

In 2015 for the third year running,  the government of UK met its commitment to spend 0.7 per cent of gross national income on foreign aid, with the official budget rising to £12.2bn and the biggest regional beneficiary of bilateral aid is Africa. Out of a total of £2.54bn last year Ethiopia alone received the £334m -the single largest amount in the continent. Why Ethiopia, even not a member of a commonwealth, receives such highest amount second to none? And yet Presumptuously give such huge amount to enable the regime.

The Department for International Development(DfID) Operational Plan 2011-2016 sets the reason for giving UK Official Development Assistance as “a stable, Secure and prosperous Ethiopia is critical to UK’s interest”. The literal meaning of the text gives how Britain sees Ethiopia and its role in the region. It matters in a range of Development, Foreign Policy and security reasons. Therefore, any negative change or disruption in the status quo would affect UK’s either real or imagined interest in the region. Therefore, continued existence of the regime is despite all its bad records and blatant refusal to heed reform calls, the west appeases using euphemisms like “anchor state”  for being their satellite and ” development with purpose” for dictatorship.

DfID’s annual review of aid effectiveness in 2014  has summarized the reason why UK is giving such colossal amount of aid. The reasons mentioned are some genuine and others hoax; particularly when a country like UK which prides itself being democratic funds a regime which becomes an epitome of torture.

The Human Right context of the review reads as follows:

Ethiopia’s second Universal Periodic Review was in May 2014. Of 252 recommendations, Ethiopia accepted 188 (including that the government will take steps to ensure the 2015 elections are more representative and participative than those in 2010), rejected 11 and noted 53 (including to invite the Special Rapporteur on torture and other cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment to Ethiopia).

Then one can see how a regime despite being the highest recipient of fund refused to be reviewed in almost all the programs pertaining vital human and democratic rights. Satirically enough, the regime’s commitment to make political space open to ensure 2015 elections to be more representative than the pervious, has absolutely controlled parliamentary seats which left nothing to the opposition. One would seriously question why the UK keeps funding a regime which is consistently disregards any recommendations that are vital to democratic reforms. Sadly keeps financing the regime despite lack of progress in core democratic values.

Forecasting the regime’s behavior the review concluded: “Civil and political rights: long-term trends suggest that commitment is consistently low. (Behaviors and practices in the security and justice sector, a restricted electoral environment, restrictions on freedom of expression.)”

The review clearly shows that the government of UK are fully aware of the regime’s nature and mode of operations in stifling democratic participation. In spirit and letter, the document albite in a limited way, tries to encourage the regime to become more tolerant and accommodative. Nevertheless, what the problem appears  is the UK’s soft approach, contrary to its cherished human rights and democratic values, has intentionally emboldened regimes’s resolve to remain in power.

The generous chasing enabled the regime to cling into power through the usual authoritarian means. And it seems perfectly working for the moment as the outcome of the 2015 election is endorsed half heartedly by the International Community.

Shared fear

DfID has explicitly affirms the importance of Ethiopia for its national security and believed a stable Ethiopia is critical to the region and beyond. Cooperations forged on security, migration and terrorism. Therefore, interests are intertwined and fears shared.

The rise of fundamentalism and lack of political control in the Horn of Africa has strengthened UK’s perpetual fear of terrorist attacks. All the incidents in the past: the London car, transit and subways bombs were organized by British citizens adopted from East Africa. Hussein Osman, with his Ethiopian born wife and sister in law, Yasmin Omar, and Mukhtar Said Ibrahim are from Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia respectively.

A recent study suggested the demographic composition of Muslims in the UK is set to rise from 2.9 m now to 5.6 m in 2030 from its current 2% of UK population to 4.6 %. As the majority of its Muslim community originated in Africa and its sizable numbers are from the Horn of Africa the strategic cooperation in security and terrorism is one major reason that the UK despite the later’s appalling Human Rights record keeps funding.

The US has its AFRICOM with modern  technological gadgets to track-down terrorist from its base in Djibouti and Ethiopia. Chinese also establishing its base in Djibouti. It appears for the UK the only way to keep its interest served is through establishing a satellite state. So Ethiopia, as its leaders are quick to align their interest with donors, are ready to serve in whatever capacity. So the genesis of unholy alliance is their mutual desire to control the flow of information, people and fundamentalism in the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia, an arch rival to Somalia with historical enmity is keen to monitor the movements of fundamentalism and U.K on the other hand, having a sizable Muslims from the Horn of Africa, have strong desire to contain terrorist threats.

Unconscious collaboration or Connivance?

Mohamed Ardous an Ethiopian born Briton arrested and convicted in Ethiopia is another example. Mr. Ardous has requested the United Nation to probe into his detention. His lawyer said his client has subjected to various tortures including electric shocks and depriving sleeps to extract confession at the infamous Maekelawi-which is dubbed Ethiopian Gulag. The Independent in its publication has wrote the detainee suspects that the British intelligence either unconsciously collaborated or  connivance in his arrest which prompted the head of the MI5, Andrew Parker, to respond by saying: “we do not participate, incite, encourage or condone mistreatment or torture.”

The Ethiopian government, what both the opposition and donors have failed to know about is, it operated based on premeditated and a well thought diplomatic manipulations. The arrest of other two Britons ( Mohamed Sharif and Mohamed Ahmed, from somaliland ) were very instrumental in convincing the UK that the Ethiopian government is a reliable partner in witch-hunting persons suspected as terrorist. As three Ethiopian born Britons were arrested since the Ethiopian Muslims started demonstrations. Later, the court passed a seven year prison term for the trio for an attempt to establish Muslim brotherhood and Islamic State and dozens of Ethiopian Muslim, notable Imams and journalists, are also convicted on similar trumped up charges based on a confession acquired through torture.

The documentary which was aired in the national TV shows the inhuman technics of interrogations being conducted on the detainees and how diligently the charges politically corrected to suite both domestic and foreign propaganda consumptions.

The  reasons why UK  hesitates to use its influence to free it’s citizens from the grip of an iron fist remains to be questionable. What exactly rendered UK to appease in face of such excesses is not a mystery that needs revelations.

UK should see its interest from the perspectives of the public than the regime which is neither permanent nor stable to depend on. The only way to  forge sustainable cooperation is to base relation based on democratic values and principles  that would reflect the aspiration of both nations. Development aid also should be evaluated from such approach than narrow and temporary interests.

Hiber Radio: Ethiopian Rio Olympic victory and embarrassing moment

The massive civil uprising in Ethiopia last week has captivated the attention of the world. Needless to say the world is now well aware of the protest by the Oromo ethnic group, the so called Oromo Protest, that has been going on for the last nine months. The second largest ethnic group, the Amhara, joined the uprising last week. The magnitude and consistency of the uprising in Amhara is quite a surprise and uncommon for many non-Ethiopians, including the mainstream media. It has however been observed that larger mainstream medias are reluctant to report on this uprising for reasons that remain unclear. On top of this, there is very little information available that exposes the immeasurable suffering of the Amhara people under the TPLF (Tigray People’s Liberation Front) dictatorial rule. This article aims to fill this information gap so that one may fully grasp the deteriorating political situation in Ethiopia – even though it is a daunting task to express inumerable years of suffering inflicted on the Amhara people in just one article. This should be considered a simple framework that outlines some specific insights.

Ethiopian forces have systematically used excessive force in their misguided attempts to silence the peoples voices.

TPLF is the current ruling party in the Ethiopian dictatorial government. There is no difference between TPLF and the government. TPLF was formed as a guerilla fighter group representing Tigrayan People which accounts for 6% of the Ethiopian population. When TPLF took power 25 years ago, it fabricated different political alliances in the name of other ethnic groups in the country, such as OPDO (Oromo People’s Democratic Organization) and ANDM (Amhara National Democratic Movement) representing the Oromo and the Amhara respectively. However, these political alliances have no legitimacy in the eyes of the people which they claim to represent. They are mainly serving the TPLF as a trojan horse to solidify TPLF’s sinister repression upon the people of Ethiopia.

Having said this, I will now attempt to discuss the untold and least reported plight of the Amhara people in two categories. The first category is The crime of ethnic cleansing perpetrated on the Amhara people . The second category will be The Welkite Identity restoration movement.

The crime of ethnic cleansing perpetrated on the Amhara people

TPLF’s unconstitutional political aim to systematically exterminate Amhara was not a secret at all; it was vividly written on the TPLF’s party manifesto stating that TPLF is anti-Amhara. This anti-Amhara message was indoctrinated into each member of the TPLF throughout their 17 year armed struggle. One of the first things TPLF did when it took power was to fully implement its goal. Commencing from 1991, the TPLF has systematically displaced, tortured, harassed and killed Amharas in the most inhumane ways in all corners of Ethiopia. In places like Harar, Aris, Jimma, Gurda Fera, Wollega and Afar, the Amhara people have been systematically exterminated. TPLF was the mastermind behind this notorious act. The most inhumane killings were in Bedeno, Hara. Sadly, the killings extended into the so called Amhara region in places like Metekel as well as the neighbouring Beni Shangul region. Apart from using the conventional way of exterminating and killing, TPLF killed thousands of Amhara people by denying access to medical care while they were affected by malaria and many other illnesses. There is tangible evidence that explains the incidents in depth. Speaking of figures – in the year 2010, when the Population Census Commission Agency announced the 2007/2008 population result to the Ethiopian Parliament , the agency officially confirmed that 2.5 million Amharas were missing. What was most shocking was that the same document from the Agency showed that the annual population growth of the Amhara region was 2.3%, but 2.5 million Amharas were missing compared to the previous Population Census result. One does not need to be an expert to understand the magnitude of the ethnic cleansing, when there is a decrease of 2.5 million people, while the annual growth of the population is 2.3%.

The Welkite Identity restoration movement

The issue of the Welkite Amharas has managed to get some attention due to the current massive unrest in Gondar and Bahir Dar. Unfortunately, Welkait, Tsegede, Humera and basically the whole of northern Gondar has been under the TPLF’s brutal repression for the last 36 years. The Welkait people are blessed with a vast and fertile land. This fertile land produces the largest export of cotton and oilseed for the nation. 36 years ago TPLF’s agenda was to kill as well as exterminate Welkite Amharas and in the long run take over their fertile land. TPLF tortured and killed around 30 thousand people in a prison camp called Bado Sidest. Bado Sidest is an underground prison and it was the main place where TPLF ran a miserable camp to exterminate Welkait Amharas in the most grueling and unspeakable ways. When TPLF assumed power in 1991, it illegally incorporated North Gondar and places like Welkait, Humera and others under the Tigray region. The Welkait community has been crying for justice for the last 36 years.

The Swedish Government is supporting such a dictatorial regime in Ethiopia. Why?

To make it clear for non-Ethiopian readers who are not familiar with the relations and diversity of ethnicity in Ethiopia, take this scenario: You invite a guest to your home. The guest stays for a long time and so you offer him a room to stay with you as a family. Now, imagine this: After a few years, the guest throws you out of your house, boldly claiming your house belongs to him merely because he has stayed in your house for a long time. Can you imagine that happening to you? The Welkait community has established a committee and has been demanding the restoration of their identity for a many years. The committee took all the necessary steps and appealed to every concerned government office in a mature way. They used the Ethiopian constitution as their tool. But sadly, the TPLF is always TPLF and cannot – and will not – respect the law. Instead, it started to kill, harass, intimidate and imprison the committee members.

This of course resulted in the current massive public uprising in Gondar and Bahir Dar. As you can see, people in Amhara have been brutally mistreated for the last 36 years and now they have had enough. The current uprising in Amhara region is massive, and is a big shock for the TPLF. As IBT UK news described it, it is the biggest anti-government unrest Ethiopia has witnessed in recent history. The TPLF is using heavy weapononry like tanks and trained military sniper soldiers to handle the uprising. As Amnesty reported, the security forces response was heavy handed but unsurprising. Ethiopian forces have systematically used excessive force in their misguided attempts to silence the peoples voices. During the last few days of massive civil uprising in the Amhara region, around 150 people have been killed. According to the aforementioned report from Amnesty, 30 people have been killed only in Bahir Dar. In surrounding villages like Dembia, Sanga, Sekota and others, the TPLF is actually engaged in a war with the barely armed farmers of Amhara.

Together in Solidarity

The very important aspect of the current unrest in the Amhara and Oromiya regions is that the Amhara and Oromo people show their solidarity for one another. In the Gondar and Bahir Dar demonstration people demanded justice for Oromo, with the same token in the grand Oromo demonstration. In all cities demonstrators shout for justice to be served in Amhara. This act, this solidarity, is tantamount to a death sentence for the TPLF. TPLF has been working tirelessly to create conflicts between the two ethnic groups for the last 25 years. The people of Oromia and Amhara, however, have effectively showed that they are there for one another.

Finally, I would like to conclude by asking a question to my dear Swedish readers: Is there anything you can do? As you can see, the TPLF is a dictatorship with blood on its hands. As I am writing this, the TPLF soldiers are killing countless peaceful demonstrators in Amhara and Oromia. Someone as peaceful as you who are reading this, is being killed right now. The ministers and diplomats of the TPLF dictatorial regime are criminals, but they come and shake hands with your leaders. Why? The Swedish Government is supporting such a dictatorial regime in Ethiopia. Why? I always believe that you, my dear Swedish friends, can do something about it – at least by sharing the information.

Wondemagne Ejigu

Wondemagne was born and raised in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. He was educated in Addis Ababa Commercial College in Human Resource Management and also have a Bachelor of Science in Information Systems from the Addis Ababa University. He has been working in both the National and commercial Bank of Ethiopia, and as a business consultant and local representative for various foreign companies. Ever since he was a student at the University, he used to contribute articles to newspapers. A few years back, he specifically started to write mainly about corruption and other social issues.

Bahirdar People s Protest and Agaze s Reaction August 17 , 2016 Ethiopia

ESAT Radio 30min Wed 17 Aug 2016

Ethiopians in South Africa demonstrate in support of Ethiopian peoples’ struggle for freedom

Ethiopia: A country in turmoil (ZDF heute-journal from 08/12/2016)

ESAT Radio Thu18 Aug 2016

Seattle Demonstration Aug 2016

The Horn: Another Civil War Looming
By Dawit Giorgis
August 18, 2016

Dawit Giorgis : A visiting fellow at the Foundation for Defense

A civil war, and possibly genocide, is in the making in the Horn of Africa, in Ethiopia. The most recent events characterized by regular countrywide demonstrations in defiance of a government ban, by the two largest ethnic groups, the Oromos and the Amharas, have demonstrated once again the power of a marginalized majority to wreak havoc and paralyze the country despite the state’s brutal response.

Ethiopia’s minority ethnic group, the Tigrai, which comprises less than six percent of the population of ninety million, has ruled the country with an iron-fist for 25 years. As was the case in Rwanda decades ago, the accumulated anger directed at this minority group is likely to explode and result in a human catastrophe with serious implications on regional stability.

The 2015 US Country Human Rights Report on Ethiopia states: “The most significant human rights problems included harassment and intimidation of opposition members and supporters and journalists; alleged torture, beating, abuse, and mistreatment of detainees by security forces; and politically motivated trials and arbitrary killings.”

The 2016 Human Rights Watch on the Oromo protests depicts a disturbing picture of a government that thrives on systematic repression and official violence. The report, which puts the death toll from the seven-month-long protest at more than 400, rightly exposes the myth of “Ethiopia rising” as a political “Ponzi scheme.” This figure does not include the100 killed during the first weeks of August.

To camouflage the repressive nature of the regime, the government and its international supporters have been blatantly asserting that Ethiopia has the fastest growing economy in Africa, while in actual fact it is one of the ten poorest countries in the world currently with over 10,000,000 facing famine.

Now, after 25 years of absolute control over the people, the regime is facing a deadly resistance to its iron-fisted rule and people are anxiously waiting for its staunchest ally, the US, to intervene.

“Washington must be prepared to press its partner to alter its strong-handed approach to political dissent and counterterrorism or consider ending the relationship”

In 2012 Genocide Watch reported “Genocide Watch is deeply concerned with the rising number of human rights violations in Ethiopia; as a result Genocide Watch is classifying the situation as a genocide alert. The warning signs have been there for sometime.

In the case of the Rwandan genocide administration officials admit that the US lost “opportunities to reverse the tide of killings at the earliest stages.” Information obtained through the US Freedom of Information Act shows that President Clinton knew about the planned “final solution to eliminate all Tutsis.” Over 800, 000 Tutsis and moderate Hutus were killed in this genocide. In 1998 Mr. Clinton apologized “for not acting quickly enough or immediately calling the crimes genocide.”

If civil war begins in Ethiopia it will be unprecedented catastrophe the likes of which has not been seen in Africa. It will also create an opportunity for extremist like al Shabab to flourish in next-door Ethiopia, which has a 40% Muslim population. Because of the Nile River, the lifeline of both Sudan and Egypt, instability in Ethiopia will be a major concern and it is likely that these countries will intervene either directly or indirectly. Together with the failed states of South Sudan, Somalia, Central Africa Republic, Yemen across the Red Sea, and with Sudan and Eritrea tittering as a result of US sanction, the Horn can turn out to be the most complicated security zone the world has yet to see with severe implications for maritime activities in the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea.

Because of the protracted war in the Horn of Africa over the last three decades, including some of the world’s longest war, the Horn has become the source of a huge percentage of the world’s refugee and migrant population. With civil war in Ethiopia this percentage can quadruple.

The US cannot afford to miscalculate the possible consequences of the gross abuses of power for 25 years. Its strategic interest, including the partnership on counter terrorism in the region, can be taken care better by a stable democratic government rather than a fragile autocratic regime, which is most likely to fall soon under the weight of people’s insurrection. Therefore, the United States should see beyond its short-term interest and support the establishment of an inclusive democratic government.

Dawit Giorgis was a visiting fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He is currently the Executive Director of the Institute for Strategic and Security Studies

 


Ethiopians Protest in Melbourne in support of Ethiopian peoples’ struggle for freedom

Published in The Huffington Post

Ethiopian security forces gunned down at least 100 people a week ago in the bloodiest weekend in the ninth month of anti-government protests. Unlike previous protests, which have been largely confined to the Oromia region, the protests on August 6 and 7 were also in the northern Amhara region. Altogether at least 500 people have been killed since November and tens of thousands have been detained during the largely peaceful protests.

The protests in Oromia started in November over the government’s approach to development, but as the crackdown intensified, protester grievances focused on longstanding abuses and discrimination. In the Amhara region, protesters have voiced concerns over the dominance of those connected to the ruling party in economic and political affairs, complex questions of ethnic identity, and other historic grievances. Protesters vow to continue, and there is no indication of a letup from security forces or new concessions from the government.

Security force torture of people in detention has been pervasive. Girma (not his real name), an 18-year-old student, was released last week from an Ethiopian military camp seven months after he was arrested at a protest with his classmates. He told me when I talked with him after his release that the nightly beatings left him with permanent injuries that make it hard for him to walk. He is banned from returning to school and afraid he will be arrested again if he seeks medical care. He still hears the screams of the “hundreds of protesters still there who were tortured every night.”

Donor countries to Ethiopia have been largely silent about the brutal crackdown, presumably in part due to the Ethiopian government’s strategic relationships on security, peacekeeping, migration, and development. For years, the US, the UK and other influential governments have basically rejected public condemnation of the Ethiopian government’s repressive practices. But a strategy of “quiet diplomacy” is increasingly limited as Ethiopia’s human rights situation declines and its heavy-handed response to the largely peaceful protests is fueling more anger and frustration.

The small bit of good news is that the international silence on Ethiopia was broken on August 10 when the UN’s top human rights official, Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein, told Reuters that an international investigation and accountability are needed for the killings of protesters.

The protesters I spoke with in recent weeks have been increasingly reassessing the effectiveness of their peaceful protests in the absence of justice, accountability, and international condemnation of the government’s killing, torture and arbitrary arrests. They told me they are losing faith in Western governments to offer even the mildest criticism of their government.

There are few opportunities inside the country to monitor the government’s human rights record, to hold officials to account, or to access justice. After elections in 2015 that did not meet international standards, the government holds 100 percent of the seats in federal and regional parliaments, preventing any serious parliamentary debate. The courts have little independence on politically sensitive cases and the misuse of the anti-terrorism law is illustrated through the ongoing trial of an opposition leader and advocate for non-violence, Bekele Gerba, the ongoing trial of a former World Bank translator, Pastor Omot Agwa, and the conviction of numerous journalists on trumped-up charges. Numerous restrictions on independent media and nongovernmental organizations result in little scrutiny of abusive security forces. International journalists also face restrictions as three journalists detained during the recent protests can attest to.

Ethiopia’s Human Rights Commission should be investigating abuses by security forces. But its lack of independence was underscored by its oral report on the protests to parliament in June. It concluded that the lethal force used by security forces in Oromia was proportionate to the risk they faced from the protesters. It is not known whether a written version of the report is available to justify such a seemingly politicized conclusion. The briefing was issued just a few days before Human Rights Watch issued a report describing the excessive use of force that resulted in the killing of an estimated 400 people during the first six months of the protests.

International scrutiny of Ethiopia’s rights record has also been lacking despite its June election to the UN Security Council, and its membership on the UN Human Rights Council – which requires it to uphold the “highest standards of human rights” and cooperate with UN monitors. Ethiopia has refused entry to all UN special rapporteurs since 2007. Among the outstanding requests are from the special rapporteurs on torture, freedom of opinion and expression, and peaceful assembly.

Ethiopia’s allies should back the call from the UN human rights high commissioner and press for an international investigation. Such a move will send a powerful and overdue message to the Ethiopian government that its security forces cannot shoot and kill peaceful protesters with impunity. And it will also send an important message to the victims and families that their pleas for justice are being heard.

Ethiopia’s allies need to urgently embark on a new approach to Ethiopia before the current situation descends into an even more dangerous and irreversible political and human rights crisis. They could play a leading role in pushing for investigative or monitoring mechanisms to hold the government to account for its brutal response to citizens exercising their fundamental rights to expression and assembly — or the toll of the dead and the tortured will continue to rise.

Girma, the young student, says he wants to flee the country once his health improves. “I’m leaving because there will never be justice in my country for what happened to me and the world will not do anything,” he told me. “So I will leave rather than wait for death.”

Members of Ethiopia’s Oromo ethnic group have been protesting the government since November 2015. Now that another large ethnic group, the Amhara, have joined them, the protests have become an unusually troublesome problem for Addis Ababa. (-/AFP/Getty Images)

Summary

Ethiopia’s government, led by Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, has contended with protests for nearly a year. The government’s efforts to quell the unrest have made headlines and drawn international criticism of late, but its problems go well beyond humanitarian concerns. Since the mid-1970s, Ethiopia underwent several periods of upheaval that changed not just the leaders of the country but also the political system and institutions that govern it. Now, with ethnic discontent reaching a new high and the tendrils of insurgency starting to re-emerge, Desalegn’s administration faces the greatest challenge to its rule yet.

Analysis

The protests erupted over a land reform measure, but the roots of discontent go much deeper. Ethiopia’s Tigray ethnic population makes up just 6 percent of the country’s population, yet it enjoys disproportionate influence and representation in government institutions. When the Tigray-dominated government proposed to develop farmland predominantly used by the Oromo people, who make up 34 percent of the population, protests broke out across Oromo regions from November 2015 onward.

Eventually, the government decided against the planned reform, hoping that the protests would dissipate. Instead, protesters continued to turn out, driven by the imprisonment of demonstrators. Then, in recent weeks, the Amhara people — another large ethnic group, accounting for 29 percent of the population — joined in, and the focus of the protests shifted to demands for political equality and an end to the Tigray-dominated ruling coalition’s reign. The protests have now surpassed any grievances about specific legislation, or any specific law enforcement action. Instead, there is a rising resistance to the Tigray’s outsize power and enough pent-up discontent to challenge Ethiopia’s current government.

Together, the Oromo and Amhara are a more serious threat to Ethiopia’s leadership than the Oromo on their own. Furthermore, the Amhara people are more concentrated in urban areas than the Oromo, which has led to protests in population centers. Facing mounting dissent from two of the country’s largest ethnic groups, the government has attempted to suppress the unrest through force. During the weekend of Aug. 7, reports emerged that over 100 civilians had been killed in protests, which led to outcry over the Ethiopian security services’ brutal methods to control the demonstrations. Because the Ethiopian government exercises strict control over media activity in the country and restricts internet access, reports of what exactly happened are slow to emerge. But information from local hospitals suggests that another 100 civilians have been killed since that weekend; at least 55 of these deaths have been confirmed. The rise of urban protests has also led to greater media coverage of the turmoil, despite the government’s attempts to control information.

A History of Upheaval

Ethiopia is no stranger to political unrest. For many centuries the country was run by a monarchy, the Solomonic dynasty, whose rule ended with emperor Haile Selassie. In 1974, a military council brought the first regime change, installing a communist-inspired military council, the Dergue, to lead the country. Eventually, popular support for the new administration began to erode, leading to civil war. The Dergue’s most prominent officer, Mengistu Haile Mariam, tried to reform the Dergue into the People’s Democratic Republic of Ethiopia in 1987, but just four years later, several ethnic rebel groups overthrew the government. The Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front, led by Meles Zenawi, eventually gained control of Ethiopia and installed the element that rules to this day.

The government in Addis Ababa has been challenged before. Unlike the ongoing protests, however, previous uprisings such as the Ogaden rebellion were isolated to smaller ethnic groups acting alone, and the government dealt with them decisively and successfully. By joining forces across ethnic lines to oppose the ruling powers, the Oromo and Amhara present a more formidable problem for Ethiopia’s leadership. Additionally, under Desalegn’s rule, the government has faced internal unrest and may not be as strong as it was during Zenawi’s rule, which lasted until 2012. As the chairman of the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front — the dominant party in the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front coalition — Zenawi led the fight against the communist government that preceded it and installed the Tigray-dominated government in Addis Ababa. His parliament consisted of fellow rebel veterans who had all fought and won together in the war against the Dergue, while Desalegn’s administration lacks the same unity and solidarity. The Oromo and Amhara protests will test whether the Tigrayan administration can endure without Zenawi.

A Budding Insurrection

At this point, the protests and limited rebel activity do not even approach the situation Ethiopia faced in the 1970s and 1980s, when the Dergue countered multiple severe rebellions. Nonetheless, given the size of the Amhara and Oromo populations in Ethiopia, the threat they present should not be taken lightly. As strong as they appear, the Tigray-dominated institutions in Ethiopia are not monolithic. And, because of their small number, the Tigray have had to co-opt members of smaller ethnicities (such as the Wolayta, from which Desalegn hails), and even the Amhara and Oromo, to serve in government and man the security forces. If opposition to the government increases along ethnic lines, the ruling elite or even Ethiopia’s security forces could fracture.

Since the bloody Aug. 7 weekend, protesters in some areas have turned to less violent forms of civil disobedience. For instance, in the Amhara city of Gondar — once the capital of an ancient Ethiopian empire — civilians have gone on a general strike, turning the city into a ghost town despite calls from the government to resume business as usual. Some reports even claim that local militia or rebel groups near Gondar have attacked convoys and bases belonging to the security forces. Though these incidents seem to be few and far between at this point, several latent insurgencies linger in Ethiopia, and growing ethnic dissent could rejuvenate and galvanize support for these simmering rebellions. In the past week, two rebel groups announced their alliance. If these groups increase their attacks, or if other groups join the movement opposing the government, the current administration could face a similar fate to the one it brought upon its predecessors.

The Oromo and Amhara protest movements could change the course of Ethiopia’s future, but it is not yet clear what the result of their uprising will be. A change of leadership could bring greater political freedoms, such as allowing outlawed opposition groups to take part in free and fair elections. On the other hand, it could also lead to prolonged conflict and instability. If the resistance against the government reaches critical levels, Desalegn could decide against an armed struggle and instead take political measures to liberalize or transfer power. Regardless of how this situation develops, Ethiopia’s Tigray-dominated government may not be able to sustain its hold on power for much longer. And though the current protests may be Desalegn’s first major challenge, they will likely not be his last.

A protester chants slogans during a demonstration over what they say is unfair distribution of wealth in the country at Meskel Square in Ethiopia’s capital, Addis Ababa, Aug. 6, 2016.

The U.S. is warning its citizens against traveling in areas in Ethiopia where there have been anti-government protests.

In a statement issued Friday, the State Department advised citizens to avoid areas where violent clashes between protesters and government security forces have taken place, mostly in the regional states of Amhara and Oromia.

It stressed that citizens “avoid demonstrations and large gatherings.”

Telephone and internet services have been limited due to recent protests, which has prevented the U.S. Embassy from communicating with citizens in the country, the statement added.

Since early August, the government has stopped local and foreign media outlets from covering the anti-government protests. On August 8 and 9, three accredited foreign journalists were arrested for 24 hours in the Arsi Negele area of the Oromia region, according to the Foreign Correspondents’ Association of Ethiopia, part of a nonprofit organization representing about 500 journalists in East Africa.

‘Extreme paranoia’

Fred de Sam Lazaro, a journalist with Public Broadcasting Service (PBS), was one of the reporters arrested during his trip to the Oromia region to cover the drought and climate change.

Speaking about why the journalists were arrested, de Sam Lazaro said, “There was no reason provided and we spent a couple of hours sitting in the police station in Shashemene and they essentially asked for our passport.” Shashemene is located in west Arsi zone.

He told VOA he was “horribly disappointed because we loved being in that country. I love Ethiopia because the stories are very rich, the narratives are very rich, and the culture is so rich and diverse.”

De Sam Lazaro returned to the United States a week ago.

“There’s extreme paranoia about control and political upheaval and that almost invites more scrutiny,” he said. Crackdown on civil society will only exacerbate the situation and raise more questions, he added.

“How have they been able to deal with the extraordinary ethnic tension that pervades the whole region? People are not happy, the Amhara are not happy. The Oromo people are not happy,” de Sam Lazaro said. “And where is the grand coalition that’s supposed to build this country, this leader in Africa, which Ethiopia is by virtue of its sheer size? It’s essentially shooting themselves in the foot in many ways.”

Deadly protests

Earlier this month, security forces killed nearly 100 people across Ethiopia in three days of violent protests, according to Amnesty International, opposition groups and local residents. Security forces opened fire on protesters, activists say.

The Ethiopian government blames the opposition in and outside the country for organizing what it calls “unauthorized protests by anti-peace forces.”

According to a statement by the government communications office, some protesters were carrying lethal weapons, including explosives. Opposition leaders deny the allegations, stating that the protesters were peaceful and unarmed.

The dispute in central Ethiopia dates back to November 2015. Demonstrators opposed a government plan to expand the municipal boundaries of the capital, Addis Ababa, into the Oromia Region. Farmers in the region were particularly upset, worrying that it could mean an end to their livelihood.

The government put the capital expansion on hold, and protests quieted down — but the grievance did not go away.

In early July, another wave of protests began, this time farther north in the city of Gonder, in the Amhara Region, where the main complaint is that three districts under the Tigray Regional State want to be reintegrated into the Amhara Regional state, observers say.