Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said Thursday that opposition politicians were trying to exploit uncertainty created by the coronavirus pandemic to seize power, risking instability.

The post appeared first on Satenaw Ethiopian News/Breaking News / Your right to know!.

Africans are reportedly evicted from their homes, tested for coronavirus several times and shunned in public.

They are China’s key trading partners but some African leaders have been angered by Beijing’s reported discrimination against their citizens.

They want answers from the Chinese government over reports that Africans are targeted because of fears they could spread coronavirus.

A recent rise in COVID-19 infections in China has been linked to foreigners.

The Chinese government is worried there could be a second wave and has stepped up its scrutiny of foreigners.

African students and expatriates have reportedly been evicted from their homes, tested for coronavirus several times and are being shunned in public.

The incidents have sparked a diplomatic dispute with the African Union, African governments and the United States.

So, is this a new form of racism? Or is it just Beijing trying to curb the pandemic?

Presenter: Richelle Carey

Guests

Victor Gao – Vice president of the Center for China and Globalization

Gabriella Dilan – Medical student from Uganda

Keith Richburg – Director of the University of Hong Kong’s Journalism and Media Studies Centre

Source: Al Jazeera News

The post Coronavirus: Why are Africans in China being targeted? appeared first on Satenaw Ethiopian News/Breaking News / Your right to know!.

Anne Harding – Contributing Writer, Nicoletta Lanese – Staff Writer 

Live Science
March 04, 2020

The post The 12 deadliest viruses on Earth appeared first on Satenaw Ethiopian News/Breaking News / Your right to know!.

By Dawit Giorgis

Ethiopia is a pioneer in the development of an institutionalized capacity to deal with natural and man-made disasters. Many countries in Africa took Ethiopia as a model for establishing their capacity to deal with disasters including epidemics and pandemics.  It was this capacty that was intially establsihed in 1974 (Relief and Rehabilitation Commission: RRC) and then went through a series of reforms, that enabled Ethiopia to manage successfully the largest and most complicated international humanitarian operations since the Second World War. The entire international community hailed it as a success story.  Many books have been written about this operation. It was an international effort, which brought East and West and the rest of the world together. It was a time when the world could afford to focus on Ethiopia, affected by severe drought, ongoing war and shortage of food and public services. It was this experince that made a necessary wake up call to the world.  Though Europe and America had their own local emergency management systems, they were caught ill prepared in responding to humanitarian crisis of that magnitude, outside their own borders. It was only after this tragedy and lessons learnt, that they made significant changes to remodel their international response capacities. It was this experience that made disaster management to be included in the curricula of colleges and universities. Disaster management was not being taught in schools until after 1986. I myself directly assisted several African countries in establishing their institutional capacity in Risk and Disaster Management and in some cases headed the response to the humanitarian crisis.

Politics aside Ethiopia had the institution, the experience and the expertise to handle such huge crisis like the COVID-19, though this was unique and universal.  In Ethiopia this institution has been politicized and praising the RRC and maintaining it, has been taken, as acknowledging Mengistu’s regime, though RRC operated independently from the government. It was allowed to be so because of the political circumstances and the internationalization of the crisis.  (Read: Red Tears: A book authored by me, dealing mostly with this operation)  The government (TPLF)

which took over  refused   to acknowledge the success of this institution and went to the extetnt of ablosihing it while many other countries were emulataing it.  Like the USA, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), with which RRC has worked very closely, it would have been the agency that could have played the central role in times of crisis like the current Corona crisis.  RRC was built for this and there were hundreds of people with a proven track record, who were trained and were in the front tline in the most diffcult times in our history.

Ethiopia  is considered one of the most disaster prone countries in the world. During the last few years Ethiopia  has experienced natural disasters such as drought, conflict, refugees and internal displacements,  floods, crop infestation, epidemics and environmental degradation . The hazard profile of Ethiopia is a consequence of its poverty, diverse environment  and the many wars and conflicts in the Horn of Africa over the lastt 30 -50 years. The combination of man made and natural disasters have  caused enormous suffering to our people.

Crisis like epidemics and pandemcis,  does not necessarily cause disasters on its own. It is peoples and governments inability to respond effectively to vulnerability that makes disasters.  The combination of hazards and vulnerabilities present in any risk scenario is socially generated over time. It is individuals and organizations, and governments that influence patterns of disaster risk. Their actions and interactions dtermine the level of impact of the crisis and increases disaster risk. Peoples and governments often become aware of their own contributions to disaster risk only after the effects are felt.

I have always  stated:  “ for  leaders, to be able to respond in an appropriate and timely fashion to a national crisis. they must have the confidence in the structure and system that is in place and the people who provide information. This means having a well organized, equipped coordinating structure with a  well considered arsenal of options at the disposal of the leadership and the financial and material resources with which to act, and the administrative mechanism capable of responding promptly and effectively.”

At this moment in time, when Ethiopia and indeed the world is being challenged by the most severe pandemics in recent world history,  the major agenda of the Ethiopian government should be to establish policies and  build the human and institutional capacity to plan and  implement a well conceived response for which the appropriate preparations have been made in advance.  Ethiopia had the lead time to prepare for this response. Time was on its side, but no more. Now it may be  running out of time and might be too late for millions.  Not mcuh is known what the government has being doing in terms of preparation since the crisis was first anounced by the World Health Organization (WHO). On March 1, WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic, pointing to the over 118,000 cases of the coronavirus illness in over 110 countries and territories around the world and the sustained risk of further global spread.

Preparedness is a process of contingency planning and capacity building. It involves several activities. The major compnenets are:

• Institutional and Policy Framework
• Early Warning
• Information and Communication System
• Resource Base
• Response Mechanism

Ethiopia had all the three above. The other two are dtermined by the partcualr challenges faced but the sytems for resource mobilization and response were in place since 1974. Today Ethiopia is caught ill prepared. During this ime of crisis RRC type of independent  non partisan organization would have presented the government with a well considered options for execution including lockdowns. Since there is no institution that can play this role,  a National  Task Force composed of the most senior and capable people (not politcians)  which includes experts, need to be organzed.

Africa has not been affected in a  way that was expected.  So far and against most predictions, the anticipated wave of infections and death has not yet taken place.  “It is a bit strange. Eerie. No one is sure what to make of it” said Dr Evan Shoul, an infectous disease specialist in Johannesburg, South Africa. Across the continent many doctors are asking the same questions. “ I think the more people we test, the more we will reveal whether it is an aberration, or it is real. The numbers are not yet there:” Precious  Matotso, from the WHO,  on the sisutaion in Africa. There is a general acknowledgment that it is very irresponsible  to reach any conclusions about the spread of the virus in Africa. People should not be com0000placent based on limited early data. Let us be on the side of caution and do what needs to be done.

LOCKDOWN

A lockdown is an emergency protocol that prevents people from leaving their homes shelters and areas. A complete lockdown will force people  to stay where they are and not exit or enter a building or a given area.

Based on the information that is provided to us by  WHO and CDC there is no other better option than  complete  lockdown, possibly phased, for countries like Ethiopia to prevent the spread of COVID-19. There is nothing better  than extreme social distancing to help individuals stay healthy, and to break the chain of transmission – giving more vulnerable populations a fighting chance of surviving this pandemic. The government will define Essential Services.

But how exactly does a lockdown work? And why is it important for even younger and healthier people, who face a lower risk of severe illness, to remain in their homes as much as possible?There is a lot of literature on the subject that responsible leaders should be reading today!!! Not knwing is not an excuse for leaders and infact can be a criminal behaviour The Goal of lockdown is Mitigation and Supression

The countries that have undergone lockdowns and the various study’s models show that, painful as lockdown may be, it has worked for millions in many parts of the wrold. Without any lockdown and social distancing measures we can only expect maximum infection and mortality

For Africa, where most countries have relatively weak health systems, and  millions of unemployed homeless people, the slow arrival of COVID-19 bought precious time to prepare. In collaboration with the World Health Organization and the Africa Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Ethiopia can now consder the bitter but necessry meaures. Time is of the essence, and urgent action to prevent an epidemic should be the overriding objective.

Based on the information available to the public, there is no other option except to go through weeks of lockdown with focus in the urban areas of the country   in order to slowdown the outbreak and prevent the full impact of the spread of the virus; which means millions of lives being lost with all the social political and security implications. There will essentially be two phases to the lockdown:

Phase One:  A committee composed of senior experienced people and experts in many fields, from Ethiopia and the diaspora need to be established to conduct an urgent feasibility study in consultation with the government, on the need of partial or complete lockdown in Ethiopia and how it can be implemented.  Its recommendation will be submitted. The government would be expected to take actions. It may have been done already but if it has not, it needs to be done immediately. The so-called emergency response declared by the parliament on 11 April is a timid response and will not solve any of the problems that the COVID-19 poses. It is pointless to comment on it.

Phase Two: This aspect of the work will require creative ideas. After the recommendation on the details of complete, possibly  phased lock down, has been approved   the government is expected to establish, by law, a National Task Force, composed of the military, the police, the regional militias, public health officers, epidemiologists, doctors, capacity building experts, disaster and risk management experts, logistics experts, supply chain management experts, social workers, nutritionists and mayors, civil engineers, in different relevant fields across ‘kilil’ and ethnic lines,  to oversee the implementation with full mandate and authority. The plan will include one of the hardest tasks of registering all the people in the three groups identified below, identifying free spaces for installation of tents and shelters, identifying schools and vacant or underutilized buildings, construction of shelters, compiling the logistics needed to move people to these shelters, blankets, mattresses, medical supplies, water tankers, cooking material, voluntary labors for the operation, transporting people and then making an international appeal for logistics and food supplies…etc.

The focus of the LOCKDOWN in Ethiopia should be this segment of the population, particularly in the urban areas. While people with incomes and shelters are simply expected to adhere to the lockdown guidelines issued and enforced by the government, the most challenging part, which will have the full attention of the Task Force, will be the three categories of people.

1. Those that will continue to be paid by their employers for the duration but live in very crowded houses and slums
2. Those who will lose whatever job they have and have no shelters or live in slums i.e. street vendors
3. Those homeless people who never had homes or incomes

At the outset it must be accepted that based on the experiences of  USA, UK, Asia and other African countries, those affected by the virus and dying because of it are disproportionally   the poor and the marginalized population. How can these people self isolate when they have no homes and live on the streets or in make shift shelters, or live cramped and shared accommodation? How can people study on line when the great majority of Ethiopian students dot have and access to Internet or don’t even know how to handle the Internet.  How can they stop working when they have no other means to survive, to feed themselves and their families?

In the USA as the disease spread at a higher rate in the black community, environmental, economic and political factors compounded for generations, put  “black people at higher risk of chronic conditions that leave lungs weak and immune systems vulnerable: asthma, heart disease, hypertension and diabetes. In Milwaukee, simply being black means your life expectancy is 14 years shorter, on average, than someone white. “

There are lots of details in this operation that focuses mainly on these categories of people. Ethiopia has many kinds of organizations at grassroots level, in rural and urban areas. In urban areas there are ‘kebeles,’  ‘idirs,’ and many kinds of social organizations either in the form of NGOs or just associations, which can be effective partners. In rural Ethiopia there are even more organized association like the Gada system in the Oromo regions, peasant associations and several national NGOs working with the people. These could also be an integral part of The National Task Force.

Lots of ideas will emerge as open discussions begin  with people of different expertise and experience.   Getting the resources will not be the most challenging. The WFP, UNICEF, WHO etc. and some bilateral governments will be part of the Task Force if the government asks them. This is going to require the full and unmitigated support of the international community and the diaspora and I am quite certain they will be prepared to provide food and essentials. Asking for direct money from the international community will make the operation suspect to corruption. The efforts should be to get what we need in kind. The most challenging part is the organizational capacity to mobilize the local and international resources and to effectively distribute and provide the services required. That will be the responsibility of The National Task Force. Not Easy!!! But can be done.

Isolation and Hygiene: Once the issue of sheltering and feeding is sorted out the issue of how these people and the general public is expected to adhere to the guidelines of the lock down, i.e. hygiene, distance keeping and treatment when cases are identified., need to be addressed. In other words, the shelter arrangement should enable people to wash their hands keep their hygiene and at the same time keep distance from one another.  If this cannot be done the whole purpose will be defeated. Even with the availability of the means to manage hygiene and keep distance from other people,  there will still be people who do not adhere to these guidelines. Therefore enforcement would be necessary. This part can be considered together with the next point.

Law and Order: In all these exercises and from the day that the decision has been made for a complete or partial phased lockdown there will be several security threats. There will almost certainly be some unruly elements that will start looting, vandalizing and in these highly etnhicized situation of Ethiopia, even politicize the crisis and destabilize the nation. This is a national issue and people should not be allowed to play politics.  The government will be required to take decisive steps. Here again government should learn from other country’s experience. I.e. (Kenya, South Africa, Rwanda and India) we do not wish the enforcers to be part of the problems. Training and accountability are important components of this responsibility. Particular attention should be given to the large number of criminals that have been released without any means of monitoring their activities and assurances that they will not go back to their criminal lives.

I am not trying to make it look easy. It is complicated and very sensitive but there are no other options to reduce the spread of the virus and the number of deaths. The Lockdown must be meticulously planned and coordinated vertically and horizontally. There should not be any room for mistakes, misunderstandings or lack of coordination. This is not the job for political cadres or activists. This is the job of purely hard working compassionate educated experienced and motivated people. The functions of every sector  and every individual must be clearly defined and  backed by  authority and resources. If attempts are made to politicize the operation, either by the central government or the regional authorities, the whole thing might collapse and might end up being a bigger disaster than the virus could have caused.  The biggest mistake a government can make in such times of crisis is to lie  to its people. There must be trust between government and the people, at least during the duration of the  pandemics gripping the nation.

The government needs to have complete ceasefires immediately and should refrain itself from waging unwarranted conflicts. All conflicting parties must agree to some kind of truce. This is the paramount duty of the government. Such kinds of humanitarian operations cannot be successfully conducted in the midst of conflicts.

Ethiopia has enormous experience in mobilizing people for war and for other emergencies. In 1974 RRC established over 110 feeding centers and shelters for over 3 million people across the country. It was able to shelter, feed, and provide medical services for over two years with the support of the international community. During the Ethio-Somali war in 1978 the government brought together over 300, 000 young people from across the country in one month and provided a 3 month military training at Tatek and prepared them  for war, all in a matter of four moths. The people of Addis cooked and fed these recruits for the entire duration of the training. Ethiopia was able to repel the aggression as a result of the cooperation of the people of Ethiopia. Again between 1982 and 1985 during, the well known famine relief operation, the RRC with the unprecedented cooperation of the international community fed and cared for over 6 million people in various shelters across Ethiopia. Millions more were helped in their homes and villages. These experiences show that our people have the resilience, the experience and the capacity to be organized to provide assistance to those that will be disproportionally be affected by the virus and the lockdown. What it takes is well considered decisions and leadership

Lockdowns come together with the declaration of state of emergencies. State of emergencies by themselves does not solve the problems. State of emergencies creates the necessary conditions to implement emergency and much needed operations. It means governments have extraordinary powers to do what they deem necessary without any checks and balances. Authoritarian leaders use state of emergencies to suppress freedom of speech  and expression, lockup opposition leaders, curtail the free movement and restrict all activities that gives them a political advantage. That has been the experience in numerous countries. In times like this when people are at the mercy of God and their leaders they are in lesser positions to fight this back. We just hope that leaders will exercise maximum wisdom and compassion and retrain from abusing their powers.

Lockdowns should go together with testing, The effects of lockdowns will be much reduced if it is accompanied by wide spread speedy tests. Testing, Testing, Testing is the key to prevention, mitigation  and containment. At the moment people in Ethiopia are made to believe that testing is imprisonment. Information should be ahead of this to educate the people that testing is being done not in prison but in clinics with due care for the benefit of the people. People  are running away because  they have been wrongly informed that it is indefinite harsh confinement in some weird places. Stigmatization will also be another problem. In some places in Africa people avoid,  abuse and chase people suspected of corona virus infection.  Government, through the Task Force should also be educating people that infection by corona virus can happen to any body and clearly explain the way it is transmitted. Coughing was no longer a normal thing as people now associated it with the virus. One person said, “I was used to people coughing and it was normal.  Now it is  not normal. We run away.”

As of today the United Sates has the largest number of infections and deaths of the corona virus The US has the highest number of confirmed cases, with a death toll of more than 20,000. Global confirmed cases stand at almost 1.7 million, with more than 100,000 deaths. The US has overtaken Italy to become the country with the highest number of confirmed cases, with more than 20,000 deaths.

Washington Post wrote on April 4: “It did not have to happen this way. Though not perfectly prepared, the United States had more expertise, resources, plans and epidemiological experience than dozens of countries that ultimately fared far better in fending off the virus “  It is all about speed and bold decisions. This is unlike any disaster.  It does not just come and go. It will be there for a while.  The decisions taken will exacerbate the economic situation of the people but it will save lives. The government will be judged on what it did to day to save the lives of the people not what it did the to save the already faltering economy. The government can take this as an opportunity to revive the unity of its people and come out of this crisis with lessons learnt on the need for unity and be in a better situation for the economic recovery of the nation.

It is extraordinary times. It needs extraordinary decisions.  It is all about leadership. All eyes are on the leaders more so when the crisis becomes more intense. The challenge of leaders is to listen to people and experts not themselves. In the meantime let us stay positive and be united.

END

Dawit  W Giorgis, Visiting Scholar , Boston University

African Studies Center

————————————————————————————

The post Lockdown: Proposal  Ethiopia Under Siege by Cororna Pandemics appeared first on Satenaw Ethiopian News/Breaking News / Your right to know!.

CPJ

Nairobi, April 16, 2020 — In response to Ethiopian authorities’ new terrorism allegations against broadcast journalist Yayesew Shimelis today, the Committee to Protect Journalists issued the following statement:

“Ethiopian police had no business arresting journalist Yayesew Shimelis in the first place, and now they are doubling down on his detention by introducing new dubious accusations, revealing how little they care about due process,” said CPJ sub-Saharan Africa Representative Muthoki Mumo. “Yayesew should be released immediately and unconditionally, and authorities should stop weaponizing the legal process to retaliate against journalists, which will chill the flow of information”

Police first arrested Yayesew, who hosts a weekly political program on Tigray TV and contributes a column to the privately owned Feteh magazine, on March 27, on allegations that he alarmed the public by spreading false information about the COVID-19 pandemic, according to media reports and CPJ research from the time. Yesterday morning, a court in Addis Ababa ordered Yayesew be released on bail, but police appealed the order, and then accused him today of violating anti-terror laws, according to news reports and the journalist’s lawyer, Tadelle Gebre Medhin, who spoke to CPJ via messaging app. The Federal High Court ordered him to remain in custody until April 20, according to Tadelle.

Tadelle told CPJ that over the past three weeks Yayesew had suffered medical problems in custody, including back pains and a stomach ailment.

The post Ethiopian police hold journalist Yayesew Shimelis pending terrorism investigation appeared first on Satenaw Ethiopian News/Breaking News / Your right to know!.

Ethiopia is currently facing a multitude of problems on a scale that we have never seen before. To say that such problems only come about once in a few centuries would not be an exaggeration. In the last five decades, the country has gone from one crisis to another. The current predicament is perhaps the most challenging one and has many observers worried about whether we can overcome it. We believe many Ethiopians are now recognizing this, and they are terrified.

In part 1 of this two-article series, we will discuss how Ethiopia got into this predicament, the situation we are currently in, and what we should do in the interim. In the second article, we recommend mid-to-long-term strategies and what Ethiopians should do to take the country out of these cycles of crisis.

Both the short and long-term solutions require concerned people to act, in great numbers. At this point, inaction means a decision to accept the unacceptable. The omen in front of us cannot be removed without a determined and sustained effort from all of us, together.

To world powers and friends and partners of Ethiopia, you should be as alarmed as we are. It is time to put immense pressure on Ethiopian politicians to bring them to talk to pull the country back from its crisis, and potentially the brink of anarchy.

As an interim solution, we call for the establishment of a national unity government. We believe, Ethiopians, friends of Ethiopia, and all concerned bodies should demand it.

Much of this article was written earlier this year but held-off due to the global virus pandemic. This two-part article is fairly long. We hope you will bear with us since we have so much to talk about.

Introduction

On May 27, 1991, a group of men was assembled in London, United Kingdom, to decide the fate of the country of Ethiopia. With all but the exception of one, the Derg Prime Minister Tesfaye Dinka, they had more regional and/or secessionist views in their background. One of them, Isaias Afwerki, was not only determined to secede his soon-to-be-formed country (Eritrea) but was also longing to see Ethiopia weak and divided. This meeting was called by the then-US Assistant Secretary of State Herman J. Cohen, who served as a mediator. Other attendees included Meles Zenawi, the leader of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the now-defunct Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), and Lencho Letta, the then Deputy Secretary-General of the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF).

The conference was meant to explore ways in which to set up a transitional government in Ethiopia and discuss other issues for a new order in the region. However, the meeting was overtaken by events on the ground in Addis Ababa. Word had reached Cohen that Lieutenant General Tesfaye Gebre Kidan, acting President of Ethiopia at that time, had lost control of the remaining government in Addis Ababa, which was under imminent threat of a complete breakdown of law and order. Herman Cohen then recommended that the EPRDF forces move into Addis Ababa immediately and establish control there. They were backed by Eritrean People’s Liberation (EPLF) forces, which were already in the vicinity of Addis Ababa. And so, began the nearly three-decade-long rule of the EPRDF over Ethiopia. During this time, Isaias Afwerki is said to have declared that he had given Ethiopia a one-hundred-year assignment.

Now, three decades later, Ethiopia finds itself divided amongst many ethnic lines, each increasingly more distrustful of the other. Communities that lived in peace and harmony for centuries, regardless of their differences or misgivings, now find themselves insecure and unsure of the future. Ethiopia is being torn and threatened from many sides. Consider the following:

• Roads connecting cities and towns have become more and more treacherous. Now, in some locations, just a handful of people can stop vehicles and make demands.
• Brazen crimes, including killings, abductions, rapes, and even bank robberies (hitherto unheard-of in Ethiopia) are taking place in some cities and towns, and in full view of citizens.
• In the last two years, virtually all parts of the country have seen some level of ethnic violence, including Oromia, Southern Ethiopia, Amhara, Benishangul-Gumuz, and Dire Dawa.
• In 2019, Ethiopia became home to the highest number of internally displaced people in the entire world. By some accounts, close to 3 million Ethiopians fled their homes and towns seeking protection.
• More than 10 zones in the SNNPR (Ethiopian southern region) are now demanding statehood or other related status. Sidama Zone has already managed to become a state, after some campaign, sharing the city of Hawassa as its capital with the rest of the SNNPR.
• Oromo activists are claiming ownership of Addis Ababa, a highly multi-ethnic city made up of about four million residents who hail from virtually every corner across Ethiopia.
• Border and identity disputes are simmering in the background, in some parts of the country; particularly worrisome is the dispute between Tigray and Amhara, which could explode at any time, but there are also disputes between Oromia and various neighboring states.
• Militia forces are mushrooming throughout the country, some of which are independent of state institutions. Now, almost every state is arming itself as if there is no national army. The twin killings of state leaders in Amhara and military leaders in Addis Ababa in June last year shows how far we have come, compared to just a few years ago.
• Some universities have become deadly grounds for students. Reports of torture, abductions, rapes, and killings, including some thrown from heights, have come out – and as a result, tens of thousands of young Ethiopians are now deciding to stay home.
• Once-mighty religious institutions, such as the Ethiopian Orthodox Church and the Islam Council, are now pleading for peace, security, and the rule of law, not only to protect the average citizen from violence but also to protect themselves. A few years ago, the mere sight of a cross or a crescent would instill a solemn moment in anyone’s mind – but not anymore, with some people.
• After years of repression, civil societies and the media in Ethiopia remain underdeveloped and weak. They are of no help, regarding the worsening situation in the country.
• Ethiopian governing and opposition political parties also remain weak and fragmented. Many are only regionally focused, and some have questionable ties to foreign powers, including Eritrea.
• The federal government, which at the beginning was considered a godsend by many Ethiopians, is now increasingly viewed as a partisan force and criticized for its inability or unwillingness to enforce the rule of law uniformly. Ethiopians are unsure whether what they hear is the same as what is actually happening on the ground.
• Even more troubling is the fate of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces. Given the accelerating ethnic division in the country, some of us question whether our national army can (and will) stay whole and united. If god forbid, Ethiopia ever loses this vital institution, it may mark the point of no return. This will make the task of holding Ethiopia together immensely difficult and may require considerable foreign involvement and decades of painstaking effort to accomplish.
• Ethiopia’s economy has been on a steady decline in the last few years. The outbreak of the novel Coronavirus this year is expected to have a devastating effect on the already weak economy, in addition to the lives that will be lost as a result.

The portrait painted above is not the portrait of a healthy country. Indeed, Ethiopia is facing a historic crisis like no other. Dealt with several blows in succession over the last half-century, the country is staggering, and the odds arrayed against it are massive, extensive, and intertwined. The question sitting in many of our minds right now is this: will we survive as a united country?

What is truly so heartbreaking about Ethiopia, however, is that its people are one of the most peace-loving, god-fearing, and patriotic people on Earth. They have lived side-by-side for centuries in crushing poverty, even in hunger, but never in the violence which so often comes with it. On travel sites and blogs, one thing that visitors say about Ethiopia over and over again is how safe the country was, especially when compared to many other African countries. And that has been the case until very recently, when Ethiopia ranked as one of the safest places to visit in Africa, on par with countries such as Botswana, Mauritius, and Rwanda.

Those of us who grew up in Ethiopia can readily attest to the fact that Ethiopians are people to whom mercy and forgiveness come so naturally, and to whom conflicts, big and small, are to be resolved naturally by negotiation. These are people who are deeply religious, yet tolerant of other religions, praying for peace and unity as they always have in the centuries before. For so long, they have lived together despite their differences, as proud Ethiopians, always rising in unison when attacked by foreign aggressors. Despite long odds, Ethiopians were able to repel colonizers and become the symbol of hope, independence, and freedom for the rest of Africa, a continent which ultimately bestowed-upon them with the highest honor it could possibly give: the seat of the African Union.

Now, as the cracks spread and deepen, Ethiopians everywhere are unsure where to even begin, in remedying these issues. The battle lines are unclear and blurry. Many are reduced to prayer for the survival of their country and the government that brought them to this situation in the first place. They are clinging to a party that ruled over them with an iron fist for three decades – a party with a checkered past of allegiance to them as people. What would have normally already led to a violent overthrow of the state in other countries – considering all the things that have happened over the last three decades – has many Ethiopians praying for its survival, out of not seeing a better choice.

So, what really happened?

In order to find out what really happened, one must first go back decades to examine some key facts. As we will elaborate-upon later, the root cause of Ethiopia’s problems is the country’s relative backwardness. Ethiopia has certainly made a lot of progress in recent years, but at the moment, it still remains one of the least-developed countries in the world. The country is poor, even by African standards. For example, Ethiopia ranks 35th in GDP per capita with purchasing power parity (PPP) out of some 55+ African countries. (PPP takes the purchasing power of the local currency into account when calculating GDP). Ethiopia’s GDP per capita PPP is about 10% of the average of the top 10 wealthiest countries in Africa and about 15% of the top 20. And if you consider the top 10 leading democracies in Africa, Ethiopia’s GDP per capita PPP is about 20% of these countries’ average. So, even by African standards, the country has a long way to go.

Low GDP per capita also means low standards in pretty much everything, including the development of state institutions, education, health, civil societies, and media. A country’s ability to withstand adversity also diminishes. Countries face all kinds of crises, sometimes homegrown, sometimes foreign induced. In the last 50 years, Ethiopia has received no less than five major shocks, including the Derg brutality; the civil war that followed; the Eritrean secession; the border war with Eritrea; and the ethnic politics of the EPRDF. The current instabilities may be the sixth and most challenging shock of all. Whereas stronger countries can deter or overcome such challenges relatively quickly, Ethiopia is currently struggling.

We do not believe that Ethiopia’s current problems stem from higher interethnic differences than many other countries. In fact, one can cite so many other countries around the world that have much larger ethnic and language differences than Ethiopia does. For example, Uganda, Libera, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Cameroon, India, and Indonesia are all more diverse than Ethiopia, according to diversity surveys. Even some major, developed countries are not without significant economic and political friction between states or groups inside them; but none of them have come close to the brink of anarchy or disintegration as a result.

Ethiopia had been poor and nearly isolated for much of Emperor Haile Selassie’s rule as well as during the centuries before when the country made little progress in all aspects of development. Although proud and united, it remained underdeveloped, poor, and hungry. For so long, few Ethiopians would venture outside of their country to bring badly needed modernization. The country was led mostly by people who owed their power to birthright, or otherwise who held allegiance to those who did. Peace prevailed for a long time but at the cost of stagnation. After more than 40 years of rule, things did not continue as intended. Then came a cohort of army officers, the Derg, who violently seized power in Addis Ababa. These officers knew very little in pretty much every aspect, including in governance and international diplomacy. They soon began to toy with socialism and all sorts of novelties in their governance. More tragically, they also unleashed a terror campaign – appropriately named the “Red Terror” by the government – with a cruelty never before seen in Ethiopian history. The country suffered immensely. Tens of thousands died due to various instruments of terror; hundreds of thousands more fled the country. Many were raped, tortured, or killed en route to their destinations. The exact number of Ethiopians who suffered all kinds of fates, at home and abroad, is unknown, but it could be in the high hundreds of thousands, if not millions.

That period also led to a highly unstable Ethiopia – partly due to the unwise decisions of the Derg, and partly due to changes in global geopolitics. In 1991, the country suddenly found itself at the mercy of secessionist and/or regional forces, which saw very little beyond securing and consolidating their own personal and group power. That was the beginning of the preeminence of ethnic nationalism as we know it today, one which sent Ethiopian nationalism into a deep coma.

Following that London meeting in 1991, the country’s fate was decided by a group of forces that many Ethiopians felt showed little concern for Ethiopia’s long-term interests. A country of some 50 million people (at that time) – about 8% of the African population – was relegated to a landlocked status, making it the largest-such country in the world. Ethiopia’s new status was sold to the public as a non-event, using catchphrases such as “gimel metecha”, which were thrown around rather callously in order to trivialize the mighty sea. Some politicians who echoed that sentiment are still prominent in Ethiopian politics today.

As some had feared, this did not go without consequences. Today, by some accounts, the country pays $1.5-2 Billion USD in port fees to Djibouti alone. This might look small at first glance, but it is quite significant when compared to the country’s total export revenue. Between 2012-2017 (the good years in Ethiopian exports), the average export revenue earning for Ethiopia was about $3.8 Billion USD per year. Assuming the mean value of port fees, the Djibouti port expenses were thus more than 45% of all export earnings. When all import-export revenues are added, for the same period of 2012-2017, the Djibouti port fees account for 10% of that figure. This means that Ethiopia paid about 10% of all import and export commerce to Djibouti. And this expense does not account for the costs of delays and inefficiencies when dealing with a sovereign country and navigating the tenuous routes leading to the sea. In the world of business competitiveness, this levy is catastrophic, bearing in mind that many Asian economies rise and fall on margins of 10% or less.

On the political front, the country went on to be ruled by a “coalition” of ethnic parties under the umbrella EPRDF. The country was divided into regions known as “Kilil”, based on language and ethnicity, and it didn’t matter whether the Ethiopian people wanted that arrangement or not. Suddenly people were being identified as ethnic persons of one group or the other – even on their ID cards. The state media was suddenly awash with the names of the various states: Benishangul-Gumuz, Gambella, Somali, Tigray, SNNPR, Amhara, Oromo, etc. Many Ethiopians went on to resent such divisions and, today, blame it for the various ethnic conflicts that Ethiopia is currently going through.

It must be noted that federalism by itself was not, and is not, the problem – because federalism is not something of a novelty that is only unique to Ethiopia. On the contrary, today, there are no fewer than thirty modern countries that have federal systems, including Australia, Canada, Germany, and the United States. Likewise, the presence of regional parties was also not the issue. So many countries in the world have them. What was different in Ethiopia’s case was the absence of truly national political parties, parties that could promote national interests to balance regional interests, and the institutionalized ethnic division that followed. The dominant political parties that existed during much of the EPRDF’s reign were ethnic, and the environment for the truly national parties was extremely harsh and challenging. Aspiring politicians had no choice but to join one of these regional parties, or they would be relegated to sit on the sidelines. A few chose to brave the daunting political environment, and they paid a heavy price; some fled the country.

The first seven years of EPRDF rule were perilous times for Ethiopia. For one thing, the economic and political arrangements with Eritrea were murky. Although Eritrea had gained independence by that point, it continued to share the Ethiopian currency as usual. It also continued to trade and do business inside Ethiopia – as usual. There were reports of unfair (even thuggish) practices by the Eritrean regime during that time, including that of manipulating exports, counterfeiting currency, and even becoming a security threat to Ethiopian citizens.

A far more consequential development, however, was what happened to the military-security establishment. Little-noticed at the time, and for some unknown reasons, the EPRDF government demobilized much of the country’s armed forces, ostensibly for economic reasons. By 1998, Ethiopia had about 50,000 people in its defense-security establishment, support staff included, against Eritrea’s 200,000+. When Eritrea announced a new currency at the end of 1997, it wanted to continue trading pretty much as usual, with 1:1 exchange parity. But by then, there were enough people inside the Ethiopian government who had become increasingly concerned about the whole arrangement with Eritrea, and who now felt otherwise. The opposition against Eritrea had grown.

Then, suddenly, the issue of a small border town called Badme took front and center stage. The Eritrean strongman, Isaias Afwerki, knowing that he had about 4:1 military advantage, saw little downside to playing hardball tactics in fulfilling his objectives, including conducting cross-border military operations, which ultimately led to a two-year war between the two countries.

The bloody war with Eritrea resulted in tens of thousands of people dead on both sides. Billions’ worth of properties was destroyed. The economies of both countries were at a standstill for two years and beyond. And although Ethiopia came out militarily victorious in that conflict, this military victory turned out to be anything but a victory for Ethiopia. After his major defense lines were decisively destroyed, Isaias Afwerki called the United Nations, uncharacteristically pleading for peace after having rebuffed all peace offers for nearly two years. By many accounts, Ethiopia was in a position to deal his regime a serious blow, perhaps even a fatal one. He didn’t have to worry much longer, however; soon after, Meles Zenawi had also called Ethiopian forces to stop all operations.

To add insult to injury, in the arbitration that followed, Ethiopia was ill-represented, per documents disclosed later by the Hague Boundary Commission. Following the ruling, Meles Zenawi and his ministers quickly declared victory (fraudulently), sending millions of Ethiopians into days of celebrations. In fact, Ethiopia had lost. Keen Ethiopian observers – especially those in the diaspora – were enraged by both the conduct of the war and its conclusions. (President Isaias Afwerki lived for another day, after causing some 80,000 citizens’ deaths on both sides – only to resurrect himself two decades later as a peacemaker and a key ally of a new Ethiopian Prime Minister and, in a great irony, to receive a heroes’ welcome in Addis Ababa.) Thus ended a troubling period in Ethiopian history, with Meles Zenawi coming out unscathed – in fact, stronger – despite what he did and did not do. Ethiopians are still having difficulty calling his conduct up to this point by its right name: treasonous.

The period from 2000-2015 was a period of rapid economic development and relative peace, but it was also a period of increasingly authoritarian rule. On the economic front, the country saw rapid expansion. According to World Bank data, the economy grew by an average of 9% during that period; and by double-digits in ten of them. The GDP PPP grew from $32.73 Billion USD to $163.53 Billion USD, and the GDP per capita PPP rose from $621 USD to $1,518 USD. People may dispute the exact magnitude of this growth, the causes behind it, or its uniformity across the country, but it was a remarkable growth, nevertheless. With some exceptions, this period was also a fairly peaceful period in Ethiopian history. There were several instances of unrest and/or clashes, but certainly nothing like the chaos we see today. This period also saw the nation playing international roles beyond its borders as well as initiating audacious projects such as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

On the political front, the period from 2000-2015 was a time of increasingly authoritarian rule. Elections became formalities, more so than in the beginning. The system – which was designed so that the Ethiopian majority could not win – guaranteed almost all of the seats in the Ethiopian parliament to the ruling party. With the exception of the 2005 elections, when the opposition won a significant portion of seats in parliament and in the Addis Ababa city administration (but were later denied), the government retained very high majorities in parliament. For example, the EPRDF (and its allies) won all but 12 seats in 2000; all but one seat in 2010; and all seats in 2015. In the early 2010s, the EPRDF felt invincible. Deluded by power, it saw it’s 100% wins in parliament not in shame, but with pride, and as an affirmation of ‘love’ from the Ethiopian people.

This period was also an increasingly challenging time for Ethiopian opposition politicians and journalists. Many went in and out of jail, for no reason other than mildly-stated views. Many were forced into exile. Whereas much of this history is well-documented, what is less appreciated is the economic and social penalties that some Ethiopians paid during this period. Holding different views than the government also brought high social costs along with it. At one point, the label “opposition” earned one pariah status and persona non-grata in the society at large. One Tigrayan opposition figure said: “Even our kids could not get someone to marry.” Businesses shied away from hiring or doing business with those who were perceived to be opposing the government, for fear of being labeled as opposition themselves. Some were economically ruined as a result and gave up politics for good. Many stayed dormant, only to resurrect themselves years later.

Following the sudden death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi in 2012, the ruling coalition party EPRDF, which had been built by him and for him (as one said), was never the same. After holding one of the greatest funerals that the country has ever seen, and with an outpouring of grief fitting only to a beloved king, the ruling party was leaderless. Under Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn as its head, the party began to fragment from the inside, while facing challenges from the outside. His TPLF minions went on to wallow for a few years after vowing to take his vision to greater heights, not knowing how the state was crafted and sustained, and always believing in ‘Revolutionary Democracy’ and the ‘constitution’ as the basis of their success and their savior – to no avail. Soon, they were all gone, unceremoniously, even the generals who once thought of themselves as some of the greatest warriors who had ever lived.

The period of 2015–2017 was a period of fractious authority, with Hailemariam Desalegn as its head. The country saw demonstration after demonstration, especially in the largest two states of Ethiopia, Oromia, and Amhara. By that point, the Ethiopian people had had enough. The EPRDF was invincible no longer. That led to the resignation of Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn, and the rise of Abiy Ahmed as Prime Minister in April 2018.

The Current Landscape

After all the previous letdown, the Ethiopian people were longing for a historic figure to rescue them from despair and misery – someone who would bring them unity and glory once again. And they saw one in Abiy Ahmed. Initially, Abiy Ahmed delivered, with soaring speeches to the delight of millions of Ethiopians. He spoke of love, forgiveness, and unity (Medemer). The land was awash with Abiymania. No single leader in modern Ethiopian history was received with so much adulation, praise, and open arms than Abiy Ahmed was. Abiy Ahmed stickers began gracing cars, windows, and walls, posted by the people, spontaneously, and not by the government. Even the highly critical diaspora community was not immune to this phenomenon. It came out in droves to cheer the young prime minister, and for a while, it seemed that Ethiopia had finally had its leader, it’s Nelson Mandela.

The euphoria did not last long, however. Soon, differences started appearing between talks and deeds and gaining steam in the months that followed. As the dead were piling and the displaced were heading to makeshift camps in great numbers, Ethiopians became increasingly unsure whether to believe the hearts he had once touched or their eyes and ears.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed did not change his messages for the most part. But that didn’t matter. People couldn’t help but see the reality, and it wasn’t pretty. The lop-sided grab of federal positions by one ethnicity; the deteriorating law and order situation; the mass displacements by the millions; the selective justice which favored one group over the other; and the long silences which followed tragic events all did not sit well with many Ethiopians. The Ethiopian people were devastated, yet again.

Numerous initiatives were launched, which began and ended with just announcements. The ministries, commissions, and appointments that were announced at a dizzying pace – all meant to correct previous wrongs – did not turn out to be as people had hoped they would be. The new ministry of peace presided over conflicts and large-scale displacements. The independent broadcasting commission was neither independent nor broadcasting. The reconciliation and boundary and identity commissions never lived up to their names. The new prosecution and security chiefs appointed came only to disclose – and not change – previous injustice (in which they were also part of). The Prime Minister’s press office was completely remade in bright colors, but that did not bring about the desired outcome: transparency.

Things only got worse from there. The Prime Minister began giving speeches at odds with one another, depending on the audience. Some of it was there from the beginning as well, but things are getting starker as we write. For example, his speech earlier this year in Bale, Oromia, which was meant to appeal to the base of human instinct – hate – was highly divisive and low, even for regionalist Ethiopian politicians, let alone for someone who just received a Nobel Peace Prize only a few months prior.

People are now questioning whether Abiy is the one to get them out of this plight. Others are going a bit further. They are convinced that much of this was all a grand deception against the Ethiopian people only to secure power. And although some are still hopeful and are wishing for the best, many now fear the worst. The prospect of the entire situation going into another autocratic rule or growing out of control and leading to anarchy and lawlessness is in everyone’s mind.

Compounding the problem, there are no regional leaders with the stature and foresight to help improve or stabilize the situation. Many of them seem to be preoccupied with protecting what is left of their own personal power while the country is going downhill. Instead of making a concerted effort to strengthen their governments, both central and local, they have instead been fighting over minutiae, sometimes on baseless issues. Some have even succumbed to extremist ideologies, just to gain local support – no matter the cost to the country at large. In the process, they have managed to make a once-peaceful people resentful against one another. As a result, some regions now have an unresolved identity and boundary issues, which are due for escalation at any time.

A significant portion of the lawlessness in Ethiopia centers in and around Oromia state. This is partly because of its size – about 35% of the Ethiopian population – and partly due to the local political situation there. Oromia is home to various groups, including armed groups, which are playing varying degrees of influence at the national and local levels. The defunct Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), now part of the governing Prosperity Party (PP), is from Oromia. The OLF, both its civil and armed wings, the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC), and the Oromo National Party are also from Oromia. Additionally, there are different personalities who are unaccountable to no one, but who have followers all of their own. Completely oblivious to the great fortune that came their way, these Oromo groups are playing both sides of the ruling divide to maximize power – unwisely. Almost all these groups have a strong regionalist bent. Notable tragedies that happened in Oromia were downplayed or even suppressed, such as the abductions of more than a dozen girls in Oromia last year. To our knowledge, none of these groups came out to condemn such acts. All of this makes the situation in Oromia multidimensional, complex, and extremely worrying to Ethiopian unity and stability. It is worrying because these Oromo groups have a stronghold on Ethiopian national politics today. Anything good and bad that happens there is likely to also be reflected on the national stage, including inside the military-security establishment of Ethiopia – the one institution that Ethiopia can ill-afford to lose. There are also boundary and identity claims emanating from Oromia, such as ownership claims over Addis Ababa, and the various disputes it has with almost all its neighboring states.

In the north, the TPLF is threatening more autonomy, if not secession, if it does not get its way. Despite numerous opportunities that came its way to rehabilitate itself on the national stage, the TPLF sadly seems to have chosen the role of a spoiler rather than that of a builder. The TPLF has been whipping up fear and resentment amongst the Tigrayan people, over the conditions that it created in the first place. The people who have been on the receiving end of historic liabilities are now being asked, once again, for a fresh allegiance – and this time, for the great leap to nowhere. New promises are being made, despite the unfulfilled promises of the last 45 years. The very same people who have seen the least amount of freedom in the last 30 years are now heading into an even more authoritarian rule as we write these words, having been warned in no uncertain terms that “you are with us or against us.” It must be noted that, after all the sacrifices, the Tigrayan people are still waiting for the chance to speak their conscience freely and elect their own representatives to any office. Ruled by the same people, the average 50-year-old Tigrayan has never been able to exercise that right in their entire life. If that is liberation, then we don’t know what servitude means. Now, like in other places, local military build-up continues unabated, with slogans thrown around only fitting in pre-war times. What is truly stunning, however, is how little the TPLF has tried to mend relations with the Amhara people, given the enormous significance of that relation to both states, as well as to Ethiopia itself. Tensions with Amhara state have been left to simmer for so long, due to the arrogance and ignorance of both state leaders. Now, these two northern states consider Eritrea more of a friend than they do each other.

During the initial stages of EPRDF rule, if there was one ethnic group inside Ethiopia that was more unhappy with ethnic politics, it was arguably the Amhara. By saying this, we do not mean that this group wholly owns that cause or thought. We are just talking about the relative magnitude here, in an otherwise distributed resistance across Ethiopia. Many Amhara never seemed to like the very idea of division along ethnic or linguistic lines. Some even detested having the label “Amhara” on their state, for a very long time. Detractors saw that stand as a ploy by the Amhara to renew dominion over others, often labeling them as “chauvinistic”. All-Ethiopian-minded elements had hoped that Ethiopia’s second-largest ethnic group would at last play a moderating influence over the regionalist euphoria going on elsewhere. Years later, however, the state would begin to succumb to the regionalist sentiment which had swept the country. After years of hesitation, they had their moment and joined the fray. With the creation of groups like NaMA (National Movement of Amhara), the Amharas declared that they would no longer sit by the wayside while others were out advancing their own interests – thereby signaling that the last domino had fallen. Now, NaMA and ADP, the ruling regional party, are closer in outlook than they may appear on the surface. In organizational strength, however, the ADP group is a shadow of its former self, with some questioning whether there is anything left there at all. As in Tigray and elsewhere, local military buildup continues unabated in the region, which at some point went as far as killing its own leadership – a murky development that has yet to be fully explained.

In Southern Ethiopia, a lot has happened over the last two years. The region saw hundreds of thousands of its people dislocated due to ethnic violence. Many died; many lost their homes and properties, and many became victims of physical and/or sexual violence. What is striking, though, is that a lot of it happened without much international notice. The ruling group, formerly Southern Ethiopia People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM), now part of PP, is almost non-existent, weakened by a series of divisions from within, which came about partly due to further ethnicization of the south, and partly due to coordinated Oromo nationalist influence. After some campaign, the Sidama secured a referendum for statehood and became a state. Others hope to follow suit, such as the Wolaita and 9 others of the 13 zones which make up the SNNPR. Should a few of these demands go through, it will lead to the eventual dissolution of the southern state. It is unknown what this will mean to the governance and unity of the country. It is also unknown what roles these new leaders mushrooming in the south will play in Ethiopian politics.  Some are expected to align themselves with regional forces (primarily from neighboring Oromia), their mentors and protectors.

In the rest of Ethiopia, we are seeing the on-and-off border clashes (e.g. Somali and Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz, and Oromia), ethnic clashes (e.g. Southern Ethiopia and Oromia), and religious clashes (e.g. Somali, Dire Dawa, Harari, and Oromia). But overall, some of the outlying areas of Ethiopia seem to have been relatively peaceful when compared to the center – and especially compared to Oromia. But they, too, have all the elements needed for unrest, should the turmoil continue in the bigger states such as Oromia.

The deteriorating economic situation is of great concern. Between 2017 and 2019, the Foreign Direct Investment in Ethiopia fell by more than 35%. Export revenue fell from $5.5 Billion USD in 2015 to about $2.67 Billion USD in 2019 – a drop of more than 50%. This is before the reduced mobility due to security concerns nationwide and, more importantly, the outbreak of the Coronavirus this year. Both are expected to accelerate that decline further. If things continue as they are, the country may go into economic contraction in the not-too-distant future, which will make the unemployment situation far worse than it was a year ago. And if the central government continues to weaken, we fear more troubles ahead on multiple fronts. Instability amplified by a weak economy can combine to form a deadly mix that the country may not easily come out from. For example, if inflation skyrockets, perhaps due to poor economy-driven loose central control, this will make the bad situation extraordinarily difficult. Among other things, it will mean a large-scale wealth transfer from the poor and the middle class into the well-to-do, and the speculators and outlaws, leaving millions more in poverty. If the situation goes further into anarchy, we may even enter hitherto uncharted territory. As we will discuss later, during the height of anarchy in Somalia, the warlords were printing money in billions, rendering the Somalia shilling worthless. We fear that such a scenario, however implausible at this current juncture, could unfold here if lawless forces inside Ethiopia get the upper hand.

Finally, we also worry about foreign influence in Ethiopian affairs. We know that many of the current players in Ethiopian politics have come from bases in Eritrea. We also know that the Ethiopian leader himself has an unusually close, yet unknown, relationship with Asmara. The issue here is not the resumptions of relations between the two countries. That is a welcome development for both Ethiopia and for Eritrea, two of the closest people on the African continent. Peace between them is also great for the region, and today’s international order also demands it. What worries us is the risk that comes with weak leaders in Ethiopia. Having witnessed numerous deals that the public knows little about, we have reason for concern. In fact, there are already disturbing signs coming out of Eritrea as we write. Earlier this year, President Isaias Afwerki declared, ominously, that he will not sit by idly in Ethiopian affairs, as Ethiopia is too important for Eritrea and the region. The Eritrean President made this statement following PM Abiy visit to Asmara. It will be naïve to think that such statements were thrown around without some measure already in place. By now, we should be too familiar with what happened in the 1990s. It should not be repeated.

Lessons from History

The people of Libya, Syria, and Somalia are not longing for democracy and fairytale governments, these days. If there is one thing that they all want desperately, it is a stable government that guarantees the unity of their respective countries and maintains the rule of law – whatever that rule of law is. After years of uncertainty in their daily lives – the insecurity, abductions, rapes, and killings – they are conditioned to think far more modestly than they did several years ago.

Libya is now a war theatre for various international forces and mercenaries. Russia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Egypt, and other African countries are involved, some with boots on the ground. These forces are not there to liberate the Libyan people, but to exploit them for years to come. Many Libyans now question whether they made a mistake in getting rid of Muammar Gaddafi – the autocratic leader who once ruled them with an iron fist, running a vast network of prison cells and assassins, with wanton abuse of power, corruption, and nepotism.

In Syria, the world has seen one of the worst cruelties ever witnessed in human history. What originally started as a peaceful protest campaign against the minority regime of the Assad family, which ruled Syria since 1971, soon descended into armed conflict and chaos. The country saw brutality on a historic scale, from chemical weapons use to beheadings, to medieval torture. A country of 21 million in 2010, now 18 million, went through a period of anarchy and lawlessness that no one could have even imagined just a decade ago. Various pockets of the population suddenly found themselves at the mercy of local warlords who had their soldiers do pretty much whatever they wanted, including killings, extortions, conscriptions, rapes and forced marriages. Syria is still going through bloodshed but is also under foreign influence, primarily Russia, Iran, and Turkey. Those who managed to survive, mostly women, are facing incredible economic and social challenges, including finding men to marry – because so many men have died or fled the country. More than 5 million Syrians are now scattered around the world.

Somalia is going through a decades-long, painstaking process of putting the country back together. Things are not easy, as Somalians are finding out, after decades of anarchy with hundreds of militia groups roaming the country, with tolls, extortions, abductions, rapes, crooks, and warlords printing money in the billions and rendering the Somalia shilling worthless. Even with help from numerous nations – and billions of dollars in assistance each year – things are moving at snail’s pace. By the time the country is up on its feet, if that ever happens at all, a full generation will have passed without ever knowing a normal state.

These countries, and others like them, share three common factors: 1. All these countries were ruled by autocratic governments prior to the chaos; 2. There was an absence of developed institutions, like good government institutions, credible opposition, functioning media and civil societies; and 3. they had significant ethnic divisions. We fear that Ethiopia also has all three of these elements at play, and we would like to caution Ethiopians and friends of Ethiopia of the potential perils which lie ahead.

Ethiopia should not travel that very same path, unknowingly, into a far more tragic situation given its huge population, which is nearly 9% of the entire African population. We can’t see the future, but even if there is a small chance of going into such a situation, Ethiopian citizens are well-advised to do all that they can to eliminate that eventuality. Whereas fighting for democracy, justice, equality, and fairness are all noble causes and should be fully supported, we believe that Ethiopians must also separate the small issues from the big ones. If the price for perfect justice, democracy, and settling of old grievances (big and small) is the loss of a unified and strong Ethiopia, then that price is not worth paying. Ethiopians do not have to look back in time and wish they had done more to save their country – just as the people next door are doing right now.

Ethiopians should not have to go through decades of devastation at home, forcing their young men and women to seek refuge around the world yet again. Ethiopia should not become the domain of other countries – like Libya, Somalia, Syria, and Yemen are, right now. Ethiopia should not fail its neighbors, after having served as the anchor of stability for so long in an otherwise troubled region. Ethiopia should not fail the African continent that once saw it as the light of freedom and bestowed upon it the highest honor it could, the seat of the African Union. The descent into anarchy will certainly mean the loss of the African Union at some point and the failure Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam project which once instilled so much pride across all of Ethiopia.

Potential Outcomes

We do not really know what comes next for Ethiopia. But we know a great many Ethiopians are worried about their country right now. Churches and mosques have been holding daily prayers for peace and stability. Hundreds of public forums have been held throughout the country over the past two years to discuss issues around unity and stability. So far, however, we are nowhere near normalcy. The country is still going from one kind of crisis to another, and many are now asking: Will this situation get out of hand at some point? Or, have we crossed that threshold already? Or, will good finally prevail and things get back to normal? There are different lines of thought at this moment. Some feel that all will be well in the end and that we will back to normal. Others claim that we have already failed. And still, others think in-between. We don’t really know. What we do know is that the magnitude of risk in front of us is unacceptably high and something must be done by all concerned Ethiopians.

Looking forward, there are at least five potential scenarios ahead of us. These scenarios are by no means the only outcomes that we can think of.  We are presenting a few of them here. This is not to forecast the future, but to show our fellow Ethiopians what can possibly happen. Out of the five potential scenarios listed below, we believe only one of them, the first, should be the preferred outcome for all Ethiopians.

1. National Unity – Here, the leaders in Addis Ababa get the foresight to call a national dialogue amongst (almost) all Ethiopian parties and distinguished personalities, with the intent to form a national unity government. This should normally happen before the elections, now that the virus pandemic has altered the timing. The pandemic makes the need for such a government even more compelling. For this scenario to materialize, however, those in power will have to realize the enormity of the risk that the country faces at this moment. There must also be a sense of willingness on all sides to forget past differences and enter a new beginning. This will also require more equitable distribution of federal power and respect for one another, going forward. This may also need mediation and considerable pressure from foreign governments and partners.
2. Dominant Center – Here, the ruling party drives to unite the country by coercive means (using all instruments at its disposal, including economic pressure and force). For this to happen, the ruling party will have to muster a considerable military power and/or ruling skills to have all regions align to its will. In this scenario, there is a potential for considerable bloodshed, as well as foreign interference. Further, the government that emerges out of this scenario will likely be as autocratic (and corrupt) as any government in the last few decades has been, if not more.
3. Weak Center – In this scenario, the ruling party is unable (or unwilling) to unify all regions in one of the two ways listed above. As a result, some regions become semi-independent, including Tigray, but possibly others. In this scenario, the simmering tensions between some states transforming into regional wars cannot be excluded. The central government, being weak, can prove to be highly dysfunctional in the management of the country’s affairs. Foreign influence in Ethiopian affairs becomes much more likely.
4. Decentralization – The current Ethiopian rulers are unable (or unwilling) to work towards a united Ethiopia and focus more on regional objectives. In this scenario, the Oromos drive towards maximizing power and privilege, while disregarding others. In turn, this will force other regions, including the Amhara, to fend for themselves, leading to a much more decentralized country. Here, the chance for several regional wars to settle border and identity disputes and anarchy is considerable.
5. Coalition Rule – Although slim, there is also a chance that, following the upcoming elections, an assortment of regional parties can form a ruling coalition. In order for this to happen, however, a lot of unlikely events will first need to take place: first, Ethiopia holds a relatively free election; second, the PP fails to win majorities in Oromia, Amhara, and Southern Ethiopia; third, the PP concedes the loss and allows other parties to form a government; and fourth, the numerous parties manage to agree upon a common platform, as well as a leader, to form a government. If, despite these long odds, a coalition government forms, it is unclear how it will maintain unity and power for very long, as well as ensure law and order across the country, without having a reliable military-security apparatus of its own. This can be a short-lived government and, perhaps, a step towards the outcome of scenario 4 discussed above.

Of course, none of these scenarios may happen, or something in-between may materialize. However, our message here is that we can end up in one of several undesirable outcomes unless we navigate events carefully. That is the main message here. We believe Ethiopians should demand an outcome along the lines of the first one discussed above – a national unity government – as should all foreign partners, diplomats, and friends of Ethiopia, who must be as concerned as we are. There – If there is one thing we can do right now, collectively, to stop the slide into more autocracy or anarchy, this will be it. We believe this may require an international mediation, as has been done successfully in many countries, including our neighbor Sudan, ironically with our help. As part of the settlement, we also believe that all state militias that have mushroomed over the last two years be disbanded. The new government must also guarantee the right of all Ethiopians to move freely and live and do business throughout Ethiopia.

The formation of a national unity government will likely achieve at least three objectives: 1. It will bring peace and stability to the country, which is crucial especially as we enter a more difficult economic time due to the global pandemic; 2. It will make the country less susceptible to foreign influence and threat; and 3. It will create a better ground for new political forces and civil societies to flourish, creating a more conducive environment for further democratization.

It must be stressed here that the postponement of the upcoming elections due to the virus pandemic is an additional reason – not the main one – that makes the need for a national unity government even more compelling. A government that cannot maintain the rule of law and is still struggling to pull the country together has little rationale to continue to rule beyond its term under the guise of the state of emergency. And let’s not forget this government is a continuation of the EPRDF government that ruled Ethiopia for three decades, since May 1991.

Ultimately, to us Ethiopians, everything is in our hands. We need to act to shape our destiny. And that is what we will discuss in Part II of this document. There, we discuss in some depth what we Ethiopians should do to reverse decades-long of slide into division and disunity. We articulate that the only way to come out of this period in our history is for Ethiopians at home and abroad to organize and run a determined but peaceful civil movement under a few core and structural issues to promote unity, stability, the rule of law, and basic freedom in Ethiopia. It can be done. Stay tuned and stay safe.

God Bless Ethiopia!

Ethiopia United International

Email: contact@EthiopiaUnited.org

The post Ethiopia’s Long Slide into Crisis: What Should be Done to Stop It (Part I) appeared first on Satenaw Ethiopian News/Breaking News / Your right to know!.

Insufficient water for washing is likely to worsen the coronavirus in the poorest nations. There’s a better way forward.

BY ALAN NICOL

MAY 12, 2020

Days after he shared images of municipal workers disinfecting the streets of Addis Ababa with high-powered hoses, Mayor Takele Uma Banti found himself struggling to explain a 72-hour water shortage.

For the 4.8 million residents of Ethiopia’s capital city, interruptions to the water supply are nothing new. But in the grip of a pandemic, the latest disruption threw into sharp relief the inequality created by limited and unpredictable access to clean water. Without a treatment or a vaccine, the primary advice to prevent the spread of the coronavirus is regular hand-washing and good hygiene. But this is out of reach for millions of Ethiopians living without sustainable access to clean water, laying bare the critical link between water and public health.

Water crises were ranked above both infectious diseases and food crises in the World Economic Forum’s latest Global Risks Report. This year, the world is likely to see all three.

Inequality in water access worldwide will shape the course of the pandemic; it must also be a priority in post-coronavirus economic reconstruction.In the immediate term, it is essential that clean water reaches as many people as possible to enable them to take the basic precautions needed to reduce the risk of infection from the coronavirus. Improving access to water, sanitation, and hygiene systems could bring down the overall global disease burden by 9 percent and reduce the number of deaths to disease by more than 6 percent. This cannot be achieved when more than 840 million people worldwide currently lack basic supply. In the Arab region alone, for example, more than 74 million people are at greater risk of contracting COVID-19 because they lack the facilities to properly wash their hands. Inequality in water access worldwide will shape the course of the pandemic; it must also be a priority in post-coronavirus economic reconstruction.

In Ethiopia, the International Water Management Institute has mobilized trained members of the public, known as parahydrologists, to collect data on household knowledge of the coronavirus and assess how the current access and use of water affects disease mitigation measures. This information will help scientists and public agencies identify, among other things, more effective ways of implementing mitigation measures such as social distancing. This might include finding alternatives to communal water points, where people from several households might gather at the same time and risk spreading the virus.

 

The post The Pandemic Is Laying Bare a Global Water Crisis appeared first on Satenaw Ethiopian News/Breaking News / Your right to know!.

The post Ethiopian Forces in Somalia Shot Down Kenyan Plane appeared first on Satenaw Ethiopian News/Breaking News / Your right to know!.

By The Associated Press

CAIRO (AP) — Sudan is pushing Ethiopia to resume stalled U.S.-brokered negotiations over its disputed $4.6 billion dam on the Nile that officials say will start filling in July.

In a letter to his Ethiopian counterpart Tuesday, Sudanese Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok stressed the need to reach agreement among Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia before the mega-project’s completion, according to Sudan’s state-run news agency. Ethiopia has pledged to start filling the reservoir during the summer wet season.

The dispute over what will be Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam pits Ethiopia’s desire to pull millions out of poverty against Egypt’s concerns over its critical water supply.

Egyptian officials fear that the dam, if filled too quickly, will constrict its main source of freshwater, already under strain from climate change and rapid population growth. Ethiopia is banking on the Grand Renaissance Dam to provide much-needed electricity and income for development.

Bellicose rhetoric, including the Ethiopian prime minister’s warnings of possible military action last year, have turned the dam into an explosive issue.

Hamdok said Tuesday that he would refuse to sign a “partial agreement” for the dam’s filling due to the absence of coordinated planning and outstanding “technical and legal issues” dealing with the dam’s “environmental and social impacts.”

He urged the parties to resume talks immediately, even if via video conference because of the coronavirus pandemic. Sudan has long been caught between Egypt and Ethiopia, as each tries to persuade the fledgling civilian government to take its side.

Negotiations, deadlocked for years, received a jolt last fall when the U.S. and World Bank intervened. The White House had pushed for an agreement by the end of February. While Egypt inked the draft agreement, Ethiopia skipped out on the last round of negotiations, stirring tension and throwing a settlement into doubt. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo cautioned that months of hard work remain.

Last week, in Egypt’s latest bid to gain support from the international community, Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said he sent a letter to the U.N. Security Council about the dam, raising alarm about Ethiopia’s unilateral moves. He asked that Ethiopia reconsider its rejection of the latest deal for the sake of “security and stability in the region.”

The post Sudan pushes Ethiopia to resume stalled talks over Nile dam appeared first on Satenaw Ethiopian News/Breaking News / Your right to know!.

‘Arbitrary arrests of people for not wearing masks needless,’ says Ethiopian Human Rights Commission

The post Ethiopia: Over 1,300 held for going out without masks appeared first on Satenaw Ethiopian News/Breaking News / Your right to know!.

BILEH JELAN @BILEHJELAN  &ZECHARIAS ZELALEM @ZEKUZELALEM

Addis Abeba, May 14/2020 – Despite denial from Ethiopia’s consulate in Beirut, Lebanon that there were no Ethiopians who tested positive for COVID-19, data posted on the official website of the Lebanese Ministry of Health currently lists that out of a total of 886 confirmed cases nationwide, eight of them are Ethiopian nationals.

Just under 7% of total cases in Lebanon are foreign nationals. The website, designated solely for accumulating data on the outbreak in Lebanon, is backed up with an assortment of graphs and charts indicating Lebanon’s cases by district, age and nationality. The website also lists Ethiopians as currently being the most pandemic afflicted among foreign nationals in Lebanon.

This is in sharp contrast with the statements from Ethiopia’s top diplomat in Lebanon, Consul Aklilu Tatere Wube, who has been queried on the topic of the wellbeing of the large Ethiopian community in Lebanon in recent days. In interviews given to the Voice of America on Friday May 08, and to the BBC on May 13, Consul Aklilu stated that there were no confirmed COVID -19 cases among Ethiopians in Lebanon.

“Thank God not a single one of our citizens has died or has been infected,” Consul Aklilu told the VOA’s Amharic language service. “I’m in daily contact with the Lebanese government and Health Ministry on WhatsApp. We receive updates and in case anything happens, we have hotline numbers and have been notified of where victims are to be treated.”

But the top diplomat’s statement appears to be misleading, according to the latest data published on the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health’s coronavirus observatory webpage. This screengrab contains updated data in Arabic and remains current as of the publishing of this news. The data lists six Palestinians and four Syrians among the confirmed cases in Lebanon, alongside the eight Ethiopians.

Since the pandemic and Lebanon’s economic meltdown which preceded the country’s outbreak by about five months, Ethiopians in the country, the near entirety of whom are women working as domestic workers, have suffered greatly. Countless have been laid off and with foreign currency being scarce and the local Lebanese pound currency losing over half of its value in recent months. Many of those working as live-in maids, are being forced to work without salaries. Unemployed domestic workers on their own risk going hungry or being evicted from their homes, unable to pay the rent.

Despite denying that that there are Ethiopians who contracted the deadly virus, Consul Aklilu Tatere Wube admits that Ethiopians in Lebanon will face countless challenges ahead and stated that his office was doing what it could to ease things for its most vulnerable citizens. But he was adamant in his conversation with the BBC’s Amharic that any reports of Ethiopian cases of coronavirus were just rumors. “We heard a report that there had been two Ethiopians who caught the virus,” Ethiopia’s de facto ambassador to Lebanon said, “however, after we mobilized and took action to verify facts, we found out that the report was false.”

However the publicly available data disproves the Consul. The archived versions of the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health’s pandemic watch website reveal that Lebanon had confirmed two Ethiopian citizens as having caught the virus as far back as March 26^th. The consulate’s leading diplomat claim that he receives regular notices from Lebanese authorities is impossible to ascertain, but his statement that no Ethiopian residents in Lebanon have caught the virus is untrue.

The first known cases of Ethiopian citizens who caught the coronavirus were confirmed sometime between March 23^rd and March 26^th, over a month and a half ago, facts that call the Consul’s statement in to question on whether his office is making the effort he claims it is.

Consul Aklilu is also assertive that for undocumented Ethiopian migrants who would seek treatment after developing the symptoms, his office was ready to prepare emergency documentation that would enable them to seek treatment. Lebanese hospitals had been reported as refusing to accommodate patients without residency papers. Many Ethiopian domestic workers have their passports taken away by abusive employers, something enabled by that country’s maintaining of the kafala system.

However, undocumented Ethiopians told Al Jazeera that no such services were offered to them. In a recent report, Ethiopian women in Lebanon described being rejected at hospitals and having nowhere else to turn to. The Ethiopian consulate in Beirut announced on March 30^th that it had closed its doors and stopped offering services in adherence with the Lebanese government’s nationwide lockdown. It’s unclear how the Ethiopians in Lebanon would have been able to access the assistance the consulate claims to have provided.

With thousands of Ethiopians in Lebanon undocumented and thus ineligible for treatment at most hospitals, the likelihood is that publicly available data on confirmed Ethiopian cases, is not exhaustive. As for the known eight cases, there doesn’t appear to be any data describing their current status.

After a recent loosening of restrictions in Lebanon led to a spike in COVID-19 cases, the Lebanese government announced it would reinstate a nationwide lockdown that would last until the coming May 18. The country’s Prime Minister Hassan Diab blames the upsurge on “the negligence of citizens.”

For Ethiopians, this means more hardships, according to one woman who asked not to be named. A resident of Beirut and undocumented for the last five years, she says that Lebanon’s shops have run out of some food items and what is available is almost double the cost.“I don’t know how much longer I can endure this. If even Europe couldn’t stop the virus, we are in real trouble here in Lebanon,” she told Addis Standard. AS

The post DESPITE DENIAL BY ETHIOPIA’S CONSUL, NUMBER OF CORONAVIRUS CASES AMONG ETHIOPIANS IN LEBANON REACHES EIGHT appeared first on Satenaw Ethiopian News/Breaking News / Your right to know!.

The post Ethiopian migrants head home after brush with death in Mozambique appeared first on Satenaw Ethiopian News/Breaking News / Your right to know!.

By Yonas Abiye

In the face of mounting challenges COVID-19 has caused which includes forcing the nation to postpone its upcoming national elections, uncertainty has taken center stage among the public as the federal government and Tigray’s ruling party, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), are contradicting one another.

The post Federal gov’t, TPLF at an impasse over elections appeared first on Satenaw Ethiopian News/Breaking News / Your right to know!.

ENA Addis Abeba May 18/2020 Ethiopia has reported the highest number of coronavirs positive cases in a single day since the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic.

In its daily update on new infections, the Ministry of Health announced on Monday that 35 new coronavirus cases were identified from the 1,775 individuals tested over the past 24 hours.

According to the ministry, the new daily high, exploding Ethiopia’s total tally of infections to 352.

The 18 are females and 17 are males all aged between15-80 years, it was indicated.

Out of the total cases, 29 were reported in the capital Addis Ababa, one in Oromia, 4 in Somali and one in Amhara Regional States.

Six patients have a recent travel history while 24 of them have direct contacts with confirmed cases, and the other five cases have neither contacts with confirmed cases nor any travel history.

In the meantime, three patients have fully recovered from the virus, bringing the total recoveries to 116.

According to the ministry, there are currently 229 patients in COVID-19 treatment centers across the country, with no patient in intensive care unit.

So far a total of 59,029 people are tested for COVID-19 in Ethiopia since the first case was reported on March 13, 2020.

The post Ethiopia Reports a Record Increase in Positive Coronavirus Cases appeared first on Satenaw Ethiopian News/Breaking News / Your right to know!.

By Alemayehu G. Mariam

Special Author’s Note: In Part I of this commentary last week,  I examined Proclamation No. 3/2020 (“State of Emergency Proclamation Enacted to Counter and Control the Spread of COVID-19 and Mitigate Its Impact”) enacted to respond to the looming COVID-19 crisis in Ethiopia and determined it passed constitutional muster and scrutiny under international standards. That Proclamation is narrowly tailored, clearly written and carefully balances the interests of individual liberty with the necessity of safeguarding public health and safety.

In Part II, I shall argue the Ethiopian Government, having crafted a model health emergency legislation in Proclamation 3/2020, must now follow through by postponing and rescheduling the August 29, 2020 federal/regional parliamentary elections by exercising its constitutional authority, which includes, among others, declaring a state of emergency.

I was pleasantly surprised last week to learn the Ethiopian Parliament had decided to hear and consider a report from the Ethiopian National Election Board on the untenability of holding elections on August 29, 2020 given the COVID-19 crisis. Two weeks ago when I began drafting my commentaries on the necessity of taking “extraordinary constitutional measures” necessitated by the COVID-19 crisis, I had no idea the Ethiopian Parliament would take prompt action. I am glad Parliament decided to address the issue early on and provide ample time for public dialogue and discussion of available options. Indeed, I am pleased to see robust dialogue between the ruling Prosperity Party and opposition parties.  I am also impressed by the high quality of legal analysis and constitutional commentary. I am also amused by some of the dogmatic and uninformed public dialogue.

I have written these commentaries on the necessity of taking extraordinary constitutional measures in light of the COVID-19 crisis for three special reasons.  First, I aim to promote and support informed and critical constitutional discussion on urgent and emergent social, legal and political issues facing Ethiopian society.

Second, I aim to share my knowledge and expertise as a teacher and practitioner of constitutional law in America.

Third, I want to make sure the voices of diaspora Ethiopians are heard in the constitutional dialogue and debate currently taking place in Ethiopia. It must never be forgotten that many diaspora Ethiopians have fought relentlessly to bring democracy, the rule of law and protection of human rights in Ethiopia. My participation in the defense and promotion of human rights for nearly a decade and half in Ethiopia has been a labor of love. I want to make it perfectly clear that many diaspora Ethiopians have earned the right through blood, sweat and tears to have a say in the fate of our country. Let it never be forgotten that we were the voice of Ethiopia when Ethiopia had no voice– when Ethiopia was muzzled– for 27 years. Today, we want to make sure we are heard and our views taken into consideration in these trying times and as those doing the heavy lifting in Ethiopia make their decisions about the coming election and the democratic changes to follow.

It is in this spirit that I share my views in these commentaries.

Nota Bene: This commentary is admittedly very long. The headings are intended to capsulize the relevant subject matter and readers may read each section independently and follow my analysis and arguments. But I am not apologetic for the length of the commentary. The gravity of the constitutional issues demands a thorough analysis and incorporation of supporting evidence. Those who seek instant answers for the serious constitutional questions raised in a paragraph or two will be disappointed. Only those interested in an in-depth understanding of the issues will likely benefit from my commentaries. I am aware there are many interested individuals who would like to read my commentaries but are unable to do so because of linguistic challenges. I fervently hope someone, from among my readers, will be able to translate this series of commentaries into Amharic for the benefit of those who do not read English.

The abuse and misuse of extraordinary measures in the form of “state of emergency” declarations in Ethiopia

Historically, extraordinary measures have been taken in Ethiopia in the form of “state of emergency” declarations. Indeed, such measures have been synonymous with abuse of power, extrajudicial killings, mass arrests and incarcerations and generally massive human rights violations.

In November 1974, the so-called Derg military regime declared a state of emergency and imposed martial law in Ethiopia. Ad hoc military tribunals summarily executed former imperial government officials accused of corruption, maladministration and negligence in the country’s famine. The Derg launched a campaign of Red Terror killing and jailing hundreds of thousands of Ethiopians without due process of law. In the late 1980s, the Derg declared a state of emergency in the northern provinces of Ethiopia and imposed martial law resulting in massive human rights violations.

On May 15, 2005, following parliamentary election that day, Meles Zenawi, the late leader of the regime of the Tigrean People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in a nationally televised address declared a state of emergency by personal fiat (without constitutional authority) claiming he had to take action to “counter havoc and fear  created by opposition charges of abuses and a threat to reject the results.” Zenawi announced, “As of tomorrow, for the next one month no demonstrations of any sort will be allowed within the city and its environs. As peace should be respected … the government has decided to bring all the security forces, the police and the local militias, under one command accountable to the prime minister.” Zenawi immediately contradicted himself by stating, “We are not expecting any big danger, but as a government there is a role to play in looking after the peace and harmony of the people. This action is just simply a precaution to see that no one is endangered.” As a result of Zenawi’s state of emergency, nearly 800 persons were killed and over 30 thousand incarcerated. An Inquiry Commission created by Zenawi himself laid the blame entirely on Zenawi and his regime for excessive use of force.

I joined the Ethiopian human rights movement to vindicate the victims of the Meles Massacres of 2005.

On October 9, 2016, the government of the Tigrean People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) issued its “State of Emergency Command Post” Decree on the vague pretext that “the situation posed a threat against the people of the country.” That decree was issued in a futile attempt to brutally suppress popular opposition to TPLF ethnic oppression.

I resolutely opposed that emergency declaration: “The T-TPLF did not declare a state of emergency for Ethiopia. It declared an emergency S.O.S. for the “S.S. (Sinking Ship) T-TPLF”.

Since 2009, the TPLF regime, for all intents and purposes, has used its so-called anti-terrorism law (Proclamation No. 652/2009), to impose a de jure (by law) state of emergency. Under that “Proclamation”, the T-TPLF created a police state and imposed a reign of terror. Thousands were arbitrarily arrested, tortured and killed on an industrial scale.

When Erin Burnett of CNN visited Ethiopia in July 2012, she described what she saw in stark terms:

We saw what an African police state looked like when I was in Ethiopia last month… At the airport, it took an hour to clear customs – not because of lines, but because of checks and questioning. Officials tried multiple times to take us to government cars so they’d know where we went. They only relented after forcing us to leave hundreds of thousands of dollars of TV gear in the airport…”

On March 19, 2017, the TPLF government announced it had lifted three elements of the state of emergency having to do with arbitrary searches and searches and curfews.

On March 30, 2017, the TPLF government authorized  a four-month extension of the state of emergency absurdly arguing  “82 percent of Ethiopians want a partial or full continuation of the state of emergency.”  More than 25,000 people suspected of taking part in protests were detained under that state of emergency.

I resolutely opposed the extension of that state of emergency. I warned the TPLF they will never be able to contain the volcanic eruption of the people’s anger and frustration by declaring a command post government.

In June 2018, Prime Minster Abiy Ahmed permanently lifted the state of emergency and opened the political space for all contenders, including those declared terrorist and sentenced to death in absentia, to return to the country and help build a democratic governance process.

Let the facts speak out! Let us not lie to ourselves!

The history of state of emergency in Ethiopia over the past three decades has been a history of state terror on citizens.

Ethiopia has been under a de facto or de jure state of emergency since May 28, 1991, the date the TPLF rebels marched from the bush on the capital Addis Ababa until April 2018. That was the principal means the TPLF used to imposed its will on the people of Ethiopia.

The unfortunate fact is that civilian and military dictators in Africa have ruled by declaration of state of emergency for far too long.

In 2011, Tunisia declared state of emergency following unrest from economic issues leading to the Arab Spring.

Egypt was ruled under a permanent state of emergency for 32 years, indeed a military dictatorship, which granted security forces sweeping powers of arrest, detention and prosecution in special courts was in place until it presumably ended in 2012. It seems the permanent state of emergency continues in Egypt today as President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi managed to remain president for life, at least until 2030.

In 2013, Nigeria declared a state of emergency for the entire northeastern states of Borno, Yobe and Adamawa because of attacks by the terrorist group Boko Haram.

In 2016, Namibia declared last a state of emergency because of an ongoing drought.

In 2017, Zambia declared a state of emergency following a fire that destroyed country’s biggest market in the capital Lusaka.

In 2019, Sudanese president Al Bashir declared a one-year state of emergency and dissolved the country’s central and state governments and replaced them by military leaders. He was subsequently overthrown which declared a state of emergency.

In 2019, Sierra Leone declared a state of emergency over widespread occurrences of rape and sexual assault in that country.

Why I support a declaration of a state of emergency to postpone the August 2020 election

It is a fair question to ask why I would urge, not merely support, postponement and rescheduling of the August 2020 election by declaration of a state of emergency or other constitutional mechanisms given my history of opposition to such declarations.

First, COVID-19 has been a global game changer. The pandemic has rocked the global economic system to the core. Even the most advanced industrialized countries are unable to withstand the chaos and dislocation created by COVID-19. The world has been reduced to a global village and the fate of the villagers intertwined. Countries have sought to deal with the COVID-19 crisis by taking extraordinary measures. As I demonstrated in Part I of my commentary last week, the Ethiopian Government drafted and implemented  Proclamation No. 3/2020 (“State of Emergency Proclamation Enacted to Counter and Control the Spread of COVID-19 and Mitigate Its Impact”). I will not rehash those points here.

Second, as a die hard constitutionalist, I would like to see the Ethiopian Constitution serve as working, living and breathing instrument of government. Since its adoption in 1995, the Ethiopian Constitution has been abused and misused by the TPLF regime to practice “constitutional dictatorship” in the form of a state of emergency or command post government. The Constitution served and protected only the interests of the TPLF. For everyone else, the Constitution was not worth the paper on which it was written. The TPLF’s maxim was always,  “Justice for Just Us.”

While I believe that Constitution needs massive overhaul, the fact remains, to paraphrase a military metaphor of former U.S. Defense Secretary Don Rumsfeld, “You resolve a constitutional question you have, not by a constitution you might want or wish to have at a later time.” There are multiple answers in the Ethiopian Constitution to address the question at hand.

Third, the government of PM Abiy Ahmed has repeatedly declared its wish, desire and determination to hold free and fair elections on numerous occasions. That commitment is irrevocable come hell or high water. Indeed, to make that possible, from the very beginning the government has completely opened the political space allowing organizations and individuals previously declared “terrorists” and “criminals” to participate in a peaceful manner. The government has even tolerated, in the face of enormous public pressure, individuals and organizations that have openly and flagrantly flouted the law in the interest of social harmony. No government that intends to impose dictatorial rule would allow the opposition that is sworn to violence and force to participate in the democratic process. That gives me great confidence that postponement of the election for 6 months will not lead to abuses of power or violation of human rights.

Fourth and most importantly, the government of PM Abiy has been committed to the principles of the rule of law, inclusivity, due process, resolution of problems by dialogue in free and open forums and full accountability and transparency. Until substantial and credible evidence (not bellyaching, teeth gnashing, mudslinging, whining and finger pointing) to the contrary is shown, I shall grant the full benefit of the doubt to the government based on what it has done to date in protecting human rights, institutionalizing the rule of law and promoting free and fair elections.

Fifth, unlike Ethiopia, many governments have criminalized reporting on COVID-19. The Egyptian Government made reporting on COVID-19 inconsistent with the government narrative a crime. Amnesty International reported, “The Egyptian authorities have made it very clear that anyone who challenges the official narrative will be severely punished.” Other countries that have criminalized COVID-19 reporting under a state of emergency decree include Iran, China, Hungary and South Africa, among others. Rodrigo Duterte shut down Philippines’ largest television network because he did not like the way the station reported on COVID-19.

In contrast, in Ethiopia under Article 7 (2) of Proclamation 3/2020, compels the private media to report on COVID-19 and participate in public education programs aimed at mitigation. If the Ethiopian government was interested in abusing power under a state of emergency decree, Proclamation 3/2020 would have provided it its best pretext. But the Ethiopian government chose to fight the COVID-19 war with full accountability, transparency and media scrutiny. I am very much impressed by that commitment. But I hasten to add that the media bears a heavy responsibility in its role as “watch dog”. It must not be a patsy for purveyors of lies, fake news and disinformation.

Understanding the juridical fact of “state of emergency”

In my discussions with may Ethiopian scholars, activists and political leaders, I have concluded most of them are unaware of the juridical nature of a “state of emergency” or the declaratory legislative act that brings it into existence. Indeed, I am surprised that many confuse declaration of state of emergency with martial law. While a declaration of a state of emergency may be used to impose martial law, it is different in the fact that under martial law the military takes direct functions of ordinary civilian government instituting military administration as was the case during the Derg regime in Ethiopia.

The modern idea of “state of emergency” has roots in Roman antiquity in which a “Roman magistrate with extraordinary powers was appointed during an emergency”. Indeed, “in the fifth and fourth centuries, the dictatorship was also used to solve internal problems, e.g., to conduct difficult elections or solve a constitutional crisis.” At the onset of the “Reign of Terror” in 1793 in the French Revolution, Robespierre and the Committee for Public safety declared a state of emergency and arbitrarily jailed and executed their opponents. It is after the French Revolution that “state of emergency” regimes became common and widespread especially in the 20^th century.

There are two general perspectives on the legality of a “state of emergency”. One leading scholar on the subject argues declaration of state of emergency is a function of sovereignty. According to this view, “a polity must be entitled to decide whether to suspend the application of its law on the ground that the situation is abnormal.” The sovereign power may in its discretion bring about “a total suspension of the law and then to use extra-legal force to normalize the situation.” The competing legal/rule of law view argues legal norms, conditions and standards could be established for a declaration of a state of emergency with built-in safeguards to prevent abuse of power.

I do not regard the two views as mutually exclusive. I shall argue that a declaration of a state of emergency is inherently a sovereign act but is most effective when it is sanctioned and legitimized by constitutional or statutory authority. A government may declare a state of emergency when it determines the normal course and systems of governance are incapable of addressing an extraordinary occurrence. For instance, a government facing external aggression, imminent domestic insurrection, uncontrolled widespread civil unrest, natural disasters and epidemics does not necessarily obtain prior legislative approval before acting.

The scope of special emergency powers is determined by a given country’s constitution and   laws. Generally, a declaration of a state of emergency may restrict press freedom, prohibit public gatherings, grant security and military forces special powers of arrest and detention without due process of law, authorize extrajudicial search and seizures, regulate the economy and the operation of businesses and the like.

General state practice shows a country’s constitution or legislation normally describes the circumstances that can give rise to a state of emergency, enumerates the procedures to be followed and prescribes the scope of authority to be exercised under emergency powers. Usually, the head of the executive branch either declares a state of emergency and notifies the legislature within a specified period of time for ratification or proposes a declaration of state of emergency to the legislature to enact it into law. In a few countries, the legislature declares a state of emergency sua sponte.

Most constitutions require well-considered justifications and sufficient facts for the decision to declare a state of emergency and the specific measures to address the situation, among others: 1) facts supporting existence of extraordinary circumstances posing a fundamental threat to the country; 2) the legal framework consisting of constitutional and legislative authority for the implementation of the emergency declaration; 3) the emergency preparedness plan and operational framework for implementation of the state of emergency for a designated period; 4) specification of a sunset clause or a time definite for termination of the state of emergency ; 5) provisions for further extension of the state of emergency and related procedures and 6) procedures for post state of emergency review and accountability.

It is of the utmost importance that in a state of emergency, full control and responsibility for government operations and functions remain with civilian authorities. Military, police and security agencies must be subject to full civilian control or civilian supremacy. The alternative is a slippery slope to martial law.

Most parliaments also have the power to review the state of emergency at regular intervals and to suspend it as necessary.

In most national constitutions including the United States, no one individual has the sole authority to declare a state of emergency. Though a president or prime minster may initiate a declaration of state of emergency, it is often the case that the parliament and in the U.S., the Congress, that has the power to issue the declaration or retroactively ratify it as the U.S.  President Abe Lincoln’s assertion of vast presidential war powers during the civil war is instructive. In 1861, Lincoln claimed as commander-in-chief he had the power to “take any measure which may best subdue the enemy”, declared martial law and suspended the writ of habeas corpus by presidential decree and authorized the trial of civilians by military courts. He declared, “I may in an emergency do things on military grounds which cannot be done constitutionally by Congress.”  Subsequently, Congress ratified Lincoln’s actions.

State of emergency declarations must conform to international law

State of emergency declarations often involve restrictions on the course of social, economic, civil and political activity and curtail civil liberties and rights. The overriding concern is always the abuse and misuse of a state of emergency by the ruling regime issuing the declaration to suppress the opposition, dissent and human rights.  All states should have an interest in ensuring that the declaration and implementation of states of emergency are subject to certain limitations and proceed in accordance with international norms.

Ethiopia became a party by accession to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), in June 1993. Article 4 to the ICCPR allows states “in a time of public emergency to take measures derogating from their obligations under the present Covenant to the extent strictly required by the exigencies of the situation”, subject to notification of the Secretary-General of the United Nations.

Under ICCPR, there are additional requirements that states must meet in justifying a declaration of a state of emergency:

1) it must be supported by substantial evidence of exceptional, real and imminent threat to the nation; 2) the declaration must not negate the principle of the rule of law or encourage state action in violation of the principle of the rule of law; 3) it must not condone or approve violations of non-derogable fundamental human right principles including the prohibition on torture, freedom from slavery, freedom of thought, conscience and religion and the right to recognition before the law, the humane treatment of all persons deprived of their liberty, prohibition of propaganda advocating war or national, racial, or religious hatred; 4) citizens must be fully informed of the facts and legal basis for the declaration; 5) the state must notify  appropriate treaty-monitoring bodies as per Article 4; 6) the aim at the end of the limited state of emergency must be to secure a swift return to normalcy and the restoration of the constitutional order in which rights can again be fully ensured; 7) whatever the emergency situation, the post hoc accountability powers of parliament, i.e. the right to conduct inquiries and investigations on the execution of emergency powers ought to be guaranteed by law. This is important for both assessing government behaviour and identifying lessons learned with a view to future emergencies.

The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has recently published detailed guidelines on the declaration of state of emergency necessitated by the COVID-19 crisis incorporating ICCPR treaty language. A proper state of emergency declaration must be 1) “strictly temporary in scope”; 2) “least intrusive to achieve the stated public health goals” and 3) “include safeguards such as sunset or review clauses, in order to ensure return to ordinary laws as soon as the emergency situation is over.”

To declare or not to declare a state of emergency to postpone the August 2020 election is NOT the question

On March 31, 2020, the independent Ethiopian Election Board (Art. 102, Ethiopian Constitution) issued a statement that “because of issues related to the coronavirus, the board has decided it cannot conduct the election as planned… so it has decided to void that calendar and suspend all activities.” On April 30, Board  Chair Birtukan Mideksa formally reported to the Ethiopian parliament that given COVID-19, it is “impossible” for her Board to do the vital preparatory work to conduct a free and fair election. Because of COVID-19, the Board could not undertake voter registration and education, ballot preparation and distribution of election materials, organize election observers and train election workers, supervise nomination of candidates, monitor campaign activities, organize polling booths and other related essential functions.

It is manifest to all reasonable minds that the August elections cannot proceed with the COVID-19 crisis upending the country’s social, economic and political system. It is foolhardy,  downright reckless and dangerous to even suggest that full-scale election campaigns and electoral preparations can go on given the great uncertainties in the spread of COVID19 in Ethiopia. It is because of the deep uncertainties in the burgeoning COVID-19 crisis, the need to devote all available material and human resources to its prevention, treatment and mitigation, the necessity to deal effectively with the social and economic dislocations caused by the crisis and ultimately to ensure a free and fair election that can withstand international standards and scrutiny that the election must be postponed for a reasonable period of time or until the pandemic threat is declared minimal for normal processes to continue.

Unfortunately, the constitutional timetable cannot be met because of the force majeure of COVID-19. To proceed with the August election would be playing Russian roulette on the heads of 110 million Ethiopian with a fully loaded gun. Untold numbers of people could die and the resulting impact on society would be catastrophic.

The question is not whether a state of emergency can be declared to postpone the August 2020 election. The question is how best to postpone the election with public dialogue that maximizes accountability, transparency, inclusivity and collective concern for the public good.

The constitutional matrix for postponement of the August 2020 election

Mamo Mehretu has summarized the various suggested options along four dimensions: 1) The current government stays with a limited mandate as “caretaker” after the dissolution of parliament; 2) The current government extends term through a state of emergency and enjoys regular full mandate; 3) Clarification can be obtained through a constitutional amendment; and 4) The question could be referred to the House of Federation’s Council of Constitutional Inquiry, for constitutional interpretation and final determination. Ethiopian legal experts have studied the issues and made their recommendations.

Transitional government?

First, let me dispose of two arguments that claim there are no constitutional options to postpone the election. Proponents argue the only solution is political and insist on the formation of a “transitional government.” Second, TPLF leaders have proclaimed they can organize and run their own election in Tigray region “because there will not be a legitimate government after September 2020” when the current five-year term ends for the current parliament.

In August 1991, I wrote a commentary on the TPLF’s proposals for a “transitional government reflecting the differences of opinion, interests and aspirations of the peoples of the country.” The late TPLF leader Meles Zenawi said Ethiopia’s problems stemmed from “denial of democratic rights” and pronounced the end of an “unjust system that relegated the people to the status of second-class citizens in their own country.” The TPLF “transitional government” led to a 27-year TPLF dictatorship in Ethiopia.

In 2015, I argued Ethiopia needs a “a successful transition from dictatorship to constitutional democracy. Ethiopians need to practice the arts of civil discourse and negotiations. As difficult and embarrassing as it is to admit, many Ethiopian elites on all sides seem to suffer from a culture of inflexibility and zero-sum gamesmanship.” In other words, those who clamored for a transitional government in 2015 and those clamoring for it today cannot even sit together and have a conversation on soccer let alone dialogue meaningfully over the weighty issue of forming a transitional government. None of the “leaders” publicly urging formation of a transitional government today have any credibility and are known for their dishonesty, duplicity and mendacity.

A “transitional government” for six months until a new election can be held is absurd and nonsensical.

Manifestly, the proponents of the formation of a transitional government are naïve, ignorant, benighted or all three. Transitional governments are not formed in a day or even a month. They are extraordinarily difficult and often futile exercises. There are many preparatory undertakings that must precede even before the parties to form such a government are brought together for discussion. Independent third-party intermediators must be established. Contentious agenda items must be negotiated. Terms of power sharing must be drafted and circulated. Contending groups and leaders must be selected using criteria likely to be contentious. Deadlines and timetables must be set and other logistical arrangements must be made.

Talk of a transitional government is a red herring, an irrelevant topic introduced to divert public attention.

The proponents of a transitional government in Ethiopia should carefully study the experience of South Sudan.

In 2015, leaders of contending factions in South Sudan signed an agreement to create a transitional government, which did not even last until the ink on the agreement dried. Because of the failure to implement that agreement, hundreds of thousands of innocent South Sudanese died in factional violence and massive human rights violations were committed by both sides.

In 2019, pressured by the U.N and the U.S., the South Sudanese leaders again agreed to form a transitional unity government to end a five-year civil war.

It was not until February 2020, barely two months ago, that the South Sudanese were able to implement a transitional government agreement. How long that will last is anybody’s guess.

The proposal for a transitional government for Ethiopia until the next election, following postponement of the August 2020, is an invitation to anarchy, disorder, lawlessness and mobocracy.

Those who are howling for a transitional government in lieu of postponement of the August 2020 election are either willfully ignorant, think they can steal their way into power in the chaos of a transitional government or both. Truth be told, what these “leaders” want is not a transitional government. They want to create chaos in government so that they can transition themselves into power.

The TPLF’s plans for an illegal regional election

The TPLF’s proclamation that they will proceed to have elections in August 2020 in complete disregard of the mandate in Article 102 of the Ethiopian Constitution shows the utter hypocrisy and abysmal duplicity that is coded in their DNA. Article 102 provides, “There shall be established a National Election Board independent of any influence, to conduct in an impartial manner free and fair election in Federal and State constituencies.”

The TPLF has always been a fair-weather friend of the Ethiopian Constitution. They will pontificate and defend the Constitution when it suits their purposes and throw it away like a dirty rag when they are held to account under it.

The TPLF Central Committee Official Statement on the Occasion of the 45th Anniversary in February 2020, barely two months ago, proclaimed:

Institutions and institutionalism are being destroyed. Reversal of the country’s achievements accompanied by monstrous violations and actions in both the economic and the political fronts are prevalent. The Constitution, which is the only reliable savior of the country, is violated and rule of law is endangered…The continuity of the country is guaranteed only when the Constitution and the federal system of governance are respected. Thus, we assure you that TPLF will work with you in strengthening and scaling up the struggle you have already begun to save the Constitution and the multinational federal system.” (Boldface added.)

In May 2020, the TPLF is caught red handed destroying institutions and institutionalism –indeed, the most important institution of democratic election – established under Article 102.  When the TPLF invokes the Constitution to suit its purposes it is “the only reliable savior of the country.” When it does not, it is not worth the paper it is written on.

The proclamations of the TPLF merchants of lies, deceit and duplicity remind me of lines from Shakespeare’s Merchant of Venice:

The devil can cite Scripture for his purpose.
An evil soul producing holy witness
Is like a villain with a smiling cheek,
A goodly apple rotten at the heart.
O, what a goodly outside falsehood hath!

So, the TPLF Princes of Darkness can cite the Constitution for their own purposes with a smiling cheek!

In 2006, I wrote a commentary severely criticizing the TPLF regime for its failure to respect its constitution in the treatment of the Kinijit Party defendants and others. One of the charges against those defendants was violation of Article 238 of the Penal Code (“Outrages against the Constitution or the Constitutional Order”). Suffice it to say that the TPLF proclamation to hold a regional election in Tigray in violation of Article 102 of the Ethiopian Constitution and a flagrant violation of Article 238 of the Penal Code (“Outrages against the Constitution or the Constitutional Order”).

I am not surprised by the TPLF’s threat to breach the Constitution for two reasons. First, since its adoption in 1995, the Ethiopian Constitution has been abused and misused by the TPLF regime to practice “constitutional dictatorship” in the form of a state of emergency or command post government. The Constitution served and protected only the interests of the TPLF. For everyone else, the Constitution was not worth the paper on which it was written. The TPLF’s maxim was always,  “Justice for Just Us.”

Second, the TPLF was established for the single purpose of creating a “Tigray State”. In its Manifesto, the TPLF declared its mission is to create an independent Tigray State. The TPLF claimed Tigray was invaded by (Emperor) Atse Menelik and became an Amhara colony.  When the TPLF was in power, its core strategy was to systematically cleanse Ethiopian national identity, history and consciousness. It is a fact that the TPLF has NEVER repudiated its Manifesto.

In the 1990s, the late Meles Zenawi  was fond of saying that without his guiding hand and TPLF leadership, Ethiopia will go the way of Yugoslavia. Balkanization was Meles’ dream for Ethiopia. It is the TPTLF’s dream today. For a quarter of a century, the TPLF toiled day and night to carve up and chop up Ethiopia to facilitate and prolong their rule.

Having failed to dismember Ethiopia, the TPLF now prepares to dismember Tigray from Ethiopia by holding an illegal election. (Aya jibo, satamehagne bilagn.) 

No one should be surprised. The TPLF leaders are experts in holding fake elections. If they do hold their illegal elections, that is all it will be. Illegal. Unconstitutional and fake.

If the TPLF is conducting its illegal election by contriving a so-called constitutional crisis to implement their dream of a “Tigray State” foretold in their Manifesto., they will fail! 

We must be clear about the constitutional issues at hand

The constitutional question on the delay and postponement of the August 2020 election arises from an apparent lack of clarity in Article 58 (3) of the Ethiopian Constitution which mandates, “The House of Peoples’ Representatives shall be elected for a term of five years. Elections for a new House shall be concluded one month prior to the expiry of the House’s term.”  Unfortunately, Article 58 does not expressly anticipate postponement or delay of elections or provide for extraordinary circumstances that could prevent an election as prescribed in the timetable.

The current term of parliament expires by the end of September 2020, which means under Article 58 (3), the election must take place by the end of August. The problem is such an election cannot be held within the constitutionally prescribed time frame because of the COVID-19 crisis.

The question is what constitutional mechanism are available to address the apparent lack of express language authorizing postponement or delay of an election under Article 58?

The experience in American constitutional jurisprudence should prove instructive in this regard.

The U.S. Constitution contains 4,543 words, including the signatures and with the 27 amendments comes to a total of 7,591. The Constitution “phrasing is broad and the limitations of its provisions are not clearly marked. Its majestic generalities and ennobling pronouncements are both luminous and obscure. This ambiguity of course calls forth interpretation, the interaction of reader and text…”

The 19^th century British Prime Minister William Gladstone said, “The American Constitution is, so far as I can see, the most wonderful work ever struck off at a given time by the brain and purpose of man.” I agree and am very proud to have had the privilege to teach, practice and defend it in the highest state and federal courts of the United States.

In contrast, the Ethiopian Constitution barely three decades-old and contains 13,625 words by my count. It needs much refinement and careful redrafting.

The 1787 U.S. Constitution does not designate a branch of government to definitively resolve constitutional questions and issues. Article III which creates the judicial branch does not grant the Supreme Court the express power to review the constitution and render a definitive interpretation.

In 1803, in Marbury v. Madison, arguably the single most important case in American legal history, the U.S. Supreme Court case established the principle of judicial review. Justice John Marshall declared it was the exclusive duty and responsibility of the judicial branch to interpret and apply the language of the Constitution. “It is emphatically the province and duty of the judicial department to say what the law is,” including the supreme law of the land. With that case, Marshall managed to establish the power of the court as the ultimate arbiter of the Constitution. The U.S. Constitution has been developed through interpretation and re-interpretationby the courts.

Unlike the U.S. Constitution, the Ethiopian Constitution clearly delegates the ultimate power of constitutional interpretation to the House of Federation with investigative powers granted to Council of Constitutional Inquiry. To borrow from Marbury v. Madison, “It is emphatically the province and duty of the House of Federation to say what the constitutional law is and is not.” Indeed, the House of Federation over the past decades has been engaged in “investigating questions of constitutional interpretation from various individuals and sections of the society.”

Article 62 (1) provides, “1. The House has the power to interpret the Constitution.”

Article 83 (1) “All constitutional disputes shall be decided by the House of the Federation. 2. The House of the Federation shall, within thirty days of receipt, decide a constitutional dispute submitted to it by the Council of Constitutional Inquiry.”

Article 84 (1) “The Council of Constitutional Inquiry shall have powers to investigate constitutional disputes. Should the Council, upon consideration of the matter, find it necessary to interpret the Constitution, it shall submit its recommendations thereon to the House of the Federation.”

Therefore, there is no question that the House of Federation and Council of Constitutional Inquiry have the power to review the issue of delay or postponement of the August 2020 election under Article 58 and render a final determination.

The task of the Council of Constitutional Inquiry are spelled out in Article 84(1) of the Constitution (which empowers the Council to “investigate constitutional disputes”)  and Proclamation 798/2013. The Council is established as an independent body (Art. 15) consisting of the President and Vice President  of the Federal Supreme Court as chair and vice chair respectively, six legal experts of high standing  appointed by the President of the Republic on recommendation by the House of Peoples’ Representatives, and three persons designated by the House of the Federation from among its members.

Under Article 3 of Proclamation 798, the Council has the power to consider and review for constitutionality “any law or customary practice or decision of government organ or decision of government official” submit its recommendation to the House of the Federation.” Under Article 9, the Council has the power to compel “pertinent institutions or professionals, to appear before it and give opinions.”

The House of Federation and the Council are expected to review issues before them fairly and impartially and with fidelity to the principles of constitutionalism, fairness, equity and justice.

While I am not presumptuous enough to tell the House of Federation and Council of Constitutional Inquiry on how to perform their constitutional responsibilities, I would like to share my experience as a teacher and practitioner of American constitutional law for over three decades. Indeed, I have been privileged to spar in and out of court with some of the highest jurists and academics in America on constitutional interpretation. I trust the Federation and Council will consider my views as part of their deliberation.

In performing constitutional review, I believe the House of Federation must be guided by two questions:

First, in the absence of express language authorizing delay or postponement of an election under Article 54, does a force majeure epidemic recognized under Proclamation 3/2020 provide a necessary and sufficient condition for postponement under Article 93 (a)?

Second, is there an independent constitutional basis to postpone the August 2020 election based exclusively on Article 93 (a)?

The first question requires the House of Federation to interpret Article 54 and determine whether postponement can be obtained consistent with the language and spirit of that Article.

First, let me state that Ethiopia, unlike the United States, does not have a well-established tradition of constitutional interpretation. The U.S. has a rich constitutional history that spans well over two centuries. There are hundreds of thousands of constitutional appellate decisions that serve as precedent and countless numbers of academic and scholarly treatises and critiques on the constitution and how it should be interpreted. Ethiopia does not have the benefit of a well-developed constitutional jurisprudence and scholarship.

In the absence of guiding judicial precedents, doctrines, standards and tests to interpret and fix the meaning of constitutional language, the House of Federation and Council should follow an approach/principle employed widely by American jurists called “Ockham’s razor”, which prescribes the correct answer is often the simplest one. In other words, in their task of constitutional interpretation, the Federation and Council should not waste time engaging in academic and scholastic analysis and debates and be distracted by inconsequential political rhetoric squandering their energies. Rather, their aim should be provide a simple direct answer based on an ordinary understanding of language found in Article 58 and related provisions of the Constitution and render a decision based on reasonable explanations.

In my view, the House of Federation should begin its constitutional analysis NOT by simply focusing on Article 58 but rather by undertaking a structural interpretation of Article 58 within the bundle of constitutional provisions dealing with elections, including Articles 38(1)(c); 38(3); 54 (1), 58(3) and 102(1) (relevant constitutional provision are excerpted at the end of this commentary), the totality of the structure of the constitution and the history of the electoral process since the promulgation of the Constitution in 1995.

The texts of Article 54(1), 58 (3) and 102(1) are clear on the constitutional mandate of ensuring election of members of the House of Peoples’ Representatives for a term of five years in a free and fair elections and for the National Election Board to be the sole organizer and arbiter of such an election. The texts of Article 38 (1)(c) and (3) are equally clear in underscoring the necessity of having elections that “guarantee the free expression of the will of the electors” and that such elections “be conducted in a free and democratic manner.”

The seminal question within the bundle of these provisions is why the drafters of the Constitution omitted contingency language in the event an election could not be held as mandated in Article 58(3). Were the drafters simply unaware of a possibility that could lead to a postponement of an election? Did they intentionally omit such language? Did they intend to create chaos and anarchy by leaving out a contingency clause?

A fair and reasonable reading of Article 58(3) shows that the language therein was intended to be an ironclad constitutional guarantee that elections will take place as prescribed, and not to preclude delay or postponement under extraordinary circumstances. Article 58 did not provide qualificatory language for postponement or delays because the drafters had already anticipated and provided for such extraordinary circumstances under Article 93, which specifically include external invasion, a breakdown of law and order which endangers the constitutional order, a natural disaster, or an epidemic. For instance, there could be no election if the country is under external invasion. The outcome is the same if the country is facing a pandemic of global proportions.

One of the principal purpose of constitutional interpretation is to harmonize the meaning of constitutional language and to illuminate obscure implications locked in words and reconcile linguistic omissions with intended constitutional purposes to produce fair and reasonable outcomes, and in extreme cases to sever language that is manifestly repugnant to the scheme of the constitution.

The House of Federal and Council of Constitutional Inquiry should consider the constitutional scheme evident in Articles 38, 54, 58 and 102 and obtain a result that harmonizes these provisions in rendering their judgment.

Alternative I- Constitutional basis for postponement of the August 2020 election under Article 93

In my constitutional analysis, the critical issue is not the simple fact of meeting a designated constitutional deadline for an election but most importantly the fact of ensuring elections that are held are free and fair. It is pointless to have an election on a particular date if it is not free and fair.

Since 1991, Ethiopia has had elections for the purpose of having elections but none of them were free and fair. For the TPLF elections were nothing more than ritualistic practices and not a process by which the people elected their leaders freely and fairly. Indeed, for the TPLF elections were political theater staged for the benefit of donors and loaners as I argued in my 2009 commentary. Before an election, the TPLF created a fanfare, snagged millions of dollars in aid to conduct the elections and on election day declared total victory. I called elections under the TPLF regime “elektions”, that is fake elections.

In 2011, Seeye Abraha, one of the founders of the TPLF wrote, “The most incredible fact about the May 2010 Ethiopian election is not that the ruling Ethiopian People Revolutionary Party (EPRDF) won; that was foreordained.”

A foreordained election is not much of an election. It is political drama.

In a country where there are over 80 political parties, in 2010, the TPLF regime claimed to have won 99.6 percent of the seats in parliament in 2010.

In 2015, the TPLF claimed it had won 100 percent.

Neither the 2010 nor 2015 elections could be called free and fair by any reasonable standard but they were held on the constitutionally prescribed date.

An election that is not free and fair is no election at all. It is a travesty of election, a monumental disregard of the democratic right to self-government.

Whether or not the August 2020 election should be postponed should pivot on a single question: Given the COVID-19 crisis, is it possible to have a free and fair election in August 2020?

For me, elections under the Ethiopian Constitution is not about having a mechanical process of selecting candidates on a prescribed date. It is about ONE and only ONE thing: Having a free and fair election!

While ignorant demagogues and political junkies bandy the phrase “free and fair election” like expletives, it is rooted in universally accepted principles and practices.

The Inter-Parliamentary Union which represents 179 parliaments, including Ethiopia’s, has published standards for free and fair election which include establishment of 1) procedures and criteria for voter registration, initiation or facilitation of national programs of civic education on election procedures and issues; 2) neutral, impartial mechanism for the management of elections; recruitment and training of election officials and operatives; 3) procedures to ensure the integrity of the ballot and institution of  measures to prevent voting fraud, establishment of mechanisms to ensure the integrity of the vote counting process, 4) mechanisms to ensure freedom of movement, assembly, association and expression for all contenders, particularly in the context of political rallies and meetings and creating conditions that will ensure parties and candidates are free to communicate their views to the electorate and 5) updating of electoral rolls and balloting procedures, and monitoring of performance under election Code of Conduct, among others.

The African Union Declaration on the Principles Governing Democratic Elections in Africa sets similar standards for free and fair election. Under Section III are listed numerous factors that must exist to ensure a free and fair election including: compilation of voters’ registers, establishment of national electoral bodies staffed by qualified personnel, set up of safeguards ensuring freedom of movement, assembly, association, expression, and campaigning, promote civic and voters’ education on the democratic principles and values in close cooperation with the civil society groups, implementation of measures to prevent the perpetration of fraud, rigging or any other illegal practices throughout the whole electoral process, ensure the availability of adequate logistics and resources for carrying out democratic elections and provision of adequate security to all parties participating in elections as well as accrediting national and/other observers/monitors.

These internationally recognized conditions for a free and fair election simply cannot be met today or in August 2020 as unequivocally stated by the head of  the National Election Board because of the COVID-19 crisis.

What constitutional options are available to ensure that a free and fair election is held?

Since the reason precluding a free and fair election in August 2020 is COVID-19 and since COVID-19 is constitutionally recognized as creating a state of emergency in Proclamation 3/2020, it follows that an already recognized emergency under Article 93 is a constitutionally sufficient condition to postpone the election by a declaration of a state of emergency.

The constitutional framework for Proclamation 3/2020 include Article 77(10) (“The Council of Ministers has the power to declare a state of emergency; in doing so, it shall, within the time limit prescribed by the Constitution, submit the proclamation declaring a state of emergency for approval by the House of Peoples’ Representatives.”) and Article 93 which provides:

1. (a) The Council of Ministers of the Federal Government shall have the power to decree a state of emergency… [in the event of] … an epidemic….
2. (a) If declared when the House of Peoples’ Representatives is in session, the decree shall be submitted to the House within forty-eight hours of its declaration… [and when not in session it]  shall be submitted to it within fifteen days of its adoption.
3. A state of emergency decreed by the Council of Ministers, if approved by the House of Peoples’ Representatives, can remain in effect up to six months [and extended]… by a two-thirds majority vote…every four months successively
4. (a) When a state of emergency is declared, the Council of Ministers shall… have all necessary power to protect the country’s peace and sovereignty, and to maintain public security, law and order.

(b) The Council of Ministers shall have the power to suspend such political and democratic rights contained in this Constitution to the extent necessary to avert the conditions that required the declaration of a state of emergency.

(c) In the exercise of its emergency powers the Council of Ministers cannot, however, suspend or limit the rights provided for in Articles 1, 18, 25. and subArticles 1 and 2 of Article 39 of this Constitution.

The House of Peoples’ Representatives, while declaring a state of emergency, shall simultaneously establish a State of Emergency Inquiry Board, comprising of seven persons to be chosen and assigned by the House from among its members and from legal experts [with the duty of]…mak[ing] public within one month the names of all individuals arrested on account of the state of emergency together with the reasons for their arrest… [ensure] no measure taken during the state of emergency is inhumane… [and] (c) To recommend to the Prime Minister or to the Council of Ministers corrective measures if it finds any case of inhumane treatment.

The Council of Ministers of the Federal Government has the plenary constitutional power to declare a state of emergency, in much the same way as it did in Proclamation 3/2020 and postpone the election for the constitutionally mandated period of six months.

A Proclamation to postpone the August 2020 election should be crafted in the same way as Proclamation 3/2020.

Alternative II: Constitutional basis for postponement of the August 2020 election under Article 60: Dissolution of Parliament  

The Prime Minister has plenary powers to dissolve parliament before the expiry of its term.  The Prime Minister is required to consult and obtain the consent of Parliament but ultimately the power to dissolve parliament is delegated to the office of the prime minister. The post-dissolution government will serve as a “caretaker” government.

Article 60 (1) provides, “With the consent of the House, the Prime Minister may cause the dissolution of the House before the expiry of its term in order to hold new elections.”

Article 60 (3) provides, “If the House is dissolved pursuant to sub-Article 1 or 2 of this Article, new elections shall be held within six months of its dissolution.”

Article 60 (5) provides, “Following the dissolution of the House, the previous governing party or coalition of parties shall continue as a caretaker government. Beyond conducting the day to day affairs of government and organizing new elections, it may not enact new proclamations, regulations or decrees, nor may it repeal or amend any existing law.”

Dissolution of parliament is not a viable alternative. Indeed, it is recipe for anarchy and chaos. The post-dissolution government is mandated to play the role of “care taker” which means it is limited in its scope of action. The Prime Minster and the Council of Ministers will be limited to “essential business”. They cannot undertake any new policy initiatives. They cannot make new appointments. They cannot enter into international agreements.

Could any reasonable person seriously consider a “care taker government” when Ethiopia is facing an existential threat unprecedented in living memory?

Could any reasonable person seriously consider a “care taker government” when hundreds of thousands, and possible more, Ethiopians are facing a death sentence at the hands of COVID-19?

Could any reasonable person seriously consider a “care taker government” when Ethiopia is in the grips of COVID-19, Egypt is saber-rattling and beating the drums of war against Ethiopia if Ethiopia should begin to fill the Grand Renaissance Dam in July 2020?

Could any reasonable person seriously consider a “care taker government” when there are those proclaiming to hold their own elections in violation of Article 104 of the Constitution and de facto create their own state?

Could any reasonable person seriously consider a “care taker government” when the world’s leading economists are predicting COVID-19 will exact “a heavy toll on the Ethiopian economy”?

Could any reasonable person seriously consider a “care taker government” when so-called leaders are stoking the flames of ethnic and religious division so that they can grab power?

Could any reasonable person seriously consider a “care taker government” when Ethiopia is rising as a model of democracy, rule of law and human rights in Africa and the rest of the world?

Could any reasonable person seriously consider a “care taker government” when Ethiopia needs hundreds of millions of dollars in loans and aid to fight COVID-19 but will not have a government capable of concluding international agreements. The IMF gave Ethiopia over USD 400 million because it was impressed by the approach and commitment of the government of PM Abiy Ahmed in the COVID-19 crisis. The IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva tweeted, “I commend the swift and decisive response by @AbiyAhmedAli  and #Ethiopia to mitigate the impact of #COVID19.”

PM Abiy will not be able to deal with the IMF, the Wold Bank or any other government or agency if he is the head of a caretaker government!

For lack of a more appropriate phrase fit for polite company to describe my reactions to a dissolved parliament followed by a caretaker government, I will simply say, Bah! Humbug!

Alternative III: Constitutional basis for postponement of the August 2020 election under Article 104 – Amending the Constitution

Article 104 provides for a constitutional amendment: “Any proposal for constitutional amendment, if supported by a two-thirds majority vote in the House of Peoples’ Representatives, or by a two-thirds majority vote in the House of the Federation or when one-third of the State Councils of the member States of the Federation, by a majority vote in each Council have supported it, shall be submitted for discussion and decision to the general public and to those whom the amendment of the Constitution concerns.”

According to one legal commentator, the Ethiopian Constitution has been “amended twice in the past twenty years.” Article 98 was “amended so as to change the spirit of concurrent power of taxation into revenue sharing.” Article 103(5) was amended “to extend the period for conducting national population census to more than 10 years.” This commentator cites authority for the proposition that the “Ethiopian Constitution is silent on defining the bodies having the power to initiate constitutional amendments.” The commentator argues “the constitutional framers [] wished to give the [amendment] power to the House of Peoples’ Representatives, House of Federation and State Councils.” The commentator “conclude[s] in Ethiopia, the HPR, the HoF and State Councils have the power to initiate constitutional amendments” and presentation of the final “‘submi[ssion] [of the amendment] to the general public for discussion and decision”. It “is not clear whether it denotes referendum or not.”

The principle of Ockham’s razon should apply here. There is no need to seek out complex and convoluted solutions when direct and constitutionally sound solutions are available. If indeed a referendum is required for ratification of a constitutional amendment under Article 104 in which a direct and universal vote is required, one might as well have the August 2020 election in the middle of the COVID-19 crisis. If the August 2020 election could not be held because of COVID-19, by the same token no referendum on a constitutional amendment could also held.

The bottom line

The bottom line is that elections are created for people. Those who insist on an election in August 2020 believe people are created for elections.

The choice is simple. Saving Ethiopian lives against having an election on a particular date and risk untold numbers of deaths. Elections make sense when people are alive. Those who try to make political hay out of the postponement of the August election have no regard for the lives of the people they claim to protect and represent. They are only interested in grabbing power at all costs. They will continue to run around threatening violence if the election is postponed and claim there will be no legitimate government after September 2020. But they will find out that when push comes to shove, the velvet gloves will be taken off. They may see this as their last opportunity to sneak themselves into power. They will fail in their evil plans because the people of Ethiopia will reject them totally.

Regardless, the alpha and omega constitutional question in the current debate over postponing the August 2019 elections is whether it is possible, given the COVID-19 crisis, to hold a free and fair election, not the mechanical process of electing candidates to office. If an election could be held on the scheduled date but it cannot be free and fair, it will amount to nothing more than an exercise in futility and a gross abuse of the people’s right to democratic self-rule.

To be continued…

————————

Relevant Constitutional Provisions:

Article 38 (1) (c): “Every Ethiopian national has the right to vote and to be elected at periodic elections to any office at any level of government; elections shall be by universal and equal suffrage and shall be held by secret ballot, guaranteeing the free expression of the will of the electors.”

Article 38 (3): “Elections to positions of responsibility within any of the organizations referred to under sub-Article 2 of this Article shall be conducted in a free and democratic manner.”

Article 5: “The Federal government has the power to declare and to lift national state of emergency and states of emergencies limited to certain parts of the country.”

Article 54 (1): “Article Members of the House of Peoples’ Representatives shall be elected by the People for a term of five years on the basis of universal suffrage and by direct, free and fair elections held by secret ballot.”

55 (8): “The House of Peoples’ Representatives in conformity with Article 93 of the Constitution it shall declare a state of emergency; it shall consider and resolve on a decree of a state of emergency declared by the executive.”

Article 58 (3): “The House of Peoples’ Representatives shall be elected for a term of five years. Elections for a new House shall be concluded one month prior to the expiry of the House’s term.”

Article 60 (1) provides, “With the consent of the House, the Prime Minister may cause the dissolution of the House before the expiry of its term in order to hold new elections.”

Article 60 (3): “If the House is dissolved pursuant to sub-Article 1 or 2 of this Article, new elections shall be held within six months of its dissolution.”

Article 60 (5): “Following the dissolution of the House, the previous governing party or coalition of parties shall continue as a caretaker government. Beyond conducting the day to day affairs of government and organizing new elections, it may not enact new proclamations, regulations or decrees, nor may it repeal or amend any existing law.”

Article 62 (1): “1. The House has the power to interpret the Constitution.”

Article 77 (10): “The Council of Ministers has the power to declare a state of emergency; in doing so, it shall, within the time limit prescribed by the Constitution, submit the proclamation declaring a state of emergency for approval’ by the House of Peoples’ Representatives.”

Article 83 (1): “All constitutional disputes shall be decided by the House of the Federation. 2. The House of the Federation shall, within thirty days of receipt, decide a constitutional dispute submitted to it by the Council of Constitutional Inquiry.”

Article 84 (1): “The Council of Constitutional Inquiry shall have powers to investigate constitutional disputes. Should the Council, upon consideration of the matter, find it necessary to interpret the Constitution, it shall submit its recommendations thereon to the House of the Federation.  (2) 2. Where any Federal or State law is contested as being unconstitutional and such a dispute is submitted to it by any court or interested party, the Council shall consider the matter…

Article 87: “The armed forces shall protect the sovereignty of the country and carry out any responsibilities as may be assigned to them under any state of emergency declared in accordance with the Constitution.”

Article 93: 1. (a) The Council of Ministers of the Federal Government shall have the power to decree a state of emergency should an external invasion, a breakdown of law and order which endangers the constitutional order and which cannot be controlled by the regular law enforcement agencies and personnel, a natural disaster, or an epidemic occur.

2. (a) If declared when the House of Peoples’ Representatives is in session, the decree shall be submitted to the House within forty-eight hours of its declaration. (b) Subject to the required vote of approval set out in (a) of this sub-Article, the decree declaring a state of emergency when the House of peoples’ Representatives is not in session shall be submitted to it within fifteen days of its adoption.
3. A state of emergency decreed by the Council of Ministers, if approved by the House of Peoples’ Representatives, can remain in effect up to six months. The House of Peoples’ Representatives may, by a two-thirds majority vote, allow the state of emergency proclamation to be renewed every four months successively
4. (a) When a state of emergency is declared, the Council of Ministers shall, in accordance with regulations it issues, have all necessary power to protect the country’s peace and sovereignty, and to maintain public security, law and order.

(b) The Council of Ministers shall have the power to suspend such political and democratic rights contained in this Constitution to the extent necessary to avert the conditions that required the declaration of a state of emergency.

(c) In the exercise of its emergency powers the Council of Ministers cannot, however, suspend or limit the rights provided for in Articles 1, 18, 25. and sub Articles 1 and 2 of Article 39 of this Constitution.

The House of Peoples’ Representatives, while declaring a state of emergency, shall simultaneously establish a State of Emergency Inquiry Board, comprising of seven persons to be chosen and assigned by the House from among its members and from legal experts.

6. The State of Emergency Inquiry Board shall have the following powers and responsibilities:

(a) To make public within one month the names of all individuals arrested on account of the state of emergency together with the reasons for their arrest.

(b) To inspect and follow up that no measure taken during the state of emergency is inhumane.

(c) To recommend to the Prime Minister or to the Council of Ministers corrective measures if it finds any case of inhumane treatment.

(d) To ensure the prosecution of perpetrators of inhumane acts.

(e) To submit its views to the House of Peoples’ Representatives on a request to extend the duration of the state of emergency.

Article 102 (1) (2): “1. There shall be established a National Election Board independent of any influence, to conduct in an impartial manner free and fair election in Federal and State constituencies. 2. Members of the Board shall be appointed by the House of Peoples’ Representatives upon recommendation of the Prime Minister.”

Article 104: “Any proposal for constitutional amendment, if supported by a two-thirds majority vote in the House of Peoples’ Representatives, or by a two-thirds majority vote in the House of the Federation or when one-third of the State Councils of the member States of the Federation, by a majority vote in each Council have supported it, shall be submitted for discussion and decision to the general public and to those whom the amendment of the Constitution concerns.”

The post Desperate Times Call for Extraordinary Constitutional Measures: The Necessity of Postponing the August 29, 2020 Federal Parliamentary/Regional Elections in Ethiopia (Part II) appeared first on Satenaw Ethiopian News/Breaking News / Your right to know!.

Addis Getachew   |19.05.2020

Tensions escalate in North Africa, with Egypt seeking the intervention of UNSC against Ethiopia on river water sharing issue

ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia

Tensions have escalated in the Eastern Nile region, with Egypt taking a complaint to the UN Security Council (UNSC) against Ethiopia’s plan to fill a $5billion hydro dam.

The move has riled a cross-section of people in the region, who believed that Egypt should have exhausted to find regional solutions first by approaching the African Union (AU) – a 55-member pan-African body — before knocking at the doors of the UN.

On May 1, Egypt formally complained to the UNSC, accusing Ethiopia of diverting waters of Nile River to fill its Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), in the Benishangul-Gumuz region, 15 km east of the border with Sudan.

The dam is believed to be the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa and the seventh-largest in the world.

Although Ethiopia has said that it has prepared its response to the complaint, it, however, assailed Egypt for taking the issue to the UNSC and ignoring the AU.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed had sought the intervention of the current chairperson of the AU, South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa to mediate between the countries to settle the water issue.

Talks between Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt broke down in February when the US, which was mediating produced a document that was interpreted heavily tilted in favor of Cairo.

Ethiopia contributes 85%of the waters of the Nile River, which traverses along 11 countries before it joins the Mediterranean Sea.

In its complaint to the UNSC, Egypt has accused Ethiopia of adopting a policy of obstructionism and prevarication that has undermined the negotiating process.

“Ethiopia’s overall objective was, and remains, the exercise of unfettered control over the Blue Nile, including by filling and operating the GERD without considering the interests of downstream countries, “said the complaint.

It has also blamed Ethiopia for harming the rights of downstream riparian states by trying to secure an unrestrained right to undertake future projects.

Egypt launches diplomatic pressure

“Egyptians as of late have launched a multi-pronged diplomatic pressure on Ethiopia cognizant of an international water law that guarantees the rights of riparian countries to utilize rivers within their respective national boundaries,” Silabat Manaye., an author and a senior reporter with the Addis Ababa based Fana Broadcasting Corporate told Anadolu Agency.

Silabat, who has authored a book on Nile politics said that for years foreign powers have plotted against Ethiopia to prevent it from using waters of Abbay, the local name for the Blue Nile River.

“Ethiopia has 65 million people [out of a total 110 million population] without electricity. I completed my schooling studying without electricity. I resent that, “he said.

Zerihun Abebe, a diplomat who is a member of the Ethiopian negotiating team said he was surprised at the attitude of Egypt for taking the complaint to the UNSC and accusing Ethiopia of “unilateralism”.

He said that Ethiopia had a sovereign right to fill the dam constructed within its borders and through local funding.

“Ethiopia invited both Egypt and Sudan and shared details about the GERD in 2012 and kick-starting a process of trilateral talks. And that was based on Ethiopia’s firm stand on the principle of cooperation, regional partnership and to find a win-win solution, “said the diplomat.

According to Ethiopia’s Water and Energy Minister Seleshi Bekele, his country over many years has shared more than 150 technical documents with Egypt and Sudan. Rejecting the allegation of resorting to unilateralism, he said Ethiopia has been committed to multilateralism both regionally and internationally.

Established in 1999, the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) an intergovernmental partnership had been providing a forum for consultation and coordination among 10 countries to settle water sharing issues. The countries included Burundi, DR Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda. Eritrea is an observer.

But Egypt left the NBI when it was decided to set up a Nile Commission. A Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) has been already ratified by four countries including Uganda. By the time six countries ratify, it would become an international treaty to govern all activities in the Nile basin. Leaders of the riparian countries will be members of the much-awaited Nile Commission.

Dam to be filled in four to seven years

According to Ethiopia’s Water and Energy Ministry, it is planning to fill the dam in four to seven years to avoid any water shortage to downstream countries.

The first stage of filling the dam with 4.9 billion cubic meters is expected to begin in July to test two turbines. The GERD gas total capacity of accommodating 74 billion cubic meters of water. The second filling stage will add 13 billion cubic meters of water.

The International Crisis Group (ICG) had recommended a series of steps to prevent escalation of tensions in the region.

The ICG Adviser for Ethiopia William Davison described Egypt’s attempts to knock the doors of the UNSC to bring pressure on Ethiopia into signing the US-sponsored draft deal.

“This is unlikely to be successful as there’s no sign that Ethiopia is willing to reverse its position. Instead of diplomatic escalation, Egypt should return to the trilateral process and encourage Ethiopia to propose fresh drought-mitigation measures, which have been a key sticking point,” he said.

He further recommended that Ethiopia should meet Egypt halfway to consider its request for a third-party arbitration, perhaps to use an African dispute-resolution mechanism instead of the international process. Prime Minister Ahmed should also recommit to negotiate a comprehensive GERD accord with Egypt and Sudan, he said.

The ICG further stated that if the parties are unable to strike a comprehensive agreement, they should focus on closing an initial deal for the first two years of filling. “That would institutionalize cooperation and provide a suitable foundation and more time to finalize an all-encompassing agreement on GERD’s filling and operation, “said the ICG advisor.

Both Egypt and Sudan, however, reject the prospect of an initial agreement on the first filling as suggested by the ICG – an idea of the possibility of which Ethiopia’s PM consulted with the leaders of the two countries. Ethiopia says it is, however, not obligated to inform Egypt of its filling schedules.

The post Nile: River of discord between Egypt and Ethiopia appeared first on Satenaw Ethiopian News/Breaking News / Your right to know!.

Samuel Gebre, Bloomberg News

(Bloomberg) –Ethiopia is pushing ahead with plans to sell two new telecommunications licenses following delays due to the coronavirus outbreak and postponed elections.

Almost two years after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced a plan to open up the market, the government on Thursday opened a month-long window for potential buyers to submit expressions of interest, with the International Finance Corp. as advisor.

Africa’s second-most populous country is one of the final frontiers for telecom investors, and carriers such as Orange SA, MTN Group Ltd. and Vodacom Group Ltd. are among those eyeing the opportunity. It will be a “competitive bidding process,” according to an emailed statement from the Ethiopian Communication Authority.

Last month, the ECA published the first three of a dozen draft directives to guide operations in the sector including dispute resolution. Ethiopia’s initial plans to issue licenses by March 2020 were disrupted by the decision to hold elections on Aug. 29, which the government later postponed indefinitely due to the virus outbreak.

Abiy’s administration wants to offer two new licenses and sell part of the state-controlled monopoly, Ethio Telecom, to help liberalize the economy and attract more foreign capital. Consultancy firm KPMG completed a valuation of the company, now under review by the board.

The post Ethiopia Moves to Open Phone Industry to Investors appeared first on Satenaw Ethiopian News/Breaking News.

Addis Ababa (ENA) — The number of COVID-19 positive cases in Ethiopia has climbed to 655 with 73 new infections identified in the past 24 hours.

According to the Ministry of Health, this is the second largest single-day increase to date after 88 people tested positive for coronavirus on Sunday.

The new cases are from 2,844 samples which were tested over the last 24 hours, the ministry revealed.

Among the 73 confirmed cases are 49 males and 24 females aged between 8 and 75 years.

Among the confirmed cases, 56 are identified in the capital city Addis Ababa, where 13 of them having contacts with confirmed cases, 12 with travel history from abroad and 31 with no travel history or known contacts with confirmed cases.

In Tigray Regional State 4 people with travel history were tested positive, 2 in Amhara Regional State with known contacts, 8 in Somali Regional State with travel history and 3 long truck drivers with travel history from abroad.

Some 159 patients who tested positive for Covid-19 have so far recovered from the virus. Seven have recovered today.

But some 489 patients are on treatment center, with one patient in Intensive Care Unit.

Authorities have so far ordered wide range of measures to contain the spread of COVID-19, including a five-month state of emergency declared in early April.

The Ministry of Health in its recent statement has warned the general public to strictly adhere to all precaution measures as spread of the virus is spiking.

However, the extent of the virus recently is increasing from time to time among the vulnerable society, entering a new stage of “community transmission” since last week.

The post Ethiopia Observes Swell in COVID-19 Cases as 73 Tested Positives — May 25, 2020 appeared first on Satenaw Ethiopian News/Breaking News.

Alemayehu G. Mariam

Author’s Note: On May 18, 2020, I had an opportunity to make a virtual appearance  (in Amharic, begins at minute 36:17- 1:22) before the Ethiopian Constitutional Inquiry Council and share my views on issues related to the postponement of the August 2020 national and regional elections because of the Covid-19 crisis. My purpose in appearing before the Council was to share my knowledge, insights and experience in American constitutional law in addressing the issues before the Council.  I am not a stranger to the Ethiopian Constitution. I have written numerous commentaries on it over the past decade and half.

To have an informed conversation about contemporary constitutional issues, it is important for all Ethiopians, especially the so-called elites dabbling and meddling in politics, to have basic familiarity with our constitutional history and the great historical constitutions of the world. With due respect to all African countries, I wish to emphasize that Ethiopia is not a creation of European colonial domination though I am first to acknowledge their machinations and designs to subjugate Ethiopia. Ethiopians have a rich millennia-old civilization and a strong tradition of rule of law and centuries-old system of laws, institutions and norms.

The belief in the supremacy and primacy of the rule of law is so deep in Ethiopia, a proverb says the divine power of the law  could stop not only humans but also a flooding river: “Be hig amlak sibal enkwan sew  weraj wonz yiqomal.” A critical understanding of our constitutional history will help us gain insight into our current problems, avoid repeating mistakes and chart a clear course for the future.

In successive short commentaries to appear in the coming days, I shall expand on my testimony and answers before the Council and expound on constitutional interpretation. In Part I, I offer an overview based on primary constitutional sources. I invite my readers to examine them to broaden their understanding.

Part I — Understanding constitutionalism and constitutional law

Most people who talk about constitutions in America or Ethiopia have barely read their respective constitutions. Studies show, “Americans know literally nothing about the Constitution.” I suspect that may be equally true for Ethiopians. It is not only the average citizens but also most of the elites who suffer from constitutional literacy or a deficit of constitutional knowledge and understanding in both countries. As a result, extremist elements and the willfully ignorant in America and Ethiopia are often heard blathering uninformed and reckless public pronouncements which subvert constitutional governance into a game of fully loaded Russian roulette.

Generically, a constitution is a legal document that sets out the basic principles and organization of government, specifies the scope and limitations of governmental powers and provides for a scheme of civil liberties. Beyond these basic attributes, there are many different types of constitutions: written and unwritten, republican and monarchical, presidential and parliamentary, federal and unitary, liberal-democratic and socialist and so on. Some constitutions are written in “majestic generalities” and others like ordinary legislation with minute details. Some like the U.S. constitution are short (4,500 words) and others like India’s have exceedingly long (145 thousand words). Some constitutions are interpreted by courts (e.g. judicial review in the U.S.) and a legislative body (e.g. Ethiopia) in others. Some constitutions are driven by ideals of liberty and equality and others by narrow ideology. Most constitutions are secular but there are some theocratic constitutions founded on religious precepts.

In most constitutions, the phrase “supreme law of the land” is used to signify that the constitution is the foundation and ultimate source of legal authority in the society. All government legislation, regulations and rules must conform to the constitution and conflicting laws are deemed invalid. All institutions and leaders are sworn to uphold and defend the constitution. Constitutions are drafted to endure for generations and reflect the consensus of diverse and competing interests in society. They are amended only by extraordinary means because they anchor the foundations of society.

Understanding the constitution of a given society goes beyond textual or semantic analysis of the words. It requires a broader understanding of the society’s history, political struggles and challenges, the diversity of views and perspectives as well as the shared expectations and aspirations of the people.

Constitutional origins

Most constitutions of the world share similar values, aspirations and even substantive textual language. That is because constitution drafting is an eclectic process and draws from diverse historical and contemporary sources.

Most modern constitutions could be traced to the legal systems of classical antiquity. The Constitution of the Roman Republic consisted of informal and unwritten ideas about separation of powers, checks and balances, vetoes, term limits, impeachments. That constitution created legislative chambers and determined rights of citizenship. The Athenian Constitution (Areopagite constitution) consisting of two parts, described the constitutional and legal codes on citizenship, magistrates, and the courts, among other things. Many modern constitutions trace their roots to classical antiquity and modern Western constitutions after the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648 establishing the modern state system.

The Magna Carta (Great Charter) (1215) is a unique constitutional document unlike any other preceding it. It was drafted by the ruled and imposed on the rulers. It was a bold effort to subjugate rulers to the rule of law and aimed to create a binding political contract between subjects and kings. (See my commentary “A Magna Carta for Ethiopia”.)  The unwritten Manden Charter (1235) of the great African kingdom of Mali is touted by some as being the first constitutional document to recognize human rights. It aims to promote social peace in diversity, the inviolability of the human being, education, the integrity of the motherland, food security, the abolition of slavery, and freedom of expression and trade. The English “Bill of Rights” (1689), the French “Declaration of the Rights of Man and of the Citizen” (1789) and the U.S. Constitution of 1787 with its amendments are inspirational sources for the majority of world constitutions.

Ethiopia’s constitutional history

Most African countries, which gained their independence after 1960, did not have constitutional history before colonialism. Many post-independence African constitutions were drafted with the heavy influence of their former colonial masters. Other African countries which considered themselves “revolutionary” opted to follow the constitutional path of the communist-bloc countries.

Uniquely, Ethiopia has a significant constitutional history dating back to the Middle Ages. The Fetha Nagast (Law of the Kings), compiled around 1240 AD, was Ethiopia’s constitution until a modern one was drafted in 1931. The first part of the Fetha Negast deals with ecclesiastical matters and church hierarchy. The second part covers a variety of secular matters including liberty, slavery, partnership, lease, property rights and other similar things.

The 1931 Constitution replaced the Fetha Negast and represents the first modern constitution of  Ethiopia. That constitution deals with succession to the throne, prerogatives of the emperor, rights recognized by the emperor, deliberative chambers of the empire, jurisdiction of courts and functions of ministers.

The 1955 Revised Constitution of Ethiopia consisting of 131 articles was a radical departure from previous conceptions of government and royal authority. It incorporated ideas about separation of powers between three branches of government. However, the king still retained ultimate power including appointment of ministers, senators and judges. Interestingly, Chapter III of that Constitution (“Rights and Duties of the People) could be described as a virtual carbon copy of the American Bill of Rights and other amendments to the U.S. Constitution:

1987 Constitution of Ethiopia, drafted by the military Derg socialist regime, consisted of 119 articles. It created a “National Shengo” (assembly) as the highest organ of state power with members were elected to five-year terms. The president elected by the National Shengo along with ministers appointed by same exercised executive powers. That constitution mimicked constitutions of the communist bloc countries of the time with the ruling party exercising monopoly power in the name of the working people and peasanty.

The current 1995 Constitution consisting  of 106 articles provides for a parliamentary federal government of nine ethnically-based regions. It creates a dual legislative body of the House of Peoples’ Representatives and the House of Federation and a ceremonial presidency. This constitution has some interesting provisions. Article 13 specifies that these rights and freedoms will be interpreted according to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, and other international instruments adopted by Ethiopia. The document further guarantees that all Ethiopian languages will enjoy equal state recognition, although Amharic is specified as the working language of the federal government. Under Chapter III “HUMAN RIGHTS” are listed the following liberties which virtually replicate the American Bill of Rights.

What a constitution is not  

In the current discussion and debate over the constitutional authority to postpone the August 2020 national and regional election because of COVID-19, I am amused by the lack of substantive knowledge, shallow understanding of constitutional law and dogmatism of those who proclaim, “After September 30, 2020, there is no government in Ethiopia. It is a free for all. Anyone can establish their own governments.”

The choice is not between a duly established constitutional order and the anarchy of the mob presided over by those thirsty for power. The choice is between a constitutional government that can protect liberty the in terrorem rule of the mob. A wise American jurist writing about American civil liberties warned against converting the constitution into a suicide pact of total anarchy.

Part II- Constitutional interpretation…

The post Understanding, Interpreting and Applying the Ethiopian Constitution During the Covid-19 Pandemic (Part I) appeared first on Satenaw Ethiopian News/Breaking News.

The post Ethiopia setting record straight on grand dam on Nile appeared first on Satenaw Ethiopian News/Breaking News.