By Alemayehu G. Mariam

“Medemer” (original in Amharic), Dr. Abiy Ahmed, Prime Minister of Ethiopia and Nobel Peace Laureate 2019, 280 pp. (October 2019)

Reviewer’s Note:

Part I of my book review on the “philosophy” of Medemer appeared in my October 20,  2019 commentary

My review of “Medemer” is intended for the benefit and convenience of English-speaking audiences who have a sincere desire to understand and rigorously critique “Medemer” philosophy for what it is and is not. I present my personal reflections and perspectives on Medemer philosophy or idea and invite others to review the book and thoughtfully discuss its usefulness and relevance to Ethiopia.

In Part II, I discuss the author’s Medemer praxis  in a variety of areas. In a postscript, I shall argue medemer philosophy/praxis is the antidote to political, informational and economic entropy in Ethiopia.

Praxis of Medemer

Medmer is part philosophy/theory and part praxis and as such contains a set of actionable measures and policy prescriptions.

I have previously written on the praxis of Medemer in the context of the distressing, tragic and often aggravating politics of the Horn of Africa and the application of Medemer principles to conflict resolution there.[1] I argued, “What happens in each Horn country affects the others. War in one country threatens the peace in the other. Peace and democracy in one country becomes an example of good governance for others. Regional integration is another phrase for ‘Medemer’.”

Indeed, in a recent speech[2] marking a breakthrough in the Sudan negotiations which resulted in power sharing between the military and civilians, the author explained “the people of Sudan have done well in choosing cooperation over competition which is essential to our collective survival”. He said, the Horn region must “act in synergy” and Medemer becomes a “yarn weaving us together collectively” and help us achieve “collectively what we can only imagine individually”.

In the second part of the book, the author explains the mechanics and application of Medemer  to a whole host of issues and problems facing Ethiopia. His analysis begins with a discussion of “two types of oppression”, man-made and other structural. He argues oppression  results when governments are unable or unwilling to meet their people’s expectations and demands.

“Man-made oppression” is forged in the minds of people who lack a moral compass and are stone deaf to the voice of their own consciences. They are depravedly indifferent to the suffering of people starving, in poverty or facing abuse and mistreatment. Their sole concern and preoccupation is keeping themselves in power with the barrel of the gun or the power of the almighty birr (dollar). Their guiding philosophy is “might makes right”  and “get your money and run.”

“Structural oppression” involves the concerted actions of organized groups within society. The author discusses nine typologies of structural oppression ranging from gender to regime.

The author attributes the persistence of oppression in considerable part to the failure of Ethiopian intellectuals. They generally tend to be narrow-minded, incredibly naïve and misguided because they believe they can implement ideas they have read in books or figments of their imagination. They rarely do strategic planning to implement their ideas into action. They are afflicted by indolence, negligence and indifference. They are impetuous and often prone to emotional reactions casting intellectual rigor to the wind.  In sum, Ethiopia sorely lacks grounded and matured intellectuals.  The author argues the failure of Ethiopian intellectuals to articulate alternate visions, silence in the face of wrongs, complicity with brutal and corrupt regimes and ineffective leadership styles have contributed to the systemic failure of governance and persistence of oppression.

The author’s answer to dealing with oppression in Ethiopia is establishing genuine multiparty democracy, and he explores various “ways” of doing just that. He argues the essence of democracy is to create a government based on consent and legitimacy. Past experiments trying to establish democracy in Ethiopia based on class struggle, identity politics, the right of secession, etc. have failed. That failure is tied partly to intentional efforts by leaders to prevent the rise of a democratic civic culture and institutions.

The author discusses the principles of direct and representative democracy and their respective (dis)advantages. He explores the distinctions between the trustee (representatives that have sufficient autonomy to deliberate and act in favor of the greater common good and the national interest” and “delegate” models of representation (delegates act only as directed representatives of their  constituency with little autonomy”.

The author’s prescription for Ethiopia is a democracy based on “civic nationalism” (reviewer’s translation; an inclusive consensus-based nationalism that thrives on the values of freedom, tolerance, equality, individual rights, etc.) Democracy based on “group rights” is flawed and ineffective. However, the author underscores the singular importance of maintaining diversity in Ethiopian society and respect for cultural, religious and linguistic integrity and protections. Groups should be free to practice their faiths, use their languages in instruction and exercise their cultural practices.

The author discusses the origins and evolution of ethnonationalism and the politics of “nations, nationalities and peoples” in Ethiopia. He argues the politics of ethnic identity, communalism, sectarianism, etc., have led to conflict, strife and war. They have no place in a 21^st century Ethiopia.

The author does not see insurmountable problems in reconciling civic nationalism with group rights. Indeed, he believes by creating a consensus/civic-nationalism based democracy it is possible to maximize both individual liberties and group rights to cultural, linguistic and religious autonomy.

Medemer provides the philosophical foundation to build a consensus/civic nationalism-based democracy by creating structures and processes that seek to correct past mistakes, build on existing positive accomplishments and generating innovative new ideas for the future. The author suggests much can be learned from Tunisia’s experience in “civic nationalism”[3] which has contributed significantly to the emergence of a stable multiparty democracy.

The author’s prescription for the practical realization of consensus/civic nationalism-based democracy is pursuit of national reconciliation and development of national understanding on critical issues that are important to the majority of the people in Ethiopia. In the past, national reconciliation has been difficult for various reasons including the shrill exhortations of leaders and activists who seek to maintain the status quo of division and antagonisms for personal political or economic gain.

The author is firmly committed to the pursuit of a process of national reconciliation and goes into the details of how that can be achieved. He also explains how a culture of recrimination has undermined the emergence of such a process. He argues the starting point for a consensus/civic nationalism-based democracy in Ethiopia is the building of a long-term political culture and system based on consent, civic engagement, inclusiveness, accountability, transparency, etc. This requires setting up new, independent and viable civic institutions and practices that promote civility, tolerance, rule of law, accountability, transparency, etc. Existing institutions could also be enhanced and improved.

The current system of nepotism and crony capitalism in Ethiopia must be replaced by institutions that ensure equal opportunity for all. The system and structure of patrimonialism (power flows directly from the leader) and neopatrimonialism (use of state resources in order to secure the loyalty of clients in the general population) must be uprooted and replaced by systems, institutions and processes that are founded on economic and social justice.

The author proposes Ethiopians use their commonly shared values that have been the bedrock of their common heritage to develop consensus. Ethiopians have lived in peace and harmony for much of their history. They have shed their blood together against foreign aggression time and again as one people. They share deeply-rooted faith, cultural and family ties.

However, as a preliminary step to developing national consensus, the politics of stagnation (reviewer’s translation; those resistant to change or do not change with change, “sticks in the mud”) and the defeatist malaise that has pervaded Ethiopian society over the past decades must be transformed by a dynamic medemer politics where all have an equal opportunity to engage and contribute. No man, woman or child will be left behind.

The author argues creating strong institutions to support a democratic structure and process  requires significant reforms to existing institutions. The bureaucracy and civil service institutions require major overhaul and professionalization. The bureaucratic culture of  malingering,  indifference to public concerns and needs, the lack of skills and professional capacity, improper political interference and lack of capacity political interference need to be addressed swiftly.

In Ethiopia’s new consensus/civic nationalism-based democracy, there must be a shift from “ruling” (by force, (neo)patrimonialism) to leadership by consent, legitimacy and moral authority. There are many leadership challenges in Ethiopia. Political leaders in the past have failed to forge common goals to focus the people’s energies and attention. Leaders have lacked a broader vision for the society and instead have tried to promote their own self-interests. They have lacked popular support, good will and legitimacy. They do not have moral/social capital or broad popular acceptance. They tend to respond with emotionalism instead of considered judgment. They have little understanding of the public mood and sentiments. They lack self-control.

To have an effective democratic transition, Ethiopians need to adopt affirmative and positive values such as self-initiative, self-awareness, global thinking, ethical behavior (goodness), pursuit of happiness without infringing on the rights of others, goodwill, security, decency, service volunteerism and so on.

The author argues the command economy of the past has failed and the time is ripe to follow free market principles. The role of government in the economy should be limited to encouraging the expansion of the private sector, attracting and supporting  private investment and intervening strategically to strengthen, regulate and create markets. The problem in the past has been excessive state intervention in certain areas and indifference in others. The state should play a decisive role in policy selection, improving the regulatory environment, monetary and fiscal policy.

The author spends a great deal of time discussing Ethiopia’s economic problems and ways of addressing them. He has serious misgivings about the economic legacy of the past quarter century. While Ethiopia has made significant economic gains, the author laments the fact that the price for those gains has been massive debt, runaway government spending, abuse, waste and corruption in the use of public funds. The author recognizes the reality that Ethiopia’s economy is not built on creating opportunities for ordinary people. The massive inequality and maldistribution of wealth inequality, lack of economic justice, rise in the cost of living, etc., in society have roots in an economy based on crony capitalism which only gives lip service to the interests of ordinary people.

The author acknowledges the debt-based economic development has helped a few in particular sectors of the economy. While clients of previous regime have experienced extraordinary improvements in their standard of living, the vast majority of Ethiopians remain in abject poverty. There is massive youth unemployment. Fiscal policy to increase government revenue has not generated sufficient tax revenues. Domestic savings and investments are low and as a result Ethiopia has to depend on foreign sources to cover its balance of payment and foreign exchange deficits. Due to chronic shortages of foreign exchange, Ethiopia is unable to import light industry and mechanize its agricultural sector and basic necessities have to be imported.

The author identifies various reasons for the country’s economic problems. Among these are lack of economic process, a stagnant private sector, lack of coordination between economic actors, lack of markets and good governance, structural obstacles to creating wealth and inability of individuals and groups to effectively participate in the market, lack of knowledge and trust, absence of a level playing field and formal and informal monopoly of markets.

The author perceives a very weak (broken) economic structure in Ethiopia.  Though market and governance deficiencies are critical problems, the main economic culprit fingered is deficiency of process/system (sirat) which incorporates key economic actors, lack of knowledge and confidence in the market economy. The market deficiency is manifest in a variety of ways: imbalances in supply and demand, lack of market information, absence of effective regulatory scheme to prevent concentration of economic power in few hands, a very weak private sector and so on.

The author’s prescription to overcome these problems is to enhance and strengthen the private sector by strategic and limited government intervention. Government can play many critical roles in the economy, e.g. building educational and technological infrastructure, expanding logistics, improvements in the bureaucracy, funding research and development, strengthening accountability structures and transparency processes. Government can correct distortions in the economy through regulation, strategic intervention, fiscal and monetary policy. In the past, there has been too much government interference which has stifled private entrepreneurship. There has been lack of constructive engagement of the private sector, government negligence, incompetence and indifference in various aspects of the economy and lack of good monetary and fiscal policy.

The author argues one of the major areas of economic failure has been management of public development projects which have been plagued by corruption, mismanagement, lack of accountability and transparency. Enhancing and strengthening the administrative structure of public projects is vital. Other problems include crony capitalism, fraud, waste and abuse of resources, lack of systems and processes and coordination of economic and political institutions.

The current  development model must be changed. Manifestly, that is a change from the so-called “developmental state” model led by the state which has created a massive kleptocracy to a medemer economy where the economic rules of the game are fair, transparent and supportive of private entrepreneurship. Ethiopia can no longer afford to pursue old economic theories in an era of globalization and a world economy that is knowledge- and technologically-based. He emphasizes the role of education in general and gives special attention to higher education to drive Ethiopia’s economy. He perceives the lack of technical and technology-based education as one of the major obstacles to economic success. The economy does not create or support technological innovations and technical education in the country is at the lowest level.

The author argues civil society institutions play critical role in the economy and society. There are over three thousand NGOs in the country that can help balance the government and private sectors. Special attention must be  given to the role of youth in the economy in light of the fact that over 70 percent of the population (youth bulge) is under 35 years of age and a much higher percentage live in non-urban areas. He sees a central role for the young small holder farmers. He argues there is much potential economic power in this population. At the core of the economic problems of the country is the inability to provide employment to rural youth who end up migrating to urban areas in search of opportunity.

The author is optimistic Ethiopia can overcome its enormous economic problems if the people practice medemer philosophy and work together in common cause and purpose. Ethiopia has enormous natural resources though they are not developed. Ethiopia has gold, platinum, nickel, copper, gypsum oil and gas which could be responsibly produced. It has substantial livestock population and vast potential for fisheries industry. Ethiopian can become a breadbasket for the rest of Africa given its weather and natural terrain.

Ethiopia has the potential for economic leapfrogging through technology and mechanization. Priority should be given to mechanizing agriculture and improving farming techniques. Industrialization which is now concentrated in the outskirts of urban areas needs to be spread out more evenly.

In the last part of the book, the author addresses medemer principles of foreign policy. He notes the rise of nationalism globally and spread of radical right movements. He discusses the political gains such groups have made in Western countries and the anti-immigrant sentiments feeding the nationalist backlash. He perceives the rise of nationalism as episodic and not as a fundamental shift or political realignment. He believes the world is moving in the direction of medemer and not fragmentation. Globalization and information technology have created a global village. Returning to the old tribal village by retreating to racial, ethnic, identity, ideological and religious is not practical in the 21^st century.

In the field of international relations, the author argues Ethiopia should follow a foreign policy based on medemer principles which include competition and cooperation. He believes building relationships based on trust and mutuality of interests is far more effective than zero sum competition. Ethiopia will take the approach of working collectively with neighbors on common issues over which there is consensus and build trust and understanding to work on other issues. Common issues include peace and regional security. He identifies problems of Ethiopian refuges, exiles and migrant workers and the suffering and challenges they face. The government must take measures to ensure they are treated with dignity and justice.

In the last couple of pages of the book, the author speaks passionately about the role of the diaspora in shaping Ethiopia’s destiny and in citizen diplomacy in their host countries. He sees many roles for diaspora Ethiopians in promoting investments and tourism, channeling remittances through established banking services to increase the country’s foreign exchange reserves and in changing the image of Ethiopia.

Medemer offers thought provoking and compelling arguments and analysis to reimagine and even reengineer Ethiopian politics and economics based on synergy, consensus and cooperation. I suspect those who have find themselves trapped in a time warp of socialist, revolutionary democracy and developmental state ideologies are likely to find the ideas in the book maddening. Those who are not willing to take the time and digest the author’s analysis will latch on a word or phrase and spin it to discredit the ideas. Those who read the book with closed minds and visceral opposition to the author’s political leadership will find the book challenging and thought-provoking. Those who read it with an open mind will find much that is inspiring, compelling and intellectually rewarding.

I have found compelling arguments and analysis in “Medemer”. In future commentaries, I hope to explore specific aspects of medemer philosophy and engage those ready, willing, able in discussions and debates.

POSTSCRIPT: Medemer as the antidote to political, informational and economic entropy in Ethiopia

Entropy (“law of disorder”) is a term in physics (thermodynamics) used to describe/measure molecular disorder or randomness of a system. In nature (universe), there is always a “struggle” between order and disorder.

In Ethiopia today, the Lords of Entropy and Agents of Disorder (The LEAD) are working 24/7  to create chaos, discord, anarchy and lawlessness. They jockey with each other to unleash death, destruction, alarm, fear and loathing.

There are the political LEAD  

The LEAD who were kicked out on their tails after 27 years of operating a barefaced  kleptocracy are licking their wounds to their pride and hanging out in hotels and bars boozed, buzzed and defanged. They spend their stolen billions paying off unemployed youths to engage in ethnic violence and destabilizing criminal activity.

There are the LEAD who are activists-cum-terrorists instigating violence and lawlessness. They use social media to recruit virtual suicide bombers and the conventional media to organize a ragtag thug army.

There are the faceless and nameless invisible LEAD who hide in the bureaucracy and government offices resisting any and all reforms and punishing the public by unleashing hardship and inconvenience.

There are the Chicken Little LEAD who spread rumor and gossip because they believe the sky is falling down their heads.

There are the digital/information LEAD.

These are the social media nitwits and ignoramus LEAD who live in Fakebook, NiTwitterdom and propagate numbing videos of lies, disinformation and hate.

There are social media thug LEAD who call themselves “digital this or that” and coordinate campaigns of lies and disinformation to cause conflict and strife so that their bosses could return to power. (That will happen when hell freezes over and the Prince of Darkness and his lackey demons go ice skating.)

There are the YouTube click bait LEAD who traffic in bad and fake news to score a few pennies from Google. They sensationalize and exaggerate news to terrorize, spread panic, alarm, anxiety, and fears among those who are not internet savvy.

There are the empty barrel, clueless pseudo-intellectual LEAD with the brain power of jellyfish that appear as talking heads on YouTube and such and barf words of hate and division.

The digital LEAD think political power grows out the web pages of Facebook, Twitter and YouTube.

They have neither the capacity nor will to engage in organized political competition or battle of ideas. They hope to exploit the ignorance of the masses with belligerent megalomaniacal words of hate, war and rumors of war.

The unvarnished truth is that the LEAD are a cancer on the Ethiopian body politic. They are  losers in their personal, professional, political and social lives. Having thoroughly messed up their lives, now they want to mess up everybody else’s. They want to drag down everyone into their miserable world of endless gloom and doom. Losers always lose and the LEAD will lose everything.

But there is no need to fear the LEAD. They are all paper tigers, daylight hyenas, barking dogs and crybabies.

They become empowered when we give them attention and show fear.

The LEAD will lead Ethiopia down a path of division and destruction.

But we must always be mindful of this fact: The disorder created by few should be a good reminder to the many what the alternatives are.

In the absence of medemer, the inmates will take over the mental asylum.

Let there be no doubt: Medemer forces will create order regardless of how much the Forces of LEAD try to create disorder.

Medemer is a philosophy for winners.

Medemer is a labor of love. It creates order out of disorder. It brings unity out of division. It is a healing balm on the festering wounds of hate, division and distrust.

Medemer is about hope and confidence in a better future, a brave new Ethiopia.

Medemer is about peace. By practicing medemer philosophy, Abiy Ahmed has won the Nobel Prize for Peace in 2019.  

Medemer is about love, forgiveness and reconciliation.

Medemer is about creating a new national political architecture founded on consensus based civic nationalism and multiparty democracy.

Medemer is in Ethiopia to stay because the alternative is to be enslaved by the LEAD. 

I have made many prophesies over the years that have come to pass.

Here is my prophesy for all LEAD in and out of Ethiopia: “Their sword shall enter into their own hearts, and their bows shall be broken.”

The Lords of Entropy and Agents of Disorder in Ethiopia will be defeated with Medemer philosophy in the final battle of ideas, in the final battle for the hearts and minds of the Ethiopian people!

MEDEMER MESSAGE TO LEAD:

GIVE IT UP.

RESISTANCE  TO MEDEMER IS FUTILE!

=====================

[1] http://almariam.com/2019/03/07/the-praxis-of-medemer-in-the-horn-of-africa/

[2] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_ZZRjGlRyQ&feature=youtu.be

[3] See, e.g. Veronica Baker, “For a state to maintain its democratic status and protect against despotism requires citizens to embrace civic values (the elements of civic culture that train citizens in activism, reason, and engagement) that help them shape their own political lives. The resultant civil society is a natural extension of these individual-held values, expressed collectively to achieve community goals.” https://scholar.colorado.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2212&context=honr_theses

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Shonke village is a 900-year-old settlement on the top of a mountain in Ethiopia’s Amhara region.

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Video – What happened last week in Ethiopia was Genocide committed Jawar Mohamed

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Disputes over power, resources, identity and territory have resurfaced under Abiy Ahmed

The EPRDF also came up with a power-sharing arrangement with the country’s 80 ethnic groups. A new constitution, enacted in 1995, divided the country into nine ethnically-based regions. It also provided for the secession of any region through referendum and the aspiration of any ethnic group to regional status. The Sidama, a southern group of 3.8m people (about 4 per cent of the population), is the latest to push for just that.

When Mr Abiy became leader of this mosaic-of-a-country, he released thousands of political prisoners, lifted bans on political parties (even the ones seeking the state’s violent overthrow) and loosened controls on the media. His push for liberal reform is one reason he won the Nobel. It has come at a cost. “As political space has opened and EPRDF control has weakened all sorts of latent disputes over power, resources, identity and territory have surfaced,” says William Davison of Crisis Group.  The disputes are too numerous to mention. Here are a few: the Amhara, with around 29m people, are at rhetorical war with the Tigrayans over territory. They also resent the Oromo narrative that Amaharans are oppressors who, under Emperor Menelik II in the 19th century, brutally conquered Oromo territory. Tigrayans blame Mr Abiy for purging them from power and are threatening to leave the EPRDF before the elections — which will supposedly be held in May.

In Oromia itself, there has been violence against the Gedeo, a group about 1m strong. The Oromo have clashed with ethnic Somali along the border between their two regions. Mr Jawar and his supporters argue that Mr Abiy, though he is Oromo himself, is seeking to centralise power and trample on the rights of the people whose protests brought him to office.  It is hard to overstate the strength of this “national” feeling. On a trip to Tigray this year, someone asked me if I had been to any other countries. When I naively started reeling off the names of a few, such as France and Kenya, he looked at me as though I were dim. He was referring to other “countries” in Ethiopia, he said.

The concern is that, in seeking to deal with this fierce sub-nationalism, Mr Abiy will ditch his liberal instincts and revert to authoritarianism. There are already signs that is happening, says Mr Davison, who says the government is resorting to internet shutdowns, mass arrests and the use of lethal force. Meanwhile, Mr Abiy is still preaching the philosophy of medemer, an Amharic word meaning strength through diversity. It is a noble sentiment. But last week, protesters in yet another part of the country were burning his book by the same name.

At some point, Ethiopia will need a new political settlement that balances the competing forces of ethnic and national identity. Ethiopia is Africa’s most optimistic story. It is also one of its most precarious.

david.pilling@ft.com

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By  Dawit Wolde Giorgis

A year ago, the people of Ethiopia ecstatically welcomed PM Abiy Ahmed and his colleague Lemma Megersa as peacemakers, unifiers and reformers introducing Ethiopia to a new era of national unity.  He quickly opened up the political space, released prisoners, and made peace with neighboring Eritrea.  However, that euphoric sentiment is now changing to fear and uncertainty largely due to the ethnic conflicts consuming the country.

Most Ethiopians hoped that Ethiopia could make a peaceful transition under the leadership of Ably and Lemma, and the people supported the two leaders wholeheartedly despite Ethiopians’ misgivings about Abiy’s and Lemma’s past involvement in the brutal security apparatus of the Ethiopian People’s Democratic Force (EPRDF).

He still speaks of a peaceful prosperous united Ethiopia with half the population unemployed and ethnic hostility reaching a critical level. People are being slaughtered like animals. Churches are being burnt. Christians are being persecuted. The age old Coptic Church, which has existed and flourished in Ethiopia since the birth of Christ, is now under siege, publicly condemned and publicly declared as a target of the Oromo extremists. Many Coptic churches have been burnt and some asked to leave some areas.

Oromo extremists wanted to show the supremacy of their tribe in the most brutal way reminiscent of the Rwanda genocide. And yet the prime minister did not have the will or the desire to quell the anarchy and bring to justice those who have committed such crimes.  There are as many and perhaps more  political prisoners in the cells across the country than the numbers of prisoners he released when he came to power two years ago. Public meetings and demonstrations are banned for all except for the Oromo ethnic group. Freedom of speech and expression has been curtailed significantly. Arbitrary arrest and detention by government forces has become routine. Non-Oromos across the country live in fear and most have left their rural homes and descended upon the urban areas where they felt they would get protection. But in some of the major cities they are being hunted, imprisoned, harassed and their houses burnt.

PM Ably is no more seen by many as the charming leader and uniting force people have believed he was at the beginning of his tenure. His speeches and particularly the one he made at his first year anniversary of his ascension to power has become a turning point in the optimism people had on PM Ably. He came out as a brutal leader prepared to stifle freedom of expression and dissent. He ranted about the need to control freedom of expression and closing social media. He did not seem to like the criticism directed at him and his polices. Since then he has come out clearly supporting the extreme elements that are creating havoc in Addis and in  every region in Ethiopia.

The Nobel Prize seems to have emboldened his determination to continue giving the image of a peacemaker while pursuing a policy that makes it possible to put his tribe in absolute control of every aspect of life in Ethiopia and  eliminate any resistance through his ruthless rogue forces one of which is led by a man called Jawar Mohamed, the CEO of OMN, a media out let which preaches hate and supremacy of Oromos and violent Muslim extremism.

Jawar Mohamed ,CEO of Oromo Media Network (OMN)

Last April I wrote: “Jawar is an ethnic and religious extreme. He has been caught on tape telling his crowd that he will cut off the heads of Christians. Like the ‘interhamway’ of Rwanda Jawar has recruited young Oromos who call themselves “ keros’ to do the dirty work of killing plundering and creating an atmosphere of fear in the nation.

One writer, Mekuria, writes:  “ It was alarming to see how these youngsters, once thought as intelligent and self controlled were in reality so haplessly uninformed that they showed up in full force to do the bidding of their handlers no questions asked. The image of Kero youngsters brandishing machetes and other homemade weapons was a pitiful sight to see. It reminds me more of the notorious Boko Haram about whom I have written a lot, than the peaceful youngsters with their arms crossed over their heads in protest. That Ethiopians had come to love and appreciate. Kero youngsters are Ethiopians who desire better than being reduced to doing the dirty work of others and getting tarnished in the process. They have camp Jawar to thank for it “ (ECDF)

This month Jawar made up an excuse of being threatened by government security  and mobilized his Kero forces who murdered 78 people,  burnt houses,  established road blocks in several places in the city of Addis Abeba, robbed people and for a few days paralyzed the nation, and yet the Prime Minster personally had nothing meaningful to say about this extraordinary incident except a hollow statement issued by his office. He never stated that criminals will be brought to justice nor did he utter the name Jawar nor his organization. This is an indication that either he is collaborating with the extremist Jawar or is simply incompetent to lead this country to peace and democracy.  It is truly remarkable that the head of state should behave in such a way when the very survival of this nation has become a big question mark.

I laud the courage of the President, Sahle Work  Zewde,  who stated publicly:

“ A red line that we have to draw and respect for the sake of our country and people has been crossed; we all have a role to play to rescue our country from the danger that it is facing. All concerned have to do their part. Let us say a red line should not be crossed” ( Translation from Amharic by Borkena)

The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission has issued a stern statement calling for the Ethiopian government to hold all those responsible for the brutal and shocking killings of innocent citizens (Borkena)

Failed State

With the unfolding situation,  Ethiopia has definitely become a failed state. The new index will reflecting current situation  will show up next year since the fragile state index is an annual ranking of 178 countries. It is still in the group of 22 failed countries in the world. It certainly improved after the release of prisoners and the sense of stability that was created immediately after PM Abiy came to power. But that has changed now.  (Read my last article A Country on the Brinks, April 8, 2019 ). Weak and fragile states are fertile grounds for violence and extremism.  “A State’s failure to provide basic rights, services and security not only contributes to growing inequality, it also creates a vacuum that allows non-state actors to take control over State sovereignty and territory. There is a risk that failed political transitions, with weak institutions, law enforcement and checks and balances provide a fertile ground for violent extremism. Weak States thus create opportunities for the physical location of extremist groups.” ( UNDP, Preventing Violent Extremism)

As I stated in my earlier article a failed state includes:

• Lack of control over armed forces, militias, etc. within the country
• Lack of free participation in politics

.     Lack of control over territory within national borders

• Massive displacements
• Failure to provide public services food health shelter etc.…
• High level of corruption in whatever government does
• High numbers of refugees seeking to leave
• No or poorly functioning economy

Today Ethiopia almost  all the above. The most critical is human security. States fail because they can no longer provide security to the people.  When a state  fails to  provide security it  loses its  legitimacy in the eyes of the public. Millions of Ethiopians  have now started taking necessary steps individually or in groups, including taking the law into their hands. Robbery, including bank robberies, gruesome murder, torture has become so prevalent that media outlets have stopped even reporting unless it is a little different from what is routinely taking place in many parts of Ethiopia.  The government is bankrupt and is unable to provide basic services.  Inflation and unemployment is at its highest in the nations history.  Extreme poverty has driven people to join criminal gangs and violent extremists.

Under these situations, other internal and external interest groups take advantage of the vulnerability of the population and create the conditions of wide spread violence through the supply of armaments money and the radicalization of vulnerable groups. The competition for scarce resources, the lack of security and absence of law and order has created a vacuum of leadership at local and village levels. This vacuum  is being filled by ethnic war lords and criminal gangs easily bought and sold by money some of which is being pumped into Ethiopia by foreign extremist elements. It is to be remembered that the government itself admitted that ISIS is operating in Ethiopia and some people have already been caught with incriminating materials.

Djibouti is emerging as the new regional arms trafficking hub. The small strategically located state acts as a transit location for weapons trafficking between Yemen and northern Somalia through the AMISOM mission among other actors in the trade. The findings are the result of an investigation carried out by EXX Africa (specialist intelligence company that delivers forecasts on African political and economic risk to businesses) in illegal weapons trade in the Horn of Africa. There is equally disturbing weapons smuggling activities across the borders with Sudan as evidenced by reports of the government of Ethiopia

Violent Extremism

The complex security situation in the Horn of Africa and the coastal states  of the Red Sea cannot be defined only by its strategic and geographic location. It is also defined by the resurgence of violent extremism   and other kinds of conflicts, which have complicated the already complex situation in the Horn.  The resurgence of ethnic and religious extremism in Ethiopia will totally alter the political and security dynamics in the Horn of Africa resulting in a security crisis that cannot easily be controlled and probably transform into a proxy war.  The Horn of Africa is the most complex and militarized region in the world and with the destabilization and resurgence of violent extremism,  Ethiopia  will undoubtedly be in a crisis that will severely affect the entire region.  The stakes are high and the players are many.

Radicalization is a phased process in which an individual or a group embraces a radical ideology that can lead to an increased willingness to condone or use violence for political goals. The radicalization process is unique to each individual. Radicalism challenges the legitimacy of established norms and policies. It does not, in itself, lead to violence. Extremism is different from radicalism. Extremists accept violence as a legitimate means for obtaining political goals without necessarily exercising violence. Terrorism or violent extremism encompasses violent behaviors that originate in an ideology shared by a limited group of individuals. Violent extremism includes the willingness as well as training, preparation and the actual conduct of violent acts against civilians. Terrorists show a severe disconnects from society and tend to devalue or dehumanize their victims.

( European Forum for Restorative  Justice)  

What we see in Ethiopia today are signs of radicalization and extremism.

The number one driver ‘push factor’, to violent extremism is poverty and unemployment.  Poverty pushes people towards radical and extremist ideas and inequality makes the poor more receptive to violent propagandas.  The recruits of violent extremists are uneducated and unemployed and being radicalized is a response to a government or political system that they consider illegitimate and one that has not addressed their basic needs.  Social media drives radicalization. But it is the narratives of the extremist Oromo leaders that is the main factor in the creation of violent extremism. ‘Pull factors’ include the extremist leaders promising   material, emotional or other benefits specifically owning larger territories so far held  (according to their narratives) by the Amharas and other ethnic groups and controlling the political and economic power of the country. They promise to bring more prosperity and entitlements to the Oromo people. They play on their dreams, needs, their fears and fantasies. They make them feel that they will get whatever they want to.

The promises they make are based on false narratives of their history, a history that makes the Oromos the perpetual victims  of oppression and marginalization. This was partly true up until 1976 when the then government known as the “dergue” declared a radical land reform, which enabled the Oromos to be landowners. Since then the problems that the Oromos have faced were no different from what the rest of the population has endured.  But the extremist leaders continue coming up with narratives that infuriate and motivate the young, the poor, the ignorant and the restless to join their call for violence to achieve an incomprehensible goal.  They join these criminal   groups voluntarily owing to the appeal of a group-based identity,  poverty, perceptions of exclusion and cultural threats and  other real or perceived  grievances and  the promise of economic empowerment .  By holding a machete or an AK 47 and being able to use it at will with impunity gives them power and control over others. This also gives them an opportunity to rob people of their belongings. In the process the government looses complete control and the warlords take over areas with fierce battles over turf and followers.

This crisis is the making of the Prime Minister who is more of a showman and a stooge of extremists rather than a leader with substance and grand strategy for peace and development in Ethiopia and the region. His intention was to create a modified version of the current political system and create a perception of change and maintain the status quo in a disguised form. That approach did not work and has not been fully accepted even by his own constituency

This stalemate has  created a crisis which requires the urgent intervention of the AU, the United Nations, and the European Union to ensure stability in Ethiopia,  but more importantly to ensure regional stability and prevent violent extremism from taking over the country and the region with global security implications. The instability of a country with a population of over 100 million will have far reaching consequences on every country in the region; and Europe should be bracing for the migration of millions.

Commenting on the Burmese politician Aung San Suu’s Nobel Prize for Peace, Hamid Dabashi, the Hagop Kevorkian Professor of Iranian Studies and Comparative Literature at Columbia University, had this to say: “The widely documented slaughter of Muslims in Myanmar and Aung San Suu Kyi’s callous disregard for their fate and even possible political collusion with the mass murderers now leaves no doubt that even if she originally deserved the Nobel Peace Prize, she most certainly no longer does. The world at large cannot be at the mercy of the Nobel Peace Prize spectacle to bestow such spectacular honor on a person and then wash its hands of the subsequent actions of these people. “

The public relations skill of Prime Minster Abiy Ahmed and his pathological lies did not give space to the international community to see the magnitude of the crimes that are being committed by the government security forces and vigilante mobs which people believe is organized with the knowledge of PM Abiy Ahmed.   Professor Dabashi asks,  “ Does this shameless power monger deserve to carry the title of a “Nobel Peace Prize laureate? Today Aung San Suu Kyi must be the single most embarrassing name on the roster of the Nobel Peace Prize recipients.” Under siege and under fire, Ethiopians are asking this same question today about their leader, Abiy Ahmed, the winner of the 2019 Nobel  Prize for Peace.

This is an early warning for Africa, Europe and America to brace themselves  for the influx of millions of Ethiopians and others  in the region, fleeing  their countries to seek asylum and protection. People with no options will trek the Sahara once again and seek freedom and protection at the gates of Europe and dare the Mediterranean. 2016 proved a record year for persons who crossed an international border seeking humanitarian space. This year or next year this record could be broken when the political violence in the Horn of Africa triggers an unprecedented human tragedy unless necessary measures are taken to stop this madness in Ethiopia.

“ Twenty years after the Rwanda genocide, where “ the consequences of failing to heed the warning signs were monumentally horrifying” the world must respond early to the risk of mass atrocities amid mounting religious and ethnic polarization, “ a United Nations special event warned in 2014.

Is the world heeding this early warning or is it going to ignore it once again and allow a horrifying civil war, the likes of  which Africa has never experienced, emerge in Ethiopia? It can be stopped because most Ethiopians want peace and peaceful coexistence. Ethiopians expect the international community to live up to its words of “ Never Again” in the aftermath of the holocaust and the Rwandan genocide.

The post Violent Extremism and the Warning Signs of Civil War Ethiopia Today appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News/Breaking News:.

By Tibebe Birihan 

After a good fresh start when taking the helm a year and half ago, PM Abiy seemed to be destined to unify and pacify the country tormented by TPLF looting gangs for close to 30 years. Those who thought he was the answer to their prayers elevated him to the status of sainthood. They took him as a savior and the man to lead them to the Promised Land. A year and half later, things do seem not as rosy as once thought.

His reluctance to decisively deliver a blowing punch to the bleeding TPLF nose at the outset coupled with his invitations of unsavory ethnic opportunists to the country is now setting the stage for a bloody confrontation. His unwittingly appointing diehard ethnic cadres to the detrimental positions in the federal structure and, sidelining those who served as stepping stone for his ascent is now compounding the problems that he has to deal with. His anger and agitation against the “Balderas” movement and his haste in declaring as a coup what transpired in Bahirdar, further fuels the perception of him as having antipathy to the genuine Ethiopianist blocks.

While he is practically doing everything possible to transfer power to the hands of his ethnic party, his base unfortunately is embroiled with what he has to say as the leader of the country. They are vying to hear hatful and condescending speech targeting the Amara people for the base’s ephemeral pleasure like Meles Zenawi habitually used to do.

The Jawarian Qerros are now emboldened by the frequent tolerance and inaction exhibited by the security establishments while they criminally break the rule of law. They seem to think that they are the only ones who have the rights to do anything without accountability and often times get away with it. This must have created the impression in the mobs mentality that they can go even further to claim the helm and bestow it on their imagined true leader, aka Jawar. One can clearly conclude these intentions after observing the down down Abiy slogans and the burnings of his Medemer books at every gatherings of the mob that calls itself Qerro.

The PM frequently makes the case that democracy is messy and we, as a country are trying to emerge from the past authoritarian and dictatorial rules there by, tolerance is needed. However, one could easily argue against these premises by simply pointing the facts how his administration is dealing with other civic movements in the country, Balderas being the primary case in point. His administration also goes out of its way to apprehend members of NAMA by desperately trying to relate them to the unfortunate event of June 15^th in Bahir Dar.

Suffice to say, the PM is now facing a formidable egoistic foe that is never to be satisfied short of replacing him. The opposition from the Oromo base against the PM is so intense and wide that it won’t be an easy task to do business as usual. What seems to be fueling the anger against the PM by his base is the discharging of the duties and responsibilities by the PM as the leader of the country, which seems to be going against the Oromo first manta of the ethnic extremists.  These inherent contradictions are created by the very structural problems that the country is said to have been federalized. One can’t satisfy two masters at the same time with same degree of loyalty. This vexed question of maintaining equilibrium is never the true objective of those who crafted such a system

The prime minister could have balanced the influence of the leaders of the Qerro movement by equally and practically empowering the Ethiopianist forces. These forces are huge in following but mostly silent and shying away from the limelight. The constant and unrelenting campaigns against these forces by the TPLF regime and the extreme ethnic zealots have created the appearance that such forces are relegated to irrelevance. The PM could still not only orally but practically show his stand with Ethiopia and for Ethiopia in such a way by creating the level field for such forces to operate freely and democratically. Short of that, PM Abiy is now becoming the victim of his own making.

The writer could be reach at @tbirihan@yahoo.com

The post The PM Abiy administration’s Conundrum appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News/Breaking News:.

By Belayneh Abate

Like many other countries, Ethiopia has been inundated with intellectual prostitutes for the last half a century. These intellectual prostitutes are promoting the leaders of the Ethiopian Peoples Democratic Front (EPRDF) even at this juncture, when the ongoing ethnic cleansing of Amara is escalated to genocide throughout the country.

As we know, the Amara genocide perpetuators are hosted by EPRDF, a criminal organization that has been massacring, torturing and displacing Amaras for more than three decades. The intellectual prostitutes are acting as if they do not know the unholy EPRDF leaders “baptized” the genocide commanders and their mencha-soldiers.

It is historical fact and general knowledge that EPRDF was established to implement a jungle manifesto that falsely labelled Amaras as oppressors. Since this jungle manifesto became a “constitution”, EPRDF has killed more Amaras than the Hutus killed Tutsis during the Rwanda genocide.

In Rwanda, ethnic Hutus killed not only their neighbor Tutsis but also their Tutsi wives.[1] We have watched similar tendencies in Harergie, Bale, and Arusi provinces of Ethiopia this past week. Despite these dangers, many prostitute intellectuals are trying to shrug off the danger and cover up the Amara genocide with religious blankets.

Instead of naming it Amara genocide, they are calling it a religious conflict although the barbaric killers were chanting the EPRDF’s code for Amara- “get out nefitegna”.  To make the danger worse, the prostitutes are turning every stone to exonerate Abiy Ahmed, who is providing luxurious boarding and body guards for the perpetuators of the genocide. Even after Abiy (the phony prophet of addition) and Lemma (the fake pastor of addiction) said they will continue to work with the genocide commanders, the intellectual prostitutes are making the beds to sleep with these pastors of additions and addictions.

For the intellectual prostitutes of Ethiopia, sleeping with a criminal ruler is not new.  In 1991, when the Western and Arab backed Legesse Zenawi took power, many intellectual prostitutes bowed to his feet and served him like a jackass although he made the country land locked and cracked the country into ethnic lines and controlled the people like herds of cattle in barns.

Served by prostitute intellectuals, Zenawi’s EPRDF conducted ethnic cleansing of Amaras in Bedeno, Arbagugu, Arsi Negele, Adebabay Eyesus of Gondar and other places. [2-4] Legesse Zenawi slept with these intellectual prostitutes until he got enough of them and threw them like pieces of toilet paper. This fact heralds that even Satan despises intellectual prostitutes and hates to sleep with them forever.

Now, the same and similar intellectual prostitutes are engaged in the same type of prostitution with the political son of Legesse Zenawi. As anyone can imagine, the worst kind of prostitute is a prostitute that performs prostitution with the father and the son. The son, Abiy Ahmed, was a loyal spy and cadre of his father Legesse Zenawi. As it had been seen, Zenawi never promoted and appointed cadres, who do not exhibit strong hate for Amara or show deep love affairs to their stomachs. Despite these facts, the intellectual prostitutes fell in love with the Legesse’s son, who served as the director of his spy agency.

As most Ethiopians fully understand, the spy agency is responsible for the vanished 2.4 million Amaras, for the massacred thousands, for the tortured thousands, for the displaced millions and for the disappeared thousands. Zenawi rarely left his office to confine or kill people: It was his spies, who trapped millions through licking people’s ears and telephone wires.

Despite these historical facts, the intellectual prostitutes considered the spy as Mosses and worshiped him as a messenger of God merely because he mischievously said, “we are Ethiopians both in life and death”.  The intellectual prostitutes trusted the former spy more than the patriarchs and popes trust God.  Some consider him as their heart, others as their lungs. Some volunteered to serve as his propagandists and others as personal assistants. They nominated him for peace prize and danced with him for the prize. The anti-EPRDF party leaders dined with the criminal EPRDF leaders betraying and making their fighter comrades homeless.

The intellectual prostitutes forgot that their mosses participated in splitting Ethiopia into pieces, and in massacring and torturing of its citizens. The intellectual prostitutes forgot the victims of EPRDF including Asefa Maru, Asrat Woldeyes, Samuel Awoke, and many other martyrs in Wolkayit, Raya, Gondar, Gambella, Metekel, Ogaden, Bahirdar, Ambo, Debre-Brehan, Woldya, Debretabor, Bure, Dangla, Magete, Awasa and so on.

Abyote Ahmed will sleep with these intellectual prostitutes until he gets tired and throw them into trash cans as his father Legesse rightly did. In fact, he has already started since he has accomplished what his father achieved in 25 years just in one year. Like his father, the copy-cat Abyote, allowed his cousins to rob banks, he monopolized key government positions, the military, the police, the spy agency, the economy and the national medias.

Intellectual prostitutes always use forgiveness as excuse to justify their adulterous lives. Only devil knows who the hell these intellectual prostitutes are to forgive on the behalf of the dead souls. Even the beloved wife of Assefa Maru and his children do not have the supreme power to forgive on the behalf of martyr Asefa Maru. Even the children of the martyr professor Asrat do not have the highest power to forgive on the behalf of the giant martyr Asrat Woldeyes. Even the loving mother of Samuel Awoke, who raised a magnificent son of profound dignity, does not have the ultimate power to forgive on the behalf of a hero who lost his life at a very young age.

As “intellectuals”, these prostitutes know today’s generation is based on yesterday’ generation, and tomorrow’s is based on today’s generation. However, the intellectual prostitutes do not care about these binding chains and the dead souls as long as their prostitution adventure makes their infidel lives luxurious.

Amaras have been living in darkness for the last 50 years because intellectual prostitutes sided with their killers. Even at this critical time, when different forms of Amara genocides are intensifying, these intellectual prostitutes are preventing Amaras from organizing and defending themselves.

The Amaras shall understand that intellectual prostitutes are predisposing them to full blown genocides. The Amaras should realize that the intellectual prostitutes are thwarting them from standing united to defend themselves from the ongoing physical, economic, cultural, spiritual, educational and reproductive genocides.

Furthermore, the Amaras should understand that the worst intellectual prostitutes are the Amara- intellectual prostitutes because they are contributing for the demise of their own progenies. The Amaras should completely stop listening to the prostitutes and stand united to resist the ongoing multifactorial genocides. The Amaras should defy the intellectual prostitutes, who are inadvertently promoting Amara genocides!  Thank you.

End notes:

1. Rwanda genocide: 100 days of slaughter,https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-26875506
2. Amara Genocide in Bedeno Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EcZJIfUkx9M
3. Amara Masscre in Arba gugu video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A3v9jcDAmDI
4. Amaras displaced from everywhere ESAT Radio https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMw4dzDFRvU

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The writer can be reached at abatebelai@yahoo

The post Inadvertently, the Intellectual Prostitutes Are Promoting Amara Genocides! appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News/Breaking News:.

Ethiopian running legend Haile Gebrselassie has told the BBC that fake news shared on Facebook was behind violence in which 78 people died.

Trouble was sparked when an influential activist from the Oromo ethnic group, Jawar Mohammed said the authorities were endangering his life by removing his bodyguards.

The violence had ethnic and religious elements, the government said.

Gebrselassie said he could sue Facebook if they fail to remove certain posts.

The double Olympic champion was not explicit about which posts he was referring to, but told the BBC in the capital Addis Ababa that “fake news is easy to spread”.

Referring to the death toll, the 46-year-old added that “the main cause I believe was Facebook”.

I know my people, they don’t do such awful things”

Days of violence in Ethiopia’s Oromia region, which saw some people sheltering in churches, followed the accusations made on Facebook by Mr Jawar.

The police initially denied that it put his life in danger, but Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed later indicated that the police had acted incorrectly.

Graphic images, purporting to show the results of the trouble, began to circulate on social media.

Gebrselassie said he thought the pictures were not of Ethiopians. “I know my people, they don’t do such awful things,” he said.

‘Ethiopia should be careful’

Some fake videos had been shared, including one of a claim that a local official was arming young men, the BBC’s Kalkidan Yibeltal in Addis Ababa says.

Despite calls by the Nobel Peace Prize winning prime minister for unity, ethnic tensions are threatening to spill out of control.

Gebrselassie, who is now a successful businessman, warned that Ethiopia has “to be careful” saying that the genocide in Rwanda was not that long ago.

He also mentioned the conflicts in Libya, Syria and Yemen as examples of what could happen if things get out of hand.

The authorities have arrested more than 400 people in connection with October’s violence and the trouble has subsided.

Facebook has not responded to Gebrselassie’s accusations, but the company has a policy of “working to fight the spread of false news”.

BBC

The post Ethiopia violence: Facebook to blame, says runner Gebrselassie appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News/Breaking News:.

Pope Francis Sunday asked for prayer for persecuted Orthodox Christians in Ethiopia, who have been targeted in ongoing ethnic clashes that have left 78 people dead.

“I am saddened by the violence of which Christians of the Tewahedo Orthodox Church of Ethiopia are victims,” Pope Francis said in his Angelus address Nov. 3.

“I express my closeness to this beloved church and her patriarch, dear brother Abune Mathias, and I ask you to pray for all the victims of violence in that land,” he said.

Since violent protests broke out in Ethiopia’s Oromia region Oct. 23, more than 400 people have been arrested and 78 have died, according to the office of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

The Orthodox Christian community has been a target of violence in Oromia. A church official told AFP Africa that 52 Orthodox Ethiopians, including two church officials, have been killed in the violence since the protests began in October.

Hand grenades were thrown into churches in Bale Robe and Dodola, and the homes and businesses of Christians have been set on fire, according to local Ethiopian Borkena news.

The Patriarch of the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church Abune Mathias delivered a speech Oct. 28 calling for peace and grieving the dead.

“I carry a cross in my hand, not a gun. My children, I am tearfully praying to our God about your suffering. I am also continuing to plead with the government,” Mathias said, according to local Ethiopian media.

“Today I am deeply grieved. I have the urge to weep like a child … In the hopes day to day for improvement, we have been asking the government to put a stop to it. However we have seen nothing change,” the patriarch said.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was awarded the 100th Noble Peace Prize in October for leading peacekeeping efforts to end the 20-year conflict with neighboring Eritrea. Violent protests began within Ethiopia less than 2 weeks after.

The protests were sparked by an allegation by political activist Jawar Mohammed that the Ethiopian government had attempted to arrest him.

The Holy Synod of the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church met with Ethiopian government officials to Oct. 26 to call for peace and dialogue in the face of the violence. The Ethiopian Orthodox Church also called for three days of prayer and fasting for peace.

“God is with us,” Orthodox priest Markos Gebre-Egziabher said at a memorial service Oct. 26 for Christians killed in Addis Ababa, according to AFP.

“If they come with machetes, we will go with crosses,” Father Markos said.

The Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church is the largest of the Oriental Orthodox Churches. These Churches reject the 451 Council of Chalcedon, and its followers were historically considered monophysites – those who believe Christ has only one nature – by Catholics and the Eastern Orthodox.

Pope Francis met with Ethiopian Orthodox Patriarch Abune Mathias in Feb. 2016, and expressed his condolences for the Ethiopian Christians executed by Islamic State militants in Libya in April 2015.

In an emotional speech Oct. 28, Patriarch Mathias told his persecuted community in Ethiopia:

“While I was preaching to you about peace, those that do not know peace have deprived you of peace. My children, do not hold a grudge on me. Do not think I am silent to your plight. I always weep for you. Lord, send your Judgement, or come down to us.”

The post Pope Francis asks for prayer for persecuted Christians in Ethiopia appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News/Breaking News:.

After spate of violence, prime minister calls on Ethiopians to resist ‘forces’ threatening to impede progress.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has said the death toll from protests last month stood at 86, calling on citizens to resist “forces” threatening to impede progress in the country

Rallies against Abiy, this year’s Nobel Peace Prize laureate, erupted in the capital, Addis Ababa, and other parts of the Oromia region on October 23 after a high-profile activist and media mogul accused security forces of trying to orchestrate an attack against him – a claim police denied.

The threat of intra-ethnic strife in Ethiopia PM Abiy Ahmed warns Ethiopia ethnic violence could worsen Ethiopia: Youth gather at Jawar Mohammed’s house to show support “We have to stop those forces who are trying pull us two steps back while we are going one step forward,” Abiy told a news conference with local news organisations broadcast by state-affiliated Fana Broadcasting on Sunday.

The dead included 50 members of the Oromo ethnic group, the country’s largest, while 20 were from the Amhara ethnic group, the second-largest.

Abiy also provided a religious breakdown of the victims – 40 were Christians, 34 were Muslims and the rest belonged to other religions.

ALJ

The post Ethiopia’s Abiy says protests’ death toll rises to 86 appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News/Breaking News:.

November 3, 2019
by Emmanuel Yirdaw

Under the late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, the EPRDF ruling coalition diagnosed two existential threats: a perpetuation of poverty and a lack of accommodation of ethnic diversity. To survive state collapse and prosper, EPRDF ideologues argued, Ethiopia needed a system that respected ethnic diversity and delivered rapid economic growth. Revolutionary democracy was the vanguard party ideology designed to achieve this.

To address poverty, revolutionary democratic state-building justified the rapid expansion of the party-state into all spheres of Ethiopia’s socio-cultural and -economic fabric. Recognizing the forces of the global market economy, the Ethiopian state also assumed the role of stimulating growth. The Democratic Developmental State (DDS) was the name given to this form of dirigisme. This was justified on the grounds that rapid economic growth and development must be relatively egalitarian, with a focus on agrarian transformation and industrialisation.

Addressing ethnic diversity, revolutionary democracy focused on group rights and offered recognition to historically marginalized communities. It attended to the weight of long struggles for recognition by various ethnic groups in Ethiopia. The constitution and the ethnic-based federal system adopted in 1995—the culmination of ethnic liberation fronts overthrowing the unitary Derg regime—are evidence of this.

Both the DDS and Revolutionary Democracy contain the word ‘democracy.’ However, the way democracy was defined by EPRDF ideologues was different from the liberal sense. While liberal democracy sees elections, political freedom, and other related rights as ends, revolutionary democracy sees them as a means to an end. That is, democracy can be guaranteed if, and only if, economic growth and just representation of group rights are achieved.

Along this road to democracy, EPRDF considered constitutionally enshrined rights to self-rule for minority ethnic groups as evidence of the democratic nature of its system. Also, ‘democracy’, on its terms, partly referred to the mass mobilisation of farmers for ‘developmental’ and political activities, and also described the EPRDF’s party-culture of internal deliberation and evaluation (e.g. gimgema). As much as EPRDF claimed it was committed to parliamentary democracy, it was clear that, over the last decade at least, it was against democratic movements that might infringe upon the economic growth achieved through the DDS model. Developmentalism was untouchable, and beyond the scope of democracy.

From Meles’ ‘Dead End’ to Abiy’s ‘New Horizon’

After authoritarian development hit the rocks, Ethiopia needs a concerted democratic approach to escaping poverty. But freedom has its own constraints.

This is captured in Meles Zenawi’s conversation with Alex de Waal, where he said: “Let’s be clear what we mean when we talk about democracy: it must be a democracy of real choices. If we allow unfettered political competition today, the rent-seekers will be able to offer far more to the voters than a developmental party can.” And, “That kind of democracy isn’t offering real choices. What would be a real choice is between different paths to value-creating development. We could have a dominant party system, as we have today, with different views expressed within the party. Or we could have competition between two parties, each of them subscribing to a hegemonic developmentalism… .” This, clearly, is an understanding of democracy distinct from the one offered by liberal democracy.

But more recently, it seems, liberal democracy is gaining unprecedented support in Ethiopia. The support is observed not just among an urban elite, but also among the poor and those in rural areas, although perhaps it is too soon to distinguish their enthusiasm for a new system from their desire for change from the old one. Calls for political liberties, genuine parliamentary democracy, and related democratic reforms are common. Even those participating in what can be captured as “identity politics” seem committed to such liberal reforms. Internally, EPRDF is also embracing it under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.

Adopting liberal democracy in Ethiopia has unpredictable implications. In part, this is because Ethiopia, in its long history, has never had a system close to it. However, at least two things can be said with conviction. First, the DDS model—which brought unprecedented economic transformation—is being altered into a more liberal, free-market economy: a move from Meles’ ‘dead-end’ to Abiy’s ‘new horizon.’ Second, the struggle for recognition faces an uphill stretch.

Arguably, liberal democracy will not be able to satisfy the long struggle for recognition by various Ethiopian nations. But before examining that, what exactly is the concept of “struggle for recognition?” And, how can we understand the Ethiopian version?

The Struggle for Recognition

To grasp the concept, we can trace its intellectual origin back to Phenomenology of Spirit, a work by the 19th Century German philosopher Friedrich Hegel. Here, it is the 20th century French-Russian political theorist of Hegel’s work, Alexander Kojeve, who will help us understand Hegel’s theory of recognition through his book Introduction to the Reading of Hegel.

For Hegel, humans have a natural desire for recognition. Hegel’s first man—i.e. before the formation of society—forces another man to recognize him. Since both have an innate desire to be recognized, they immediately get into a struggle for recognition. Hegel’s man is attacking the other man just for recognition. After winning the battle, Hegel’s man can exploit the other, take his property, and so on. However, the primary goal of the attack was achieving recognition. Therefore, for Hegel’s man, being recognized as a superior by the other has more significance than using him for material gain.

Federalist façade for centralist front

Despite TPLF probing, an incoherent EPRDF staggers on. More jostling looks likely, as the Prime Minister tries to cobble together a centrist alliance.

Man risks his physical well-being, economic well-being, and even his life in the fight for recognition. In fact, for Hegel, this is what makes us human. Animals, always being interested in their physical well-being, never get into a fight for mere recognition, only for material gain; or for status, which leads to material gain. Man, however, has this unique freedom to act against his animal desire of self-preservation and risk his life for recognition.

This is why we should not primarily think about the economic interests of a group fighting for recognition. They may gain a desirable material outcome, but such gains are incidental, not essential. In major, historical examples of ‘struggles for recognition’, such as the civil rights and feminist movements, a desire to be recognized as an equal played an essential role. In these movements the fight was for a group’s dignity, equality, respect, being considered a fellow human, and other related concepts of recognition. Neither African-Americans nor women merely fought for a more just distribution of economic goods or better income. Their fight, primarily, was for recognition of their equal worth.

The struggle for recognition in Ethiopia

Nonetheless, such struggles are easily confused with quests for a more just distribution of goods. Analyzing, say, the question of Sidama statehood or Oromo’s fight for the recognition of Addis Abeba as the capital city of Oromia from an economic perspective is common. But when an Oromo is outraged about the fact that their language is not used as a federal language; when a Sidama is not happy with the lack of Sidama statehood, when smaller groups were granted their own regions; or, when any other person from a particular ethnic group raises similar questions, they are not talking about economic well-being. It is recognition that they are talking about. Where is the direct economic benefit, for instance, in the strong demand of the Oromo people for Adama not to be called Nazreth?

The 1960s student revolutionaries, who gave form to the now prevalent and sometimes ugly identity politics in Ethiopia, did not confuse questions of recognition with economic ones, although, as Marxists, they highlighted economic injustice. Their call for radical land reform—“land to the tiller”—captures the economic question. But as much as they wanted to see the end of the exploitation of powerless tenants by their landlords in the gabbar system go away, they also understood the weight of the ‘question of nations’: a question of recognition.

Surprisingly, given the time passed, today’s identity politics revolves around similar questions. The revolutionary students’ point was clear: Ethiopia is a nation that does not recognize the diversity of identities that it has due to the cultural hegemony of Orthodox Christian highlanders. Walleligne Mekonnen, in his influential article On the Question of Nationalities in Ethiopia, wrote, “to be an Ethiopian, you will have to wear an Amhara mask.” This captured the core thesis the students wanted to negate. It also captures what many of those participating in identity politics today think they want to achieve: being able to take off what they believe is the Amhara mask and make sure their authentic identity is recognized in the Ethiopian sphere.

         Liberal democracy?

In The End of History and The Last Man, Francis Fukuyama argued that liberal democracy is a political system that has the ability to solve the problem of recognition. But, why did he say that? And will liberal democracy adequately cater for Ethiopia’s nations’ long struggle for recognition? To answer, we must go back to Hegel and Kojeve.

Hegel’s man gets into a fight with another man for mere recognition. The other man refuses to fight because he wants to preserve his life—he is a slave of self-preservation, like other animals. So, he submits to Hegel’s man and starts recognizing him as his Master. Now, we have a Master and a Slave. The Slave keeps recognizing his Master, but the Master does not recognize him back. This way, the Master’s desire to be recognized is fulfilled.

Soon, however, the Master will realize his desire to be recognized is not really satisfied. The Slave is an animal (an object) and the Master is not satisfied with the recognition that he gets from this non-human. As Kojeve puts it, “[t]he Master, therefore, was on the wrong track. After the fight that made him a Master, he is not what he wanted to be in starting that fight: a man recognized by another man.” At this point, he will look for another man to satisfy his need for recognition. But, again, the moment he defeats the man and makes him his Slave, the Slave ceases to be a human. He keeps going to many, many fights for recognition, but will never be satisfied.

The Master and Slave relation ceases to exist

This is true of the old kings and emperors, from Ethiopia and elsewhere, who would get into fights for mere recognition. The conquest does not really bring anything useful to them. In fact, it is usually a risky move. Nonetheless, they do it. The slaves are also unsatisfied. The reason for their dissatisfaction is clear: they are not being recognized. Just because they were defeated at the battle, it does not mean their desire to be recognized has vanished. They will try to get it by various means, such as revolution. Therefore, this Master-Slave relationship is never stable. This Hegelian reading of History indicates that the Master-Slave dialectic is what leads to revolutions, wars, the creation and destruction of empires, and the adoption of new political ideologies. In short, it is the instability in the relationship between the Master and the Slave that moves History.

What, then, is the solution? How can both the Master and the Slave satisfy their desire to be recognized? Kojeve writes, “Man can be fully realized and revealed—that is, be definitively satisfied—only by realizing a universal recognition… .” The Master must recognize the slave in order to receive recognition from a human—not a slave degraded to the status of an animal/object. The Slave will also satisfy his desire for recognition; he finally gets recognition from the Master. At this point, the Master and Slave relation ceases to exist.

This is where Fukuyama comes into the picture. He claims that liberal democracy is a system in which mutual recognition will be realized. All political systems from the primitive hunter-gatherer society to slave-owning societies, from imperial to colonial structures, from feudalism to theocracies, and from Nazism to communism have been tried and failed due to the unsolved Master-Slave contradiction. However, liberal democracy, due to the liberty and equality it affords to all, seemed to be a system in which the Master-Slave contradiction is solved. Recognition is afforded to all. Inevitably, sooner or later, the world will accept liberal democracy. And, when this happens, it will be The End of History, Fukuyama said, echoing Hegel.

From this, it follows that countries such as Ethiopia can solve the problem of recognition by adopting some form of liberal democracy. However, we should carefully scrutinize Fukuyama’s thesis. In principle, liberal democracy is committed to guaranteeing two things for all: liberty and equality. Yet it does not give adequate attention to the struggle for recognition by various groups for at least two reasons.

First, in political liberalism, it is liberty that usually takes the upper hand in the contest between liberty and equality. Although alluring, liberty does not provide a proper framework for compensating groups that suffered injustice. Saying, for instance, equal liberty to all Ethiopians will be afforded from now on does not make life any better for those who are poor or suffered through historical injustice, and, consequently, are unable to exercise their liberty. While the privileged are given a free rein to convert their existing advantages into ever-increasing superiority.

Second, even when liberal democracy gives equality a deserved attention, it focuses on economic equality and a more just distribution of wealth. As we have seen, however, economic questions such as the quest for a more just distribution of wealth are not at the heart of many groups’ struggles. Rather, it is ‘recognition’ that they are primarily fighting for; a socio-cultural concept, difficult to be captured by a liberal democratic paradigm that focuses on tangible economic matters.

Criticizing liberal theorists of justice in her book Justice and the Politics of Difference, Iris Marion Young writes, “[t]here are many claims about justice and injustice in our society which are not primarily about the distribution of income, resources, or positions. A focus on the distribution of material goods and resources inappropriately restricts the scope of justice.” It is this restricted conception of justice that makes liberal democracy unable to resolve problems of recognition. Therefore, it seems fair to say, liberal democracy, even when focusing on economic equality, cannot sufficiently address the ‘struggle for recognition.’

Ethiopia’s march towards liberal democracy

It must be understood that Ethiopia’s revolutionary democracy was not a system that was intended to stay in place forever. It represented a necessary stage of development before liberal democracy. The model’s objective is making sure that Ethiopia is not poor when the inevitable move towards liberal democracy is initiated. Again, to quote Meles, “we can’t have democracy with an empty belly.”

Looking at today’s openness to liberal democracy in Ethiopia, one might ask, “is our belly finally full?” The answer is a resounding “no”. While it is true that Ethiopia’s growth for the past decade and a half has been astonishing, poverty is still prevalent. Middle-income status, which, according to Meles and the old EPRDF, is a necessary condition that guarantees sustainable growth, has not been achieved. It is clear then that the reason for a shift towards liberal democracy is, to rephrase Meles, the inability to contain the people’s demand. For two reasons, I think this move towards liberal democracy has a very thin possibility of providing mutual recognition in Ethiopia, and, accordingly, rendering ‘identity politics’ unimportant.

The 21st century does not bode well for liberal democracy

Generally, the 21st century does not bode well for liberal democracy—it is in retreat. From Hungary to Poland, from the U.K. to the United States, and from Italy to Sweden, nationalism and ethno-identity politics are on the rise. Fukuyama himself has partially admitted this. In his new book Identity, he puts forward the view that modern liberal democracies have not fully solved the problem of recognition. If historically liberal countries are having a hard time solving the problem of recognition, what reason do we have to think that liberal democracy can bring adequate mutual recognition to Ethiopia?

Meanwhile, the internal political situation of Ethiopia is also not encouraging. The liberalization of the political sphere after Abiy Ahmed came to power led to an unprecedented rise in ethnic nationalism and conflict, and the protests that allowed him to take power had a strong ethno-nationalist component. Old questions of nations demanding recognition have resurfaced with a vengeance. Even the Amhara, who, previously eschewed ethnic nationalism, are subscribing to a strong form of it.

It is not clear how a commitment to liberal principles is going to find a middle ground between the opposing forces of Amhara and Oromo nationalisms. How is the Oromo activist demand for Addis Abeba to be under Oromia regional state’s administration going to be solved under a liberal democratic paradigm; and, how about questions of respect and dignity related to symbols such as monuments, statues, and the flag? Under the old EPRDF,  sticking to the constitution, Oromia could have been finally granted its “Special Interest” in Addis Ababa, and internal dialogue within the EPRDF might have struck a balance between the ruling coalition partners from Amhara and Oromia.

Elections in End Times

Elections will be messy. But no elections will be messier.

Related to the above point is the prospect of a democratic election—one of the defining features of liberal democracy. Some may argue that guaranteeing a free and fair election—as anticipated for in 2020—will improve ethnic relationships and solve the problem of recognition. However, even here, one is forced to be suspicious for at least three reasons:

First, the chances of a free and peaceful election are not high. Under the current political climate, conducting an election seems to be a path towards violence, led by ethno-nationalists. Different ethnic groups have the incentive and power to reject the outcome of elections in various areas, potentially leading to either a post-electoral deadlock or conflict.

Second, assuming that a democratic election is conducted, ethno-nationalist parties are likely to win many seats. It is not clear how the parliament and, consequently, the government would then function. For example, it is unreasonable for any observer to think that a parliament in which both the National Movement of Amhara and the Oromo Liberation Front representatives occupy chunks of the chamber is going to be functional in any sense.

Third, assuming that (a) a free, fair, and peaceful election is conducted, and (b) political parties can come to an agreement to form a government, there is a distinct possibility of a majoritarian democracy emerging. This, of course, is through the Oromo and Amhara. Together, these two ethnic groups make up almost two-thirds of the population. In a democratic system, some sort of coalition between the two giants is going to be at the center of decision making. But while trying to make sure their constituents are satisfied and trying to reach a compromise, parties representing the two large groups might infringe on the interests of minorities. Although there are ways of trying to prevent this, it seems impossible to prevent it altogether. This, then, takes us back to the original problem of recognition—this time, for minority ethnic groups.

Another argument in defense of liberal democracy could be from the standpoint of development. That is, it can be argued that liberal democracy will lead us to economic growth, and this, in turn, can lead to deescalating ethnic tension and satisfy the desire for recognition. This is also suspicious because it is not clear that the liberalization of our economy will lead us to any significant growth. Looking at world politics, it seems there is no monopoly on growth by liberal democratic countries. Instead the most remarkable progress has been made recently by the illiberal Chinese system. And Ethiopia, for instance, has achieved high growth and poverty reduction over the past decade under the DDS model.

Also, even if it is the case that liberalizing our economy can lead to prosperity, it is not clear how it will solve the problem of recognition, as economic growth and distributive justice do not provide a complete answer. It is also important to note that populism and nationalism are rising in the developed world. This tells us something important about the possibility of growth deterring the quest for recognition in a country like Ethiopia with historically complicated ethnic relations.

Point of no return

In his visit to Ethiopia earlier this year, Fukuyama said that the old EPRDF’s ways were not the way forward. However, as pointed out by Alemayehu Weldemariam, if we are to follow Fukuyama’s ‘end of history’ thesis, it is not clear why we should ignore Meles’ view that revolutionary democracy is a path that will take us to liberal democracy. However, given that liberal democracy does not seem to guarantee mutual recognition, Fukuyama’s ‘end of history’ thesis should not serve as the framework with which we analyze contemporary Ethiopian politics.

Yet this is not to say that we should ignore and dismiss the current openness to liberal democracy and go back to the old ways. It must not be forgotten that revolutionary democracy and the DDS model were filled with problems. Rent-seeking behaviour and corruption were rampant while debt was getting out of control. There was also the unsolved problem of effectively practising the centrally driven DDS model in an ethnically diverse country. Popular demand for political liberalism could not, by definition, be addressed under a revolutionary democratic paradigm. Furthermore, those who fought for political rights and civil liberties suffered abhorrent human rights abuses while laws such as the anti-terrorism proclamation intimidated the public.

Going back to the old ways also seems unlikely in light of the public demand and Abiy’s seeming determination to pursue democratic reforms. Critiquing revolutionary democracy, Abiy’s new philosophy of ‘medemer’ seems to be broadly a move towards liberal democracy. Although this shift may correct some glaring mistakes of the past, it does not seem to be a paradigm under which mutual recognition amongst ethnic groups will be achieved. Therefore, we ought to be circumspect about this well-intentioned march towards liberal democracy.

Query or correction? Email us

Main photo: The cover of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s book Medemer (‘Synergy’) and former Prime Minister Meles Zenawi

Edited by William Davison and Jonah Wedekind

Published under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International licence. Cite Ethiopia Insight and link to this page if republished. 

Related Insight

Sep. 18, 2018 Domestic despair shadows Abiy’s diplomatic waltz

Oct 21, 2018 Ethiopia: Climbing Mount Uncertainty

Jan. 10, 2019 Ethiopia’s federation needs reviving, not reconfiguring

Feb. 27, 2019  Ethiopian elite lost in electoral maze under Abiy’s gaze

July 24, 2019 Elections in End Times

The post Liberal democracy is no liberator appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News/Breaking News:.

CBNNEWS / Steve Warren

During the past two years since a young prime minister has taken over as the new leader of Ethiopia, more than 30 churches have been attacked with more than half of the buildings burned to the ground.

In addition, clergy and church members have also been killed trying to defend their church buildings against attacks from ethnic mobs.

The churches being targeted belong to the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church (EOTC), which has a long and colorful history in the African nation.

Christianity Today reports Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, a Christian and a member of the Full Gospel Believers Church, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize last month for his “efforts to achieve peace and reconciliation.” But some in the country say the peace prize was premature.

On Monday, Ahmed announced almost 90 people in his country had been killed during the month of October, victims of the unusual unrest and recurring ethnic and religious violence.

Ethiopia is a nation of contrasts. It is one of the world’s most religious countries. Ninety-eight percent of the population claim some kind of religious affiliation, according to the New African Magazine. However, the country has always been marked by ethnic strife.

Last year, Ethiopia’s rate of internally displaced persons exceeded Syria’s. The nation currently leads the world with 2.9 million people displaced by violence, according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center.

“There is a feeling of siege among many followers of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church,” Elias Gebreselassie, a journalist based in Addis Ababa told the magazine. “The burning of churches could lead to a wider distrust within society and could be a time-bomb.”

About half of the population of 100 million claim membership in the EOTC, making it the largest church in the nation. Muslims make up 35 percent of the population with Protestants, Catholics and various tribal religions making up the remaining 15 percent.

At present, Ethiopia does set an example to the world as Christians and Muslims mostly live together in harmony. Intermarriage is common, while both sides recognize and celebrate each other’s religious holidays, according to the New African.

“Historically, Ethiopia is a state where diverse groups have excelled in living together in harmony,” Ethiopian Orthodox priest Nehemiah T. Geth told the magazine. “Ethiopia is one of the few countries where Christians and Muslims live together peacefully with mutual respect and proximity.”

But according to EOTC members, attacks on Christians have risen over the last 30 years. With the rise of church burnings in the last two years, some wonder if Muslim extremism is taking hold in the country.

But William Davison, the International Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Ethiopia, believes the attacks may not be from religious extremists, but from others with political reasons in a country made up of several diverse ethnic groups.

Even though Christianity is intertwined in Ethiopian culture, some see the attacks against churches as a revolt against the EOTC, which some believe is out of step with the times.

Known as reformer, Ahmed, 43, has tried to quell the violence in his country. He is admired by many.

“I see Abiy as an answer to prayer,” said Frew Tamrat, principal of Evangelical Theological College in Addis Ababa, the capital city told Christianity Today. “He tries to live by biblical values. He is a preacher of peace, reconciliation, and forgiveness.”

But Ahmed’s detractors say the prime minister’s views on love, peace and reconciliation may be one of the causes of the deterioration of law and order in the country.

“Expecting people to love one another and to live in peace with one another just because a leader of a country speaks about these topics is not practicable,” Tedla Woldeyohannes, an Ethiopian professor of philosophy at Harris-Stowe State University in St. Louis, Missouri, argued in an op-ed for ECAD Forum.  “A leader’s commitment to a country is to protect the safety and security of citizens, not to exercise patience toward criminals.”

Tewodrose Tirfe of the Amhara Association of America told the New African there’s been no announcement of an effort by the prime minister’s government to stop the attacks.

“Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his administration have not addressed the targeting of church burnings, nor presented a plan to safeguard churches and Christians in the areas where they are being attacked,” he said. “He should not stay silent because the longer he’s silent and does not take action, the longer Ethiopians and the perpetrators will view it as not being a priority for Abiy Ahmed’s administration.”

Yet, the people of Ethiopia continue to long for peace within their own country.  According to Christianity Today, at a recent festival in Addis Ababa, celebrating the fourth-century finding of the true cross in the Tewahedo tradition, a half a million people chanted together: “May there be peace, peace, peace for Ethiopia.”

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BY K. RIVA LEVINSON, OPINION CONTRIBUTOR — 11/05/19 

THE VIEWS EXPRESSED BY CONTRIBUTORS ARE THEIR OWN AND NOT THE VIEW OF THE HILL

When Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize last month for his efforts to achieve peace and international cooperation and his decisive initiative to resolve the border conflict with neighboring Eritrea, I knew the celebrations would be short-lived.

The Nobel Committee said in its citation: “He spent his first 100 days as Prime Minister lifting the country’s state of emergency, granting amnesty to thousands of political prisoners, discontinuing media censorship, legalizing outlawed opposition groups, dismissing military and civilian leaders who were suspected of corruption, and significantly increasing the influence of women in Ethiopian political and community life.”

It was only a matter of time before commentators would second-guess the wisdom of the Nobel Committee for playing politics — with national elections just months away — and for “doling out premature praises,” to an untested leader.

And it was not unexpected that political opponents, in a nation with a history of conflict and ethnic fragmentation, would be emboldened to speak out given the global scrutiny that comes with the award. “Protests in Ethiopia Threaten to Mar Image of Its Nobel-Winning Leader” read the headline in the New York Times. “Ethiopian activist slams ‘authoritarian’ Nobel winner Abiy Ahmed” reported the Financial Times.

I figured as much — because I was in Oslo, Norway, in December, 2011, when Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, then the President of Republic of Liberia, was one of three women awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for her “non-violent struggle for the safety of women and for women’s rights to full participation in peace-building work.”

Like in Ethiopia, the Liberian political opposition were outraged, suggesting that Sirleaf’s international friends were trying to protect her from political defeat, awarding the Prize barely a month before the highly competitive elections for her second term in office.

“Her star status as the first female president of an African country has hoodwinked a considerable section of the international community into believing that the president is running a progressive regime,” said a leader of the opposition CDC party.

The criticisms of the Nobel Committee for rewarding leaders prematurely are understandable — in Liberia in 2011, in Ethiopia in 2019, and most notoriously so, in 2009, when the Nobel Peace Prize went to President Obama for his, “extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples,” only nine months after taking office, and nominated 9 days after his inauguration.

At the time of the award to Sirleaf, “the International Crisis Group found that … ‘resentment is growing that the government is “not listening to ordinary people” … and that 63 percent of Liberians’” still believed that corruption “remained pervasive at all levels.”

Since the announcement of the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize to the Ethiopian leader, opposition demonstrators have been arrested, and an alleged assassination attempt of a media personality critical of the government set off a protest leaving 78 persons dead. Meanwhile millions remain internally displaced.

But if you believe that the individual spirit is drawn to aspiration and hope, that it takes courage to challenge the status quo, and if you consider that the will of Alfred T. Nobel was to recognize leaders who have the power to confer “the greatest benefit to humankind,” then celebrating AbiyAhmed’s youthful transformative leadership and Sirleaf’s emergence from a post-conflict state as the first democratically elected female leader makes sense.

Africa is at a demographic tipping point. This year’s report by the Mo Ibrahim Foundation suggests that the continent is running out of time to create inclusive policies that propel growth with a population that is expected to double by 2050 to 2.5 billion and where 1 in 5 people in the world will be African and of those, 60 percent will be youth.

With this unassailable arithmetic, incremental progress in governance can no longer be abided. Africa needs to break the legacy hold of patriarchal geriatric leaders and open up governance to political outsiders, to women and to youth — to those like Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and Abiy Ahmed — disrupters with new ideas, and not captive to vested interests.

Prize or no prize, Abiy Ahmed has an uphill climb, and unlike Sirleaf, he is appointed, not elected, with the longevity and durability of his reforms dependent on the patience of the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front, and his ability to translate his ‘star power’ into popularity during next year’s national elections.

So — well done to the Nobel Committee for drawing attention to Abiy Ahmed’s leadership and the importance of a reform agenda to the second most populous country in Africa, anchoring the northeastern edge of a continent where translating a demographic surge into a demographic dividend will define our global stability.

Kenyan Professor Peter Kagwanja, writing for the Daily Nation, recommends that, “as Africa enters the phase of democratic consolidation, the Nobel Committee might consider redirecting attention to institutions propelling Africa’s peace and development,” and co-awarding the prize. In this year’s case, the Professor would include the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), an eight-country trade bloc that includes countries in the Horn of Africa.

I like the co-award idea, but IGAD wouldn’t get my vote, it would go to Ethiopia’s civil society, acknowledging their courage to take to the streets in 2015 demanding reform and change, ultimately forcing the resignation of prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn. They are representative of the rise of Africa’s activist generation, the most substantial political development on the continent in the past two decades.

K. Riva Levinson is president and CEO of KRL International LLC, a D.C.-based consultancy that works in the world’s emerging markets, award-winning author of “Choosing the Hero: My Improbable Journey and the Rise of Africa’s First Woman President” (Kiwai Media, June 2016). You can follow her @rivalevinson

 

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Ethnic and religious tensions that have spilled into violence and the deaths of dozens of protesters have their roots in the 1990s constitution

Last month Jawar Mohammed, a prominent African activist and media mogul, accused his country’s prime minister of trying to have him assassinated and criticised the rising “authoritarianism” of the political class.

It is a fairly common story on a continent where too many leaders cling onto power, quashing dissent and mismanaging their resources.

But the target of Mr Jawar’s attack will surprise many. It is Abiy Ahmed, the reformist Ethiopian prime minister who less than a month ago won the Nobel Peace Prize for transforming the east African country and ending a 20-year conflict with its northern neighbour, Eritrea.

The speed of change in Africa’s second most populous country has been unprecedented – and largely positive. But just over a year since Mr Abiy took office, intercommunal violence and ethnonationalism remain a problem, leaving many dead and millions displaced. Mr Abiy’s security forces are accused of using forceful tactics to suppress protests fuelled by ethnic and religious divides. The outbreaks of violence speak to the core challenge of governing Ethiopia, with its complex patchwork of ethnic groups, and the urgency of a new political settlement in Africa’s original empire.

To be clear, the continent’s youngest, most dynamic leader deserves much of the praise that has come his way. A former intelligence chief from Ethiopia’s largest but victimised Oromo ethnic group, often pictured sporting fatigues and doing press-ups with his soldiers, Mr Abiy has been a livewire.

When he came to office, protests that left 500 dead at the hands of security forces in 2016 had rumbled on for two more years. Mr Abiy responded to tensions by releasing thousands of political prisoners, reintegrating illegal armed groups and political parties, and liberating the press and the nation’s fast-growing economy. He set about remodelling authoritarian Ethiopia as a multiparty democracy.

The peace deal with Eritrea, which ended two decades of fighting over a sliver of borderland and required handing over small towns, showed real courage, not least because it angered Ethiopian military hawks. The significance of such a deal, which has implications for stability, growth and trade in east Africa, is clear in both Mr Abiy’s Nobel prize and the role that Gulf states, including the UAE, played in facilitating it.

The conflict was not merely a local problem but a regional one – and Mr Abiy seemed to many the answer.

However, by unmuzzling the press, civil society and myriad groups, Mr Abiy has created a space for the airing of grievances about resources, territory and power, which came to a head with a failed but deadly coup attempt in the northern state of Amhara in mid-June.

It is vital that the prime minister does not lose sight of the progress his administration has already made

Meanwhile, there are fears that Mr Abiy himself is deploying authoritarian tactics, despite the honour bestowed upon him last month by the Nobel committee. In October, the residence of Mr Jawar, founder of the Oromo Media Network, was suddenly surrounded by police in what he denounced as an assassination attempt. After Mr Jawar took to Facebook, his supporters clashed with security forces in Addis Ababa. During the violent exchanges, which evolved into ethnic clashes, at least 86 were killed in the capital – 10 of them by security forces, according to the Ethiopian Human Rights Commission. Earlier, the prime minister had told parliament that he would “take measures” against media owners who undermined the peace of Ethiopia.

In the eastern province of Dadar, protesters burned copies of a new book penned by Mr Abiy and distributed nationally, which sums up his vision for Ethiopia, while chants of “down, down Abiy” could be heard in the capital.

This is the greatest challenge Mr Abiy has faced since taking up office. The world is watching and hoping Ethiopia can move towards stability, to the extent that Pope Francis included the nation’s troubles in his Sunday address at the Vatican. “I ask you to pray for all the victims of violence in that land,” said the pontiff.

To understand how the country reached this point, we must step back to 1991, when the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) overthrew the brutal Marxist-Leninist Derg dictatorship and seized power. A coalition of four parties, the EPRDF has ruled ever since and holds all 547 seats in Ethiopia’s parliament.

In 1995, the party introduced a new national constitution, which divided the country into nine ethnic regions. Rather than choosing to integrate Ethiopia’s myriad ethnic groups – each with their own identities, languages, customs and cultures – the EPRDF opted for segregation, creating a zero-sum game for resources and paving the way for the crisis we see today.

The Oromo, who make up a third of the population but were traditionally marginalised, joined the Amhara in the streets from 2016 onwards, braving police brutality to demand an end to the supremacy of the Tigrayans, a tiny group that dominated the EPRDF – and therefore the country at large.

Former prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn stepped down in 2018, unable to quell the protests, before Mr Abiy, Ethiopia’s first Oromo leader, was appointed by the EPRDF.

Today, fighting plagues swathes of the country, particularly in the south, where scores of different ethnic groups are in fierce competition for land and resources. Hundreds have died since last year while more people were displaced in Ethiopia in 2018 than in war-torn Syria. Squalid and under-resourced refugee camps are near breaking point.

In the north, the Amhara and Tigrayans are engaged in a territorial dispute, while the latter resent Mr Abiy for pushing them from power.

Protests have been met at times with police violence. Meanwhile, intermittent internet shutdowns have spurred fears of a clampdown on communication.

At an international level, the prime minister is locked in a war of words with Egypt over a $5 billion (Dh18.4bn) Nile dam project – Africa’s largest hydropower facility due to be built near the Ethiopian-Sudanese border – which has Cairo worried about its already scarce access to water. The foreign ministers of Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan will be meeting in Washington tomorrow at the behest of US President Donald Trump to break the deadlock in negotiations.

It is vital that the prime minister does not lose sight of the progress his administration has already made. He must ensure that liberty and free speech do not breed paranoia, months before elections in May next year that he has promised will be free, fair and competitive. And he must root out rogue elements within his security forces responsible for the recent bloodshed.

Ethiopia stands at a crossroads. The 1995 constitution that divides people by ethnicity is out of date and needs a reboot. The country must engage in a national dialogue to reassure all groups that their voices will be heard in Mr Abiy’s Ethiopia. The prime minister has worked hard to improve his country and make peace with its neighbour Eritrea. He deserves praise and support but must be cautious in protecting what he has achieved.

If not, the progress Mr Abiy has made could come apart at the seams. And his new Ethiopia could collapse even more quickly than it was built.

The post Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed is facing the greatest test of his leadership appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News/Breaking News:.

Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan made a commitment to resolving a dispute over a large Ethiopian-led dam project after US-led talks on Wednesday.

The three nations issued a statement saying they would continue negotiations in talks to be held in Washington on December 9 and January 13 with the aim of finding a resolution by January 15 of next year.

“The ministers reaffirmed their joint commitment to reach a comprehensive, cooperative, adaptive, sustainable, and mutually beneficial agreement on the filling and operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and to establish a clear process for fulfilling that commitment in accordance with the 2015 Declaration of Principles,” the statement read. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and World Bank President David Malpass also signed it.

Big gains, big losses

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, in the works since 2011, is a massive Ethiopian hydroelectric dam project along the Nile river. Ethiopia plans to start filling and operating the reservoir in 2020, with the aim of eventually completing one of the world’s biggest dams and becoming Africa’s biggest power exporter. Once complete, the dam will generate about 6,450 megawatts of electricity, double Ethiopia’s current output.

The Nile provides both water and electricity to the 10 countries it passes through. Sudan and Egypt fear that the project could threaten their water supply. Egypt, which has suffered from a water crisis in recent years, relies on the river for 90% of its drinking water.

After talks between the countries broke down earlier this year, Egypt asked the US to step in as a mediator.

Peer mediation

Water ministers from all three countries will attend the upcoming talks, as will the US Treasury and the World Bank.

In the event a resolution is not reached by the January 15 deadline, the ministers agreed to then involve an international mediator.

(AFP, Reuters)

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Oromo nationalism helped bring Abiy Ahmed to power, but it could also be his undoing. To hold the country together, the Nobel-winning prime minister needs to convince various ethnic groups that he and his new party represent all Ethiopians.

On Oct. 11, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed received the Nobel Peace Prize for ending the long stalemate with neighboring Eritrea. Paradoxically, Abiy enjoys only fragmented and diminishing popular support in his own country. Even in his home region of Oromia, his leadership is seriously contested by the ethnonationalist forces represented by the social media activist Jawar Mohammed.

This became painfully evident on Oct. 23, when the Oromia region was shaken by a deadly wave of violence following a series of Facebook posts from Jawar. The activist, who also heads a TV channel called Oromia Media Network, announced that the police were about to detain him, an allegation that was later denied by the government. Around 70 civilians were killed when his angry supporters took to the streets, setting off an intercommunal conflict that took on an ethnic and religious dimension.

This tragic incident is emblematic of the volatile nature of ethnic politics in Ethiopia, which has started to crack the foundations of the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition. The EPRDF, which has ruled the country since 1991, is a coalition of four parties that represented the country’s major ethnic groups (Amhara, Oromo, Tigrayan, and southern groups) of which the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front was the most dominant party until recently.

Decades of authoritarian rule, forced displacement, and the perceived dominance of Tigrayans within the coalition led to widespread discontent that sparked a series of protests

in 2015.

Decades of authoritarian rule, forced displacement, and the perceived dominance of Tigrayans within the coalition led to widespread discontent that sparked a series of protests in 2015.

 The protests started in Oromia and subsequently spread to the Amhara region, and they were led by grassroots-based ethnic youth groups, most particularly by the Qeerroo movement in Oromia.

In April 2018, the EPRDF buckled under the pressure of the protests, and its chairman, Hailemariam Desalegn, resigned. A fractious internal reshuffle brought Abiy to the chairmanship, the first Oromo ever to hold the position. Abiy represented a younger generation of reformists within the EPRDF, and he immediately commenced with conciliatory gestures and a promise to widen the political space. His swift measures of making peace with Eritrea, releasing thousands of political prisoners, and welcoming banished political parties gained him significant popular support.

This didn’t last very long, however. Abiy’s measured tone and search for compromises in a country where politics is severely polarized immediately disappointed a large share of his supporters. The Oct. 23 violence in Oromia has further divided his support base and impaired his plans to unify the EPRDF coalition. As the country prepares for a national election in May 2020 with a weakened ruling party and fragmented electorate, the risk of radical ethnonational forces inciting violence is worse than ever.

Ironically, Abiy found it much easier to make peace with Eritrea than to unify his own country and party. In fact, his peacemaking sojourns in Sudan and Eritrea are best seen as efforts to bolster his profile before embarking on the much harder task of making peace at home.

Abiy must find a way to avoid repeating the perilous history of previous experiments in ethnic federalism in countries such as Yugoslavia.

Abiy must find a way to avoid repeating the perilous history of previous experiments in ethnic federalism in countries such as Yugoslavia.

 That will require bringing in more order and transparency to the process of political transition. At this point, the transition process is nebulous without any consensus on desired outcomes or a clear timeline.

This could be intentional on Abiy’s part. The root causes of the current political crisis come from a system that awkwardly weds ethnicity to electoral politics. Devised to ensure greater ethnic representation and equality within the confines of democratic centralism under the EPRDF, ethnic politics in an era of social media is inflaming ethnic extremism and undermining the very foundations of the federal system upon which it rests.

A lasting solution will necessitate a constitutional reform that establishes new checks and balances that mitigate the risk of ethnic politics exploding into downright violence. This, however, will require an extensive process of consensus-building around a bargain that reconciles the interests of federalists with those advocating for a more unitary state.

Unfortunately, creating a mechanism that can support this kind of reform is all but impossible in the current political atmosphere, which is highly polarized, fragmented, and unstable. Having gone through decades of repression and then an abrupt opening, Ethiopia’s political sphere is awash with the irreconcilable demands of various ethnic parties and other interest groups.

The post Ethiopia Will Explode if It Doesn’t Move Beyond Ethnic-Based Politics appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News/Breaking News:.

by Addissu Admas

Just a little over a year and half ago, it appeared that Ethiopia was finally heading in the right direction, i.e., towards democracy, peace and, presumably, prosperity. Getting rid of TPLF led regime felt as if a new dawn was about to break. After nearly half a century of oppressive regimes, Ethiopians felt that there would not be a turning back to the “old ways”. Yet, today we are staring at the possibility of a country heading again towards chaos and probably to civil unrest that could very well lead to the complete disintegration of the Ethiopian state.

Many blame Dr. Abiy for nearly everything that has gone wrong so far. Many more accuse him of having a secret agenda of his own, or worse, of his coalition partners. Others still accuse him of working only for his own prestige and glory; and that he is more of a showman than a truly effective leader. I do not subscribe to any of these accusations or assessments. I still believe that Dr. Abiy is a man of goodwill and good intentions who wishes only what is best not for his particular ethnic group only, but for all Ethiopians. The fact of the matter is that he is confronted with all the problems that are inherent to governing a multiethnic country that were made worse by 27 years of Woyane rule. Undoing a whole generation of divisive and rancorous system of governance is neither easy nor temporary. The upsurge of enthusiasm, nay euphoria, which we witnessed following Dr. Abiy’s rise to power, was short lived because the underlying problems were too great; and no amount of charisma on his part could have resolved them.

What we Ethiopians must come to realize is that we cannot expect that Dr. Abiy alone resolve all our problems, and turn Ethiopia into a model state. These expectations, besides being naïve, they can be dangerous. Ethiopia’s multifarious problems can only be resolved by the will of all Ethiopians. There is no one Ethiopian, or group of Ethiopians, that holds the key to all of Ethiopia’s problems. This has always been a misconception that we have nurtured for too long, and that we must rid ourselves from. All Ethiopians must come to accept the following fundamental truths as self-evident and unnegotiable if they desire to solve their fundamental problems permanently.

No ethnic war will resolve any of the problems we have; it will only exacerbate them. There are Ethiopians who appear to harbor the perverse hope that Ethiopia go the way of the former Yugoslavia. The presumed goal is to end all ethnic animus and conflict by carving out as many completely independent states as is feasible. This way, each state will be free to govern itself as it wishes; its language and culture being protected and cultivated to everyone’s heart delight. I am not quite sure if proponents of such a solution want to achieve their goal through the existing constitutional process, or by the barrel of the gun. My sense is that these individuals are not averse to choosing force over persuasion. Moreover, they seem to be moved more by rancor than reason. My hope is that they are and remain fringe elements.

Carving out as many individual and independent states can never be a viable solution for Ethiopia, because none of the states to be formed would have sufficient economic, educational and material resources to become wholly autonomous. The fact that Ethiopia has been able to achieve a modicum of economic growth in the past decade and a half is due to the contributions of all her peoples. If every ethnic group intends to have its own state it must also accept that it will be condemned to perennial poverty. The unity of Ethiopia, either in its current form or otherwise, is the condition sine qua non for building an economically and democratically viable country.

The current federal system should not be dismantled wholesale. However, it can and should be reformed through constitutional amendments. There are those who simply wish away the current federal constitutional arrangements and dream of returning to pre-EPRDF centralized system of governance. Even if they do not articulate it in these terms, it is in essence what they are hoping for. To these I say that the era of unitary state as it was under the imperial and the Derg regimes is over, and should not be even considered as an option. Our goal should aim more at “perfecting” the current system in place rather than wishing for a grand return to the old ways. It may appear a viable solution only to those who benefited from it, and not to those who suffered under it. In fact, it is what led ultimately to the current state of affairs.

The ethnic animus that is fanned constantly cannot and will not solve any of our problems. In fact, it will worsen them to the point where Ethiopia could become a failed state for decades to come. What Ethiopians of all ethnic groups need to learn from nations that have suffered ethnic strife and genocide is that a little compromise goes a very long way to ensuring lasting peace and cooperation. I believe that all demands made by the contending parties should be discussed openly with equanimity and fairness. It must be a given also that certain demands, being detrimental to adopt or impossible to accommodate, must be taken off the table. For example, I do not think, as I have stated in the past, that adopting Oromiffa as a federal language is an outlandish demand; it is in fact a reasonable demand given the fact that it is spoken by nearly 40% of the Ethiopian population. In fact, every Ethiopian should be required to learn either Amharic or Oromiffa if they are not speakers of these languages. And if they are, they should endeavor to learn each other’s language. This can only lead to better understanding and peaceful co-existence. We have to look only to Canada, Belgium, and Switzerland how this kind of accommodation has worked quite well.

On the other hand, I find it impossible to accommodate the demand that the nation’s capital, Addis Ababa be exclusively under Oromia’s killil. I believe that Addis Ababa’s autonomy should be preserved not only because it is the federal capital, but because every Ethiopian has a stake in it. Every Ethiopian has contributed to the construction and enrichment of this city, demanding that it be simply “returned” to one ethnic group ignoring a hundred and thirty years of history, sounds worse than unreasonable. No capital or major city in the world has hardly ever been exclusively owned and populated by one ethnic or national group alone. In fact, not only every ethnic or national group has been represented in the capital or major cities, but also foreign nationals have found a place to live, work and thrive there.

It is necessary that the election not be postponed, as some have vociferously demanded. We need to be realistic and expect less than perfect elections, but hope for the fairest election to ever be held in Ethiopia’s history. This is not a call for lower expectations out of fear of fraudulent maneuvers on the part of the party in power, but because the resources available to conduct an election on par with more advanced democracies are simply not there. “Waiting for better times to come” can lead to the real possibility that it may never take place. Conversely, looking and planning forward to it will most likely have the effect of giving us hope that something decisive and transformative will take place. Pushing the election indefinitely, without a set date, will undoubtedly have deleterious effect on both the political dynamics and public state of mind. For one, the current instability and disruptions may worsen at a far quicker pace because of the very uncertainties that this will engender. Secondly, it may push the PM to adopt more and more stringent and restrictive measures to “pacify” the nation, and gradually return to where we started.

I strongly believe that two years is a sufficient amount of time for political parties to prepare for an election. It is a given that they will be at a greater disadvantage vis a vis the ruling coalition, but they need to consider that they are not here for one election, but hopefully for many more to come; and to be, in the process, the founders of a truly democratic culture in Ethiopia.

The current competition between regional or ethnic and national or ideological parties is unsustainable. This kind of political arrangement leads only to a debate that uses two different political idioms. Our national objective should be to transition from tribal to political ideology. Ethnic parties are primarily concerned with promoting and defending the rights of their particular constituencies. They are often engaged in recriminatory discourse aimed at vilifying “the old oppressing ethnic group”. This has only the effect of exacerbating the existing animus between the various ethnic groups in the country.

The federal constitution has the goal of primarily addressing virtually all the demands of ethnic or regional parties. Thus, it should render their existence irrelevant or redundant. If indeed the constitution addresses their demands and concerns comprehensively what reason do they have to continue to exist? What Ethiopia needs instead are national or ideological parties, which can produce ideas that all of Ethiopia, without distinction of ethnicity, can benefit from given that all our economic and political needs are essentially identical.

However, the fact of the matter is that not only ethnic parties continue to exist and persist, but they continue to proliferate unabated. This, as we have seen, has only the effect of producing more conflicting and divisive discourse, adding to the general confusion and anxiety of Ethiopians. What we need first is to revise again the terms of our co-existence as one nation in order to create a more stable and prosperous commonwealth. Once this is established in clear and unambiguous terms, I believe that we will have more time to focus on what matters to all Ethiopians.

The unwritten, but often talked about power alternation between the major ethnic groups as inevitable must be completely repudiated. There is the presumption, and passive acceptance among many Ethiopians that one major ethnic group will inevitably emerge as hegemonic by turn, and that it is impossible to have all of them standing equal simultaneously. So, the narrative goes, Amharas had their “time” during the imperial era, the Tigreans during the TPLF regime, and the Oromos are just beginning to assert their hegemony presently under PM Dr. Abiy; and they should be governing the nation for the foreseeable future, if the country itself does not disintegrate once and for all. This notion of alternating ethnic hegemonies is not only pernicious, but has the effect of going exactly against the ultimate goal of the federal constitution. Ethiopia’s ethnic groups are not coming together to participate in a country where the “winner takes it all”, but to be valued as equal members of a larger commonwealth that respects their equal citizenship; offers them positions of responsibility and leadership at every level; protects their right to work and reside wherever and whenever they choose; ensures that they are not precluded from certain positions “reserved “only for a certain ethnicity, as the TPLF has notoriously done for a quarter of a century. What I understand by Dr. Abiy’s ideology of Medemer is that all Ethiopians have equal stake in the country’s future, and equal potentials, responsibilities, and say in what direction the country should go.

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By Teklu Abate

Following the election on 2 April 2018 (by the EPRDF) of Dr Abiy Ahmed as Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, there was massive, country-wide popular support for him and euphoria for social change. Substantial changes are made to cabinet composition. New commissions and agencies are established to harness smooth transition to genuine democracy. Political prisoners are released and the infamous Maekelawi jail is turned in to a museum. The secretive imperial palace (considered by the many as Death Valley, as many are killed and buried there by the Imperial and Derg regimes) is renovated and is made open for public visit. All types of media are set free and free speech is made part of public reality. Successful diplomatic initiatives are undertaken with neighbouring countries which mainly contributed to the award of the prestigious Nobel Peace Prize for 2019 to Dr Abiy.

In his efforts to introduce and sustain a qualitatively different political dynamic in Ethiopia, Dr Abiy, as expected, faced hurdles after hurdles which cost Ethiopia dearly in terms of irreplaceable human lives. The scoio-cultural capital built by ethnic groups for years seems to shake up by the tremors. Ethnic-based skirmishes drive millions out of their ancestral lands and villages. The Nobel Peace Prize moments of happiness are immediately dashed out by the heartless carnage of 86 Ethiopians. Surprisingly, much of the chaos is taking place within Dr Abiy’s political constituency, Oromia. The ruling party, EPRDF, is in disarray. On top of all these, it is declared that Ethiopia aspires to hold general/national elections in 2020. All these seem to create a strong sense of bewilderness as to what trajectory the country is taking and how. Who is responsible for all these social evils? How can we Ethiopians overcome the hurdles and establish a lasting democratic culture?

This piece aims to contribute toward a clear conception of the struggle for genuine democracy in terms of its particular challenges and possible ameliorating strategies. It has to be made clear that this is not an academic-like discussion of social and political change; it is more of a reflection of my desire to see an empowering and lasting change in Ethiopia. I do not claim that my contribution is not pure original; I try to map out the fundamental challenges of the struggle based on media coverages, my observations and Paulo Freire’s famous Pedagogy of the Oppressed (1970) conception of humanity, oppression, empowerment, and change. The late Brazilian philosopher Freire received numerous awards for his works which influenced popular struggles for freedom in Latin America and worldwide. I believe that any struggle for freedom can benefit from Freire’s philosophy. My use of his conception in this piece is but limited to conceptions of challenges facing a struggle like ours. If we Ethiopians dare to think higher and clearer, we can ensure that poverty, tribalism, dictatorship and war kiss the abyss of history for good.

The target readers of my piece are the silent but highly educated Ethiopians at home and abroad, activists and commentators, the media (social and broadcast), opposition party leaders, civil society organizations, religious institutions, and EPRDF leadership, its members and active supporters. Considering the size of the Ethiopian population, these are obviously the minority, but they have been and still defining what trajectory Ethiopia takes. They do have the means and the capitals needed and can easily get the trust of the majority. That these sections of society seem to have differing and competing worldviews also further justify the need to target these readers for my piece.

Formidable challenges for Abiy and Ethiopia

Creating and sustaining an all-inclusive democratic system is not an easy feat. Ethiopia now faces colossal challenges of all sorts. I outlined below some fundamental challenges that are castrating our ambition and confidence toward complete and sustainable liberation and genuine democratic governance. The most threatening and incapacitating factor taking the entire country as a hostage is the emergence of new clones of oppressors who were once among the oppressed majority. The unity and integrity of Ethiopia seems to be shaken by this new breed of oppressors.

The oppressed turned as the oppressor

Due to the dehumanizing nature of oppressors, who are defined here as those who 1) do not freely think and act responsibly to actualize their dreams, and 2) do limit or challenge by any means available the free will and action of others, it is likely that the formerly oppressed (who were among the oppressed by the TPLF-led dictatorship) use dehumanizing strategies against their oppressors and the general populace to arrive at their goals. The TPLF is known for using the intelligence facilities, the police, the military, public media, and other institutions to castrate every free move of the citizenry. They were the real oppressors or at least leaders of the oppressors until April 2018. Now the TPLF and its entourage are technically gone, cornered and hopelessly kicking their shells from afar, Mekelle. What is worrisome and shameful is that several of those who once fought for overcoming TPLF-induced and run oppression turn themselves into new oppressors. Using the structures and arrangements they created during and in the fight against the TPLF, the new oppressors keep terrorizing the general populace. Their discourses freely expressed in social and mass media reveal zest for sheer dominance, power, exclusion, dehumanization, torture, intimidation, and persecution. Their discourses and talks embody actions, hence the senseless killings we happen to witness across Ethiopia.

For reasons ascribed to ethnic interests, the formerly oppressed (who include many from activists, politicians, the youth, and even the highly educated) turned themselves violent and are systematically incapacitating state machinery and the popular struggle for genuine transition to democracy. Enjoying at times state protection and the other opportunities the struggle bear so far, the new oppressors position themselves as formidable forces who are fighting for the causes of Oromia. The new oppressors embrace sectarian and fanatic rhetorics. This qualifies them as the most formidable forces that can send their tremors overnight and shake the entire landscape of Ethiopia. These new oppressors have tentacles that parallel and outsmart government structures and arrangements all the way from the federal offices down to the Kebeles. The new oppressors paralyze federal and regional government bureaucracies and threaten to cause even more damage if provoked. This gives sleepless nights to the incumbent, Dr Abiye and his government, as well as to all peace-loving Ethiopians.

Fanaticism and sectarianism

Destructive fanaticism and sectarianism also challenge the integrity of the struggle and are about to miscarriage liberation. Ethnic-based political discourses are being constructed and promoted everywhere. The majority of the 140 political parties including the ruling party, EPRDF, are organized along ethnic lines. Ethnic discourses are by their very nature incompatible to each other and hence are exclusionary. The validity and fecundity of a particular ethnic discourse is ensured at the expense of other discourses. This logic partly leads to fanaticism, sectarianism, ethnic hatred, and then persecution. Much of the political debates we have in Ethiopia is framed within this hoax. This makes it difficult to incept, develop, and sustain political discourses based on quality of ideas and policies. The prime minister tried hard to create and sustain a political culture and ambition that transcend ethnicity but to no avail. Ethnicity is the lifeblood of political organization and operation in Ethiopia. This type of politics is like a Blackbox; once you are sucked in, there does not seem to have a chance to escape back. Unfortunately, a sizable portion of the population in one way or another plays around sectarianism.

Identification

A not negligible part of the population is identifying with the new and the old oppressors. The oppressors boast to have millions of active members and supporters at their disposal. Many play the role of bandas, covertly serving the interests of the oppressors. The recent massacres in the various parts of Ethiopia are testimonies to the existence of a populace base for the new oppressors. On top of that, a minority group from the former oppressors has special and often times political and economic interests and ties with the new oppressors. For they fear for their own safety, prosperity, and influence, these groups are putting to the liberation struggle hurdles after hurdles.

Dependence

Some radicals in the struggle create, consciously or otherwise, in the name of popular struggle, emotional, moral, and/or psychological dependence on the mass. The mass may then think that it is only the leaders who should decide and act. Plus, the leaders of the oppressed may unconsciously own the struggle. Self-declared leaders of ethnic groups and social movements work smart and hard to create psychological dependence on their followers. Followers religiously submit to the whims of their self-appointed leaders. The former considers the latter as their messiahs, protectorates, and liberators. This state of dependency does not discriminate political parties; the prime minister, leaders of political parties and ethnic groups have many unquestioning followers who psychologically and morally depended on them. This state of mind is itself limiting, oppressive, dehumanizing, and castrates genuine struggle for democratic governance in Ethiopia.

Convert dilemma

As the liberation moves forward, people from the former oppressor side left their ranks and files and joined the new political climate. The converts shamelessly feel that they are capable and experienced, and hence they want to lead the new struggle. Abiy’s philosophy of Synergy seems to come to their rescue. That is why we see many of them are still assuming key public positions and easily mingling with Dr Abiy. More depressing is that converts may not trust the mass. In a way, converts may not be able to bring a profound change in their world views and actions which may pose a particular challenge to the struggle. That is partly why they appear indecisive, insecure, and actionless- all these in the end rests in shaming and blaming the prime minister. The converts are real menaces to the further progression of the change process in Ethiopia. They are in constant fear of being persecuted and prosecuted someday should the change matures and solidifies itself.

Fear of freedom

The oppressed lack self-confidence in openly challenging the new system and its elements that frustrate genuine change. The oppressed self-depreciate, as they are treated like powerless, lazy, and envious by the old and new oppressors alike. The majority feel and fear that pushing this new structure a little further might trigger the outbreak of a protracted civil war. The majority of the population is still indifferent; it stands tall and quiet in the midst of all the killings, persecutions and bogus prosecutions. The oppressors (old and new) also fear real freedom and democracy, as they always consider that liberation is possible only at the expense of their safety and comfort. So, both the oppressed majority and the (old and new) oppressors fear to engage in meaningful deliberations that could result in the founding of genuine democratic governance systems in Ethiopia.

Concluding remarks

I would like to make some closing remarks. One, struggle for complete liberation and democratic governance requires profound love for people, humility, intense faith in people capacity/potential, mutual trust, hope, self-regulation, and critical thinking. Two, confront the culture of oppression culturally (deal with the world views, consciousness, actions, ethics… of the oppressor). Three, oppression embodies violence; the initiator of violence, terror, despotism, dissatisfaction, and hatred is the oppressor. If the oppressor is not willing to come to terms with peaceful struggle, the oppressed have that right of using any means thought to meet the goal- to liberate the oppressor and the oppressed alike. The latter can also restrict the movements of converts and others who appear to castrate the struggle. Four, if the oppressor is willing to have genuine dialogue possibly leading to national consensus and reconciliation, the oppressed MUST participate genuinely. Five, leaders of the struggle MUST understand the fact that they fight not for the people but with the people. Six, the goal of the struggle, to liberate the oppressor and the oppressed, MUST be constantly articulated and communicated to all sections of the society including to those linked to the oppressors. Seven, we can deliberately forget what the old and new oppressors have been doing against us and focus more on the now and the future.

I finish this piece by quoting from Mandela’s Long Walk to Freedom (1994), as it mightily summarizes my arguments: “I told white audiences that we needed them and did not want them to leave the country. They were South Africans just like ourselves and this was their land, too. I would not mince words about the horrors of apartheid, but I said, over and over, that we should forget the past and concentrate on building a better future for all” (736 – 737).

We shall be free!!!

This article is based on my piece entitled Save Ethiopia by Saving the TPLF! Published on 20 December 2017.  The writer can be reached at teklu.abate@gmail.com.

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By Yohannes Gedamu

When Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018, the political reforms and initiatives he promised were met with much hope and optimism. He promised to address Ethiopia’s deteriorating ethnic relations, to build national unity, and reignite the stalled democratic process.

And his efforts to end the 20-year conflict with Eritrea won him the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize. Despite this accolade, Abiy’s Ethiopia continues to witness recurring incidents of violence within its borders. As a result, the tide of enthusiasm for the premier’s reforms is waning. The reforms, from the promise to release political prisoners, to the opening of the media space, now seem distant memories.

Abiy’s administration has failed to adequately address the political wrangling within the federal government and recurring ethnic conflict. These two factors are putting the country on the path to destruction. The federal government has failed to assert itself as the top authority. This has created space for regional actors to violently oppose the state.

Spiralling instability

The ethnic federal government, which has divided the country along tribal lines, and the legacy of Ethiopia’s authoritarian system, are structural challenges that cannot be underestimated. These challenges have not been addressed by Abiy’s administration. It is understood that reform takes time, but the premier’s flip flopping on some of the issues has caused uneasiness with his leadership. One such issue is the creation of a non-ethnic federation.

His muted response to the rising ethnic violence is worsening peace and security. Today, Ethiopia’s ethnic violence is costing thousands of lives and millions have been displaced. The situation is also weakening the country’s economy.

To make matters worse, the political leadership within the governing Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) is divided. Over the past few months in particular, the political parties that make up the ruling coalition have been blaming each other for Ethiopia’s political dysfunction.

As the wrangling continues, EPRDF’s constituent parties from the Oromia, Amhara and Tigray regions are asserting themselves more than ever. Some of the parties are known for advocating the politics of ethno-nationalism which has historically polarised Ethiopia’s ethnic federation. Ethno-nationalism is an ideology that defines national identity based on ethnicity.

Today, ethno-nationalists are seizing the opportunity to gain the political upper hand. Abiy’s regime’s failure to stabilise the nation, and declining public trust in his administration, have given them fresh political momentum.

His position has also been weakened by forces like the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front, the dominant political force in pre-Abiy Ethiopia, which is throwing its support behind the ethno-nationalist movements that are opposed to his leadership.

The premier’s dilemma

Abiy seems to be the prisoner of Ethiopia’s federal government, the very system that propped him up. This federal system draws its legitimacy from citizens maintaining a strong ethnic identity at the regional level. In light of this the new premier has two options.

One is to actively pursue the unifying agenda that made him popular, which would alienate his ethnic Oromo constituency. The other is to align with the interests of the Oromo ethno-nationalist movement. This would secure the electoral support of his political base in Oromia. But choosing the latter could deprive him of the non-Oromo support he has been enjoying.

Indeed, since Abiy was elected the nation has gone down a renewed path of violence. It is not only the Ethiopian people who are divided, it is also the political elites who had previously shown support for Abiy’s leadership. Ethiopia’s two majority groups – the Amharas and the Oromos – have been particularly critical of the prime minister’s perceived inability to address the country’s political tumult.

This follows a coup attempt in the Amhara region that left its president Ambachew Mekonnen, the country’s military chief-of-staff Seare Mekonnen, and three others dead. The Oromia region has also been the scene of recurrent violence where rallies against Abiy have recently erupted after Oromo activist Jawar Mohammed accused security forces of trying to orchestrate an attack against him.

Abiy has also been criticised for the reemergence of ethnic bias in the federal government’s political decision making.

Abiy’s response

Abiy has so far defended his administration’s response to the violence and called on Ethiopians to shun those who try to divide them. However, he has not distanced himself from front-line Oromo ethno-nationalist activists. This has led to the perception there is a pro-Oromo bias in his administration.

There are signs of a burgeoning political dysfunction, from the way in which the administration attempted to resettle internally displaced Ethiopians based on their ethnicity to the complacency in addressing the violence.

Abiy’s promise to foster national reconciliation through the new national reconciliation commission seems to be forgotten. The political space that opened up with Abiy’s election is closing. And the notorious torture chambers that were closed have been replaced by new jails that operate like the old ones. This throws the promise of a fair justice system into question.

All things considered, it would appear that the EPRDF old guard is an obstacle to Abiy’s reform process. It could also be that the new premier is no longer fully committed to the promise of a new Ethiopia. Fortunately for the prime minister a section of the public still has faith that the newly minted Nobel Laureate can deliver on his promises.

But if Abiy doesn’t take decisive steps to stabilise the country, chances are high that the Ethiopian state could crumble. To prevent this, the premier must assert the federal government’s power to ensure peace and security. He must negotiate with his adversaries and allies on the direction the country is taking, and find a way to tame powerful ethno-nationalist activists. Importantly, unless he genuinely attempts to reinvigorate ties between the parties in the ruling coalition, the country’s violent trajector

The post Why Ethiopians are losing faith in Abiy’s promises for peace appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News/Breaking News:.

By Amber Mazan

The Nile River is a north flowing river which flows from Ethiopia and South Sudan into Egypt. It is one of the largest rivers in Africa and is a factor which helps Egypt industrialize, as the river provides fertile ground for growing crops such as flax seeds, wheat, and pomegranates. Today, the Nile River is used as a major transportation route for Egypt, and its source for 85% of its water. This has caused concern for Egypt due to the construction of the Ethiopian Dam. Ethiopia has been constructing the dam since 2011 which is set to be open in 2020-2022. The total construction cost is around 4 billion U.S. dollars, and it will be the largest dam in Africa and the 7th largest dam in the world.

Egypt has concern over Ethiopia’s mega-dam  it fears it will have too much control over the flow of Africa’s longest river. Filling the reservoir will affect the flow of water downstream, and the slower Ethiopia fills it, the less of an impact it will have. It is estimated that neighboring countries such as Sudan, Kenya, Djibouti and Eritrea will also benefit from the power generated from the hydroelectric dam. Sudan would also benefit from the consistency of the water flow, as Sudan typically has serious flooding problems.

President Donald Trump has recently mediated this dispute. Trump has said to have had a successful talk with officials from Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan regarding the issues.

“The meeting went well and discussions will continue during the day,” Trump said on one of his recent twitter posts.

Analysts of the construction of the dam fear that the three affecting countries could be drawn into a serious conflict if it is not resolved. With a call for international mediation, these issues are still progressing.

The post Ethiopian Dam Dispute Causes International Mediation appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News/Breaking News:.