By Abate Kassa   April 29, 2019

The purpose of this article is to encourage fellow Ethiopians to craft a new political economy for Ethiopia ሀገር–በቀል አዲስ የኢትዮጵያ ርዕዮተ–ዓለም ለመንደፍ, in the spirit of following our ancestor’s paradigm pioneering tradition like that of innovating the Ge’ez alphabet. This is not a prescription, but a suggestion for discussion and debate.

There is a world of developed and developing nations. Most of the developing nations in Africa emerged as independent nations only in the early 1960’s. Yet, Ethiopia, a country that prides itself on thousands of years of recorded history during which time it always enjoyed independence except for a five-year Italian occupation, also belongs among the developing nations. The year 1974 marked the end of monarchy in Ethiopia and the beginning of oligarchy. The political system that would be more appropriate for Ethiopia today in the light of its political culture, however, would be a polyarchy where power would be dispersed among competing political parties.

The main burden of evolving an appropriate model of development rests on a society itself by examining what it can learn from its own history and culture by a full comprehension of the constraints and opportunities available in its internal and external environments. Let us now review some of the key thoughts of such a new model for autonomous development.

The path many developing countries have taken to develop their national economies is that of either the capitalist or the socialist model of developed societies, but most still suffer from abject poverty and economic decline; and Ethiopia is no exception.

Yet, both capitalism and socialism have many unresolved problems, and Arrigo Levi, a prominent Italian journalist, in “Failure Cannot Shatter the Socialist Dream,” Times of London, October 30, 1980, puts the matter bluntly as follows:

Socialists dream of a utopia, a classless society of equals with universal prosperity, and on top of that, perfect freedom for the individual. This utopia has never become real.

The power of the socialist dream is so great that there are many otherwise quite intelligent people who have developed total blindness to the dismal failure of the Marxist theory of socialism.

Marxist socialism has proved unable to offer either plenty, or equality, or freedom. The idea that the full state ownership of the means of production could be the basis of a socialist utopia clearly appears, today, as just a historical hallucination.

Historical experience has taught us that a socialist structure can only provide the basis for a centralized, totalitarian and intolerant political power.

It deprives the workers of their union freedoms, and the consumers of their right of choice. It provides the worst possible system for the allocation of scarce resources. It slows down innovation. It condemns the economy to near stagnation.

Such a stubborn insistence, on such patently wrong ideas, can only be produced by the fact that other ideas have been found to be equally unsatisfactory.

Indeed, the “mixed economy, welfare state” model, the dominant one in the West, in spite of its great historic achievements, keeps presenting great blemishes: inflation and unemployment; and there are glaring injustices and inequalities, profiteering, and greediness.

Therefore, both socialists and capitalists are more than ever in search of a better formula.

In an insightful exposition on the ‘great competition’ between capitalism and socialism, Richard L. Sklar in “Beyond Capitalism and Socialism in Africa,” The Journal of Modern African Studies, 26 (1988), pp. 14-15, 18, explains the dichotomy as follows:

Few sophisticated socialists today rate the “developmental merits” of socialism above those of capitalism; fewer still would dispute the short-term advantages of capitalism for societies at early stages of industrial development. Instead, they argue that socialism is morally superior to an economic system, such as capitalism, that depends upon the domination and exploitation of working people by a privileged class. Socialism persists as an ideological and political movement, regardless of its failures, because capitalism is unilaterally identified with social injustice. Personal insecurity, social disorganization, and urban unemployment are the spectral witnesses of capitalism in Africa.

Still, three decades of trial and error, in Africa and elsewhere in the Third World, have also acquainted social reformers with the pitfalls of socialism. The hardest lesson for socialists to learn is one that Karl Marx taught better than anyone else. Plainly stated, there is no substitute for capital; it is the driving force of economic development. A second important lesson for socialists, one that cannot, alas, be learned from Marx, is that socialism lacks an adequate theory of incentives.

In sum, socialism needs capital and lacks a theory of incentives; capitalism needs the state and lacks a theory of social responsibility. The African economies need private capital, purposeful state participation, powerful incentives, and public responsibility for the general standard of living. These common requirements for social progress can only be met by judicious mixtures of capitalism and socialism.

The challenge is to question the validity of a restrictive political conception that limits developing nations to adopt an absolutist approach of either the capitalist or socialist model. My proposal dubbed Ethiocracy ኢትዮክራሲ tries to break that paradigm by introducing a relativistic and pragmatic approach that benefits from the strengths of both models but starves their weaknesses.

The Dergue claimed socialism was the truth. TPLF/EPRDF claims ethnic federation as the truth. Both (closed societies) pursued delusion of perfection. Yet, Stephen Hawking told us, “One of the basic rules of the universe is that nothing is perfect. Perfection simply doesn’t exist. Without imperfection, neither you nor I would exist.” We witnessed that an extremist socialist economic policy was inappropriate for a pre-industrial peasant economy like that of Ethiopia. Nor is unfettered capitalism considered to be a viable alternative.

Recognizing the failure of socialism as a development theory and the failure of capitalism in its social responsibility, we ought to opt for a pragmatic economic system that makes its strengths effective and its weaknesses irrelevant. A ‘means/end’ rationale may help to explain the dichotomy—capitalist in MEANS and socialist in END. Socialism as a philosophy is ‘directive;’ it does not build bridges or make እንጀራ. Capitalism as a science is ‘productive;’ it is a development theory. While the socialist mode of production largely follows a command economy, the capitalist model emphasizes market demands. While the socialist mode takes the form of collectivism, the capitalist stresses individualism. While the socialist system may be committed to maximum public ownership of the means of production, the capitalist may prefer maximum private ownership.

Ethiocracy on the other hand, follows pragmatism where ideas and actions are evaluated by their useful results, not on dogmatic ideological lines. Unlike the mixed economy model (which simply combines elements of free markets with state intervention), Ethiocracy incorporates both capitalist and socialist ideas, but selectively based on the system’s capacity to deploy a pro-growth mindset that increases productivity by investing in talent, infrastructure, technology, fostering teamwork, promoting competition and innovation, enhancing global connectivity and mobilizing domestic savings and capital formation; enabled by genuine democracy, the rule of law, and utilitarian approach asserting morally correct actions. Ethiocracy incorporates the traditional cultural values of Ethiopia in order to make the full participation of the citizens effective because “culture eats strategy for breakfast.” Since culture should determine a political system, and not vice versa, and because political culture is the bedrock of everything that happens in a political system, it will be necessary to devise a system that has congruence with Ethiopia’s political culture, i.e., its fundamental system of beliefs, attitudes, values, and expressive symbols which define the situation in which political action takes place. I would like to underscore that Ethiopia invested thousands of years in the development of its political culture and it would be inappropriate to superimpose an alien experience onto a nation where the realities are completely different.

As Piero Gheddo argues in Why is the Third World Poor, the spiritual concept of development sees development as a human fact, and therefore one that is primarily cultural before it is technical or economic. Since it is man who is to grow and develop, as Ethiopian philosopher Zer’a Ya’iqob (1599-1692) said, “man is the first agent of his own development;” and if development is to be authentic it must respect the cultural values proper to all people so that they may be able to evolve and to adapt to different conditions of life. Gheddo asserts that a country’s material progress cannot be paid for by the loss of the traditional culture that represents its identity.

You combine the best of capitalism and socialism plus the best of liberal democracy and social democracy, and you will get the new social, economic, and political policy of Ethiopia that I dubbed Ethiocracy, Ethiopia’s socially responsible market economy, ሀገር-በቀል አዲሱ የኢትዮጵያ ርዕዮተ-ዓለም.  Ethio stands for Ethiopia and –cracy denotes a particular form of government or rule. Hence, Ethiocracy is the Ethiopian way of government or rule because our country should do it its own way! Ethiocracy is an embodiment of Ethiopia’s genuine democracy and a knowledge-based economy that recognizes the equality of all citizens, individual human rights, and the supremacy of law. It is the alternative to TPLF/EPRDF’s revolutionary democracy and developmental state policy which is undemocratic and inappropriate for the tribal-based political economy. The developmental state model worked for China and other states in East Asia because they are not burdened by an ethnic federation policy. TPLF/EPRDF pursued a zero-sum politics of patronage through the instrument of Joseph Stalin’s ethnicity model. It used ethnicity as a means of accessing state power and accumulating personal wealth (cronyism and rent-seeking).

Ethiocracy would categorize the economic sectors into four clusters, namely, State Owned, Privately Owned, Cooperatively Owned, and Others.

(a) The Government Sector provides public infrastructure like roads, prisons, meteorology, police, passport office, postal service, etc.

(b) The Private Sector which could be either closely held or market traded shares, delivers goods and services that are controlled by market forces.

(c) The Cooperatively Owned economic sector refers to institutions controlled by Suppliers like agricultural cooperatives; or controlled by Customers like mutually held insurance companies or joint purchasing corporations; still others owned and controlled by Employees.

(d) Others consist of not-for-profit institutions such as non-government owned (NGOs), non-business owned (NBOs), and non-cooperatively owned (NCOs).  In this category, you find professional societies, trade associations, charities, universities, hospitals, and the Red Cross.

One of the root causes for the implosion of the Soviet Union was that everything was state-owned. Success requires a balancing act where wider uses of all four forms of ownership are employed to achieve the triumph of balance.  Governments that create markets are more successful in promoting growth than governments that try to replace markets. By the way, despite the popular capitalist perspective that government involvement stifles innovation, that is not the case in China.

In the socially responsible market economy of Ethiocracy, the ethos of love and caring are balanced against the ethos of greed and selfishness that is embedded in the competitive market. Market fundamentalists falsely believe that common interest is best served by unfettered pursuit of self-interest. Markets are not designed to address distributive justice. For example, corporations do not aim at creating employment; they employ people (as few and as cheaply as possible) to make profits. Firms compete in order to make profits, not to preserve competition, and if they could, they would eliminate all competition. Ethiocracy is concerned with mental health and child poverty beyond GDP.

Instead of dogmatic rigidity, Ethiocracy follows pragmatic flexibility. Ethiocracy rejects the idea of the ideal form of government. There cannot be a perfect government in an imperfect world, but we do not have to settle for mediocrity either. Ethiocracy pursues a practical business-like approach to economic management. It develops and sets forth standards of increasingly excellent government that strives to provide its citizens protection, justice, and best government service at the least cost in resources. In its pursuit of excellence in government, Ethiocracy attains better standards and continues to improve public service as it is geared for change and does not allow itself to be stifled by ideological constraints. Unlike religion, in the political economy of Ethiocracy, ideas are always in flux and there is no place for doctrinaire ideology. Ethiocracy places a high premium on performance and achievement, expert knowledge, and the need for mutual gain through win-win collaboration.

Ethiocracy seeks to satisfy the ‘basic needs’ of a poor nation by following flexible, creative, and non-dogmatic approach that embraces what is worth preserving in both capitalism and socialism. In so doing it rejects the politics of an all-out capitalism or socialism. In other words, it considers the dogmatic and formalistic approach of selecting one over the other as inappropriate or restrictive for a developing society. Under Ethiocracy, lean government, development-mindedness, participatory democracy, constitutionalism, good governance, with voting being a national duty and elections held on weekends will be the foundations of state order in Ethiopia.

In the light of the absolute monarchy in the past, and the one-party dominance of today, there is an imbalance between the development of the political and administrative institutions, with the imbalance favoring the latter. Therefore, there is a great need for launching soundly conceived institutional capacity building programs for ‘political development’ to strengthen elements of the constitutive system, such as the legislature and political parties.

Fascist dictatorship (Italian), monarchical dictatorship, military dictatorship, proletarian dictatorship, and one-party dictatorship in succession have produced poverty and misery for Ethiopia. In the proposed socially responsible market economy dubbed Ethiocracy, the government derives its authority from the consent of the governed, given in free and frequent elections. The power of the government is further harnessed by a check-and-balance system, free press; and the political leadership will be elected from among the competing political parties. Furthermore, it will be We the Citizens, and not a vanguard party who will ordain and establish the new Constitution. Ethiopia’s 110 million people of today comprising of 86 ethnic groups who speak an estimated 123 languages but one official common language of Amharic have lived in harmony for a very long time ማለት እኛ ኢትዮጵያውያን ለዘመናት የመደመር ታሪክ ያለን ሕዝብ ነን። The current ethnic-federalist constitution that is designed to serve the political agenda of TPLF/EPRDF needs to be amended or replaced as it is intensifying polarization fueling ‘ethnic conflicts’ instead of promoting the cultural values of peaceful co-existence.

Political change without economic change merely gives people freedom to complain about what they cannot do anything about. Let us, therefore, further address the economic side of the equation. The new economic policy of Ethiopia should aim to increase food production and end hunger. To do so, the social budget should be significantly greater than the defense budget without, of course, having an adverse effect on the security of the nation. This policy would stress a balanced development that begins with favoring agriculture, raw materials production, and light industry. A new emphasis that needs to be given is the development of value-added labor-intensive manufacturing in the sugar, cotton, leather, and coffee industries to help expand exporting capabilities to achieve export earnings and be able to purchase foreign technologies.

The burden of debt of 59% of GDP makes development difficult. A debt relief scheme needs to be crafted for the debt overhang that will be inherited by the new government. The new economic policy anticipates a development financing that provides an infusion of capital similar to the Marshall Plan or European Recovery Program that was implemented following the Second World War. Such a reconstruction strategy would be relevant to Ethiopia today because many of the essential structures and institutions are in place or can be rehabilitated. Demand management strategy should be launched in order to inject government expenditures to stimulate demand and thereby bring about economic recovery. Such a strategy needs to be accompanied by a fiscal policy that alternates between corrective and propulsive orientation, fine tuning economic policies intended to produce desired outcomes. Accordingly, the general economic policy guides that should be pursued will include: the mobilization of resources by the employment of otherwise idle labor in public work programs to help raise productivity and provide purchasing power; sustainable tourism development; impact investing (achieving sustainable financial returns while doing well for the community such as caring for social or environmental impact); and the promotion of savings which is essential for growth in GDP.

The best way to predict our future is to create it ourselves. The knowledge-based new economic policy of Ethiopia should address the actual needs and hopes of the people, and expects the nation to conquer the widespread famine, disease, and illiteracy by the year 2039.

Land Reform. According to Alemneh Dejene, land is relatively abundant in Ethiopia with an estimated 75 to 85 million hectares of agricultural land in Ethiopia. Findings from Arsi support Dessalegn Rahmato’s argument that about 5 hectares would be an appropriate size for most farmers to operate efficiently. In consideration of the long-established tradition of private holdings in Ethiopia and also in an effort to revitalize the agricultural sector, farm families should be allowed to own farms privately and be allowed to sell their produce in the free market. The new agricultural policy should aim to achieve a new program of ‘land to the tiller’ as well as decontrolling of all prices coupled with low-term low-interest financing. In order to feed Ethiopia’s growing population, agricultural productivity will need to improve. Therefore, transformation from oxen ploughing to the adoption of modern agricultural appropriate technology must be a national priority initiative to stop passing poverty to the next generation.

A market system in which the state regulates, but private persons own and operate, has been extolled as combining the best of both worlds. While private ownership contributes its vaunted efficiency, because of the profit motive and competitive stimulus, state surveillance of the market ensures that service and safety to the public is considered along with profit. Since a business will cease to exist if it continues to operate at a loss, and not make a profit, profit should be acknowledged as an important desideratum because business prosperity is vital to the nation’s well-being. Furthermore, the public-private partnership (PPP) concept requires a special value-for-money (VfM) review in its application to infrastructure projects.

While Ethiocracy accepts the classic economic theory that the marketplace can better evaluate the public’s needs than government, it also believes some things are too important to be left to the vagaries of the market. Markets without rules is theft too. Therefore, some social regulation by government is required to provide a connective tissue between the needs of the public and the private sector. Private industry is entitled to make a reasonable profit; but its employees are also entitled to their health and safety; consumers are entitled to safe and well-made products; and the public is entitled to have its air, water, and quality of life safeguarded. The invisible hand doesn’t take care of everything; government needs to be proactive and accept responsibility for cities, climate change and the environment. Considering Ethiopia’s conditions today, Ethiocracy’s pragmatic alternative would be more appropriate, lying between the aberrations of socialism on the left and laissez-faire capitalism on the right.

Ethiocracy permits experimentation with policies that allow for private and state ownership to exist side-by-side, with the proviso that government should not do what private industry can do better. The government should be responsible to set up the regulatory and legal frameworks required for private investors to have confidence. The need is for both a healthy public sector and a healthy private sector. Therefore, Ethiocracy allows state ownership in the following situations: (a) services like transportation and water on which everybody depends; (b) key industries such as energy and power that are necessary and integral to the functioning of others; (c) some undertakings that require so much capital—either to start a new industry or modernize an old one—that the state alone may have the resources; and (d) whenever a monopoly is appropriate, such as power generation, because it is of the kind over which the public can have the most control by owning it through the state.

Beyond exercising political leadership, the ruling party in Ethiopia today is occupied directly in the technical and economic management of production. The over-bearing involvement of the political party bureaucracy extends to the equivalent role of board of directors in state enterprises. Party dominance destroys confidence, and stifles initiative of government administrators and enterprise managers. Therefore, party cells in all government offices and industrial plants must be abolished.

Poverty may not necessarily be evidence of personal failure. Workers who are underpaid, unemployed, or disabled could be impoverished through no fault of their own. It is at times the duty of the government to supplement workers’ income not as an act of charity but as an act of social justice. A comprehensive social security system should be developed which would be compatible with the state of the economy. Ethiocracy promotes self-help rural community development programs by building on the strong work ethic and can-do spirit of Ethiopians.

For a state or an enterprise, knowledge and skills are its most valuable and reliable assets in institutional capacity building and with an outsize impact on organizational performance. Leadership development will be an investment in the future of Ethiopia and such training cost is soft infrastructural investment that can assure Ethiopia a return of maximum value-for-money (VfM). Therefore, Ethiocracy’s new national ethos of Ethiopia will be people-centered policy capable to unleash its human capital. By adopting a continuous improvement culture in business as well as government, leaders in Ethiopia will be able to optimize resources by doing work better, faster, and leaner. Knowledge is the engine that drives economic growth and and enables the state to overcome the dependency syndrome mindset. Ethiopia cannot eliminate poverty without first increasing and nurturing its intellectual capital. For instance, the future of our flag carrier Ethiopian Airlines doesn’t depend on its airplanes or route structure but on its people and their thinking abilities.

Governmental Reform. An important ministry that needs to be recognized in the area of the management of the economy is the Ministry of Finance. In view of the critical role this ministry plays in the national economy, the government must ensure that it is staffed with people of high standards of professionalism. Consideration should be given to (a) make the National Bank of Ethiopia independent of the government and responsible only to the Parliament, (b) liberalize the financial system, and (c) conduct annual stress tests of major banks.

Ethiopia is underdeveloped because it is undermanaged, making poverty a mis–management problem, because leadership matters. Ethiopia is an economic basket case (with millions still starving) not because her people failed, but because her leaders failed. What Ethiopia needs is leaders that measure up to her people’s greatness. I welcome Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed as the new inspirational and aspirational leader of Ethiopia. I feel he is a charismatic leader who can help us streamline and accelerate the change process from the Current State (where Ethiopia is) through a Transition State to the Desired Future State (where Ethiopia should be). The status quo of despotism under TPLF/EPRDF is not acceptable because the regime is a personification of our common enemies of tyranny, poverty, disease, corruption, and inter-ethnic conflicts resulting in 1.4 million citizens internally displaced in 2018 according to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre. I am hoping PM Abiy will be able to use his soft power to transform Ethiopia from TPLF/EPRDF’s mafia economy and ethnic apartheid that deconstructed Ethiopia to a genuine democracy where all citizens are equal before the law and their individual human rights are fully respected. ANC took issue with apartheid, not with whites, and was successful in fighting for the rights of all South Africans.  We too need to do the same in dismantling ethnic apartheid and mandate citizen-based politics; promote competition of ideas and disallow the formation of political parties based on ethnic identity.

In the spirit of “All for One Ethiopia and One Ethiopia for All,” the appropriate mechanism or instrument for PM Abiy Ahmed to facilitate the transition process should be, to firstly initiate the big and bold step to form a ‘transitional government of national unity,’ otherwise, follow his own mantra of መደመር and become our ድልድይ by engaging the citizens of Ethiopia in a participatory democracy. Accordingly, he should organize a National Constitutional Convention (prior to the next election) comprising of district delegates elected by popular votes and experts with relevant knowledge to assemble in order to debate and replace or amend the current Constitution within 4 to 5 months and to be ratified by a referendum of the citizens. To expedite their research and for benchmarking purpose, the team can refer to this website https://www.constituteproject.org/ where all the constitutions in the world are published.

By the way, speaking of a new or an amended constitution, I have quarrel with the Amharic word ሕገ-መንግሥት for the word Constitution because it conjures up to me የዘውድ ሕገ-መንግሥት፣ የደርግ ሕገ-መንግሥት፣ እና የኢሕአዴግ ሕገ-መንግሥት። ርዕሰ-ብሔር እና ርዕሰ-መስተዳድር እንደምንለው I hope we will adopt የኢትዮጵያ ርዕሰ-ሕግ for the Ethiopian Constitution as that conveys the supreme law of the state and not of the government keeping in mind that ኢሕአዴግ ሕገ-መንግሥቱን የራሱ የድርጅታዊ ሰነድ ያደረገ፣ጎሳ-ተኮር መንግሥት የደነገገ ከፋፋይ አምባገነን ነው። ትግላችን ግን ኢትዮዽያዊነትን አስቀደሞ የግለሰብ ዜግነትን ያማከለ፣ ከሥዩመ-እግዚአብሔር ወደ ሥዩመ-ፓርቲ የተሸጋገረውን አሁን ወደ ሥዩመ-ሕዝብ ለማሳደግ፣ ከሕዝብ ለሕዝብና በሕዝብ ድምፅ የተመረጠና በሕግ የበላይነት የሚዳኝ ሕገ-ሕዝብ አስተዳደር ለመፍጠር ነው። መንግሥት እና አገርን አንድ አድርጎ የማየት ልማድም ማብቃት አለበት። A state is a soverign entity that exercises its sovereignty through its government. A state is permanent whereas a government is temporary.

Before government (or civil society), there was the state of nature. Since everybody is primarily self-centered, we form governments to protect ourselves from one another. People rise against governments to exercise their right to self-preservation (natural right). Law must conform to human nature. The source of law must therefore be the people. Citizens must have not only the right but also the duty to overthrow an unjust government. As Thomas Aquinas said, “Resistance to a tyrant is obedience to the laws of God.”

The Ethiopian Diaspora that used to be ridiculed and ostracized by the late PM Meles Zenawi is now considered to be a hidden treasure and embraced by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed who invited us to be engaged in the nation-building process. By the way, due consideration needs to be given to enacting a dual citizenship law for the mutual benefit of both the state and the Ethiopian Diaspora and thereby enhance PM Abiy’s bridge-building effort. Visioning is about crafting Ethiocracy’s compelling desired future state of Ethiopia that is people centered and talent/knowledge driven that could optimize the value of its human capital by creating the right kind of an enabling environment for its people to help Ethiopia accomplish what the immigrants of USA and American-Born-Chinese have achieved for their respective countries.

Ethiopia tried class politics under the Dergue and then ethnic politics under TPLF/EPRDF; it is now time for national politics where we put love of country before party. Political parties also serve their party best when they serve their country first. Political parties and civil society organizations as well as patriotic individuals should break with factional politics to fully respond to the mantra of “ዛሬ ትብብር፣ ነገ ውድድር.” It is time for collaboration to save Ethiopia first from both its internal and external enemies. Accordingly, in preparation for the next free and fair election, I call upon opposition political parties to be on the right side of history and choose to make a difference by engaging in win-win collaboration and craft a party platform or manifesto that offers our ‘citizens’ credible and viable alternative to TPLF/EPRDF.

TPLF/EPRDF is driven by the hate politics of ethnocentrism. Our driving force is the love of our country. Love will triumph over hate. Ethiocracy does not tolerate the toxic ethnocentric narrative. All Ethiopians have suffered under irresponsible, illegitimate and incompetent leaders for a long time. Ethiocracy looks forward to build a new Ethiopia under a new citizen-based civic nationalism with greater ideals of liberty, equality, and fraternity.

123 years ago at the Battle of Adwa, patriotic Ethiopians of all ethnic groups and all religions proved that Ethiopia is greater than the sum of its parts. We are fortunate that we have a glorious past such as a multi-ethnic nation-state, recognized as the cradle of humanity with our own Ge’ez alphabet and the Victory of Adwa, all representing our Ethiopian exceptionalism. But the challenge of the day is to make our own glory. Ethiopia’s gorgeous mosaic is best exemplified by the spirit of unity in diversity that serves our common good. We are stronger together. When we are indivisible, we will be invincible.  ብዙ ሆነን አንድ የሚያደርገን ኢትዮጵያዊነታችን ነው። ለኢትዮጵያውያን ልዩነታችን ጌጣችን እና የፈጠራ ምንጫችን፣ አንድነታችን ኃይላችን ነው።

To summarize, Ethiocracy is a home-grown solution to Ethiopia’s chronic political and economic problems. We have been constrained by continued poverty and aggravated by the cancer of ethnic politics for the past 28 years. The siloed mindset of tribalism divides the pie when much greater emphasis should be placed on how we can enlarge the pie. Ethiopia needs a breakthrough strategy to revitalize its sense of one nation by overcoming the ethnical divide by nurturing a nation building foundation based on the solidarity of its multi-ethnic nation state.

Ethiocracy provides a roadmap for democracy and development and relieves Ethiopia from the dependency syndrome mindset by deploying a people-centered and knowledge-based economy where creativity and innovation are harnessed and Ethiopia will be capable to unleash its human capital and conquer the widespread famine, disease, and illiteracy by the year 2039. The ability to read and write is the first step in human development; and to enrich all our languages I propose that we use the Ge’ez alphabet for all the languages of Ethiopia.

Ethiopians yearn for modernizing Ethiopia by transforming it from the tradition of oxen-ploughing and thatched-roof huts. To transfer the passion of the unemployed young from the street to rural development, they need to be actively engaged and fulfilled in an all-out effort of nation-building starting with agriculture to move the nation from subsistence way of life to commercial farming. Community development principles of diligent work ethic, self-help, and cooperation need to be inculcated in the minds of the young to pull the country out of poverty.

I appreciate that PM Abiy is busy correcting the various mistakes of TPLF/EPRDF, but I am concerned that he is putting in the back-burner the deeply disturbing matter of death and destruction that has engulfed various communities of Ethiopia because he seems to be lacking the political will or courage to address the root cause of Ethiopia’s problems which is the destructive ethnic federalism (Zenawism) that is mandated by TPLF/EPRDF’s Constitution.

A healthy debate and public dialogue is required to address issues of whether Ethiopia should have a unicameral or bicameral legislature, unitary or federal system, a parliamentary or presidential system. After a consensus on these issues is reached, Ethiopia would be able to either replace or amend its Constitution. Then the nation could be prepared for elections.

The type of government that we could all be proud of was best described by Thomas Paine over two centuries ago: “When it shall be said in any country in the world, my poor are happy, neither ignorance nor distress is to be found among them; my jails are empty of prisoners, my streets of beggars; the aged are not in want; the taxes are not oppressive; the rational world is my friend, because I am the friend of its happiness. When these things can be said, then may that country boast of its Constitution and Government.”

Our compatriots at home have been incarcerated in droves and many others have sacrificed their lives in their struggle to liberate Ethiopia from TPLF/EPRDF’s tyrannical rule, and this article is my effort to help transform Ethiopia from Ethnocracy (power to the ethnos or groups) to Ethiocracy (power to the people of Ethiopia).  No government can fail completely for long and remain in power. Ethiopia will be liberated, and dictatorship will be replaced by democracy, because as the African saying goes, “Nobody can stop the rain!”

Abate Kassa is the author of Value Analysis and Engineering Reengineered and የፋይዳ ትንታኔ እና ህንደሳ

I welcome your views about Ethiocracy. Thanks.  kassa.abate@gmail.com

The post ETHIOCRACY, Ethiopia’s Socially Responsible Market Economy appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News & Breaking News: Your right to know!.

BY Alemayehu G. Mariam

It would be an understatement for me to say what happened on June 22 2019 in Bahr Dar, Amhara region of Ethiopia and in Addis Ababa has caused me deep sorrow and anguish. Words fall short in expressing my regrets.

On June 22, 2019, we lost some of our best and brightest political and military leaders in a hail of bullets at the hands of misguided gunmen.

It was a senseless act of political violence reminiscent of Ethiopia’s “Dark Ages”, the last 27 years.

The utopian Ethiopian I am, I asked, “Why must brother kill brother?”

How appropriate poet Percy Bysshe Shelley’s edict in his Declaration of Rights, “Man has no right to kill his brother. It is no excuse that he does so in uniform: he only adds the infamy of servitude to the crime of murder.”

It was a crime of murder that was committed by individuals in uniform on June 22, 2019.

It was a murder that smacks of Shakespearean tragedy.

Brutus was a close ally of General Julius Caesar. But he grew disaffected and joined a faction that opposed Caesar. When that faction was defeated, Brutus surrendered and Caesar granted him amnesty. Much later, Brutus joined another plot which ended in the assassination of Caesar. Brutus committed suicide in the end.

As Caesar was being stabbed to death, he recognized Brutus among the assassins and as he lay dying, Shakespeare wrote, uttered the words, “Et tu Brute?” (Even you, Brutus?).

The political leaders who were massacred in Bahr Dar — Amhara Region President Dr. Ambachew Mekonnen, Attorney General Megbaru Kebede, Advisor Ezez Wassie and others — toiled to free the general who executed them in cold blood from a nearly decade-long imprisonment.

They got that general amnesty and made him a free man. Then they extended him the great honor of joining their leadership to serve the people in the Amhara region.

They trusted their killer as a brother, as a colleague and as a comrade-in-arms. But he proved to be the proverbial man in Ethiopia who “has butter on his mouth but a dagger in his heart.”

I wondered if the last words of the young leaders to the general spraying them with bullets were, “Why? Et tu Brutus! Is this how you repay us for our kindness? ‘No good deed shall go unpunished.’”

The military leaders who were killed in Addis Ababa – General Seare Mekonnen and General Gezai Abera – were brothers in arms to the rogue general who masterminded the Bahr Dar massacres. They served their country honorably, patriotically and above and beyond the call of duty.

All Ethiopians owe a debt of eternal gratitude to the political and military leaders who were massacred on June 22, 2019.

But the general that went rogue and became a villainous murderer was once our friend, our hero and our faithful brother too.

Like Brutus, he was once an honorable man who stood for justice and equality and against oppression and tyranny.

He was once loved by so many of his compatriots for all his sacrifices, for his courage and defiance and for his suffering during long imprisonment.

But our friend and brother suddenly turned into a brutish beast and lost his reason.

He became ambitious and the price he exacted for his ambition was the death of our best and brightest leaders.

I am still reeling in thought trying to fathom the nature of the mind that believes at the end of the second decade of the 21st century that power comes out of the barrel of the gun.

I have come to the conclusion that only the weak will seek power from the barrel of the gun.

The strong fight with the power of their ideas. They need no guns because they know guns are no match for ideas.

Victor Hugo wrote, “There is one thing stronger than all the armies in the world, and that is an idea whose time has come.”

The time has come for many ideas to flower in Ethiopia.

But the time for ideas of war, hate, prejudice, division and exclusion is long gone.

The time for the idea of getting political power by the barrel of the gun has passed.

The time now is for ideas of peace, reconciliation, forgiveness, unity, equality.

The time now is for resolving differences by exchanging ideas, presenting new and creative ideas and letting the people decide in the marketplace of ideas which ideas are best.

But as I ponder deeply about the assassination of our distinguished leaders, I have come to the compelling conclusion that they were not murdered by a demented general and his lackeys but an idea that had poisoned their minds and hearts.

It is an idea that drove ordinary human beings with goodness in their hearts and reason in their minds to become stone cold killers.

It is an idea that pulled the trigger fingers of those who committed the cowardly act.

It is an idea that has become a cancer in the bodies and souls of all Ethiopians for the past 27 years.

It is a toxic idea all Ethiopians have been force-fed for the past 27 years.

It is a viral idea that has been programmed deep in the minds of every Ethiopian for the past 27 years.

Those who pulled the trigger on June 22 were programmed robots. They were in a state of mind control. They were brainwashed.

That idea, the software that guided the trigger fingers of the killers on June 22 is “ethnic federalism”.

What is ethnic federalism?

Aaaah!

Ethnic federalism is the greatest scam, con job and and finest snake oil of the Tigrean People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) ever sold to the Ethiopian people.

It is a poison pill administered daily to every Ethiopian by the TPLF.

Ethnic federalism is bastardized federalism.

It is perverted federalism.

It is fake federalism.

Ethnic federalism is to federalism as fool’s gold is to gold; astroturf is to grass; fake news is to news; silk flowers are to real flowers; margarine it to butter; naugahyde is to leather; military music is to music and imitation crab meat is to real crab meat.

Ethnic federalism looks like federalism, talks like federalism and walks like federalism.

But at close inspection, ethnic federalism is stark naked ethnic apartheid.

That idea of ethnic federalism gave birth to ethnic homelands called kilils or kililistans in Ethiopia just like racial apartheid created bantustans or black homelands in South Africa.

That idea of ethnic federalism created a nation of ethnic robots running a software program that always chooses the wrong binary code.

The people who committed the atrocities on June 22, like many others in Ethiopia, ran the ethnic federalism software and chose hate over love; division over unity; strife over dialogue; revenge over forgiveness; war over peace and falsehood over truth.

So, I say our brothers who died on June 22 were murdered by an idea. By a piece of viral software.

We all carry the ethnic federalism virus in our hearts and minds. The only difference is some of us are better able to keep it under control while others act out in wanton violence.

Let us not be smug in our holier-than-thou attitude.

But for the grace of God, go we.

Let us look around. Let us look into our hearts and minds.

How many of us nurse and harbor the hateful ideology of ethnic federalism?

When we point an accusatory finger at the killers on June 22, let us look at the three fingers that are pointing directly at our hearts.

Let us be mindful the leaders we lost on June 22 are only the latest victims of ethnic federalism.

The idea of ethnic federalism has been killing, maiming and displacing hundreds of thousands of Ethiopians for the past 27 years.

Unless we remain vigilant and defiant, the ethnic federalism that killed our brothers today will kill our Mother Ethiopia tomorrow.

But how do we fight and win against this wicked idea and ideology of ethnic federalism?

In June 1940, when France was under withering Nazi attack driven by an ideology of racial supremacy, the Allies asked, “How are we going to win?”

Winston Churchill on job barely a month spoke to Parliament. “In casting up this dread balance-sheet, contemplating our dangers with a disillusioned eye, I see great reason for intense vigilance and exertion, but none whatever for panic or despair.”

I, too, contemplating the dangers of ethnic federalism with a disillusioned eye, am filled with dread of potential civil war and civil strife.

But I am in neither a state of panic nor of despair.

Indeed, I see great reason for intense vigilance and exertion.

That’s why we must always remember the price of liberty, the price of peace, the price of justice and equality is eternal vigilance.

Over the past year, we have witnessed evil never sleeps nor the wicked rest.

I see the hands of the Forces of Darkness behind the trigger fingers of the killers on June 22.

The Forces of Darkness think they cannot be seen because they live in the valley of the shadow of death and orchestrate evil throughout the land.

But we can see them in a candle light of truth. Let it be known we will not trip or fall into the traps they set every day.

We must remain eternally vigilant against those who seek political power through the barrel of the gun.

I am more hopeful than ever the martyrdom of the brothers we lost will usher in a new era of civilized politics where we fight to win hearts and minds of the Ethiopian people with the weapon of uplifting ideas.

I am more hopeful than ever that the blood of the patriots shed on June 22, 2019 will not have been in vain.

Their blood will nourish the oak tree of liberty, democracy and peace in Ethiopia.

There is no point in finger pointing now.

We all share the blame for what happened on June 22.

In July 2008, I wrote a commentary entitled, “We Have Met the Enemy, and He is Us”:

Many years ago, there used to be an old comic strip called “Pogo” which appeared regularly in American newspapers. The funny animal characters in Pogo lived in a swamp community, which figuratively represented the diversity of American society and issues facing it. That community began to disintegrate because its residents were incapable of communicating with each other to deal with the most important and urgent issues facing them. They wasted valuable time on non-issues. One day, Pogo saw the swamp they live in filled with debris and litter. In reflective frustration he sighed, “We have met the enemy. He is us!”

Pogo has a very good point. As members of the Ethiopian pro-democracy movement we should look in the mirror and ask basic questions of ourselves: Why can’t we unite as a global force for justice and human rights advocacy in Ethiopia? Why can’t we build strong bridges across ethnic lines and use the language of human rights to communicate with each other? Why don’t we shout together — and often — a mighty shout of protest when the human rights of our Oromo brothers and sisters are trampled by Zenawi day in and day out? Or defend the Amharas when they are maligned as the persecutors of “Tigreans, minority groups and Muslims”? Or speak unreservedly against those who seek to paint all Tigreans with a broad brush of ethnic hatred? Why are we politely silent about the plight of our people in the Ogaden, the Afar and Gambella regions? Where is our outrage — where are our tears — when they were bombed, strafed and slaughtered? Driven from their homes and made refugees by the hundreds of thousands? Why aren’t we joining hands — locking hands — to defend the territorial integrity of the motherland? And so on… Is Zenawi to blame for any of the above? Pogo is right: “We have met the enemy, and he is us.

What I wrote in July 2008 holds compellingly true in July 2019.

If ideas can kill, ideas can also give life. Choose life. Choose Medemer.

How do we fight and win against the toxic idea of ethnic federalism?

In my March 2015 commentary, I explained how the poison of ethnic federalism has destroyed Ethiopia:

The TPLF constitution is designed to create a perpetual disunion, among the Ethiopian people by dividing and corralling them like cattle into insular “nations and nationalities”. By segregating the people of Ethiopia into communal, linguistic, cultural and regional groups, the T-TPLF put a constitutional scheme in place that would permanently and irreversibly destroy the social glue of tolerance, harmony and understanding that has kept them united as a people for millennia.

But how do we detoxify the poison of ethnic federalism in the blood stream of Ethiopia?

I believe we have the antidote, the silver bullet, that will rid Ethiopia of ethnic federalism once and for all.

The antidote is an idea called Medemer.

Medemer is an idea that resonates the maxim, “United we stand, divided we fall.”

It is an idea that resonates an old Ethiopian saying. “If spiders’ web could be made into twine, it could tie up a lion.”

If 100 million Ethiopians could only lend each other a hand (“Medemer”), they could dismantle and root out ethnic apartheid.

If 100 million Ethiopians could only lend each other a hand (“Medemer”), they could uplift not only Ethiopia but also Africa.

“Medemer” means to help each other. To help means to give a hand, not a handout but a hand up.

Medemer is our roadmap out of the mountainous wilderness of tribalism, poverty, disease and ignorance.

I have written on the idea of Medemer on a number of occasions over the past year.

I have also written on the “The Praxis of Medemer in the Horn of Africa”.

I even created an equation on the “physics” of Medemer:

Are there teachable moments form the tragedy of June 22 2019?

“Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.”

We must draw lessons from the crimes of June 22.

Lesson #1: “For all they that take the sword (or gun) shall perish with the sword (gun).”

Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. taught, “Always avoid violence. If you succumb to the temptation of using violence in your struggle, unborn generations will be the recipients of a long and desolate night of bitterness, and your chief legacy to the future will be an endless reign of meaningless chaos.” There will be no meaningless chaos in Ethiopia today or in the future.

Lesson #2: Mahatma Gandhi wrote, “Hate the sin and not the sinner is a precept which though easy enough to understand is rarely practiced, and that is why the poison of hatred spreads in the world.”

Let’s be honest. The evil that lurked in the hearts of those who killed also resides in the hearts of each one of us.

Let’s us not feel smug in “We are holier than thou” attitude.

Let him or her who has not ethnic and communal hatred in their heart be the first one to cast stones.

Lesson #3: We all share the shame and blame.

What happened on June 22 has brought shame and blame to all Ethiopians.

Many have called to tell me of their deep disappointment.

What happened in Bahr Dar is a day of shame for Amhara people. Our enemies will forever say ‘Amhara only kills Amhara’. Amhara cannot be trusted. The killers have given a black eye to all Amharans. Amharans are like crabs in a basket. When one tries to get out, the others will pull him down. The killers did the dastardly deed of our enemies and so on.

(There is even one washed up foreign diplomat who tried to degrade and humiliate Amhara people as political predators. I will guarantee NEVER AGAIN will that old fool slander and scandalize any Ethiopians, let alone Amhara people.)

What happened on June 22 has absolutely nothing to do with Amhara people.

What has happened over the past 27 years under TPLF rule has absolutely nothing to do with the Tigrean people.

It is unfair to scandalize and lump all Amharans with a few demented killers and convict them of guilt by association.

It is unfair to scandalize and lump all Tigreans with a few corrupt thugs and convict them of guilt by association.

We should never generalize and stereotype an entire people by what good or evil a few individuals do.

We should never judge the apple orchard by few rotten apples.

Lesson #4: The evil that men do lives after them. Let us not condemn to eternal damnation the misguided and misbegotten individuals who committed the atrocities on June 22. But let us use the ugly experience to teach the youth the admonition of Niccolò Machiavelli, “He who blinded by ambition, raises himself to a position whence he cannot mount higher, must fall with the greatest loss.”

What can I say of those who sought power in the sword and not the word?

I will paraphrase the words of Marc Antony in Julius Caesar to express my feelings:

Friends, Ethiopians, countrymen, lend me your ears.
I come to eulogize my brothers who were cut down in the prime of their lives, not to send their killer to eternal damnation.
The evil that men do lives after them.
The good is oft interred with their bones.

So, let it be with the misbegotten who chose to walk on the dark side, on the path of death and destruction, on June 22, 2019.

Lesson #6: Ethiopia will have peace when the power of love of Ethiopia overpowers the love of power to rule Ethiopia.

“The way of peace is the way of love. Love is the greatest power on earth. It conquers all things.”

Without peace, there is no democracy, human rights, good governance. There is no Ethiopia without peace.

There shall be no peace for the wicked.

But have no doubts.

Ethiopia will have peace.

“Blessed are the peacemakers.”

It is a maxim that guides those who seek to deliver the message of peace and reconciliation to humanity.

It is a message that teaches true peace is found between individuals or nations by restoring broken relationships in a reconciliation process.

Ethiopia is truly blessed to have a blessed young peacemaker.

He walks the talk of peace, forgiveness, truth and reconciliation.

God smiled on Ethiopia when He gave her Abiy Ahmed.

They died with their boots on!

I shall always observe June 22, 2019 as “Peace Builder Patriots Day” because every one of the leaders gunned down in cold blood driven by the ambition for power sacrificed their lives for the peace and prosperity of all Ethiopians.

June 22, 2019 was our darkest day. It was the finest hour of our fallen brothers.

“A coward dies a thousand times before his death, but the valiant taste of death but once.”

Our brothers tasted death unafraid and valiantly living out the oath of service they took before their people.

They died manning their posts.

They died with their boots on.

Their patriotic deeds shall live forever.

Today, our hearts are in the coffins with our brothers.

We will pause for just a while, and soon we shall put our shoulders to the wheel and noses to the grindstone and finish the job our brothers started.

May they all rest in peace in the hearts and minds of the Ethiopian people.

May their families be showered with blessings and comfort.

WE SHALL OVERCOME!

The post Al Mariam’s Monday Commentaries: A Eulogy for Brothers We Lost on June 22, 2019 in Ethiopia appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News & Breaking News: Your right to know!.

After launching the most ambitious reforms in his country’s history Ethiopia’s Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, is under threat. The murder of his army chief of staff amid an alleged coup attempt in the Amhara region has highlighted the vulnerability of the reform process. The BBC’s Africa Editor, Fergal Keane, analyses the challenge facing the continent’s youngest leader.

Just a few weeks ago, Abiy Ahmed was riding high and feted across Africa as a reformer.

He had released political prisoners, appointed women to more than half of his cabinet posts, persuaded a noted dissident to head the country’s election board, and staged an historic rapprochement with neighbouring Eritrea after decades of conflict.

When I met him in December last year he was brimming with confidence, even telling me that the world should look to Ethiopia “to see how people can live together in peace.”

Millions at risk

Now after an alleged coup attempt against the Amhara regional government which killed his army chief of staff and close ally, General Seare Mekonnen, Mr Abiy’s position and the future of his reforms look much less secure.

The alleged instigator of the coup was shot dead and a wave of arrests followed. But nobody with any knowledge of Ethiopia believes this is the end of the matter.

Image copyrightREUTERS

With nearly 2.5 million people displaced by ethnic violence and deep divisions within the ruling EPRDF coalition, Mr Abiy is acutely vulnerable.

He is to some extent a victim of his own reformist zeal.

Ethiopia is made up of nine different self-governing ethnic regions.

Ethnic nationalism was kept ruthlessly in check under the Marxist Dergue regime and during the two decades of EPRDF rule that followed. The opening of the political space under Mr Abiy has lifted a lid on ethnic tensions.

Ethiopia’s system of ethnic federalism was always going to be vulnerable to politicians playing on atavistic sentiments.

And the speed of Mr Abiy’s reforms has unsettled the four party coalition that makes up the ruling party. There is acute alienation among Tigrayans who comprise just 6% of the population but dominated the previous government.

‘We want you to leave’

In Oromia and Amhara – the two most populous states – smaller parties have emerged appealing to crude ethnic sentiment. The man suspected to have masterminded the Amhara coup attempt was also accused of recruiting an ethnic militia.

In the Somali ethnic region I visited a refugee camp that was host to some of the 700,000 people who had fled ethnic clashes with their Oromo neighbours. Think of the scale of those numbers and the individual suffering involved.

Image copyrightAFP

I recall the words of an elderly woman who had travelled for weeks to reach the camp.

“We were living in peace but the Oromos living in that area said: ‘Your numbers along with other Ethiopians is growing and we want you to leave’. Then conflict started afterwards and they slaughtered our men and killed our children, and that is why we came here looking for peace.”

Having reported on ethnic conflict in Europe, Asia and Africa I found her words chillingly familiar.

The experience of Ethiopia under Mr Abiy underlines the old truism that the most vulnerable moment for any authoritarian state is when it starts to reform. Under dictatorship ethnic hatred does not vanish. It simply gets driven underground.

The examples throughout history are numerous. Consider the case of the former Yugoslavia which descended into a series of savage civil wars after the end of Joseph Broz Tito’s long reign.

But Yugoslavia did not descend into civil war simply because of so-called “ancient hatreds”. It took unscrupulous leaders – notably Slobodan Milosevic of Serbia and Franjo Tudjman of Croatia – to create the horrors of ethnic cleansing in late 20th Century Europe.

Mr Abiy is not of the same ilk. His broad vision is progressive and inclusive.

But I recall a conversation with one of his critics in Tigray, Getachew Reda: “Abiy is a very driven, very ambitious man. He symbolizes the kind of ambition, the kind of courage to storm the heavens that youth would represent, but he also represents the kind of tendency to gloss over things, the kind of tendency to try to telescope decades into months, years… to rush things.”

Ethiopia’s prime minister now needs to move carefully. The wave of arrests that followed the attempted coup – more than 250 people are in custody – runs the risk of deepening resentment in Amhara.

The blockage of the internet in recent weeks may have been intended to frustrate the mobilising capacity of his enemies, it felt very far from the open government Mr Abiy promised. The country is awash with rumour and speculation.

Key facts: Abiy Ahmed

Image copyrightGETTY IMAGES

• Born to a Muslim father and a Christian mother on 15 August 1976
• Speaks fluent Afan Oromo, Amharic, Tigrinya and English
• Joined the armed struggle against the Marxist Derg regime in 1990
• Served as a UN peacekeeper in Rwanda in 1995
• Entered politics in 2010
• Briefly served as minister of science and technology in 2016
• Became prime minister in April 2018

Elections are due next year but already senior officials are doubting whether they can go ahead. Last year’s local elections were postponed because of unrest.

I met the head of the election board, Birtukan Mideksa in Addis Ababa last December when there was still optimism about polls. She is a former dissident invited home from exile by Mr Abiy.

“To have, like, a former opposition leader, former dissident, to lead an institution with, you know, significant independence of action, you know, it means a lot,” she told me.

“So, of course, it needs a lot of collaboration, to institutionalize democracy, and have meaningful election and free media on, you know, independent institutions. But I’m very hopeful we will do differently this time around.”

Now she is warning that elections may have to be delayed, telling Reuters news agency that if “the security of the country is not going to improve, we can’t tell voters to go and vote”.

Yet cancelling elections is likely to increase polarization. The balance between security and freedom could not be harder to achieve.

Mr Abiy’s great challenge is to build a coalition for change across the ethnic groups. That will take persuasion.

It will demand restraint. And it will require balancing of groups and interests in government. Besides his abundant youthful energy Abiy Ahmed is going to need more of the wisdom of age.

Source – BBC

The post Abiy Ahmed’s reforms in Ethiopia lift the lid on ethnic tensions appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News & Breaking News: Your right to know!.

By Damo Gotamo

The speech of prime minister Abiye on his yearly report to the parliament, particularly his response to the Kelil question in the South, has thrilled the residents of Awassa. After the speech, people were seen high-fiving each other in the streets of the city.

For all residents of the city who have been under siege by the Sidama extremists for a year, the prime minster’s firm response was the only good thing that has happened to them since the new leadership came to power. For many, the tough response was long overdue. The response was what people have been expecting. The saying better late than never couldn’t be more appropriate. I don’t think the people in Awassa would show the emotions they have shown if the Ethiopian national football team were to win a World Cup.

Awassa residents have suffered under Sidama ethnic entrepreneurs for a long time, and the spectacular forewarning of the prime minster may be the sign of good thing to come. Many are hoping good things will happen soon. The frustration of Dr. Abiye was born out of many criminal activities and mindless acts of the Sidama extremists and their minion the so called Ejjeettos. People in Awassa, including myself, have been demanding the government take sever action against the ethnic lords in the city. When it comes to the extremist elements in the region, Awassa residents are behind the prime minster. What prompted the prime minster to fire a warning shot?

No other rouge group has challenged the patience of the new administration like the Sidama extremists. The dictators of the past regimes wouldn’t have tolerated the rogue group the way the Abiye administration did. Time and again, the Sidama ethnic entrepreneurs have acted like a spoiled child. Those who had been hiding during the 27 years of the TPLF rule, suddenly woke up from their hibernation to pose a threat to the country during the time of hope.

Barely a few months after Dr. Abiye became the prime minster of the country, the extremists ordered the killings and displacements of peaceful Wolita residents of Awassa. Many innocent people were burned alive. Thousands lost their homes and properties. Women and children stayed in shelters for several months. The effect of the heinous crime is still lingering in the minds of many residents of the city. To the dismay of many residents of the city, the government didn’t take action to punish the perpetrators of the crime. Emboldened by the government’s inaction, the ethnic entrepreneurs have continued to commit several crimes in a span of a year.

Shortly after the Wolita massacre, the Sidama extremists blazed to the ground a big market place in the center of the city. The shops belonged to the non-Sidamas residents of the city. People who worked hard to own small businesses were left penniless overnight. The motive of the heinous crime was to chase out the non-Sidamas from the market and give the place to a Sidama business man. Many people are still out on the streets begging to survive. As yet, no one has been apprehended to face justice.

Many times during the past months, the Sidama ethnic entrepreneurs have forced government institutions, schools, banks, and other businesses to latch their doors during working days. As a result, for many days, the government institutions couldn’t provide services to their customers. Schools closed their doors to students. Children couldn’t attend school on a regular, which has affected their progress. Banks lost in  millions negatively impacting their businesses. Even some  factories at the Awassa Industrial Park had to cease operations due to the security concerns caused by ethnic thugs. Again, the government chose not to act.

The Sidama ethnic entrepreneurs have used football stadiums as a convenient venue to promote their political agenda. They have trained and marched unemployed youth to the stadiums, on many occasions, to insult and taunt players and fans.

The lawlessness at football matches in Awassa reached a climax when the notorious Ejjeetto with the help of the city’s police physically attacked football fans. Fans, including off duty members of the military, who were in attendance to watch the match between Wolita Dicha and Sidama police were assaulted and injured. The members of the Ejjeetto continued their crime spree outside the stadium by engaging in mass looting and destruction of properties.

Worried by the ongoing violence at football stadiums in the country, on May 7, 2009, I wrote a short piece entitled, “Suspend Football in Ethiopia.” I was thrilled to hear the prime minister rose the issue to the parliament and vowed to take appropriate action against ethnic entrepreneurs who use the government money to launch their ethnic agendas.

Three months ago, the Sidama ethnic entrepreneurs had carried out one of the brazen acts to date. Their action was eerily similar to what took place in Bahri Dar a week ago except no that no shots were fired. The criminals easily passed the security check, which was protected by the Southern Kelil Police Force. They entered into the meeting that was taking place among the members of the Southern Nations and Nationalities and People’s Region (SNNPR). They removed the country’s flag and placed their rag, and beat and injured many members of the party. A government official sustained serious injury to his body.

The Police Force, which was supposed to protect the government officials, did nothing to stop the thugs. Apparently, as I have later found out, the Sidama extremists easily infiltrated the force and attacked the government officials. It isn’t difficult to imagine what would have happened if the criminals had carried guns. Once again, the government ignored the crime and failed to bring the perpetrators to justice.

In addition to the above criminal acts, the Sidama extremists have been engaged in extortion, forceful displacements, harassment, and economic crimes in the city. In the midst of all these illegal acts, the government didn’t punish the criminals.

Motivated by their prolonged crimes and the inaction of the government, the Sidama ethnic entrepreneurs have openly started bragging about declaring their Kelil on July 18, 2019. They have told us that they have prepared their own constitution and flag. People who are preparing to declare a new country don’t brag the way the Sidama extremists have been bragging.

Politically naive people with a third grade education, who have infested the government bureaucracy in Awassa don’t realize what their illegal action would mean to the fragile  peace and stability of the country. They think the government that squashed Abdi Mohammed Omar(Abdi lley) and his well armed Liyue force in a matter of days would succumb to a few extremists, who would run to the countryside if a single shot is fired.

Extremists who have no courage to show their faces while sitting on the back of their motorcycles and leading young people to distribute the peace of Awassa, thought that declaring a Kelli is as easy as harassing helpless street vendors. Declaring Kelli illegally isn’t as easy as accepting a bribe.

The people of the Southern Kelil, especially residents of Awassa can’t tolerate the empty bravado and pompous speech of the ethnic extremists any longer. People were extremely upset with the recent illegal meetings in the hotel conference rooms(hotel owners are forced to allow their conference rooms for free) called by ethnic entrepreneurs to lecture people about the new Kelil. In one of the meetings, the non-Sidamas were told how to behave if a new ‘Sidama Kelil’ is declared. If any resident leaves Awassa after a new Kelil is declared, they were told, he/she will never be allowed to enter Awassa again! The Sidama extremists are extremely bold and full of themselves.

It isn’t difficult to see that the extremists in the South of the country have serious problems. Those who didn’t commit a single crime during the twenty-seven years of the TPLF rule, resorted to all sorts of criminal acts in the last one year. Since Abiye came to power, they have acted as if they are above the law. They have miserably failed to understand that exercising one’s democratic rights comes with responsibility.

The extremists mistook the government’s extreme patience as a sign of weakness. They became laws unto themselves. They chose to genuflect to ethnic lords and the lobbying offices of ethnic chiefs like Juhar Mohammed to achieve their wicked agenda. Instead of heeding the advice of the government officials within the SNNPR and their brethren in the South, the Sidama ethnic entrepreneurs chose to belittle them. The extremists thought spreading hateful messages about the new head of the Electoral Board and the Peace Minister would help their cause. Appeasing the Oromo extremists and waving the OLF flag, they thought, would take them to the promised land.

The Sidama Extremists should put their acts together. First, they need to stop fighting with their Sidama brothers that live in the surrounding Awassa areas who oppose Kelil. . Secondly, Kelil isn’t a path to heaven. Without the people of Ethiopia, even if they have Kelil, it means nothing. Look how you have destroyed the economic activities in the city within a year, chasing away home buyers and investors.

Thirdly, they need to stop day dreaming about owning everything in Awassa. Awassa belongs to its residents, and every Ethiopian has a stake in the city including those who are not included in the so-called southern region. The Ethiopian government has also heavily invested in the city and has an upper hand when it comes to matters that affect the lives of Ethiopians.

Prime minister Abiye has every reason to get angry with the extremists in the South. The people in Awassa Awassa have been angry for decades and they will continue to enjoy the prime minister’s display while awaiting positive in news about the status of Awassa.

The post Prime Minister Abiye’s Tough Stance Against Ethnic Extremists has Excited the Residents of Awassa  appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News & Breaking News: Your right to know!.

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The story began like this. According to a close family of General Seare Mekonnen, on 22 June Saturday around 7pm, the Commander in Chief of the Ethiopian Army was rushing home from his office to meet one of his friends waiting for him at his villa house located at the back of Desalgne Hotel around Bole Atlas. The commander reached home around 8pm and hugged his friend who was coming to say congratulations about Ma’asho Seare, his son, who graduated a week ago from the university. Then the two friends sat down in small chairs which were put on the balcony of the house.

The post General Seare’s last moments appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News & Breaking News: Your right to know!.

by Tecola W Hagos, 4 July 2019

Dedicated to the Memories of all Ethiopians brutally murdered and in Acknowledgment of those who were violently ejected from their homes and farms for political reasons in the 2018 – 2019 shameful Period in our recent history.

In General

I was born almost a decade after the dawn of the new Ethiopian era of Emperor Haile Selassie I, the greatest Ethiopian Emperor that Ethiopia ever had in its thousands of years of history. The Fascist Army was soundly beaten and kicked out from our sacred and ancient Motherland Ethiopia in 1941. The preservation of Sovereignty and freedom of the people of Ethiopia was paid for by the great sacrifices of numerous Ethiopian patriotic warriors and their support of numerous people of Ethiopia. However, it seems I am coming to the closing chapter of my life among terroristic and myopic leaders and their followers of minions in comparison with the earlier generative  society of great men and women among whom that I breathed my first gulp of air of a free country.

Before I sink further into squabbles, I would like to state few sentences of testimonial in admiration of Ethiopian Women. As a teacher in one of the most diverse colleges in the world, I had the enviable opportunity to interact with numerous students from all over the World for almost twenty years period. I was absolutely surprised in how human beings from such diverse background share similar sense of honor and self-worth, sense of freedom, sense of humor, and joy of life. Here is where I bring the issue of Ethiopian women: they are absolutely wonderful islands of stability and hope for the whole of Ethiopia not to mention their incredible physical beauty. In articles and video presentations, Ethiopian women activists are measured in their opinions and tonal in most of their suggestions of solutions to our current crises. In other words, their opinions are always nurturing and caring.  They always remind me of my own mother who had to endure so much misery in order to nurture her children. In fact, if truth be told, my initial support of Abiy Ahmed was not based on the political solutions he expounded, but due to his truly loving tribute to his Mother in his first formal state-speech.

I start this article in full acknowledgment of the highly responsible commentaries by the truly great scholar Taye Bogale author of “መራራ እውነት” and also in full appreciation of the indomitable Temesgen Desalegn “ድንቄም መፈንቅለ መንግስት”. At this time of great tribulation and unrest in Ethiopia, my conditional support for PM Abiy Ahmed has almost evaporated completely because of his lack of strong leadership and lack of clear goals for a united Sovereign State of Ethiopia, for he seems ever sinking into the quagmire of political intrigue of secessionists and destructive agents of Ethiopia’s historic enemies. He has subordinated our national security concerns to his personal playing footsy with known leaders of terroristic organizations and individual advocates of ethnic cleansing. He has turned a blind eye, and allowed Dawood Ibsa of  OLF and Jawar Mohammad of OMN, agents of destruction, to roam around freely providing them with expensive governmental security details and all the avenue for them to  spew their anti-Ethiopia propaganda inciting violence in several areas in Oromia Kilil and around Addis Ababa. Abiy Ahmed is now engaged in rounding up Amharas in the guise of controlling a fake coupe d’état participants.  The Amhara Kilil special forces were rightly organized recently to defend against the continued persecution and political devastation of Amharas in Oromia Kilil primarily, and in Amhara Kilil Oromo zone and elsewhere in Western part of Ethiopia occasionally.

Now that the octogenarian Herman Cohn is back in public forums with his idiotic and corrosive  assertions about Amhara political dominance prior to the coming into power of TPLF led EPRDF, I see the need to straighten such corrupted views that has fueled the last three decades of upheaval in Ethiopia. The last Amhara Emperor was Emperor some three hundred years ago. Cohn is the least credible individual with substandard almost Neanderthal intellectual capacity lacking in intelligent political views on Ethiopia and its history. Remember how he messed up the 1990-91 crises. Even his language in his several written opinions is extremely poor that one doubts if such pieces were written by a native English/American speaker. In the larger political scene concerning Ethiopia and the United States, I see age-old disconcerting relationship that is completely strange, bizarre, and incomprehensible. In fact, I find most past and present American politicians as anti-Ethiopia and some with truly despicable political views about Ethiopia and its future. Of course, there are a handful of Americans who have the depth of mind and intellect, such as President Franklin D Roosevelt, the late Prof Donald Levine, Ambassador Aurelia Erskine Brazeal et cetera, in understanding and appreciating of the Great Ethiopian Saga and history unmatched by any.

I must state clearly that what I appreciate here in the United States is the non-violent political evolutionary culture, period. On the other hand, I find the American population in general reflective of the arrogance and racist views of the current President, Donald Trump. For now, I leave most Americans in the racist gutter category of brutal and barbaric people who torture helpless migrant children with unmatched cruelty in the world: consider the inhuman treatment of helpless migrant children purposefully separated from their mothers and detained in Texas border facilities of windowless iron cages under horrendous conditions. One would expect a tsunamic response from the general American public against such brutality by the United States Government but not even a token number of Americans made even a ripple of protest on behalf the brutally abused and mistreated innocent children in custody at the Borders.

Amharas as Pillar of Ethiopia (analogue of the Horyu-Ji Temple Pagoda Pillar)

The first question is who are the Amharas? The existence of Amharas as a genetically determined specific homogenous ethnic group has been challenged by distinguished scholars and some political leaders. I believe Amharas do have some genetic markers in common and also cohesive cultural identity, such as the Amharic language, distinct Christian ritual, sophisticated cuisine et cetera. I suppose there are no pure “Amhara” people or individuals: Gondere (admixture of Agew, Gimira, Hebrew, Portuguise), Lasta (admixture of Agew, Beja), Wollo (admixture of Agew, Oromo, Arab), Shewa (admixture of Afar, Agew, Somali, Oromo). A terse and cynical poet [ታዛቢው March 3, 2018] discounting the diverse claims of individuals of Amhara descent from a particular northern ethnic background wrote the following:

የጎጠኞች ስርዓት ፣ ጥላቻ የሚዘራ

እንዳሻው መንዛሪ ፣ ለነሱ እስከሰራ

በረከት ህላዊ ፣ የሚባል አማራ

ምድቡ የነበር ፣ ከነትክላይ ጋራ

ፓርላማ ሰግስገው ፣ ባመቻቹት ሴራ

ዛሬ ባማራው ስም ፣ አይሰሩ ተሰራ

ሃጎስ ብሎ አማራ ፣ ድጋሚ ኪሳራ

አዋጅ አፀደቀ ፣ ለሞቱ ሳይራራ ።

I often search for a good metaphor or analogy in order to understand and/or explain complex phenomenon to myself and others. Thus, I found my metaphor for the Amhara people in architectural structure to portray accurately what makes Amharas as the pillar that held together Ethiopia from disintegration when almost all of its contemporaries are all gone. The Horyu-ij is over 1,500 years old Pagoda Temple found in Japan and has stood erect throughout the numerous Earthquakes that had leveled numerous structures all around it. The secret for its astounding structural integrity defying logic and our limited understanding of the laws of physics is the fact that its single central pillar is the only vertical pillar that is properly secured deep in the foundation. All other pillars are not anchored in the foundational floor but floating with horizontal beams anchoring to the central pillar a multilevel structure of six stories including the elaborate roof structure. Here is where I draw this eerie conclusion from the single pillar structural form as a metaphor to our longevity as a nation.

Ethiopia succeeded to survive this long because it was able to maintain a single power structure composed of the Orthodox Church and a myth of divinely chosen aristocratic succession of kings and emperors. The core of such longevity is the Amhara population. If the Horyu-ji Pagoda had other anchored pillars the integrity of the building would have been compromised in case of Earthquakes because of the counter forces that may not be in synchronized movement with the central pillar and all anchored pillars pulling apart against each other thereby disintegrating due to the counter buildup of energy/inertia of the pulling and pushing by all anchored pillars. Thus, the idea of floating and supporting pillars to the single central pillar worked perfectly for over 1,500 years.  What am I suggesting here is not a return of the Monarchy, but an appreciation of the danger of having many political parties anchored or imbedded in ethnic foundations that will destroy the whole political structure as would such anchored pillars to a Pagoda due to active and counterforces. Thus, we must outlaw all ethnic based political parties and ethnic Kilil government structures and draft a new Constitution.

The people in Amhara Kilil have been victimized by TPLF, ANDM, now with vengeful hatred by OLF and OPD. I supported Abiy Ahmed changing my long-standing position in opposing him because I saw him as the lesser evil of all the monsters now in power. I am very certain that the Amhara people are the pillar of Ethiopian State/Nation whose singular interest is to preserve the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ethiopia. They are the only ethnic group that had never expressed formally or informally to secede from Ethiopia. They are the most patriotic ethnic group, where the meaning of ethnicity blends perfectly with Ethiopiawinet and Christian Orthodoxy. “Orthodoxy” is a misleading word to use here for Amharas are the most tolerant and accepting group of people in Ethiopia. But they are dismally disorganized and do not have a power structure leading them to defend their own lives and the lives of all Ethiopians.

The real problem in Amhara Kilil is the acute absence of leadership and continuing failure to develop a farsighted and bold leadership. The previous leader Gedu Andargachew and the current Chairman and Deputy Prime Minister Demeke Mekonnen, along with their operatives, made serious errors whereby they ended up, at certain points in the early challenges of the EPRDF, hunting-down unarmed civilian Tigrians who have lived in the current Amhara Kilil, in some instances long before the fall of the Derg regime, rather than focusing on empowering the Amhara people. Because of such short sightedness due to hate and narrow ethnicism, they did not prepare the local population against the most dangerous terrorist groups such as the OLF. They created unnecessary antagonistic situation against the people of Tigrai instead of identifying the TPLF Leaders as the enemies of not only Amharas but against all Ethiopians. They deployed special forces and forcefully evicted tens of thousands of Tigrians and others, and also murdered unarmed Tigrians living in communities in Amhara Kilil. They used the same technique used now by OLF subversive thugs forcing tens of thousands of Amharas, Somalis, Southern People, and Tigrians who were living in settled communities in the Oromo Kilil.

I suggest that the first act is to organize an Amhara monolithic power structure, not necessarily with territorial correspondence, based on the old Teklai Gizat system in the region now designated as Amhara Kilil. There need be a simple power structure by constituting elected leaders from each designated Gizat representatives forming the Kilil Leadership. Each Gizat will recruit and arm properly its defense forces and structure a military command unitary system. The power structure will be based on the following Gizates: 1. Gondar/Begemder, 2. Gojjam, 3. Shewa, 4. Wollo. [Some aspect of the discussion in this section is based on a section from my article The Destructive vs The Humane.]

Arming the Population

It is reported by responsible local leaders and local victims that OLF is responsible for the atrocities committed in Oromia Kilil and adjustment Kilil regions. For example, the social media is full of such explicit reports: “Heavily armed men kill at least 27 people over the weekend in Ataye, Majete and Kemise areas of North Shewa in Amhara region. They also burned churches & damaged properties. Local officials in the region blame Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) for being behind the attack.“ This recent lawlessness must be the last time OLF criminal thugs would commit such Crimes and the last time Jawar Mohammed spews his genocidal rhetoric through his OMN. I wonder often why Abiy Ahmed did not even mention by name those terrorist criminals when he gives his bland condemnation of such atrocities?  Instead of defanging such political  vipers, he is busy threatening the peaceful human rights advocate Eskinder Nega and the equally non-violent Baldras members with violence. Recently Abiy Ahmed’s  security forces/police have detained very many Members by claiming some connections with the murders of Amhara Kilil leaders by Asaminew Tsige.

In addition to the formation of Kilil police forces and special Kilil defence volunteer forces, it is also absolutely mandatory and necessary to arm the population with defensive weapon at government cost wherever possible. I fully support the Amhara population to defend itself and to capture the political power that is being misused and is corrupted by subversive organizations like the OLF and its Leaders.  The fact is that weakness and not being armed invite attacks by subversive political groups and common criminals. It should be a priority to all Kilil Governments to allow their citizens arm themselves and provide training and organizational structures.

A special military force for the Amhara Kilil is a must right now at this crucial time of great upsurge of ethnic cleansing being carried out in Oromia Kilil. The OLF subsumed in the current Federal Army is attacking and ethnically cleansing tens of thousands of Ethiopians from their homes and  farmland. But retired TPLF military commanders such as Tsadikan Gebretensie openly stated recently in an interview for mass media  that he is opposed to such defense force for Amhara Kilil and in other Kilils while he full had helped and currently supports the militarization of Tygreans.

Br Gen. Asaminow Tsige: የጅብ ችኩል፡ ቀንድ ይነክሳል። 

There are very limited number of people in Ethiopian past and recent history that are worthy of admiration. What happened in Baher Dar is a classic example how  a stupid single leader can cause such disruptive activity aborting what could have been a winning process to check both secessionist groups of OLF and TPLF. The Government claims that Asaminew murdered Dr Ambachew,  the President of Amhara Kilil, and several Officials and security personnel. I trust the Government is stating factual events. Based on such pronouncements, I believe Asaminew was a truly small minded hateful individual and did not see beyond his hate of Tigreans not just TPLF. And now, hard to believe, the Lalibela People gave that balege murderer a huge public burial. I do not mind treating even dead criminals with dignity, but to bury a murderer with such pomp is disrespectful of the great leaders he murdered.  I am more ashamed of the people of Lalibela and Lasta than I am of OLF thugs and Jawar and his Qeerroo Bilisummaa.

I still believe in the long run the Amhara people with the right leader are the people who will preserve Ethiopia if they get the wisdom to work with the Tigrai people and the possible new leaders of TPLF rather  than fight over some local territories of Wolkiet and Raya. I am not against restructuring administrative territories on non-ethnic or language basis as long as it is done to promote unity and efficiency, and manageability. I am totally against the Kilil system left for us to fight over by that traitor monster Meles Zenawi. I am for throwing out the Kilil administrative structure and replace it either with the old Teklai Gizate system or adopt locally structured Woreda system with no ethnic base for political or economic power. You have no idea how much I despise that vicious little man whose ideas are destroying us now beyond his grave. He should have been buried in the volcanic lava lake in Afar, Dalol, rather than among the tombs of Ethiopian great patriots.

The enemy of the future survival of Ethiopia are OLF and Dowood Ibsa, Jawar Mohammed and his Qeerros, Bekele Gerba and his primitive eugenics idea, and most challenging are the non-Shewa Muslim Oromos. The OLF has comfortably settled in Addis Ababa due to the inept and myopic Prime Minister who is manipulated and twisted into a political pretzel by invisible advisors we do not see. Even as recently as few days back, the OLF’s official statement issued after their official conference of  30 June 2019 completely avoided from naming “Ethiopia” in their document as a political entity. They stated “በዝች አገር” in reference to Ethiopia, totally discounting the very factual existence of Ethiopia. And yet, such terrorists continue living right at the heart of our National Capital City of Addis Ababa maintaining their hostility to Ethiopia.

Sadly, I observed in the last couple of weeks since the time of the crises that Abiy Ahmed is just like water who could be made to take the color and shape of the containers that manage to contain him with the seduction of offering him power to stay as Prime Minister. He has no integrity, no sophisticated mind, no wisdom, no firm moral principles. His attraction is his good looks, great ability to use appealing language, and his harmless ambition to be in the spotlight. As I said, he could be useful to be in place getting for us to get ready, except for the stupid Asaminew’s cowardice murder of unarmed Amhara Kilil Leaders that have set the Ethiopiawinet popular movement a step or two back.

I have real respect for General Saare Mekonnen, he was very modest but very courageous military man. I have even greater respect for his young son who delivered the best and most hopeful statement in the week-long mourning period. I have always been in great pain to think of him and other patriotic TPLF military men serving under the traitor leader Meles Zenawi. I have not lost hope that there is good to come for Ethiopia from the younger generation of the Oromos of Ethiopia, TPLF warriors and Tigrians in general.

The Responsibility of the Army

I believe that the correct reading of the 1995 Ethiopian Constitution might have a self-executing provision in Article 87 for defensive actions by the Ethiopian Defence Forces. The Army has a Constitutional duty to protect the Ethiopian population if under terroristic attacks by any armed group or individuals in the immediate vicinity of the army. It does not require higher-up authorization to do so. It is possible to read into the 1995 Constitution of Ethiopia in Article 87 (3)-(5) that the Military is duty bound to protect the civilian population in danger without formal prior authorization from the Defense Minister or the Commander-in-chief.

“Article 87 Principles for National Defence … 3. The armed forces shall protect the sovereignty of the country and carry out any responsibilities as may be assigned to them under any state of emergency declared in accordance with the Constitution. 4. The armed forces shall at all times obey and respect the Constitution. 5. The armed forces shall carry out their functions free of any partisanship to any political organization(s).”  [emphasis added]

General Se’are Mekonnen had been careful in his military commands, and yet he may be held responsible for such violations of the human rights of Ethiopian victims of ethnic cleansing and ethnic violence during his tenor. This is not meant to disrespect a murdered hero at all, but to point out the duty of the military to protect citizens from brutality and violent evictions. It is ascertainable that the Ethiopian Defence Forces failed in protecting the civilian population in several areas where ethnic cleansing had taken place even though the Federal Government military forces were stationed in nearby garrisons. The protection of “sovereignty” includes protection of the Ethiopian population against all violent attacks whether by internally or externally based forces.

The Oromo and the Geda – Conclusion

The Problem of non-Shewa Oromos in general is their lack of exposure to multi-ethnic social structure  and living in harmony with individuals from different ethnic background. All the Studies I have read on traditional Oromo social structure points to a rigid system of a militaristic almost Spartan structure. Despite the claim of a “democratic” system and tolerance the Oromos claim, the non-Shewa Oromo society is a dense and a closed primitive system. It has a rigid and inelastic social lairing difficult to penetrate even by generations of individuals from non-Oromo groups living in close proximity. The Geda is a militaristic with only-men membership structure, and as a system at times, it is overrated. Because of its exclusivity and direct open public participatory necessity, it is not inducive or appropriate to modern state political structure.

Within the Oromo society, the Geda is the most democratic system of social structure. I emphasize the word “within”, for in that tightly closed exclusive preexisting family linage based structure, it is deliberative, provides for decisions of elected elders with term limits, no favoritism, structuralist et cetera. The social dealings in respect of women and their needs is handled by a different system not in the Geda system itself. However, it has one serious problem, for it only functions within and violently excludes non-Oromos from any participation. Thus, all accolades by several foreign writers of the system is based on limited insight. Even worse modern 20^th Century writers such as Asmerom Legesse did major disservice to the academic study of the Oromo people by writing a dissertation full of holes and doubtful research method that preempted further studies. For example, his lack of Oromo language ability and use of translators with no control mechanism in place, advisers who have no knowledge of the Oromo language or culture et cetera is questionable. I read his Dissertation that was kept at Harvard’s Widener Library, in 1994 even though I had read the book based on that Dissertation the year it was published almost four decades earlier in 1973. [Asmarom Legesse, GADA: THREE APPROACHES TO THE STUDY OF AFRICAN SOCIETY, The Free Press, 1973; even more egregious book by Asmerom Legesse is titled OROMO DEMOCRACY: AN INDIGENOUS AFRICAN POLITICAL SYSTEM, Red Sea Press, 2001]

In all of Asmerom’s Papers and in his two books dealing with Oromos and Ethiopia, the major flaw of his theses is that he did not consider important issues of comparison with the far open and inclusive Ethiopia’s Imperial culture when writing about or dealing with the exclusiveness and closedness of the Geda System even to its own female members of the Oromo society. The whole project was aimed at discounting the Ethiopian Empire and its superior long-lasting traditions. It is important to note that it is only in the Ethiopian Imperial tradition that individuals from different ethnic background (Oromo, Wolaita, Afar, Gimira, Somali, et cetera) are raised to great political and cleric positions as Commanders of armies, Governors, religious leaders et cetera. Nothing of the sort of inclusion and openness to different ethnic groups as in the Amhara Imperial tradition could be possible in a Geda system. The Waayyuu or Safuu moral code and the limited  Siqqe/Ulee system exclusively for Oromo women issues will not remedy the exclusivity problem of the Geda system in political and military matters reserved to men-only. He never asked the issue of whether there had been an anthropological structural system for the emergence of Leaders in the Geda system from outside of the Oromo family linage system. His study of the Geda system is cursory and populist without taking into account how exclusive and a bigoted a system it is. At any rate, Africa is full of such inward looking tribalistic exclusive structures with attractive but degenerative inner structures that had kept its social and political life at a standstill until the period of colonialism broke such stratified inner structures and opened them up for new ideas and processes in most of the African countries.

Ethiopia, a nation that is a successor state to the Axumite civilization, and that predates all European modernist civilizations and political state structures and that had maintained its sovereign power and independence during the scramble of Africa’s colonial period, had a different political evolution where integration and social mobility of Oromos and other tribes and ethnic groups took place within the dominant culture and political structure that created the current political conditions in Ethiopia. It would benefit us to read Prof Tekeste Negash’s  far superior analysis in this regard than to give much credence to an anthropologist’s distorted view of history. It never was a colonial system, but of conquest followed by opening up of closed systems to the larger Empire and population—a process of “civilizing” and educating people who were stagnating in exclusive local cultures.

The Amhara culture introduced into the Oromo and other ethnic cultures the following  very important items of culture: the horse and the bit with the saddle, the art of cotton threading and waving of clothing, the oxen drawn plough, farming, yeast, Teff injera, baking of all kinds of bread, the cuisine of several delectable dishes et cetera thereby totally transformed Oromo and other ethnic societies to where we are now to a more open and cohesive Ethiopian society. In their own rights Oromos and other ethnic groups have also contributed in building the present Ethiopia with their wealth of cultural items and also enriching the Ethiopian genetic pool, in all probability, the best in all of human history. However, to think of “Oromos” as a monolithic single structure is a total mistake, for there are variations of several and different Oromo clusters that may not be as rigid as it seems in books and studies by social scientists.

Of all the great civilizations in world history, the Amharas resemble the Romans (inclusive political culture) more than the Greeks (racist/exclusive), or the Chinese (exclusive), or the Indian great civilizations (rigidity of cast). Amharas are the most inclusive ethnic group in Ethiopian history to date. Even now where they have been attacked, vilified, abused for almost thirty years, they still try to maintain a higher order of statehood than follow narrow parochialism like the OLF Oromos, or TPLF Tigrians.  But strangely, an otherwise exclusive Somalis in general in the Horn are the defenders of  Ethiopian unity, the same is true with Afars, Hadyas, Gambela et cetera. It seems to me there is an almost divine process that has kept Ethiopia intact and free for these past thousands of years and still seems to be working pulling us all together at this crucial moment in the life of this wonderful country and People.

Tecola W Hagos

4 July 2019

The post AMHARAS AS THE GREAT SINGLE PILLAR OF ETHIOPIAWINET appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News & Breaking News: Your right to know!.

Kaleab Tessema

To begin with, I am deeply saddened and heartbroken for the loss of  General Asaminew, Dr. Ambachew, and others. Certainly, this tragedy has devastated all Amharas. Nevertheless, the Amharas people deserve to know the truth from the government. Right now, the authority and the anti-Amharas are trying to infuriate and divide the Amharas by bruiting false and contradicting information. Why do the anti-Amharas gather with uproarious censure and clamorous applause? I can say this confidently to those who are anti-Amharas, whether they like it or not, Amharas are becoming more united than ever before and there are millions of Asaminew.

Coming to the OLF’s statement, I took a quick glimpse at the OLF outcry statement posted on Zehabesha website, which partially brought to my attention that saying the Oromos racially attacked in “North Oromia, Wollo and the political change brought into the country because of the OLF big sacrifices with its supporters of Qeeroo Bilisummaa Oromoo.” This would be funny; and the statement is a tactical political gambit to pursue its dream of seceding by claiming Wollo as the TPLF claimed Welkait, and Raya; where the people are still being savagely massacred on their own ancestors’ land by the TPLF-Woyanne.

As it is widely known about the OLF for the last 27 years, the OLF leaders were hiding in Eritrea with its remnant soldiers and the leader was engaged doing business in Asmara to Dubai. On the other side, its remnant soldiers were working for Eritrean government repairing roads, but for the last 27 years, dozens of Oromo youth had been thrown in the jail and killed by the TPLF-Woyanne and during these brutal times in history, the Oromos themselves did not see or hear any bullet in the region from OLF against TPLF. Funny enough, the OLF leaders are bragging with no shame and with falsehoods that change has occurred in Ethiopia because the OLF waged bitter warfare against the TPLF.

Of course, there is no denying that the Oromo Qeeroo(s) were protesting against TPLF brutal regime, and even though, no matter how hard the Qeeroo tried, they could not win against the TPLF alone without the Amhara youth participation; and the Fano, Qeeroo, and others showed their unity with high spirit to depose the TPLF. To  remind the OLF leaders, I would like to quote from my previous piece which I wrote over two years ago how the Gondar’s protesting was effective:  “The Amhara’s youth protesters in Gondar were effective in  protesting and showed their solidarity with Oromo youth by saying that “Oromo’s blood is my blood, Bekele Gerba  is our leader, stop killing our brothers.” These slogans made the Ethiopians come together against the fascist regime, which effectively exposed the TPLF’s ploy of ‘divide and rule’ for the last 25 years. It is true that the Woyanne regime was seen panicking when the Oromos and the Amharas marched together to give a voice to the  voiceless.”

Beside the Qeeroo and Fano protesters inside the country, the Diaspora of the Amharas relentlessly played a key role in removing the TPLF from the office by lobbying the US Congress. They rallied to bring attention to take a stand against the TPLF “to vote on the resolutions of HR128 about human right situations in Ethiopia.”  Even the TPLF chairman, Debretsion, finally conceded that the TPLF’s defeat came about by the diasporas of the Amhara elites. He said this in a private speech boasting and belittling the OPDO-OLF, which was posted on the Ethiopians outlets. These are the facts on the land where people know well who brought the so-called changes or reforms. Unfortunately, the change was not a radical political change, it was rather replaced one with another, in other words, TPLF replaced with ODP-OLF and releasing political prisoners only for international media cover-up.

Having said that, it seemed that the OLF’s statement is well orchestrated to claim Wollo is part of ‘North Oromia,’ and after the statement posted less than a month, General Asaminew and Dr. Ambachew were killed including other officials in Baher Dar that emphatically put the Amharas in disbelief. Of course, General Asaminew and Dr. Ambachew would not easily back down for the new ODP-OLF oligarchies. However, the OLF leaders should know better that Wollo is the heartland of the Amhara, and the Amharas will not implore the OLF to change its mind of the leftover dream of forming the republic of Oromia, but it will be a big political mistake to claim Wollo is part of ‘North Oromia.’

To say the least, the Prime Minister Abiy came to power through the efforts of Demeke Mekonnen and all Ethiopians went to rally to support the Prime Minister. During his inauguration the speech he delivered at the parliament was very patriotic, praising Ethiopia by mentioning it several times as the Bible does the first time in 27 years. At the same token, Ethiopians were expected that he would bring a real change in the country and amending the constitution, but instead the Prime Minister and his cabals starting maintaining the status quo that favored the TPLF’s reign, which his party, ODP proved that cannot compromise on the current constitution. Unfortunately, Abiy and his team duped the Amhara once again. As we all know, the Amharas for the last 27 years have been hunted and killed in every region in the country by the TPLF-Woyanne and its cronies. Now, the ODP-OLF is taking a turn to repeat what TPLF had done to the Amhara. Currently, we saw in Baher Dar innocent Amharas were arrested on a large scale,  and brutally murdered by ODP armies without any evidence in the related recent death of the Amharas officials.

Sadly enough, as soon as Abiy held the Prime Minister position, the Oromo extremists started displacing and killing none Oromos in the Oromia region, and the Prime Minister did not take any action against these criminals that he seemed he acquiesced to it. But, when it comes to Amhara ethnicity, he showed his true color when he ordered the army to kill and arrest indiscriminately the Amharas in Baher Dar and in other regions without jurisdiction. Arresting and killing is not quelling the people of the Amhara, it rather aggravates the situations.

For that matter, the Oromo extremist, like Jawar and the TPLF are working together against Amhara at this point. The Oromo extremists and the TPLF have been recruiting some individuals from Qimant and Agew to rant on their TV condemning the Amhara, which is completely none of their business, just merely to de-stabilize the region that mainly to weaken the Amhara in order to advance their expansions agendas, but when the Amharas were cruelly killed in Benishangul, Welkait, and Raya, the OLF, and the TPLF cheered and applauded. It is true that the late General Asaminew Tsige spoke the truth that the ‘Amhara is surrounded’ by the TPLF and the OLF.

Undoubtedly, the OLF tries to renew its a long time doctrine that aims to expunge the name Ethiopia and replace it with Oromia. It is undeniable at this moment radical OLF members and the Oromo first extremists are given key government positions from top to bottom to control the security, military, and the finance which enables them to cling to power as the TPLF did. This recent statement tells as if  Wollo is part of North Oromia, and this should be an alarm bell for the Amharas to stand united. Enough is enough!

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The mostly young demonstrators have blocked major roads and junctions, paralyzing traffic during the evening rush hour, with disturbances extending into the night, protesting what community activists describe as deeply ingrained racism and discrimination in Israeli society.

Scores have been injured — among them many police officers, according to the emergency services — and dozens of protesters have been detained, most of them briefly. Israeli leaders called for calm; fewer protesters turned out on Wednesday.

“We must stop, I repeat, stop and think together how we go on from here,” President Reuven Rivlin said on Wednesday. “None of us have blood that is thicker than anyone else’s, and the lives of our brothers and sisters will never be forfeit.”

On Tuesday night, rioters threw stones and firebombs at the police and overturned and set fire to cars in chaotic scenes rarely witnessed in the center of Tel Aviv and other Israeli cities.

After initially holding back, the police fired stun grenades, tear gas and hard sponge bullets and sent in officers on horseback, prompting demonstrators to accuse them of the kind of police brutality that they had turned out to protest in the first place.

The man who was killed, Solomon Tekah, 18, arrived from Ethiopia with his family seven years ago. On Sunday night, he was with friends in the northern port city of Haifa, outside a youth center he attended. An altercation broke out, and a police officer, who was out with his wife and children, intervened.

The officer said that the youths had thrown stones that struck him and that he believed that he was in a life-threatening situation. He drew his gun and said he fired toward the ground, according to Micky Rosenfeld, a police spokesman.

Israeli security forces detained a protester at a demonstration in Tel Aviv on Wednesday.CreditAhmad Gharabli/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

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Mr. Tekah’s friends said that they were just trying to get away after the officer began harassing them. Whether the bullet ricocheted or was fired directly at Mr. Tekah, it hit him in the chest, killing him.

“He was one of the favorites,” said Avshalom Zohar-Sal, 22, a youth leader at the center, Beit Yatziv, which offers educational enrichment and tries to keep underprivileged youth out of trouble. Mr. Zohar-Sal, who was not there at the time of the shooting, said that another youth leader had tried to resuscitate Mr. Tekah.

The police officer who shot Mr. Tekah is under investigation by the Justice Ministry. His rapid release to house arrest has further inflamed passions around what Mr. Tekah’s supporters call his murder.

In a televised statement on Tuesday as violence raged, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that all Israel embraced the family of the dead youth and the Ethiopian community in general. But he added: “We are a nation of law; we will not tolerate the blocking of roads. I ask you, let us solve the problems together while upholding the law.”

Many other Israelis said that while they were sympathetic to the Ethiopian-Israelis’ cause — especially after the death of Mr. Tekah — the protesters had “lost them” because of the ensuing violence and vandalism.

Reflecting a gulf of disaffection, Ethiopian-Israeli activists said that they believed that the rest of Israeli society had never really supported them.

“When were they with us? When?” asked Eyal Gato, 33, an Ethiopian-born activist who came to Israel in 1991 in the airlift known as Operation Solomon, which brought 14,000 Ethiopian Jews to Israel within 36 hours.

The airlift was a cause of national celebration at the time, and many of the immigrants bent down to kiss the tarmac. But integration has since proved difficult for many, with rates of truancy, suicide, divorce and domestic violence higher than in the rest of Israeli society.

Mr. Gato, a postgraduate student of sociology who works for an immigrant organization called Olim Beyahad, noted that the largely poor Ethiopian-Israeli community of about 150,000, which is less than 2 percent of the population, had little electoral or economic clout.

The funeral for Mr. Tekah, 18, near Haifa, Israel, on Tuesday. Mr. Tekah arrived from Ethiopia seven years ago and had been out with friends in the port city when he was killed on Sunday night.CreditAbir Sultan/EPA, via Shutterstock

He compared their situation to African-Americans in Chicago or Ferguson, Mo., but said that the Israeli iteration of “Black Lives Matter” had no organized movement behind it, and that the current protests had been spontaneous.

Recalling his own experiences — such as being pulled over by the police a couple of years ago when he was driving a Toyota from work in a well-to-do part of Rehovot, in central Israel, and being asked what he was doing there in that car — Mr. Gato said he had to carry his identity card with him at all times “to prove I’m not a criminal.”

The last Ethiopian protests broke out in 2015, after a soldier of Ethiopian descent was beaten by two Israeli police officers as he headed home in uniform in a seemingly unprovoked assault that was caught on video. At the time, Mr. Gato said, 40 percent of the inmates of Israel’s main youth detention center had an Ethiopian background. Since 1997, he said, a dozen young Ethiopian-Israelis have died in encounters with the police.

A government committee set up after that episode to stamp out racism against Ethiopian-Israelis acknowledged the existence of institutional racism in areas such as employment, military enlistment and the police, and recommended that officers wear body cameras.

“Ethiopians are seen as having brought their values of modesty and humility with them,” Mr. Gato said. “They expect us to continue to be nice and to demonstrate quietly.”

But the second generation of the Ethiopian immigration has proved less passive than their parents, who were grateful for being brought to Israel.

The grievances go back at least to the mid-1990s. Then, Ethiopian immigrants exploded in rage when reports emerged that Israel was secretly dumping the blood they donated for fear that it was contaminated with H.I.V., the virus that causes AIDS.

“The community is frustrated and in pain,” said one protester, Rachel Malada, 23, from Rehovot, who was born in Gondar Province in Ethiopia and who was brought to Israel at the age of 2 months.

“This takes us out to the streets, because we must act up,” she said. “Our parents cannot do this, but we must.”

Gabby Sobelman contributed reporting from Rehovot, Israel

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Over the last three decades, the TPLF-led regime of the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front ruled at gunpoint. Repressive laws were used to silence dissidents. Fake documentaries fabricating armed resistance and jihad were propagated. Innocent citizens who spoke out were not only jailed and exiled but also killed and tortured.

That went on for two decades. But in 2016, the people said enough. A series of protests mainly in Amhara and Oromia, the two most-populous regions, forced ruling party leaders to meet for three weeks at the end of 2017. They realized they could no longer rule with the same approach. Therefore, they came up with a plan of change, both in leadership and program.

Some Ethiopians were suspicious at the idea that those who ruled with virtual impunity, embezzling and repressing, could now be agents of meaningful reform. But many were optimistic after new Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed started to talk about radical changes. He admitted systemic state torture, unblocked critical websites, and promised a truly democratic environment.

He appointed a gender-balanced cabinet and pledged to unify an ethnically divided county He initiated peace with Eritrea and built ties with historically hostile Middle East nations. He deepened cooperation across the Horn, and shuttled across it and beyond as a peace broker. Speaking in liberal language, the West was lightning quick to embrace him; just like when they fell in love at first sight with our former strongman, Meles Zenawi.

Rhetorical reforms

But as time passes, Abiy’s purring engine ran out of steam. Contrary to the advice of several commentators, he did not produce a roadmap but relied on flowery rhetoric. There was no clarity on objectives beyond fuzzy concepts such as medemer. His biggest success took a hit when Eritrea closed all its Ethiopian border crossings after a few months. Abiy ignored institutions and conventional rules of diplomacy. He reportedly demanded some Ethiopian embassies, such as the in the U.S., report directly to him, while assigning Oromo allies to open new consulates.

Abiy appointed Oromo confidantes to key federal positions, such as Lemma Megersa as Minster of Defence, Berhanu Tsegaye as a powerful Attorney General, and Adanech Abebe as Minister of Revenue. Combined with his appointment of technocrats and aides at national level, the federal government is viewed by many as dominated by Oromos and Abiy loyalists. Yet the old resented officials of the pre-Abiy regime are still in charge at lower levels throughout Ethiopia. His hyped reform of the military only led to the replacement of Tigrayan dominance with Oromo dominance. He has established his own multi-million dollar protection force called the Republican Guard and spent millions of dollars refurnishing his office. His lavish and frequent state banquets cost tens of millions of dollars in a year.

Economic growth has slowed since he came to power, while annual inflation accelerated to 16 percent in May. Revenue from merchandise exports declined and hard currency shortages led to business closures and a booming black forex market. His plan to privatize state-owned enterprises to ease fiscal imbalances has faced fierce criticism from across society. But the schedule was never realistic, and emergency capital injections instead came from willing friends with influence in the Gulf and World Bank.

Over their bodies

Abiy’s reluctance to take action on crime, especially in Oromia, has led to a crisis. Unspeakable acts like stoning have killed innocents. Members of the Oromo Liberation Front, a returned armed group that reached an undisclosed deal with his administration, have allegedly robbed 17 banks and refused to give up arms. Yet their leaders sit comfortably in Addis Ababa hotels.

Abiy took no action when Jawar Mohammed, an Oromo activist who helped him come to power, gave orders to Oromo youths to take over new condominiums that were meant to be distributed to Addis Ababa residents. Jawar told “Qeerroo” that the houses would be given to Addis Ababans ‘over our dead bodies’. Abiy stayed silent rather than condemn this unjust campaign to have houses built with Addis taxpayers’ money to those who hadn’t saved and don’t live in the capital; and some Oromo evictees were indeed offered apartments.

In other parts of Oromia, ethnic Amharas and Tigrayans were persecuted for their inherited identity. A national census was postponed due to insecurity that led to more than three million Ethiopians becoming internally displaced, the vast majority by conflict. Months away from the planned signature national election, preparations are way behind schedule.

Abiy’s Amhara avoidance

The Amhara, who have historically inhabited almost all parts of the Ethiopian territory, became a minority in most of the newly formed ethnic states. The Amhara had no political representation during the early 1990s constitutional process that instituted ethnic federalism. The redrawing of boundaries in the 1990s also annexed areas that were inhabited by Amhara to other regions. Under EPRDF rule, Amharas have been subjected to ethnicity based killings and displacement with active or tacit support from governments in Oromia, Benishangul Gumuz, Tigray, and Southern Nations.

These were some of the grievances that led to the Amhara Resistance against the TPLF-led government that helped Abiy come to power. Amhara want regional boundaries redrawn and areas which are predominantly Amhara—such as Wolkait-Tsegede and Raya in Tigray; Metekel in Benishangul-Gumuz; and areas such as Dera, Debre Libanos and others in Oromia—to be included in Amhara. They also would like to see discriminatory regional constitutions revised. The constitution should stipulate a procedure to ensure Amharas everywhere can get government services in their own language. Amhara therefore want the federal constitution revised so all regional administrations include the national working language, Amharic, among their working languages.

Most Amhara welcomed the change amid high hopes that Abiy’s administration would work with them to address these longstanding issues. But the way Abiy treated Amhara was a source of frustration, as he refused to respond to key questions of the Amhara Resistance. On the issue of reform of a constitution in which Amharas had no part in writing, the response was clear: “The constitution will not be revised to just answer the question of Amhara region and ethnic Amharas”. This upset a lot of Ethiopians.

Amhara now see as the drama of Abiy Ahmed

First, although the constitution is defended by various ethnic elites, the call for revision is also supported by many elites, and a large proportion of citizens, especially in cities. Second, Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), the regional ruling party and a key ally of Abiy’s Oromo Democratic Party, has been advocating revision of the constitution.

Although support from ADP for Abiy in the EPRDF Council was the reason he become chairperson and prime minister, his refusal to consider constitutional amendment is a sign Abiy used his key ally to achieve power, and then dropped them. This was a sad awakening to what Amhara now see as the drama of Abiy Ahmed, where his early inclusive speeches were a strategic move to get people on side until he had consolidated his control.

Abiy has shown little commitment or capacity to stop the killing of Amharas in Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz and Southern Nations regions, another key question of Amhara nationalism. In response to demands for the proper representation of Amhara in the federal government and to stop the persecution of Amharas, Abiy responded that ethnic nationalism is bad, and he is concerned that Amhara nationalism is ascendant. To hear this from a prime minister of an ethnically federated country and a chairperson of an ethno-nationalist Oromo Democratic Party—an insider who rode Oromo nationalism to power—shoveled salt into a gaping wound. This indeed was the moment Abiy’s intentions to build Oromo hegemony was revealed. Consistent with his earlier comments, Abiy saw the increasing popularity of Amhara nationalism as the main obstacle to this goal.

Oromizing Addis Ababa 

Abiy’s most enthusiastic supporters in his early days were in Addis Ababa. Tens of thousands joined a rally organized in support of him on June 23, 2018. Since then, support for Abiy evaporated due to discriminatory practices that created first- and second-class residents in the city.

The Ethiopian constitution stipulates that Addis Ababa (while geographically located in Oromia) is a separate district with full autonomy and accountable to the federal government. Ever since Abiy took office, the autonomy of Addis Ababa has been encroached on by an ODP-run administration. It started with the problematic appointment of Takele Uma as mayor. He was not a member of the city council, nor a resident of Addis Ababa. Second, he is a hardcore Oromo nationalist and not suitable to govern what is an ethnically diverse cosmopolitan city. As his close friend, Abiy appointed Takele mayor while aware of his radical views, such as that Addis Ababa belongs to only Oromos, as stated on his Facebook page. Third, engineering graduate Takele doesn’t have the experience of politics and public administration to lead a dynamic city with complex political and social problems.

Thus it wasn’t surprising when Takele quickly started to implement exclusionary policies. He demanded Oromos that live in nearby small cities in Oromia receive Addis Ababa resident identity card so that they can access funds to start small businesses in the city, and his administration fired city officers that opposed this illegal direction. He also advocated for the passage of a radical draft proclamation on the “special interest” of Oromia in Addis Ababa, which essentially would drive the agenda of creating an economic and cultural hegemony of Oromos, and undermine the entitlements of non-Oromo citizens.

Balderas was barred from using hotels

In collaboration with the Oromia administration, Takele’s administration is building thousands of houses in Addis Ababa to be exclusively distributed to Oromos who will relocated from Oromia region to Addis Ababa. In explaining this plan, Lemma Megersa, then president of Oromia, stated that the ODP prioritized urban politics and placed importance on demographics. Meanwhile Addis has got more dangerous under Takele and Abiy’s watch.

Following these unfortunate developments, a group of concerned citizens aimed at countering Oromo hegemony and discriminatory policies in Addis Ababa formed an advocacy group called Balderas, a group of concerned citizens that aim to counter hegemonic ambitions and represent the interests of the people. Abiy and Takele were quick to launch repressive actions against this group. Balderas was barred from using hotels to give media briefings and police forcefully dispersed its meetings. Abiy threatened to confront the group’s leader, international award-winning activist-journalist Eskinder Nega, who received arrest threats from police and death threats from Qeerroo .

Abiy’s popularity has evaporated over the last six months in other regions too. His administration has let drift the regional statehood bids by Sidama, Wolayta and other Southern Nations groups. Tigray, led by TPLF, is increasingly distant from the federal government and acts defiantly. Abiy is accused of targeting Tigrayan in his prosecutions of former officials allegedly involved in human-rights abuses and corruption.

Benishangul-Gumuz’s recent decision to include Oromiffa in its school curriculum is perceived by locals as an outcome of ODP influence. In Somali region, Abiy successfully installed his own loyalist by removing the president and his cabinet. Although Abdi Iley was a tyrant, the intervention was unconstitutional, angered several clans, and almost led to conflict in the region. All this ethnic favoritism led to Abiy’s popularity plummeting—so a plan was needed to contain the growing opposition.

Fake coup not failed coup  

On the evening of June 22, the head of the Press Secretariat of the Office of Prime Minister announced on national TV that an operation was ongoing to counter a coup attempt in Amhara. A few hours later, Abiy addressed the nation in a recorded video where he confirmed that a coup attempt failed but top regional officials in Bahir Dar and Chief of Staff of the military in Addis Ababa had been shot. The government accused Brigadier-General Asaminew Tsige, head of Amhara security bureau, of masterminding the plot, and claimed a link between the assassinations in Addis Ababa and Bahir Dar.

The international media dutifully reproduced the official narrative. A key contributor is the alleged history of the participation of Asaminew in a 2009 attempt against the late Meles Zenawi’s government. Asaminew had been released in 2018 as part of the ruling party’s desperate amnesty and, seemingly in recognition for wrongs committed against him, his military rank and benefits were reinstated. Shortly after his release, he was assigned to the very crucial position of Amhara head of security.

However, a coup attempt was not a plausible description for a number of reasons. First, Ethiopia’s federal arrangement makes a coup at a regional level impractical, as the military can easily overcome such action. It is very hard to believe an experienced officer like Asaminew could miss this fact. Second, there appears to have been little or no attempt to control airports, the regional broadcaster, and other key institutions, as would occur during a typical coup.

His intention was unlikely to be a coup

Third, there were no attempts to mobilize armed men other than a couple of hundred recently hired armed police that were under Asaminew’s command. Fourth, none of the survivors called it a coup—at least not until later when the government insisted on sticking to the coup narrative.

Fifth, despite shutting down the internet for over a week and being the main source of information, the government offered conflicting facts and an unconvincing narrative. In the most recent backtrack, t said it is still investigating a possible connection between the two sets of assassinations. There were also contradicting stories about the fate of the bodyguard assassin of General Seare Mekonnen. First he was arrested, then dead from suicide, later hospitalized.

Sixth, Asaminew told the only journalist he spoke about the absurdness of a coup at a regional level, and speculated that the narrative might be a strategy of the federal government for military intervention in the region. Thus, more than a week after the assassination, the government has failed to show there was a coup. Even if Asaminew was behind the killings, let’s say motivated by disagreements he had with the regional leadership, we can say that his intention was unlikely to be a coup. The decision to only kill three of the seven leaders in the same meeting suggested instead the motivation was to remove those he disagreed with.

Crackdown comeback

One wildly misleading framing is that June 22 was a backlash to Abiy’s reforms. The Amhara region gave Abiy overwhelming support when he rolled out his agenda. Both the alleged perpetrator and victims are hardcore supporters of change. Asaminew was against TPLF, whom Abiy is also estranged from. Asaminew wants to answer the questions of Amhara Resistance that helped Abiy ascend to power. He was a fierce advocate of the return of annexed areas such as Wolkait, Raya and Metekel to Amhara region, and has received fierce criticism from TPLF. He reportedly led the regional security effectively to identify and detain individuals, including Oromo leaders involved in instigating communal conflict in Oromia Special Zone of Amhara region; and, for that, has been demonized by some federal and regional Oromo officials.

Yet, the federal government has rolled out a mass arrest with so far more than 300 people arrested on suspicion of participation in the “coup attempt”. Not surprisingly, the targets of mass arrest are members of groups Abiy’s administration has identified as formidable challenges: ethnic Amharas, members of National Movement of Amhara, Balderas members, and leaders of security institutions in Amhara. So it has become clearer that the likely motivation to call it a coup was to launch an operation to contain the popularity of Amhara nationalism and its leaders, dismantle Amhara region security institutions, and disrupt Balderas.

Abiy’s administration’s decision to investigate suspects for “terrorism”, a tried and trusted tactic of the EPRDF regime, is an indication that his administration is rolling back much-praised political reforms and retreating to repression. The only difference is the new people in power are from a different ethnic group and have savvy propagandists that are willing to squeeze facts to sell a false narrative.

Amidst a lack of consistent and reliable information about what is happening, with the Internet shut down for more than a week, speculations and emotions have been running high, particularly in Amhara. Given many people are legally armed and there is a large flow of weapons into the region, Abiy’s crackdown on peaceful dissidents could be an invitation to an armed uprising. Abiy and friends should learn from history, stop the mass detention, release the detained individuals, and allow an independent investigation of what happened on June 22.

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Ethiopia’s prime minister oversaw the chaotic release of thousands of prisoners, including many ethnonationalist militants. His amnesty may now be coming back to haunt him.

 | JULY 4, 2019, 

Members of the army carry one of the coffins covered with the Ethiopian national flag as they arrive at the millennium hole in Addis Ababa, on June 25, 2019 for the National funeral service of Chief of Staff of the Ethiopian defence forces Seare Mekonnen and of Major-General Geza’e Abera, a retired former senior official in the Ethiopian army. – Ethiopian military and religious leaders condemned, on June 25, 2019, the assassinations of the army chief and other top officials at an emotional funeral service at which Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed wept openly throughout. Ethiopia’s army chief, the president of Amhara state and three other top officials have been killed in two separate attacks on June 22, 2019. While the government has said the attacks took place within the context of an attempted coup in Amhara and are possibly linked, the overall motives remain murky. (Photo by Michael TEWELDE / AFP) (Photo credit should read MICHAEL TEWELDE/AFP/Getty Images)

DDIS ABABA, Ethiopia—Former comrades in arms described retired Brig. Gen. Asaminew Tsige, who was shot dead on June 24, as a mediocre soldier and a poor administrator. Asaminew was gunned down by government forces two days after allegedly masterminding the assassination of three senior officials of Ethiopia’s Amhara state, including its president—events labeled part of “an orchestrated coup attempt” by the Ethiopian prime minister’s office.

TIME Leaders: Abiy Ahmed

Asaminew had a long history in Ethiopian military circles—and in rebel movements. He was an ex-rebel fighter in the Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement in the struggle that in 1991 felled the Derg, a Marxist junta that preceded Ethiopia’s current ruling system. Asaminew met in 2009 with leaders of the banned opposition movement Ginbot 7 in Dubai, according to members of that movement. On April 24, 2009, the National Intelligence and Security Service and Federal Police Joint Anti-Terrorism Task Force arrested 35 people allegedly involved in plotting a coup against Prime Minister Meles Zenawi’s government; most were members of the military or the police. Asaminew was one of them, and he was imprisoned for nearly a decade.

Last February, Asaminew emerged from prison, having allegedly faced solitary confinement and torture, among tens of thousands of prisoners released following a 12-point reform plan handed down by Ethiopia’s ruling politburo in December 2017.

The effort to release and reintegrate former rebels who had once sought to overthrow the federal government was widely hailed as a bold reform effort. But it  has also unleashed forces that Abiy may no longer be able to control.Under Abiy Ahmed, who became Ethiopia’s new leader in April 2018, Asaminew was honorably retired with full pension rights—and he was appointed by Amhara state later that year to head its administration and security bureau. The effort to release and reintegrate former rebels who had once sought to overthrow the federal government was widely hailed as a bold reform effort. But as the high-profile June 22 killings have shown, that policy has also unleashed forces that Abiy may no longer be able to control.

Tremors have already rippled through the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF), the federal army, whose manpower mirrors the ethnic makeup of the country’s ruling coalition and has been increasingly involved in internal peacekeeping amid innumerable conflicts that have over the last year turned Ethiopia into the world’s largest source for internally displaced persons associated with conflict.

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Abiy has brokered an anarchic political opening, leading the four branches of the ethnically-based ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF)—Tigrayans, Oromos, Amharas, and ethnic groups from the south—to undertake a grandiose personnel restructuring and rebranding. Asaminew’s own appointment to the Amhara Democratic Party (ADP) central committee in October 2018 was part of that trend.

According to security insiders, Asaminew relied on hardliners affiliated with the Amhara Democratic Forces Movement, who, after returning from Eritrea amid an historic peace deal between the two countries, agreed last November to merge with the ADP. One of his two deputies in the Amhara security bureau, Alehubel Amare, had fled to Eritrea and formed the ADFM with other military defectors after the alleged coup plot of 2009, and another, the retired Brigadier-General Tefera Mamo, had been imprisoned with Asaminew.

Abiy’s intention was, in December 2018, to broker a merger between the ADP (which is part of the EPRDF) and the more radical National Movement of Amhara, or NAMA (which is not). This trend was replicated in Abiy’s native region of Oromia with a planned merger between the Oromo Democratic Front, an opposition movement returning from exile, with Abiy’s own Oromo Democratic Party, which is part of the EPRDF.

Just as the communist nomenklatura in the former Soviet republics survived through adopting nationalist rhetoric when the Soviet Union began to face a crisis due to rising regional nationalism, the EPRDF’s ADP absorbed existing undercurrents of radical Amhara ethnonationalism in an effort to refurbish its damaged credentials

Just as the communist nomenklatura in the former Soviet republics survived through adopting nationalist rhetoric when the Soviet Union began to face a crisis due to rising regional nationalism, the EPRDF’s ADP absorbed existing undercurrents of radical Amhara ethnonationalism in an effort to refurbish its damaged credentials

by appeasing hard-liners in advance of competitive elections intended for 2020.This ethnonationalist revival in a federal state has unleashed pre-Derg forces seeking to revive a world of feuding dynasties and provincial lords with their own armies competing for dominance based on who has the most weapons while seeking incorporation of so-called ancestral lands into Amhara state, including irredentist claims in other regional states and even in neighboring Sudan.

Prior to his death, Asaminew was overall commander of Amhara state’s special police forces, police, and militia, over which he had direct influence; he did not have a command role in the ENDF. Such militias historically played a pivotal role in Ethiopia’s internal security during the era of princes, between the 18th and 19th centuries, during which nobles had their own militias from their respective communities to defend their territory and security in the absence of any effective central authority.

They were also present during the Red Terror under the Derg, when so-called people’s militias were established largely from the peasantry and empowered to act against so-called anti-revolutionary individuals and groups. In Amhara state, after the Eritrean-Ethiopian War of 1998-2000, residents of North Gondar and the military and police faced attacks from insurgents linked with Eritrean-supported groups. As a result, militias were increasingly entrusted to operate at the grassroots level as local first responders to lawlessness.

The ADP selected Asaminew to its central committee as part of a pivot toward the incorporation of returning opposition forces. The party’s decision to then crown Asaminew as the head of Amhara state’s administration and security bureau—a role accountable to the regional president and supervising all regional security organs—was seen as a way of absorbing and neutralizing hard-liners. But it ended up fueling a bitter power struggle at the core of a fragmenting EPRDF and threatening the survival of the federal coalition’s constituent branches.

Fractious forms of ethnonationalism are now emerging all across Ethiopia—a country of more than 80 ethnic groups—raising the perilous prospect of a Yugoslav-style breakup.

Fractious forms of ethnonationalism are now emerging all across Ethiopia—a country of more than 80 ethnic groups—raising the perilous prospect of a Yugoslav-style breakup.

Mutual animosity between regional states is contributing to a national crisis, with a race to strengthen regional security forces amid rising distrust of federal forces—similar to the distrust of the Serb-dominated Yugoslav National Army by Slovenes and Croats in the early 1990s, as they built up their own territorial defense forces.As regional nationalism grows, competing irredentist claims are on the rise. One of Amhara state’s borders is with Tigray state. Amhara nationalists want to reclaim the districts of Wolkait and Raya, which they say were annexed to Tigray after the Tigrayan-led EPRDF came to power. Amhara nationalists also want part of Oromia, Al-Fashaga in Sudan, and the federal capital, Addis Ababa—and NAMA labels the EPRDF’s Tigray People’s Liberation Front (which governs Tigray) as a “terrorist group,” according to Christian Tadele, a NAMA politburo member—riling neighboring Tigrayan nationalists.

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DISPATCH | 

NIZAR MANEK

As Asaminew built up Amhara militias and special forces, Tigrayans did the same. A week before June 22, a Tigrayan officer, now a fugitive sought by the federal government, told me there are about 1,000 retired Tigrayan officers looking to form an association. “Our worry is about identity. We don’t want to be cheated as in the 1800s,” he said.

Adding fuel to the fire, there have been ethnically-based rounds of military promotions to balance the mid- to upper ranks of the federal military since 2012 and also under Abiy. As a consequence, there have been a corresponding number of ethnically-based retirements, leaving many retired officers—some of them disgruntled—who are qualified and capable of training militias.

In the bitter climate of Ethiopia’s political opening, retired officers, including those involved in the alleged conspiracy of 2009, could be used to provide military training to exploitable militias—poor, largely untrained, and vulnerable to political influence

In the bitter climate of Ethiopia’s political opening, retired officers, including those involved in the alleged conspiracy of 2009, could be used to provide military training to exploitable militias—poor, largely untrained, and vulnerable to political influence

, a first-response force meant to supplement, not substitute for, regional police. And unlike regional police, both retired officers and militia members can legally join political parties, including radical ethnonationalist groups.Undeterred by Amhara power brokers in the EPRDF, Asaminew sought the independence of regional security organs from the ADP’s party structures, showing the dangers of integrating released prisoners with radical backgrounds into the regional police. He also went after the Qemant, a group with a long-standing desire for self-administration and long punished by Amhara militias and regional security forces for their assertiveness. In April 2018, the Amhara regional administration proposed a Qemant special district. This decision was more generous than expected and met with the sharp displeasure of Amhara nationalists, who wanted to deny any self-administration to the Qemant.

Asaminew was repeatedly accused by the Qemant of masterminding or at least condoning their ethnic cleansing by Amhara irregular forces or local Amhara militias. He also called for Amharas to arm themselves and take their fate into their own hands while pressuring the regional government to occupy Wolkait—a corridor to Eritrea and Sudan that is disputed with Tigray state.

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Amhara state’s police commissioner reported that 190 new recruits into the regional security forces were suspected as accomplices to the June 22 killings in Bahir Dar, the regional capital. A televised account by survivors of the fatal evening said forces in unfamiliar military attire tried but failed to force a door open and then found another entry point, crossing paths with the three officials, shot as they attempted an escape.

Hours after the Bahir Dar killings, in Addis Ababa, a bodyguard shot the chief of staff of the ENDF, Gen. Seare Mekonnen, and a retired major general, Gezae Abera. Whether the guard, Corporal Mesafint Tigabu, acted on instructions or on his own remains a mystery, as does the extent and coherence of operational planning on the part of Asaminew and his alleged accomplices in the killings earlier in the evening.

Asaminew may have acted without careful planning. Days before June 22, internal evaluation proceedings known as gimgema befell Asaminew, insiders reported, with a plan to relieve him as head of Amhara state’s administration and security bureau. The ADP has released an alleged June 22 audio recording of Asaminew outlining “measures taken against ADP leaders because they have sabotaged the people’s demands.”

Weeks prior to June 22, insiders reported Asaminew as having recruited a new batch of retired Amhara military officers into the regional special police—a rapid deployment force used when the regional police are confronted with matters beyond their capacity and called in before the federal forces. A proposal to establish permanent regional branch offices for the federal special police has been held up since February amid problems of conflicting mandates, competition, overlapping jurisdictions, and vexed disputes over the constitutional rights of regional states.

Taking advantage of these bottlenecks, insiders said Asaminew’s recruitment drive included Amhara officers demobilized in connection with the alleged coup conspiracy of 2009 as well as some officers forced into retirement due to ethnic restructuring of the national army. With Asaminew in charge, the fox was effectively left to guard the hen house.

With Asaminew in charge, the fox was effectively left to guard the hen house.

That Asaminew sought to build up the regional special police by relying on ADFM hardliners returning from Eritrea, with recruits ostensibly more loyal to him than the regional government and the constitution, could have offended—and threatened—the regional president, prompting the internal evaluation proceedings that may have spurred Asaminew to action.

In the wake of the assassinations, the ADP may now seek to remove actual or potential allies of Asaminew from its central committee and party-state structures and figure out what weapons he circulated and where, and what training and instructions may have been provided by retired officers to militias. There have been at least 250 arrests without charge—a practice Abiy promised to do away with—including some of Asaminew’s alleged co-conspirators of a decade ago, Amhara opposition leaders, and returning rebels from Eritrea absorbed into security structures under Asaminew.

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The EPRDF and Abiy will now have to do some soul-searching about the sweeping prisoner releases from which Asaminew emerged. Indeed, Asaminew was released during a state of emergency that professed to protect the constitutional order at a delicate moment when Abiy’s predecessor, Hailemariam Desalegn, had already tendered his resignation and before Abiy was designated his successor.

Pardons of former officers such as Asaminew, together with an amnesty law under Abiy that exonerated former defectors from the military and officers charged with breaching military discipline, sent conflicting signals about the rules and regulations of the ENDF concerning noninvolvement in politics. Meanwhile, Abiy convened a meeting of the ENDF top brass, urging officers involved in politics to resign; otherwise, he foresaw possible “chaos” amid states of “friction” that could lead to “proxy war.”

Prior to Abiy’s rise to power as EPRDF chairman and prime minister, the EPRDF ostensibly functioned on the basis of consensus

Prior to Abiy’s rise to power as EPRDF chairman and prime minister, the EPRDF ostensibly functioned on the basis of consensus

, with the 36-member EPRDF politburo—composed equally of its four ethnically-based branches—guarding against majority-based decisions.But things were already changing under Hailemariam. A 17-day meeting of the politburo, of which Abiy is and was a member, began in December 2017, eventually agreeing to a 12-point reform program that focused on a “democratic opening” and “democratization” of institutions. In that meeting, Hailemariam later told me, he proposed the prisoner releases. He explained that “there are some who have not agreed upon this issue. That doesn’t mean that we should follow what they say.”

“The majority has agreed upon it. As a prime minister, it is my responsibility,” Hailemariam added, indicating a significant shift in decision-making procedures. Asaminew, now dead, and another alleged accomplice, Tefera Mamo, now arrested, were released in February 2018 while Hailemariam continued as acting prime minister. Hailemariam’s apparent shift signaled a trend toward the disregard of minority views under Abiy.

Inconsistent messages also rippled through the system when Abiy, as part of a push to consolidate control amid power struggles, arrested some ex-officials in key security organs while elevating others to serve as top securocrats and leaving political allies—who formerly served in high security roles meriting scrutiny—unscathed. Abiy, presiding over an absence of consensus in the EPRDF, has become little more than a placeholder transitional leader grasping at rhetoric of unity while relying on pragmatic and shifting alliances to stay in power.

The severe strain that Ethiopia’s regional and grassroots security organs are now facing is rooted in myriad power struggles that have rippled out from the core of the ruling coalition during the political opening. Too little attention was paid to characters like Asaminew, who were licensed to act from expanding islands of power amid the breakdown of party structure and control.

Too little attention was paid to characters like Asaminew, who were licensed to act from expanding islands of power amid the breakdown of party structure and control.

The violent events in June are a warning that Ethiopia’s political opening, with elections and a national census slated for next year, could end in a bloodbath.Fortunately, the country hasn’t reached that point yet. Asaminew failed despite having built up a certain constituency in Amhara state. If he sought a wider conspiracy to take power in the federal capital, it made little sense, barring delusion or naiveté. A successful regional power grab would have required firm support from at least part of the military in the region, the Western Command, following immediate negotiations with the federal government for recognition. The Western Command has nine divisions, each with a minimum of 4,000 to 5,000 soldiers. The head of the Western Command is not an ethnic Amhara, but from southern Ethiopia; a restructuring under Abiy has reduced six former military commands to four, each led by a general hailing from an ethnic group different from that of the region in which they are stationed.

Although Abiy’s actions as Ethiopia’s leader have shown some serious strategic errors, this particular measure may help guard against contagion of ethnic conflict into the federal military, preventing a nightmare scenario in which some ENDF Amhara officers would defect and join the sort of ethnonationalist rebellion that Asaminew appeared to be trying to provoke.

For now, the greater peril may lie in politicized elements of Asaminew’s former forces fighting with the federal police and military, as the chain of command seeks to guard against fragmentation and a weakened EPRDF remains only nominally in charge of the organs of the state.

Nizar Manek is the Addis Ababa correspondent for Bloomberg News and an independent consultant and analyst covering Ethiopia and the greater Horn of Africa.

Twitter: @japanizar

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Some of the families said Wednesday’s announcement from the U.S. planemaker also triggered an avalanche of unwelcome phone calls from relatives and acquaintances who believed they had just received compensation.

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The Félix Houphouët-Boigny Peace Prize is intended to honour living individuals and active public or private bodies or institutions that have made a significant contribution to promoting, seeking, safeguarding or maintaining peace, in conformity with the Charter of the United Nations and the Constitution of UNESCO.

The Prize was established in 1989 by a resolution supported by 120 countries and adopted by the General Conference of UNESCO at its 25th session. It is in line with the philosophy of UNESCO’s founders who, in the preamble to the Organization’s Constitution, solemnly declare that: “Since wars begin in the minds of men, it is in the minds of men that the defences of peace must be constructed.”

In establishing this Prize, the General Conference of UNESCO wanted to reaffirm its commitment to peace and dialogue between cultures and civilizations. It desired to endow itself with a significant instrument so as to encourage and honour all those who contribute to bringing about a world of greater mutual support and human fellowship.

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This article is not a political analysis. As we have too many articles these days, I have no intention of tiring readers with a long article. This article just makes a call. It is a call similar to the old “የእናት ሀገር ጥሪ”. It is an invitation to the former members of the historical Ethiopian armed forces. Though the issue in this article is of interest to the wider Ethiopian audience, it is primarily directed towards the former Ethiopian officers and soldiers. I wish I am writing this article in Amharic. But I am not a “Diaspora” Ethiopian refugee living in relative ease amidst resources. I am what I call a “Lame bora” Ethiopian refugee with limited resources. Hence typing in English is quicker and convenient for my situation.

The current situation in our country is very alarming. As many Ethiopians I was also optimistic about the new political change that was taking place in Ethiopia over the past year. However the troubles of that country are deep rooted. And during the 27 years under the TPLF regime, the politics had been structurally engineered to be a ticking time bomb and highly problematic. Unless the whole ethnic based political system and administration (including the constitution i.e. the blueprint for all the current mess) is critically revised and sane measures are taken, the future of that country is rather bleak. The hard truth

is that, like the Titanic ship, as a nation we may be on a collision course with a “political iceberg” (or we may have already collided) and it is only a matter of time before we sink into total chaos. May almighty God save the nation from such a dark scenario!

The so called EPRDF even with the reformists at the helm is a highly problematic and drunken political body. It is full of narrow tribal cadres who are actually working against the new reforms which the PM has been pushing over the past year. It is not only TPLF in Mekele that is hindering the reforms, but also many insecure and corrupt cadres and politicians in the other EPRDF sister parties as well. Outside EPRDF, there are also highly vocal tribalist politicians and activists with divisive agenda. The various ethnically demarcated regions have become increasingly tense and inhospitable for people that are considered as outsiders of those regions. This has resulted in millions of displaced internal refugees. The social media and YouTube are also full of fanatic tribal “activists” mainly based in the diaspora. In short what has been feared for many years is slowly unfolding before our eyes. It appears we are entering a season of harvest for what has been sown in the past 27 years by the TPLF. Hence it is time the unity forces from the opposition camp come up with new and original ideas to impede and stop this downward slide to chaos.

It is against this ominous backdrop that I make this call to members of our former historical Ethiopian defense forces. I highly encourage you to consider forming a brand new Ethiopian political party that could be a big player in the political scene of the country. Such a unity party with a “one Ethiopia” motto could be a center of gravity to attract, organize and represent millions of diverse Ethiopians who want the historical unity of the country to continue and be safeguarded. The majority of Ethiopians have now understood that your sacrifice and struggle were to prevent such an evil time from coming upon our nation. I am aware that over the past years some alumni like associations have been formed to represent our heroes from the former historical defense forces. The new political party I am suggesting can be quickly formed by these associations of the former Air force, Navy and Ground forces. It does not mean that these alumni associations will disappear after creating this political party. They could still continue as before. But they could come together and take the first initiative to create this big political party that has the potential to have hundreds of thousands of members in a very short time besides millions of supporters.

The new change in the country has allowed opposition political parties to function freely. Hence you should grab this window of opportunity and organize yourselves and stand again for your country at this critical hour. This time it will not be with guns and tanks but in a manner the present time requires i.e. in an organized peaceful political struggle.

Below I will enumerate several disparate points that could help in the discussion as well as the cost-benefit analysis of what I am suggesting.

1. The creation of such a new political party could be a game changer in the Ethiopian political landscape and would give fresh oxygen and new vitality to the unity political forces, thereby creating a positive political dynamics. Hence it could have a big role in counteracting the negative effects of tribalism and ethnic politics in the country. This is because whatever their tribal or language background, members of our former defense forces, were strongly united under a “one Ethiopia” banner and were symbols of national pride and unity.

2. This is not a call for the revival of the Derg or the former EWP party. It is going to be a totally new party without any political baggage. However former Derg officials as well as former EWP members, like any Ethiopians should have the right to join the party as individuals. If former EWP members want to revive their old party, it is their right. However this call I am making has nothing to do with that. People should not confuse the former historical Ethiopian defense forces with the Derg. It is true that the Derg was an elite group (that became a regime) that came out of the military following the 1966(EC) popular uprising. However simply equating the historical Ethiopian defense forces with the Derg was and is a great historical mistake. Even though Ethiopia in her three thousand years of history had been defended by her many ancient fighters and armies, however the modernized historical Ethiopian armed forces which we have known in our generation (until it was disbanded in 1983(EC)), had its roots in the army of Emperor Tewodros from the middle of the nineteenth century. Hence Derg happened to be the final Ethiopian government or regime to expand and command this historic Ethiopian force.

3. The party should be founded by the former Ethiopian defense officers and soldiers but membership should be open for all Ethiopians and political elites.

4. Such a political party could be easily created in a relatively short time with the potential of recruiting members by the hundreds of thousands. This is because the number of former soldiers and officers and their family members (including families of those who died) is very large in both the cities and rural towns. These former members and their families (for various historical reasons and family sentiments) would be highly motivated to join such an Ethiopian party thereby creating a committed strong fan base across the nation and the diaspora.

5. It has the potential to recruit tens of thousands of committed members from the diaspora thereby having a strong financial base.

6. It has the potential to become a highly disciplined party because of the military background of its members and founders. This would have an advantage as its members can become a committed and strong political base. It could also have an orderly culture that could minimize the schisms and back door politics that have always characterized many Ethiopian political parties.

7. The party can begin with primary agendas like, reviving the “one Ethiopia” sentiment in the country, putting forward plans to improve the security of the country etc. However with the help of the political elites that could join the party, several political, social and economic plans and policies could be devised that would fit with its “one Ethiopia” policy. The party has the potential to win the affection of millions of Ethiopians (besides the former defense members and their families) as it would be a symbol of historical unity which once the country enjoyed. There is the nostalgia effect as well, as the members of our former defense forces would remind us of the Ethiopia we grew up where people saw each other as simply Ethiopians.

8. Such a party could also collaborate with other Ethiopian opposition parties who major in unity and citizen based politics. Such a working collaboration could create a formidable political force for any potential upcoming national elections.

9. The party can have as its agenda the pension rights of the former members of the defense forces. Instead of only the alumni associations raising this issue now and then in a non-organized way, the political party can actually put it as one of its agenda. This also has the advantage of attracting many former members and their families to the party.

10. The formation of such a party would do service to the sacrifices of the tens of thousands of the former defense force members and their families (including those officers and soldiers who took their own lives). They died for one and united Ethiopia. This party could continue and advance the cause for which these heroes died for.

These are suggested ideas to help in the discourse. It is just an idea. If you find it interesting expand and discuss it at length and let us see where the discussion leads.

As stated earlier Emperor Tewodros was the founding father of the modernized historical Ethiopia army (i.e. from the middle of the nineteenth century onwards).The key term here is “modernized”, because before that for 3 000 years, Ethiopia had many ancient armies in different eras. But the vision and the practical steps to modernize the historic Ethiopian army was first taken by Emperor Tewodros. Hence this modernized historical Ethiopian army that begun with Emperor Tewodros continued until 1983(EC) defending the country from foreign invaders as well as internal separatist groups. It was finally disbanded by Arab and CIA supported TPLF/EPLF when they came to power at the time when the cold war ended.

It is also in the heroism and image of Emperor Tewodros that our modernized historical army was shaped. That is why many high ranking as well as low ranking officers of the former Ethiopian defense force committed suicide during battles rather than face surrender. I am not encouraging suicide but we simply cannot underestimate the psychological influence of “Meyisaw Kassa” in the former Ethiopian armed forces. To give just one example, one cannot forget the emotional eye witness account of Lieutenant Tadesse Tele Salvano in describing the scene when the port city of Massawa was falling to the northern rebels. Brig. Gen. Teshome Tessema standing on the shore of the Red Sea and in front of an assembled group of Ethiopian soldiers and lower officers made a very emotional final historic speech saying that he felt very proud to have got the opportunity of emulating Atse Tewodros. Then he killed himself by firing his gun and fell into the sea rather than face surrender. According to the eye witness account, around 150 lower officers and soldiers also committed suicide on the spot following their commander. Shortly after that on the terrace of the Red Sea Hotel, Col. Belay Aschenaqi sitting on a chair, made yet another short final emotional historic speech to a group of few lower officers and soldiers and after turning his face to a nearby church (and made the cross sign) he too killed himself with his AK47 rifle. He was wrapped in the Ethiopian flag. Such kinds of stories are many and it shows the powerful impact that Emperor Tewodros had on our former historical armed forces and their commanding officers.

I will end this article with an original artistic print depicting Emperor Tewodros lying on the ground after his suicide in Maqdala. Some British soldiers of the 33^rd regiment are shown standing nearby looking towards the body (see Fig below). A gun can be seen lying next to the body. For many of you this picture could be familiar. I am not sure but I think I saw this picture in a historical book in Amharic (entitled “From Emperor Tewodors to Emperor HaileSelassie”) by historian Tekle Tsadiq Mekuria which I read as a boy. Once upon a time, by some means I came to possess this original antique wood engraving and other two antique prints depicting Emperor Tewodros. Wood engraving is a style of artistic print very popular in the nineteenth century Europe. The wood engraving shown in the figure below was printed one year after the suicide of Emperor Tewodros in Maqdala. It appeared for the first time in a French travel journal entitled “Le Tour du monde” 1869 (GC). The engraving was made by an engraver named Emily Bayard based on a sketch by a British eyewitness in Maqdala. In the nineteen century, book and newspaper illustrations were original artistic prints using methods like wood engravings. The mass produced photomechanical reproductions from presses and printing houses that we know today started sometime in the first decades of the 20^th century and they are basically copies or facsimiles hence could not be considered as original works of art (I leave the explanation about wood engraving and other similar methods to the experts). In any case this piece of historical print triggered a strong emotion in me the first time I handled it and I gazed at it for several minutes. It was cut from the very page of an 1869 (GC) Le Tour du monde French travel journal. It is really a captivating picture especially when you think you are holding an original print from the era. Maybe if a Museum is founded in the future to commemorate the history of this historic Ethiopian force, we will include such original antique prints in the collection. I leave you then with this powerful picture ( It is a photo I took of the antique print) as you ponder my call to create a political party that would represent the “one Ethiopia” sentiment of Emperor Tewodros as well as many of your comrades who drunk the cup of Meysaw Kassa.

ወደፊት በሉለት ይለይለት!

ኢትዮጵያ ትቅደም !

እግዚአብሔር ኢትዮጵያን ይባርክ!

Yishrun Kassa

yishrun_kassa@yahoo.com

July 5, 2019

Fig. Emperor Tewodros after his suicide in Maqdala

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ESFNA Atlant 2019: Ethiopian Day Celebration

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BBC

Sudan’s military leaders have reached an agreement with the opposition alliance to share power until elections can be held, mediators say.

The two sides agreed to rotate control of the sovereign council – the top tier of power – for just over three years.

They have also pledged to form an independent technocratic government and to investigate the violence of recent weeks, the African Union (AU) said.

News of the agreement reportedly sparked frenzied street celebrations.

Sudan has been in turmoil since the military ousted President Omar al-Bashir in April.

That followed a popular uprising against Mr Bashir, who seized power in a coup in June 1989.

Just days before the transitional deal was announced, vast crowds took to the streets to demand that the ruling military council hand power to a civilian-led administration.

Seven people were killed and 181 were hurt in clashes that followed, state media reported.

The latest round of talks took place in the capital, Khartoum, earlier this week and were mediated by the Ethiopian prime minister and members of the pan-African AU.

What has been agreed?

“The two sides agreed on establishing a sovereign council with a rotating military and civilian [presidency] for a period of three years or a little more,” AU mediator Mohamed Hassan Lebatt told reporters on Friday.

The agreement will see the military in charge for the first 21 months, then a civilian-run administration for the following 18 months.

It’s “the first step in building a democratic country,” said veteran politician Siddig Yousif, who was one of the main civilian negotiators.

Asked whether the civilian leaders could convince protesters who might be nervous about the presence of the military in government, Mr Yousif told the BBC: “It is a difficult task, but we’ll try to convince our people that it will be a success”.

Elections will be held once this transition period ends.

Both sides also “agreed to have a detailed, transparent, national, independent investigation into all the regrettable violent incidents that the country faced in recent weeks,” he added.

They have also agreed to postpone the establishment of a legislative council.

Image copyrightAFP

“We hope that this is the beginning of a new era,” Omar al-Degair, a leader of the opposition Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC), said after the announcement.

The deputy head of the Transitional Military Council (TMC), Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, said: “This agreement will be comprehensive and will not exclude anyone.

“We thank the African and Ethiopian mediators for their efforts and patience.”

What has the reaction been?

Protesters “definitely wanted much more” from the deal and many are a “little bit” sceptical about the details, says Lena al-Sheikh who was out on the streets of Khartoum at the height of the protests.

“We were saying: ‘Congratulations, is this real?'” she told the BBC’s Newsday programme.

“Because until 30 June, the military council has shown that… there was brutality against protesters, people died, people were hurt and we were thinking maybe this is never going to happen, maybe we are never going to reach an agreement.”

BBC regional analyst Mohanad Hashim says the deal falls short of demands for a totally civilian administration.

A sticking point for some people is that the military will choose the leader of the sovereign council first.

“The first 18 months looks like the military meaning to consolidate power and remain in power and just bide [their] time until they are able to leverage that to remain in control,” says Sudanese political commentator, Kholood Khair.

“What of [former President] Bashir? What of Salih Ghosh, the former head of the national intelligence service? There are many gaps in this document,” Ms Khair told BBC Focus on Africa.

As Sudan-based journalist Yousra Elbagir reports, an ongoing internet blackout in the country means many people may not yet know the details of the deal:

What is the background?

Last month, representatives of the protesters were in talks with the military over who would take control.

But negotiations collapsed when a military crackdown on 3 June left dozens of protesters dead. Doctors said 40 bodies were pulled from the River Nile.

The army said elections would be held within nine months. But the protest movement insisted on a transition period of at least three years.

When the talks broke down, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed flew to Sudan to try to broker a new agreement.

After days of talks, his special envoy Mahmoud Dirir announced that protest leaders had agreed to suspend widespread strikes and return to the negotiating table.

‘Cautious optimism’

Celebrations and scepticism have greeted the new deal. Will it hold? Fears of the unknown are not surprising.

In recent weeks the military appeared less willing to share power. But with international pressure and African Union mediation, they’ve accepted it.

The inclusion of a vague 11th member of the sovereign council, who AU mediators say “may or may not be a retired military officer” but is labelled civilian, may have convinced each side of a win.

But the position has the potential to make or break the deal. There are also concerns about the ambition displayed by Lt-Gen Mohamed Hamdan “Hemeti” Dagolo. The military council’s number-two heads the dreaded Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary group that’s been accused of brutality.

Hemeti came into the limelight as a fierce commander of the government-backed Janjaweed militia in Darfur.

Image copyrightAFP

Lately, he has openly reached out to tribal elders and foreign leaders, and signed up a Canadian firm to spruce up the image of the military.

Many would be uncomfortable if Hemeti gets a prominent role in the new arrangement, which is likely.

Regional interests, particularly in the Gulf, have been at play before, during and after the coup.

Whether the changes are down to the activism and sacrifices made by ordinary Sudanese, or steered by a hidden foreign hand, the road ahead will be tough.

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By Dawit Endeshaw

At least 70 migrants sheltered in the Tajura detention center in Libya have been killed by airstrikes, The Reporter has learnt. According to unconfirmed reports, Ethiopians might also be among those who are killed by the airstrike.

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If you keep silent during this ethnic cleansing of Amaras, you will be cursed by history and the coming generations!

Belayneh Abate

Again, the Amaras are filling up the prisons and torture chambers! It is a subhuman or worthless life to live a quiet and comfortable life while our source or base population is suffering from the endless massacre, incarceration, torture, displacement, hunger and preventable diseases

The Amara People faced ethnic cleansing because it was falsely and purposely declared as oppressor of  the “nations and nationalities.  As a result of these declaration, the Amaras have been subjected to systematic  massacre, incarceration, torture, sterilization, displacement, starvation, poor education and economical development.  As the testimonies, physical and mental status of Amara prisoners demonstrate, even the detention centers  were disproportionately harsher on Amaras.

No creature in the universe sits idle when its progenies face atrocities that lead to extinction. Most Amara elites have been sitting idle when their progenies have been systematically subjected to ill-treatment in every corner of the country.

As humans,  we hope the world to be fair, compassionate and free of corruption and crimes. In realty, the world is full of corruption, unfairness, injustice and murders.

Ideally, we want the globe to be free of racial, sexual, religious, social status or  other forms of discrimination.  In realty, the globe has been inundated with  any forms of discrimination since the birth of mankind.

Ideally, we wish the honest, the loyal and the just  govern nations. In realty, the liars, the traitors, the hypocrites, the criminals rule countries.

Because the liars, the traitors and the criminals  rule countries, the earth has been Hell for the weak since the era of genesis.

As we know, the Jewish people were massacred by the Nazis because they were  weak and blamed for all the problems of that time Germany.

Similarly, the Amaras have been massacred,  imprisoned, tortured, displaced, sterilized,  and subjected to illiteracy and starvation because they are blamed for all the problems of the country.  The elimination of Amara has continued and a large number of them are currently imprisoned,  displaced  even from the outskirts of Addis Ababa and other parts of the country where their forefathers protected spilling their blood since the earth was created.

Despite this survival threat of the Amara , the Amara elites still  talk about empty love, unity, reconciliation, forgiveness  standing behind the  Ethiopian People’s Democratic Front (EPRDF) appointed “prime mister “.  This  criminal prime mister is the leader of EPRDF that hanged water bottles on testicles  of men to sterilized Amaras. This hypocrite prime mister is the leader of EPRDF that administered unique birth control programs to sterilize Amara women. This prime mister is the leader of EPRDF that killed a son and forced his mother to sit on her son’s dead body.

As many opportunist elites think, this hypocrite- pastor  prime mister is not a man of love and unity. If he was a man of love and unity,  he could not have served the Tigre Peoples Libration Front for more than 20 years. If he was a man of love,  he could not have built a breast monument based on fire- place folktales.  If he was a man of love and God,  he could have gone to a Monastery for redemption and repentance, not to palace to have more luxurious life and fame at the expense of martyrs  his party crucified.

Dear Amara Elites, please stop believing the preaching of the hypocrite and criminal pastors. By the time criminal pastors preach about “unity and love”, the Amara People were being displaced even from the outskirts of Addis Ababa,  Begemidir,  Gojjam, Wollo and Shoa. Despite these ominous dangers the Amara people is facing throughout the country , some of you are still beating the drums with  the criminal unborn again pastor,  who spits empty love words. Empty love words come also from the mouths of monsters  that snatch believers from the hands of God. As the book of books teaches, you identify monsters by their past and current deeds, not by their empty words.

Ideally, we want the whole world to be united, to be fair and just. Unfortunately, the world has never been united, fair and just since Adam was through out to Earth from the Garden of Eden. Hoping the world will be united, fair and just  one day, the religious and  the cultured Amara people suffered more than the Jewish People suffered in Europe  for the last 28 years.

The Amara people that has never been tricked even by the sophisticated European colonizers were deceived and betrayed by its on  elites. Some  deplorable Amara elites  are serving Amara killers in different capacities, and majority others  have kept silent enjoying their luxurious lives. It is past due for Amara elites to stand by their people and teach the victimized Amaras about survival facts in a hostile environment.  One of these  survival fact is to understand what  Richard Connell said in his beautiful writing, the Most Dangerous Game:  “The World is Made Up of The Hunters and The Huntees.”

For  more than 42 years, the huntees have been the Amaras. Understanding this realty, the Amara elites shall stand in unison and support the struggle of the Amara for survival. Living a quiet life at this juncture is living the lives of the fat pigs! Let us not live the lives of fat pigs and die the death of the creeping soil bugs!

If you keep silent during this ethnic cleansing of Amaras, you will be cursed by history and the coming generations. Amaras, like your forefathers,  stand united and tall!  Thank you.

The writer can be reached at abatebelai@yahoo.com

The post Urgent Message to Amara Elites: Speak Up Against The Ethnic Cleansing of Amara! appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News & Breaking News: Your right to know!.

Nairobi /Brussels, 4 July 2019

What’s new? Officials representing the Sidama, southern Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group, are threatening to unilaterally declare the formation of a new regional state within Ethiopia’s federation on 18 July, unless the government meets a constitutionally mandated deadline to organise a referendum on the issue before that date.

Why does it matter? Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s planned transition toward multi-party democracy has already been marred by violence. If the federal government accedes to the Sidama’s constitutional demands without proper preparation, it could aggravate deadly unrest. But seeking to frustrate the demands is equally perilous.

What should be done? Abiy should offer Sidama leaders a referendum date that is the earliest operationally feasible. If the Sidama still declare their state unilaterally on 18 July, they should delay its formation until sensitive issues, particularly relating to multi-ethnic Hawassa city, are resolved.

I. Overview

Leaders ofthe Sidama people in southern Ethiopia have threatened to unilaterally declare their own regional state within Ethiopia’s federation on 18 July 2019. Each of the country’s ethnic groups is constitutionally entitled to a vote on forming a new state if its governing council requests one. The poll is supposed to take place within a year of the request, which in the Sidama’s case came on 18 July 2018. Yet with the deadline for the vote only two weeks away, the Ethiopian authorities have neither set a date nor started preparations. If poorly managed, Sidama statehood aspirations could fuel violence and deepen an ongoing crisis within Ethiopia’s ruling coalition. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and other coalition leaders should seek agreement with Sidama leaders, ideally on a later referendum date. If that proves impossible, and the Sidama declare a new state unilaterally, then their leaders should delay the state’s implementation while the parties resolve contentious issues. Deploying the army to stop the Sidama from declaring statehood, as Abiy seem ready to do, risks provoking greater bloodshed.

With little time remaining, the government has no good option. Granting the Sidama their state could trigger unrest in the restive Southern Nations Nationalities and Peoples Regional State that is home to around one fifth of Ethiopia’s more than 100 million people. A particular flashpoint is Hawassa city, now the Southern Nations regional capital, which the Sidama intend to designate as their own capital, potentially provoking opposition and triggering a fraught contest for what are currently Southern Nations’ assets. Minorities in the city and elsewhere could resist the new Sidama state. Moreover, its formation would intensify other statehood demands, particularly those of the Wolayta, the second largest ethnic group in the south. It could catalyse a violent unravelling of the Southern Nations.

Conversely, seeking to block Sidama statehood would likely lead to mass protests by Sidama that could also turn lethal. The Sidama are in no mood to accept further delays to forming a statefor which they have long campaigned. Their quest has gathered momentum that will be hard to stop. Sidama activists from the Ejjetto (“hero”, in the Sidama language) movement that has spearheaded the campaign say failing to hold the vote on time would breach their constitutional rights and justify self-declaration. The Ethiopian constitution and electoral laws make no provision for what happens if a statehood referendum does not take place within a year of its request, beyond that the upper house of parliament should resolve any dispute.

The Southern Nations upheaval comes at a difficult time for the country. Since assuming office, Prime Minister Abiy has embarked upon important reforms but contended with burgeoning inter-ethnic violence, which has killed thousands and displaced millions in the past two years. The Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), the ruling coalition which comprises four regional parties, is fraying. The EPRDF party that governs Southern Nations has lost most of its authority. The EPRDF parties representing Ethiopia’s two large ethnic groups, the Amhara and Oromia, are squeezed by ascendant ethno-nationalist movements within their own regions and, in response, have adopted harder-line positions in power sharing and territorial disputes. The killings of five top officials, including the military chief of staff, on 22 June, both reflected the EPRDF’s internal crisis and threaten to aggravate it. The EPRDF has proved incapable of responding effectively to the brewing crisis in Southern Nations, while national security concerns have hardened the mood in the capital Addis Ababa.

It is imperative that Prime Minister Abiy and federal authorities hold immediate talks with Sidama leaders. Deploying the security forces in a bid to prevent the Si­da­ma from self-declaring may prove costly. It could leave Ethiopian troops policing mass Sidama protests that turn violent, pitting protesters against security forces and Si­da­ma against other ethnicities. Instead, Prime Minister Abiy should seek an agreement with Sidama leaders that ideally entails a date for a referendum as early as operationally feasible, and, assuming that voters in that plebiscite endorse the proposal, a timeline for that state’s formation. For their part, Sidama leaders should accept such a compromise, which would hew closely to the constitution and would carry the smallest risk of conflict.

If it proves impossible to reach such an agreement and Sidama leaders move toward declaring their own state on 18 July, they should at a minimum agree to delay its formation to give themselves time to resolve contentious issues related to the new state. Particularly important is to soon reach agreement among federal and regional authorities, Sidama leaders and other Southern Nations ethnic groups’ leaders on plans for Hawassa, a fair division of regional assets and the relocation of the Southern Nations capital. The government also must manage other statehood aspirations that the Sidama’s new state will likely fuel. Prime Minister Abiy and other senior officials should build on a regional government study to negotiate with other groups on arrangements for a possible new configuration of multi-ethnic southern states formed from the rump Southern Nations. International partners and the federal government could offer increased budgetary support to help fund the new states and offset losses from the inclusion of relatively prosperous Hawassa within the new Sidama state.

II. A Long Campaign

Sidama demands are rooted in Ethiopia’s imperial history and the construction of the multinational federation in the mid-1990s. Conquerors primarily from the Abyssinian highlands incorporated Sidama territory into Ethiopia in the early 1890s. For decades it existed as part of a multi-ethnic province named Sidamo. Like other provinces, it chafed under a succession of emperors in Addis Ababa and rebelled under the Marxist Derg, which ruled from 1974 to 1991 and also ran a unitary nation state, albeit with an initial attempt at promoting regional autonomy in 1987.[1]

The Tigrayan-led EPRDF rebels who came to power in 1991vowed to devolve power to regions. The new constitution introduced what is commonly called ethnic federalism, a system that aims to protect the rights of Ethiopia’s ethnic groups and prevent the return of the abusive rule from the centre they had endured for centuries.[2] The charter allowed for self-rule in nine regional states, plus the federal capital, Addis Ababa. It went a step further, including provisions that are relatively easy to meet for further self-determination for “nations, nationalities and peoples” that share a “large measure” of language, culture or other traits and inhabit the same territory – even up to and including secession by regions as independent nation-states.[3]

In practice, the tight grip on power exerted for decades by the EPRDF did much to contain the constitution’s potentially centrifugal force. The ruling coalition discouraged autonomy demands that were viewed as destabilising. It kept regional state governments on a short leash through its four regional component parties, the Amhara National Democratic Movement (now the Amhara Democratic Party), the Oromo People’s Democratic Organisation (now the Oromo Democratic Party), the Southern Ethiopian People’s Democratic Movement (SEPDM) and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), as well as other closely affiliated parties that run the five other regions.[4]

In the south, the EPRDF’s decisions on federalism fuelled discontent, primarily among the Sidama. The ruling coalition initially created five multi-ethnic southern states in 1992 for a transitional period.[5] Ultimately, however, it bundled them into one, the Southern Nations, partlytoact as a counterweight to the populous Amhara and Oromia regions. At the same time, Ethiopia’s constitution granted six ethnic communities regional states that they overwhelmingly dominate, which brought advantages to those groups, or at least their elites, in allowing them to choose a working language, levy some taxes and legislate in areas such as education, health and land administration. In this sense, the amalgamation of the southern nations was something of an outlier and caused resentment among the Sidama, who were the south’s largest ethnic group and far more numerous than the population of some entire regional states.[6]

Violence associated with the Sidama’s statehood struggle has periodically erupted in Hawassa, a diverse city with a population of almost 400,000 that is growing at around 4.8 per cent a year.[7] It is both the capital of Southern Nations regional state and the administrative centre of Sidama Zone (zones are administrative sub-units within regions and in the highly diverse Southern Nations mostly have a single ethnic character), which sits on the eastern edge of Southern Nations and probably has slightly more than four million residents.[8] In 2002, police allegedly killed dozens of protesters on Hawassa’s outskirts during demonstrations against measures removing the city from Sidama Zone and making it directly accountable to the regional government.[9] Four years later, then-Prime Minister Meles Zenawi persuaded Si­da­ma leaders to suspend their pursuit of a regional state after the Sidama zonal council voted for a referendum on statehood.

After that, the Sidama’s campaign largely lay dormant until 2018, when it resurfaced as the EPRDF weakened, due to more than three years of anti-government protests and the ruling coalition’s own reforms, which were championed by the new premier, Abiy.[10] Over the course of the first half of the year, the Sidama held a series of grassroots consultations and petitions and 21 Sidama district assemblies voted in favour of a statehood referendum.[11] The assemblies’ action led to an affirmative 18 July 2018 vote at the zonal council, which mustered the support of more than the constitutionally required two thirds of Sidama Zone legislators.[12]

That vote meant, in turn, that the Ethiopian authorities had to organise a referendum within a year of the regional council receiving the zonal request – so by 18 July 2019 – and create a new regional state if a majority backs that option. The Ethiopian electoral board is responsible for organising referenda, though it has never held a vote on regional statehood before.[13] Prime Minister Abiy told parliament on 1 July that Southern Nations statehood demands are constitutional but can only be satisfactorily addressed through the correct procedure when the new board is fully up and running. He said failure to follow correct procedure for declaring statehood could result in federal intervention. “There is no government that can compromise Ethiopian unity”.[14] A federal official said the Abiy administration is amenable to Si­dama statehood but wants to consider the question as part of a constitutional reform process. He added that the government’s senior ranks are worried they will not be able to handle the situation. “They fear it could open a Pandora’s box”.[15]

Sidama activists portray their quest as part of the democratisation that Prime Minister Abiy has promised since coming to power and say greater autonomy will improve local people’s lives. They argue that statehood will end 130 years of oppression, adopting the mantra that theirs is the last generation that will struggle for autonomy. “This is our final sacrifice”, one said.[16] Ejjetto members say a task force of around 40 people, primarily Sidama academics, has made the necessary preparations for a new state.[17] According to task force member Filate Gigiso Boroje, who is also head of Hawassa University’s law school, public consultations on the new state’s constitution began on 11 June. The task force has prepared strategies for economic development, an “exit plan” from Southern Nations region that is being kept under wraps, and a blueprint for the putative new state’s administrative structure. “Sidama will proceed to declare a fully functioning state on 18 July”, Filate said.[18]

III. A Fraught Statehood Quest

Risks of violence related to the Sidama demands are high. According to a former senior federal official:

The situation is very volatile and carries considerable risk of serious deadly violence in Hawassa and elsewhere in the south. It is likely to further complicate the country’s difficult political situation.[19]

The primary hotspot is Hawassa itself, whose outskirts were the scene of the worst violence in 2002 when the Sidama protested against their zone losing administrative control of the city. Emperor Haile Selassie I founded Hawassa in the early 1950s on land inhabited mainly by Sidama. It has been a major commercial centre in Southern Nations since then, but it has also benefited from being the regional capital; for instance, it has been home to Ethiopia’s flagship industrial park since 2015. The city’s ethnic Sidama population has grown dramatically. It comprised 10 per cent of Hawassa’s population in 1994 but almost half in 2007, when the last census took place,and the same a decade later, according to estimates.[20]

Sidama leaders say Hawassa will be their new state capital and the Southern Nations government must relocate, likely meaning a decline in its revenue.If the Sidama unilaterally declare statehood and assert exclusive rights to govern Hawassa, violence could also break out between the Sidama and the city’s minorities, who may suffer reduced access to government jobs, contracts and services.[21] Some Sidama activists exhibit disdain for other Hawassa residents’ concerns. “Hawassa is Sidamaland”, one said.^[22]

The campaign for statehood has already cost lives. Dozens of people died last June in Hawassa during the main Sidama cultural festival and campaigning for a regional state. According to media reports, security forces killed protesting Sidama students.[23] Mob attacks by Sidama on ethnic Wolayta, the second-largest Southern Nations group, left perhaps ten Wolayta dead and thousands displaced.[24] The Sidama suffered deadly retaliatory violence in Sodo, the capital of neighbouring Wolayta Zone.[25] Sidama and Wolayta leaders, who have long competed for regional leadership, blamed each other for the violence.[26]

Getahun Garedew, the Southern Nations deputy chief administrator and a former top Wolayta Zone official, told Crisis Group that academics commissioned by the regional state’s government will present the conclusions of a seven-month study on a new configuration of southern states to top SEPDM and EPRDF committees in early July. Once the party leaders have agreed upon the way forward, he said, they will consult the Southern Nations public, though he did not specify how.

The electoral board has been held up setting the date for the Sidama referendum due to the same upheaval and insecurity that have led to delays in the census and local elections. “Forming a new regional government requires the country to be strong and stable”, Getahun said. He opposes Sidama self-declaration, as in his view forming a new state must be done according to constitutional procedure – through a referendum, in other words – and a unilateral approach will not benefit the Sidama people.[27]

Yet as the 18 July deadline approaches, Sidama anger is growing. Inaction from EPRDF leaders, the electoral board and the regional government has created mistrust among many Sidama, who accuse the authorities of passing the buck.^[28]All activists said they would not accept a referendum scheduled after the deadline.^[29] According to one:

We are not ready to listen to their talk. What we’re waiting for is to see whether they respect the constitution or not. The people of Sidama nation are sovereign, as stated in our constitution, and have the right of self-declaration and self-administration.[30]

A national group of five ethno-national organisations, known as the Peoples’ Alliance for Freedom and Democracy and comprising both Sidama and other groups, including the Oromo nationalist and until recently exiled guerrilla movement, the Oromo Liberation Front, said in a 9 May statement that failing to meet the Sidama demands would be “costly” for the federal and regional governments, apparently implicitly threatening upheaval if the Sidama do not get their way.^[31] One activist cited the group’s statement as representing the statehood movement’s views.[32]

Mass mobilisation has also been growing. Sidama women supporting a regional state attended a large rally on 9 April in Hawassa and the Ejjetto called a three-day strike in March to press its demands.^[33] Current Southern Nations President Million Mathewos, a former Sidama Zone chief administrator, has publicly expressed support for statehood. Meanwhile, the top former federal official told Crisis Group statehood is a “fait accompli” because of its legal basis and the Sidama people’s successful mobilisation.^[34]

At least ten other ethnic groups in Southern Nations have requested regional statehood demands, according to deputy president Getahun. Sidama statehood would likely fuel agitation by the Dawro, Gamo, Gofa, Gurage, Hadiya, Kafficho, Kambatta, Wolayta and other groups for their own regional states.[35] The Wolayta’s claim is particularly advanced. In May 2019, the group held a well-attended rally in Sodo to lobby for statehood, and their zonal council requested a referendum on 3 December, meaning the constitutional deadline for that vote is 3 December 2019.[36] One activist from the Wolayta National Movement, a new party formed to campaign for statehood, told Crisis Group the movement was not planning unilateral declaration but expected the government to adhere to the constitution in organising the referendum.[37]

Meeting the Sidama and Wolayta statehood demands – and others that could then intensify – would mean the wholesale breakup of Southern Nations. No compelling legal argument exists against such a breakup, as the constitution expressly allows ethnic groups to seek their own state, a fact an activist said Abiy acknowledged in June 2019 during town hall discussions with Sidama people.[38] But the region’s fracturing would risk provoking fighting, with indigenes potentially uprooting minorities from their homes, as has occurred recently on a large scale in several locations across Ethiopia.[39]In the south, past mobilisation around autonomy demands and local power-sharing arrangements has involved bloodshed.[40] The Wolayta’s successful campaign two decades ago for their own zone – their own administrative sub-unit in Southern Nations regional state – also saw deadly violence.[41]

IV. A Crisis within a Crisis

Sidama statehood demands come at a bad time for the federal government. Since taking office in April 2018, Prime Minister Abiy has carried out significant reforms: overhauling the federal security apparatus, making peace with Eritrea, releasing more political prisoners and inviting exiles to return home. These steps, while long overdue, have weakened the EPRDF’s unity, particularly coming after more than three years of anti-government protests that started in 2015, and have stirred old disputes about power sharing, internal borders and the degree of autonomy enjoyed by regions.[42]Some of the ruling coalition’s parties, notably the Amhara Democratic Party and the Oromo Democratic Party, face pressure from ethno-nationalist movements within their own regions, which they now feel compelled to outflank by toeing a harder line.[43]

The 22 June assassinations and alleged regional coup attempt in Amhara state both reflect the gravity of the crisis within the ruling coalition and risk aggravating it. The federal government blamed the attacks on Amhara regional state’s late firebrand security chief, Asaminew Tsige, who had pressed territorial claims against Tigray since being appointed in November. Asaminew reportedly died in a firefight with police one or two days after the assassinations. Popular support for Asaminew, as shown by large crowds at his funeral, doubts over the government’s account of the killings and arrests of Amhara nationalists have hardened regional opposition to Abiy’s government, and could push the Oromo and Amhara ruling parties further apart.[44] A new Sidama state and the breakup of the Southern Nations region would further stress a ruling coalition that for years has run a de facto one-party state, formally controls all tiers of government and is still critical to the country’s stability.

The question of political representation for any new southern state is fraught.[45] The EPRDF’s four regional parties have equal representation in the coalition’s decision-making bodies.[46] It is unclear whether parties emerging from new southern states would become EPRDF member parties, affiliates or independents – or, alternatively, remain represented by the SEPDM, the EPRDF’s southern wing. Ejjetto activists reject this latter option, citing what they describe as SEPDM’s neglect of Sidama interests. They say the new state could remain without political representation at national level, while following SEPDM policies, until the election scheduled for 2020.[47] If new parties become EPRDF members they would alter the balance of power within it, given that the ruling coalition takes decisions by majority, and so that carries huge sensitivities.

This potential impact, combined with existing fissures, could make the EPRDF more likely to fracture. Prime Minister Abiy has suggested unifying the EPRDF’s four parties and the other parties affiliated with the coalition that run five other states into a single ruling party.[48] The Tigray People’s Liberation Front, which was the dominant coalition member under Abiy’s predecessors, rejects the idea, largely due to its fear Abiy is trying to weaken regional autonomy. This raises the destabilising prospect of the coalition splitting, with the possibility of a new ethno-federalist grouping emerging that includes the TPLF, the Oromo Liberation Front and others – and which the new southern parties, if they opt out of trying to join the ruling coalition, might enter. Overall, increased EPRDF turmoil could further undercut the government’s ability to manage inter- and intra-regional tensions.[49]

Over the past year, the ruling coalition has not taken a clear public stance on the Sidama demands, though the SEPDM criticised the moves to form new regional states in November.[50] According to one former senior EPRDF figure, its last Congress, which was held in Hawassa in October 2018 and is the coalition’s ultimate decision-making body that meets at least every 36 months, was a missed opportunity to discuss the potential for Southern Nations fragmentation.[51] A senior official argued that Prime Minister Abiy was not attuned to the risks and party meetings had given the issue short shrift; EPRDF leaders reportedly planned to discuss the Sidama issue in mid-June but did not do so due to Abiy’s father’s death.[52] The 22 June assassinations almost certainly will require more of Abiy’s and other top leaders’ attention, and imminent EPRDF discussion of the academic commission’s findings is arguably too little, too late. With the country’s political powerhouse troubled and distracted, an unmanaged Southern Nations break-up starting with the Sidama’s self-decla­ra­tion looks like a real possibility.

V. Pulling Back from the Brink

The Sidama regional statehood campaign is not Ethiopia’s gravest challenge, particularly after the 22 June assassinations and the attendant risk of further violence. But it is the most urgent one, given the looming referendum deadline and the fact that, if mismanaged, it could aggravate other problems, particularly the EPRDF’s internal crisis and burgeoning intercommunal tensions. Last year, violence, much of it directed at local minorities, forced 2.9 million people to flee their homes, making Ethiopia the country with the highest number of conflict-related displaced in the world that year.[53] According to collated media reports, more than 1,500 people are estimated to have died in such violence since Prime Minister Abiy took office.[54] While Abiy has laid out ambitious measures for opening up politics, from unshackling the opposition, media and civil society to holding free elections and building an independent judiciary, his immediate priority must be restoring security.[55] That will become all the harder if the Southern Nations fractures violently.

No option is particularly good. The Sidama will accept nothing less than statehood, a goal for which they have long campaigned. Attempting to thwart that aspiration with the government in breach of the constitution is likely to lead to mass protests that would risk turning violent. But granting it risks clashes between Sidama and minorities in Hawassa and elsewhere, as well as a chaotic unravelling of the Southern Nations region amid other statehood claims, notably by the Wolayta.[56] Even if the government subsequently concedes to Wolayta statehood, agitation among other groups is likely, and the authorities would have to draw a line somewhere.

Some senior officials argue that the break-up of Southern Nations is too risky and that the government must step in to frustrate the Sidama’s aspirations and those of other southern groups seeking statehood.[57] It could, they argue, deploy the army to prevent the Sidama from self-declaring, potentially by blocking a planned zonal council self-declaration resolution. After the 22 June assassinations, increased national security concerns mean that the mood in Addis is particularly uncompromising.[58] Indeed, an August 2018 federal military intervention to remove an abusive regional leader in Somali state, though in a very different context, was largely applauded in Addis Ababa.[59]

Butany federal military intervention would likely prove counterproductive. The Sidama would most likely eventually self-declare in any case, while organising mass protests in Hawassa. The army and police would then face the formidable challenge of having to control those demonstrations without eliciting a violent backlash. Clashes would also likely erupt between Sidama, on the one hand, and Wolayta and local minorities, on the other. Prolonged turmoil would be a real risk.[60] Any heavy-handed crackdown would recall the authorities’ failed tactics during more than three years’ protests that led to the transition that brought Abiy to power.

Negotiating with the Sidama would be a wiser course. Prime Minster Abiy’s support cuts across ethnic divides and he is the transition’s pivotal figure. He should seek talks with Sidama Zone leaders. At the same time, the EPRDF and federal and regional authorities should make contingency plans for the likely break-up of Southern Nations and discuss possible new arrangements with all groups in the south, particularly those agitating for statehood.

Ideally, Prime Minister Abiy would persuade Sidama leaders not to self-declare. The two sides would agree on a new timeline for the Sidama referendum and, assuming that vote endorses a new Sidama state, for its formation. Federal and regional authorities would expedite the electoral board’s preparations and offer Sidama leaders a referendum date that is the earliest logistically feasible. For their part, Sidama leaders would accept this date and avoid a unilateral declaration of statehood, instead opting for a vote which, though late, would hew close to Ethiopia’s constitutional requirement and avert the need for an inflammatory self-declaration.

Such an agreement may prove hard to reach, however. Little time remains before 18 July, and Abiy and other EPRDF leaders are dealing with the fallout from the 22 June killings. For their part, Sidama leaders distrust the authorities, whose inaction in response to the referendum demand they view as a ploy to buy time and frustrate their campaign – which is also how they see the plan that deputy administrator Getahun outlined.[61] Sidama activists repeatedly state their unwillingness to relinquish the option of self-declaring a state.[62] Nor have the 22 June killings or the crisis engulfing the EPRDF changed their calculations. According to one Ejjetto activist: “The recent assassinations do not change our plans to declare a state. The assassinations are heartbreaking. We felt deep sorrow. But we are making ourselves ready for 18 July”.[63]

If it proves impossible to persuade Sidama leaders not to declare their own state on that date, Abiy should aim to strike an agreement with them that the new region will not be established until the main points of contention are resolved. This would mean reaching consensus on new administrative arrangements for Hawassa and on a fair division of the regional government’s assets, as well as of federal transfers (more than three quarters of Southern Nations spending comes from Addis). There appears to be space for such talks: Sidama activists state that the statehood movement’s position is the existing regional government would not need to be moved until the matter is settled.[64] The federal government could even consider tacitly blessing the Sidama self-declaration if in return the Sidama delay forming their state and enter talks to resolve these issues.[65] While not ideal, this course of action could fulfil the Sidama’s aspirations while averting a chaotic and potentially violent process of regional state formation.

At the same time, the government must accelerate its plans for dealing with other newly energised statehood aspirations. While the Wolayta’s population and history mean that their campaign will likely gather momentum, granting them their own state would supercharge other demands. Prime Minister Abiy and the federal authorities should negotiate with all the other campaigning groups – Dawro, Gamo, Gofa, Gurage, Hadiya, Kafficho, Kambatta, Wolayta and other groups – on arrangements for new multi-ethnic southern regional states, formed from the rump Southern Nations.Splitting what is left of the Southern Nations could go some way toward assuaging the bigger groups by offering them a degree of pre-eminence in new regional states, even if they do not get states of their own.To encourage these groups to put aside demands for their own states, the government and outside partners could offer increased funding to help build infrastructure and perform other tasks necessary for the new regional states and offset any revenue losses from Hawassa’s integration into a new Sidama state.

VI. Conclusion

While Ethiopia’s transition remains an inspiration across Africa and beyond, the challenges confronting Prime Minister Abiy are mounting. The EPRDF is under serious strain, as power shifts before and since Abiy assumed power have heightened grievances among its members. The ruling coalition is struggling to contain burgeoning intercommunal violence. Indeed, the growing ethno-nationalist sentiment some of its member parties espouse risks fuelling bloodshed. The 22 June assassinations and alleged regional coup attempt throw a sharp light on the gravity of the country’s political crisis.

Brewing troubles in the Southern Nations make things all the harder. Ultimately, all options for managing the Sidama’s statehood demands come with risks. But the government’s neglect of the problem and lack of a strategy to manage it have allowed it to fester, while the dearth of communication from Addis has sowed mistrust among the Sidama that will make it all the harder to resolve. Prime Minister Abiy already has a lot on his plate. But if mishandled, a Sidama self-declaration on 18 July could throw the Southern Nations into turmoil, which will complicate the prime minister’s ambitious agenda and efforts to address the country’s many challenges. The sooner Ethiopia’s premier acts, the better chance he will have of averting such a scenario. End

[1] “Proclamation of the Constitution of the People’s Democratic Republic of Ethiopia”, Proclamation No. 1/1987, 12 September 1987.

[2] Crisis Group Africa Report N°153, Ethiopia: Ethnic Federalism and Its Discontents, 4 September 2009.

[3] “Proclamation of the Constitution of the People’s Democratic Republic of Ethiopia”, Proclamation No. 1/1985, 21 August 1995.

[4] See Crisis Group Africa Report N°269, Managing Ethiopia’s Unsettled Transition, 21 February 2019.

^[5] “A Proclamation to Provide for the Establishment of National/Regional Self-Governments”, Proclamation No. 7/1992, 14 January 1992.

[6] According to the 2007 census, for example, Sidama Zone (zones are administrative units in regions) had three million inhabitants, 93 per cent of whom were Sidama, while only 183,000 people lived in Harari region. Ethiopia Population and Housing Census, 2007.

[7] “Socio-Economic and Geo-Spatial Data Analysis and Dissemination Core Work Process: 2009 E.C Socio-Economic Profile”, Hawassa City Administration, Finance and Economic Development Department, 2009.

[8] The creation of Sidama state would cut off Gedeo Zone from the rest of Southern Nations. The UN says attacks by Guji Oromo displaced more than 500,000 ethnic Gedeo last year.

[9] “Report 2003 – Ethiopia”, Amnesty International, 28 May 2003.

[10] Crisis Group Report, Managing Ethiopia’s Unsettled Transition, op. cit.

[11] Crisis Group telephone interviews, Sidama activists, May 2019.

[12] “Sidama’s quest for statehood”, The Reporter, 10 November 2018.

[13] An electoral official told Crisis Group in late May that the board needs time to develop procedures to conduct a regional statehood referendum. For example, the constitution does not stipulate clearly who participates in a statehood referendum. It implies that only the concerned group should participate in a self-determination vote, meaning that non-ethnic Sidama residents of the zone would be ineligible. A senior federal official confirmed this in a telephone interview. Anti-ethnic federalists view this as disenfranchisement. Crisis Group telephone interview, May 2019.

[14] Prime Minister Abiy said on 1 July 2019: “If you want an answer to a legal question through anarchy, you will not get a permanent solution”. A Sidama activist told Crisis Group the intervention threat was “dangerous” as it increases instability and there would be no change to the 18 July self-declaration plan. “I don’t know how in a very limited time Dr Abiy turns to be undemocratic and make such a kind of authoritarian speech. We are educating people to follow the law and not speech”. Another activist said it was the government that was in breach of the law. Self-declaration, he continued, would go ahead on 18 July. Crisis Group telephone interviews, July 2019.

[15] Crisis Group telephone interview, July 2019.

[16] Crisis Group telephone interview, May 2019.

[17] Crisis Group telephone interviews, May 2019.

[18] Crisis Group telephone interview, June 2019. A 12 June letter sent by “Sidama Community Members” to international organisations and embassies affirmed this position: “Sidama Administrative Council will declare the Sidama Regional State of Ethiopia on 18 July 2019”.

[19] Crisis Group telephone interview, May 2019.

[20] “Socio-Economic and Geo-Spatial Data Analysis and Dissemination Core Work Process: 2009 E.C Socio-Economic Profile”, Hawassa City Administration, Finance and Economic Development Department, 2009. A new census has been delayed since 2017, due primarily to insecurity. The high population density of surrounding areas has contributed to the Sidama influx into Hawassa and pressures on the city. The mainly rural districts of Sidama Zone such as Aleta Wendo, Dara and Shebedino have more than 500 people per square kilometre, at least five times the national average. Ethiopia Population and Housing Census, 1994 and 2007.

[21] Some people already report government bias toward Sidama residents and aggression by Sidama toward other groups. Crisis Group telephone interview, resident, May 2019. Also see “Hawassa – a city in a state of disorder”, Ethiopia Observer, 18 June 2019; “Is the Sidama Ejjeetto Peaceful?”, ECAD Forum, 1 March 2019.

[22] Crisis Group telephone interview, Sidama activist, May 2019.

[23] An activist told Crisis Group that security forces killed 32 Sidama. Crisis Group telephone interview, June 2019.

[24] “Deadly violence hits Hawassa as protesters call for Sidama state”, Ethiopia Observer, 14 June 2018.

[25] “Ethiopian police arrest 257 individuals for involvement in deadly riots”, Xinhua, 22 June 2018. The heads of Sidama and Wolayta zones resigned in June 2018 after Abiy visited the affected areas and requested that local leaders take responsibility for the violence. See “Sidama Zone head, Hawassa mayor resign”, The Reporter, 5 July 2018.

[26] “The Vilification of Sidama Nation by TPLF, Its Deheden and Wolayta agents is Categorically Deplorable!!”, press statement, Sidama National Liberation Front, 24 June 2018.

[27] Crisis Group telephone interview, Getahun Garedew, Southern Nations deputy chief administrator, 3 July 2019.

[28] For example, Tesema Elias, a task force team member and assistant law professor at Hawassa University, says that there has been a “conspiracy” by Abiy, the SEPDM and the electoral board. “The old region did not officially refuse to undertake the referendum, but it claims that the board is the only accountable authority”, he said. Crisis Group telephone interview, May 2019.

[29] Crisis Group telephone and email interviews, May 2019.

[30] Crisis Group interview, Mathe Mengesha, paediatric doctor in Hawassa and Ejjetto member, May 2019.

[31] “Shrugging off the Sidama’s quest by the Ethiopian government must come to an end by urgently fixing the date for referendum”, press statement, Peoples’ Alliance for Freedom and Democracy, 9 May 2019. The People’s Alliance includes the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF), and the lesser-known Sidama National Liberation Front (SNLF), which was formerly an insurgent movement known as the Sidama Liberation Front and campaigns for statehood. In March, the SNLF urged Ejjetto to work together with their Oromo counterparts, the Qeerroo, to foil enemy “plots”. Activists claim Sidama have lost out as Hawassa has grown in recent years and also present their demands as part of an anti-colonial struggle. See “Sidama’s quest for statehood and the question of Hawassa”, Addis Standard, 18 June 2019. Some Oromo express similar complaints about Addis Ababa’s expansion into Oromia. See “Ethiopia scraps Addis Ababa ‘master plan’ after protests kill 140”, The Guardian, 14 January 2016.

[32] Crisis Group telephone interview, Matte Mengesha, pediatric doctor and Ejjetto member, May 2019.

[33] “Sidama women stage rally to ask for regional statehood status”, Fana Broadcasting Corporation, 9 April 2019; “Hawassa on a second day strike after Ejeto call for protest”, Addis Insight, 14 March 2019.

[34] Crisis Group telephone interview, May 2019.

[35] “Demands for regional status rock Ethiopia’s south region”, 7D News, 2 December 2018.

[36] “A rally in Wolaita-Sodo called for Wolaita statehood”, Addis Insight, 17 May 2019; “As Southern Nations break free, pressure mounts on EPRDF”, Ethiopia Insight, 28 November 2018; Crisis Group telephone interview, Wolayta National Movement activist, June 2018.

[37] Crisis Group telephone interview, May 2019.

[38] Crisis Group telephone interview, July 2019.

[39] “Ethnic unrest tarnishes new Ethiopian leader’s reforms”, Reuters, 24 August 2018.

[40] Examples include the Konso people’s autonomy struggle, which involved deadly unrest in 2016 and 2017; fatal violence since 2017 in Tepi in a power struggle between Kafficho and Sheka people; and last year’s conflict between factions of Gurage and Kebena over Wolkite city in June 2018. See “Fugitive mediator clubbed by activists then charged with sedition as protests cleaved Konso”, Ethiopia Insight, 18 July 2018; “Renewed violence in Tepi, South Ethiopia, casualties reported”, Borkena.com, 31 January 2019; “Week-long riots in southern Ethiopia leave 15 dead: media”, Xinhua, 17 June 2018. In 2002, attacks by thousands of the ethnic Sheka and Majengir, frustrated that they were not able to run the local district after claiming an election win, left dozens of ethnic Tepi dead. Hundreds of Sheka were reportedly killed in retaliations. See David Turton (ed.), Ethnic Federalism: The Ethiopian Experience in Comparative Perspective (Athens, Ohio, 2006), p.196.

[41] In 1998-2000, security forces killed at least five people when the Wolayta successfully campaigned for their own zone and rejected the attempted imposition of a new composite language. See Data Dea, “Enduring Issues in State-Society Relations in Ethiopia: A Case Study of the WoGaGoDa: Conflict in Wolaita, Southern Ethiopia”, International Journal of Ethiopian Studies, vol. 2, nos. 1/2 (Summer/Fall 2005-2006).

[42] Crisis Group Report, Managing Ethiopia’s Unsettled Transition, op. cit.

[43] Crisis Group Statement, “Restoring Calm in Ethiopia after High-profile Assassinations”, 25 June 2019; Crisis Group Report, Managing Ethiopia’s Unsettled Transition, op. cit.

[44] Crisis Group Statement, “Restoring Calm in Ethiopia after High-profile Assassinations”, op. cit.

[45] See Crisis Group Report, Managing Ethiopia’s Unsettled Transition, op. cit.

[46] Each EPRDF party has a members’ congress, central committee and executive committee. A 36-member EPRDF Executive Committee comprises 9 members from each party’s top committee, while the EPRDF Council, the front’s second highest decision-making body, has 45 representatives from each party, and the EPRDF Congress is composed of equal members from each movement. Factions from the two largest groups, the 35 million-strong Oromo and the Amhara, whose region has around 30 million people, object to the equal vote of Tigray, which has a population of six million.

[47] Crisis Group telephone interviews, May and June 2019. One said the party was a TPLF tool to control southern groups and was no longer recognised by the people.

[48] “Displacement crisis not a precursor for a very bad future but residue of a very bad past: Mustefa Omer”, Addis Standard, 15 May 2019.

[49] The EPRDF designed and governed the federation single-handedly, brooking no dissent and crushing opponents. That is now set to change if Abiy’s government sticks to its commitments, raising the question of what will replace the EPRDF in the interim to coordinate and control autonomous regions.

[50] “Even though decisions made by zones are constitutional, it is against directions of the council – SEPDM”, Fana Broadcasting Corporation, 26 November 2018. In a recent meeting the EPRDF Executive Committee described “extreme ethnic nationalism” as a challenge – but that phrase could apply to any one of many parts of the country. “EPRDF Executive Committee concludes meeting”, Fana Broadcasting Corporation, 19 May 2019.

[51] Crisis Group telephone interview, May 2019.

[52] A leading opposition activist argued that Abiy should have pleaded with the Sidama leaders for more time to manage the democratic transition without the complication introduced by the southern demands. Crisis Group telephone interview, May 2019.

[53] The 2.9 million number comes from “Ethiopia: Figure Analysis – Displacement Related to Conflict and Violence”, Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, 2019. More than two million of the displaced have since returned home, an official from the disaster relief agency said on 31 May. “Over 2 mln IDPs repatriated to original villages, says an official”, Ethiopian News Agency, 1 June 2019.

[54] ACLED data accessed 1 July 2019. The actual figure is likely to be higher as media coverage of Ethiopia is relatively weak.

[55] Although he defended the federal system in his 1 July comments, the prime minister has previously said that constitutional change may be discussed after the election, an option new opposition party The Ethiopian Citizens for Social Justice Party backs. It wants changes to ethnic federalism, which critics say hardens subnational identities, causes intercommunal conflict and weakens Ethiopian citizenship. Tigrayan leaders say the country must remain a multinational federation to protect hard-won rights to self-rule. Strong ethno-nationalist movements also exist in the Amhara, Oromia and Somali regions.

[56] In its search for solutions, the Southern Nations government commissioned a group of academics last September to study a new configuration of states. They reportedly favour a return to five multi-ethnic regional states, as in 1992. Sidama activists, however, reject this option outright, as do Wolayta, as the latest attempt to frustrate their right to self-rule. Crisis Group telephone interviews, Southern Nations zonal officials, Sidama activists, Wolayta National Movement activist, June 2019. The latter said the only scenario under which they would consider the recommendation is if all other Ethiopian ethnic groups that dominate regions, such as the Amhara, Oromo and Tigray, shared power in their states with others.

[57] Crisis Group interview and telephone interviews, former federal official, Ethiopian diplomat and prominent Ethiopian political commentator, May 2019.

[58] In addition to Prime Minister Abiy’s 1 July comments, Defence Minister Lemma Megersa said in a 23 June speech that national integrity is paramount. “There’s no right that can be demanded where there is no country”.

[59] Crisis Group Report, Managing Ethiopia’s Unsettled Transition, op. cit.

[60] A senior foreign researcher on the Southern Nations described that option as a “recipe for disaster” that would lead to a “bloodbath”, as the Sidama are united, well-organised and determined to exploit their long-frustrated constitutional rights to a region. Crisis Group telephone interview, June 2019.

[61] Crisis Group telephone interview, July 2019.

[62] Crisis Group telephone interview, May 2019.

[63] Crisis Group telephone interview, June 2019. Another Sidama activist said: “The recent turmoil associated with assassinations has no direct relation with the Sidama case. But given a complex nature of the country’s political climate, the coup might have provided an opportunity for the government … to obstruct the Sidama from proceeding to self-declaration. [There are] hints that the government wants to follow a ‘let’s save the country first’ approach. But the Sidama people are already back at their task”. Crisis Group telephone interview, June 2019.

⁶⁴ Crisis Group telephone interviews, June 2019.

[65] Crisis Group telephone interview, May 2019.

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