Ninety-two prisoners have escaped from a prison in Gambella regional state in Western Ethiopia, state media, Ethiopia News Agency reported on Tuesday.

John Umod, Chief Police Inspector of Gambella City Prison, said the prison break occurred on Monday when guards were trying to stop a fight among inmates.

“A manhunt for the 92 escapees and an investigation are underway,’’ Umod said.

He noted that the prison was housing 316 inmates before the prison break.

In September 2016, a “failed prison break’’ near Ethiopia’s capital, Addis Ababa, left at least 23 inmates dead.

(Xinhua/NAN)

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April 13 , 2019
By BERHANE HAILEMARIAM
FORTUNE STAFF WRITER

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A subcommittee formed to handle legal issues related to Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 that crashed early last month has started the process of crafting a strategy to quantify the loss incurred to proceed with a compensation claim.

Formed under a steering committee chaired by Dagmawit Moges, minister of Transport, the team is led by the Office of the Attorney General.

The subcommittee will be working to determine claim losses and compensations. The committee is one of six subcommittees formed under the auspices of the steering committee immediately following the crash.

What damages require compensation, who is eligible for compensation, what the level of compensation is and who is the responsible party for any eventual claims will be investigated and addressed, according to Muse Yiheyies, communications director of the Ministry of Transport.

The Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau of Ethiopia, which has been leading the investigation under the Ministry of Transport, had released a preliminary report that indicates that the pilots on command followed the proper procedures, but uncommanded nose-diving was encountered before the crash.

“Shortly after takeoff, the Angle of Attack Sensor’s recorded value became erroneous, and the left stick shaker activated and remained active until near the end of the flight,” reads the preliminary report. “The airspeed and altitude values from the left air data system began deviating from the corresponding right side values.”

The 33-page investigation report has also established that the pilots were certified, the aircraft was issued an airworthiness directive, the takeoff was proper, and the cockpits followed the manufacturers’ and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) manual to manage the emergency.

The plane crashed shortly after takeoff from Bole International Airport on its scheduled flight to Nairobi, Kenya. On board were 149 passengers from 35 different countries, the pilot, the co-pilot, crew members and a security person. None survived the crash.

The flight took off on March 10, 2019, at 8:38am under the command of the 29-year-old captain, Yared Getachew, and his co-pilot, Ahmednur Mohammed. While Yared had logged 8,122 hours of flight time, the first officer had flown a total of 361 hours, according to the preliminary report.

A subcommittee formed to handle legal issues related to Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 that crashed early last month has started the process of crafting a strategy to quantify the loss incurred to proceed with a compensation claim.

Even though the preliminary report did not clearly mention that the nose-down was caused by the Manoeuvring Characteristic Augmentation System (MCAS), an automated safety system designed to prevent the plane from stalling or losing lift, industry insiders believe that the system was the cause of the crash.

This system was previously reported as a cause of Lion Air’s plane crash, which claimed 189 lives five months ago when Lion Air Flight 610 fell into the Java Sea shortly after takeoff from Jakarta, Indonesia last October.

“I am not surprised [the MCAS is not explicitly mentioned in the preliminary report],” Tewolde GebreMariam, CEO of Ethiopian Airlines, told CNN, adding that the accident investigation will continue with detailed analysis until the full and detailed report is released after a year.

“We all know from the Digital Flight Data Recorder (DFDR) and Cockpit Voice Recorder (CVR) that there were uncommanded nose-down automatic activations that occurred three times in the plane,” Tewolde said.

The preliminary report has also forwarded two safety recommendations for Boeing and aviation authorities. It advised the aircraft manufacturer to revise the control system, while aviation authorities were requested to make sure the control system has been adequately addressed.

On the same date the preliminary report was released, Boeing which has booked nearly 5,000 orders for the model and has already supplied 350 to 54 operators around the world, issued an apology. The company also announced that they have been working on software updates to fix the problem.

“We at Boeing are sorry for the lives lost in the recent 737 Max accidents,” said Dennis Muilenburg, CEO of Boeing.

“We now know that the recent accidents were caused by a chain of events,” reads a statement from Boeing, “with a common chain link being erroneous activation of the aircraft’s MCAS function.”

The statement adds that “we have the responsibility to eliminate this risk, and we know how to do it.”

Boeing proclaims that it has finalised software update and is on the final certification stage.

After the crash, Ethiopian Airlines grounded all of its Boeing 737 Max 8 aircraft. The crashed plane was the fifth in an initial order of 30 planes that have a minimum price of 120 million dollars. China was the first to ground the planes after the crash followed by over 60 countries and operators including the United States.

“The Ethiopian government will carry out the legal procedure as per international and our own legal procedures,” Dagmawit told journalists last Thursday, April 4, 2019, at a press conference held at the premises of the Ethiopian Roads Authority (ERA) on Ras Abebe Aregay Street.

Legal proceedings against Boeing and Ethiopian Airlines have already started.

Boeing was sued in Chicago by two separate fillings: a Rwandan child whose father was killed in the accident, and the parents of an American woman who was on a work trip aboard Flight 302.

The legal aspects have also attracted many lawyers both within and outside of the country. Lawyers are approaching family members of the victims to represent them in a court battle that is expected to take three to five years.

One of the families approached by a legal firm from France is the family of Sintayehu Shafi, a 33-year-old senior instructor at the Motor & Engineering Company of Ethiopia (MOENCO), who was on board the fateful flight heading to Nairobi for a week-long training facilitated by his employer.

“We wanted to observe the situation first,” said Leul, brother of Sintayehu, “thus we declined the request.”

The family is also closely working with MOENCO to handle all of the issues including legal issues, according to Leul.

Shakespear N. Feyissa, an Ethiopian-born legal practitioner for 17 years in Seattle, where Boeing 737 Max 8 models are manufactured, is one of the lawyers who came to Ethiopia to work with victims’ families in suing Boeing.

Partnering with 20 lawyers that have experience in trial and aviation law in Seattle and Chicago, he is in Addis Abeba now to represent clients against Boeing.

“We have already interviewed pilots and engineers who know the MCAS well,” Shakespear told Fortune. “We aim to hold Boeing liable and make sure that same incident does not happen to other families.”

Shakespear’s law office has won some verdicts in the United States, including a Seattle newscopter that crashed on the street in 2014.

“Boeing would try the trial in Ethiopia and make Ethiopian Airlines the co-defendant,” Shakespear said. “We will work to prevent that from happening.”

Boeing claims that it has established a committee that will confirm the effectiveness of the company’s policies and processes for assuring the highest level of safety on the 737-MAX program.

“The committee will also assure our other aeroplane programs, and recommend improvements to our policies and procedures,” reads a statement from Boeing.

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• By KYLE HIGHTOWER AP Sports Writer

Apr 15, 2019

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By Ataklti Tsegay Tesfay,MD

On part one of my article, I tried to write about the depth and magnitude of the ethnic conflict induced crisis of the internally displaced peoples (IDPs) in Ethiopia which has been neglected or not paid attention, for almost a year.  Such displacement has a significant negative effect on people’s lives and livelihoods. The IDPs and returnees are exposed to protection risks, suffer constrained access to basic social services, and experience the disruption and loss of their livelihoods. The latest IOM assessments confirm that there are 3.19 million IDPs and returnees in need of assistance, out of whom 30 percent are experiencing acute needs [1].

Conflict continued to drive displacement, leading to a significant increase on the number of food insecure IDP populations and host communities. In Gedeo Zone of SNNPR, thousands of households were displaced from Guji zone of Oromia region, beginning June 2018 following the ethnic conflict. This area is one of the most densely populated areas in the country with high number of children per mother; hence you can imagine the size of a household displaced in Gedeo-Guji areas. Local and international media reported about the worsening IDP situation in Gedeb woreda prior to the visit by the high-level Government officials. The situation has been particularly dire in Gotiti kebele, Gedeb woreda where, according to interviewed IDPs in the area,” IDPs were deprived of assistance for the past 8 months because humanitarian partners were denied access” [2].  As a result, acute malnutrition worsened, and protection of disease outbreak risks heightened. According to the Germany’s international broadcaster, Deutsche Welle (DW) Amharic, as reported on March 16, 2019, currently up to four civilians are dying every day due to lack of nutrition, prevalence of water-borne diseases and lack of hygiene [3]. Such news is devastating, but unfortunately it is the reality what innocent citizens are facing. Though such catastrophe has nothing good to tell, it is painful to see severely malnourished children and nursing mothers lying in camps that can hardly be taken as shelters. As seen posted on different websites, things that were easy to prevent and reverse are getting out of hand due to lack of keen leadership and organization within the government.  The government has chosen to externalize the cause, instead of addressing its own limitations, to fix the root cause of the problem that has already imposed pain and suffering, in to the life of millions of innocent civilians. What is more worrisome is that IDPs in Gotiti have suffered secondary and tertiary displacements from their areas of origin indicating the alarming level of state failure to protect the very same people the state is there to protect.

“The Crisis below the Headlines: Conflict displacement in Ethiopia”, 14 Nov 2019, The Refugee International(RI) Reports , shows in September 2018 a team of Refugee International travelled to the Southern Oromia and SNNPR to assess the situation of the displacement and the response. The team found that, the government made a proactive effort to partner with international humanitarian organizations. The New PM’s administration took laudable action in collaborating openly with the UN agencies and other humanitarian organizations to mobilize and coordinate a response to the plight of IDPs. Unfortunately, like the nature of the government on other matters, this positive trend was swiftly vanished. It is the must to do job   for any responsible government, to work hard on it and allay with partners to prevent such devastation from happening. But the government seems to deny the reality rather prefers to give priority to sale the image of the government than to get evaluated on practical benchmark. In late August 2018, the government started to restrict the delivery of assistance, telling IDPs that they would only receive help if they return home, to force them to return to their home. It is against the fundamental principles of natural justice, to withhold to provide necessities of life to force people to comply with the need of government officials. It is easy to understand with common sense that nothing can replace home. However, because many return areas were destroyed in the violence the IDPs feel insecurity to return to their home without prior fixation and promise to get adequate protection. IDPs who were forced to return to domicile found themselves living in a secondary displacement site [4].

If such degree of government’s awareness was there early from the outset of the displacement (as mentioned above) and if the UN agencies and other humanitarian organization were willing to partner the government in alleviating the problem, why all this terrible chain of events allowed to happened without adequate response by the responsible governmental organizations??. Though late, it is good that the government has started to act, but the Ethiopian people need effective response: why so late after being displaced by conflict, being in a shelter which is well below the UN standard for camp shelter space[5]  and with No or very limited basic nutritional and health services for nearly a year? The fact that even it was not visited by a single high-level government official while the government is there to reach in such top priorities of its people poses a question? Thanks to The Guardian and different local media, the issue received coverage of different powerful media outlets. It’s after this irreversible damage to the propaganda of the government that the government was forced to acknowledge the devastating problem of the IDPs in Gedeo areas and started to act, including site visits by high level federal and regional authorities.

More Alarming, Such kinds of devastating tragedy could potentially happen in other IDPs centers/sites as well. Either due to security problem or negligence of the government, there are areas which are still difficult to access or not accessible for humanitarian assistances. A report from the UNOCHA issued on 29 March 2019  on Ethiopia’s Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) clearly mentioned that  access has been impeded or prohibited, resulting in the likely disruption or cessation of routine health and nutrition service delivery. The government either knowingly or due to lack of capability, is not working to place law and order all over the country. Notably the situation in Dawe zone of Somali region where access was impeded throughout 2018 requires partners intervention to curb rising acute malnutrition; Kamashi Zone, Benishangul Gumuz where access has been limited since last September 2018 and concerns have been raised regarding significant loss of trained health personnels [6]. In addition to the shortage of humanitarian aid supplies, this difficulty in access to deliver basic humanitarian and health services-like water, food, first aid kits… to the IDP collection centers may lead to lack of sanitation and hygiene, and it is obvious that acute malnutrition will take over. In such scenario Acute Watery Diarrhea, Measles and other infectious diseases may occur in an epidemic form. Obviously Pregnant mothers and children are most vulnerable social groups. Considering the current difficulty of access to these IDP centers, the existing shortage of life saving resources, and the approaching of the rainy season, one can imagine the magnitude of the Epidemics (if it occurs) and its consequences in terms of human life. Hence planned, coordinated, well prioritized and very urgent humanitarian assistances and interventions are mandatory at this time.

What is Most worrisome is still ethic induced conflicts are going on, which may lead to further increments of the internally displaced people, hence the government has to do its number one job – Law and Order !!!!!

References

1. Vulnerability and food insecurity among Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in East and West Hararghe zones, Ethiopia – March 2019. Report from World Food Programme. Published on 03 Apr 2019
2. Ethiopia Humanitarian Bulletin Issue #5 | 4-17 March 2019. Report from UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. Published on 17 Mar 2019.
3. Deutsche Welle (DW), Amharic. Live TV report. Reported on March 16, 2019.
4. “The Crisis below the Headlines: Conflict displacement in Ethiopia”, The Refugee International (RI) Reports. By Mark Yarnell. November 2019.
5. Ethiopia’s Neglected Crisis; No easy way Home for doubly displaced Gedeos. Report from IRIN. 28 Feb 2019. Ethiopia
6. Ethiopia: Immediate Humanitarian Funding Priorities (for April-June). A report from the UNOCHA issued on 29 March 2019 on Ethiopia’s Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP).

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ABIY AHMED

By Feyisa Lilesa

In 2016, the situation in Ethiopia was very bad. People were being killed and many were in jail, and I wanted the world to know what the government was doing. That’s why, during the 2016 marathon at the Rio Olympics, I crossed my wrists at the finish line—to symbolize that the Ethiopian people want to stop the killing, stop the jailing. We don’t want a dictatorship.

After that, I knew I wouldn’t be able to go back. The government was killing dissidents. I missed my country; I missed my mother. She cried to me on the phone every day for two years.

Then last March, while I was training in Kenya, I heard that Dr. Abiy Ahmed would be the next Prime Minister. In Ethiopian history, we have never seen a leader like him. He’s an educated person who talks about unity. He has released thousands of people from jail. He brought peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea after 20 years of war. And he made it possible for me to come home.

Yes, people are still protesting. But now, when they protest, they aren’t going to jail. To me, that is democracy. That is hope.

Lilesa is an Olympic-silver-medalist marathoner

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17 April 2019

Amnesty International spokespeople are available for interview

Responding to news that former Sudan president Omar Al-Bashir is being detained in Kober prison in Khartoum, Joan Nyanyuki, Amnesty International’s Director for East Africa, the Horn and the Great Lakes, said:

“Omar Al-Bashir stands accused of crimes against humanity, war crimes and genocide, and must be immediately handed over to the International Criminal Court (ICC) for due process to be followed. His case must not be hurriedly tried in Sudan’s notoriously dysfunctional legal system. Justice must be served.

“An ICC trial is not only vital for the victims of the atrocious crimes that led to his indictment but must constitute a first step in ensuring justice and accountability in the country. Sudan must take urgent steps to rebuild its justice sector but, in the meantime, the only way victims of his alleged crimes will see progress towards justice are if Bashir faces a fair trial at the ICC”.

Meanwhile the authorities in Sudan must ensure that Al-Bashir, along with all other people arrested and detained since the military coup, are protected from torture and other ill-treatment that have been typical of imprisonment in Sudan.

“More than a decade after the first arrest warrant was issued against him in 2009, the time has come for Al-Bashir to face justice at the ICC,” said Joan Nyanyuki.

The ICC has issued two arrest warrants for Al-Bashir on the basis that there are reasonable grounds to believe that, along with war crimes and crimes against humanity including murder, extermination and rape, he has committed genocide against the Fur, Massalit and Zaghawa ethnic groups.

Amnesty International has cautioned countries against sabotaging justice for victims of the war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide that Al-Bashir is accused of by offering him asylum.

ENDS

Public Document
****************************************
For more information or to arrange an interview please contact Catherine Mgendi on:

+254 737 197 614
email: catherine.mgendi@amnesty.org

Out of hours contact details
+44 20 7413 5566
email: press@amnesty.org
twitter: @amnestypress

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Abel Abate Demissie & Ahmed Soliman

The prime minister has made great strides at reforming the authoritarian state in his first year. But how will he confront the hurdles ahead?

Addis Abeba, April 17/2019 – It has been a whirlwind year for Ethiopia since Abiy Ahmed became prime minister. He has initiated a raft of reforms to overhaul Ethiopia’s authoritarian government structure, significantly improved relations with neighbors and received widespread international acclaim, including a nomination for the Nobel Peace Prize. But the same period has seen a sharp increase in lawlessness, intensified domestic conflict, heightened identity-based violence and huge internal displacement.

The fervor of ‘Abiymania’ has waned in recent months, as the reality of the monumental tests that lie ahead hit home. Having created massive expectations among competing constituencies, there are growing fears that Abiy’s reforms might end up achieving neither good governance nor stability. To date his accomplishments far outweigh his shortcomings. But significant tests lie ahead.

For his government’s undoubted successes to be built on, the prime minister needs to re-double focus on the domestic agenda. This includes dealing with the growing unrest, revitalizing the ruling party under a common vision and detailing a strategy for institutionalizing political, judicial, security, economic and social reforms. This restructure will require well targeted and sequenced plans, along with his unifying philosophy of Medemer, especially given continued institutional capacity constraints.

Domestic Challenges Abound

Ethiopia’s political landscape shifted on its axis when Abiy Ahmed came into power in April 2018 following large-scale anti-government demonstrations and the resultant crackdown that had brought the country to the verge of national collapse. Prior to Abiy’s election, the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), nominally a coalition of four ethnically based parties, had been dominated by the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) for over 25 years. The prime minister is the country’s first leader from the Oromo Democratic Party (ODP), representing around 35 per cent of Ethiopians. For many, being ruled by an Oromo redresses a historical imbalance in power dynamics that had favored the people of the northern highlands. His election to lead the EPRDF averted further national breakdown and the prime minister is now arguably as popular in some opposition camps as he is in his own party.

More immediately, there are questions about the future of the EPRDF under Abiy Ahmed’s stewardship. He has largely discarded the revolutionary ideology and developmental state economic model that glued the party together and favors Western educated technocrats over loyal cadres for senior positions. He has ensured that half the cabinet are womenand that there are prominent ministers from marginalized regions and different faiths. Many see the party as an empty shell and the prime minister has done little to dispel notions of the country being in a post-EPRDF era, recently saying “I have never paid attention… whether the EPRDF is together or not. But I don’t think we’ll split apart.” However, the party has a membership of nearly 8 million people – a vast network that cannot simply be abandoned – despite its numbers waning in the last year as uncertainty looming about the party’s future. The argument that it is essential to make EPRDF work is not based on the notion that the party has popular legitimacy, but because member parties have the capacity and willingness to inflict further damage to the dwindling power of the state.

Disputes have also intensified between member parties (as well as within the regions led by those parties), amid a widespread perception that ODP is replacing TPLF as a hegemon. The reasons indicated for this are the increasing dominance of ODP within the executive, at the federal government level, as well as within Addis Abeba city administration. Strains have begun to show in the alliance between ODP and the Amhara Democratic Party (ADP), particularly over representational issues and the jurisdictional status of the capital city Addis Abeba, which is also the capital of the Oromia region, known as Finfinne in Oromo language.

In addition, ADP faces its own serious discontent in the Amhara region and a severe challenge in the next election from the ethno-nationalist National Movement for Amhara (NaMA), as well as to a lesser extent unitarian parties like Ginbot 7. The ODP itself faces a stern test and extremely divided loyalties in Oromia between prominent personalities, activists and opposition parties like OLF (Oromo Liberation Front) and the Oromo Federalist Congress (OFC) despite the popularity of Abiy Ahmed and his ally Lemma Megersa, President of Oromia.

The Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ (SNNP) region is in the process of balkanization. Dozens of zonal administrations have formally requested to hold referendum to split from the region and form their own regional states. The most notable demand is from Sidama region, with a population of more than four million people.

Since losing dominance with Abiy’s emergence to power, the TPLF has retreated to regroup in the regional capital Mekelle. Although the TPLF has maintained relative peace, its ongoing enmity with the Eritrean leadership, refusal to cooperate with the federal government on numerous issues and its border dispute with the Amhara region has isolated the region. But the party still presents itself as the custodian of the constitution and federal government.

2020 Election: The Litmus Test

The prime minister has talked about creating a national party that moves beyond ethnic lines and altering the constitution to institute a presidential system that he argues would be more egalitarian and inclusive, enabling ‘any Ethiopian living in any corner of the country’ to become president. His short-term calculation is more likely that universal suffrage, coupled with regional alliances increase the likelihood of a populist figure like himself being re-elected. Abiy has also suggested installing a two-term limit, although this is yet to be enacted.

While the 2020 national elections could provide the mandate that the prime minister needs to deliver such changes, the parameters and the date for this vote have yet to be decided and the current security environment makes it difficult to conceive of viable elections being held.

In several regions the government parties (assuming EPRDF will stick together until then) will face divided loyalties, serious discontent and challenges from ethno-nationalist movements, as well as to a lesser extent unitarian parties. For Abiy to consolidate his power at the federal level his party ODP will need to win convincingly in Oromia, and he has put a lot of energy into courting opposition parties. Formerly banned parties which have recently returned, like Patriotic Ginbot 7, may welcome an election postponement, to enable them to reengage and strengthen their support base, while some federalist forces like the Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and NaMA are demanding that the vote be held on time. The TPLF, which does not have a significant challenger in Tigray, insists that delay would amount to a constitutional breach.

A national census that was supposed to be conducted ahead of the elections has been postponed indefinitely because of security concerns and massive displacement in the regions. This delay has been contentious and heavily politicized because it influences the amount resources and power the federal regions receive. Demographics are acutely sensitive at the current juncture given the shifting political sands and the long-term significance of the forthcoming election.

Ethiopia’s Security Crisis

Abiy Ahmed inherited a parlous security situation. Inter-communal violence has resulted in nearly 3 million internallydisplaced people (IDPs), with over 1.4 million in 2018 alone, the highest numbers globally. In addition, disputes between and within regional states have worsened, with varying levels of clashes between Oromia and Benishangul; Oromia and Somali; Somali and Afar; and Tigrai and Amhara. The worst has been the Guji and Gedeo crisis, resulting in the displacement of 1 million people, many whose farms and homes have been destroyed and for whom access to humanitarian assistance has been restricted.

The security situation has worsened partly because the government’s monopoly of the legitimate use of force has been diluted among several actors. The current escalation of violence is not only directed from the government to the people (as has been the case in Ethiopia for centuries) but is also among individuals and groups as well. The fact that Abiy has targeted Ethiopia’s authoritarian security agencies (from which he hails) has arguably exacerbated the problem. Senior officials have been relieved from their positions or arrested under corruption charges. This has resulted in the TPLF and Tigrayans feeling targeted by the government. Restructuring these institutions has caused a damaging power vacuum which needs to be replaced with an effective means of exercising force in the interests of national security and stability.

The prime minister has failed to respond adequately to these complex crises beyond establishing ad-hoc commissions, including one for Reconciliation and one for Administrative Boundary and Identity Issues. The government must move beyond symbolism and empower institutions – particularly the recently established Ministry of Peace – to deliver local reconciliation efforts that are linked to a genuinely inclusive nationwide peace process.

‘It’s The Economy, Stupid.’

While Ethiopia boasts the highest GDP growth in Africa, it slowed below 8 per cent in 2018. Abiy Ahmed has disrupted Ethiopia’s state-led developmental model, centered on domestically financed large-scale industrialization and infrastructure projects; and instead sought to tackle Ethiopia’s debt and currency crisis by renegotiating Chinese loans, seeking financial and technical support from the World Bank, and courting new investment from the Gulf and Western partners.

The government has also begun a cautious move to private sector-led liberalization, with initial privatizations planned in the telecom and logistics sectors, but have put the brakes on all-out reform after criticism of plans to sell-off profitable companies like Ethiopian Airlines. The leadership wants to avoid moving from a state monopoly to a business monopoly and this will be a staged process, starting with regulatory reform and a greater role for business in job creation.

Despite a complicated operating environment, private sector appetite to invest remains strong and the government is keen to bring in more foreign currency to help alleviate its debt stress, particularly as the country is not able to substantially increase earnings from exports in the short term. Regional and international banks are keen to enter the market and there are efforts towards banking sector reform under Yinager Dessie, the new Governor of the national bank. Parliament also ratified the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), which is a useful step as the financial sector is one of the five areas required to be opened by the parties of under service sector liberalization. Ethiopia moved to facilitate greater inter-African mobility, adopting a visa on arrival policy for Africans in line with the African Union’s decision to improve regional integration on the continent.

Tackling youth unemployment is a critical challenge in a country of 100 million people, with two million young peopleentering the job market every year. Ethiopia plans to create a million jobs a year through the expansion of its industrial parks and rapid growth in the manufacturing and services sectors. But even this will not be enough given population growth pressures and the demands to reduce poverty. Cognizant of the role of youth in toppling the previous EPRDF leadership, Abiy has focused on transforming the capital city rather than rural areas, claiming that ‘if you can change Addis…you can change Ethiopia’. However, it is important to note that the protests were largely spearheaded by rural youth and in order to reduce Ethiopia’s inequalities, transformation needs to start in the rural areas, home to approximately 80 per cent of the population. It is another difficult balancing act.

Fostering Regional Peace

Abiy Ahmed’s major foreign policy success has been the normalization of relations with Eritrea after twenty years of discord, bringing a massive peace dividend to a vast area of the Horn of Africa that had long been undermined by proxy conflicts between Addis Abeba and Asmara. Within weeks of a landmark July 2018 meeting between the prime minister and Eritrea’s President Isaias Afewerki, essential services were restored. Nonetheless, fundamental challenges remain in the relationship, including the need to outline details of a lasting political and economic cooperation framework.

The establishment of a sub-regional trilateral committee comprised of Ethiopia, Eritrea and Somalia is positive; however it should not be at the expense of maintaining good relations with traditional allies Djibouti, Sudan and Kenya; or impede reforms needed to make the Intergovernmental Authority on Development a truly functional regional organization. Abiy Ahmed’s role in improving prospects for lasting peace in the Horn has created a significant reservoir of regional and international goodwill. Yet if lasting solutions are to be found, he will need to engage with multilateral organizations rather than relying on one-to-one dialogues.

Ethiopia’s relationship with the Gulf states has also significantly improved over the past year, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE playing a role in brokering peace with Eritrea, Addis Abeba partnering with Abu Dhabi and Riyadh to improve economic integration in the Horn, and several new agreements on economic and military cooperation, including the UAE pledging $3 billion in aid and investment.

Abiy Ahmed has made great strides in his first year by challenging the status quo and disrupting the authoritarian state machinery. Yet, Ethiopia remains at a cross roads, and there remains significant uncertainty about the road ahead despite the prime minister’s intentions and the force of his personality. In his second year he must strive towards building a plural, democratic and stable political order, focusing on developing lasting institutions. For the prime minister’s reforms to stick he needs to revitalize the EPRDF under a new common vision and implement a sound economic strategy that consolidates hard-won recent gains. Most importantly, Abiy needs to address a deteriorating security situation that threatens the survival of the country. The burgeoning relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea and broader regional integration, including across the Red Sea, needs to be expanded, but not at the expense of traditional allies and regional multilateralism.

Ultimately, Ethiopia’s many challenges are far more than one leader can tackle alone, and Abiy Ahmed must trust in the expertise around him to ensure the support and goodwill generated in his tumultuous first year is not squandered. AS

____________________________________//____________________________________

Editor’s Note: This is an expanded version of an Expert Comment produced by Chatham House

Abel Abate Demissie is Political Analyst; PhD Researcher in Global and Area Studies. He tweets at @Abele_a

Ahmed Soliman is Research Fellow, Horn of Africa, Africa Program at Chatham House. He tweets at @AhmedSolHoA

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April 17, 2019

by Johnathon Gustin

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Zekarias Ezra

The failure of States is nothing new. But in the aftermath of a plethora of global terrorism, the consequences of state failure for the international order are potentially much more damaging than ever before. Consequently, the international system keeps a watchful eye on what is going on around the globe particularly on those nations that are deemed strategic given their size and location.

Sub-Saharan Africa – with over 750 million people – sliding deeper into all sorts of problems viz, poverty, terrorism, instability etc. is a major headache to the international community in terms of geo political stability in the region. And, Ethiopia,  with a population of over 100 million, undoubtedly hold huge strategic significance. So, naturally the international community, in general, and the West, in particular, give attention to Ethiopia. It is this writer considered opinion that the West cannot afford and thus won’t let Ethiopia slide into a full fledged ‘Failed State’. The stakes are high!

Ethiopia is not yet a “Failed State” but the prognosis is alarming drawing the close attention of the West.

How does a state failure happen?

Some nations fail spectacularly, with a total collapse of all state institutions, as in Afghanistan after the Soviet withdrawal or during the decade-long civil war in Sierra Leone, where the government ceased to exist altogether.

Most countries that fall apart, however, do so not with a bang but with a whimper. They fail not in an explosion of big war and violence but by being utterly unable to take advantage of their society’s huge potential for growth. Rather they use it for advancing some delusional idea –  re-writing history under the false pre-text of rectifying an alleged wrong done over a millennial ago. This type of slow, grinding failure leaves many countries in total collapse and condemn its people to a life time of abject poverty.

What’s tragic is that this failure is by design. These countries collapse because they are ruled by what social scientists call “extractive” economic institutions (I prefer to call them Mafia group such as EPRDF/TPLF/ODP), which destroy incentives, discourage innovation, and sap the talent of their citizens by creating a skewed playing field and robbing them of opportunities. These institutions are not in place by mistake but on purpose. They’re there for the benefit of the Mafia group who gain much from the extraction at the expense of society.

Ethiopia is a classic example of this. TPLF, just less than a year out before taking power, formed the Mafia group, EPRDF, along ethnic lines. After assuming power, TPLF oversaw the enactment of the worst constitution ever devised that formed semi-independent countries along ethnic and language lines. The rationale behind this evil design is to rule Ethiopia through surrogates and amass wealth until they can no longer rule in which case, they will ignite the fire that propels the disintegration of the country as originally designed.

In 2010, TPLF, was overthrown in a coup d’ etat successfully staged by OPDO’s Team Lemma. TPLF, Mafia group extraordinaire, is now hiding in Mekelle with its billions. The victor group, a protégé of TPLF, not much different in its constitution that its former Lord, basically follows the same ethnic politics – replacing the dominance of TPLF with that of OPDO. Its huge constituents, the Oromo youth, trained and instigated by fanatic and zealous activists as well as pseudo intellectuals and OLF, a quasi ‘fascist’  organization have created havoc in the country producing over 3 million internally displaced people. The smuggling of fire arms and money has become a daily news. Violence in almost every part of the country has become a common phenomenon.

It is these issues that Major Dawit has addressed exhaustively in his recent critical piece. He surmised that Ethiopia is on the verge of being a ‘Failed State’.

One of the most conspicuous indications of state failure is a breakdown in law and order and a related loss of personal security.  Unless one is blind to reality or swayed by sweet talk as to overlook glaring facts, Ethiopia fully meet this criterion of a ‘Failed State’.

Major Dawit must be commended calling a ‘spade a spade’. Many have started criticizing Major Dawit, not so much based on facts, but more as an attack on his personhood. Such attacks, however, would not change the facts one iota.

It is an established and irrefutable fact that in almost all cases state failures are associated with civil violence and the rise of warring nonstate groups flush with money. That is what has been taking place in Ethiopia since Dr Abiy assumed power. Ethnic violence, loss of lives, and displacement – too many to enumerate.

Dr Abiy began on an inspiring note last year but sadly he has miserably failed as a leader when it comes to the most and critical test of leadership – securing peace and stability. This fact cannot be glossed over by ad hominem attacks.

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Reshuffling his cabinet for the third time since coming to power a year ago, the reformist Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia today appointed new foreign affairs, defense and construction ministers.

This morning the Ethiopian Parliament has approved the appointment of three ministers. The current President of Oromia Region, Lemma Megersa, is appointed to serve as Defence Minister of Ethiopia, while Gedu Andargachew, the former President of Amhara Region has become Foreign Affairs Minister of Ethiopia.

Both Lemma and Gedu often mentioned as, Team Lemma, are reportedly played critical role in the reform that ended the 27 years plus domination of the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) within the ruling coalition the Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF).

While Lemma and Aisha have appeared to the Parliament to sworn in, Gedu Andargachew dint show up this morning. This morning the Parliament has also appointed the former head of Afar Region and current Defense Minister Aisha Mohammed to serve as Housing and Construction Minister of Ethiopia. Before approving the appointees few members of the parliament have raised their concerns about the frequent change of ministers.

Lemma born in Welega, Sire area, first degree in economics from Ethiopian Civil Service University and second degree from Addis Ababa University in International Relations. He was also studying his Peace and Security as PhD student at the Addis Ababa University before he was forced to dropout because of workload. He served as Oromia Police Commission Commissioner and Oromia Trade Bureau as well as Speaker of the Oromia Parliament, among others.

Shimelis Abdisa, Chief of Staff at the PM Office, is now appointed as Deputy President of Oromia Region. He will be serving as acting president for the region replacing Lemma Megersa.

Born in Wollo, Gedu Andargachew Alene, 50, has first degree in Education Administration from Ethiopian Civil Service University and second degree in organizational leadership. Among the positions he served in Amhara Region are, Amhara Information Bureau head, agriculture head and deputy head of Amhara Region.

After Workineh Gebeyehu took UN chief position in Nairobi Office about a month ago, Ethiopia’s foreign minister position has been run by the state ministers.

Born in Afar Region of Ethiopia, Aisha Mohammed Mussa, has first degree in Civil Engineering and master Degree in Transformational Leadership and Change. She was in charge of in Afar Region as head of disaster prevention and food security.

At federal level she has served as, Culture and Tourism Minister, Construction Minister and recently served as Defense Minister for less than a year after PM Abiy came to power. Currently she is also serving as chairwoman of Afar Democratic Party, which is one of the five affiliate parties of EPRDF.

NBE

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After a first year in office marked by sweeping changes, Abiy Ahmed, prime minister of Ethiopia, has seen his stock and influence rapidly grow. Poignantly, Abiy’s tribute on the list was penned by Feyisa Lilesa, the Ethiopian marathoner who famously protested against the former government at the 2016 Olympics. Lilesa, who was self-exiled until Abiy came into power last year, was just one of the many Ethiopians, including journalists and opposition figures, who have regained their freedom in a renewed Ethiopia. Abiy, 41, has also notably backed gender equality in government and has pushed to loosen the state’s stranglehold on the economy.

Abiy was one of the two African heads of state on the list. Cyril Ramaphosa, president of South Africa, was credited for his delicate balancing act of achieving private sector success and ongoing public service in politics. The nod for Ramaphosa comes with less than a month before he contests for re-election amid public pressure given high-profile problems like an ongoing electricity crisis.

Egypt’s Mo Salah, currently regarded as a global soccer icon alsomade the list after enjoying a rapid rise in stardom since joining English Premier League side Liverpool in 2017. Such has been Salah’s goal-scoring form that his boots were showcased among Egyptian artifacts at the British Museum. After a stellar personal first season in English soccer, Salah is now aiming for collective glory as Liverpool chase a first league title in nearly 30 years. Also important has been his positive image as a Muslim in a part of the world and a time in history when the Islamic faith is often under attack.

South Africa’s track and field Caster Semenya also got a recognitionespecially for her continued challenge of the International Association of Athletics Federations gender-related regulations. Semenya has dominated her sport since her emergence at the Berlin World Championships a decade ago but has also been subject of scrutiny and has become the poster athlete of the sport’s contention with pegging testosterone levels as a criteria for competing.

South Africa’s Caster Semenya and Egypt’s Mo Salah

Away from politics and sports, Ghanaian entrepreneur Fred Swaniker is also named for his pioneering work in remodeling African education through the African Leadership University (ALU). Swaniker’s overarching goal is to prepare the continent’s youth for a future which will see African countries become home to world’s largest working age population.

It’s a very ambitious target given the current high rates of unemployment and rapid population growth across the continent. So far however, Swaniker’s drive has proven a major pull for investors as ALU has been backed with over $80 million since being founded in 2015.

COURTESY ALU

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Ayele Addis Ambelu
March 2019

This story was produced in partnership with InfoNile and Code for Africa with support from the Pulitzer Center.

Abreham Bekele, 58, a resident of Meshenti village, close to Bahir Dar city, in Ethiopia’s Amhara region became a destitute after the land he and his eleven family members derived livelihoods from was acquired by an investor in 2008 to grow rose flowers.

“We were displaced without appropriate compensation,” recalls the visibly angry Abreham, and “now we are struggling to survive with no land, no food, no water.”

Abreham, now a causal laborer in Bahir Dar, earns less than 15 dollars per week that he spends fending for his family.

His story mirrors the lives of millions of Ethiopians that have lost their land to investors, targeting production of flowers and other nontraditional agricultural exports.

Ethiopia is the second largest flower exporter in Africa after Kenya, shipping flowers to the Middle East, France, Germany, Canada, Sweden, UK, and the Netherlands among other countries.

Data from Ethiopian Horticulture Producer Exporters Association (EHPEA), indicates that Ethiopia earned 300 million US Dollar from the sale of flowers and other horticulture products in 2017.  And during the last fiscal year, the horticulture industry generated up to 271 million US Dollar to Ethiopia, majorly through exports of flowers.

Zelalem Berhanie, the head of the national planning commission says Ethiopia targets to “earn half a billion dollars from the floral industry by the end of the second edition of the Growth and Transformation Plan.” The second Growth and Transformation Plan (2015/16-2019/20) GTPII is considered an important milestone towards realizing Ethiopia’s vision of becoming a lower middle income country by 2025.

But all is not well! As Ethiopia’s floral industry blossoms, every year, 3,000 people are displaced by investors that acquire land to establish flower farms according to reports from the Amhara National Regional State Disaster Prevention and Food Security Program Coordination Office.

The Land Matrix database, which compiles data on land grabs from governments, companies, NGOs, the media and citizen contributions, has tracked about 1.4 million hectares of land grabbed in Ethiopia in recent decades. 120 deals have been completed across the country, with 15 deals under negotiation, which would take up another 0.5 million hectares if completed.

Two thirds of the grabbed land in the country was allocated to international investors. Indian companies have acquired the most and largest swaths of land, especially biofuels production and large-scale agriculture, including flower farms. Companies from Saudi Arabia, USA, Italy, Malaysia, China, Austria, Israel, Turkey, Canada and Singapore are also big investors.

Just like Abreham,  Hiwote Yazie, 27, a resident of Zenezelma Village, close to Bahir Dar city, in Amhara region narrates that his community members have been reduced to, “immigrants on the land that once belonged to our ancestors.”

She says her community did not only lose land but also water bodies.  “We have natural water but we never drink it. Investors took it,” adds Hiwote.

Zenezelma village where Hiwote used to live is situated three km from river Nile and about 4.7 km from Lake Tana, the source of Blue Nile.

Ethiopia recently made available 6000 hectares of land for the use of horticulture in areas including Bahir Dar, on the lake side of Lake Tana and Blue Nile River side according to Amhara Investment commission.

Up to 10 biggest horticulture investments in Ethiopia are located close to Lake Tana and Blue Nile, covering 1,200 hectares on Tana lakeside, and another 2000 hectares on Blue Nile river side.  This is according to data from the Ethiopian Horticulture Producers and Exporters Association (EHPEA), which cites some of these companies to include Giovanni Alfano Farm, Condor Farms PLC, Fontana Horticulture PLC, Pina Flowers PLC, Arini Flowers PLC, Solo Agro Tech PLC, Tal Flowers PLC, and Joy techfresh PLC among others.

It is evidently clear that these companies target not just the fertile land in this region but the water of the two water bodies.

Asrat Tsehay, the head of the Ethiopian Blue Nile River basin Authority says compared to the residents, floral investments in the area consuming more water.

“While in the dry north of Ethiopia people have to survive on five liters of water per person per week and livestock die in masses,” argues Asrat, “roses (there) consume an average of seven liters of water per stem per week.”

Adem worku, the head of public relation department at Amhara National Regional State Water, Irrigation and Energy Development Bureau, feels this is slowly, “draining water  bodies in the region.”

Production of flowers in this region requires around, “20,000 Olympic swimming pools full of water each year,” says Meselech Zelalem, a water scientist with Amhara national regional state Water, Irrigation and Energy Development Bureau. This is water dawned from Lake Tana and Blue Nile river.

Dr Mesay Abebe an expert and analyst in Ethiopia’s floral sector, blames the floriculture industry for, “severe use of natural resources.”

“This,” maintains Dr Mesay, “is resulting into soil, water and air pollution due to, inappropriate use of fertilizers and pesticides and poor waste disposal system.”

Due to its excessive richness of nutrients, narrates Dr. Mesay, such contaminated water easily leads to dense growth of plant life in water bodies. Several studies and news stories show that Lake Tana, is being lost to the invasive water hyacinth.

Besides, flower farms have been criticized for using fertilizers and pesticides which can easily be washed into the neighboring Blue Nile river and Lake Tana.  Tadele Yeshiwas Tizazu, the agriculture and environmental sciences researcher says such chemicals easily, “leach into the groundwater.”

As cut flowers are prepared for market, a lot of wastes such as leaves containing chemical residues are produced. If not well disposed of such residues could lead to health problems in people and livestock as well.

For example, Shega Belay, one of the local farmers says his community does not only face, “reduced land for farming but also deaths of livestock after ingesting pesticides.”

“We complain to regional government officials but, nothing has been done. The government benefits from taxes as we suffer,” laments Shega.

Ethiopian Horticulture Development Agency (EHDA) is the government agency dedicated to supporting the horticulture sector in Ethiopia, which incorporates flowers, fruits and vegetables and the herbs sectors.

Alem Weldegerima, the Director General of this agency says the floral sector in Ethiopia developed around the small private sector initiative which was focused on, “exploiting the soil, water, ecological and market-proximity opportunities that Ethiopia offers to flower growers.”

Solomon Worku, the Nile Water for Nile people initiative activist says most foreign horticulture investors that acquired land for agriculture in the source of Blue Nile region, displacing several local people, did not help them live descent lives.

“They took large tracts of land and resources in the name of development which we haven’t seen,” contends Solomon.

Some of these farms have been accused of failure to use their allocated land solely for the intended purposes.

Alem Weldegerima, the EHDA Director General acknowledges the fact that some investors have not exhaustively used their given land.

He reveals that his agency has issued a warning letter to some 25 growers over this issue.

Land grabbing victims speak out

Amelework Yazi, 28, a resident of Bezawit village in Bahir Dar, accuses government of favoring foreign investors and neglecting the local communities.

“The doors are locked for the local hopeful youths, but open for foreigners,” says Amelework.

Aster Tesema, the chairperson of the local traditional farmers association in Zegeie village says, although most employees of floral companies in his village work hard, “they earn a peanut” that can “hardly sustain them while investors generate millions of dollars annually.”

Critics of the foreign horticulture companies in Ethiopia have repeatedly said that while such companies are getting richer, the local Ethiopians are hardly making any progress.

Yordanoes Mandefero, 33, from Zegie Village works with one of the foreign horticulture companies in the area.  Yordanoes asked us not to disclose the company where he works, fearing that his bosses could sack him for talking to us. He reveals that most Ethiopians in the company where he works earn about, “30 euros a month.”

Investors and local government respond to accusation

Sami Banchu the representative of Giovanni Alfano Farm says, “they are working with local communities, helping them through construction of schools and hospitals to stimulate development.”

Likewise in a rewritten response, Mohammed Mohayub, of Yemeni farm, adds that, “everything they do is in accordance with the standard requirements.”

“The use of pesticides is the same as what is permitted in Europe. We have fair trade certification,” says Mohammed.

Yehenew Belay, the head of investment office for the Amhara regional state acknowledges the fact that most farmers in the area have been displaced by horticulture investment in the last 10 years.

He blames this on the “government policy” that targets “attracting foreign investors at the expense of the host communities”.

Toward a workable solution

A range of studies including a 2008 report by the Forum for Environment, an Ethiopian environmental advocacy NGO, and a 2016 report by Ethiopian researcher Asnake Demena, have cautioned widespread negative effects of land grabs on the local communities in Ethiopia that were originally living on the land, including evictions and loss of access to natural resources that support their livelihoods. Arable lands, virgin forests and woodlands have also been cleared and allocated for biofuel projects, which destroys the natural ecology, the reports found.

Dr Mesay Abebe, an expert and analyst in Ethiopia’s floral sector suggests that the government of Ethiopia should investigate these evictions and displacements and ensure that farmers are resettled and compensate in a manner that respects the rights of residents and adhere to Ethiopian law.

He adds that a sustainable solution lies in the government of Ethiopian teaming up with the Horticulture Producers and Exporters Association (EHPEA) to formulated clear regulations that call for sustainable extraction of water from water bodies in this region for farming of flowers.

“All flower farms in the region should be forced to use drip irrigation system which helps to conserve water resources,” concludes Dr. Mesay.

 Additional reporting and editing by Fredrick Mugira

For data visualizations please see the links below. You can also find the embedded codes below.

…………………….

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Contact
AmelgaLLC@gmail.com
Wednesday, April 20, 2019

ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA  — Amelga, LLC announces Ermyas Amelga’s debut book Ethiopia: Tipping Point, available worldwide at Amazon.com.

“Ethiopia is at a critical juncture in terms of where it is heading as a political entity, an economy, and a people. The risks and the stakes have never been higher and may even rise to the level of existentialism.” – Ermyas Amelga

Written from a jail cell in Ethiopia, Ethiopia: Tipping Point, examines the current economic state of the nation and offers a glimpse into the mind of its author, Ermyas Amelga.

About the Author

Ermyas Amelga is an Ethiopian economist and entrepreneur. Ermyas was born in Ethiopia and left the country in the 1970s, to pursue his education in the United States.

During his time in the States, Ermyas earned an M.B.A. degree in Finance from Boston University, an M.A. degree in International Economics from Boston University, Graduate School of Economics, and a B.A. degree in Economics and Political Science from Amherst College in 1980. He spent 12 years as an investment banker in the United States before he returned to Ethiopia in 1996, where he went on to open a myriad of companies including Highland Springs Mineral Water, Zemen Bank, and Access Real Estate.

Ethiopia: Tipping Point is available on Kindle on Amazon.com

Connect

Website: ErmyasAmelga.com

Twitter: @ErmyasAmelga

Facebook: @ErmyasAmelga

Instagram: @ErmyasAmelga

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By Bekele Gessesse (Dr.)

Preamble:

The most important responsibilities of caring Governments is to ensure the provision of vital public services such as health care, education, energy, water and public transport. Our current government is on a transition.   Opposition political parties have not yet discussed their ideologies and visions for the Country. They are all yet to inform us of their manifestos. The recent history of our Country reveals that we have passed through feudalism (although not fully), and totalitarianism, in the name of either socialism or democracy. The ruling Party appears to be promoting the capitalist system. It is entitled to choose whatever political system it wishes to adopt. However, it is very important to understand the fact that a whole-sale privatisation of public utilities and services is neither the norm of all capitalist countries (‘Western Democracies’) nor a panacea for addressing the need for provision of those vital services. There are lots of things we need to learn from countries such as the United Kingdom and most Scandinavian Countries. In the United Kingdom, for instance, political parties such as Labour take it as a tradition and obligation to maintain the provision of most of those vital services in the hands of the State (i.e. the Public Sector), citing the devastating effects of most privatised utilities by the Conservative Party whose private owners and their shareholders take profitability as the priority rather than public interest. In developing countries such as Ethiopia, we need to be extremely careful when we make vital decisions that affect the lives of the citizens. There are thousands of places and potentials for the private sector, starting from petty trades and cottage industries to large companies. The major concerns expressed in this small paper are the vital services that affect the survival and wellbeing of the population. The particular case in hand is the future of the Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation (formerly the Ethiopian Electric Light and Power Authority, ELPA that was formed in 1956) and the Ethiopian Airlines, among others. I would like to encourage all parties to refrain from making hasty decisions and facilitate open public discussion on such fundamental issues, especially at the current transition period.

1. Nationalisation of vital public services and their implications

The main purpose of governments is to collect revenue and provide services. Under such systems, the prime objective is the security of supply of services such as energy, (e.g. electric), water, health care and education. Where it involves payments (such as energy bills), the state ensures that the costs are affordable. Corruption of government officials should not be taken as a justification to discredit the role of the public sector in favour of the private sector. It is true that there have been a number of reports on gross embezzlement of the public resources (tax revenues, foreign aid and loans) that made few individuals millionaires and even billionaires over night at the cost of the population that has been subjected to starvation, death, exile and misery.

Since its establishment in 1956, the Ethiopian Electric Light and Power Authority – famously known as ELPA (currently EEPCO) – has been providing invaluable services. Recently, however, the supply of electric power to the population is reported to be absolutely inadequate and inefficient. So is the supply of water. A Country that is endowed with immense water sources should not fail to supply this to the population. Big buildings have been constructed. The population is increasing from time to time.  Public resources have to be utilised in effective and efficient manners to overcome those unnecessary shortages.

The Ethiopian Airlines is another service in question. Is it true that there is an intention to sell also to a private sector? I just cannot believe it. It was founded in 1945. It provided invaluable local and international services. It is one of the best airlines in the world, in terms of area coverage and quality services. It remained a national pride. Sale of those national treasures amounts to penalising success and betrayal of responsibility. I beg you to stop it.

2. Privatisation of vital public services and their implications

There is a big danger where provision of vital public services is sold to the private sector whose motives are profit maximisation. Typical examples even in developed nations such as the United Kingdom are the most serious negative impacts of privatised sectors under the current Conservative Government. It is reported that one in ten people are living in what they call fuel poverty. Similar problems are reported from other privatised sections such as transport, health care and education. We need to learn from such experiences.

As mentioned above, the subject matter of this paper is the vital public services that affect day to day lives and wellbeing. In other areas, however, existing huge potentials need to be exhausted to encourage and support the private sector in such areas as food production, cash crops, small scale irrigation schemes, revolving fund for women and cooperatives, self employment, transport, manufacturing, mining, catering and tourism industries.

3. Public-Private Partnership (e.g. giving long leases in the UK, Australia and Canada

There are also some good opportunities to develop public-private partnership to deliver certain facilities and services that can satisfy both partners without jeopardising the public interest, but to work in a complementary manner. Such systems allow the public sector to give the private sector a lease period during which the desired additional services are provided, especially in the areas of irrigation schemes, mining, construction of homes, roads and railways and supplies.

Here again, there should be close government regulations and follow up, to ensure adherence to signed agreements in terms of the quality, efficiency and cost of the expected services.

Conclusion:

Following capitalism does not necessarily mean that public services and assets should be privatised. Experience in the western democracies reveals the fact that governments are responsible for provision of most public services. There are many cases where privatising vital services has affected qualities and affordability even here in the western world.

Based on my international working experience, especially in the developing countries in Africa, Asia and the South Pacific, the private sector engaged in mining, logging, production of cash crops, etc. have inflicted irreversible damages, in many places, in terms of uncontrolled toxic chemicals (that affect land, rivers and the food chain), land degradation, desertification and climate change. This is obviously because most of those private companies, especially foreign, are interested in the short term maximisation of their profits without due care for the local communities and the environment they live in. It would therefore be the responsibility of governments to ensure the undertakings of environmental and social impact assessments before the beginning of development projects, followed by effective monitoring and evaluation exercises, to ensure that progresses are being made towards achievement of the desired objectives.

What is most needed is for the public sector to improve accountability, transparency and efficiency of the provision and management of assets and public services. Currently our Country is undergoing a transition. Corruption has affected our people so badly. The way out in this journey is the development of a genuine accountable, responsible and transparent democratic system where no one can get away with the crimes of embezzlement, nepotism and similar crimes and ensure that the citizens receive the vital services they deserve.

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The revenue authority of Ethiopia says it has collected 145 billion birr ($5 billion) during the first nine months of Ethiopian fiscal year started July 8, 2018.

This is indicated at a panel discussion the Ministry of Revenue of Ethiopia has organized on Friday. The Ministry has met 80 percent of its target for the period. The money the Ministry has collected in nine months is almost equal to what it collected in 12 months of last fiscal year.

The tax collection of the country has improved following the recent reform and restructuring of tax collection authorities. As a result, the Ministry has been compacting illegal trade and tax frauds, which generated billions of birr over the past few months. At the end of this year the Ministry plans to collect 213 billion birr tax (around $7.5 billion). Reports also suggest that the recent national tax awareness campaign by the Ministry has also been contributing to Ethiopia’s tax income increment.

Ethiopia’s tax collection increased from Birr 12.4 billion in 2005 to Birr 165.3 billion in 2015 indicating over thirteen fold increase in the decade, according to the 2017 study by the UN Development Program, entitled Performance and Prospects of Tax Collection in Ethiopia.

The report stated that the share of domestic revenue in the total public revenue increased from 77 percent to 94 percent in the same period, and the share of tax revenue stands at 83 percent in 2015.

It says however, there is a challenge increasing the tax revenue proportionate GDP; the tax to GDP ratio remained low at 13.4 percent in 2015 which is way below the Sub Saharan Average of about 18 percent, over 20percent for emerging economies and above 30percent for developed economies.

In 2005 Ethiopia’s tax to GDP ratio was 12.5 percent after a decade of robust and strong economic growth this ratio came to 13.4 percent posting very little progress.

The report 

NBE

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By Alemayehu G. Mariam

Last week, two important announcements were made attesting the fact that Ethiopia is a rising bright star in the world.

In the Washington Post-Reporters Without Borders open forum, Ethiopia was described as the “brightest light in the world for press freedom after Tunisia.”

Reporters Without Borders is one of the foremost organizations defending press freedom globally.

The Washington Post tweeted, “Ethiopia jumped 40 spots on this year’s Index, an accomplishment that is credited to the work of the newly elected prime minister…”

The icing on the cake: The main celebration of the prestigious UNESCO World Press Freedom Day 2019 will be held in Ethiopia on May 1-3. One hundred smaller events will be held throughout the world.

Days before the Washington Post-Reporters Without Borders announcement, H.E. Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed was named Time Magazine’s “2019 100 Most Influential People in the World” list.

Those who make Time’s 100 are “recognized for changing the world, regardless of the consequences of their actions.”

PM Abiy changed the world for the better and Ethiopia for the best.

In June 2013, I prophesied, “Ethiopia’s Cheetahs (young people) will rise and shine and soar to new heights. They will lift up and carry Ethiopia on their wings.”

Behold Abiy Ahmed in April 2019!

He is soaring the heights carrying Ethiopia with him as the wingless turkeys cluck and cackle hate and jealously down below.

But since 2013, I have been prophesying “Ethiopia Shall Rise!”

The prophets of doom and gloom today prophesy Ethiopia shall be a failed state.

On May 27, 2018, I told PM Abiy publicly, “Ethiopia Shall Rise!”

In prophetic language, I rhetorically asked PM Abiy and answered my own question:

Are we witnessing the glorious rise of a failed Ethiopia?

We are today witnessing an Ethiopia rising. Behold, Ityopia’s Tinsae. My cup runneth over just thinking about it.

Behold an Ethiopia rising, higher and higher!

I told PM Abiy what else is going to happen:

Ethiopia shall rise like the morning sun and the full moon at midnight.

Ethiopia shall rise up and shake off the sooty dust of dictatorship that covers her.

Ethiopia shall rise again and brightly shine like a precious gem.

Ethiopia shall rise above sectarianism and communalism.

Ethiopia shall rise from the depths of doubt to the heights of faith.

Ethiopia shall rise and stretch out her arms to God and embrace all her children.

When Africa was under colonialism, Ethiopia was the beacon to the sun light of freedom for Africa.

Today, Ethiopia is rising as a shining example of freedom, human rights and democracy on the African continent.

Then there are those blinded by hate and jealousy who wish Ethiopia nothing but failure, collapse and downfall

The Good Book talks about “Lead[ing] out those who have eyes but are blind, who have ears but are deaf.”

There are villains who chose to walk on the Dark Side and wish Ethiopia failure, collapse and downfall.

They say, “Ethiopia is a failed state.”

They say, “It is Apocalypse Now in Ethiopia.”

They say, “Ethiopia is going to hell in a hand basket.”

They say, “Only we can save Ethiopia from itself.”

They prophesy the three “D”s. Doom, death and destruction in Ethiopia.

But why?

Are they so blinded by hate and jealousy they cannot see Ethiopia rising and shining?

Have their hearts turned to stone to feel the ecstasy of an Ethiopia rising?

Have their mind seized and stopped working infected by blind ambition, greed and narcissism?

How can they dream of war and destruction when peace and harmony shine brightly over the horizon?

For crying out loud, are they sentient beings or just humanoids who appear human without actually being one?

Why do some people put their personal interest above their people and country?

Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men and women?

Still the wolf pack howls and daylight hyenas cackle   

On April 29, 2018, barely a month into office, I advised those who opposed PM Abiy, “Ask Not What Abiy Ahmed Can Do for Ethiopia, Ask What You Can Do for Your Ethiopia!”

Here are a few excerpts from April 2018:

There are those clamoring for PM Abiy Ahmed to do everything under the sun in less than 30 days.

(Apparently, he did better than I expected. In December 2018, BBC wrote, “Abiy Ahmed has been doing the seemingly impossible ever since he unexpectedly became prime minister of Ethiopia in April and has done the “equivalent of making the sun rise from the west.”)

It is obvious that what he can possibly ever do will not be finished in 100 or 1000 days or in the lifetime of any Ethiopian alive today or at any time on this planet. But PM Abiy has made a great start.

PM Abiy’s trolls are coming out of the woodwork to spin their tales of defeatism and cynicism. “Oh! He will definitely fail. They will not allow him to work. They will keep on a tight leash. They have him surrounded by the old guard in his cabinet. He talks a good talk, but he has not done anything.”

(In April 2019, the prophets of doom and gloom declare, “Ethiopia is a failed state. Call out the army to get rid of Abiy Ahmed in a coup. d’etat.”)

In the past nearly 13 years when I was in the trenches every day and every week speaking, preaching and lecturing truth to Meles Zenawi and the TPLF, I rarely saw the wolf packs that are hounding PM Abiy today standing with me and howling truth at the TPLF.

They were either coming out to do a hit and run once every so often or writing in pen names and hiding in the anonymity of cyberspace because they did not have the courage to stand up and be counted.

Now they are slithering out of their underground lairs to preach their gospel of pessimism and negativism.

(In 2019, the wolf packs and cackling hyenas still come out once in a while to do a hit and run on Abiy Ahmed. They should know that they could hit and run, but they can’t hide. There will be those standing in the shadow watching.)

Now, the wolf pack is unleashing and howling lies-as-truth at PM Abiy and demanding not only that he walk on water in less than 30 days but also soar in the sky without wings.

Now, the Johnny-come-latelys (ye dil atbiya arbegnoch) are ganging up on a young man whose philosophy is Ethiopiawinet and preaches peace, truth and reconciliation.

I don’t want to be misunderstood.

I would not mind if they criticize PM Abiy by coming up with their plan to solve any of the myriad problems faced by Ethiopians.

I would cheer them on and stand on their side if they were to deliver a comprehensive economic plan to PM Abiy. Or a plan for a comprehensive constitutional revision. Or a plan to deal with the shortage in hard currency, attracting foreign direct investment, dealing with the dire food shortage throughout the country and…

(In 2019, they declare, “During his one-year premiership the country’s situation has gone down from bad to worse with a serious possibility of a civil war.”)

The deceitful windbags are incapable of putting their ideas to paper… It is becoming increasingly clear that they will continue to scandalize and delegitimize PM Abiy regardless of what he does or does not do.

Two simple facts seem obvious to me from what PM Abiy’s trolls are doing.

First, they are scared to death he will indeed succeed and bring a measure of peace, reconciliation and hope to Ethiopia.

Second, they believe if PM Abiy succeeds, they are doomed to fail. Their ambition for power, fame, fortune and glory goes up in smoke.

What I am seeing and hearing today are modern day self-appointed Emperor Neros trying to burn down Ethiopia as PM Abiy Ahmed is toiling and crisscrossing the country as a Fire Chief with millions of young firemen behind him. As soon as he quells one fire, the pyromaniacs will set another one…

I must say, I pegged the doomers and gloomers spot on in April 2018.

Two types of Ethiopians: Let me speak my truth!

I believe there are two types of Ethiopians today.

There are those who believe the Ethiopia glass is half empty — those who have lost power, lost status, lost access, lost hope, lost their dreams of being political leaders — who have failed in their lives and can only see a failed Ethiopian nation and state.

Then there are those who believe the Ethiopia glass is half full and can be made full to the brim and boldly march on — hell or high water — guided by the principle Ethiopia’s best days are yet to come.

Put another way, there are those who see Ethiopia and see a nation of losers, and those who see a nation of winners.

Those who see Ethiopia as a nation of losers are themselves losers who think they can get recognition and acceptance by carping, complaining, moaning and groaning.

Those who see Ethiopia as a nation of winners put their shoulders to the wheel and noses to the grindstone and keep on plugging away.

Losers always expect failure because that’s their life experience.

Winners have a can-do attitude, a burning desire, a clear vision and a dream that tomorrow will be better than today and yesterday.

Losers have only blind ambition. That’s why they always stumble, fail and fall.

In the end, it is a contest between losers and winners.

Ethiopia’s destiny hangs in the balance between losers who look at things the way they are and ask why and winners who dream of things that never were, and ask why not?

In July 2012, I wrote about my dream of an Ethiopia at peace.

But on January 4, 2015, I laid out all my dreams about things that never were — 18 of them and counting — in my commentary, “Ethiopian Dreams for 2015 and Beyond”.

Abiy Ahmed and I dream of such things that never were and ask, “WHY NOT?!”

Ask not what Abiy Ahmed can do for Ethiopia, ask what you can do for your Ethiopia

Is PM Abiy the only man responsible for solving Ethiopia’s problems dating back generations in less than 30 days, 365 days?

Is he the only one who has all the answers?

Is he the messiah who will bring salvation to Ethiopia?

President John F. Kennedy in his 1961 inaugural address proclaimed,

Let the word go forth from this time and place, to friend and foe alike, that the torch has been passed to a new generation of Americans who… are unwilling to witness or permit the slow undoing of those human rights to which this Nation has always been committed, and to which we are committed today at home and around the world.

He urged, “In your hands, my fellow citizens, more than in mine, will rest the final success or failure of our course.” 

He then posed the question that ricochets through time, “And so, my fellow Americans: ask not what your country can do for you — ask what you can do for your country.”

Today, I pose the same questions to my fellow Ethiopians: Ask not what Abiy Ahmed can do for Ethiopia, ask what you can do for your Ethiopia!

After 13 years of relentless struggle for human rights, democracy and the rule of law in Ethiopia, I am convinced more than ever that the torch has been passed to a new generation of Ethiopians (Cheetah Generation) who are unwilling to witness or permit flagrant violations of human rights in Ethiopia. 

That Cheetah Generation is PM Abiy’s, not my Hippo (older) generation.

Ethiopia’s fate and destiny hangs in the balance of the success and failure of Ethiopia’s Cheetah Generation.

Everything else is the ineluctable white noise of the paranoid, inane and vacuous.

Hear!  Hear!

I will do whatever I can to make sure PM Abiy’s generation succeeds because state failure, political failure, economic failure and social failure are not options for Ethiopia!

Ask what you can do for your Ethiopia because Abiy Ahmed has done more than his fair share for Ethiopia!

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Thirty-seven primary school students at the outskirt of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, collapsed on Thursday hospitalized, says ruling party media.

Out of the fainted 37 students of General Waqo Gutu Primary School in Oromia, who are taken to Bethel Hospital, 34 are in better condition. While the remaining are being treated in the hospital, according to FanaBC report.

What makes the children fainted was not known so far, according to the report, which indicated that the hospital is screening blood samples of the students to investigate out what caused the collapse.

Meanwhile, previous reports show that in Ethiopia including the capital, Addis Ababa, many students faint because of lack of Lack of sufficient food and starvation, which forced the government, aid agencies such as, Worlld Food Programme and some companies like Ethiopian Airlines to launch school feeding program over the past few years.

The school is named after General Waqo Gutu Usu (1924 – February 3, 2006) who was an Oromo rebel figure and leader of one of the earlier Oromo separatist movements. He reportedly led the Bale Revolt, which in the 1960s had fought against the feudalistic system in place in the Ethiopian Empire, according to Wikipedia.

General Waqo was elected chairman of the United Liberation Forces of Oromia in 2000. In 2006, General Waqo died in a Nairobi hospital, survived by 20 sons and 17 daughters.

NBE

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ADDIS ABABA, Ethi­o­pia — From a collection of modest offices in a half-empty high rise, one of Ethiopia’s most prominent journalists publishes his weekly paper with a staff of just four.

The country has imprisoned U.S.-educated Eskinder Nega multiple times, most recently for six years. But under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government, he and some dozen other jailed journalists have been released and are free to write.

His new weekly Ethiopis takes a strident tone, especially against the city administration and activists from Ethiopia’s Oromo ethnic group, newly empowered by their fellow Oromo, Abiy. He sees his paper and his activism as part of his long struggle for democracy. Others see it as a danger to Ethiopia’s delicate political state and as part of a wave of news outlets that are taking sides and worsening tensions in the country’s many conflicts.

“Who’s to say what is extreme?” Eskinder said from his tiny office, adorned with portraits of the Virgin Mary and an Ethio­pian emperor known for uniting the country. “Do we have a consensus on what extreme is?”

After becoming prime minister a year ago, Abiy embarked on reforms that brought home exiled politicians and armed opposition groups, freed political prisoners, made peace with Eritrea and opened up a heavily restricted media sector.

Ethiopia has been a rare bright spot of increased rights and democracy on a continent more known for leaders overstaying their mandates. Its progress in media freedom — there are no longer any imprisoned journalists — has been so dramatic that it was chosen to host World Press Freedom Day next month.

The changes have also prompted conflicts and unearthed long-buried grievances, often revolving around land and ethnicity. To many, a newly polarized press is making things worse.

“It’s a familiar story to what we’ve seen in other countries undergoing a rapid and messy democratization, and it will require a massive effort to ensure that high-quality journalism and civic dialogue prevails without compromising freedom of expression,” said Nicholas Benequista of the Washington-based Center for International Media Assistance.

In the 2019 World Press Freedom Index compiled by Reporters Without Borders, Ethi­o­pia rose 40 places, from 150 out of 180 countries to 110 — the biggest improvement this year in any country.

Journalist Eskinder Nega, who has been jailed several times, in the offices of Ethiopis, his weekly newspaper. (Paul Schemm/The Washington Post)

Next year, Ethi­o­pia will hold its first free elections in 15 years, and there are fears that the toxic media environment could lead to violence.

“This opening up is sort of an ultimate test for us, and we are failing it, I’m afraid,” said Tsedale Lemma, editor of the English-language Addis Standard. “That is damaging, not just to the industry, not just media, but to the social cohesion in a country that’s deeply polarized, ethnicized and going through a fragile moment of transition.”

She said the extreme views that had long proliferated on social media, especially among Ethiopians living abroad, are being reflected in the news media.

In a recent issue of Eskinder’s weekly Ethiopis, a front-page article accused Oromo politician Bekele Gerba, also recently freed from prison, of promoting ethnic cleansing because of a speech he made encouraging the use of the Oromo language.

The article compared young Oromo activists to perpetrators of the Rwandan genocide, suggesting that Oromos could carry out similar atrocities. While there have been outbreaks of ethnic-related violence and displacement recently in the country, there has been nothing on the level of what happened in Rwanda 25 years ago.

Other articles in Ethiopis accuse the city government of giving ID cards only to people of the Oromo ethnicity or evicting only non-Oromos from their homes — charges repeatedly denied by municipal authorities.

The cover of a recent issue of Habesha Weg, another weekly, claimed that Oromo activist Jawar Mohammed had encouraged Oromos to launch a “Islamist militant war” against the rest of the country. There is no evidence that he has done so.

“I think you could argue that part of this is inevitable, people were not free to openly express themselves for many years, now they are and it’s this cathartic release of anger and frustration,” said Felix Horne, senior researcher on Ethiopia for Human Rights Watch. “And in many cases that release is happening in a complete security void, there’s no limits in what people are able to say, so that’s a big problem.”

A man looks at newspapers in Addis Ababa. To many Ethiopians, the polarized, newly empowered press poses a danger to a fragile democracy. (Paul Schemm/The Washington Post)

The prime minister himself has expressed a degree of frustration over the press freedoms that he has allowed, noting once that everyone in the country seemed to be an activist rather than a worker in a profession.

Billene Seyoum, the prime minister’s spokeswoman, said in response to emailed questions that “the government remains committed to opening up of the media space as part of its democratization process.”

The government has also announced plans to professionalize the state media, which under previous regimes was a propaganda organ trumpeting the government’s achievements.

So far, though, the official media has largely continued to reflect the government’s views. In the case of the Oromo regional broadcaster, Oromia Broadcasting Network, efforts to make it more independent ran into opposition from local politicians.

Mohammed Ademo, who worked as a journalist in the United States, accepted a job with the broadcaster with a mandate to turn it into something like NPR.

A few months later, however, he was pushed out.

“There were people who felt we were bringing about these changes too fast, and they also felt they couldn’t take full advantage of having a regional broadcaster,” he said, expressing doubt about the commitment to restructure the state media. According to the broadcaster, Mohammed was offered a better position at the Foreign Ministry.

Stemming the tide of hate in the media while not restricting it is one of the government’s big challenges. There are two laws being drafted: one to regulate media and the other to combat fake news and hate speech.

The latter has set off alarm bells, with many worrying that an overly stringent hate-speech law might be used to curb the nascent press. Billene said the government is aware of those concerns.

“In defining what constitutes hateful speech, the law would ensure that the definition is precise, clear and narrow to ensure that it does not burden freedoms of speech,” she said, adding that it was also up to the people to become more discerning and hold media “accountable to higher standards of reporting.”

That might be slowly happening. As opposition media outlets have returned to the country after fleeing it under the previous regime, their reporting has in some cases mellowed, said Zecharias Zelalem, an Ethiopian journalist and commentator based in Canada.

“Ethiopians will start to demand more from their media outlets. The ones that we have currently are going to have to change their approach, are going to have to be less focused on propaganda, rebuttals and vitriol, and they are going to have to up their game,” he said. “They will have to cater to an audience that shares the same taxis as them, that shares the same sidewalks as them, that walks the same streets as them.”

Ethiopians read newspapers in Addis Ababa. Zecharias Zelalem, an Ethiopian journalist and commentator, said people are going to start demanding that news outlets “up their game.” (Paul Schemm/The Washington Post)

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