PRESS RELEASE

The new opposition party ETRP established in 2017 by former Kinijit officials says the Ethiopian federal system must change.]

ETRP Press Release 

While the ETRP applauds recent symbolic measures taken by the new Ethiopian Prime Minister, systematic changes must occur for the country to secure long-term stability. In addition to repealing the CSP, FMMAIP and ATP restrictive laws, Dr. Abiy must make personal changes inside key institutions. 

Dr. Abiy Ahmed must be highly commended for his ongoing efforts to solve the deep problems of a diverse nation of over 100 million citizens. Unlike his EPRDF predecessors, Dr. Abiy has become a unifier; by preaching Ethiopiawinet. From releasing thousands of prisoners to repealing the State of Emergency, Dr. Abiy deserves credit for beginning the healing process domestically. 

However, his administration must not rush or simplify the complex issues, like the TPLF military monopoly and the human rights crisis. Simply reshuffling the civilian Defense Ministry leadership is not real reform. Real military reform is diversifying the top leadership of the military; from the army generals, to commanders, pilots and special forces. 

Similarly, Dr. Abiy recently announced reforms within the Ethiopian Human Right Commission (EHRC) but he did not make any leadership changes. In fact, Dr. Abiy did not even fire the chairman Addisu Gebregziabher, who was the infamous TPLF spokesman working inside both the corrupt NEBE and fraudulent EHRC during the 2015 rigged election and overseeing the nationwide massacres of the last few years. 

Both NEBE and EHRC must be administered by independent and non-political professionals.

Real reforms will require massive personal changes in every federal institution. 

In addition, reforms will never succeed long-term unless systematic changes are made to the foundation of Ethiopia’s political problems. Two of the major systematic issues facing Ethiopia today are the dangerous implementation of “group rights” at the expense of “individual rights” and the ethnic-based narrow federal structure. The root cause of endless ethic based crimes (including the killing and eviction of Oromos in Somali region or Amharas in other regions) is due to ethnic federalism; in which Ethiopians are being divided with “‘natives’ vs ‘aliens’” labels as well as where “group rights” continue to violate individual rights. 

Human rights will never be respected in Ethiopia until ethnic federalism is scrapped and until every human being is seen as an individual worth living. 

Ethnic-federalism (EF) is the foundation of the rise in tribal based conflicts nationwide. The EF concept itself has manifested itself in two ways. In the southern (Debub) region, EF exists in name only since its application became impractical and thus completely abandoned. In the rest of the country, EF has been half-way (ex. 420 kebeles still disputed between Oromia & Somali) applied by the demarcation of ethnic-based borders between Oromia, Somali, Amhara, Afar and Tigray states. However, ethnic border demarcation has not meant self-rule or leadership demarcation since TPLF has effectively ruled every ethnic state since 1991. In both cases, Ethnic federalism has miserably failed and it has created dormant volcanos by giving “false hope” of unrealistic ethnic states. 

Now is the time to heal the past wounds of this great nation and secure the individual human rights of every single Ethiopian. Repealing institutional Ethnic-Federalism does not mean we all practice one culture or one language; but it will mean appreciating unity in diversity while respecting the human rights of the individual. We must finally change the federal structure of Ethiopia to disincentivize the ethnic politics and mob mentality that has led to endless ethnic conflicts and brutal cleansings through out the country. 

Human rights will be universally protected in Ethiopia only when it is guaranteed in its smallest form: the individual human being. 

Like the millions of other mixed-Ethiopians, Prime Minister Dr Abiy is the son of Oromo father and Amhara mother. Dr. Abiy must use his inspiring personal story and utilize his moral authority to end the 17 years of nightmare and tribal division in Ethiopia. If Dr. Abiy wants Ethiopia to join the free nations of the 21st century world, he must allow the restructuring of the Ethiopian state away from ethnic-federalism. 

_______________________

The Ethiopian Republican Party (ETRP) is a new populist movement supporting economic liberalism and micro federalism. 

An investment in knowledge pays the best interest B. Franklin.

Mikael Wossen, PhD.

INTRODUCTION

The rigidly segregated education systems throughout Ethiopia are in disarray. School leaving exams are stolen, higher education students are abandoning their campuses in growing numbers and educators are losing legitimacy. False educational credentials are being exposed. In short, the standard of education has plummeted, as cadre-led, ethnocentric schools have become normalized by the TPLF and its military command post. As a firm believer in the lifelong benefits of public education, the squalid public education system currently in place across the country and especially in the so called “Amhara” region of Ethiopia is of concern to me.

Since his inaugural speech, Dr. Abiy Ahmed has been an outspoken supporter of education reform. He has been emphasizing that education will be one of his administration’s signature focus and is planning to send high performing university graduates to ivy league institutions around the world to pursue their education. This is well and good, but it amounts to putting the proverbial horse before the cart. Firstly, the education system in Ethiopia needs to be qualitatively improved and opportunities equalized between regions at least in the public school sector, and reforms must be launched from the bottom up. Stated otherwise, the existing national education system must be first evaluated and duly calibrated in light of the available international standards, data and in line with the philosophical commitments expressed by the Prime Minister. It is uplifting to see the chief policy enforcer in the country focusing on long overdue education reform.

Unequal Education

Educational opportunities are determined primarily by ethnicity in today’s ‘killilized’ Ethiopia. Educators of the so called ‘Amhara regional state’ or Bantustan of Ethiopia have been particularly vociferous and pointed in their critique of the TPLF’s ‘Boerish’ educational allegations of ‘deeper Tehadiso’ in the educational sphere.’ Boerish’ also in the sense that the Ethiopian education systems policies resemble those of the apartheid-era in South Africa. The Amara teachers are scathing towards the puppet Amara political authorities. Schools are widely segregated and tribalized and so called ‘Separate but Equal’ education systems (and bureaucracies) prevail, even though students perform better in integrated schools. The education system for whites was by far superior than those for Africans and the state spent approximately six to nine times more per white student in South Africa.

Likewise in Ethiopia, the quality and quantity of school inputs (facilities, libraries, curriculum, technology, teaching staff etc.) are unequal from killil to killil. The TPLF state provides a better quality of education in Tigrai and boasts that it is expanding education in accordance with the United Nations Millennium Development Goal elsewhere. The Amara teachers, however, emphasize the powerful social effect of inequalities among the nation’s teaching staff, based on ethnicity. For instance, teachers may be sent to seminars, where the Tigrean teachers alone are paid per diem allowances. Scholarships overseas tend to be the privilege of Tigreans. The regime’s stated aim was to ensure that by 2015, “children everywhere” are able to complete primary school i.e. massification of primary education.

Schools as a Weapon for Domestication

We are far from this modest target particularly in the so called Amhara state, yet bogus ‘universities’ are sprouting throughout the country. The Amara teachers dismiss the regime’s educational claims as yet another propagandistic ploy designed to placate the rising discontent among the learning populations and teaching staff of the region. One way to measure educational quality is through the opinion of teachers and students. Negativity abounds here.  The teachers in the Amhara killil also provide a surprisingly coherent appraisal of the educational malaise afflicting the region. This is something that concerns us here and, in our opinion, the global federation of teachers (Educational International) should investigate these abusive practices as well. Students graduate without being fluent in either the country’s official language or in English. Dr. Abiy will have to improve the quality of education in Ethiopia first and equalize its provision at every level and in every killil, otherwise the projected competition for ivy league scholarships is a foregone conclusion.

The Amara population is not only socially and educationally deprived but also badly mis-educated with irrelevant curriculum and unqualified teachers. The schooling environment is harsh and the curriculum full of falsehoods. Educational resources are scarce and miserable, porous straw huts are referred to as schools. In some places schools are so debilitated, that students use the floor as a desk and be seated on rocks for lack of chairs. This is the verdict of the under-paid and over-policed Amara teachers of Ethiopia. Over 8000 teachers stand behind this recently leaked report, ostensibly sent to the central committee of ANDM, the quisling Amara party, set up by the TPLF as part of its EPRDF puppetry. Led by Eritreans (Simon Bereket), and other non-Amara (or phony Amaras) authorities vetted and thoroughly brainwashed by the TPLF puppet-masters to play their ‘federalist’ role. Wherever formal schooling is newer and less institutionalized, sociological research suggests that school effects, teacher’s quality and resource inputs are stronger predictors of achievement, rather than family SES or socioeconomic status.

Neo-Marxist theorists begin by identifying schools as the hegemonic apparatus of the state, (Althusser) and a vital part in the exercise of power (Carnoy). The shape of schools, therefore, tells us a lot about the character of the existing state.

At the moment, and even more so in the coming decades, power will be less determined by solely military-material forces and more by harnessing the population’s faculties of the mind. That is, power is gained by way of accumulation of scientific knowledge or intellectual capital i.e. its acquisition and maintenance. This is the basis of the ascent of the knowledge economy that forms the basis of the present global economy. In other words, the state of the nation’s schools, more so than its factories, begin to express the economic wellbeing and political stability of the social order. The adage that ‘your education today is your economy tomorrow’ begins to hold more truth than ever. Since the levels of education attained by a given population (intellectual capital), is considered a major indicator of the socio-economic advancement of that society, knowledge production and dissemination in society become critical indicators of national power and global competitiveness. In other words, knowledge production and distribution has become qualitatively the most productive force in societies throughout the capitalist world system. Thus, the real wealth of nations lies in the schools.

To fare anywhere in this global competition over knowledge, one begins by looking at the schooling population. It needs to be well fed and have access to quality education.  Unfortunately, and rather sadly, there are far too many hungry Amara students as the politico-economic climate is particularly harsh for the close to 30 million Amaras inhabiting Ethiopia. A great part of the TPLF strategy (manifesto) for maintaining Tigrean supremacy hinges on keeping the Amaras impoverished, mis-educated and destitute. The TPLF’s grand wizard Meles Zenawi has once said that he wants to see Amaras begging on the streets. In fact, the original discourse was about ‘eliminating’ the Amara ‘by any means.’

While schools in Tigrai afford every child a computer-assisted education, children in neighboring ‘Amhara’ state lack electricity,  basic chairs and desk, and must seat on rocks and use the ground as their desk.  As it stands one group is headed to the knowledge economic sector and Ivy league, and the other to the plantation export economy or factories as laborers.

As the need and urge (the demand) for higher education rises globally, Ethiopian authorities will have to give serious attention to their institutions. There is a significant shortage of skills in the sciences and the emergent fields. Meanwhile, there has been a proliferation of new policy thinking about higher education or universities. Higher education is now reputed to wield a higher rate of return on investment. This was not always the case however. The equation was for a long time favoring investment in basic education. For the African population advanced university education was considered a waste of time and resources at best and an indulgence, at worst. This was the orthodoxy during the structural adjustment programs (SAPs) decades. This assumption triggered drastic cuts in financing at the post-secondary level, sharply tilting the funding scheme in favor of basic education.

This doctrine no longer holds. Primary education merely prepares Africans to remain efficient ‘hewers of wood and drawers of water’ for the global economy, nothing more. Changing its policies “Higher education,” declared the World Bank in 2000 “is the modern world’s basic education, but many countries are falling further and further behind.”

In order to meet the emerging exigencies of globalization, the new world order and the onset of flexible accumulation and the knowledge economy, a vigorous reshaping of universities across the world is underway. The reshaping begins from the realization that knowledge is the costliest part in contemporary production processes.  That education helps the economic advancement of societies is no longer in question. In international sociological comparisons among nations, the level of education attained by a given population is considered a major indicator of the socio-economic advancement and potential of that society.

Enhancing complex human capital development to augment productivity and overall competitiveness in the global economy is now the norm. Yet, about half of Africans are living without access to an electricity grid, and these power shortages undermine and disrupt the education process of children. Overall, the continent still lags behind the rest of the world in competitiveness and this is related to its uncompetitive education system including its dilapidated higher education institutions.

The overall quality of sub-Saharan Africa’s universities is quite regrettable, according to the varied international surveys. In fact, they barely draw a comparative mention internationally. To be sure, all rankings have their inherent limitations. Some can be quite subjective but they all give certain broad ideas on the institution’s overall performance.  One thing is certain here.  They all show the same broad results: African universities don’t rate at all internationally; so they have created their own African ranking system. The rankings measure different things.

Overall, the best universities in the continent are found in South Africa. Overall, African higher education or universities are lacking in quality. Most of the instructors are mediocre, not to say unqualified.  Addis Ababa University, once reputable, ranks at 72 of the top hundred African universities. Newer universities in Rwanda, Botswana and Swaziland score higher. Growing authoritarianism, segregated dorms, mediocre instructors, fearful students, deteriorating academic freedoms and constant brain drain tends to be the norm in Ethiopia. Moreover, a high percentage of Ethiopian immigrants fleeing to the West have educational degrees, and are often better educated than native Canadians or Americans. Experts believe that there was more freedom of expression and debate on campus during the monarchy half a century ago. With all this in mind, considerably more professional policy attention and resources have to be first allocated to the challenge of constructing more equitable, efficient, relevant and democratically vibrant public education systems, including tertiary educational institutions in Ethiopia. The focus on comprehensive education reform, preceding the Ivy League competition, is something all well-intentioned citizens support.

Aklog Birara (DR.)

Ethiopia’s flawed model of state and party led and dominated development began immediately after the TPLF dominated ethnic coalition, the EPRDF, took power in 1991. Since then, party, government and state merged and operated seamlessly as the omnipresent and omnipotent one dominating all social, economic, political and even spiritual life. “Revolutionary Democracy and the Developmental State” that Meles Zenawi crafted so beautifully and strategically served the dominant party by enabling it to capture both politics and economics. It enabled elites to capture the entire modern economy.

Given massive Official Development Aid (ODA) that now exceeds $40 billion, $4 billion per annum over the past few years and billions from the Diaspora and additional billions from Foreign Direct Investment since 2004/2005 when the Chinese entered Ethiopia’s lucrative market, the ruling party embarked upon massive infrastructure investment. Such investment is also a sure way to steal from the public good.

This is the foundation of Ethiopia’s growth. It would have been unthinkable for the governing party to raise Ethiopia’s growth rates each year without massive aid. It would have been unthinkable to raise school enrollment, build colleges and universities in each Kilil, provide broader health services, raise incomes even modestly, create new millionaires, and apparently dollar billionaires, build private villas, skyscrapers and condominiums, build mega projects, including “White Elephants”) and appoint 400 generals in a country that needs only a few, without this unprecedented inflow of capital.

The development model has allowed the capture and concentration of immense wealth by the TPLF, it endowments, loyal supporters and profit seekers at enormous cost to the vast majority of Ethiopia’s 110 million people. This concentration has triggered at least the following:

• Popular resentment and uprising spanning over 13 years, since at least the flawed election of 2005; and culminating in making the current regime illegitimate
• The decimation of Ethiopia’s private sector that is crowded out by party and government enterprises
• Illicit outflow of $ 3 billion per year for several years that is now estimated at $30 to $40 billion
• Diminished public and investor confidence in Ethiopia’s governing elite
• Surrender of Ethiopia’s sovereignty and long term interests
• Inability to match demand of basic goods with supply
• Environmental degradation arising from the misallocation of capital and lack of government oversight in the use of chemicals
• Rising prices
• Hopelessness among Ethiopia’s youth, 70 percent of whom are under the age of 35
• Utter diminution of commercial bank and national bank assets, with the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia alone having leant and lost in excess of 400 billion Birr and
• Foreign exchange shortages and escalating debt levels that pose substantial risks to the Ethiopian economy

These are all systemic, structural and policy linked and cannot be resolved through public decrees and pronouncements. The system that created them in the first place cannot possibly be the cure. Ethiopia must therefore face this stark reality and deal with it going forward.

I grant the TPLF dominated EPRDF kudos for doing its level best to modernize one of the poorest and least developed nations on the planet. Yet, the regime needs to recognize that Ethiopia is still one of the poorest and one of the most corrupt countries in the world. It is at the bottom of 20 of the least wealthy countries in Africa. So, the challenges ahead far exceeds the accomplishments over the past 27 years.

The governing party anchored its modernization model on three pillars: peace, democracy and development. It is easy to propagate these terms as solutions. The fact remains that governing elites are the source of the problem and uttering these terms won’t solve the problems. These same elites who utter the words have never changed their practices. None of them has the courage to say, “Change starts with me.”

Of the three I would give the regime a “C” grade on development and all “Fs” on peace and democracy. As I write this commentary, it is tragic that the Amhara and Oromo people, especially the former are being killed, maimed, degraded and removed from their lands. No single high official has uttered a word concerning this latest well-orchestrated assault.

This leads me to the June 5, 2018 unexpected announcement by Prime Minister Dr. Abiy’s government concerning the privatization or semi-privatization of government or State Owned Enterprises (SOEs). Such enterprises have a well-established history in Ethiopia and in numerous other countries including China, whose development model has been in vogue in Ethiopia. China informed the Financial Times that it is “scaling back its investments in Ethiopia owning to such concerns as bureaucratic inefficiency, taxes and corruption.” It has invested $13 billion.

Not all SOEs are the same. This is why careful study and planning is vital in implementing the program. In the early 1990s, Meles singlehandedly privatized profit making and non-profit making SOEs and facilitated massive transfers of assets from the Ethiopian people to a selected few, most of them Tigrean nationals. EFFORT did not become a $5 billion conglomerate by producing goods and services. Among other things, it hemorrhaged the banking system that is now in a dire situation. This and other monopolies shut out Ethiopia’s private sector making it the least developed in the entire Africa.

For reasons that most readers would discern the TPLF-dominated regime has been inimical to the Ethiopian private sector. Meles was known to call this sector and independent intellectuals and academics “rent-seekers,” a term that is close to greed, bribery, corruption and outright theft. There is a plethora of evidence that rent seeking, underhanded commissions, nepotism, bribery, corruption and illicit outflow of funds bleed any society. They diminish productivity and induce public resentment and outrage. Ethiopian society bleeds as a consequence of these ills. A market economy prevents these excesses and a party and government dominated one exacerbates them willingly and knowingly. Ethiopia deserves a market economy.

The reader will recall the false notion Meles stated over and over again that Ethiopia’s loss of its access to the sea will have minimal impact. Tragically for Ethiopia, Meles opined then that a “port is just like any other commodity. You can create it or buy it.”

Guess what! He is patently wrong. Because Ethiopia is land locked and far away from ports, the cost of Ethiopia’s imports and exports is enormously high. This loss has degraded Ethiopia’s competitiveness. It has also make Ethiopia’s national security untenable. The new Prime Minister needs to give the utmost priority.

The same holds true with regard to the role of the governing party’s lead cohort, the TPLF as a potential creator of wealth and employment for the Ethiopia people. Its dominance has eroded both. It’s secretly and guardedly held assets such as EFFORT must therefore be subject to privatization.

It is therefore a puzzle to me that Prime Minister Dr. Abiy’s government decided to privatize or semi-privatize strategic public assets such Ethiopian Airlines now without public debate.

Other priorities notwithstanding:

The first priority is to retrieve the stolen billions of dollars and to make those who stole them accountable. Future theft, graft and illicit outflow should be criminalized now.

The second is to boost the private sector and make it competitive.

The third is to clean up the rotten and corrupt banking and financial system.

The fourth and supporting institutional mechanism is to issue a regulatory framework that empowers rather than restrains freedom of movement of social and financial capital.

Share distribution must be democratized in such a manner that access is available to the poor and the middle class first; and the rest later.

I know of no successful country that tries to undo harm from poor and corrupt governance by privatizing only. It is institutions that matter most.  Otherwise, systemic risk won’t go away.

I therefor pose the following questions to the Prime Minister who I admire.

1. Why the urgency?

2. Have Ethiopian economists and financial experts within the country been asked to conduct a serious and professional study and come-up with options?

3. What is the criteria in selecting strategic public SOEs from others?

4. Who would be the primary beneficiary of the privatization scheme?

5. What mechanisms have been put in place to ensure that the billions of dollars stolen are not used to buy these assets?

6. Who recommended the scheme in light of the disastrous precedents of advice from the World Bank, the IMF, foreign consultants and such personalities as Tony Blair who labeled some African dictators as “Renaissance Men?”

June 6, 2018

VOA Eneweyaye with Gebru Asrat, Dr Berhanu, Dr.Amaw, and Ato Abeaw

Achamyeleh Tamiru

Who is directly responsible for the mass sterilization of young Amhara women and how they have been sterilized?

It has been more than 12 years since we have heard the shocking news about the mass sterilization of young Amhara women after they were forced to use sterilizing contraceptives and/or ordered to take sterile contraceptives in the name of preventing pregnancy. This inhuman and barbarous cruelty by the fascist TPLF regime is a deliberately designed project to de-populate the Amhara people and eliminate the Amhara race from the earth’s surface. Seven years after this TPLF “project” has been implemented, most Amhara schools have started to become empty because there are no young children in most of the Amhara rural village.

After this tragic story has happened, I have been exploring how fascist weyyane has managed to sterilize young Amhara women. Here is the whole story that I come to learn from the inside sources I have at the Ministry of Heath. Under the Weyyane`s Ministry of Health, there is an agency called Pharmaceuticals Fund and Supply Agency (PFSA). PFSA was established in September 2007 by Weyyane`s Proclamation No. 553/2007. As a government agency, PFSA has been tasked with the role of administering every drug related issues in the country.

The first director of PSFA is a TPLF fighter called Hailesilassie Bihon. It is this gentleman called Hailesilassie Bihon who is the mastermind behind the mass sterilization of young Amhara women. Before he has been assigned to the director of PFSA, Haileselassie Bihon was the general manager of Ethiopia’s Drug Administration and Control Authority. During the period of Amharas mass death in Gojjam due to malaria, Haileselassie Bihon was the general manager of Ethiopia’s Drug Administration and Control Authority.

As part of TPLF`s Amhara genocidal politics, when there was a malaria outbreak in Gojjam in 1997/8, Haileselassie Bihon has deliberately stopped supplying anti-malarial drug to the Amharas sick with malaria. This systematic denial of medical aid, because of their ethnic category, has contributed to the Amharas mass death in Gojjam in 1998 due to an easily preventable and less fatal malaria.

During that time, there were concerned personalities who established anti-malaria associations as an NGOs to help patients bedridden with malaria, particularly in rural Gojjam, in western Ethiopia. However, Haileselassie Bihon has limited their operation with the pretext that no private health or pharmaceutical institution in Ethiopia has been granted a license to import or distribute antimalarial drugs. Because of this, the anti-malaria NGOs had limited outreach and impacts as compared to the potential they had.

After he become the director of PFSA, one of the first tasks Hailesilassie Bihon had in mind was to continue his genocidal mission against the Amharas by sending short acting drugs (depo-provera, pills, etc…) to what is now called Amhara region but long acting drugs to Tigray region. PFSA has branch offices all over the country.

One of the branch offices of PFSA in what is called Amhara Region is located in Bahir Dar. In 2007, for the so called Amhara region, Hailesilassie Bihon has deliberately sent short acting contraceptives(depo-provera, pills, etc…) to the Bahir Dar`s PFSA branch office with an order to the “Amhara Regional Health Bureau” to distribute the short acting to the zones and Woredas of the “region” as soon as possible. According my inside sources at the ministry of Health, the science behind short acting drugs is that they act in hormones and the usage of them for more than 4/5 times lead to infertility.

Left with no option, on the one hand, and because they have been forced by “Amhara Regional Health Bureau” to use them (for the Bureau has been dictated and given orders by Haileselassie Bihon to force every fertile women in the region use short actings) as family planning methods, on the other hand, young Amhara women had no choice than using the short actings more than 4/5 times to reduce the risk of an unplanned pregnancy. It is this genocidal project of TPLF led by Haileselassie Bihon that has resulted to the mass sterilization of young Amhara women for the last one decade or so.

Haileselassie Bihon was not alone when he designed the mass sterilizing project of young Amhara women. TPLF medics such as Dr. Ataklti Fisseha, the director of UNICEF Ethiopia, whose wife called Miheret Hiluf is/was a directorate at the Ministry of Health and Dr. Gebreegziabher, who is now working at the WHO-Ethiopia, have advised him how to run that “operation” and with great results.

After he finished ALL the damages he can cause on the Amharas, Hailesilassie Bihon has retired three years ago and he is currently the owner of the leading pharmaceutical wholesaling industry in the country that has a capital of over USD 300 million. He was able to build this massive amount of personal wealth with the return he got for the service he provided in sterilizing young Amhara women.

BBC News

Ethiopia’s surprise announcement that it will abide by a 2002 border ruling raises the prospect of a final end to what was Africa’s deadliest border war and peace with its long-time rival, Eritrea.

Tens of thousands of people were killed in the two-year conflict and Eritrea remains on a war footing, demanding that Ethiopia withdraws from the “occupied territory”.

How genuine is this peace offer?

It seems pretty genuine.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed signalled in his inauguration speech in April that a major policy shift could be in the offing – he called on Eritrea to resolve their differences, saying the two neighbours were “not only intertwined in interests but also in blood”.

Now, the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) has announced it will fully accept and implement the peace deal that ended the war.

Image copyrightREUTERS

Mr Abiy said soldiers deployed to the contested town of Badme had experienced “psychological effects”, according to the state-linked Fana Broadcasting Corporate.

“We should end this suffering, and fully return to peace,” the prime minister is quoted as saying.

Ethiopia’s previous leaders always said they accepted the 2002 ruling but they never actually implemented it.

Mr Abiy’s announcement is especially significant as it comes after the release of thousands of jailed politicians, activists and protesters, including British citizen Andargachew Tsege who was being held on death row, and the promise of wider reforms.

What does Eritrea say?

Eritrea has not commented on Ethiopia’s announcement but Information Minister Yemane Gebre Meskel had previously told the BBC that relations could not be resolved until Ethiopia withdrew “from the occupied territories”.

“The ball is now in Eritrea’s court,” Tesfalem Araia from the BBC’s Tigrinya service says.

“Eritrea has been on a war footing and the justification for forced conscription into the army has been the conflict with Ethiopia,” he adds.

That forced conscription is the reason given by most of the thousands of Eritreans who flee the country, making the perilous journey to Europe.

Read more:

• The story behind Africa’s unfinished war
• Is this the man to change Ethiopia?
• Why has Ethiopia imposed a state of emergency?
• Has Eritrea’s migration problem been exaggerated?

What happens next?

Assuming that Eritrea accepts Ethiopia’s goodwill, the next step would be for officials from the Eritrea-Ethiopia Boundary Commission to physically demarcate the border.

Image copyrightBBC SPORT

Until now, this has been impossible because it is a military zone.

The main bone of contention is the town of Badme, the main focus of the war, but there are other disputed areas right along the border.

What’s happening in Badme?

Badme is a nondescript, heavily militarised small town with little or no social activity.

More than 1,000 people live there, with almost all their activities limited to military services, says the BBC’s Berihu Lilay, who visited the town in January.

He says he saw Eritrean and Ethiopian forces sitting in neat rows facing each other across the border, with just a few kilometres separating them.

Residents told our reporter they look forward to peace between the two nations.

Despite the strain, the 16-year standoff has not cut the ancient ties between the two border communities who both belong to the Tigrinya ethnic group, our reporter says.

A potential flashpoint, he says, which will need to be negotiated delicately, is the fate of a graveyard where thousands of Ethiopian soldiers, including top army leaders, who died in the conflict have been buried.

Why is it happening now?

It seems as though everything is changing pretty fast in Ethiopia, since Mr Abiy came to power.

Just a few months ago, a state of emergency was imposed following the resignation of Hailemariam Desalegn as prime minister. He said he was standing down in order to end months of anti-government protests, which had led to many deaths and arrests.

Image copyrightAFP

Since taking office, Mr Abiy has moved fast to spend the political capital he had earned after gaining the backing of the EPRDF to become prime minister.

Three months in, he has managed to get the ruling coalition to back his policies including the lifting of the state of emergency.

Being the leader of the Oromo People’s Democratic Organisation (OPDO), one of the four ethnic parties which make up the EPRDF coalition, provides him with a solid political base to implement his policies.

He has also in a short time managed to assert his authority and created excitement in the country about his leadership.

“There’s palpable optimism about Mr Abiy in the country,” says the BBC’s Emmanuel Igunza in Addis Ababa.

What else was announced?

Few would have predicted that the opening of the first Pizza Hut in Addis Ababa in April was an indicator that Ethiopia was opening up its state-controlled economy.

At the same time as the announcement was made about respecting the border ruling, the ruling coalition also said it had approved a policy to loosen the state’s grip in the energy, telecoms, logistics and aviation sectors to allow private domestic and foreign investment – another huge shock, with potentially massive implications.

Investors will be able to acquire a limited stake in Ethio Telecom, Ethiopian Airlines, Africa’s largest and most successful airline, Ethiopian Electric Power and Ethiopian Shipping and Logistics Services Enterprise.

Investments in the telecommunication sector could help improve mobile and internet services which have not seen the same rapid expansion as in the rest of the world.

Until now, a state firm has had a monopoly on internet access, which remains costly and slow.

Analysts see the liberalisation, however limited, as part of the government’s plan to rescue the economy, which had been one of the fastest-growing in Africa.

The Financial Times recently reported that China, Ethiopia’s biggest foreign investor, was scaling back investment in the face of rising foreign exchange shortages and government debt.

The IMF forecasts that Ethiopia will have 8.5% growth this year, down from a consistent 10% in the last decade.

Image copyrightREUTERS

Hallelujah Lulie, an analyst on Horn of Africa affairs observes: “As things stand now, there is a fine line between buying state enterprises and buying the state in Ethiopia. We don’t want a transition from an authoritarian state to a private tyranny. The decision to partially privatise some of the commanding heights is unwise to say the least.”

Despite these reservations, it seems as though there is a real chance that Ethiopia, Africa’s second-most populous country, could be about to change from a tightly-controlled state under the permanent threat of war, to a place where citizens may be able to enjoy more freedom on a number of different levels.

Nizar Manek John Bowker
6 June 2018

Gareth Jennings, London – IHS Jane’s Defence Weekly

Ethiopia has received from the United States a surplus Lockheed Martin C-130 Hercules transport aircraft, the US Embassy in Addis Ababa announced on 7 June.

The C-130E adds to one already donated by the US government in 2014 to aid airlift duties for the Ethiopian contingent fighting as part of the African Union (AU) Mission in Somalia force.

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By De Birhaner

New Premier of Ethiopia, Dr. Abiy Ahmed, has started to gradually consolidate power by replacing long serving “untouchable” head of the Ethiopian National Defence Force General Samora Yenus by Major General Seare Mekonen and the faceless Director General of the National Intelligence and Security Services (NISS), Getachew Assefa by Major General Adem Mohammed, who had served as the Head of the Ethiopian Air Force until yesterday.

Abiy is travelling to Uganda upon an official invitation of President Yoweri Museveni.

Getachew Assefa’s replacement is a major news item since his tenure was marked with an arbitrary abuse of power, when countless number of Ethiopian dissidents were killed, abducted, harassed, jailed and exiled. The NISS and the Defense Forces have also been accused of deep nepotism embedding the leadership of both institutions by ethnic Tigreans.

The new officials are not new but their reshuffle could likely give Abiy the leeway to better command and manage rather than the former entrenched leaders.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has appointed Seare Mekonnen (Gen.) as the new Army Chief of Staff replacing Samora Yenus (Gen.).

Samora served as army Chief of Staff for the past 17 years after Tsadkan Gebretensae (Let. Gen.) left his position.

Abiy also restored the full honor and benefits of two army officials namely Alemshet Degiffe (Maj. Gen.) and Assamnew Tsige (Brig. Gen.) who were recently released from prison were convicted of conspiring to overthrow the constitutional order though violence.

Reporter

Date June 6, 2018
By Ermias Hailu

From its humble beginning on “የካቲት 11, 1967”, the Tigrayan People Liberation Front (TPLF) has evolved as the undisputed and formidable driving force behind the renaissance of Ethiopia. The TPLF won many bloody wars against its various rivals and came to power in 1991 as hard core of EPRDF coalition. Though, all of the three EPRDF coalition strategic partners (ANDM (from Amhara), OPDO (from Oromia) & SEPDM (from South)) were born, nurtured and grown out of the womb of TPLF, recent visible rifts within EPRDF could create instability and breakup of the coalition with huge risks and consequences to the peace and stability of Ethiopia. It looks ANDOM and OPDO are pushing for radical changes and liberalization of the Ethiopian political system, as they have been under pressure by the riots that have been going on at their respective regions, whereas the TPLF is resisting radical change. SEPDM looks sandwiched in between and is trying to narrow down and contain the rift.

In the meantime, Egypt and neo-colonialists funded rivals of EPRDF from diaspora have been launching intensive attack on the EPRDF for the last seven years (mainly starting from the start of the Great Ethiopian Renaissance Dam(GERD)) and are currently rewriting their tactical move toward complete annihilation or submission of the TPLF/EPRDF.

The purpose of this article is to forward some ideas that I believe will help the EPRDF member parties to resolve their differences in peaceful and timely manner. One important fact is that all EPRDF party members should understand that disagreement and rift among themselves will destroy all of them. None of them will be immune from the consequences of their failure to address their differences and shall be accountable for any subsequent instability in Ethiopia and Horn of Africa caused as a result. Hence, four of them should equally and responsibly play their respective part to avoid fall out and in transforming Ethiopia to a vibrant democracy and through that assure its sustainable peace and stability, and its fast-economic growth to lead the renaissance of Africa.

I was recently in Ethiopia and witnessed live the revolt in the streets of Oromia in person as well as the tension and nervousness among peace loving Ethiopians and the devastating and ugly face of the riots. I went to various regions of the country (Gondar, Tigray, Oromia, Addis Ababa, Awassa, the border between Ethiopia and Eritrea, etc.). I hid my Tigrayan identity while visiting Oromia and Amhara, as innocent Tigrayans were hunted (never happened in the history of Ethiopia) for their life thanks to the genocidal hate and poisonous propaganda sown by the various media outlets in diaspora who are funded by the enemies of Ethiopia.

I have strong conviction that EPRDF has to and will stay in power for years to come if it successfully develops and implements a “radical transformation strategy” on itself as soon as possible. I have branded the radical transformation strategy as “Rebirth Strategy”! The Rebirth Strategy is completely different to the “renewal and deep renewal” strategies that EPRDF have been trying to implement for some time without any visible result except the further deterioration of government services to the public, increasing greed and hyper corruption, and worsening instability of the country. Rebirth Strategy is about to be born again with regenerated and brand-new organs that will give the nation brand new values, culture, attitude, and spirit. It is about uprooting the growing greed, envy, deceit, and immoral tendencies of each Ethiopian and planting and nurturing selflessness, love, forgiveness, hope, resourcefulness, self-awareness, innovation, morality, purposefulness, hard work etc. on each citizen.

One may ask how can rebirth be achieved in EPRDF?  The starting point is that the aging EPRDF has to delete all its old mindsets (not easy but possible through effective and participative change management process) and has to come up with zero draft brand-new strategy that is acceptable to Ethiopians. EPRDF has to stop pushing its irrelevant ideologies, policies and values on the throat of Ethiopians.  Rather, it has to start with the dynamically changing needs, aspirations, and demands of Ethiopians and work backwards to develop relevant ideologies, policies and strategies. Today most of EPRDF members are obsessed with wealth creation through corruption, whereas, the born again EPRDF must have zero tolerance to corruption and be obsessed in meeting the dynamic needs of each Ethiopian citizen.

At the center of the new strategy should be establishing a true and equitable democratic Ethiopia that no longer kills, persecutes or arrests Ethiopians due to their political, religious views or other differences while assuring fast and sustainable renaissance of Ethiopia and playing a facilitating role in the renaissance of Africa. Rebirth Strategy requires unbiased strategic analysis of the current internal and external environment by challenging the status quo, identifying strategic issues and establishing brand new vision for the future, development of radical oriented strategy that uproots the old mindset and culture and replaces them with new ones. If we consider the new “Rebirth Strategy” as a new wine it would require a new wine skin (new blood/ reborn/transformed/regenerated mind set).

I would like to illustrate further the practical aspect of Rebirth Strategy using what happened in Ethiopian Airlines from the year 2000 to 2010 as a case study.

From 1991 to 2000, Ethiopian Airlines did not have a relevant, clearly communicated strategic direction and strategy, whereas its competitors from Africa, Middle East and Europe were getting stronger and stronger. As the result, the airline lost its competitiveness and was operationally loss making for two consecutive years (during 1999 and 2000). During the years from 1996 to 2000, Ethiopian Airlines was paralyzed, and was in an intensive care facing a life and death condition. In fact, experts in the aviation industry at the time included it among those airlines that will not make it to the 21st century.

In the Year 1999/2000, one of the young executives branded as “naive and arrogant” and his team conducted a detailed 30 years historical analysis and current and futuristic strategic analysis of the airline and developed various scenarios that could happen in the airline industry over the coming 20 years.  They also coined the following three core strategic directions for survival and sustainable growth of the Airline.

1. It is recommended that Ethiopian Airlines follow the path of very fast (profitable) growth by feeding on the growing and liberalized African market while strengthening its competitive position through joint venture /alliance with a reputable global airline or global airline groups, with the objective of becoming the biggest airline in Africa & one of the top 25 to 50 airlines in the world over, the next 15 to 20 years. However, fast & profitable growth requires that the airline to radically transform itself (to be born again) to offer a competitive service with cost leadership of at least 15% to 20% against its existing & upcoming competitors. (at that time Ethiopian Airlines was the 116^th airline from top world 200 airlines by revenue and the 6th airline from less than 10 top African Airlines)
2. The Airline has to transform itself from an Airline Service provider, which was focused at that time on providing passenger and limited freight transportation service, to Aviation Business Group that provides various aviation related services (this was a diversification strategy to deepen the foundation of the airline).
3. The Airline has to also address employees’ compensation & motivation issues timely & progressively. Otherwise, it will continue to lose skilled workforce & eventually this will result in its demise

In the year 2000, Ethiopian Airlines was aged being more than 50 years old, with demoralized employees, bitter conflict between management and labor union, shortage of cash, no clear strategic direction, aged aircraft, old culture and mindset, and aged internal processes and systems. Most of its top executive management were living in the past (Ethiopian Airlines pre-1991 glories) and fiercely resisted proposed change, making it too difficult to boldly champion the adoption of the above futuristic rebirth strategy (the then CEO ultimately resigned). However, the Board of Management at the time accepted the new vision and the following three radical change and fast profitable oriented coherent strategies were developed and implemented one after the other and have brought the Airline to where it is today.

(I)  Strategy for Year 2001 to 2005(doubled revenue from USD 250M to USD 500M)

(ii) Strategy for Year 2005 to 2010(doubled revenue from USD 500m to USD 1 billion)

(iii) Strategy for 2010 to 2025(brought the airline to #1 position in Africa)

Ethiopian Airlines has successfully transformed  itself and regained and sustained  its competitive advantage and has grown very fast( profitability), transformed to aviation business group( built the largest  Aviation Academy, Catering, Maintenance, and Cargo Business units  in Africa in addition to its passenger transportation business), has become a member of the  global Star Alliance and established multiple  joint ventures in Africa( currently the airline looks taking unnecessary risks by investing on multiple  small airlines  in Africa  instead of focusing on few  regional anchor points). The ultimate result is, Ethiopian Airlines is currently the biggest and best airline in Africa and among the top 50 airlines in the world.

The most important lesson from the Ethiopian Airlines case study is that if the Ethiopian government followed the advice of the then experienced top management of the Airline and did not support the new vision that was initiated by one of its inexperienced young executives, Ethiopian Airlines could have been history by now or it could have been a very small vulnerable and niche airline.

The recent decision of EPRDF to open Ethiopian Airlines for up to 49% private shareholding is the right move as it reduces the ownership risk of the government and raises fresh capital that could further fuel the fast growth of the airline. Mega global airlines could be attracted to invest and bring fresh technology and skill that will further sharpen and sustain Ethiopian Airlines competitive edge. Handle privatization project (starts from selecting the right consultant) with care to protect it from neocolonialists, that have been always unhappy on the success of the Airline. Ethiopian Airlines is the pioneer and model of renaissance for Ethiopia and Africa.

Let us come back to TPLF/EPRDF!

TPLF and EPRDF are currently living in their past glories and do not have a clear and relevant strategic direction and strategy to address the prevailing challenges and opportunities and to continue leading the renaissance of Ethiopia. That is why all the rhetoric of renewal, deep renewal, transformation, anti-corruption campaign etc. could not address what the people of Ethiopia have been demanding over the years.

After the split of its leadership in 2000, the TPLF became undemocratic and a collection of opportunist “yes men” around the late PM Meles and Tigrayans who had different views and independent thinking were rejected and persecuted (I am one of the victims). After the sudden death of PM Meles, both TPLF and EPRDF became brainless but TPLF has survived so far without its brain thanks to the unifying leaders such as Aboy Sibhat (I call him the soul of TPLF).

However, the blame goes to all aging leaders of TPLF for intimidating, demoralizing and persecuting those young Tigrayans that could have replaced them timely. In that aspect, they have discredited the innocent blood of our martyrs, and all the sacrifice the Tigrayan people (including themselves) have made over the last 44 years.

Fortunately, the God of Ethiopia has given us the right man at the right time: Dr. Abiy Ahmed! It is simply a miracle what he was able to achieve over the last two months for the people of Ethiopia! He is giving the country a new direction, has deflated the tension and hate, brought calm, stability, forgiveness, love, peace, unification among Ethiopians both from within and to diasporas. He released a number of high profile prisoners and effectively negotiated for the release of thousands of  prisoners from neighboring countries. I hope our ambassadors will follow his steps!

As a conclusion, I would like to advise and warn the TPLF the following:

• For the sake of the innocent blood of your comrades who shed their blood during the struggle (I personally lost three of my brothers), stop living in past glories and be ready for the rebirth and regeneration of TPLF/EPRDF under the leadership of Dr. Abbey Ahmed.

• Considering the growing impatience of the Ethiopian people towards TPLF/EPRDF for failing to deliver promised changes, the TPLF and EPRDF will be thrown to the trash can of history if they fail to reinvent themselves.

My advices to Dr. Abiy Ahmed and his comrades who are ready for radical change and making history are also as follows:

• EPRDF will not survive without re-birth and regeneration – Please continue to boldly champion the change by progressively putting the new wine into a new skin. You may be called inexperienced, naive, arrogant by the EPRDF aging generation but you should win your comrades through dialogue, transparency, understanding, love, patience and persistence. They are the most important stakeholders for your success not the Egypt funded various political groups and/or so-called activists from the diaspora.

• Widen the scope of EPRDF by integrating Somalia, Afar, Gambella and Benishangul Gumuz representative parties.

• Develop and implement three to five years radical transformation (rebirth) strategy for EPRDF and its member parties with a new vision, mission, values and goals and programs. Identify the need of Ethiopians and work backward.

• Give top priority to unify and rally all EPRDF members behind you. Your political legitimacy, weight and strength and effectiveness emanates from united and strong EPRDF not from the diaspora or from the popularity you have among Ethiopians. Take note that: The crowds that laid their clothes on the ground to welcome Jesus Christ as he triumphantly enters Jerusalem were easily misguided/manipulated within few days by their leaders and shouted for his crucification, while demanding for the release of the notorious prisoner Barabbas.

• Participate! Participate……. Participate………. Participate all key stakeholders- a critical success factor for effective change management.

• Widen the political space for the competition but be innocent as a dove and wise and discerning as a serpent. We have so called politicians /activists from the diaspora who are agents of strategic enemies of Ethiopia including Egypt who plan to destabilize and/or enslave Ethiopia at any cost.

• On the shortage of hard currency look for quick wins such as mobilizing  the diaspora and creating innovative incentives that compensate the difference in exchange rate between the official and parallel market ( reduced price condominiums, lands and duty free or reduced import tax  privileges could be offered as a reward to the Ethiopians in the diaspora once their remittance reward points reaches to a certain threshold similar to the airline loyalty  reward program).There should be also focus on tourism, minerals, precious stones, oil & gas exploration etc.,  to boost export revenue that will be used to fund strategic capital projects for sustainable development of the country.  Inhouse production of fertilizer, increasing the production of wheat (by changing the land policy and progressively avoiding subsides on imported wheat) and increased awareness on the use of inhouse manufactured goods also could reduce foreign currency requirement.  Over the last 27 years, EPRDF was blinded not to exploit the wealth underneath (to generate easier capital) because its agriculture led development strategy started with the assumption that the main resources the country have are only “land and cheap abundant labor”, which is completely not true. What about the uncolonized mindset that could transform Ethiopia and Africa? What about the unexplored wealth underground? What about the religious, historical, cultural and natural tourist attractions? What about the strategic location of Ethiopia?

• Continue with the fast growth strategy to position Ethiopia to lead the renaissance of Africa. Ultimately, Ethiopia’s renaissance will give birth to Africa’s renaissance which will also be the guarantee for sustenance of Ethiopian renaissance.

• Continue to build an effective and efficient lean military machine as deterrence to Egypt and its proxies that win war easily & quickly (if we are forced to defend ourselves/Please note that Ethiopia’s history is a history of defensive war and it shall continue to be so). Whether we like it or not Ethiopia sits on one of the most volatile, conflict and war prone strategic regions of the world. Egypt is the strategic enemy and rival of Ethiopia. When Egypt invaded Ethiopia in 1875, Egypt demanded to be given the exact region what the Italians later called Eritrea or continue with their invasion of Ethiopia. Emperor Yohannes rejected their demand and fought and defeated them until their government in Egypt was collapsed. Unfortunately, the Italians replaced the Egyptians and succeeded to curve out Eritrea. After the 2nd world war the UN decided to federate Eritrea with Ethiopia, though Egypt claimed Eritrea and strongly opposed the federation with Ethiopia. Thereafter, Egypt created the Eritrean People Liberation Front (EPLF) and funded the 30 years bitter war that caused untold death, destruction and suffering to the people of Ethiopia and succeeded to snatch Eritrea from Ethiopia to make it its de facto colony. Let me repeat it clear and loud again- Eritrea is the de facto colony of Egypt and a thorn in the flesh for Ethiopia. Do not expect lasting true peace between Ethiopia and Eritrea until the insecure President Isaias, who is the agent of Egypt, that transformed Eritrea to open air prison is judged by God. Allocate more budget to the military. Leverage on the geopolitical position and strategic location of Ethiopia and establish strategic cooperation with the superpowers that enables Ethiopia to build a military power that rivals Egypt. While most of the superpowers and the Middle East economic powers have established their military base at the door steps of Ethiopia can Ethiopia survive without strong army? The answer is a big no! When the late PM Meles came to power in 1991 on his first interview for the Ethiopian Television said “we Ethiopians do not need a big army, it is better we are recognized having big industry rather than a big army”. This was an innocent wish from a naive prime minister that was to be proven disastrously wrong after 8 years when Egypt backed Eritrea stabbed him from back and invaded Ethiopia. Contrary to what the Egyptians want us to believe that they do not need the GRED, the truth is that they badly need it as “free of charge reservoir” as far as their so called historic right is protected. All the money they have invested to create instability on Ethiopia is to enable them to arm twist the Ethiopian government to sign a water sharing agreement that legitimizes their “historic claim”. That is exactly what they did to Sudan decades ago and they want to repeat it with Ethiopia. PM Dr. Abiy beware of the Egyptians! They will try to deceive you directly or indirectly (through African Union, UN, superpowers, leaders of Middle East rich countries, etc. they know you have shortage of hard currency and they will offer you with strings attached) say no to their zero sum demands, like the late PM Meles who gave his precious life for his country.

• Build strategic security alliance with USA and Israel, while maintaining strategic economic alliance with China and maintaining good relationship with India, Middle East, Europe, Russia etc.

• Deepen the security alliance and economic integration with Sudan.

• The Algiers agreement with Eritrea was misguided and was a mistake (may be Ethiopia was cheated through the hidden hand of Egypt working through Algeria’s’ President who brokered the deal. I was surprised when I recently knew that Egypt and Algerians worked together to create the Eritrean People Liberation Front).

It should be the 1st stupid post war peace agreement in the world because “a defeated aggressor was appeased as if it was the victor”. TPLF and EPRDF have repetitively failed Ethiopians with regard to Eritrea as illustrated below and history will make them accountable for generations to come.

(i) The TPLF recognized the Eritrean case as colonial issue denying thousands of years history of Ethiopia

(ii) EPRDF supported the secession of Eritrea from Ethiopia without securing the Assab port and reduced Ethiopia to be the most populated country on earth without sea port

(iii) Disgracefully ended the costly border war in the year 2000 with huge cost to Ethiopia but no gain (I feel very angry about those Ethiopian soldiers who died during the in harry and unorderly withdrawal from Eritrea after the defeat of Eritrea)

(iv) Signed the most stupid post war agreement which did not bring peace and caused major economic, security damage to Ethiopia particularly to the people of Tigray

When is TPLF/EPRDF to apologize for all their mistakes on the issue of Eritrea?

What mistake should we expect next …. next? I hope you are not rushing to make again another concession without securing long lasting peace to the people of Tigray who have suffered the most during the last 20 + 17 years. Do not expect to reduce military expense as far Egypt continues its zero-sum game against Ethiopia and cost reduction does not justify rushed concession to President Isaias.

I hope Dr. Abiy to learn from history and never again to appease Shabia! Do not discredit the blood of hundreds of thousands of Ethiopians who died in the battle fields/mountains of Eretria from Emperor Yohannes to Emperor Haile Selassie, Derg to EPRDF time.

There should not be any border demarcation without comprehensive peace agreement that could bring a lasting peace! The aggression of Eritrea in May,1998 was never caused by border dispute, it was caused by economic related disagreement between Shabia and EPRDF and President Isaias’s political ambition to directly or indirectly dominate and rule the horn of Africa. The good news is Shabia’s days are numbered as its “judgement cup is full” and its demise is soon. No compromise on Eritrea and be vigilant as president Isaias is armed and dangerous and his spies have already penetrated the Ethiopian government structure.

• President Kirr of South Sudan has failed his people and cooperated with Egypt to harm Ethiopia. He shall go soon!
• Do not forget the suffering of our brothers in Yemen, Ethiopia should play a role as neutral peace broker.
• Learn from the mistakes of President Morsi of Egypt and from President Gorbachev of the former USSR since both of them miserably failed while managing national changes.
• I have also included the link for four of my articles from last year as they are still relevant.

Least but not last, I would like to declare my strong conviction that God has given EPRDF a 2nd chance, as far as it is willing to be born again, and I would like to boldly restate the 1st ever message EPRDF repeatedly broadcasted on the Ethiopian radio 27 years ago to herald the rebirth of EPRDF as follows:

“የዘመናት የሕዝብ ብሶት የወለደዉ ጀግናዉ የኢሕዲግ ሰራዊት ደርግ ሲጠቀምበት የነበረዉን ሬድዮ ጣብያ ለሰፊዉ ህዝብ ጥቅም ተቆጣጥሮታል”

Chapter I for EPRDF is over, Chapter II begins under the leadership of Dr. Abiy Ahmed!

God Bless Ethiopia

God Bless TPLF/EPRDF! Amen!

https://www.zehabesha.com/seven-point-turn-around-strategy-to-bring-ethiopia-back-to-peace-and-stability/

http://aigaforum.com/article2016/Ethiopia-Eritrea-082416.htm

http://sudantribune.com/spip.php?article61983

https://www.zehabesha.com/why-is-the-ethiopian-government-silent-in-exposing-egypts-role-in-destabilizing-ethiopia/

By Assegid Habtewold[1]

In September 2016, my article entitled “A glimpse into the plausible alternative futures of Ethiopia” was posted on some Ethiopian websites. By employing one of the tools I use as I facilitate strategic planning sessions- Scenario Planning, I showed the four alternative futures of Ethiopia (see the attached pic) and pleaded both the ruling party and oppositions to sit down and negotiate to avoid bloodshed and chaos.

When I wrote this futuristic commentary, both sides were seemingly strong with some leverage. Accordingly, their respective supporters downplayed the idea of negotiation to come up with a win-win deal. The ruling party supporters argued that the party is constitutionally authorized to lead the nation that it doesn’t need to negotiate and share power with oppositions. Supporters of oppositions didn’t want the ruling party to be part of the solution that they didn’t see the point of coming to the negotiating table. They demanded the total dismantling of the ruling party and then the transfer of power to a transitional government.

I didn’t blame both camps because very few know about alternative futures. Most of us think of just one future- a future that we would like to see. However, in real life, no one can predict the future that manifests in the coming weeks, months, and years ahead. Here is an excerpt concerning the four prospects I identified back then: “Future 1 (Quadrant 1, Q1) could be one possibility where TPLF may remain strong and at the same time the struggle continues to maintain its momentum. Future 2 (Q2) could be another alternative future where TPLF may remain strong while the struggle weans. Future 3 (Q3) could be the third alternative future where both sides may experience stagnation. Future 4 (Q4) could be another alternative future where the struggle keeps growing while the ability of TPLF to survive weakens.” As you can see from the attached pic, back then, we were in quadrant 1 (Q1)- both TPLF and the Struggle of those who opposed the ruling party were strong.

Sadly, back then, both camps expected total victory very soon that they weren’t willing to negotiate- give and take. The ruling party anticipated a future where it remains strong whiles the Struggle falters (Q2). On the other hand, the opposition camp hoped to see a future where the Struggle flourishes and then topples the ruling party (Q4). Fast forward over two months ago, before the selection of Dr. Abiy as the new PM, we actually were in quadrant Q4. However, since the struggle didn’t have a central leadership, it weakened TPLF but couldn’t tap into this scenario and dictate the terms of the transition.

Here is what I said in September 2016 if Q4 comes to picture: “The realization of Q4 doesn’t mean the people of Ethiopia will get what we want and deserve. The opposition camp is not well organized, and thus, there would be a power vacuum. We Ethiopians, though we have come together in the fight against TPLF, we have not reached consensus about the kind of Ethiopia we want to build in the post TPLF era. Don’t take this scenario lightly. Don’t just say that we can come together and reach consensus once TPLF is gone. That cannot happen considering our political culture. In this future (Q4), the people of Ethiopia, like in the past, may not have a say. This situation makes us susceptible to coup d’état from within TPLF itself or the overthrowing of TPLF by armed forces outside of TPLF. From our history, both scenarios didn’t end well. These kinds of groups feel entitled. They may not relinquish power and give it to a civilian government.”

Ladies and gentlemen, a coup d’état took place! Reformist within the ruling party led by Abbo Lemma Megersa sided with the popular struggle and snatched power from the status quo maintainers. However, for the first time in our history, this coup was a peaceful one. We must be grateful to God who heard our prayers, admire those who paid dire prices, and Team Lemma for their leadership. We avoided catastrophic bloodshed and further destruction of properties, and the disintegration of the nation.

Let me make a quick point. Some people are politically naïve and think that Team Lemma is only composed of leaders from the three coalition parties that formed EPRDF. I don’t have any evidence to show you but rest assured that there are influential and powerful TPLF reformists. We wouldn’t have a peaceful coup d’état while having TPLF controlled military, security apparatus, Federal Police, and the economy without the support of some TPLF leaders. That is why we should stop cursing TPLF as a whole. Hate politics must stop now.

Of course, there are many current and former TPLF leaders who would continue to resist fundamental changes and may even try their best to sabotage the reforms that are underway. All stakeholders should be vigilant to prevent that from happening. Nonetheless, coming out day and night and continually demonizing and demonstrating hate against all TPLF members (and sometimes the people of Tigray) is counterproductive, to say the least. The latter doesn’t help us build a political culture as we transform Ethiopia and heading to our new dawn era of brotherhood, unity of purpose, peace, stability, and prosperity.

At this point, it’s great that the majority of us are cautiously optimistic. However, now, we have to be proactive to project into the future and shape a future that is a win-win to all. We need to embrace the messages of the new Prime Minister- love, forgiveness, and unity. We should play a proactive role so that the country may experience fundamental changes in various sectors of the country, which ultimately may lead to sustainable development, democracy, and good governance.

We shouldn’t adopt a wait and see attitude. The stake is high. From our history, there was a time the people of Ethiopia enjoyed a brief moment of hope following a successful revolution, and then, a few dictators hijacked the struggle where we were forced to go back to square one. Once again, this time, we shouldn’t just anticipate one future. It is possible that the future we haven’t foreseen may come to pass and we may not like it.

If you may remember, following the removal of Haileselasie by the military junta, there were coup d’états within the larger coup d’état, which ultimately empowered Mengistu Hailemariam at the helm of power. Our beloved country never recovered from that misstep. Coup d’état against the current reformist group could be one of the happenings in the near future. Another possibility could be a superficial change by the reformists group within EPRDF because of the lack of popular support, and active participation of democratic forces, civic organizations, and the media.

That is why we all should play our part to sustain the change that just began. Team Lemma and its supporters who contributed the lion’s share toward the change that we’re experiencing right now should continue to be proactive until the full transition is successfully implemented. Project into the future, anticipate multiple futures, and then strategize, put in place laws and regulations, build institutions to shape the future we all dream to have. Those of you in the political space, in whichever camp you may be right now whether within the ruling party or oppositions, who missed the boat the first time, you have now another chance. Please be proactive this time, join the new wave of hope, reconciliation, forgiveness, and unity of purpose to play your share in shaping a future that leads to true democracy, good governance, stability, and peace. We as a society, we have what it takes to make the transition smooth and sustainable.

In the coming weeks and months, I’ll continue to share my thoughts, especially on what should be done to build the organizational and leadership capacity of key stakeholders such as the leadership of the new administration, opposition parties, media, and civic organizations so that they could be able to play their roles in the democratization process and as we build a new Ethiopia for all of her children back home, and in the Diaspora.

Ethiopia’s full restoration is near! She is on the rise! With the blessing of God and her hardworking, intelligent, able, and determined children, she will soon resume her leadership role in Africa.

[1] Dr. Assegid Habtewold is a leadership expert at Success Pathways, LLC. Assegid can be reached at ahabtewold@yahoo.com

The end to Africa’s longest war is in sight after Ethiopia said it would abide by an international ruling on its border with Eritrea.

More than 80,000 people have died during the conflict that started twenty years ago over the small town of Badme, which has a population of around 1,600.

Although both sides signed a peace agreement in 2000, Ethiopia refused to withdraw to the border established by a boundary commission based at The Hague in the Netherlands.

The dispute has rumbled on – with sporadic outbreaks of armed hostilities – ever since.

Ethiopia’s ruling coalition, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front, has now said that it would fully implement the peace deal, which would involve ceding the disputed town of Badme.

On Wednesday the country’s new prime minister, Abiy Ahmed, said that ending war and expanding economic ties with Eritrea is critical for stability and development in the region.

“All that we have achieved from the situation of the last 20 years is tension,” he said in a speech in Addis Ababa.

“Neither Ethiopia nor Eritrea benefit from a stalemate. We need to expend all our efforts towards peace and reconciliation and extricate ourselves from petty conflicts and divisions and focus on eliminating poverty.”

Eritrea, which waged a 30-year struggle for independence from Ethiopia before gaining international recognition in 1993, has not yet commented on the development.

It has previously said that restoring ties depended first on Ethiopia pulling its troops from the disputed territory.

Hyenas spark admiration, not fear, in Ethiopia’s Harar city

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“Putting an end to this situation and finding peace is necessary beyond anything else not just for Ethiopia but for the wider Horn of Africa,” the Ethiopian prime minister said.

“Every Ethiopian should realise that it is expected of us to be a responsible government that ensures stability in our region, one that takes the initiative to connect the brotherly peoples of both countries and expands trains, buses and economic ties between Asmara and Addis Ababa.”

Mr Ahmed came to power in April promising political and economic reform and has overseen the release of thousands of political prisoners, including politician Andy Tsege.

‘Andargachew (Andy) Tsige Reveals a Lot About His 4 Years Incommunicado in Ethiopia Under 23 TPLF-Only Agents

By Suba Hais
June 7, 2018

Peace between Eritrea and Ethiopia is a long overdue necessary matter. But that should not be based on The Hague’s arbitration court’s decision. There cannot be real peace between the two countries by ceding millennia old Afar and Tigray/Ethiopian territories.The negotiation of peace should be between the two brotherly countries with full participation of the countryside people inhabiting both sides of the border.After all, it is them who know well what belongs to whom. They have livedpeacefully and in harmony for millennia, before and after the advent of colonialists, respecting each other’s respective territories.Real peace is not sustainable when those on top agree to mediation by foreigners who haveno clue of the area or culture of the peoples in question. The people on both sides of the border have the same culture and traditional ways of resolving conflicts. I am sure that they would come to a solution that could satisfy both sides hadthey been left alone to solve the problem that was created by the politicians. In fact, that terrible war was imposed on them by politicians, and, as a result, people on both sides of the border have been gravely victimized.

When Shaebia invaded the Irobland, the neighboring Eritreans, the inhabitants of Shimezana, told the invaders thatthey had been living with the Irob people side by side by respecting each other’s boundary and that preparation for war was wrong.The belligerent Shaebia ignored its people andcarried on with the invasion. The first time, the brave Irob militia,Ettuqat Senbet,had returned the invaders back to where they came from by paying a great sacrifice.However, as no reinforcement arrived for them from the Ethiopian government, the Eritreans sent their mechanized army to the area and occupied the Ethiopian territory. As the EPDRF government let them languish under the occupation, the Irobs and other Ethiopians suffered heavily for two years. After two years, the Irobland and other occupied territories were liberated by the united might of the Ethiopian people. During the two yearsoccupation, the Shaebia armed forces did not conduct themselves as an entity that claims the land and the people to belong to them, but rather as a harsh enemy that came just to loot and destroy. They perpetrated wanton destruction of everything the countryside people owned,and randomly killed and abducted the inhabitants.

Now,incredible news came from Addis Abeba that the executive committee of the EPDRF has decided to implement fully the Algiers/Hague ruling. That means ceding the Ethiopian territories liberated by immense sacrifice of all Ethiopians. Over seventy thousand Ethiopians were sacrificed to liberate those territories. To give these peoples and territories to their enemy whocruelly pillaged them under the pretext of peacewould be a great betrayal. If the EPDRF does not care about this transgression, other Ethiopian political parties and the Ethiopian people in general should not let this happen. The political parties and all Ethiopian organizations should speak out about the Ethiopianess of these areas and their inhabitants. They also must do all they can so that such anincomprehensible announcement not be implemented.

This matter must be a major concern of all Ethiopian political organizations. I believe that Ethiopian political parties must defend every Ethiopian territory and the Ethiopians who live there. As all Ethiopians sent their children to liberate those areas, all political organizations must arise to save Irob, Badime and other Ethiopian territories. This is imperative as those in power cannot be relied upon to protect Ethiopian national interests and sovereignty. In fact, it is the TPLF/EPDRF that allowedShaebiato invade by denying the eminence of invasion that was evident to all. It moved its armed forces to other areas and left the border areavacated, making iteasier for Shaebia to occupy the invaded areas. Despite all Ethiopians sending their children to the region to liberate the Ethiopian territories, the prime minister at the time aborted the march of Ethiopian armed forces, and the EPDRF government went to bargain over its territory that was liberated with immense sacrifices. EPDRF must be the only government to go to court regarding its undisputable territories.

Worse still,the EPRDF agreed to go to an arbitration court instead of the International Court of Justice, which may have conducted better research about the border area lands and people. If any responsible bodyhad examined issues like where the inhabitants had been going for court disputes, or where they had been paying their taxes etc., they would easily have discovered the facts. If we take as an example the Irob region, which is one of the invaded area and now threatened to be ceded, these people lived in the region for millennia as part of Tigray/Ethiopia.They paid taxes to Tigray/Ethiopia governments and went for court cases to the Ethiopian courts. This can be easily found just by going to archives in Adigrat, Meqele or Addis Abeba. None could be found on the Eritrean side, be it Senafe, Adikeyih or Asmara. But, alas, the Ethiopian government did not care about these facts and apparently had already ceded these areas to Shaebia.They rushed to Algiers and The Hague to formally hand the territories over toEritrea. Ethiopia failed toemploy qualified and ethically fit lawyers to represent her interests. The nominally “Ethiopian” lawyers and delegation failed to properly defend Ethiopia’s interests and instead sided with Eritrea.

Besides, the Algiers/Hague deal at its core is fundamentally flawed as it relied upon null and void agreements. I will not go into detail about this at this time, however, agreements made between Emperor Menilik and the Italians regarding Ethio-Eritrean border were annulled by Mussolini’s regime,i.e., by the Italians themselves. Emperor Menilik had also added to the agreement that the deal between him and the Italians should not pass to a third party. Hence,Shaebia has not the right to inherit that agreement. Moreover, when Eritrea was federated with Ethiopia,all agreements or decisions made up till then were replaced by the federal case where Eritrea was united with Ethiopia. When African nations agreed to respect the colonial borders in 1964, Eritrea was a province of Ethiopia, not a separate political entity, so this should not apply to it. There are many other facts that demonstrate that the premises the late Melles Zenawy’s government accepted as ground to demarcate Ethio-Eritrean border were wrong.

I am stating these points not because I am against Eritrean independence, but to point out that the premise upon which Shaebia and the TPLF acted to demarcate the Ethio-Eritrean border was faulty.

When the EPDRF came to power they complied with the Shaebia’s wish to grant Eritreans the right to exercise their self-determination. But why has self-determination been denied to the Irobs and other affected Ethiopians? The right to self-determination that was applied to Eritrea should be applied to the people in question by joint commission of the two countries. There was noneed to go to Algiers or The Hague. Eritrea was not compelled to go to court to appeal for its independence, but rather acquired it by referendum agreed to by the two fronts, the Shaebia and the TPLF.Why was a referendum denied to the Ethiopians?

Furthermore, why is it that the TPLF never proclaimed that its territory had been invaded when Shaebia invaded the Irob region? To the contrary, they warned journalists not to report the news of the invasion. Additionally, why is it that the TPLF, and the Ethiopian government lead by it,never mentioned anything about the Irob Ethiopian citizens who were abducted by the Eritrean armed forces?Their whereaboutsstill remain unknown.The former foreign minister, Seyoum Mesfin, on April 11, 2003, after he stated that his government was ready to implement a border commission ruling in spite of “mistakes”said “we are simply appealing to the Commission to reconsider its unjust decisions in some parts of the border, the areas between Tekeze and Mereb rivers and the northern part of the Afar region.”Whydid not he include the Irob region in his appeal? Why did not Dr. Debretsion in his recent interview say anything about the Irob case even though he was explicitly and directly askedabout it? Could it be that all of this is because they had already ceded the region to Shaebia secretly? While the Ethiopian government failed regarding all territories that had been occupied by Shaebia, it appears that there was some kind of conspiracy regarding the Irobs and their land.

Going back to Shaebia’s behavior during their occupation, one would not destroy a territory he/she claims and would not kill and eradicate inhabitants of the same territory if their claim were sincere. They destroyed the region and its inhabitants because it has never belonged to them and they did not think it was going to be granted to them. If Ethiopia had a nationalist government that cares about its sovereignty and its citizens that would never have happened. I do not think there is any other government that let its citizens and its territory go to the government that abused them and had no legitimate claim over them. Interestingly, one Eritrean intellectual said in an interview he gave to the Voice of America-Horn of Africa division in September 1998 that the Eritrean forces occupied the Irob region “not because we claim that region, but for the purpose of strategy of war.”

What the EPDRF and The Hague tribunal did regarding the Ethiopian territories bordering Eritrea is simply a miscarriage of justice. It is a flagrant violation of the Irobs and other Ethiopians, therefore, Ethiopian political parties and Ethiopians as a whole should not let the ceding be implemented. It is a national matter and so the citizens of the nation should fully participate in the negotiation and eventual decision.

I would also dare to say that the executive committee of EPDRF alone has not the right to decide about Ethiopian territories and matters regarding national sovereignty. A party in power does not own the country and so cannot do whatever it wants to the country’s territories and other matters concerning the country’s sovereignty. EPDRF has the right to administer Ethiopia if it was elected.However, when it comes to deciding the fate of Ethiopian territories, all legally registered parties must have a say in the matter. For that matter, the entire Ethiopian people must be duly informed and participate in this topic and decision. No part of national territory should be ceded to any other country without the full participation of its citizens and their political parties, whether the parties are part of the ruling coalition, opposition or neutral.

I appeal to all Ethiopian political parties, organizations, and all Ethiopian law scholars and intellectuals to lend their voice tothis matter. I appeal to the Ethiopian Armed forces as well to stand on their people’s side and defend their nation.

I also appeal to Eritreans to not support this unjust deal that will never bring about real peace for either side. Peace between Eritrea and Ethiopia is absolutely necessary, but it must be done in a way that benefits people on both sides of the border.

Finally, I appeal to all Afars and Tigrayans to pursue extra struggle to prevent the implementation of the ceding of their native lands. As the Irobs are a particularly small community, they cannot survive being divided into two separate countries.Their very existence as a particular language group is already threatened so they must unite and stand together as one to oppose the relinquishing of part of their land.

The writer can be reached at: suba_hais@outlook.com

Amnesty International

The Ethiopian government must intervene to protect thousands of ethnic Amharas who are on the verge of displacement due to violent attacks on their homes by ethnically-motivated youth groups in Oromia Regional State, Amnesty International said.

Oromo youth groups this week surrounded Amhara homes, beating residents, and looting property in the Siyo District of Qellem Wollega Zone, Oromia State. At least 20 Amharas have been killed in such attacks since October 2017 but residents say the authorities have done nothing to stop them.

The Ethiopian government must take action to prevent these brutal attacks on the Amhara community, who … now face being made homeless.

Joan Nyanyuki, Amnesty International Director East Africa, the Horn and the Great Lakes

“The Ethiopian government must take action to prevent these brutal attacks on the Amhara community, who have been targeted due to their ethnicity and now face being made homeless,” said Joan Nyanyuki, Amnesty International’s Director for East Africa, the Horn and the Great Lakes.

An estimated 1,400 Amhara families remain in the besieged Siyo District, but residents told Amnesty International they would soon be forced to flee their homes of more than three decades after being repeatedly targeted by the Qerro and Folle Oromo youth groups.

It is no longer tenable to continue living here; we are afraid for the lives of our children.
Frustrated Amhara villager

“It is no longer tenable to continue living here; we are afraid for the lives of our children. We have packed our belongings and are ready to run away unless the government intervenes,” one villager told Amnesty International.

He added that, despite the community filing numerous reports and complaints to District and Zonal authorities in Oromia State about the ongoing attacks, the authorities had not addressed the violence.

The attacks on Amharas living in Qellem Wollega and Illu-Ababora Zones of Oromia Regional State begun in October 2017. Also affected are Amharas in Shinasha Zone of Beninshangul Regional State. At least 20 Amharas had been killed in these attacks by April 2018.

Every citizen has the right to choose where they want to establish their homes, and no one should be allowed to restrict this freedom on the basis of ethnicity.
Joan Nyanyuki, Amnesty International Director for East Africa, the Horn and the Great Lakes

Thousands have fled to Bahir Dar, the capital of the neighbouring Amhara Regional State, but some have been forced to live on the streets due to a lack of proper accommodation facilities for displaced people.

“Every citizen has the right to choose where they want to establish their homes, and no one should be allowed to restrict this freedom on the basis of ethnicity,” said Joan Nyanyuki.

“Ethiopia’s new government has been making great strides to improve human rights in the country, but the pattern of ethnically motivated violent attacks and displacement is being shamefully ignored. They must be protected from further attacks, and those already displaced must be provided with adequate alternative accommodation.”

Background

These ethnically motivated attacks in Ethiopia have caused the displacement of more than 200,000 people from the West Guji Zone of Oromia Regional State and Gedeo Zone of Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples (SNNPR) Regional State, according to UN data. At least another 20 people were killed in the violence between the Gedeo and Guji communities.

Amnesty International is monitoring and documenting the impacts of these ethnically motivated attacks in other parts of Oromia, and the country in general.

Source: – https://www.amnesty.org/

I really appreciate Dr Abiy’s recent bold step to rectify the mismanagement of his predecessors with regard to Eritrea. Given the counterpart across the border showed no interest to negotiate in the past fifteen plus years, playing on their ground is the only viable solution if we wanted to change the status quo now. That is only by implementing the Algiers Agreement, and decision by the Ethiopia Eritrea Border Commission (EEBC).

Most of us talk about giving up Badme. The is one thing, but there is even a greater devil in the details of the Agreement. This Agreement gave life to dead Colonial Agreements between Menelek II & Italy, made in 1900, 1902 & 1908. The latter one was the worst of all which divide the Afar People in parallel distance, 60km into the mainland Ethiopia from the Red Sea coast. The 1908 Agreement achieved the colonialist ambition of cutting off Ethiopia from the sea. When Eritrea seceded from Ethiopia the border between Ethiopia and Eritrea was only internal, not known by international law. As we also remember, that ‘Eritrea KIFLEHAGER’ didn’t include Assab. And there was no formal agreement between the two parties on the demarcation of the border. The only agreement was that a then KIFLEHAGER Known as Eritrea to be independent nation, what it constitute was not defined in the eyes of international law.

As a nation we repeatedly failed when it comes to managing anything related to Eritrea. Solving the current deadlock is one thing, making sure we are not repeating the mistakes we were making for centuries is another thing.

Since the decision to accept the Agreement was announced from the Ethiopian side there was much excitement and expectation from all Ethiopians. Most Ethiopian political commentators said ‘now the ball is in Eritrean court’, expecting some positive response. On the other hand the few Eritrean social media accounts are consistent in their messaging and reaction, calling the announcement a mare act to score in public relations. They said Eritrea accepted the agreement 16 years ago, it was Ethiopia who is in the wrong side of intentional law. ‘Woyane’ is just playing the old and boring game.

Generally they are not exited as we are. They insist on the withdrawal of Ethiopian Army from Badme. Sometimes they even mention the Arms Embargo levied by the UN. It is a public knowledge that Ethiopia had supported the embargo if they want it lifted, Ethiopian may support them. That only happens when dialogue is effective.

All the decisions which were made in the past including the Algiers Agreement, war with Eritrea, the demolition of the federation, the present cold response of Eritrea, gaving up Assab…. the list can go on, were decide by people in power without proper consultation of the public.

The people who represented Ethiopia during the Algiers Agreement failed a nation of 100 million people. I am not sure if they are advised enough not to fail it again this time.

•  Government may consider facility at port of Lamu near Somalia
•  Ethiopia, Kenya signed accord in May to develop land at site

Ethiopia, landlocked since the secession of Eritrea a quarter century ago, may consider building a naval base in neighboring Kenya to strengthen its military capabilities, the head of the state shipping company said.

The facility could form part of a port the Kenyan government is building at Lamu, said Roba Megerssa Akawak, chief executive officer of the state-owned Ethiopian Shipping & Logistics Services Enterprise. The 390 billion-shilling ($3.87 billion) harbor near the border with Somalia is part of the so-called Lapsset project, a transport corridor that envisions linking Ethiopia and South Sudan to Kenya.

Information Minister Ahmed Shide said he was unaware of any discussions between the two countries, Ethiopia’s interest in Lamu is mainly economic and that Roba isn’t in a position to have knowledge about talks with Kenya’s government. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s call last month for the establishment of a naval force was “a future possibility,” the information minister said. “We can only give information when we know the future plan.”

Abiy secured an agreement with Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta last month to develop land at Lamu for “logistical facilitation.” The country relies on Djibouti and Sudan for access to the sea.

Somaliland Port

Last year, Ethiopia agreed to take a share in a joint venture with DP World Ltd. to administer a port at Berbera, in the semi-autonomous region of Somaliland in northern Somalia, which will host a United Arab Emirates military airport and a naval base.

“Countries cooperate in naval activities and Ethiopia should really consider this,” Roba said in an interview in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa Wednesday. “The decision by the government to have naval interests in cooperation with other countries or of its own is very important and crucial and timely.”

A navy would be useful not only in protecting ESLSE’s fleet of 11 civilian vessels, which sail to the Indian subcontinent, the Far East and the BlackSea, but in protecting the “very volatile” Red Sea area where Ethiopia has other economic interests “and there are conflicting political interests,” Roba said.

Neighboring Djibouti, through which 90 percent of Ethiopia’s inbound trade is channeled, may be unsuitable for an Ethiopian naval facility because it already hosts facilities for global powers including the largest U.S. military base in Africa and the first such overseas post for China’s armed forces, Roba said.

‘Efficient’ Location

Djibouti is “controlled by naval forces that surround the area,” he said. “We are afraid perhaps in the future that even Djibouti may not have its own say to really decide on its own fate. This is quite a threat to Ethiopia.”

Roba considers Lamu “an efficient” location to host an Ethiopian base. “The distance from inland Ethiopia will be countered by other benefits,” he said, without elaborating.

Ethiopia disbanded its navy in 1996, three years after Eritrea gained independence after a three-decade war. The secession deprived Ethiopia of 2,234 kilometers (1,388 miles) of coastline. In 2015, the government adopted a logistics strategy to use multiple ports in the region to improve its external trade.

Kenyan Transport Principal Secretary Paul Maringa said he wasn’t able to comment because he doesn’t have details of the discussions with the Ethiopian government.