Middle East Monitor

Ethiopia has not yet started storing water from the Grand Renaissance Dam, the Egyptian Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation announced yesterday.

Responding to several satellite images that have been circulated online showing the formation of a lake on one side of the dam, the ministry stressed that the lake was formed due to a flood.

The Blue Nile flood starts in June and lasts until the end of September each year. The river receives the largest chunk of its water during the flood period with its water levels decreasing the remainder of the year.

Concerns have risen in Cairo over the “possible” negative impact the Ethiopian dam will have on Egypt’s allocation of Nile water, which amounts to 55.5 billion cubic metres.

For its part, the Ethiopian government has stressed that the dam “does not represent any harm on the downstream countries [Egypt or Sudan],” adding that it helps generate electricity for the south African country.

“The current lake’s water level does not represent any harm to Egypt’s annual water quota,” the ministry stressed.

“The lake size will witness a bigger expansion than last year, due to the increase in construction works,” the ministry pointed out, stressing that the lake will gradually shrink after the flood ends.

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Tsegaye Tegenu (PhD)

2017-11-14

Over the last two decades the role of the private sector in Ethiopian economy has been a bone of contention among government officials, business people, experts and the general public. While government officials stress that the private sector is the engine of the economy and there is enough room for businesses to strive and grow, businesses and experts argue that the public led investment growth is crowding out the private sector, making it almost irrelevant in the economy. In order to understand the exact role and level of the private sector development (PSD) and government support policies, I use the idea of an economic system and a methodology of economic taxonomy to measure and account the overall national economy of the country.

I have the assumption that the nature of the national economy of Ethiopia is composed of three types of independent economic systems that coexist side-by-side: the market economy, state economy and population economy. The value and composition of output produced in the country over a period of time (growth patterns), and the relative changes in the size and productivity of the various components of the macro aggregates (economic activities and structure) can be measured and accounted using three dimensional economic system models (see figure one for 3D economic systems). My assumption is based on three theoretical pillars: comparative economics, political economy and demographic economics.

Theoretical Pillars

Comparative economics, a methodology of classifying economic systems based on criteria of property ownership and incentives, identifies two different process of decision making in resource use and allocation. I used the assumption and approaches of comparative economics to define the market system economy in Ethiopia. A market economy is defined as an economy where nodal points of exchange (location) are dominated by value principles, exchange principles; demand principles; and principles of monetary transaction. In the case of Ethiopia, it is only the private corporations sector (both financial and non-financial) which have developed these market principles as mechanism for allocating factor resources among alternative outputs.

The second theoretical pillar of the 3D system approach is based on the concept of political economy, a study of the interaction of politics and economics. Political economy combines the ability to exercise power and the knowledge of optimal use of scarce resources. According to this theory the problem of policy choice is not simply a technical or computational one as in the case of production possibilities curves. The process of deciding technically what policy to adopt is dependent on political constrains and exercise of power. I used the perspective of political economy to define the economy controlled by the state. State economy is that part of a nation’s economy which is controlled by the political power elite. It is a planned economy in which the power elite decides how the factors of production are used and distributed. State economy is not subject to the sovereignty of the market; production, distribution and exchange market is controlled by the government, not by individuals or privately owned corporations. The definition of state economy includes party-owned business.

The third theoretical pillar of the 3D system approach is the concept of demographic economics which is used to explain the link between population and development. Demographic economics is the application of economic analysis to population growth and demographic transition. It is used to fill the theoretical gap and discusses aspects of the economy that are not captured by micro or macroeconomics, particularly the phenomenon of population change (the values of age group size, growth rate, dependency ratio, distribution, socio-economic behaviours, objectives and activities of age groups). I used the temporal and spatial effects of demographic forces and rapid population growth to identify population economy system in the country.

Population economy can be defined in terms of the management of an economy by part of the population that is growing rapidly in the country. The objective of the population economy is for reproduction, survival and multiplication of households under conditions of demographic transition, institutional and technological constraints. Population economy is not for profit, capital accumulation and investment. The definition of population economy includes the activities and outputs of smallholder agriculture and the urban informal sector. It includes all “non-observed economies” that are not covered in national accounts. In the population economy households determine what to produce, how to produce it, and how to distribute it. Nether the state (authority) nor the market (demand/supply) dictates how to allocate their scare resources and how to distribute the produced goods and services.

So, in Ethiopia there are three types of decision making process in resource allocation, production and distribution. The three dimensional approach has implications in measuring and accounting gross domestic product (GDP), the value of the goods and services produced by the Ethiopian economy in a given time period.  Traditionally, GDP is calculated using the expenditure, income or production approaches. These approaches are relevant for a one dimension economic system where there is in place the necessary mechanisms affecting the speed of an economy; namely division of labor, specialization, and technology that affect scale and growth rate of output capacity.

In Ethiopia where the factors of one dimension economy (such as the market economy) have not yet reached to a critical mass of economic actors, it is not enough to know the value (size and growth rate) of the output but also who producing the output, what is produced and how it is used. There are institutional differences in the ways how and why the society allocate resources, produce and distribute goods and services.

Data Sources

Before proceeding to the research findings it is necessary to say few words on data sources. The economic activities of the households, firms and state are systematically recorded in national accounts. National Accounts Department of the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MOFED) systematically prepares data on institutional and industrial sectors to measure macroeconomic categories of production and purchase of the country. However, disaggregated data on the share of different institutional sectors (public, private and households) is not available for a satellite account (which can be called 3D Satellite Account). As a result, I have used the consistent series compiled by the Ethiopian Economics Association (EEA) to estimate the outputs of the three economic systems.

Findings: Trends in Output Growth

The output growth of the three economic system has been remarkably low during the period (1961-1991), and came to increase in the period 1992-2003/04, and became rapid and stable since 2005. It is beyond the scope of this article to comment why the three economic systems have remained constant—neither increasing nor decreasing- for the initial period of 30 years. Suffice to mention that the economic structure was feudal and socialist between 1961 and 1991; and the economy was more regulated, inward-oriented and affected by prolonged civil war. The overall pattern of increase and the sudden upsurge in the general trends since 1991 can be explain by the change in political leadership, administrative decentralization, population doubling, open trade policies and influence of economic globalization.

Findings: Economic Contribution of the Systems

Figure 3 shows the importance of each type of economic system in generating total value-added in the economy. The figure shows that the Ethiopian economy is going through transition where the contribution of population economy is decreasing with a gradual increase in the rise of state economy. There seems to be negative correlation between the two types of economic system, in which the state economy increases as the population economy decreases. The contribution of the state economy has increased from 22 percent in 1992 to 39 percent in 2015. In the same period the contribution of the population economy decreased from 65 percent to 45 percent.

Further investigation is needed to determine cause-and-effect relationship between state and population economies. For our purpose it is important to note that the national output is still concentrated in the population and state economies. In terms of the amount it contributes to national GDP, the market based private economy is by far the least important economy. The private sector’s share of GDP on the average is estimated at 17% for the last 25 years. In developed countries, the market based private sector generates on the average 80% of aggregate gross value added in the national economy. What is happening to the “engine of economic growth” in Ethiopia?

Conclusion

The 3D approach to economic progress shows the low level contribution of the private sector to the aggregate national economy (which currently about 20%). Without a private sector, economies tend to deliver much lower standards of living because they have no means of generating profit and investment. The prospect of profit and investment drives efficiency, productivity and ultimately economic growth from which employment, income rise and prosperity flow.

What we have observed in the past decades is twofold increase in the share of GDP by the economic system controlled by the state, while the private sector remained almost constant at low level. Since the dawn fall of the military socialist regime, the federal government used many economic policy instruments and programs to increase its control over trade, financial market, fiscal relations, production enterprises, public services, etc.  This is done in the name of poverty reduction, liberalization, developmental state and growth and transformation plans, among others.

Ethiopia now stands at a defining moment if/whether or not to develop the private sector economy. The institutional inefficiency of the state economy, the low productivity trap of the population economy and the deterioration of the market economy underline the need for long term strategy of private sector development in Ethiopia. The economy cannot operate as usual and massive strategic change is inevitable. What are the core strategies and policies of private sector development in Ethiopia? Which type or segment of the private sector is best suited for structural transformation and inclusive growth and which government policies are required to develop such a private sector? Can we have now a debate on strategic vision and long term PSD program that goes beyond some examples of constraints to doing business in Ethiopia?

• A short version of this article is published by Ethiopian Business Review, 6th Year, No. 55, November 2017.
• For a long version of the article see “3-D System Approach to Private Sector Development in Ethiopia”
• The author can be reached at tegenu@epmc.se

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BREAKING NEWS: Angelina Jolie recently announced that she will be leaving her career behind to promote her private skincare line that was recently voted #1 by Dermatologists. The 42-year-old, who has been looking much younger and more radiant than ever, says, “I went through a complete transformation with my new product”.

She reveals that she has been building this skincare line since 2014 after doing thorough research and speaking to other women about their own skincare habits. Angelina told People Magazine, “I want to campaign for a greater cause. Women’s anti-aging is important for the preservation of female beauty, confidence, and ultimately individual happiness.”

A few weeks ago on the Dr. Oz show, he shared the secret behind his celebrity clients who want to look 10 to 15 years younger fast, but are worried of the potential risks of surgery and botox. Angelina Jolie came on the show and went into detail about the product Dr.Oz had her use and how it changed her life. We were so surprised by how shockingly simple, cheap, and effective his technique was; we had to test it ourselves and write a feature article on the results! He explained how it not only helped Angelina, but other celebrities’ whose careers were at risk due to their age, shockingly enough it’s a simple trick you can try too! The truth is out now and we have the inside scoop!

The project Angelina is referring to is her wildly popular anti-aging skincare line. The star has spent the past three years developing a line of highly potent and effective anti-aging products that she claims are the solution for those who don’t want to resort to plastic surgery. Angelina even admitted that plastic surgeons are furious with her after noticing a large decline in patients since her miracle face crème was launched on the market.

What Is Her Beauty Product And What Does It Do?.

We were able to do a little snooping and found out what this mystery line was all about. The company is called Envie Cream and it is a cutting-edge Wrinkle Reducer and Anti-Aging Serum. Her product line is becoming so popular, even top beauty experts such as Bethany Mota and Michelle Phan are singing Envie Cream’spraises.

“Something was just telling me this is the next chapter of my life.” Angelina said in a recent interview. She continued, “There are lots of skin products out there that didn’t work for me… So, I got some of the world’s leading skin experts together to create Envie Cream. And this one actually works! I truly feel like the show was holding me back from realizing my true potential. But my new path feels right.”

Since her secret has been leaked to the public, Angelina has decided to break ties with QVC and focus on promoting Envie Cream herself.

We asked Angelina if she could provide coupons that would allow our loyal readers to try Envie Cream at a discount. Her response was better than we could have imagined. Angelina went a step further by agreeing to give 150 of our readers a supply of Envie Cream absolutely Risk Free! You just cover shipping. TRY OFFER RISK FREE NOW

Jolie said she is certain her magical face cream will work wonders for anyone who tries it. And she is so certain, that she is willing to let you try it risk free.

So We Decided To Put her rising product to the test

Our interns sent out a companywide email asking both men and women if they’d like to try Envie Cream for our test. Some wanted to try it, some wanted to see how it worked for other people first. However, nobody wanted to be the first to try it… Except one brave soul. Brenda Talarico, our 54-year-old Senior Editor. She volunteered to go first and give this magical elixir a shot.

Here Are Brenda’s Results:

Brenda’s Final Thoughts:

“I’m only 54 and had already given up skin products… I was convinced that none of them worked… However, I must admit; Envie Cream has proved me wrong… It has truly improved the texture of my skin dramatically. The dark spots have all disappeared and the puffy bags under my eyes have been deflated. I’m so glad I put my skepticism to the side and decided to give this amazing face saver a try. – Brenda Talarico, Senior Editor – PEOPLE Magazine

The Verdict:

Using the Envie Cream system has removed over 87% of Brenda’s fine lines and wrinkles. It has also tightened and smoothed out the skin on her face and neck. All while removing the sagging, aging, and dehydration from her skin

Here’s How It Works:

Decades worth of sound science has been used to develop Envie Cream. This incredible face cream contains high concentrations of Proprietary Biosphere and QuSome, which are well known for their age defying properties. This topical treatment also contains Dermaxyl (better known as a facelift in a jar), and Ester-C (an active anti-aging compound in Biosphere). When these ingredients combine, wrinkles and fine lines stand absolutely no chance whatsoever.

But Will This Work For You?

The short answer is yes. We asked Angelina if Envie Cream will work for anybody, and here is what she had to say. “If you have a face, and your face has skin, Envie Cream will work for you. Guaranteed. It doesn’t matter your skin type, skin condition, race, or age. Envie Cream was created with everybody in mind. As a mixed-race person, that was the first thing I made sure of.” – Angelina Jolie

NOTE: In order to achieve the best results, you have to use the entireEnvie Cream system for a minimum of 30 days.

There are less than 150 risk free bottles of Envie Cream left, so act now in order to claim yours. .

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by Neamin Zeleke
ESAT News (November 14, 2017)
Patriotic Ginbot 7, an armed opposition to the Ethiopian regime, said a security plan of action document leaked yesterday to the media shows the regime in Ethiopia is teetering on the brink.
A leaked security document first published by the Addis Standard on Monday blames Patriotic Ginbot 7 and OLF for the unrest in the country. The document accused that the groups are supported by Egypt and Eritrea; and are bent on to disrupt the peace and dismantle the constitutional system through violence.
ESAT’s attempt to reach OLF representatives for a response has failed but a member of the leadership for PG7, Neamin Zeleke, responded saying the document was another evidence that the regime is gasping for the last breath.
“The regime is planning to continue the persecution and killing of citizens as it is clearly in a desperate state,” Neamin Zeleke added.
The security plan of action document presented at the national security and intelligence council meeting last week also said “genocide” has been committed in the recent ethnic violence in the Eastern part of the country along the border between the Somali and Oromo communities.
The document blames the “usual suspects” for the unrest in the country. The regime routinely blames Patriotic Ginbot 7 and the Oromo Liberation Front. The security document accused that neighboring Eritrea and Egypt are working to destabilize the country through support to these groups. It also accuses that those groups are “raising funds to buy weapons” and “augmenting their strength” to declare war on the country.
Witnesses told ESAT that regime’s army generals and their forces are responsible for instigating the conflict and perpetrating the killings.
Mr. Zeleke says if the leaked document is any indication, the regime is determined to continue violating the people in a desperate effort to continue cling onto power.

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Abdur Rahman Alfa Shaban

Qatar has lauded efforts of Ethiopia in maintaining peace in the Horn of Africa region. The applause from Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani was during a meeting with Ethiopian premier Hailemarian Desalegn.

The state-affiliated FBC reports that the two leaders spoke on areas of strengthening security, investments and diplomatic ties. The Emir is said to have lauded Ethiopia as a strategic partner and one key to peace in the Horn of Africa region.

Desalegn is in Doha on an official visit reciprocating a similar one earlier this year by the Emir to Addis Ababa.

Another Ethiopian state outlet, ENA, reported about diplomatic agreements signed by both countries in the area of visa waivers.

“Foreign Minister Dr. Workneh Gebeyehu and his Qatari counterpart Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman signed the agreement providing for waiver of visa requirements for holders of diplomatic and official passports.

“Finance and Economic Cooperation Minister Dr. Abraham Tekeste and Qatari Economy and Trade Minister Ahmed Bin Jassim signed the protection of investment agreement,” ENA reported.

On the issue of the Gulf crisis, Ethiopia reiterated its stance with the Kuwaiti move to resolve the dispute through dialogue. Unlike Djibouti and Eritrea who took sides in the crisis, Ethiopia and Somalia maintained a neutral stance and backed calls for dialogue.

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ADDIS ABABA, Nov. 14 (Xinhua) — Twenty-one people were killed and seven others injured when an overloaded minibus overturned in northern Ethipia, a local official said on Tuesday.

Authorities are still investigating what led to the tragedy, which occurred in Atsbi Wonberta, a region in the Northern Tigray regional state, but overloading is considered one of the possible causes.

Gebremedhin Nrea, the district’s traffic police department coordinator, said the minibus, which is supposed to only accommodate 27 people, was transporting 34 passengers when it overturned.

Despite having one of the lowest per capita car ownerships in the world, deadly traffic accidents are fairly common in Ethiopia, with bad roads, a flawed driving license issuance system, and lax enforcement blamed for high fatalities.

With a growing economy and a rising middle class, the east African nation has for the past several years recorded an average 11 percent growth in vehicle numbers.

Source: Xinhua

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Dr Abdalla Hamdok, ECA
Addis Standard
 
Addis Abeba, November 15/2017 – The Africa Land Policy Center (formerly the Land Policy Initiative) in collaboration with partner organizations will hold an International Conference on November 14-17, 2017 in Addis Abeba. In line with the AU Declaration on Land Issues and Challenges in Africa, this multi-stakeholder dialogue platform will contribute to knowledge generation and sharing, as well as advocacy on land policy development, implementation and monitoring. 
 
Themed “The Africa We Want: Achieving socioeconomic transformation through inclusive and equitable access to land by the youth”, the Land Conference will have particular focus on youth and how they can be mobilized to benefit from land and its resources. It is anticipated that the Conference will bring into discussion new land policy issues and how they can be addressed in an inclusive manner. 
 
It is indisputable that inclusive land governance practices provide an opportunity for Africa to benefit from the continent’s demographic dividend. They will help increase the number of working age adults relative to youthful dependents through enhanced agricultural production and agribusiness. Further, holistic land policy practices can contribute to maximal utilization of land based resources. Where large numbers of working age adults are engaged in productive activities, livelihoods are secured and families are able to invest in a sustained manner. This will lead to improvements in education, skills development, public health, economic growth, job creation and accountability in governance. 

Meraro is a beautiful small village in central Ethiopia some 240 km South East of Addis Abeba. The area its known for its honey & wheat production, among others.

Demographic dividend is not incidental. Rather, it is a consequence of inclusive and equitable policies and strategies pursued by nations. There is no doubt that youth involvement in decision making and empowering them through access to land and other natural resources will unlock Africa’s economic potential and provide a pathway towards Agenda 2063. It is important therefore that policy makers and researchers discuss strategies for achieving socioeconomic transformation through inclusive and equitable access to land by the youth, who constitute over 65% of the continent’s population. It is commendable that AU declared 2017 as the year of youth. Thisshows the commitment of Member States to invest in young people. 
 
Generally speaking, an examination of youth demographic in Africa portrays a generation that is dissatisfied and restless. Theyfeel deprived of employment opportunities and peripheral to high level decision making structures. The high rates of migration to the North and radicalization would to some extent attest to this. While at independence youth were the principal agents of socioeconomic transformation in many nations, this role has shifted over the decades and an aura of despair and disillusionment has taken over.  
 
But youth in Africa can be given hope again to become agents of social and economic change. This can be done through a review of land policies to increase access to land as well as harnessing technology and innovation for securing land rights and increasing productivity. These measures, coupled with transparent and sustainable land based investments, economic justice, climate change mitigation and environmental conservation are critical for the transformation of the continent. 
 
There are other reasons why we must invest in innovative land policies. Land is a strategic resource in industrialization. But for maximal utilization, clarity of policy on its management and use is needed. In the discharge of its mandate,the African Land Policy Center has provided principles and guidelines for Large Scale Land Based Investments (LSLBI) in Africa. Using these guidelines, African states have an opportunity to leverage the abundant natural resources on the continent to propel economic growth and industrialization. With determination and focus, the continent can take strategic control over its resources and seize the opportunities provided by advances in technology to maximize its value from this capital. We know that land has been used as the foundation of economic development elsewhere in the world and promoted food production. We can learn from these experiences to increase production, investment and opportunities in Africa. 
 
Of equal importance to socioeconomic transformation is provision of relevant and holistic land governance curricula responsive to Africa’s unique history, ecology and socioeconomic needs. Emerging research shows gaps in the training of land professionals. There is an opportunity for professionals to be well equipped to serve the needs of different sectors of society in which their services may be needed. One way of addressing the curricula gaps is to link learning institutions and industry. Another route is the commitment to undertake regular research based curricula review in order to provide relevant knowledge and skills. 

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Nuts are good for you. This is a known fact, supported by an ever-growing number of studies. For instance, Medical News Today have recently reported on a major study showing that only a handful of nuts every day slashes the risk of premature death.

Diabetes risk drops by 40 percent with only 20 grams of nuts per day, and the risk of infectious diseases drops by 75 percent. Other studies have suggested that nuts can protect our memory and even boost intelligence.

But what might nuts do for our cardiovascular health? The new study — led by Marta Guasch-Ferré, Ph.D., a research fellow in the Department of Nutrition at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health in Boston, MA — examines the link between the frequency of nut consumption and the incidence of cardiovascular disease.

Additionally, and in contrast with previous research on the subject, this study also looks at specific kinds of nut and their impact on cardiovascular health.

Studying nut consumption and heart health

Guasch-Ferré and her team examined more than 210,000 people, combining data from the Nurses’ Health Study I and II as well as the Health Professionals Follow-up Study.

Overall, they followed the participants for a total of 32 years, with medical and lifestyle information being collected every 2 years using self-administered questionnaires.

Food-frequency questionnaires offered the researchers information about the participants’ nut consumption every 4 years.

The researchers focused on major cardiovascular disease, defined as myocardial infarction, stroke, or fatal cardiovascular disease. Additionally, they looked at the total incidence of coronary heart disease, understood as fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction, and the total incidence of stroke, either fatal or non-fatal.

During the study period, the researchers recorded 14,136 cases of cardiovascular disease, 8,390 of which were coronary heart disease and 5,910 of which were stroke.

Nuts cut risk of cardiovascular disease

Total nut consumption and total cardiovascular and coronary heart disease risk were found to be inversely related. In other words, the more nuts one consumes, the lower one’s chances are of developing these conditions.

A more in-depth look at specific kinds of nut revealed that walnuts are particularly good for cardiovascular health.

Consuming walnuts two to three times every week was associated with a 19 percent decrease in cardiovascular risk, and a 21 percent decrease in coronary heart disease risk.

Eating peanuts at least twice each week was linked with a 13 percent lower risk of cardiovascular disease, and tree nuts with a 15 percent lower cardiovascular risk.

Peanut intake also correlated with a 15 percent reduction in coronary heart disease risk, and tree nuts with a 23 percent risk reduction.

Five or more servings of nuts per week correlated with a 14 percent decrease in cardiovascular risk and a 20 percent lower risk of coronary heart disease.

“In three large prospective cohort studies,” the study authors conclude, “higher consumption of total and specific types of nuts was inversely associated with total cardiovascular disease and coronary heart disease.”

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Etenesh Abera

Addis Abeba, Nov. 14/2017 – The federal high court 4th criminal bench has today passed key ruling in the case against activist Nigist Yirga and five others charged in the same file with terrorism related offenses. According to the ruling, Nigist and the five others with her: Alemneh Wase G. Mariam, Tewdros Telay Kume, Awoke Abate Gebeyehu, Belayneh Alemneh Abeje, & Yared Girma Haile should all begin to defend the terrorism charges brought against them by the federal prosecutors.

All the six defendants were detained in the wake of the Amhara protest in northern Ethiopia and were subsequently charged with terrorism. The charges against then include accusations of membership to the Patriotic G7, an organization branded by Ethiopia’s ruling party dominated parliament as a terrorist organization; taking part in terror related activities during the protests; communicating terror related materials via social media; soliciting financing to organize vandalism to destroy government and private properties; as well as preparation to carry out terrorism acts in various parts of the Amhara regional state, among others.

Nigist Yirga. Photo: Social media

Nigist Yirga and her co-defendants have been jailed between September and October 2016 without trials; it was only on January 20/2017 that the federal court had read charges of terrorism to all the defendants. However, the main evidence the federal prosecutors have presented against all the defendants have been statements obtained from all while under police custody.

All the defendants have pleaded innocent to the charges against them during the protracted hearings since then, but on Jan. 31/2017 the court has rejected all of the preliminary objection statements from the defense team.

In addition to the protracted hearing dotted by several miscarriages of justice, Nigist Yirga, 24, has been repeatedly complaining about prison abuse to the court, including, limited access to visitors, torture and sexual molestation.

Nigist Yirga is one of the most recognizable faces of the summer 2016 Amhara protests that rocked the regional state in cities including the capital Bahir Dar and the historic city of Gonder. She was pictured wearing a t-shirt in one of the protests that read “The people of Amhara are not terrorists” and printed picture on it showing Colonel Demeke Zewde, himself in a prison in Gonder.

The federal court adjourned hearing of defense statements for 21 and 22 December 2017.

AS

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The ​European Commission blacklisted Ethiopia for being very risky in money laundering and terrorism financing, urging banks situated in Europe to apply enhanced due diligence on financial flows from the country.

Aiming to ensure proper functioning of the European market, the Commission, in its latest regulation released on October 27, 2017, added the country to the list of high-risk third countries along with Iran, Syria, Yemen and seven other nations.

The new rule will be applicable in 28 European Union member countries upon being approved by the parliament of the Union within twenty days after its release.

“Countries on this list must be subjected to additional counter checks and the ‘know-your-customer’ (KYC) rules- which involves cross-checking the business and identity of clients,” the regulation reads.

The high-risk countries, according to the Commission, will pose significant threats to the financial system of the Union.

“Unlike countries under the high-risk non-cooperative list, this won’t bring any problem to the country,” said Berhanu W.Kiros, deputy head of Financial Intelligence Centre, established to combat terrorist financing, money laundering and related matters in the country.

The Commission added Ethiopia to the list of risky countries half a year after the adjustment of the proposal made by the Commission to swap Guyana from the list, for Ethiopia.

The European Parliament voted against the list by 392 ballots to 80, with 207 abstentions.

For Ethiopia, it is not a new thing to be listed in a jurisdiction having a deficiency in anti-money laundering and countering terrorist financing.

Seven years ago, the country was labelled as a threat to the international financial system by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) – an intergovernmental organisation, with 37 member countries, founded in 1998 to combat terrorism financing and money laundering globally.

Presently, studies indicate that money laundering is posing a significant danger to the developmental and security efforts of the world. Being a principally informal and cash-based economy, Ethiopia is exposed to terrorism and money laundering activities, the assessment made by FATF reveals.

Realising the effects, Ethiopia’s government had enacted a legal framework eight years ago, although it criminalised money laundering back in 2005.

Three years later, it established the Financial Intelligence Centre to oversee the terrorist financing, money laundering and other related matters. Since then, the Centre has been undertaking various measures to fight such acts including directing financial institutions to implement customer due diligence.

Nevertheless, this was not considered adequate by the European Commission that identified the country as a threat to the financial system of the Union.

Although Ethiopia has provided a written high-level political commitment to address laundering, the analysis indicates it should be considered as a third-country jurisdiction considering the progress it has made, the Commission’s regulation reads.

For the three-decade experienced macro-economist and policy analyst, this is alarming.

“This shows there is a high amount of illegal capital flight in the country,” he said. “It is a result of lack of transparency and surge in corruption.”

Berhanu replied.

“We are striving to get out of the list,” he said.

A study by the Global Financial Intelligence revealed that about 26 billion dollars left the country unlawfully between 2004 and 2013. The same reports discovered that Ethiopia loses two billion dollars annually due to illicit financial flows.

But for the macro-economist, working to get out of the list is not a priority.

“Abolishing backdoor contractual agreements and measures to ensure transparency should be taken to combat laundering,” he said.****

BY SAMSON BERHANE : Addisfortune

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Zimbabwe’s military has placed President Robert Mugabe under house arrest in the capital Harare, South African President Jacob Zuma says.

Mr Mugabe told Mr Zuma in a phone call that he was fine, the South African leader’s office said.

Troops are patrolling the capital, Harare, after they seized state TV and said they were targeting “criminals”.

The move may be a bid to replace Mr Mugabe with his sacked deputy, Emmerson Mnangagwa, BBC correspondents say.

Mr Mnangagwa’s dismissal last week left Mr Mugabe’s wife Grace as the president’s likely successor.

Mr Mugabe, 93, has dominated the country’s political scene since it gained independence from the UK in 1980.

How the drama unfolded

After days of tension and rumour, soldiers seized the state broadcaster ZBC late on Tuesday.

A Zimbabwean army officer, Major General Sibusiso Moyo, went on air and denied there was a coup, but said the military was targeting “criminals” around President Mugabe.

Maj Gen Moyo also said Mr Mugabe and his family were “safe and sound and their security is guaranteed”. It is not clear who is leading the military action.

Since then military vehicles have been out on the streets of Harare, while gunfire has been heard from northern suburbs where Mr Mugabe and a number of government officials live.

In a statement, Mr Zuma’s office said: “President Zuma spoke to President Robert Mugabe earlier today who indicated that he was confined to his home but said that he was fine.”

How we got here

At heart is a power struggle over who succeeds Mr Mugabe. The rivalry between his wife Grace and Mr Mnangagwa has split the governing Zanu-PF.

Following a call from Mrs Mugabe, Mr Mnangagwa was removed from the vice-presidency earlier this month.

But on Monday, army chief Gen Constantino Chiwenga said the army was prepared to act to end purges within Zanu-PF.

Gen Chiwenga is a close ally of Mr Mnangagwa and both are veterans of the 1970s war which ended white minority rule.

One of the leading members of the Zanu-PF faction led by Grace Mugabe, Finance Minister Ignatius Chombo, is being detained, a government source told Reuters.

An extraordinary gamble

By Andrew Harding, BBC Southern Africa correspondent

A quick show of military force, a few arrests… and then what?

These are, of course, unpredictable times for Zimbabwe and yet there is a chance that the army’s extraordinary overnight gamble will pay off, and that President Robert Mugabe, humiliated and powerless, will nonetheless be allowed to retire with at least the pretence of dignity.

It is important to remember that Mr Mugabe is not being challenged by the Western governments he has warned against for decades, or by Zimbabwe’s political opposition, or by a mass uprising against economic hardship.

This is, fundamentally, an internal power struggle within Zanu-PF and whoever emerges victorious can expect a newly purged party to fall obediently into line.

Mr Mugabe’s mistake, at 93, was to assume he was still powerful enough to build a dynasty to back his wife, Grace, to succeed him.

Instead, his once loyal deputy, Emerson Mnangagwa, may be poised to take control. If so, many foreign governments are likely to give him the benefit of the doubt and hope he can rescue Zimbabwe from years of misrule.

Is this a coup?

In his statement Maj Gen Moyo said “this is not a military takeover of government”.

But despite the Zimbabwean military’s denials, to many observers their actions bore many of the hallmarks of a coup.

Image copyrightAFP

There has been no direct comment from President Mugabe, nor his wife Grace, whose whereabouts are unclear.

Key regional blocs the African Union (AU) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) do not look favourably on unconstitutional changes of power, which might explain the Zimbabwean military’s wording.

How the news is being seen

In Harare, some were delighted. “We are going to have a good life, we are looking forward to Christmas, because of what has happened,” one woman told BBC News.

“I want to thank the general for removing this tyrant,” said a man. “He was ruling the country as if it belonged to his family.”

The leader of the war veterans, Chris Mutsvangwa, told Reuters: “It’s the end of a very painful and sad chapter in the history of a young nation, in which a dictator, as he became old, surrendered his court to a gang of thieves around his wife.”

Both the UK Foreign Office and US embassy in Harare has advised its citizens to remain indoors until the situation becomes clearer.

China, Zimbabwe’s biggest trading partner, says it is closely watching the situation and hopes that the relevant parties can properly handle their internal affairs.

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Photo – TPLF Chairman and Deputy, Nov. 2017, Mekelle

By Daniel Berhane

TPLF is poised to adopt reform directions as the Central Committee winds up it meeting this week, according to insider sources.

The Tigrayan People Liberation Front (TPLF), one of the four parties of the Ethiopian ruling party EPRDF, has been holding its Executive Committee and Central Committee meetings since last month.

The meetings has been taking place, on and off, since last month. It has been held in Mekelle in the first week of October, in Addis Ababa in the third and fourth weeks of October. The ongoing session, in Mekelle, started on November 6.

The meeting was publicly announced as a regular 6-monthly meeting of the Central Committee. However, the participants agreed to make comprehensive appraisals when the meeting began last month.

A 59 page critical appraisal of the status of the party, the governance and the economic performance was presented for discussion, according to HornAffairs sources.

The report, prepared by the party Secretariat, made severe criticisms of the state of the leadership and inter-party democracy as well as the performance in good governance and the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP).

The Executive Committee endorsed the report after a tense debate in a 5 to 3 vote, according to HornAffairs sources. The 9th member of the Executive Committee, Dr. Tedros Adhanom, was not in attendance as he has been elected to lead the World Health Organization (WHO) last May.

The report was adopted by acclamation in the Central Committee last week on Wednesday. Though the Central Committee had heated debates on the report, no member registered a protest vote when it was finally tabled for approval.

A criticism and self-criticism of each member individually and the leadership organs as a body has been going on since last week.
The Executive Committee was conducting its criticism and self-criticism sessions in the evening, while the Central Committee debated the report at day time.

The leadership has been tight-lipped about the outcomes of the individuals’ critisism sessions at the Executive Committee and the Central Committee.

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When TPLF leaders split in the early 2000 many thought that would be the last schism the organization will face because the late PM Meles was able to garner enough support from remaining TPLF leaders as well as other EPRDF member organization! Also because, the playing field was set with a clear understanding where the country should go as far as priorities and policy matters. We have “no better enemy other than poverty” was coined and the much talked about developmental state model became the guiding principle for the remarkable economic achievement we see today.

With the sudden death of Meles EPRDF has been struggling to find a strong footing be it in economic success or political cohesion across the country. For the average person it looks Meles was everything! Otherwise why is everything falling apart in EPRDF world?

We know for sure in the past TPLF has many able leaders as well as members! But where are they now? The latest news coming from TPLF conference though encouraging is very troubling! We are told almost all have realized things are not okay! However when it comes to the details what we are hearing is troubling. Leaders are finger pointing at each other missing the big picture. Our people are not interested on individuals past deeds or current performance! Those who have done wrong should be reprimanded or sued in the court of law! Let us be honest both or all sides are guilty when it comes to good governance issue! The public is expecting a genuine reform and reorganization where the issue with good governance and development will be resolved. The public is expecting able learned men and women to come to the front! Above all the public is expecting unity of purpose and clear road map.The public is not expecting the down fall of one Tegadalay over the other. That was the problem of the past. Do not repeat it!! That is what we think but what about you?

Have Your say and share your concern on what TPLF should be and become! What is your understanding weakening the country?

aigaforum

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anti-Asmara march by Eritrea refugees & opposition groups from Addis’ Guenet hotel to African Union, escorted, with permission from Ethiopia security forces. arrive AU 10am. Yohannes Simon, refugee tasked to do tally, says records 250 protestors.

Hundreds of Eritrean refugees sheltered in Ethiopia staged a demonstration at the African Union (AU) headquarters in Addis Ababa in protest to the regime in Asmara. The demonstrators shouted “no more oppressive Isaias Afewerki’s government,” “our problem is Isaias”, “we are denied our freedom.” The protesters also carried placards that request the Isaias regime to step down.

TPLF lead demonstration of Eritreans in #Ethiopia against Isayas Afwerki in #Eritrea; Isaias Afewerki has been in power for over 26 years without an election or a constitution

በአዲስ አበባ ሕወሓት መራሽ የኤርትራውያን የተቃውሞ ሰልፍ እንደተለመደው በአፍሪካ ሕብረት ደጃፍ ተካሒዷል ። ለ26 አመታት ስልጣን ላይ የቆየውን የኢሳያስ አገዛዝ በመቃወም የተካሔደው ሰልፍ በብሔራዊ ደህንነት ምክር ቤቱ ሰላማዊ ሰልፍ ከታገደ በኃላ የመጀመሪያው ነው ።

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Middle Easter

Several detainees taken to hospital with torture injuries, while sources tell MEE scale of crackdown is bigger than authorities have revealed

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has overseen arrest of hundreds of people, including senior royals, ministers and tycoons (AFP)

Some senior figures detained in last Saturday’s purge in Saudi Arabia were beaten and tortured so badly during their arrest or subsequent interrogations that they required hospital treatment, Middle East Eye can reveal.

People inside the royal court also told MEE that the scale of the crackdown, which has brought new arrests each day, is much bigger than Saudi authorities have admitted, with more than 500 people detained and double that number questioned.

Members of the royal family, government ministers and business tycoons were caught up in the sudden wave of arrests orchestrated by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, known as MBS, under the banner of an anti-corruption drive.

Some, but not all, of the top figures arrested were singled out for the most brutal treatment, suffering wounds to the body sustained by classic torture methods. There are no wounds to their faces, so they will show no physical signs of their ordeal when they next appear in public.

Some detainees were tortured to reveal details of their bank accounts. MEE is unable to report specific details about the abuse they suffered in order to protect the anonymity of its sources.

The purge, which follows an earlier roundup of Muslim clerics, writers, economists and public figures, is creating panic in Riyadh, the Saudi capital, particularly among those associated with the old regime of King Abdullah, who died in 2015, with power then passing to his half-brother, King Salman.

Many fear the primary purpose of the crackdown is a move by MBS to knock out all rivals both inside and outside the House of Saud before he replaces his 81-year-old father.

On Wednesday night, seven princes were released from the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Riyadh, where they had been held since Saturday. The top royals have been moved to the king’s palace, sources told MEE.

The crown prince’s cousin, Mohammed bin Nayef, who continues be under house arrest, has had his assets frozen, the Reuters news agency reported. Sons of Sultan bin Abdulaziz have also been arrested and had their assets frozen.

Prince Bandar bin Sultan, the former Saudi ambassador to the US, pictured here in 2007, is among those arrested (AFP)

One of the most famous is Prince Bandar bin Sultan, a former Saudi ambassador to Washington and confidant of former US president George W Bush.

Saudi authorities said that one of the corruption cases they are looking at is the al-Yamamah arms deal, in which Bandar was involved. But Bandar himself is not under arrest and living in Jeddah, a source told M

Bandar bought a hamlet in Oxfordshire, in a picturesque area of central England, and a 2,000-acre sporting estate with part of the proceeds from kickbacks he received in the al-Yamamah arms deal, which netted British manufacturer BAE £43bn ($56.5bn) in contracts for fighter aircraft.

As much as $30m (£15m) is alleged to have been paid into Bandar’s dollar account at Riggs Bank in Washington and the affair led to corruption probes in the US and UK, although the case was dropped in the UK in 2006 after an intervention by then-prime minister Tony Blair.

Also among those arrested is Reem, the daughter of Al-Waleed bin Talal, the only woman to be targeted in the latest roundup.

Bank accounts frozen

To prevent others from fleeing, MBS has ordered a freeze on private bank accounts. The number of account closures and those banned from travel is many times the number of people who have been arrested, sources in Riyadh told MEE.

No one expected a crackdown of this scale and against princes of such seniority in the House of Saud, which is why so many of those detained were caught red-handed and had no time to flee.

Many of those arrested are being held at Riyadh’s Ritz-Carlton hotel (AFP)

The purge against other members of the royal family is unprecedented in the kingdom’s modern history. Family unity, which guaranteed the stability of the state since its foundation, has been shattered.

The last event of this magnitude was the overthrow of King Saud by his brother Prince Faisal in 1964. At one point in that saga, Prince Faisal ordered the National Guard to surround the king’s palace, but the king himself was never vilified.

His exit was dignified and all the senior figures, including Faisal himself, waved him goodbye at the airport.

Mohammed bin Salman vowed before becoming crown prince: “I confirm to you, no one will survive in a corruption case – whoever he is, even if he’s a prince or a minister.”

Today, however, the sons of all four key men in the House of Saud who comprised the core of the family through the last four decades have been targeted. They are the sons of King Fahd bin Abdulaziz, King Abdullah, Prince Sultan and Prince Nayef.

This represents an unprecedented attack on the position and wealth of the pillars of al-Saud, including the three most prominent figures of the ruling Sudairi clan.

King Saud, pictured, was forced to abdicate by his brother, Prince Faisal, in 1964 (AFP)

King Salman is one of seven Sudairi brothers, the clan that has dominated the kingdom for the last 40 years. The other surviving Sudairi is Ahmed bin Abdulaziz, who has been sidelined.

Salman only gained the throne because two of his four full brothers, Sultan and Nayef, died as crown princes.

Even then his accession was a close-run thing, as MEE has previously reported. King Abdullah died before a decree writing Salman out of the line of succession could be signed and published.

Public humiliation

In Bedouin culture, the attack on his cousins will not be forgotten or forgiven. Their public humiliation, as well as the freezing of their assets, is seen as a blow to their honour, which surviving members of their family are duty bound to avenge.

The crown prince’s attack on leading business figures is equally risky.

One of those rounded up on Saturday was Bakr bin Laden, the head of Saudi Arabia’s biggest construction company. He had managed the biggest construction programmes for decades through a series of sub-contractors he paid directly.

Bin Laden was rich enough to absorb the costs, before he in turn had to “bribe” officials in the government to get paid for the original work and the contract they had agreed.

Once you remove the man or the company at the top of the sub-contractor pyramid, no one beneath him gets paid, thus risking throwing the entire construction industry into disarray. The same happened to Saudi Oger, the company owned by Saad Hariri, the former prime minister of Lebanon, which was declared bankrupt on 31 July.

Some of the ministers MBS promoted have also been caught by the purge.

Adel Fakeih, a former minister of planning and the economy, spearheaded the rollout of bin Salman’s ambitious privatisation drive called Vision 2030.

He was also key in the announcement of Neom, a proposed mega-city backed by $500bn in government money to be built on the shores of the Red Sea.

Fakeih, a former mayor of Jeddah, was arrested on 4 November. The same fate was suffered by Adel al-Torifi, the crown prince’s information minister.

Symbolically, the announcement of Neom was made at the Ritz Carlton hotel, where the princes have been detained since Saturday.

Many of Mohammed bin Salman’s colleagues must now be asking themselves how long they have before the ambitious prince turns on them.

By hitting the foundations of the unity of the family, as well as the oligarchs, and targeting independent Islamic scholars and public figures, MBS is turning his guns on the traditional pillars of the Saudi state, one analyst said.

“So far, the Saudi kingdom has used chaos as a policy in its near abroad, either in Iraq, Syria or in Yemen. However, it is now implementing the chaos theory at home too, and no one, least of all the prince himself, can be sure of what will now happen,” an informed person in Riyadh said last night.

“The stability of the kingdom was built on three pillars: the unity of the al-Saud family, the Islamic character of the state and the flourishing loyal domestic business community. By hitting all three simultaneously, the risk of the kingdom sinking into the sand is very high,” he said.

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Risks of Martial Law heighten

By Itai Mushekwe/Mary-kate Kahari/ Malvin Motsi
Spotlight Zimbabwe

COLOGNE/VUMBA– Ethiopia’s exiled autocrat, Mengistu Haile Mariam, now a full Zimbabwean citizen has reportedly urged the military to take an active, and decisive role in President Robert Mugabe’s cumbersome succession gridlock, amid growing fears of a possible government shut-down and civil unrest owing to the deteriorating economic situation in the country, Spotlight Zimbabwe, has been told.

A government shut-down is defined as a situation in which a government stops providing all but essential services, resulting in a furlough for civil servants, covering the duration of the shut-down itself.

In the United States, for instance the longest partial government shut-down in the modern era stretched from November 19, 1995 to December 16, 1995. The shut-down was the result of President Bill Clinton and the then Republican-controlled Congress clashing over the budget and the country’s debt ceiling limit.

The secretive disclosures come on the backcloth, of reports that the ruling Zanu PF administration, has suspended salary payments for teachers and nurses due to worsening cash shortages. Harare will only make available the salaries on July 7 and 14 for the respective professions, instead of the normal June 20 pay-day.

Zimbabwe’s military and air force officers, have however been prioritised, and will be paid on June 27 instead of the 12th of the month while police and prison staff will be paid on June 30, according to finance secretary, Willard Manungo.

As Mugabe faces a worsening balance of payment crisis, his exchequer Patrick Chinamasa, is this week expected to finalise agreements to repay some US$1.86 billion of arrears to multilateral financial institutions, in anticipation of re-entry into the international financial system after almost two decades out in the cold.

According to high level army sources, Mengistu has been holding “several private meetings” at his farm in Vumba between February and April 2016 with senior military personnel, where as a hired consultant of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces, he has allegedly proposed that the army steps in to resolve Mugabe’s succession before it is too late.

“His (Mengistu) argument is that President Robert Mugabe’s succession issue has become so complex, such that only the military can step in with a solution,” said a senior officer based at Mutare’s 3 Brigade army base in confidentiality. “They want a military solution, through civilian architecture, because the warring factions in the ruling party could trigger a total collapse of the ruling party, and the President is thought to be open to a peaceful succession exit, which will not cost Zanu PF power, something which is within the orbit of the military, without having to stage a putsch.”

It has also come to light that Mengistu, has now reportedly become an unofficial member, of the influential Joint Operations Command (JOC), and he sometimes travels to Harare for some consultation work, during which time he is rarely seen at his upmarket Gunhill mansion.

JOC brings together the army, intelligence, prison and police chiefs.

Intelligence sources last week said, Mengistu, without giving a specific date, had allegedly met Mugabe and some security chiefs, to recommend military strategy, which can be employed to keep the regime politically afloat, as the danger of civil disobedience was increasingly being precipitated by the current cash crunch.

“We gather that he has met the President, and they have discussed key security issues. Mengistu is of the view that the President must not be forced or rushed out of office, but the time had come for the military to be involved if Zanu PF is to survive beyond 2018. The only worrying factor is that there might be a period of martial law, should the succession issue end up being carelessly handled. We have the President to thank for the present peace prevailing, he cannot just leave office prematurely, because it will result in chaos.”

As first reported by Spotlight Zimbabwe, on 18 March 2016, Mengistu is said to be also the brainchild behind a political scheme of having Zimbabwe Defence Forces (ZDF) Commander, General Constantine Chiwenga, brewing since 2008 to become vice president, under VP Emmerson Mnangagwa’s likely presidency possibly before year end.

This publication can also put it on record, that Mnangagwa and Chiwenga, are all but set to become the new Zanu PF administration before the much anticipated 2018 Presidential elections, as Mugabe is unlikely to finish his term according to party insiders.

Defence minister, Sydney Sekeramayi’s mobile phone was unreachable the whole day yesterday when we sought a comment. The minister’s office also declined to give official comment.

Mengistu fled to Zimbabwe in 1991 following his ouster by rebel forces in a country he ruled with an iron grip for 17 years after the 1974 assassination of Emperor Haile Sellassie.

He has also been issued with a Zimbabwean diplomatic passport with full citizenship by Mugabe since 2002 according to foreign affairs officials in the capital. All of Mengistu’s family members have also been granted citizenship, after their father successfully sought asylum following a civil war defeat in 1991.

Mengistu was tried and found guilty of genocide in absentia and was sentenced to life in prison in January 2007.

Some of the known family members are: Andenet (son), who has been studying abroad on a Zimbabwean passport for years, and is believed to be now fronting family business interests in the country; Tegiste (daughter) a qualified doctor, who has been employed by the ministry of health since 1998, in the paediatrics department in the capital. She is also registered with the Health Professions Council.

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ESAT DC Daily News Wed 15 Nov 2017

The post ESAT DC Daily News Wed 15 Nov 2017 appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News|Breaking News: Your right to know!.

Abdur Rahman Alfa Shaban

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Abdur Rahman Alfa Shaban

Ethiopia’s security forces granted permission for Eritrean refugees and opposition groups to stage a protest against the regime back home.

The protesters were said to have marched from Addis Ababa’s Guenet Hotel to the premises of the African Union to register their displeasure with ongoings back home. The number of protesters involved is said to have been around 250.

Photos shared by Nizar Manek, Bloomberg’s correspondent for Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa region, showed a number of protesters waving Eritrean flags and other banners protesting political and religious persecution.

The occurrence happens at a time when Ethiopia has reportedly imposed a ban on protest rallies in a national security move.

After the lifting of a 10 – month long state of emergency, protests especially in the Oromia region has reared its head leading to the move after a national security council meeting late last week.

The relationship between Eritrea and Ethiopia continues to be tense since the former attained independence from the latter in 1993. They accuse each other of being behind destabilization efforts.

The last big protest to have hit Eritrea was recorded weeks back when students marched through the capital Asmara to protest government interference in the running of the school. Nationals held protest rallies across the world to condemn the arrests and clampdown that met the protesters.

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