By Mohamed Farah Abdi
on Ethiomedia.
For the record, I wrote a short piece on Somaliland Times in the 1990s why Somaliland should be recognized as an independent nation if we follow Eritrea independence mechanism or criteria. Both of them have similar history. The only difference is the Arab Tyrants card of United Somalia a member of Arab League got the upper hand at United Nations.
We know that Somaliland has not yet been recognized as an independent nation like Eritrea and Somalia which is recovering from tribal war is under the African Union protection as we speak. Somalia will not accept the independence of Somaliland while itself is divided as a “Federal”weak states makes it even more difficult to come with one voice let alone be a military threat.
Ethiopia which has immersed itself into Somalia militarily since 2006 is doing its best to create Somalia which is weak. The regime in Ethiopia itself is weak from self inflicted Tribal Federation it has legalized since 1995.
Tribal Kilils/States like Oromia and Ogaden are calling for “self administration” and many in the Diaspora Egypt backed are calling for declaration of Oromo Republic. Landlocked Ethiopia natural enemies who would like to exploit this division are seen by many Ethiopians as mortal enemies.
Ethiopia during the battle of Adwa in 1896 faced similar “neighbors” like the one facing now. Italy occupied Eritrea is now Free Eritrea by unfriendly Isaias who has a bold idea for uniting Somalia like the Arab tyrants.
Somaliland was under British colonialism and the rest of Somalia under Italian colonialism. French Somalialnd or Djibouti under France. Ethiopia was surrounded by European foreign powers to subjugate her. The difference then and now is Ethiopia has King/Emeye Menelik who rally its people to fight foreign aggressors using the port of Djibouti.
France was jocking to extend its influence beyond tiny Djibouti and Menelik has to be friendly with France to import weapons to fight the foreign aggressors. The current regime is playing similar game with Somaliland at Berbera.
Tiny Djibouti is now a military station for foreign powers, USA, France, China etc. Any of this country has an influence on what Ethiopia import do defend itself. That means Ethiopia national security is under “Unfriendly”countries. Their interest can change depending the ruling power in Addis Ababa. Ethiopia can be blackmailed easily.
The situation in Somaliland is not different from Djibouti. The only difference is Djibouti is internationally recognized country. She can do what she wants legally. Somaliland is in difficult position but no one can stop the current military base agreement with UAE.
Somaliland and the Ethiopian regime has been friendly since 1991. Landlocked Ethiopia can not use the port of Assab because of the 1998-2000 war and it seems unlikely things can change in the near future. That is where the port of Berbera becomes very crucial.
Until the relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea changed for the benefit of the two people which has more in common than separate them the value of Berbera both in economic and military terms remains important.
Ethiopia which is now weak divided into Tribal Kilils has to tackle her problem and come out strong like she did 121 years ago. Defeating fascism followed by federation with Eritrea under King Haileselassie that brought peace and regional stability for more than four decades.
Horn of Africa will not prosper in division and conflict. Outside forces should not be allowed to export religious war into our region like they did in Middle East. Horn of Africa does not need Saudi/UAE and Iran supported conflicts in our land like the one unfolding in Yemen. Horn of Africa should not be Yemen.
UAE and Saudi Arabia move should always be checked because their Dollar is not clean. The only way to come and check foreign forces is for Ethiopia and Eritrea to use all their resources including port for the benefit of their growing population which will increase dramatically in the coming decades. Ethiopia and Eritrea survival can only be guaranteed by Bold and Visionary leaders who took a valuable lesson from our Disunity following the 1998-2000 Stupid War.