African leaders at the 4th High-Level Meeting on Disaster Risk Reduction. Photo by United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR).

On Thursday, January 12, United States (US) president Donald Trump referred to Haiti, El Salvador, and some African countries as a “shithole” during a bi-partisan meeting on immigration at the Oval Office in Washington D.C. (US). According to lawmakers at the meeting, Trump said:

Why are we having all these people from shithole countries come here?

The US president’s undignified comment immediately sparked international condemnation, including surprisingly humorous reactions from African netizens who used Trump’s ‘shithole’ remark as an opportunity to air grievances on the lack of good governance in many of their respective African countries.

Rupert Colville, a spokesman for the United Nations High Commission for Human Rights described the statement as “racist:”

These are shocking and shameful comments from the President of the United States. There is no other word one can use but ‘racist’… You cannot dismiss entire countries and continents as ‘shitholes’, whose entire populations, who are not white, are therefore not welcome…It’s about opening the door to humanity’s worst side, about validating and encouraging racism and xenophobia that will potentially disrupt and destroy lives of many people.

The Botswana government “summoned the US ambassador to Botswana to express its displeasure at the alleged utterances made by President of the US, Donald Trump:”

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Botswana Government@BWGovernment

PRESS RELEASE |Botswana condemns remarks made by President Trump @VensonMoitoi @MIACBW @OfficialMasisi

2:59 AM – Jan 12, 2018

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Trump tried to reduce the impact of his comment by denying it, stating it was “made up by Dems [Democrats]”:

African netizens took no time reacting to Trump’s comments. Although not justifying it, some assert that Trump’s statement is an indictment against the governments of many African nations:

James Proper, Ugandan contributor to Global Voices said:

The same sentiments were expressed by Ugo Agbaji, a Nigerian:

Kenyan netizen Daniel Makaya lampooned corruption and inept leaders in Africa:

Nigerian Kelvin Odanz was blunt:

Fellow Nigerian Onye Nkuzi’s tweet refers to the lack of justice in Nigeria for peoplemurdered by herdsmen on New Years Day in Benue State:

Steve Biko blamed Africa’s tribal politics:

Ghanaian Seraphic Herbsman advised Africans to save their outrage and work toward “turning our situation around:”

However, some Africans were infuriated by Trump’s comments. Ms. Nawande boldly states that “Trump is a shithole president:”

Nyaguthii wa Muriuki comments on American ignorance of Africa:

And Didi Angela reminded the world once again that Africa is a continent, not a country:

Gege, a Nigerian based in the United Kingdom, schooled the United States president to uphold the dignity of his office:

pic.twitter.com/cAlCKtbR21

— Zainab Bangurah (@bangurah_zainab) January 12, 2018

pic.twitter.com/PJNFmntiGZ

— Taiwo Obe (@araisokun) January 12, 2018

#leadership #shitholecountries #Trump #shihole pic.twitter.com/Jpfm3NJt67

— DORCAS ONYANGO (@DORCASONYANGO) January 12, 2018

The post Africans ‘School’ United States President on Good Governance After ‘Shithole’ Comment Sparks Global Outrage appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News|Breaking News: Your right to know!.

by Louse Aalen

Lovise Aalen questions the sincerity of the Ethiopian government’s promise to release political prisoners, and argues that this move is a result of internal power struggles, rather than the desire to improve the country’s reputation.

(Democracy in Africa) — The Ethiopian regime has surprised the world by stating that they will release political prisoners. This comes from a corner of the world where news about politics and human rights is normally of the bad kind. Human rights organisations like Amnesty hope this may signal the end of an era of bloody oppression in Ethiopia’s history. Others look at this as a desire to improve the international image of a country with a great economic growth, but poor political reputation. Seen in context, however, the prospects seem bleaker. It is uncertain what the regime means by ‘political prisoners’ and if they at all admit it has such prisoners. This move is not an outcome of international pressure, but a result of internal power struggles, which are currently taking place within the ruling party.

Protests in the two largest regions of Oromia and Amhara since 2015 have challenged the ruling party of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) more than expected. The EPRDF, which has been in power since the end of the 1991 civil war, has been dominated by the late TPLF leader and Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. He made sure to suppress tensions and conflicts between the different fractions, and managed to keep the coalition together. When Meles Zenawi died in 2012, the much less dominant Hailemariam Desalegn, the leader of the party representing various southern Ethiopian groups took over as prime minister. He was elected as a compromise candidate, who could balance the interests of the various factions and maintain the status quo. He apparently managed this well until recently. The two presidents of Amhara and Oromia, who also represent EPRDF, have since this summer partly supported the protests. They have demanded genuine regional self-rule and an end to TPLF’s dominance.

Since the protests, the EPRDF has gone through what they call a “deep reform” to address causes of the political crisis. In a statement, the executive committee on 30 December 2017 identified the lack of democracy and distrust internally in the party as one of the main causes of the crisis. This has in their view led to poor leadership and governance, which in turn is the cause of the protests. In other words, the EPRDF has not identified the lack of fundamental political and civil rights, and real multi-party elections as part of the problem.

The statement about the release of ‘political prisoners’ is a result of this reform discussion. At a press conference with leaders of all the four EPRDF parties, everyone confirmed that they had gone through an open, honest, and serious discussion and had turned every stone to find solutions to the political crisis. The joint press conference also served the purpose of appearing to be coherent coalition, with all parties behind the same political line. Prime Minister Hailemariam stated that ‘as a step towards securing national consensus and widening the democratic platform, it is decided that charges against arrested politicians and individuals should be dropped or that they should be pardoned’. This formulation is open enough to accommodate very different interpretations. International news agencies, except for one agency, were quick to convert this to ‘all political prisoners should be released’. Reuters did not use the word ‘political prisoners’, but referred to the dropping of charges or pardoning  of ‘dissident politicians’ currently under prosecution. Their interpretation proved to be more in line with the formulation of the Prime Minister. Nevertheless, the statement created international attention and expectations that the Ethiopian regime must think twice about how this will be handled and possibly fulfilled or retracted. This has already led to an immediate revision of the press release.

In an Amharic language article published by Fana Broadcasting Corporation, which is considered a mouthpiece for the EPRDF, a revised statement from the prime minister was published. All references to political prisoners or arrested politicians were replaced by ‘some individuals who are arrested for committing a crime’. International media later published statements from the Ethiopian government suggesting that the Prime Minister was misquoted. With this, EPRDF is not admitting that they have political prisoners, thus continuing the policy of rejecting that there are prisoners of conscience in Ethiopia. As a result, it is still uncertain who will be released and pardoned. Are they the few prominent opposition politicians, who may possibly be pacified through a national dialogue process, or are they the thousands of civilian demonstrators who were arrested during protests?

The prime minister also promised to close and turn the Maekelawi prison in Addis Ababa into a museum. The prison has allegedly been the centre of torture and political imprisonment. In the same breath, he stated that a new prison, with international standard will be constructed. This, along with the nuances and revisions of the Ethiopian news reports, in a political context where control and oppression is part of everyday life, makes it hard to believe that this will bring real and fundamental changes towards democracy in Ethiopia.

Lovise Aalen is a Research Director at  Chr. Michelsen Institute

The post The release of political prisoners in Ethiopia – too good to be true? appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News|Breaking News: Your right to know!.

What are the challenges and potential solutions?

By XX

• In summary: A slow and dramatic political and economic change is underway in Ethiopia under the semblance of a developmental and democratic governance. Miscalculated politics along with entrenched economic, cultural, social and demographic challenges appear to drive the country to uncertain future.

First, it may be useful to provide some basic context to motivate my observations about the recent political and economic challenges and transformations in Ethiopia. Ethiopia has been under the rule of an ethnically-assembled ruling party called the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) for the last 26 years. Led by the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), this political group put the right for ‘ethnic self-determination’ at the center of its political agenda. The key rationale, according to TPLF, is that regimes before EPRDF were pro-Amhara and discriminating against other ethnic groups. As such, the new Government created ethnic-based federal regional states, which granted semi-autonomous regional Governments with the right to determine their regional working languages, flags and local government structures, among others. TPLF strongly promoted that the ethnic federal system is a cornerstone of sustainable peace as it addresses the decades-old national question on equal rights to all ethnic groups in Ethiopia effectively. However, the veiled reason, some argue, is a political agenda aimed at disempowering and subjugating ethnic majority groups, particularly the Oromos and Amharas, by creating distrust and animosity between them and by doing so ensure the political and economic dominance of ethnic Tigriyans. According to some elites, this explains why ethnic Tigriyans exclusively control the Federal Government and key security and military positions. The Government openly promotes a narrative that ‘poverty is the number-one enemy of the country’, and should be defeated under its leadership. It therefore formulated ambitious economic policies that put the state at the center of economic activities.  Key economic sectors, such as telecom, banking, infrastructure development and electric power remain under government monopoly while international investment in several other key sectors is prohibited. Land, a fundamental resource to an agrarian country, remains under the control of the Government and often used as a political instrument.

This system of governance and economic policies and strategies resulted in remarkable growth over the years. For example, in my recent observation, I have seen few seemingly well-off people both in Addis Ababa and Bahir Dar city. One can see new private saloon cars parked in Bahir Dar city streets, which is a rarity a decade ago. New, although largely shoddy and sub-standard, buildings are sprawling in many towns.  New industrial zones are being constructed, following Chinese and East Asian development experiences. Roads, dams and railway lines are being built in different parts of the country. This positive outlook however seems to mask the perilous political situation the country is in. For example, nearly everyone I had a conversation with recently appears to delve into political subjects quickly, with extreme sentiment and deep hatred towards some ethnic groups.  People from all walks of life seemed to disapprove EPRRDF, especially TPLF. There is a strong held belief amongst ordinary people that TPLF desires ethnic conflicts and purposively instigates them. For example, in early December 2017, it was reported that university students across the country have been engaged in ethnic conflicts in which ethnic Tigriyans targeted Amhara students whereas ethnic Amhara and Oromo students carried out retributions. A university student told me that some students have thrown students off building balconies. Whether this graphic story is true or not, it is sad and sickening to hear it. More sadly, perhaps, ordinary citizens strongly believe that this is the work of TPLF agents and ‘Rwanda-style’ ethnic civil war is in the making.

To avert escalation of the mayhem beyond universities, Mobile Internet is blocked across the country except in Addis Ababa since mid December 2017. This means, for example, that most Ethiopians will not read this commentary right now.

Due to cyber blackout, perhaps, I noticed that groups of people gathered in cafes, barbershops, restaurants and beer corners in Bahir Dar publicly talking about outlandish rumors about the prime minister and regional government presidents without fear of undercover intelligence and spies, which are widely considered to be EPRDF’s extreme strength.

All of these lead to a key question: what went wrong in this once proud but increasingly fragmented and weakened and, paradoxically, economically promising country?

In the following I would like to briefly highlight the political, social, economical, cultural and demographic issues that may have contributed to this situation, largely based on public sentiment. I will also suggest potential solutions that may help avert the looming crisis and perhaps contribute to Ethiopia’s sustainable development.

1. Ethnic-based ‘divide and rule’ political system

As mentioned earlier, there is an overwhelming consensus among many Ethiopians that much of the current political instability is a direct result of the ethnic policies that TPLF-led forces deliberately put in place about 26 years ago. Some strongly argue that TPLF’s long-term and ultimate goal is to establish an independent Tigray Republic, with a strong industrial hub, economy and military force in East Africa. They mention TPLF-related business conglomerates and industries, Ethiopian Airlines and the military, all of which are controlled by ethnic Tigriyans, as cases in point. They also indicate that TPLF was not even ready to change its name from ‘Tigray People’s Liberation Front’ to something that reflects ‘Ethiopianess’. People also state that TPLF has included a clause on the right of ‘self-determination up to and including secession’ in the current constitution intentionally to use it when the time is right. Other elites have long argued that TPLF has rewritten Ethiopia’s past history (or at least wants to rewrite it) to suit its political agenda and narratives. Many think that it has intentionally exaggerated ethnic elements of past mistreatments, tribal conflicts and grievances and at times encouraged retributions and divisions. One young woman recently told me that she has seen ‘Agazi soldiers’ chasing and torturing a couple of teenagers that were selling a new book by Professor Fikire Tolosa entitled the ‘True origins of Amhara & Oromo’. Indeed, most people believe that TPLF has repeatedly attempted to create a sense of war between nationalistic (unionist) or ‘Ethiopianistic’ Amharas (what TPLF calls ‘chauvinists’) and ultra tribal and secessionist groups (what TPLF often calls ‘narrow tribalists’) by exploiting identity sensibilities and belief systems. In this scenario, TPLF presents itself as a savior from an impending ethnic time bomb, and as such argues that it is important that it has to remain in power until the democratization process of the country matures.

Unsurprisingly, perhaps, TPLF has started to ‘reap what it sow’ in recent years. Ordinary citizens now seem to be on top of the political drama and government propaganda; and they believe that most EPRDF cadres are uneducated, self-centered and unsophisticated opportunists who do not care about what happens to this poor country as long as it serves their interests.  It has now become evident to everyone that Ethiopia is prone to disintegration merely by Facebook posts.

I believe that a ‘true’ geographic federalism based on ‘Ethiopianess’ as a shared identity may be a potential solution to this dangerous political trajectory. In this sense, I can imagine at least eight federal states in the Current Amhara Regional state. This would, for example, include North Gondar Regional state (where Gondar City is its capital), West Gojam Regional State (where Bahir Dar is its capital), East Gojam Regional State (where Debremarkos is its capital) and South Gondar Regional State (where Debretabor is its capital city), among others.  In this scenario, I can also imagine another supper-federation of the federal states. These may be divided, again geographically, into four: Federation of Northern Ethiopian Regional States, Federation of Eastern Ethiopian Regional States, Federation of Southern Ethiopian Regional States, and Federation of Western Ethiopian Regional States.  At the center of the four supper-federation states will be the Federal Government, with Afaan Oromo and Amharic as its official languages. This would truly devolve administrative power and as a result each state could have its political and economic autonomy.  It would result in equal wealth distribution among the regional states.  The new regional capitals may rapidly develop and support rural-urban migration in their respective regions. It would also not be (comparatively to the current system) prone to ethnic politics and ultimately to disintegration.

Additionally, all economic activities, sectors and government positions and opportunities must be equally open to all Ethiopians based on acquired merits regardless of their natural ethnic origins or personal religious or political and other belief systems.

The Government should foster a genuine democracy in which individuals’ basic and human rights are respected. It has to strive to put in place strong institutions with neutral military and judicial systems for sustainable peace. Ethnic politics must be shunned off, and if necessary it should be banned from public discourse and criminalized.  The notion that ‘Ethiopia’s democracy is nascent and needs time to mature’ should not be exaggerated and taken as an excuse. It is possible, and indeed some African countries have already shown that it is feasible to expedite the process of democratization.

The Government should allow for open political discourse in which alternative views and ideologies are entertained. People then will learn that they have the right to reflect their views but it is wrong to engage in destructive and violent protests. No person should be prosecuted or jailed for his/her political views!  

1. Population growth and high-level of illiteracy

The population in Ethiopia has dramatically grown over the last 25 years. Most rural youth, especially in the central and northern highlands, do not have (sufficient) land to farm, forcing them to become day laborers to survive. The ethnic federalism policy has practically limited the movement of farmers from one region to another in search of better jobs and farming opportunities. While this may lead to an increase rural to urban migration within regions, most cities across the country are not prepared to accommodate such influx. Due to artificial and natural reasons, housing and rental prices have dramatically gone up over the last decade or so with property trade being at the center of major commerce (although in theory the Government bans land trade in the country). The key urban environment that has historically received large number of rural migrants has been Addis Ababa. However, the ethnic federal system has effectively limited Addis Ababa’s boundary, and it can no longer sustain poor rural immigrants.

Despite increasing rhetoric to have increased access to formal education in the country, Ethiopia remains one of the least literate countries in the world. Yet, a great percentage of new university graduates remain unemployed. A person recently told me that one regional Bureau in Bahir Dar received job applications from over 3000 BSc Degree holders for a single vacant position. Clearly, one of the greatest challenges for the Government is to ensure access to universal education and at the same time to put its increasingly educated youth to work.

I believe that well-managed population growth may be a source of wealth. However, in countries like Ethiopia, population explosion may indeed be a source of crisis. It is high time for Ethiopia to have a long-term vision. This vision should include strategies that put the high rate of population growth in check. One strategy could be to declare ‘one-child-one-household’ policy for those who cannot afford to raise more than one child, and ‘two-child-one household’ policy for those who are relatively well off.  Such disrupting and bold policies are likely to be met with tough resistance. The current regime however needs to be prepared to take the necessary risks to make such serious decisions, making calculated comprises between short-term political and long-term national objectives.

1.  Petty trade and retailing of imported goods and commodities

Nearly all, big and small investors and traders in the country are engaged in petty trade, retail or services sectors. One can observe that most residential homes in cities are converted to commodity shops, restaurants or teashops. This might not be surprising in a poor country. However, wealthy businessmen, with millions of dollars in their bank accounts, often prefer importing sub-standard consumable goods and commodities from China or other Asian and Arabian countries at cheap prices and retail them at exorbitant profit margins. Most of these businessmen do not seem to appreciate or know the value of investing in productive sectors, such as in agriculture and manufacturing. The Government simply focuses on collecting tax revenue, and does not meaningfully encourage investment in productive and relatively high-risk business sectors.

I do not believe that petty trade, in which Kebede boils water and tealeaves and sells a cup of tea to Taye, should be a business that the Government encourages. This reminds me of my encounter with a British Youngman in Bahir Dar several years ago. He was sitting besides me in a juice shop and began a conversation with me. Quite quickly, the man bluntly shared his observation with me, which I was a bit offended about but agreed with. He said: “Ethiopia’s economy is all about producing bananas and selling them on the streets”. As I thought about his remarks deeply over the years, I realized that the problem is much worse than the young man’s observation.

A business in which one imports paper or garment from China is probably important but it should not be the only business that every other businessman in the country is engaged with. Similarly, selling hot tea will only take Taye’s money to Kebede’s pocket, but it will not add a penny to the net national gross domestic product. The Government may have called this with fancy jargons, such as ‘rent seeking’ or something else, but it has not clearly articulated what it practically means or taken appropriate measures.

Major investments in the country should add value and bring in additional revenue to the country in the form of hard currency. In short the Government has to create incentives and awareness on the importance of investing in productive sectors that not only bring in wealth to the investor but also additional revenue to the country.

1. Dysfunctional government agencies

One of the challenges that increasingly frustrate most people, especially in cities, is the poor quality of basic services, such as access to clean water, electric power, mobile telecommunication and the internet. In the case of internet, for example, Ethiopia remains one of the least connected countries in the world. Despite this, the government cuts and blocks internet access for trivial reasons. Sub-standard electric power transformers and cables often lead to frequent electric outages. Uncontrolled electric power surge often results in untimely damage to electronic equipment belonging to poor households. One Bahir Dar resident recently told me that even the street traffic lights function when a federal official or guest visits the town. “Really”, he said “no body cares about what happens on the ground. They [EPRDF officials] only care about the control of power at federal level. As a result there is total anarchy at local level. If you observe the daily activities of some people, you might be tempted to think that there is no government in this country, especially over the last two years.”

Others in rural areas are bitter about the act that food aid (from donor countries) is often used for political objectives. Those that support the government and corrupt officials often receive food aid while others don’t.

Historically Government services in Ethiopia have been prone to corruption, nepotism and favoritism. Some people feel that these unfortunate crimes have now grown to the level that is not seen before. They argue that they are so rampant that they have become part of the ‘normal’ way of doing things, especially between Government officials and local businessmen. This reminds me a story that a friend told me a few years ago. A person bought a house and went to a city municipality to transfer the property. The officials and the surveyor who oversee the transfer refused to expedite the process. One of them finally whispered to the poor guy that it would have been shorter and easier if he has come “on his hands instead of his feet”. This was to tell to the ‘naïve’ guy that the official was allegedly looking for a bribe to do his very job that the city municipality pays a monthly salary for.

To prevent the looming crisis from exploding, I believe that the government has to connect well with the citizenry and ensure quality services through its administrative structures. It has to meaningfully fight all forms of corruption and mistreatment by public officials at all levels.

5. A trade system that favors the ruling elite and some minority groups

One of the great tragedies in Ethiopia over the last 20 years or so is the rise of the so-called ‘delalas’ (brokers), ethnic-based business conglomerates and ethnically-favored business men and women that artificially hike the price of houses, house rentals, cash crops and even simple food items, such as sugar and cooking oil.  The issue of sugar scarcity could tell it all. One has to be registered using an identity card or passport at a ‘Keble’ to buy a killo of sugar. Supporting this, I saw a minibus taxi in Addis Ababa, which posted: “Teji bebirilie, sukuar be kebelie”. Strangely, and perhaps amusingly, I was told that local cadres blackmail or intimidate households who do not support or vote for the regime by prohibiting access to sugar. One farmer recently told me that the self-proclaimed ‘birhanu mengist’ or ‘Tsehayu mengist’ tells people that sugar is scarce because of the rapid development that has enabled poor households increasingly afford for sugar. I asked if that is the case. The farmer smiled at me sarcastically and said that “one of the commodities that we, farmers, can not produce is sugar. The fact is the Government can not produce sugar that satisfies our demand.”

While it seems difficult for Ethiopia to supply sugar for its growing population, it has now become ‘normal’ to see ‘Overnight Millionaires’ due to unfair and dishonest but legal commercial practices. Because of ‘delalas’ and bad business practices of ethnic minorities (without proper regulatory checks and balances), the price of basic consumables and commodities has soared more than 10 times over the past decade. While this has created fortune for some, it has made life extremely difficult for the vast majority low-income households (for example government civil servants). Recently, I visited an ill woman who makes a living on selling ‘Injera’ for civil servants. She was dismayed that the very people who used to buy her Injera a decade ago have now become ‘Injera-sellers’ themselves. Curiously, I asked her about the reason why that has happened. She replied: “they are now poorer than she is”.

A party or Government, which is concerned a little about the country it leads, should put the welfare of its citizens on top of its priority. It should not be engaged in business practices that put the very survival of its poor society into jeopardy. It should punish evil ‘delalas’ and ethnically-favored businessmen who ‘legally’ steal from poor people’s meager resources.  Ethiopia is now the only country in the developing world where uneducated street smarts earn tens of thousands of Birr (perhaps more) every month while highly educated university academics and other civil servants are struggling to put bread on their tables. Ethiopian children are now growing up wishing to become a ‘delala’ one day and become rich without the effort and handwork that earning a penny deserves.

The writer of this commentary believes that many of the current economic policies of the Government are highly appropriate and ambitious. Indeed the Government is actively building infrastructure, which has to be commended. However, it has to also create appropriate incentive mechanisms and business-enabling environment for the private sector to engage in manufacturing and commercial agriculture. It has to facilitate the provision of both human and financial resources, facilitate entrepreneurship in risky business sectors, ensure the development and diffusion of appropriate knowledge and innovation in strategic sectors, empower civic society and enforce the ‘rule of law’. It has to foster the growth of industries by local investors based on the competitive advantage of the country and its natural resource endowments. But at the same time, it has to allow for a free market and the entry of international investors in relevant economic sectors. It, fore example, should allow for the entry of international and regional supermarket chains and shopping malls. This may introduce modern commerce practices and ease the ever-rising cost of commodities.

Above all, Ethiopian diplomats based in diplomatic missions overseas should explore and learn from international best practices in trade and other activities. In East Africa, for example, the experiences of Kenya in ICT, telecommunications, modern shopping malls and supermarkets, as well as the lessons on city neatness and modernization of Kigali in Rwanda could be taken as good examples to learn from.

1. Being land-locked

It is common knowledge that Ethiopia pays a significant fee to use seaports of neighboring countries for its overseas trading activities. Some figures even seem to suggest that Ethiopia’s seaport fee might be as high as its total export earnings from coffee. Because of this, perhaps, the cost of imported goods is extremely high and increasingly unaffordable to the vast majority of the population. The price of imported used-cars in Ethiopia, for example is, nearly three times the total price of similar cars in Kenya. Such challenges have led cars to become unaffordable for most residents of Addis Ababa and other regional cities. As a result, Addis Ababa has become a city of public transport nightmare.

The issue of cars, although it affects the minority few, really reflects what loosing a seaport is all about for a poor country. As is known to everyone, Ethiopia was naturally endowed with seaports. Due to intended and unintended historical errors of politicians, it has now ended up being among the largest land-locked countries.

Although reversing this quite unfortunate fate may seem difficult, concerted efforts should be made to change this situation sooner or latter.

7. EPRDF’s distrust and dislike towards educated citizens of the country

Recently, I had conversation with some Ethiopian academics about their views on the current regime. Strikingly, all of them told me that some EPRDF officials hold a deep hatred and suspicion towards educated Ethiopians. They told me, it has always been difficult to know their motives but TPLF leaders might have believed that educated citizens could be against their ‘divide-weaken-and-rule’ political strategy. EPRDF’s party agents often approach less-educated but talkative individuals and teach them their core ideologies.  Once a person becomes a party member or an official, he/she will be used to enforce the regime’s ideologies using highly effective ‘carrot and stick’ incentive mechanisms. These members will also be systematically subjected to self- and peer criticism sessions.

Because of this, perhaps, most educated citizens of the country have chosen to look for opportunities in western countries. Nearly all high-ranking students, which I had attended high school with, are now professionals in other countries. These bright citizens would have contributed to their society in many ways if the Government has created attractive mechanisms of incentivizing and participating them in their countries political, social and political affairs.

I believe that any regime should not push aside its educated citizens. Like any segment of society, some scholars might oppose the government while others may support its policies. But, educated citizens should not be viewed as a source of concern, rather an opportunity to work with. Sufficient incentive mechanisms that attract highly educated citizens should be put in place. People from all walks of life should, at least ideally, believe that knowledge is the ultimate source of power to lead others or to become rich in the modern world.

Overall, it is true that Ethiopia is affected by complex historical, political, social, cultural, geographical and economical challenges. So, it would not be fair to put all the blame on EPRDF.  Frankly, EPRDF has succeeded in many ways that regimes before it have utterly failed.  However, the author of this commentary believes that these real or perceived challenges (highlighted above) may create a vicious cycle of causation—one negatively reinforcing the other—putting the country in a perpetual state of instability and poverty. The turmoil over the past two years has indicated that politics built on hatred, greed, extreme propaganda and deceit does not do any good to anyone. If EPRDF fails to take concrete measures urgently to correct some of its historical mistakes, it might not be too long for the country to descend to an all out civil war in which there won’t be losers and winners. It is everyone’s wish in Ethiopia that EPRDF realizes that it would be in the best of its interest to steer the country to the right direction so that it [EPRDF] will go down in the right side of history!

Note: the writer of this commentary is an academic who simply aims to contribute his insights based on current public opinion on Ethiopian politics. He is not a member of any political group, and does not support, endorse or condemn any political party in Ethiopia for personal or other reasons.

The post Ethiopia’s misguided political trajectory seems to threaten the very existence of the nation appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News|Breaking News: Your right to know!.

50,000 USD has been donated today by Ethiopians in Atlanta.

Atlanta has finished the audit of its recent fundraising. A total of USD 50,000 have been donated today to the Global Coalition for Lake Tana Restoration. Ethiopians in Atlanta have kept their promise to raise funds for the first water harvesting machine! Our Scientific Committee, after detailed studies, have identified H5-200 AQUAMARINE as a convenient, durable and cost-efficient machine to remove water hyacinths from Lake Tana. It is manufactured in Canada and the price is $49,980.00 The shipping quote is $10,000. The funds raised from Atlanta and Israel will be allocated to purchase this machine and ship it to Bahirdar as soon as possible.

To arrange things on the ground, two members of our Scientific Team, Dr Yihun and Dr Abeyou, are currently in Ethiopia to provide trainings and discuss details of plans with the Regional Environment Authority. The Regional Environmental Authority is excited of the good news of the first machine and is arranging things to make sure that the machine commences working as soon as it reached Bahirdar.

The Global Coalition have planned fundraising events in DC area, Dallas and Minnesota in the next few months. The big event is under way in DC area for 17 March 2018. Please visit our website for updates.

Source: http://tanacoalition.org/

The post Ethiopians in Atlanta donated $50,000 to the Global Coalition for Lake Tana Restoration! appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News|Breaking News: Your right to know!.

“Yeharerwerk Gashaw: A Bridge between the Diaspora and Africa” Straight Talk Africa

The post “Yeharerwerk Gashaw: A Bridge between the Diaspora and Africa” Straight Talk Africa appeared first on Satenaw: Ethiopian News|Breaking News: Your right to know!.

January 13, 2018 (KHARTOUM) – Governor of the Blue Nile State Hussein Yassen Hamad said 13,000 out of 55,000 Sudanese refugees have returned to their home areas from Ethiopia.

He told the official news agency SUNA that his government in coordination with the Humanitarian Aid Commission has provided food, clothing and medicine to returnees after they settled in their villages of origin.

Hamad added that a number of rebel fighters have also laid down their arms and returned to the state following the presidential pardon and appeals by the residents.

The Sudanese refugees were being sheltered in camps and among host communities along the Ethiopia-Sudan border since their arrival in 2011.

Blue Nile State and neighbouring South Kordofan state have been the scene of violent conflict between the SPLM-N and the Sudanese army since 2011.

Talks between the two sides for a cessation of hostilities and humanitarian access are stalled since August 2016.

(ST)

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Fairfax Africa Fund, a US-based investment firm, in collaboration with multiple partners from Asian countries is planning to build an oil refinery in Ethiopia with a total investment cost of four billion US dollars.

Zemedeneh-Negatu

Zemedeneh Negatu, Global chairman of Fairfax Africa Fund, told The Reporter that his company has undertaken the feasibility study.

According to Zemedeneh, Fairfax Africa Fund is working on the project with Asian investors whose core business is oil trading and infrastructure development. “Our initial plan was for our investors to be from Asia but more recently, we were approached by American financiers who are interested in the project. So, we may end up with financiers both from Asia and the US,” he told The Reporter.

The investors have evaluated several places including Djibouti where the oil refinery will be built and finally selected Awash town, 221km east of Addis Ababa. Awash is found in the Afar Regional State in the Ethio-Djibouti corridor where the national fuel depot of the Ethiopian Petroleum Supply Enterprise is located. “Awash is selected as the ideal place by the authorities,” Zemedeneh said.    

According to him, initially, the refinery will have the capacity of processing six million metric tons of crude oil, equal to approximately 120,000 barrels per day. Ethiopia currently uses three million metric tons of fuel annually. The refinery’s capacity will eventually be expanded to 12 million metric tons per year. The total investment cost is estimated at four billion dollars.

The planned refinery will serve the East African market. “It will primarily serve Ethiopia. It is part of Ethiopia’s energy security program. The refinery will also cater the needs of other East African nations,” Zemedeneh said.

Fairfax held preliminary discussions with the Ministry of Mines, Petroleum and Natural Gas, the Ethiopian Petroleum Supply Enterprise (EPSE) and various other government organizations. The discussions are still at the early stages. But, based on these early discussions, we have already identified a couple of suitable locations within Ethiopia for the refinery. We plan to present a more detailed business proposal to the government authorities later this year,” Zemedeneh said.

Source:  Reporter

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By prof. Alemayehu G. Mariam

Author’s Note: This is the first installment in a three-part series on prospects “mediation”, “reconciliation” and “negotiation” with the ruling Thugtatorship of the Tigrean People’s Liberation Front (T-TPLF). In part I, I discuss why the current discussion on “mediation”, “reconciliation” and “negotiation” with the T-TPLF is of the utmost important to me personally, why it makes me jittery and extremely concerned and at the same time amuses me. In Part II, I aim to examine why it is impossible to engage in “mediation”, “reconciliation” and “negotiation” with the T-TPLF. In Part III, I aim to sketch out my views on a path that could make possible “mediation”, “reconciliation” and “negotiation” with the T-TPLF and avert the creeping civil war from engulfing the country.

The general aim of the series is to raise fundamental questions about the current fashionable talk about “reconciliation” within the framework of a T-TPLF-centered political dialogue and to urge caution and help inform those who, in good faith, seek to promote a “reconciliation process” as a way out of current dire situation in Ethiopia.

I dedicate the series to all of Ethiopia’s youth that have made the ultimate sacrifice to free their country from minority ethnic apartheid rule and establish a democratic society based on the rule of law.

Ethiopia’s youth (Cheetahs) united can never be defeated!

Ethiopiawinet TODAY, Ethiopiawinet TOMORROW, Ethiopiawinet FOREVER!

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Of “reconciliation” with the “wounded beast” in Ethiopia

Of late, there is a great deal of talk among the bosses of the Thugtatorship of the Tigrean People’s Liberation Front (T-TPLF), some Ethiopian opposition parties and groups, human rights activists, foreign diplomats and others about “reconciliation” and the urgent need for “reconciliation process” to avert a creeping civil war rearing its ugly head on the Ethiopian horizon.

Last month in a Voice of America- Amharic Service interview (for audio of original English interview click here) former U.S. Assistant  Secretary of State for African Affairs and U.S. Ambassador, Herman Jay (Hank) Cohen, called for U.S. “mediation” and “reconciliation” among stakeholders in Ethiopia to prevent the “collapse of law and order” in Ethiopia. He said, “I think now is a good time to do the right thing and have a national reconciliation exercise.”  In his January 2, 2018 blog, Ambassador Cohen wrote, “if reports of the regime inciting cross border conflict between Somali and Oromo states are true, then it is clear that Ethiopia’s prospects for national reconciliation within a democratic dispensation are still a long way over the horizon.” Ambassador Cohen mediated the takeover of power by the T-TPLF in 1991.

Last week, T-TPLF prime minister Hailemariam Desalegn announced he will release political prisoners in the country “to establish a national consensus and widen the political sphere.” Is “national consensus” the same as “national reconciliation”? I know phrase mongering, sloganeering, cutting and pasting laws is a T-TPLF specialty. So, I am not sure what Desalegn means when he blathers about consensus and political sphere.

Truth be told, I have no idea about the “reconciliation”, “mediation” and “consensus” Ambassador Cohen, Desalegn and others are talking about. These words are so overused, they have become almost meaningless. “Reconciliation” is an emotionally loaded word. A closer examination of the word suggests “reconciliation” has an ordinary and technical meaning. In general conversation, “reconciliation” is often used as a substitute for the platitude “forgive and forget, let bygones be bygones”. There is a general sense of impunity for wrong-doers and a feeling of “kumbaya” (let’s just get along) in such application of the word.

For the experts, reconciliation is a “method to prevent further conflict in war-torn societies” and a “societal process that involves mutual acknowledgment of past suffering and the changing of destructive attitudes and behaviour into constructive relationships toward sustainable peace.” The experts say “reconciliation” is a multifaceted “process” involving religious, socio-cultural, economic, political, psychological, and juridical aspects. For those in the legal profession, “reconciliation” generally entails prosecution for serious crimes and wrongdoings in society. Regardless, “reconciliation” for some means the end, a point of closure for horrendous crimes committed by the state. For others, it is just the beginning of accountability and justice for the victims of state crimes. Still for others view “reconciliation” as a process of discovering the truth about state crimes eventually leading to general amnesty for some who may be responsible for serious and gross human rights violations.

From what I have read and gathered, much of the current commentary and discussion on “reconciliation” on Ethiopia impresses me as sloganeering and empty rhetoric. Many of those who talk about “reconciliation” aim to convince and persuade by phrase trying to persuade people by phrase mongering instead of offering clear and coherent explanations. The word in current discussions is used almost as a euphemism for impunity for those who committed heinous crimes in the name of the state. In other words, it seems to me many of those peddling “reconciliation” in Ethiopia today are really talking about nailing shut the dark chapter of the last 27 years, letting the T-TPLF regime off the accountability hook for its crimes against humanity and letting bygones be bygones and “making peace” in the interest of “avoiding a potentially bloody civil war.” In other words, they seem to be arguing for reconciliation without truth-finding.

I am aware of and various occasions participated in the Ethiopian tradition of “Irq” (reconciliation) where the operative reconciliation phrases among the elders are, “Beqa yiqir (let it be)”, “Antem tew, Anchim tey” (each one of you, let it go), “Yiqir Legzaber” (let’s leave it to God”, “Gid yelem, yihun lahun” (It’s OK, let it be for now), qusil mekfet ayasfelegin (not necessary to open wounds), “min yidereg, yalefe neger new” (nothing can be done, it is all in the past) and other such attitudes in pursuing reconciliation. The great tragedy of this tradition is that it sweeps serious grievances and injustices under the rug in the interest of making “peace” and promoting “harmony”. It never solves the underlying problems, only kicks the can down the road until the problems arises again.

My view is that the “Irq” process falsely aims to achieve peace and harmony by deliberately suppressing the truth about the underlying dispute, whether it is between spouses or social groups. I hear many in the Ethiopian community talking about “Irq”. I do not know if they are talking about traditional Irq but if they are proposing such Irq with the T-TPLF, I wish to register my implacable objection to it now.

There can be no healing unless the wound inflicted over 27 years are opened and cleaned with the antiseptic of truth-finding. To paraphrase Langston Hughes, a wound that is left uncleaned “festers like a sore and then run. It will sag like a heavy load, and then explode.”

My unwavering position is that there can be no reconciliation without truth-finding.

Having said that, I raise a simple but fundamental question. Is the T-TPLF in any position today, given the historical forces at play in Ethiopia, to “mediate”, “negotiate” and “reconcile”?

I find the whole idea amusing and laughable. The truth of the matter is that the T-TPLF today is in no position to mediate, negotiate and reconcile with anyone.

First, as Frederick Douglas observed, “The limits of tyrants are prescribed by the endurance of those whom they oppress.” The endurance of the Ethiopian people to prolong their suffering under the T-TPLF rule has completely vanished. They can no longer endure living a nightmare under ethnic apartheid T-TPLF rule. Their patience is exhausted and their endurance completely drained. They have nothing to “mediate”, “negotiate” or “reconcile” with the T-TPLF. Only the terms of T-TPLF disengagement and departure from power are negotiable. That choice is entirely in the hands of the T-TPLF bosses. They can choose to depart with a bang or a whimper. The resolve of the people of Ethiopia is to end ethnic apartheid once.

The time for romance with the T-TPLF has long been gone. There are irreconcilable differences that have been brewing for 27 years. The people of Ethiopia want the T-TPLF OUT, Out, out of power, NOW!

Second, the T-TPLF “beast is wounded”, very badly, and is no position to “mediate”, “negotiate” or “reconcile”. Like any wild wounded beast, it has only one choice: expire quietly or react impulsively and cause as much destruction as it can before it expires and is dumped in the trash bin of history.

History is repeating itself in Ethiopia. The T-TPLF today is in the same exact position the Derg military junta was in just before the TPLF marched into Addis Ababa in mid-1991. Back then, the T-TPLF walked in and seized power simply because there was no other organized alternative force, and whatever force existed at the time was in total disarray as that coward Mengistu Hailemariam scooted to Zimbabwe to save his skin.

In its last days, the Derg leader Mengistu Hailemariam tried all kinds of tricks to cling to power. But the people were sick and tired of Derg abuses and tyranny. They let the TPLF’s rag tag rebel army to come in and seize power without any resistance. Today, the T-TPLF leaders are racking their brains to figure out a way to cling to power in the face of massive, defiant and unbreakable popular resistance and civil disobedience. The T-TPLF bosses are playing musical chairs every day assigning and reassigning each other to different political positions. They issue proclamations and announcements every day pretending that they are making basic and fundamental changes. They even announcedthey will release political prisoners which they claimed they never had for a decade and half. In an act of shameless con job, a day before the announced political release, the T-TPLF railroaded to long prison terms 19 persons suspected of having links with Ginbot 7 Movement. The T-TPLF has tried to cling to power by imposing a “State of Emergency Command Post” Decree suspending their own constitution.

The T-TPLF bosses today are at the end of their ropes, on their last legs. They do not know what to do to continue to cling to power and maintain the ethnic apartheid system they have enjoyed over the past 27 years. Today, T-TPLF leaders spend most of their time fretting and confused about what to do next as the peoples’ will and steely resolve increases by leaps and bounds everyday made desperate by runaway inflation, skyrocketing cost of living and a paralyzed state whose sole concern is clinging to power.

People who are angry and hungry are not in any mood to “mediate”, “negotiate” or “reconcile”.

Mao Tse-tung used to talk about U.S. imperialism as a “paper tiger” which appears powerful “but in reality it isn’t because it is divorced from the masses of the people and is disliked by everybody. Outwardly a tiger, it is made of paper, unable to withstand the wind and the rain.”

Mao’s prescriptions to deal with the paper tiger required simple persistence, determination and resolve. He said, “When we say U.S. imperialism is a paper tiger, we are speaking in terms of strategy. Regarding it as a whole, we must despise it. But regarding each part, we must take it seriously. It has claws and fangs. We have to destroy it piecemeal. For instance, if it has ten fangs, knock off one the first time, and there will be nine left, knock off another, and there will be eight left. When all the fangs are gone, it will still have claws. If we deal with it step by step and in earnest, we will certainly succeed in the end.” (Emphasis added.)

The T-TPLF is a paper tiger that is universally disliked and despised by the Ethiopian people. It has many claws and fangs. But the people of Ethiopia united around a strategy of Ethiopiawinet have shown that they can remove the T-TPLF’s claws one at a time, de-fanging it and snipping its forked tongue one at a time. We are witnessing their victory today and every day!

Talking about tigers, John F. Kennedy was right when he said, “Those who foolishly sought power by riding the back of the tiger ended up inside.” I prefer to replace the tiger with the Cheetah in this metaphor.

Does the angry and hungry Ethiopian Cheetah  want to “mediate”, “negotiate” and “reconcile” with the one riding him ragged for 27 years?

Third, it is impossible to mediate, negotiate or reconcile with a shell corporation pretending to be a state or government. The T-TPLF regime is not and has never been a government or a state. The T-TPLF regime has always operated as a shell corporation for its leaders and elites to plunder the country’s economy, engage in corruption, fraud, money laundering, racketeering and other criminal enterprises. That is why I have always called the TPLF a thugtatorship. It is a kleptocracy, a government of thieves, for thieves, by thieves.

In a thugtatorship, the purpose of seizing and clinging to political power is solely to accumulate personal wealth for the ruling class by stealing public funds and depriving the broader population scarce resources necessary for basic survival. The T-TPLF has created an empire of corruption in Ethiopia and operate sophisticated criminal business enterprises to loot the country’s treasury and resources. The T-TPLF’s flagship conglomerate, EFFORT (Endowment Fund for the Rehabilitation of Tigray), is nothing more than a racketeering organization. According to EFFORT’s former chairman, “EFFORT companies receive preferential access to limited credit and/or foreign exchange stocks, or treatment on government bids and contracts, customs clearance import/export license.”

It is often said that EFFORT and the T-TPLF have lavished riches and glory on the people of Tigray. As I demonstrated in my August 2016 commentary, “Ethiopia: Beyond the Politics of Hate”, the evidence does not support the claim. The T-TPLF and EFFORT have scared the people of Tigray into supporting them by invoking all sorts of boogeymen who will come after them without the protection of the T-TPLF and EFFORT and eat their lunches. They have used the people of Tigray as pawns in their ethnic politics chess game.

The fact of the matter is that the T-TPLF and EFFORT elites are interested only in themselves, and no one else!

Today EFFORT is the “Endowment Fund to Rip-off of Ethiopia”.

In 2012, the “Federal First Instance Court at Lideta “ruled that one of EFFORT’s companies, Mega Entertainment Center, which was led by the widow of the late PM Meles Zenawi, Azeb Mesfin, has been running its business in a fraudulent manner by reporting more expenses than the actual and without paying value-added taxes collected from its customers during the preceding eight years.” There is a documented list of T-TPLF EFFORT business entities which today have a chokehold on the Ethiopian economy.

A couple of days ago, it was announced that the same Azeb Mesfin opened her “billion-dollar goldmine” in northern Ethiopia. That would make Azeb Mesfin the second African woman billionaire after Isabel Dos Santos, the daughter of the corrupt Angolan leader. Perhaps Azeb Mesfin is the poorest African billionaire as she told an interviewerin 2011.  She said she runs her household on a shoestring and that she “does not have a penny in her pocket. I give away everything I have.” That is the way Azeb Mesfin, the T-TPLF Mafia Queen became a billionaire!

The T-TPLF leaders are godfathers or heads of crime (Mafiosi) families. They use their party apparatuses, bureaucracies, military and police forces to maintain and perpetuate their corrupt financial empires.

The late Meles Zenawi was the mastermind who kept things going for the T-TPLF. When he died, he took the password with him and his minions over the past five years have been running around, literally, like a chicken with its head cut off. Those who survived him are nothing more than a bunch of bush yokels who have no idea what governance or administration is all about.

The point is simply this: The T-TPLF today is an empty barrel government. They talk loud about “national consensus”, “widening political space” and promise a whole boatload of nothings, but I can confidently say that if there was an organized and united opposition political force in Ethiopia today, they could simply walk in and take over the reins of government as did the TPLF itself back in 1991. This is a fact, not exaggeration!

Mafia bosses do not “mediate”, “negotiate” or “reconcile”.  They do whatever it takes to keep their criminal empire alive and thriving.

Fourth, the T-TPLF can read the handwriting on the wall all over the country: “Leave before sundown, or there will be showdown!”

The T-TPLF leaders may foolishly believe that they can cling to power simply by killing, jailing and massacring any and all opposition. They have tried that time and again and it has not worked. In fact, it has inspired more audacious defiance of T-TPLF rule and steeled the resolve of the people to free themselves from ethnic apartheid. If the T-TPLF bosses believe they can kill and massacre their way out of the mess they have created over the past 27 years, they are sorely mistaken. They believe their ace in the hole, their ultimate weapon, is their security and military forces. They are foolishly confident that the military is at their beck and call and will do their bidding at the snap of their fingers.

There is no doubt that the T-TPLF has complete and total monopoly over the officer corps in Ethiopia. According to a 2014 study, there were 64 “generals” in Ethiopia with the following ethnic distribution: 49 (“Tigrie”), 4 (“Amhara”), 8 (“Oromo”) 3 (“Agew”), 1 (”Mixed”) and 0 (SNNPR). However, the vast majority of the rank and file in the armed forces are “Amhara” and “Oromo”. How long will it be before the rank and file turns its AK-47s on its generals? How many millions of Ethiopians must the T-TPLF generals kill before they must drink from the same cup?

Are these the generals with whom “mediation”, “negotiation” and “reconciliation” could be had?

Let’s face facts. Better yet, let the T-TPLF face facts. The choice has never been clearer than now for the T-TPLF: Swiftly transition the country to democratic rule or take a chance on winning an impending and inevitable civil war to cling to power and continue to impose your rule with the barrel of AK-47s.

The T-TPLF has a very narrow window to cut a deal and save itself. But like sand through the hour glass, so are the numbered days of the T-TPLF.

As I explained in my February 2016 commentary, the T-TPLF today is a Beast with feet of clay. When gazed upon, the T-TPLF appears awesome, formidable and infinitely powerful. It has guns, tanks, rockets, planes and bombs. Though the T-TPLF has legs of iron, its feet are made of clay. The mighty T-TPLF has all the bayonets, tanks, guns and planes. But when groups of young people confronted the bayonets, tanks, guns and planes (helicopters), the T-TPLF was thrown into complete panic.

Do I not speak the truth?

Fifth, I find it very offensive to hear the reconciliation peddlers pontificating about the “reconciliation process”. I believe they speak out of turn. I do not believe in reconciliation stage-managed  by the elites inside or outside of Ethiopia. If there is going to be reconciliation, it must organically emanate and evolve organically from the people, the young people of Ethiopia who represent over 70 percent of the population and are paying the price in blood, sweat and tears. Any “reconciliation” effort that does not reflect the needs, demands, dreams and aspirations of the young people of Ethiopia is doomed to fail.

Why all the talk of “reconciliation” only makes me jittery and anxious

I am the accidental Ethiopian human rights activist. Until 2005, I was doing my own thing. Until 2005, my involvement in Ethiopian affairs largely consisted of editorial contributions to Ethiopian publications and occasional commentaries. I had written a couple of commentaries on the TPLF regime in the 1990s in the monthly “Ethiopian Review”. I have discussed my involvement in Ethiopian human rights advocacy in my June 2015 commentary in some detail.

Following the May 2005 parliamentary election in Ethiopia, Meles Zenawi, on June 6-8 and November 1-4, 2005, the military, police and security forces of the T-TPLF under the personal command and control of the late Meles Zenawi committed unspeakable crimes against humanity on hundreds of unarmed protesters exercising their constitutional right (Art. 30) to “assemble and to demonstrate together with others peaceably and unarmed, and to petition.”

I came to call those massacres, the “Meles Massacres”. Every November, I dedicate a commentary to remember the Meles Massacre Victims.

I resolved to get involved in Ethiopian human rights advocacy after the Meles Massacres hoping to gain a measure of justice for those victims and help prevent future massacres. I have never had any political ambition; indeed, on many occasions, I have expressed my contempt for those driven by political ambition. But for the Meles Massacres, it is unlikely that I would have been involved in any meaningful way in Ethiopia affairs at all.

Of course, lack of any political ambition has given me the privilege to speak my mind and speak my truth unburdened by the demands of political correctness or fear of criticism. I call it as I see it. I support my arguments with evidence and data. I am sure some will find my ideas provocative, challenging, outrageous and even offensive. Others will find them inspirational, stimulating and even fresh and unorthodox. But I do not write for political effect or expediency. I write for one reason only: To speak truth to power, to power abusers and misusers, to the power-hungry and power-thirsty and to the powerless.

When it comes to justice for the victims of the Meles Massacres and so many other massacres that have been committed by the T-TPLF over the past 27 years (and indeed even beyond that), I do not hold back, and I will stand my ground demanding the truth and justice for them.  In the slightly paraphrased lyrics of that old Tom Petty tune, “I won’t back down… I will stand my ground… I won’t let no one push me around… There ain’t no easy way out… I won’t back down… I will stand my ground… And I won’t back down…”

Justice for the massacre and torture victims of the T-TPLF is a non-negotiable issue for me. I have spent 12 years of my life – indeed committed 12 years of a labor of love — seeking justice and speaking on behalf of the massacre, detention and torture victims of the T-TPLF.

Justice for the T-TPLF victims specifically means to me exposition of the whole truth about each and every one of those who authorized the massacres, each and every one of those who directed the massacres and each and every one of those who committed the massacres before the Ethiopian people and court of world public opinion.  The same applies to torture and detention victims.

Justice for the victims means to me accountability for all suspected of involvement in crimes against humanity before an impartial court of law, with those accused given the highest levels of due process protections under international standards and the presence of international observers.

For those who may say I am just too obsessed about those who are long gone, and we should let bygones be bygones, I ask them simple questions: Would you be satisfied with “Let bygones be bygones if your loved ones were victims of T-TPLF massacres and crimes against humanity?” Do not the poor, the voiceless and defenseless victims of T-TPLF abuse of power deserve justice?

For those who say I am tilting at windmills and my efforts will not bear fruit, I say they are missing the point. As Elie Weisel observed in his book “Night”,

For the survivor who chooses to testify, it is clear: his duty is to bear witness for the dead and the living. He has no right to deprive future generations of a past that belongs to our collective memory. To forget would be not only dangerous but offensive; to forget the dead would be akin to killing them a second time. The witness has forced himself to testify. For the youth of today, for the children who will be born tomorrow. He does not want his past to become their future.

I make no apologies when I say I am obsessed with bringing out the truth about the massacres, tortures and abuse victims of the T-TPLF. It is that obsession that has driven me to speak out every week for the last 12 years, without missing a single week.

So, when I hear talk of reconciliation without truth-finding about T-TPLF crimes and abuses, that sounds to me like, “No justice for victims”.

Justice is based on truth. Falsehoods, avoiding the truth for the sake of political expediency and convenience provide no foundation for justice. As a lawyer, I know all too well that the truth is often elusive, subjective and conflicting. No one has a monopoly on truth. The truth, to the extent it can be found, must be discovered in an orderly and fair process.

So, I am serving notice to all who want to do “reconciliation” with the T-TPLF without truth-finding that I am prepared to fight you in the court of public opinion at every turn. I will not stand idle as justice for the T-TPLF massacre and torture victims is sacrificed on the altar of reconciliation and political convenience. The truth about the victims of T-TPLF crimes against humanity will not be forgotten, hidden away, bargained off or negotiated into oblivion.

I have always believed and said that history is like a train delayed. As I observed in my August 2016 commentary, the Justice Train has been long overdue in Ethiopia;  but I have been hearing the distant rumble of  that train for years.  Chugging silently.  Chugging slowly. Chugging relentlessly. Chugging unstoppably.  Chugging audaciously… I can see it entering the station.  But I don’t know who is aboard the train. Does the Ethiopian Justice Train carry the messengers of peace or the harbingers of civil war? I still don’t know the answer to this question.

It has taken 27 years for the Justice Train to arrive in Ethiopia. Such is the schedule of all Justice Trains.

South Africa’s Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) was established to “bear witness to, record, and in some cases grant amnesty to the perpetrators of crimes relating to human rights violations, as well as reparation and rehabilitation.” The TRC processed a total of 7,112 amnesty applications, of which 5,392 were refused and 849 granted.

The victims of former Chilean dictator Gen. Augusto Pinochet’s regime eventually got restorative justice through truth-finding.

The victims of Argentina’s Dirty War conducted by the military got “truth and partial justice”.

Hosni Mubarak, Egypt’s dictator for over three decades, his sons, his interior minister and others faced justice in an Egyptian court only to have the ends of justice subverted.

Hissène Habré,  former president of Chad, who was deposed in 1990 finally received life in prison in April 2017 for torture and murder after decades-long fight for justice for his victims.

Reinhold Hanning, an SS guard at Auschwitz from 1942 to 1944, was convicted of facilitating the killing of at least 170,000 people at age 95 in June 2016.

There are dozens of prosecutions of suspected war criminals and concentration camp guards over the age of 90 underway today in Germany.

Prosecuting these suspects over 70 years after the fact is not about putting decrepit old men in jail. It is about building a national consciousness about the scale of the war crimes.

It does not matter how long it takes but justice must be done for the hundreds of thousands of innocent citizens who suffered crimes against humanity at the hands of the T-TPLF. It is important to hold their abusers accountable so others in the future can learn that they cannot commit crimes against humanity with impunity and to raise and maintain a national consciousness about crimes against humanity in Ethiopia.

Accountability for crimes against humanity and the need to build a national consciousness and public awareness on crimes against humanity is how I embarked on my 12-year odyssey of Speaking Truth to Power.

So, when I hear talk of “reconciliation” detached from talk of truth, I become upset, disquieted and rattled. Truth be told, I get sick to the stomach.

But many of those who talk of “reconciliation” in Ethiopia today conveniently overlook truth. Truth and reconciliation are two side of the same coin. There can be no reconciliation without truth. Reconciliation that does not grow out of truth is a travesty, a joke, political drama, a complete waste of time.

When Bishop Desmond Tutu was appointed co-chair of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission in 1995, he said,

I hope that the work of the Commission, by opening the wounds to cleanse them, will thereby stop them from festering. We cannot be facile and say bygones be bygones, because they will not be bygones and will return to haunt us. True reconciliation is never cheap, for it is based on forgiveness which is costly. Forgiveness in turn depends on repentance, which has to be based on an acknowledgement of what was done wrong, and therefore on the disclosure of the truth. You cannot forgive what you do not know.”

I agree fully with Bishop Tutu.

There can be no reconciliation without the truth of T-TPLF crimes exposed to the Ethiopian people and before the court of world public opinion.

There can be no reconciliation without the T-TPLF taking full responsibility, not merely by throwing some of its leaders under the bus, but as an organization, for its crimes.

There can be no reconciliation without the victims of T-TPLF state terror, abuse and mistreatment having their day in a public forum facing and confronting their abusers and torturers.

Seeking truth does not mean seeking revenge or retribution.

I do not believe in revenge or retribution.

Martin Luther King said, “Man must evolve for all human conflict a method which rejects revenge, aggression and retaliation. The foundation of such a method is love.”

Mandela said, “I am not the only one who did not want revenge. Almost all my colleagues in prison did not want revenge, because there is no time to do anything else except to try and save your people.”

It has been said that “Man is wolf to man.” It is revenge, retribution and vindictiveness that transforms man into wolf.

Mahatma Gandhi said, “An eye for an eye leaves the whole world blind.” I do not ever want to see Ethiopia full of blind people. I want to see an Ethiopia blinded by the light of truth.

Questioning and urging caution in dialogue and discussions about reconciliation is not an implicit call for retribution.

Forgiveness and dispensation to wrong-doers who are willing to tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth about their crimes on a case by case basis is appropriate to temper justice with mercy. But there can be no blanket amnesty for pretended avoidance of imagined harms.

Truth and reconciliation is the only way we can realize the dream of a beautiful Ethiopia.

Nelson Mandela said, “If there are dreams about a beautiful South Africa, there are also roads that lead to their goal. Two of these roads could be named Goodness and Forgiveness.”

So, it must be for Ethiopia.

My aim here is not to rain on the “Reconciliation Parade”. My aim is to drill down to the bedrock and inform the Ethiopian people, particularly the youth, who have laid their lives on the line to liberate Ethiopia from T-TPLF tyrannical rule.

I owe it to Ethiopia’s young people to know there can be no reconciliation without truth-finding.

To be continued… Part II, Why I believe reconciliation (without truth-finding) with the T-TPLF is impossible

Ethiopia’s youth united can never be defeated!

Ethiopiawinet TODAY, Ethiopiawinet TOMORROW, Ethiopiawinet FOREVER!

Professor Alemayehu G. Mariam teaches political science at California State University, San Bernardino. His teaching areas include American constitutional law, civil rights law, judicial process, American and California state governments, and African politics. He has published two volumes on American constitutional law, including American Constitutional Law: Structures and Process (1994) and American Constitutional Law: Civil Liberties and Civil Rights (1998). He is the Senior Editor of the International Journal of Ethiopian Studies, a leading scholarly journal on Ethiopia. For the last several years, Prof. Mariam has written weekly web commentaries on Ethiopian human rights and African issues that are widely read online. He blogged on the Huffington post at  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alemayehu-g-mariam/ and later on open.salon until that blogsite shut down in March 2015.

Prof. Mariam played a central advocacy role in the passage of H.R. 2003 (Ethiopia Democracy and Accountability Act of 2007)  in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2007. Prof. Mariam also practices in the areas of criminal defense and civil litigation. In 1998, he argued a major case in the California Supreme Court involving the right against self-incrimination in People v. Peevy, 17 Cal. 4th 1184, cert. denied, 525 U.S. 1042 (1998)  which helped clarify longstanding Miranda rights issues in California criminal procedure. For several years, Prof. Mariam had a weekly public channel public affairs television show in Southern California called “In the Public Interest”. Prof. Mariam received his Ph.D. from the University of Minnesota in 1984, and his J.D. from the University of Maryland in 1988.

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January 14, 2018 (KHARTOUM) – The Sudanese President Sunday has received a verbal message from Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn pertaining to bilateral relations and ways to enhance joint cooperation in the various fields.

The message was delivered by Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister Workneh Gebeyehu who paid a one-day visit to Khartoum on Sunday.

Gebeyehu’s visit comes amid heightened tensions in the region over border disputes, military alliances and the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

Speaking at a joint press conference with his Sudanese counterpart, Gebeyehu said his visit comes within the framework of the strategic relationship between the two countries.

He pointed out that the bilateral relations between Sudan and Ethiopia are based upon the mutual exchange of benefits particularly in the political and economic domains.

The Ethiopian top diplomat said he discussed with Ghandour the recent developments in the region, stressing his country’s readiness to cooperate with Sudan to promote regional security and stability.

He added the regional issues must be addressed through negotiations and dialogue, saying any regional escalation would be met with dialogue and peaceful means.

Regarding the issue of the GERD, Gebeyehu said it is a trilateral issue and would be resolved within the framework of the agreement reached among the three countries.

He pointed out that the upcoming visit of the Ethiopian premier to Egypt comes within the framework of the bilateral relations, saying the visit would promote the joint political and economic issues between the two countries.

Desalegn will arrive in Cairo on Monday. He is expected to discuss with the Egyptian side the latest developments in the GERD file and put forth Ethiopia’s response to Egypt’s proposal for the participation of the World Bank as a technical partner in the tripartite technical committee on GERD.

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HOUSTON 

Bazu Worku held up three fingers as he headed down the final stretch of the Houston Marathon.

Worku, trailing Ethiopian countryman Yitayal Atnafu by 23 seconds with about two miles left, turned on the jets Sunday to win the event for the third straight time.

“Yitayal, my competitor, we train together,” Worku said through a translator. “I know that he is a very strong person and trains very well . When he put so much into his pace after 25 kilometers, then I realized he cannot finish with that pace. Then I applied my strategy.”

Biruktayit Degefa won the women’s race and two-time Olympian Molly Huddle broke the record for the fastest half-marathon by an American woman.

It was 34 degrees for the start of the race and Worku won with a time of 2 hours, 8 minutes, 30 seconds. With victories in 2013 and 2014, he became the third runner to win the race three times, joining David Cheruiyot of Kenya and Stephen Ndungu of Ethiopia.

“It was exhilarating,” Worku said.

This is the third straight year Atnafu finished second at the Houston Marathon.

Degefa captured her second women’s title at the Houston Marathon, finishing with a time of 2:24:51. She has competed in this race five years in a row.

“When I come to Houston I feel a special joy,” Degefa said. “I consider Houston as my hometown. As if I’m coming to a family. These five years, I know Houston very well. I come very prepared and I knew I would win today.”

An Ethiopian runner has won the woman’s title for 12 straight years.

Huddle crossed the half-marathon finish line in 1:07:25. Her time, a personal best, broke the previous record by 9 seconds, set by Deena Kastor in 2006.

Jake Robertson of New Zealand won the men’s half-marathon in 1:00:01, tying a personal record. He finished 39 seconds off the race record.

“Since winning the race, everybody’s reminding me of the time, I get more and more upset with the time,” Robertson said with a laugh. “Thinking about the caliber of the field I beat today, I’m ecstatic still. It was amazing racing and the way I felt doing it.”

Ethiopia’s Ruti Aga won the women’s half-marathon in a personal-best 1:06:39, beating her previous mark of 1:08:07.

“I was happy that I achieved that, in the future I hope to do even better,” Aga said through a translator.

Huddle crossed in a personal-best 1:07:25, topping her previous mark of 1:07:41 in 2016. She broke the American record by nine seconds, a mark set by Deena Kastor in 2006.

“Just to be in the company of Deena Kastor, who had such a great marathon career, gives me a lot of confidence,” Huddle said. “It’s a really special thing. I really think the women’s marathoners and half-marathoners in the (United States) are so good right now, I still don’t feel like that record is out of reach.”

“I moved it down a little bit but I still think there’s a couple of women that can gun for it,” she said.

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Betoch DW Interview with Artist Nibert Gelaw (Eke Manchilot)

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ADDIS ABABA (Reuters) – Ethiopian authorities have dropped charges against a senior opposition leader and hundreds of others who had been jailed for involvement in unrest that gripped the country in 2015 and 2016, the country’s attorney general said on Monday.

Hundreds have been killed in violence in the Horn of Africa country since protests first erupted in its central Oromiya province over allegations of land grabs.

Several dissident politicians have since been jailed having been charged with involvement in terrorism and collusion with the secessionist Oromo Liberation Front, which the government has branded a terrorist group.

Facing mounting unrest, Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn announced earlier this month that jailed politicians would be released and those facing trial would have their cases dismissed in a bid to foster reconciliation.

On Monday, Attorney General Getachew Ambaye told journalists that 528 people had so far been selected for clemency, including Merera Gudina – leader of the opposition group Oromo Federalist Congress who was arrested in late 2015.

Getachew said criteria for their selection involved taking into account proof that the suspects did not take part in actions that led to killings and severe injury, damaging infrastructure, and “conspiracy to dismantle the constitutional order by force”.

“All 528 will be released within two months,” he said.

Merera was arrested after a trip to Brussels to meet members of the European Parliament, and formally charged with attempting to “dismantle or disrupt social, economic and political activity”.

He was also accused of backing a secessionist group Addis Ababa labels a terrorist movement, as well as flouting guidelines on a state of emergency that was imposed for nine months during his trip to Belgium.

Nearly 700 people died in one bout of unrest during months of protests in 2015 and 2016, according to a parliament-mandated investigation.

Rallies over land rights broadened into demonstrations over political restrictions and perceived rights abuses, before spreading into the northern Amhara region and – to a smaller extent – in its SNNP province in the south.

In recent months, a spate of ethnic clashes have also taken place. Dozens of people were killed in several bouts of violence between ethnic Oromos and Somalis in the Oromiya region last year.

Hailemariam made his announcement after the ruling EPRDF coalition concluded a weeks-long meeting meant to thrash out policies to address grievances.

The unrest had triggered growing friction within the party. Some high-ranking members had subsequently submitted their resignation, while officials have openly squabbled with each other over the cause of clashes.

Getachew said more pardons and releases are set to follow.

Ethiopia, sandwiched between volatile Somalia and Sudan, is often accused by rights groups of using security concerns as an excuse  to stifle dissent and media freedoms. It denies the charge.

Source: Reuters

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Hiber Radio Ethiopian News January 15, 2018

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Opposition leader Dr. Merera Gudina, pictured above briefing the European parliament in November 2016 prior to his arrest, is one of hundreds of prisoners expected to be pardoned this week, Bloomberg reports. (Photo: Facebook)

Bloomberg

Ethiopia Pledges to Release 528 People in First Round of Pardons

Ethiopia said it’s preparing to release 528 detainees including the chairman of an opposition party, state-affiliated media reported, in what would be the first round of pardons announced by the government this month.

The detainees, 115 of whom are being held by federal authorities, will be released Wednesday and include Merera Gudina of the Oromo Federalist Congress, Fana Broadcasting Corp. cited Attorney General Getachew Ambaye as saying. The Ethiopian Broadcasting Corp. reported the initial pardons would involve people from the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ Region, one of Ethiopia’s nine ethnically based regional states, and other regions will follow.

Ethiopia has been rocked by more than two years of sporadic, often deadly protests and implemented a temporary state of emergency after a spate of attacks on foreign businesses. The unrest has damaged the Horn of Africa country’s reputation as an investment destination and posed one of the biggest challenges to the ruling coalition since it came to power in the early 1990s.

Ethiopia’s Communications Ministry said in a Jan. 4 statement that “some members of political parties and other individuals” suspected of committing crimes or those convicted “will be pardoned or their cases interrupted based on an assessment that will be made so as to establish a national consensus and widen the political sphere.”

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ESAT DC Daily News Jan 15 2018

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Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn has held talks in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, before heading to Egypt for a four-day state visit. The leader is trying to defuse tension over a giant hydroelectric dam that Ethiopia is building on the Blue Nile.

Ethiopia aims to be the largest producer of hydroelectric power in Africa.

But Egypt, which depends largely on the Nile’s water, is deeply concerned. It says Ethiopia is trying to control the flow of the Nile, which could threaten its water security.

Al Jazeera

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ESAT DC Daily News Tue 16 Jan 2018

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By Dawit Giorgis

The most militarized zone in the world is Kashmir, Northern India. India and Pakistan claim the land. That is one of the time bombs Britain left when it was forced to leave its colonies. It has been one of the most volatile regions on earth for over 50 years. After being partitioned between the two countries in 1947, a boundary and a ceasefire was agreed and a border dividing the two parts established what is known as The Line of Control.   China also administers part of the state.  The place is known as a major flash point and dangerous, particularly because it involves three nuclear powers  (China, Pakistan and India) and all the others who have a stake in the region. (Ethiopian Forces have been in Kashmir in 1950 as UN Military Observers.)   The Guinness world record also calls Kashmir region as “ the largest militarized territorial dispute on the planet, worlds highest battlefield, highest military base.”

This record is being broken in the Horn of Africa today, as the most militarized and complex security region and a region with the largest number of foreign military bases in the world, except that none of the countries of the region have nuclear capacities. However three of the countries with military bases in the region are nuclear powers. (China, USA and France)

The key to regional instability in the Greater Horn is Ethiopia. Instability in the other countries can be contained but continued instability and civil unrest in Ethiopia will destabilize the entire region and Africa in an unprecedented way. Internal conflict can easily spill over to neighboring countries.  Mass exodus from Ethiopia and the affected regions can bring about the worst humanitarian crisis the world has yet to see. Europe, the Middle East and the USA will be affected in more than one way. Civil unrest and collapse of the state in Ethiopia could invite a proxy war.  It could create crisis in the Red Sea coastal countries. Extremists can take this opportunity and take actions that would further destabilize the country and the region. Once a country submerges into this kind of sinkhole it will be extremely difficult to restore peace like we have seen in Somalia Syria, Yemen and Iraq. That is why all eyes in the region are on Ethiopia. The Ethiopian people and the regime should be aware of the consequences of failing to bring about peaceful change.  No body else should and can do this for them. The forces around them have their own agendas.

The Greater Horn is known to have 7 countries (Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, Southern Sudan, Eritrea, Somalia and Djibouti) Ethiopia used to be seen as a regional powerhouse because it has the second largest population in Africa and next to Algeria and Egypt it has the third largest army in Africa[1].

Though Egypt and Yemen are not part of the Greater Horn  they are however part of the security complex. They are all connected through the Nile (Sudan, South Sudan, Egypt and Kenya) or the Red Sea, which is the strategic body of water linking the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean through Bab Al-Madeb, a Straight, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Sea.  They call it the “choke point”; because much of the world’s commerce goes through this maritime route.  At one point, when Somali pirates ruled the sea, the area was called the most dangerous maritime zone in the world. Now it has been replaced by the Gulf of Guinea. Those who control the Horn of Africa control a major chunk of the world’s economies.  “How long would the EU economies be able to hold out without the energy supplies from the Persian Gulf or the vital Asian imports?”  asks the Foreign Policy Journal[2]

The importance of Yemen in this cannot be understated. Yemen lies along the Red Sea with a coastline of 1900 kms.  Saudi Arabia’s s interest in the region is controlling the Red Sea through the coastal states. If it can control Yemen it controls the entire western coastline of the Red Sea. For Egypt, if it can have influence on Sudan and Eritrea it would mean controlling much of the Eastern Coast of the Red Sea, which means greater influence on Ethiopia.  Israel also has a stake in all this iand for good reasons related to its security.

In the early 70s and 80s there was great energy spent in establishing a pan Arab ideology with the aim of unifying the Arab nations. Since then religious and nationalist factions with in the Arab world have defeated Arab nationalism and the idea of making the Red Sea an Arab lake is no more realistic. Instead Saudi Arabia is playing that role together with the new Gulf  alliance that it has created; hence we see today that alliance deeply involved in the proxy war in Yemen. The actual war is between Iran and the Gulf Alliance; between Sunni sand Shias for control of the strategic region.

The UAE has been building its military infrastructure in Eritrea’s port of Assab and it has conducted operations against Yemen from this base. This military base goes beyond its interest to launch operations on Yemen. It indicates UAE’s ambition in the region. It includes naval docking facility, renovations of the airport and barracks for the personnel.   Saudi Arabia is also using this base.

The UAE’s has also established controversial military base in Somaliland, which could become operational within the very near future. Somaliland is officially part of Somalia but has been seeking recognition since it declared independence. The base is in Berbera, 100km North East of the capital, Hargeisa, and UAE ships have already started docking at its deep-water port.[3]

Qatar has pulled out its troops from Eritrea-Djibouti border where it was acting as peacekeeping force, because of the dispute it has with UAE and Saudi Arabia.  Eritrea has sided with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Alliance fighting in Yemen.

Unconfirmed reports state Egyptian troops have arrived in Eritrea according to Middle East Monitor even though the Eritrean government has fiercely denied this. . Sudan is clearly disturbed by this move. “Sudan’s national army has sent forces to this area to protect Sudan’s security. We have information that some entities are targeting us,” he said after meeting his Ethiopian counterpart in Khartoum. Sudan closed its border with its eastern neighbor Eritrea  and sent troops to the frontier amid reports that Egypt had deployed troops in Eritrea. Khartoum also recalled its ambassador to Egypt following the reports.

However there have been exchange of visits by the two heads of states and there are no details. This warm relationship between Egypt and Eritrea have to do a lot with strained relationships both countries have with Sudan and the worsening political situation in Ethiopia and Egypt’s challenge to the construction of the renaissance dam on the Nile.

Historically Sudan has been an ally of Egypt, which had great influence both in the internal and external polices of successive governments in Sudan. The situation has changed for two main reasons; the ouster of the Muslim Brotherhood from the political scene of Egypt which Sudan has supported and Sudan’s approval of the construction of the renaissance dam.

Eritrea has been supporting the Darfur opposition movements and in fact Darfur’s opposition head quarters are based in Asmara. Eritrea has always participated in the international effort to bring peace in Darfur. Eritrea and South Sudan have a good relationship and to this extent the respective governments have made many public statements. There are many Eritrean entrepreneurs operating in South Sudan.

South Sudan and Egypt have reached a military cooperation agreement. As a result Egypt has began sending its troops to South Sudan. [4]

On Nov. 16, 2017, after four consecutive meetings with all concerned parties, the Cairo “Declaration of Unification” of Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) was signed at the headquarters of the Egyptian General Intelligence under the auspices of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and President of Uganda Museveni. The parties agreed that the General Intelligence would follow up on the implementation of the items included in the agreement, without disclosing more details.[5]

This alliance with Egypt worries Sudan and should worry Ethiopia as well. It is more directed against Ethiopia because on two occasions before and after the signing of this declaration the president of Egypt stated “ …we are capable of protecting our national security and water which to us is a question of national security…water is a matter of life or death and no one can touch Egypt’s share of water.”

It seems now that Egypt, South Sudan, Uganda and Eritrea have a common agenda. Egypt’s interest is the uninterrupted flow of the Nile from Ethiopia, South Sudan and Sudan. The waters of the White Nile that flow through South Sudan do not affect the dam under construction like all the other upstream states (Burundi, DR Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda) because they have their own hydro electric ambitions and therefore cannot oppose Ethiopia’s project. But there are other issues that concern Ethiopia. The 883 kms  stretch of border, where there are illegal firearms trafficking, cross border activities and the influx of refugees from South Sudan which has frequently triggered disputes between South Sudan and Ethiopia.  There are 5000 Ethiopian peace keeping forces in   Sudan, in the region of Abei, the disputed area between South Sudan and Sudan where there is regular cross border raids and refugee flow.

In December of last year Sudan and Russia signed a military cooperation agreement stating that Sudan needs protection from an American “hybrid war “by upgrading its armed forces and perhaps installing a Russian military base along Sudan’s coast line on the Red Sea. The setting up of a base in the Red Sea would give Russia a regional stake and balance the forces, which are increasingly more aligned with the West and enable Russia to position itself incase there is conflict between any of the parties with Ethiopia.[6]

Turkey has been consistent in its relationship with Somalia since 2011 when the President visited Somalia. Turkey’s business in Somalia has flourished since then and its relationship with successive governments in Mogadishu has been solid.  “Turkey has opened its largest overseas military base in Somalia, cementing its relationship with the war-torn nation and strengthening its strategic place in the African continent. The $50 million base ……..will train more than 10,000 soldiers. The move is part of an effort to institutionalize and restructure the police and military services, battle the terrorist group al-Shabaab, and help expand the government’s authority into more towns and regions.”  The involvement of Turkey is welcome by Somalia since the deadline for the withdrawal of African Union Forces is scheduled for 2020. [7]

Turkey is the new player in the region.  Turkish relationship with Saudi Arabia and UAE has been strained since the Arab Spring, which Turkey had supported. Egypt and Turkey’s relationship have soured since the  ouster of the Muslim Brotherhood from Egyptian politics.  Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan received the high order of State of Sudan medal  from President Omar al-Bashir in Khartoum on December 24, 2017.  This new relationship between Sudan and Turkey is seen as a setback to the ongoing efforts to normalize relationships between the two countries. Latest tension between Sudan and Egypt was sparked by an agreement between Khartoum and Ankara during this visit.  Sudan has entered an agreement with Turkey to work together in the fight against terror in East Africa. The agreement signed allows Turkey to have military base in the Red Sea, in Sudanese territorial waters.

Djibouti has suddenly become the most attractive strategic location for the major powers. The reasons being:

• Djibouti’s geo strategic position and its stability in a very unstable environment
• Djibouti handles 90% of landlocked Ethiopia’s maritime trade
• Djibouti is close to multiple conflict zones in Africa and Middle East including Somalia, Yemen…Syria, Iraq.
• Djibouti is a major hub for counter terrorism operation
• Djibouti is close to Suez Canal, world’s busiest maritime route
• Djibouti is a member of the Saudi led coalition fighting in Yemen.

Today Djibouti is the home of several military bases. The USA has the   largest base in Africa at the former French Base Camp Lemonier. France remains with a strengthened contingency.  China has its first military base outside its region. Japan has its first military base since the Second World War.  Recently Djibouti welcomed the construction of Saudi military base on its territory, which has been in progress since 2016.

Amongst all these developments Ethiopia is a simple spectator as it loses its position as a regional power. The regime has become a paper tiger, consumed with its internal rebellion and fighting for its very survival. The Arabs and particularly Saudi Arabia have become the regional power brokers in the Horn of Africa, fulfilling their dreams since their establishment as states.

“ Worried that the United States was withdrawing from its role as security guarantor for the wider region, it (Saudi Arabia) resolved to build up its armed forces and project its power into strategic hinterlands and sea lanes to the north and south. In practice, that has meant winning over less powerful countries along the African coast of the Red Sea — Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, and Somalia — a region that Ethiopia has sought to place within its sphere of influence.

The Saudi presence along the African Red Sea coast has grown more sharply pronounced since its March 2015 military intervention in Yemen, which drew in Egypt as part of a coalition of Sunni Arab states battling Iran-backed Houthi rebels. The coalition obtained combat units from Sudan and Eritrea, and scrambled to secure the entire African shore of the Red Sea. Then in January of this year — under pressure from Saudi Arabia — Djibouti, Somalia, and Sudan all cut diplomatic ties with Iran. By far the most significant of these was Sudan, which has had long-standing political and military ties with Tehran. For years, Iranian warships called at Port Sudan, and Iranian clandestine supplies to the Palestinian militant group Hamas passed freely along Sudan’s Red Sea coast (occasionally intercepted by Israeli jet fighters). Now Sudan is part of the Saudi-led coalition pummeling the Iran-backed Houthis.

But the most important geopolitical outcome of the Saudi-led Yemen intervention has been the rehabilitation of Eritrea, which capitalized on the war to escape severe political and economic isolation. After it gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993, Eritrea fought wars with each of its three land neighbors — Djibouti, Sudan, and Ethiopia. It also fought a brief war with Yemen over the disputed Hanish Islands in the Red Sea in 1995, after which it declined to reestablish diplomatic relationships.[8]

Poverty ridden, insecure, unstable and dysfunctional states  with  strategic location or resources  are usually the ones that ignite regional conflict and proxy wars.  In the Greater Horn it is going to be Ethiopia. Unlike the Western countries which have anointed Ethiopia as a stable country with the fastest growing economy in the continent, the facts are clearer now than ever: Ethiopia is a failed state nearing complete collapse. The failed states index, now known as fragile states index shows consistently, since 2007 that Ethiopia is one of the least dysfunctional states in the world. The failed states index prepared by the reputable Fund for Peace institute shows: 2007-17^th, 2008-16^th, ,  2009 16^th, 2010 -15th, 2011-20^th, 2012-17^th, 2013-19^th, 2104-19^th, 2015-19^th. 2017-15^th

According to Fund for Peace, “Failed state or fragile state means that the central government is weak, ineffective and has little control over its territories.“ All the major indicators show that Ethiopia has consistently been one of the most fragile states (failed states) in the world. All other indexes  including the United nations (UNCTAD) and Business Insider rank Ethiopia one of the 15^th poorest countries on earth. The UNDP human development index still ranks Ethiopia 173^rd of the 186 in the latest human development index.  Over 77 % of the people live below the poverty line and over 44% live in less than 2 dollars a day with a 30% illiteracy rate.  Unemployment in the cities is as high as 80% and 38 % of children are underweight. It has experienced severe political instability for several years now and the government has lost control of its people. It has one of the largest number of political prisoners in Africa and it has the largest number of journalists in person in the world next to Iran. It is the most censored country in Africa. In internet use Ethiopia is one of the four least users in the world  (the rest are Somalia, Niger and Eritrea) with only 11.6 % of the people using internet.[9]  Ethiopia is among the 9 least mobile telephone users in the world [10]  Djibouti does better than Ethiopia in proportion to its population.

Let us ask ourselves now, and we don’t have to be economists, degree holders or highly educated people. How can a country be all the above and at the same time be the fastest growing economy in the world or in Africa? It just does not make sense. Those who give this fake reports and tell it and retell it on the media are those western powers who have a stake in the status quo not in the truth or in  the well being of the people. They know the method they use to reach to their conclusion is flawed and that they are using the fake numbers that government is providing them. This so called growth has not affected the  great majority of Ethiopians who are as poor as they were for hundreds of years. The only difference is that they are more oppressed now than ever. Now the truth is catching up and Ethiopia is unraveling.

What are all these bases around Ethiopia doing? They are the eyes and the ears of the stakeholders. If Ethiopia implodes or explodes every country in the Horn, plus their neighboring countries, and the Arab world, the Red sea, Indian Ocean Bab Al Mandeb and Israel are going to be directly affected. That is why we see realignment of forces unfolding in the region Every alliance will want to influence the development of events in Ethiopia to its favor. If there is a smooth transition Ethiopia can come out glorious once again.   But if the TPLF/EPRDF does not see a way out then it may chooses to dig deep in and Ethiopia may unravel with possible proxy war. The manner in which the struggle is being conducted in the country will determine this.

The US does not seem to get the point yet. It seems to be pleased with the release of political prisoners and sees this gesture as a path way to transformation. As always, it is making a grand mistake. It is not reading the people. The people are not asking for reform of this government. They want to get rid of this government and thorough a fair and free election with neutral international observers establish a democratic government which guarantees all the freedom that they have lost for 27 years.  They want a transitional government established to oversee a smooth transition. If we hear the people, their message is loud and clear. The time when reform was possible is long gone.  The US and Europe don’t quiet get this. And then when the situation goes into uncharted territory and the conflict escalates to affect their interest they start scrambling and end up in a hotchpotch   arrangement like the one done in London by Herman Cohen, which ended up with not far sighted decision that brought this country to the situation we are in. ( Mr. Cohen admitted that it was a mistake after the damage has been done) Ethiopian people will not allow this to happen again.  The people are taking full control of the unfolding events in Ethiopia. No one faction is in control. It will be a change that will come on the peoples terms and not the terms of any faction or the European and American politicians.

The countries around Ethiopia will interfere and fight amongst themselves and with Ethiopians only if they realize that people are disunited and the country as a whole is not rallying around one banner and one political agenda. If Ethiopians can hold on to the kind of unified pressure that people see to day, there is a possibility that a transitional government can be established under the terms of the people. The option of not doing so will be grave, with all friends and foes developing strategies of intervention in their own interest. If this is allowed to happen Ethiopians will be fighting not their own wars but the wars of the foreign stakeholders.

Next to Algeria and Egypt Ethiopia has the third largest army in Africa[11]

It is the most populated country in the Horn of Africa with a history of having never been colonized. It has 40% of the area of Djbouti, Eritrea and Somalia and 85% of the population of the region.  Yet Ethiopia to day is not the regional power. It has lost any respect it had in the region. Even Djibouti whose economy entirely depends on Ethiopia is flexing its muscles and asserting independence. Its relationship with Ethiopia is based on its own terms. It seems that Ethiopia is more dependent on Djibouti than vice versa. Somalia is slowly coming out of it civil war and has kicked out Ethiopian forces as its alignment with Arab world gives it more confidence. Eritrea is slowly coming out of its cocoon and as we see these days, it has already started preparing for transition in Ethiopia. Egypt and the Arab world are strongly behind it. Egypt has never been as belligerent as it has been.   It is beating the war drums and in diplomacy it is ahead by taking away all the influence Ethiopia had in the region. South Sudan despite its proximity to Ethiopia and the support it got from Ethiopia in the struggle for its independence, is aligning  itself with adversaries of Ethiopian regime.  Ethiopia is at its weakest. Battered by years of rebellion, corruption and ethnic politics and a fake economic growth that is now unraveling, it is most vulnerable to its enemies now than ever.

Ethiopia has a history behind it. It has a resilient people who can fight back and control their own destiny. Ethiopia  has a youth  that will not allow the agenda of a minority government to destroy its country. It has a sturdy and angry youth population that has defied the 27 year Ethiopian style apartheid policies of TPLF and united the fractured ethnic groups. It is a youth that is fired up and determined to prove once again that nothing comes between it and victory.  With a unified peaceful struggle Ethiopians can establish freedom and democracy, repel any external aggression and guarantee peace and  stability in the region.

Let it be.

Dawit W Giorgid

[1] www.globalpfirepower.com

[2] “https://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2011/11/19/choke-point-bab-el-mandeb-understanding-the-strategically-critical-horn-of-africa/

[3] https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/news/2017/2/13/somaliland-agrees-to-uae-military-base-in-northern-port[3]

[4] https://www.almonitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/12/egypt-foreign-policy-south-sudan-africa-arab.html

[5] https://www.almonitor.com/pulse/originals/2017/12/egypt-foreign-policy-south-sudan-africa-arab.html

[6] https://qz.com/1093011/turkey-opens-its-largest-overseas-military-base-in-somalia-to-train-somali-soldiers/

[7] https://qz.com/1093011/turkey-opens-its-largest-overseas-military-base-in-somalia-to-train-somali-soldiers/

[8] https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/03/17/africas-700-billion-problem-waiting-to-happen-ethiopia-horn-of-africa/

[9] https://photius.com/rankings/2017 of June 30, 2017

[10] www.worldatlas.com/articles

[11] www.globalpfirepower.com

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Ap

Cairo – Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn said on Thursday at talks in Cairo they were opposed to any “conflict” over the sharing of Nile waters.

Sisi said that Desalegn’s visit was “a clear sign for our peoples and the entire world of our political will and determination to overcome all obstacles” between the two countries.

The Nile should serve as “a source of cohesion… and development, not of conflict” with Ethiopia, which is building a controversial dam that has raised Egyptian concerns over water supplies, he said.

“We agreed that we must make sure that this great river never becomes an object of competition, mistrust and conflict,” Desalegn told a joint news conference.

Sisi said Ethiopia was not aiming “to harm the interests of Egypt”, while reiterating Cairo’s call for the World Bank to serve as a neutral interlocutor between the two countries on technical issues related to the Nile.

Egypt relies almost totally on the Nile for irrigation and drinking water, and says it has “historic rights” to the river, guaranteed by treaties from 1929 and 1959.

Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam project on the Blue Nile, launched in 2012, is designed to feed a hydroelectric project to produce 6 000 megawatts of power, equal to six nuclear-powered plants.

The Blue and the White Nile tributaries converge in Sudan’s capital Khartoum and from there run north through Egypt to the Mediterranean.

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